Search results for: Markov Decision Process

Authors: Sunusi N., Kresna A. J., Islamiyati A., Raupong

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Hazard rate estimation is one of the important topics in forecasting earthquake occurrence. Forecasting earthquake occurrence is a part of the statistical seismology where the main subject is the point process. Generally, earthquake hazard rate is estimated based on the point process likelihood equation called the Hazard Rate Likelihood of Point Process (HRLPP). In this research, we have developed estimation method, that is hazard rate single decrement HRSD. This method was adapted from estimation method in actuarial studies. Here, one individual associated with an earthquake with inter event time is exponentially distributed. The information of epicenter and time of earthquake occurrence are used to estimate hazard rate. At the end, a case study of earthquake hazard rate will be given. Furthermore, we compare the hazard rate between HRLPP and HRSD method.

Keywords: Earthquake forecast, Hazard Rate, Likelihood point process, Point process.

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Authors: S. Turkan

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In this paper, the Turkey’s Top 500 Industrial Enterprises data in 2014 were analyzed by data envelopment analysis. Data envelopment analysis is used to detect efficient decision-making units such as universities, hospitals, schools etc. by using inputs and outputs. The decision-making units in this study are enterprises. To detect efficient enterprises, some financial ratios are determined as inputs and outputs. For this reason, financial indicators related to productivity of enterprises are considered. The efficient foreign weighted owned capital enterprises are detected via super efficiency model. According to the results, it is said that Mercedes-Benz is the most efficient foreign weighted owned capital enterprise in Turkey.

Keywords: Data envelopment analysis, super efficiency, financial ratios, BCC model.

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Authors: Amit Kumar, Pushpinder Singh, Parampreet Kaur, Amarpreet Kaur

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Ranking of fuzzy numbers play an important role in decision making, optimization, forecasting etc. Fuzzy numbers must be ranked before an action is taken by a decision maker. In this paper, with the help of several counter examples it is proved that ranking method proposed by Chen and Chen (Expert Systems with Applications 36 (2009) 6833-6842) is incorrect. The main aim of this paper is to propose a new approach for the ranking of generalized trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. The main advantage of the proposed approach is that the proposed approach provide the correct ordering of generalized and normal trapezoidal fuzzy numbers and also the proposed approach is very simple and easy to apply in the real life problems. It is shown that proposed ranking function satisfies all the reasonable properties of fuzzy quantities proposed by Wang and Kerre (Fuzzy Sets and Systems 118 (2001) 375-385).

Keywords: Ranking function, Generalized trapezoidal fuzzy numbers

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Authors: Satean Tunyasrirut, Tianchai Suksri, Arjin Numsomran, Supan Gulpanich, Kitti Tirasesth

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This paper presents the approach to design the Auto- Tuning PID controller for interactive Water Level Process using integral step response. The Integral Step Response (ISR) is the method to model a dynamic process which can be done easily, conveniently and very efficiently. Therefore this method is advantage for design the auto tune PID controller. Our scheme uses the root locus technique to design PID controller. In this paper MATLAB is used for modeling and testing of the control system. The experimental results of the interacting water level process can be satisfyingly illustrated the transient response and the steady state response.

Keywords: Coupled-Tank, Interacting water level process, PIDController, Auto-tuning.

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Authors: Hyun-Woo Cho

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The fault detection and diagnosis of complicated production processes is one of essential tasks needed to run the process safely with good final product quality. Unexpected events occurred in the process may have a serious impact on the process. In this work, triangular representation of process measurement data obtained in an on-line basis is evaluated using simulation process. The effect of using linear and nonlinear reduced spaces is also tested. Their diagnosis performance was demonstrated using multivariate fault data. It has shown that the nonlinear technique based diagnosis method produced more reliable results and outperforms linear method. The use of appropriate reduced space yielded better diagnosis performance. The presented diagnosis framework is different from existing ones in that it attempts to extract the fault pattern in the reduced space, not in the original process variable space. The use of reduced model space helps to mitigate the sensitivity of the fault pattern to noise.

Keywords: Real-time Fault diagnosis, triangular representation of patterns in reduced spaces, Nonlinear kernel technique, multivariate statistical modeling.

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Authors: Mansab Ali, Muhammad Khalid Khan

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The advances in wireless communication have opened unlimited horizons but there are some challenges as well. The Nature derived air medium between MS (Mobile Station) and BS (Base Station) is beyond human control and produces channel impairment. The impact of the natural conditions at the air medium is the biggest issue in wireless communication. Natural conditions make reliability more cumbersome; here reliability refers to the efficient recovery of the lost or erroneous data. The SR-ARQ (Selective Repeat-Automatic Repeat Request) protocol is a de facto standard for any wireless technology at the air interface with its standard reliability features. Our focus in this research is on the reliability of the control or feedback signal of the SR-ARQ protocol. The proposed mechanism, RSR-ARQ (Reliable SR-ARQ) is an enhancement of the SR-ARQ protocol that has ensured the reliability of the control signals through channel impairment sensitive mechanism. We have modeled the system under two-state discrete time Markov Channel. The simulation results demonstrate the better recovery of the lost or erroneous data that will increase the overall system performance.

Keywords: ISR-ARQ, MAA, RSR-ARQ, SAA.

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Authors: K. Aravindhan, Trishit Bandyopadhyay, Mahesh Mehendale, Supriya Kumar De

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The inherent iterative nature of product design and development poses significant challenge to reduce the product design and development time (PD). In order to shorten the time to market, organizations have adopted concurrent development where multiple specialized tasks and design activities are carried out in parallel. Iterative nature of work coupled with the overlap of activities can result in unpredictable time to completion and significant rework. Many of the products have missed the time to market window due to unanticipated or rather unplanned iteration and rework. The iterative and often overlapped processes introduce greater amounts of ambiguity in design and development, where the traditional methods and tools of project management provide less value. In this context, identifying critical metrics to understand the iteration probability is an open research area where significant contribution can be made given that iteration has been the key driver of cost and schedule risk in PD projects. Two important questions that the proposed study attempts to address are: Can we predict and identify the number of iterations in a product development flow? Can we provide managerial insights for a better control over iteration? The proposal introduces the concept of decision points and using this concept intends to develop metrics that can provide managerial insights into iteration predictability. By characterizing the product development flow as a network of decision points, the proposed research intends to delve further into iteration probability and attempts to provide more clarity.

Keywords: Decision Points, Iteration, Product Design, Rework.

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Authors: Tomohiro Hachino, Hitoshi Takata, Seiji Fukushima, Yasutaka Igarashi

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This paper presents a Gaussian process model-based short-term electric load forecasting. The Gaussian process model is a nonparametric model and the output of the model has Gaussian distribution with mean and variance. The multiple Gaussian process models as every hour ahead predictors are used to forecast future electric load demands up to 24 hours ahead in accordance with the direct forecasting approach. The separable least-squares approach that combines the linear least-squares method and genetic algorithm is applied to train these Gaussian process models. Simulation results are shown to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed electric load forecasting.

Keywords: Direct method, electric load forecasting, Gaussian process model, genetic algorithm, separable least-squares method.

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Authors: Abdelouahab Moussaoui, Nabila Ferahta, Victor Chen

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The development of aid's systems for the medical diagnosis is not easy thing because of presence of inhomogeneities in the MRI, the variability of the data from a sequence to the other as well as of other different source distortions that accentuate this difficulty. A new automatic, contextual, adaptive and robust segmentation procedure by MRI brain tissue classification is described in this article. A first phase consists in estimating the density of probability of the data by the Parzen-Rozenblatt method. The classification procedure is completely automatic and doesn't make any assumptions nor on the clusters number nor on the prototypes of these clusters since these last are detected in an automatic manner by an operator of mathematical morphology called skeleton by influence zones detection (SKIZ). The problem of initialization of the prototypes as well as their number is transformed in an optimization problem; in more the procedure is adaptive since it takes in consideration the contextual information presents in every voxel by an adaptive and robust non parametric model by the Markov fields (MF). The number of bad classifications is reduced by the use of the criteria of MPM minimization (Maximum Posterior Marginal).

Keywords: Clustering, Automatic Classification, SKIZ, MarkovFields, Image segmentation, Maximum Posterior Marginal (MPM).

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Authors: Chen Wu, Lijuan Wang

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Relation between tolerance class and indispensable attribute and knowledge dependency in rough set model with tolerance relation is explored. After giving definitions and concepts of knowledge dependency and knowledge dependency degree for incomplete information system in tolerance rough set model by distinguishing decision attribute containing missing attribute value or not, the result of maintaining reflectivity, transitivity, augmentation, decomposition law and merge law for complete knowledge dependency is proved. Knowledge dependency degrees (not complete knowledge dependency degrees) only satisfy some laws after transitivity, augmentation and decomposition operations. An algorithm to solve attribute reduction in an incomplete decision table is designed. The correctness is checked by an example.

Keywords: Incomplete information system, rough set, tolerance relation, knowledge dependence, attribute reduction.

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Authors: Indradip Banerjee, Souvik Bhattacharyya, Gautam Sanyal

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‘Steganalysis’ is one of the challenging and attractive interests for the researchers with the development of information hiding techniques. It is the procedure to detect the hidden information from the stego created by known steganographic algorithm. In this paper, a novel feature based image steganalysis technique is proposed. Various statistical moments have been used along with some similarity metric. The proposed steganalysis technique has been designed based on transformation in four wavelet domains, which include Haar, Daubechies, Symlets and Biorthogonal. Each domain is being subjected to various classifiers, namely K-nearest-neighbor, K* Classifier, Locally weighted learning, Naive Bayes classifier, Neural networks, Decision trees and Support vector machines. The experiments are performed on a large set of pictures which are available freely in image database. The system also predicts the different message length definitions.

Keywords: Steganalysis, Moments, Wavelet Domain, KNN, K*, LWL, Naive Bayes Classifier, Neural networks, Decision trees, SVM.

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Authors: Sylwia Wiewiorowska, Zbigniew Muskalski

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The article presents part of research on the development of nickel plated welding wire production technology, whose application will enable the elimination of the flaws of currently manufactured welding wires. The nickel plated welding wire will be distinguished by high quality, because the Ni layer which is deposited electrochemically onto it from acid baths is characterized by very good adhesion to the steel wire surface, while the ductile nickel well deforms plastically in the drawing process and the adhesion of the Ni layer increases in the drawing process due to the occurring process of diffusion between the Ni and the steel. The Ni layer obtained in the proposed technology, despite a smaller thickness than when the wire is coated with copper, is continuous and tight, thus ensuring high corrosion resistance, as well as unsusceptible to scaling, which should provide a product that meets requirements imposed by the market. The product will also reduce, to some extent, the amount of copper brought in to steel through recycling, while the wire coating nickel introduced to the weld in the welding process is expected, to a degree, to favorably influence its mechanical properties. The paper describes the tests of the process of nickel plating of f1.96 mm-diameter wires using various nickel plating baths with different process parameters.

Keywords: Steel wire, plating baths, welding process, coatings.

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Authors: J. Hodicky, P. Frantis

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Command and Control (C2) system and its interfacethe Common Operational Picture (COP) are main means that supports commander in its decision making process. COP contains information about friendly and enemy unit positions. The friendly position is gathered via tactical network. In the case of tactical network failure the information about units are not available. The tactical simulator can be used as a tool that is capable to predict movements of units in respect of terrain features. Article deals with an experiment that was based on Czech C2 system that is in the case of connectivity lost fed by VR Forces simulator. Article analyzes maximum time interval in which the position created by simulator is still usable and truthful for commander in real time.

Keywords: command and control system, movement prediction, simulation

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Authors: Onder Yakut, Serdar Solak, Emine Dogru Bolat

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Measuring the Electrocardiogram (ECG) signal is an essential process for the diagnosis of the heart diseases. The ECG signal has the information of the degree of how much the heart performs its functions. In medical diagnosis and treatment systems, Decision Support Systems processing the ECG signal are being developed for the use of clinicians while medical examination. In this study, a modular wireless ECG (WECG) measuring and recording system using a single board computer and e-Health sensor platform is developed. In this designed modular system, after the ECG signal is taken from the body surface by the electrodes first, it is filtered and converted to digital form. Then, it is recorded to the health database using Wi-Fi communication technology. The real time access of the ECG data is provided through the internet utilizing the developed web interface.

Keywords: ECG, e-health sensor shield, raspberry Pi, wifi technology.

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Authors: Sheetal Kumar Parwar, J. Deb Barma, A. Majumder

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Submerged arc welding is a very complex process. It is a very efficient and high performance welding process. In this present study an attempt have been done to reduce the welding distortion by increased amount of oxide flux through TiO2 in submerged arc welding process. Care has been taken to avoid the excessiveness of the adding agent for attainment of significant results. Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) based BAT algorithm is used for the parametric optimization purpose in which DEA is used to convert multi response parameters into a single response parameter. The present study also helps to know the effectiveness of the addition of TiO2 in active flux during submerged arc welding process.

Keywords: BAT algorithm, design of experiment, optimization, submerged arc welding.

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Authors: Chun-guang Pan, Ying-wu Chen

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Risk response planning is of importance for software project risk management (SPRM). In CMMI, risk management was in the third capability maturity level, which provides a framework for software project risk identification, assessment, risk planning, risk control. However, the CMMI-based SPRM currently lacks quantitative supporting tools, especially during the process of implementing software project risk planning. In this paper, an economic optimization model for selecting risk reduction actions in the phase of software project risk response planning is presented. Furthermore, an example taken from a Chinese software industry is illustrated to verify the application of this method. The research provides a risk decision method for project risk managers that can be used in the implementation of CMMI-based SPRM.

Keywords: Software project, risk management, CMMI, riskresponse planning.

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Authors: Pongchanun Luangpaiboon, Wanwisa Sarasang

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In this paper, performances of shuffled frog leaping algorithm was investigated on the stealth laser dicing process. Effect of problem on the performance of the algorithm was based on the tolerance of meandering data. From the customer specification it could be less than five microns with the target of zero microns. Currently, the meandering levels are unsatisfactory when compared to the customer specification. Firstly, the two-level factorial design was applied to preliminarily study the statistically significant effects of five process variables. In this study one influential process variable is integer. From the experimental results, the new operating condition from the algorithm was superior when compared to the current manufacturing condition.

Keywords: Stealth Laser Dicing Process, Meandering, Metaheuristics, Shuffled Frog Leaping Algorithm.

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Authors: S. Kotsiantis, E. Koumanakos, D. Tzelepis, V. Tampakas

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This paper explores the effectiveness of machine learning techniques in detecting firms that issue fraudulent financial statements (FFS) and deals with the identification of factors associated to FFS. To this end, a number of experiments have been conducted using representative learning algorithms, which were trained using a data set of 164 fraud and non-fraud Greek firms in the recent period 2001-2002. The decision of which particular method to choose is a complicated problem. A good alternative to choosing only one method is to create a hybrid forecasting system incorporating a number of possible solution methods as components (an ensemble of classifiers). For this purpose, we have implemented a hybrid decision support system that combines the representative algorithms using a stacking variant methodology and achieves better performance than any examined simple and ensemble method. To sum up, this study indicates that the investigation of financial information can be used in the identification of FFS and underline the importance of financial ratios.

Keywords: Machine learning, stacking, classifier.

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Authors: Andreas Jede, Frank Teuteberg

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Cloud computing (CC) has already gained overall appreciation in research and practice. Whereas the willingness to integrate cloud services in various IT environments is still unbroken, the previous CC procurement processes run mostly in an unorganized and non-standardized way. In practice, a sufficiently specific, yet applicable business process for the important acquisition phase is often lacking. And research does not appropriately remedy this deficiency yet. Therefore, this paper introduces a field-tested approach for CC procurement. Based on an extensive literature review and augmented by expert interviews, we designed a model that is validated and further refined through an in-depth real-life case study. For the detailed process description, we apply the event-driven process chain notation (EPC). The gained valuable insights into the case study may help CC research to shift to a more socio-technical area. For practice, next to giving useful organizational instructions we will provide extended checklists and lessons learned.

Keywords: Cloud Procurement Process, IT-Organization, Event-driven Process Chain, In-depth Case Study.

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Authors: Ezeni Brzovska, Durdana Ozretic-Dosen

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The purpose of this paper is to deepen the understanding of the product cues that influence purchase decision for a specific product category – chocolate, and to identify demographic differences in the buying behavior. ANOVA was employed for analyzing the significance level for nine product cues, and the survey showed statistically significant differences among different age and gender groups, and between respondents with different levels of education. From the theoretical perspective, the study adds to the existing knowledge by contributing with the research results from the new environment (Southeast Europe, Macedonia), which has been neglected so far. Establishing the level of significance for the product cues that affect buying behavior in the chocolate consumption context might help managers to improve marketing decision-making, and better meet consumer needs through identifying opportunities for packaging innovations and/or personalization toward different target groups.

Keywords: Chocolate consumption context, chocolate selection, demographic characteristics, product cues.

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Authors: P. Beraldi, M. E. Bruni

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Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is one of the most widely used technique for evaluating the relative efficiency of a set of homogeneous decision making units. Traditionally, it assumes that input and output variables are known in advance, ignoring the critical issue of data uncertainty. In this paper, we deal with the problem of efficiency evaluation under uncertain conditions by adopting the general framework of the stochastic programming. We assume that output parameters are represented by discretely distributed random variables and we propose two different models defined according to a neutral and risk-averse perspective. The models have been validated by considering a real case study concerning the evaluation of the technical efficiency of a sample of individual firms operating in the Italian leather manufacturing industry. Our findings show the validity of the proposed approach as ex-ante evaluation technique by providing the decision maker with useful insights depending on his risk aversion degree.

Keywords: DEA, Stochastic Programming, Ex-ante evaluation technique, Conditional Value at Risk.

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Authors: P.Cordero, R.Poler, R.Sanchis

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The environmental impacts caused by the current production and consumption models, together with the impact that the current economic crisis, bring necessary changes in the European industry toward new business models based on sustainability issues that could allow them to innovate and improve their competitiveness. This paper analyzes the key environmental issues and the current and future market trends in one of the most important industrial sectors in Spain, the furniture sector. It also proposes new decision support tools -diagnostic kit, roadmap and guidelines- to guide companies to implement sustainability criteria into their organizations, including eco-design strategies and other economical and social strategies in accordance with the sustainability definition, and other available tools such as eco-labels, environmental management systems, etc., and to use and combine them to obtain the results the company expects to help improve its competitiveness.

Keywords: Furniture sector, eco-design, sustainability, economical crisis, market trends, roadmap

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Authors: C. D. Naiju, K. Annamalai, Siva Prasad Darla, Y. Murali Krishna

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This work presents the results of a study carried out to determine the sliding wear behavior and its effect on the process parameters of components manufactured by direct metal laser sintering (DMLS). A standard procedure and specimen had been used in the present study to find the wear behavior. Using Taguchi-s experimental technique, an orthogonal array of modified L8 had been developed. Sliding wear testing using pin-on-disk machine was carried out and analysis of variance (ANOVA) technique was used to investigate the effect of process parameters and to identify the main process parameter that influences the properties of wear behavior on the DMLS components. It has been found that part orientation, one of the selected process parameter had more influence on wear as compared to other selected process parameters.

Keywords: ANOVA, DMLS, Taguchi, Wear.

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Authors: Hosni, N., Shinozaki, M.

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Cameron Highlands is known for upland tourism area with vast natural wealth, mountainous landscape endowed with rich diverse species as well as people traditions and cultures. With these various resources, CH possesses an interesting visual and panorama that can be offered to the tourist. However this benefit may not be utilized without obtaining the understanding of existing landscape structure and visual. Given a limited data, this paper attempts to classify landscape visual of Cameron Highlands using land use and contour data. Visual points of view were determined from the given tourist attraction points in the CH Local Plan 2003-2015. The result shows landscape visual and structure categories offered in the study area. The result can be used for further analysis to determine the best alternative tourist trails for tourism planning and decision making using readily available data.

Keywords: Visibility, landscape visual, urban planning, GIS

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Authors: S. Kavitha, Nirmala P. Ratchagar

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This paper presents the novel deterministic dynamic programming approach for solving optimization problem with quadratic objective function with linear equality and inequality constraints. The proposed method employs backward recursion in which computations proceeds from last stage to first stage in a multi-stage decision problem. A generalized recursive equation which gives the exact solution of an optimization problem is derived in this paper. The method is purely analytical and avoids the usage of initial solution. The feasibility of the proposed method is demonstrated with a practical example. The numerical results show that the proposed method provides global optimum solution with negligible computation time.

Keywords: Backward recursion, Dynamic programming, Multi-stage decision problem, Quadratic objective function.

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Authors: Filiz Ersoz, Taner Ersoz, Erkin Guler

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This paper addresses the issues and technique for textile industry using data mining techniques. Data mining has been applied to the stitching of garments products that were obtained from a textile company. Data mining techniques were applied to the data obtained from the CHAID algorithm, CART algorithm, Regression Analysis and, Artificial Neural Networks. Classification technique based analyses were used while data mining and decision model about the production per person and variables affecting about production were found by this method. In the study, the results show that as the daily working time increases, the production per person also decreases. In addition, the relationship between total daily working and production per person shows a negative result and the production per person show the highest and negative relationship.

Keywords: Data mining, textile production, decision trees, classification.

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Authors: Esther T. Akinlabi, Stephen A. Akinlabi

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Friction Stir Welding (FSW) is a solid state welding process invented and patented by The Welding Institute (TWI) in the United Kingdom in 1991 for butt and lap welding of metals and plastics. This paper highlights the benefits of friction stir welding process as an energy efficient and a green technology process in the field of welding. Compared to the other conventional welding processes, its benefits, typical applications and its use in joining similar and dissimilar materials are also presented.

Keywords: Dissimilar materials, Friction Stir Welding, Green technology, similar materials.

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Authors: Nazleeni Samiha Haron, Anang Hudaya Muhamad Amin, Mohd Hilmi Hasan, Izzatdin Abdul Aziz, Wirdhayu Mohd Wahid

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In any distributed systems, process scheduling plays a vital role in determining the efficiency of the system. Process scheduling algorithms are used to ensure that the components of the system would be able to maximize its utilization and able to complete all the processes assigned in a specified period of time. This paper focuses on the development of comparative simulator for distributed process scheduling algorithms. The objectives of the works that have been carried out include the development of the comparative simulator, as well as to implement a comparative study between three distributed process scheduling algorithms; senderinitiated, receiver-initiated and hybrid sender-receiver-initiated algorithms. The comparative study was done based on the Average Waiting Time (AWT) and Average Turnaround Time (ATT) of the processes involved. The simulation results show that the performance of the algorithms depends on the number of nodes in the system.

Keywords: Distributed Systems, Load Sharing, Process Scheduling, AWT and ATT

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Authors: Jung-in Yoon, Ho-saeng Lee, Seung-taek Oh, Sang-gyu Lee, Keun-hyung Choi

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In this paper, several different types of natural gas liquefaction cycle. First, two processes are a cascade process with two staged compression were designed and simulated. These include Inter-cooler which is consisted to Propane, Ethylene and Methane cycle, and also, liquid-gas heat exchanger is applied to between of methane and ethylene cycles (process2) and between of ethylene and propane (process2). Also, these cycles are compared with two staged cascade process using only a Inter-cooler (process1). The COP of process2 and process3 showed about 13.99% and 6.95% higher than process1, respectively. Also, the yield efficiency of LNG improved comparing with process1 by 13.99% lower specific power. Additionally, C3MR process are simulated and compared with Process 2.

Keywords: Cascade, C3MR, LNG, Inter-cooler

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Authors: Vesna Bosilj Vukšić, Darija Ivandić Vidović, Ljubica Milanović Glavan

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Information technology plays an irreplaceable role in introducing and improving business process orientation in a company. It enables implementation of the theoretical concept, measurement of results achieved and undertaking corrective measures aimed at improvements. Information technology is a key concept in the development and implementation of the business process management systems as it establishes a connection to business operations. Both in the literature and practice, insurance companies are often seen as highly process oriented due to the nature of their business and focus on customers. They are also considered leaders in using information technology for business process management. The research conducted aimed to investigate whether the perceived leadership status of insurance companies is well deserved, i.e. to establish the level of process orientation and explore the practice of information technology use in insurance companies in the region. The main instrument for primary data collection within this research was an electronic survey questionnaire sent to the management of insurance companies in the Republic of Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Slovenia, Serbia and Macedonia. The conducted research has shown that insurance companies have a satisfactory level of process orientation, but that there is also a huge potential for improvement, especially in the segment of information technology and its connection to business processes.

Keywords: Business processes management, process orientation, information technology, insurance companies.

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