Search results for: Stochastic Distribution.
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2113

Search results for: Stochastic Distribution.

1363 Model of Transhipment and Routing Applied to the Cargo Sector in Small and Medium Enterprises of Bogotá, Colombia

Authors: Oscar Javier Herrera Ochoa, Ivan Dario Romero Fonseca

Abstract:

This paper presents a design of a model for planning the distribution logistics operation. The significance of this work relies on the applicability of this fact to the analysis of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) of dry freight in Bogotá. Two stages constitute this implementation: the first one is the place where optimal planning is achieved through a hybrid model developed with mixed integer programming, which considers the transhipment operation based on a combined load allocation model as a classic transshipment model; the second one is the specific routing of that operation through the heuristics of Clark and Wright. As a result, an integral model is obtained to carry out the step by step planning of the distribution of dry freight for SMEs in Bogotá. In this manner, optimum assignments are established by utilizing transshipment centers with that purpose of determining the specific routing based on the shortest distance traveled.

Keywords: Transshipment model, mixed integer programming, saving algorithm, dry freight transportation.

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1362 Distribution and Source of PAHs in Surface Sediments of Canon River Mouth, Taiwan

Authors: Chiu-Wen Chen, Chih-Feng Chen, Cheng-Di Dong

Abstract:

Surface sediment samples were collected from the Canon River mouth, Taiwan and analyzed for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). Total PAHs concentrations varied from 337 to 1,252 ng/g dry weight, with a mean concentration of 827 ng/g dry weight. The spatial distribution of PAHs reveals that the PAHs concentration is relatively high in the river mouth region, and gradually diminishes toward the harbor region. Diagnostic ratios showed that the possible source of PAHs in the Canon River mouth could be petroleum combustion. The toxic equivalent concentrations (TEQcarc) of PAHs varied from 47 to 112 ng TEQ/g dry weight. Higher total TEQcarc values were found in the river mouth region. As compared with the US Sediment Quality Guidelines (SQGs), the observed levels of PAHs at Canon River mouth were lower than the effects range low (ERL), and would probably not exert adverse biological effects.

Keywords: PAHs, sediment, river mouth, sediment quality guidelines (SQGs), toxic equivalent (TEQcarc)

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1361 Segmenting Ultrasound B-Mode Images Using RiIG Distributions and Stochastic Optimization

Authors: N. Mpofu, M. Sears

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose a novel algorithm for delineating the endocardial wall from a human heart ultrasound scan. We assume that the gray levels in the ultrasound images are independent and identically distributed random variables with different Rician Inverse Gaussian (RiIG) distributions. Both synthetic and real clinical data will be used for testing the algorithm. Algorithm performance will be evaluated using the expert radiologist evaluation of a soft copy of an ultrasound scan during the scanning process and secondly, doctor’s conclusion after going through a printed copy of the same scan. Successful implementation of this algorithm should make it possible to differentiate normal from abnormal soft tissue and help disease identification, what stage the disease is in and how best to treat the patient. We hope that an automated system that uses this algorithm will be useful in public hospitals especially in Third World countries where problems such as shortage of skilled radiologists and shortage of ultrasound machines are common. These public hospitals are usually the first and last stop for most patients in these countries.

Keywords: Endorcardial Wall, Rician Inverse Distributions, Segmentation, Ultrasound Images.

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1360 Sustainable Urban Development of Slum Prone Area of Dhaka City

Authors: S. Ahmed Sinthia

Abstract:

Dhaka, the capital city of Bangladesh, is one of the densely populated cities in the world. Due to rapid urbanization 60% of its population lives in slum and squatter settlements. The reason behind this poverty is low economic growth, inequitable distribution of income, unequal distribution of productive assets, unemployment and underemployment, high rate of population growth, low level of human resource development, natural disasters, and limited access to public services. Along with poverty, creating pressure on urban land, shelter, plots, open spaces this creates environmental and ecological degradation. These constraints are mostly resulted from the failures of the government policies and measures and only Government can solve this problem. This is now prime time to establish planning and environmental management policy and sustainable urban development for the city and for the urban slum dwellers which are free from eviction, criminals, rent seekers and other miscreants.

Keywords: Economic and resource constraints, environmental degradation and management, government policy, land management and policy, sustainable development.

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1359 Trajectory-Based Modified Policy Iteration

Authors: R. Sharma, M. Gopal

Abstract:

This paper presents a new problem solving approach that is able to generate optimal policy solution for finite-state stochastic sequential decision-making problems with high data efficiency. The proposed algorithm iteratively builds and improves an approximate Markov Decision Process (MDP) model along with cost-to-go value approximates by generating finite length trajectories through the state-space. The approach creates a synergy between an approximate evolving model and approximate cost-to-go values to produce a sequence of improving policies finally converging to the optimal policy through an intelligent and structured search of the policy space. The approach modifies the policy update step of the policy iteration so as to result in a speedy and stable convergence to the optimal policy. We apply the algorithm to a non-holonomic mobile robot control problem and compare its performance with other Reinforcement Learning (RL) approaches, e.g., a) Q-learning, b) Watkins Q(λ), c) SARSA(λ).

Keywords: Markov Decision Process (MDP), Mobile robot, Policy iteration, Simulation.

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1358 On the Optimality Assessment of Nanoparticle Size Spectrometry and Its Association to the Entropy Concept

Authors: A. Shaygani, R. Saifi, M. S. Saidi, M. Sani

Abstract:

Particle size distribution, the most important characteristics of aerosols, is obtained through electrical characterization techniques. The dynamics of charged nanoparticles under the influence of electric field in Electrical Mobility Spectrometer (EMS) reveals the size distribution of these particles. The accuracy of this measurement is influenced by flow conditions, geometry, electric field and particle charging process, therefore by the transfer function (transfer matrix) of the instrument. In this work, a wire-cylinder corona charger was designed and the combined fielddiffusion charging process of injected poly-disperse aerosol particles was numerically simulated as a prerequisite for the study of a multichannel EMS. The result, a cloud of particles with no uniform charge distribution, was introduced to the EMS. The flow pattern and electric field in the EMS were simulated using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) to obtain particle trajectories in the device and therefore to calculate the reported signal by each electrometer. According to the output signals (resulted from bombardment of particles and transferring their charges as currents), we proposed a modification to the size of detecting rings (which are connected to electrometers) in order to evaluate particle size distributions more accurately. Based on the capability of the system to transfer information contents about size distribution of the injected particles, we proposed a benchmark for the assessment of optimality of the design. This method applies the concept of Von Neumann entropy and borrows the definition of entropy from information theory (Shannon entropy) to measure optimality. Entropy, according to the Shannon entropy, is the ''average amount of information contained in an event, sample or character extracted from a data stream''. Evaluating the responses (signals) which were obtained via various configurations of detecting rings, the best configuration which gave the best predictions about the size distributions of injected particles, was the modified configuration. It was also the one that had the maximum amount of entropy. A reasonable consistency was also observed between the accuracy of the predictions and the entropy content of each configuration. In this method, entropy is extracted from the transfer matrix of the instrument for each configuration. Ultimately, various clouds of particles were introduced to the simulations and predicted size distributions were compared to the exact size distributions.

Keywords: Aerosol Nano-Particle, CFD, Electrical Mobility Spectrometer, Von Neumann entropy.

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1357 Closely Parametrical Model for an Electrical Arc Furnace

Authors: Labar Hocine, Dgeghader Yacine, Kelaiaia Mounia Samira, Bounaya Kamel

Abstract:

To maximise furnace production it-s necessary to optimise furnace control, with the objectives of achieving maximum power input into the melting process, minimum network distortion and power-off time, without compromise on quality and safety. This can be achieved with on the one hand by an appropriate electrode control and on the other hand by a minimum of AC transformer switching. Electrical arc is a stochastic process; witch is the principal cause of power quality problems, including voltages dips, harmonic distortion, unbalance loads and flicker. So it is difficult to make an appropriate model for an Electrical Arc Furnace (EAF). The factors that effect EAF operation are the melting or refining materials, melting stage, electrode position (arc length), electrode arm control and short circuit power of the feeder. So arc voltages, current and power are defined as a nonlinear function of the arc length. In this article we propose our own empirical function of the EAF and model, for the mean stages of the melting process, thanks to the measurements in the steel factory.

Keywords: Modelling, electrical arc, melting, power, EAF, steel.

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1356 High Performance in Parallel Data Integration: An Empirical Evaluation of the Ratio Between Processing Time and Number of Physical Nodes

Authors: Caspar von Seckendorff, Eldar Sultanow

Abstract:

Many studies have shown that parallelization decreases efficiency [1], [2]. There are many reasons for these decrements. This paper investigates those which appear in the context of parallel data integration. Integration processes generally cannot be allocated to packages of identical size (i. e. tasks of identical complexity). The reason for this is unknown heterogeneous input data which result in variable task lengths. Process delay is defined by the slowest processing node. It leads to a detrimental effect on the total processing time. With a real world example, this study will show that while process delay does initially increase with the introduction of more nodes it ultimately decreases again after a certain point. The example will make use of the cloud computing platform Hadoop and be run inside Amazon-s EC2 compute cloud. A stochastic model will be set up which can explain this effect.

Keywords: Process delay, speedup, efficiency, parallel computing, data integration, E-Commerce, Amazon Elastic Compute Cloud (EC2), Hadoop, Nutch.

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1355 Small Sample Bootstrap Confidence Intervals for Long-Memory Parameter

Authors: Josu Arteche, Jesus Orbe

Abstract:

The log periodogram regression is widely used in empirical applications because of its simplicity, since only a least squares regression is required to estimate the memory parameter, d, its good asymptotic properties and its robustness to misspecification of the short term behavior of the series. However, the asymptotic distribution is a poor approximation of the (unknown) finite sample distribution if the sample size is small. Here the finite sample performance of different nonparametric residual bootstrap procedures is analyzed when applied to construct confidence intervals. In particular, in addition to the basic residual bootstrap, the local and block bootstrap that might adequately replicate the structure that may arise in the errors of the regression are considered when the series shows weak dependence in addition to the long memory component. Bias correcting bootstrap to adjust the bias caused by that structure is also considered. Finally, the performance of the bootstrap in log periodogram regression based confidence intervals is assessed in different type of models and how its performance changes as sample size increases.

Keywords: bootstrap, confidence interval, log periodogram regression, long memory.

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1354 Reducing Uncertainty of Monte Carlo Estimated Fatigue Damage in Offshore Wind Turbines Using FORM

Authors: Jan-Tore H. Horn, Jørgen Juncher Jensen

Abstract:

Uncertainties related to fatigue damage estimation of non-linear systems are highly dependent on the tail behaviour and extreme values of the stress range distribution. By using a combination of the First Order Reliability Method (FORM) and Monte Carlo simulations (MCS), the accuracy of the fatigue estimations may be improved for the same computational efforts. The method is applied to a bottom-fixed, monopile-supported large offshore wind turbine, which is a non-linear and dynamically sensitive system. Different curve fitting techniques to the fatigue damage distribution have been used depending on the sea-state dependent response characteristics, and the effect of a bi-linear S-N curve is discussed. Finally, analyses are performed on several environmental conditions to investigate the long-term applicability of this multistep method. Wave loads are calculated using state-of-the-art theory, while wind loads are applied with a simplified model based on rotor thrust coefficients.

Keywords: Fatigue damage, FORM, monopile, monte carlo simulation, reliability, wind turbine.

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1353 Investigation on Performance of Change Point Algorithm in Time Series Dynamical Regimes and Effect of Data Characteristics

Authors: Farhad Asadi, Mohammad Javad Mollakazemi

Abstract:

In this paper, Bayesian online inference in models of data series are constructed by change-points algorithm, which separated the observed time series into independent series and study the change and variation of the regime of the data with related statistical characteristics. variation of statistical characteristics of time series data often represent separated phenomena in the some dynamical system, like a change in state of brain dynamical reflected in EEG signal data measurement or a change in important regime of data in many dynamical system. In this paper, prediction algorithm for studying change point location in some time series data is simulated. It is verified that pattern of proposed distribution of data has important factor on simpler and smother fluctuation of hazard rate parameter and also for better identification of change point locations. Finally, the conditions of how the time series distribution effect on factors in this approach are explained and validated with different time series databases for some dynamical system.

Keywords: Time series, fluctuation in statistical characteristics, optimal learning.

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1352 The Effects of Multipath on OFDM Systems for Broadband Power-Line Communications a Case of Medium Voltage Channel

Authors: Justinian Anatory, N. Theethayi, R. Thottappillil, C. Mwase, N.H. Mvungi

Abstract:

Power-line networks are widely used today for broadband data transmission. However, due to multipaths within the broadband power line communication (BPLC) systems owing to stochastic changes in the network load impedances, branches, etc., network or channel capacity performances are affected. This paper attempts to investigate the performance of typical medium voltage channels that uses Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (OFDM) techniques with Quadrature Amplitude Modulation (QAM) sub carriers. It has been observed that when the load impedances are different from line characteristic impedance channel performance decreases. Also as the number of branches in the link between the transmitter and receiver increases a loss of 4dB/branch is found in the signal to noise ratio (SNR). The information presented in the paper could be useful for an appropriate design of the BPLC systems.

Keywords: Communication channel model, Power-line communication, Transfer function, Multipath, Branched network, OFDM, QAM, performance evaluation

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1351 ABURAS Index: A Statistically Developed Index for Dengue-Transmitting Vector Population Prediction

Authors: Hani M. Aburas

Abstract:

“Dengue" is an African word meaning “bone breaking" because it causes severe joint and muscle pain that feels like bones are breaking. It is an infectious disease mainly transmitted by female mosquito, Aedes aegypti, and causes four serotypes of dengue viruses. In recent years, a dramatic increase in the dengue fever confirmed cases around the equator-s belt has been reported. Several conventional indices have been designed so far to monitor the transmitting vector populations known as House Index (HI), Container Index (CI), Breteau Index (BI). However, none of them describes the adult mosquito population size which is important to direct and guide comprehensive control strategy operations since number of infected people has a direct relationship with the vector density. Therefore, it is crucial to know the population size of the transmitting vector in order to design a suitable and effective control program. In this context, a study is carried out to report a new statistical index, ABURAS Index, using Poisson distribution based on the collection of vector population in Jeddah Governorate, Saudi Arabia.

Keywords: Poisson distribution, statistical index, prediction, Aedes aegypti.

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1350 Deterministic Random Number Generator Algorithm for Cryptosystem Keys

Authors: Adi A. Maaita, Hamza A. A. Al_Sewadi

Abstract:

One of the crucial parameters of digital cryptographic systems is the selection of the keys used and their distribution. The randomness of the keys has a strong impact on the system’s security strength being difficult to be predicted, guessed, reproduced, or discovered by a cryptanalyst. Therefore, adequate key randomness generation is still sought for the benefit of stronger cryptosystems. This paper suggests an algorithm designed to generate and test pseudo random number sequences intended for cryptographic applications. This algorithm is based on mathematically manipulating a publically agreed upon information between sender and receiver over a public channel. This information is used as a seed for performing some mathematical functions in order to generate a sequence of pseudorandom numbers that will be used for encryption/decryption purposes. This manipulation involves permutations and substitutions that fulfill Shannon’s principle of “confusion and diffusion”. ASCII code characters were utilized in the generation process instead of using bit strings initially, which adds more flexibility in testing different seed values. Finally, the obtained results would indicate sound difficulty of guessing keys by attackers.

Keywords: Cryptosystems, Information Security agreement, Key distribution, Random numbers.

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1349 Hydro-Geochemistry of Qare-Sou Catchment and Gorgan Gulf, Iran: Examining Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Major Ions and Determining the River’s Hydro-Chemical Type

Authors: Milad Kurdi, Hadi Farhadian, Teymour Eslamkish

Abstract:

This study examined the hydro-geochemistry of Qare-Sou catchment and Gorgan Gulf in order to determine the spatial distribution of major ions. In this regard, six hydrometer stations in the catchment and four stations in Gorgan Gulf were chosen and the samples were collected. Results of spatial and temporal distribution of major ions have shown similar variation trends for calcium, magnesium, and bicarbonate ions. Also, the spatial trend of chloride, sulfate, sodium and potassium ions were same as Electrical Conductivity (EC) and Total Dissolved Solid (TDS). In Nahar Khoran station, the concentrations of ions were more than other stations which may be related to human activities and the role of geology. The Siah Ab station’s ions showed high concentration which is may be related to the station’s close proximity to Gorgan Gulf and the return of water to Qare-Sou River. In order to determine the interaction of water and rock, the Gibbs diagram was used and the results showed that water of the river falls in the rock range and it is affected more by weathering and reaction between water and stone and less by evaporation and crystallization. Assessment of the quality of river water by using graphic methods indicated that the type of water in this area is Ca-HCO3-Mg. Major ions concentration in Qare-Sou in the universal average was more than but not more than the allowed limit by the World Health Organization and China Standard Organization. A comparison of ions concentration in Gorgan Gulf, seas and oceans showed that the pH in Gorgan Gulf was more than the other seas but in Gorgan Gulf the concentration of anion and cation was less than other seas.

Keywords: Hydro-geochemistry, Qare-Sou River, Gorgan Gulf, major ions, Gibbs diagram, water quality, graphical methods.

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1348 Predicting Effective Permeability of Nanodielectric Composites Bonded by Soft Magnetic Nanoparticles

Authors: A. Thabet, M. Repetto

Abstract:

Dielectric materials play an important role in broad applications, such as electrical and electromagnetic applications. This research studied the prediction of effective permeability of composite and nanocomposite dielectric materials based on theoretical analysis to specify the effects of embedded magnetic inclusions in enhancing magnetic properties of dielectrics. Effective permeability of Plastics and Glass nanodielectrics have been predicted with adding various types and percentages of magnetic nano-particles (Fe, Ni-Cu, Ni-Fe, MgZn_Ferrite, NiZn_Ferrite) for formulating new nanodielectric magnetic industrial materials. Soft nanoparticles powders that have been used in new nanodielectrics often possess the structure of a particle size in the range of micrometer- to nano-sized grains and magnetic isotropy, e.g., a random distribution of magnetic easy axes of the nanograins. It has been succeeded for enhancing characteristics of new nanodielectric magnetic industrial materials. The results have shown a significant effect of inclusions distribution on the effective permeability of nanodielectric magnetic composites, and so, explained the effect of magnetic inclusions types and their concentration on the effective permeability of nanodielectric magnetic materials.

Keywords: Nanoparticles, Nanodielectrics, Nanocomposites, Effective Permeability, Magnetic Properties.

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1347 Spectral Mixture Model Applied to Cannabis Parcel Determination

Authors: Levent Basayigit, Sinan Demir, Yusuf Ucar, Burhan Kara

Abstract:

Many research projects require accurate delineation of the different land cover type of the agricultural area. Especially it is critically important for the definition of specific plants like cannabis. However, the complexity of vegetation stands structure, abundant vegetation species, and the smooth transition between different seconder section stages make vegetation classification difficult when using traditional approaches such as the maximum likelihood classifier. Most of the time, classification distinguishes only between trees/annual or grain. It has been difficult to accurately determine the cannabis mixed with other plants. In this paper, a mixed distribution models approach is applied to classify pure and mix cannabis parcels using Worldview-2 imagery in the Lakes region of Turkey. Five different land use types (i.e. sunflower, maize, bare soil, and cannabis) were identified in the image. A constrained Gaussian mixture discriminant analysis (GMDA) was used to unmix the image. In the study, 255 reflectance ratios derived from spectral signatures of seven bands (Blue-Green-Yellow-Red-Rededge-NIR1-NIR2) were randomly arranged as 80% for training and 20% for test data. Gaussian mixed distribution model approach is proved to be an effective and convenient way to combine very high spatial resolution imagery for distinguishing cannabis vegetation. Based on the overall accuracies of the classification, the Gaussian mixed distribution model was found to be very successful to achieve image classification tasks. This approach is sensitive to capture the illegal cannabis planting areas in the large plain. This approach can also be used for monitoring and determination with spectral reflections in illegal cannabis planting areas.

Keywords: Gaussian mixture discriminant analysis, spectral mixture model, World View-2, land parcels.

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1346 Using Genetic Algorithm for Distributed Generation Allocation to Reduce Losses and Improve Voltage Profile

Authors: M. Sedighizadeh, A. Rezazadeh

Abstract:

This paper presents a method for the optimal allocation of Distributed generation in distribution systems. In this paper, our aim would be optimal distributed generation allocation for voltage profile improvement and loss reduction in distribution network. Genetic Algorithm (GA) was used as the solving tool, which referring two determined aim; the problem is defined and objective function is introduced. Considering to fitness values sensitivity in genetic algorithm process, there is needed to apply load flow for decision-making. Load flow algorithm is combined appropriately with GA, till access to acceptable results of this operation. We used MATPOWER package for load flow algorithm and composed it with our Genetic Algorithm. The suggested method is programmed under MATLAB software and applied ETAP software for evaluating of results correctness. It was implemented on part of Tehran electricity distributing grid. The resulting operation of this method on some testing system is illuminated improvement of voltage profile and loss reduction indexes.

Keywords: Distributed Generation, Allocation, Voltage Profile, losses, Genetic Algorithm.

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1345 Detailed Mapping of Pyroclastic Flow Deposits by SAR Data Processing for an Active Volcano in the Torrid Zone

Authors: Asep Saepuloh, Katsuaki Koike

Abstract:

Field mapping activity for an active volcano mainly in the Torrid Zone is usually hampered by several problems such as steep terrain and bad atmosphere conditions. In this paper we present a simple solution for such problem by a combination Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) and geostatistical methods. By this combination, we could reduce the speckle effect from the SAR data and then estimate roughness distribution of the pyroclastic flow deposits. The main purpose of this study is to detect spatial distribution of new pyroclastic flow deposits termed as P-zone accurately using the β°data from two RADARSAT-1 SAR level-0 data. Single scene of Hyperion data and field observation were used for cross-validation of the SAR results. Mt. Merapi in central Java, Indonesia, was chosen as a study site and the eruptions in May-June 2006 were examined. The P-zones were found in the western and southern flanks. The area size and the longest flow distance were calculated as 2.3 km2 and 6.8 km, respectively. The grain size variation of the P-zone was mapped in detail from fine to coarse deposits regarding the C-band wavelength of 5.6 cm.

Keywords: Geostatistical Method, Mt. Merapi, Pyroclastic, RADARSAT-1.

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1344 Preparing Data for Calibration of Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide in Central Saudi Arabia

Authors: Abdulraaof H. Alqaili, Hamad A. Alsoliman

Abstract:

Through progress in pavement design developments, a pavement design method was developed, which is titled the Mechanistic Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG). Nowadays, the evolution in roads network and highways is observed in Saudi Arabia as a result of increasing in traffic volume. Therefore, the MEPDG currently is implemented for flexible pavement design by the Saudi Ministry of Transportation. Implementation of MEPDG for local pavement design requires the calibration of distress models under the local conditions (traffic, climate, and materials). This paper aims to prepare data for calibration of MEPDG in Central Saudi Arabia. Thus, the first goal is data collection for the design of flexible pavement from the local conditions of the Riyadh region. Since, the modifying of collected data to input data is needed; the main goal of this paper is the analysis of collected data. The data analysis in this paper includes processing each: Trucks Classification, Traffic Growth Factor, Annual Average Daily Truck Traffic (AADTT), Monthly Adjustment Factors (MAFi), Vehicle Class Distribution (VCD), Truck Hourly Distribution Factors, Axle Load Distribution Factors (ALDF), Number of axle types (single, tandem, and tridem) per truck class, cloud cover percent, and road sections selected for the local calibration. Detailed descriptions of input parameters are explained in this paper, which leads to providing of an approach for successful implementation of MEPDG. Local calibration of MEPDG to the conditions of Riyadh region can be performed based on the findings in this paper.

Keywords: Mechanistic-empirical pavement design guide, traffic characteristics, materials properties, climate, Riyadh.

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1343 A Framework of Monte Carlo Simulation for Examining the Uncertainty-Investment Relationship

Authors: George Yungchih Wang

Abstract:

This paper argues that increased uncertainty, in certain situations, may actually encourage investment. Since earlier studies mostly base their arguments on the assumption of geometric Brownian motion, the study extends the assumption to alternative stochastic processes, such as mixed diffusion-jump, mean-reverting process, and jump amplitude process. A general approach of Monte Carlo simulation is developed to derive optimal investment trigger for the situation that the closed-form solution could not be readily obtained under the assumption of alternative process. The main finding is that the overall effect of uncertainty on investment is interpreted by the probability of investing, and the relationship appears to be an invested U-shaped curve between uncertainty and investment. The implication is that uncertainty does not always discourage investment even under several sources of uncertainty. Furthermore, high-risk projects are not always dominated by low-risk projects because the high-risk projects may have a positive realization effect on encouraging investment.

Keywords: real options, geometric Brownian motion, mixeddiffusion-jump process, mean- reverting process, jump amplitudeprocess

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1342 Mechanical Structure Design Optimization by Blind Number Theory: Time-dependent Reliability

Authors: Zakari Yaou, Lirong Cui

Abstract:

In a product development process, understanding the functional behavior of the system, the role of components in achieving functions and failure modes if components/subsystem fails its required function will help develop appropriate design validation and verification program for reliability assessment. The integration of these three issues will help design and reliability engineers in identifying weak spots in design and planning future actions and testing program. This case study demonstrate the advantage of unascertained theory described in the subjective cognition uncertainty, and then applies blind number (BN) theory in describing the uncertainty of the mechanical system failure process and the same time used the same theory in bringing out another mechanical reliability system model. The practical calculations shows the BN Model embodied the characters of simply, small account of calculation but betterforecasting capability, which had the value of macroscopic discussion to some extent.

Keywords: Mechanical structure Design, time-dependent stochastic process, unascertained information, blind number theory.

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1341 Comparison of Electrical Parameters of Oil-Immersed and Dry-Type Transformer Using Finite Element Method

Authors: U. Amin, A. Talib, S. A. Qureshi, M. J. Hossain, G. Ahmad

Abstract:

The choice evaluation between oil-immersed and dry-type transformers is often controlled by cost, location, and application. This paper compares the electrical performance of liquid- filled and dry-type transformers, which will assist the customer to choose the right and efficient ones for particular applications. An accurate assessment of the time-average flux density, electric field intensity and voltage distribution in an oil-insulated and a dry-type transformer have been computed and investigated. The detailed transformer modeling and analysis has been carried out to determine electrical parameter distributions. The models of oil-immersed and dry-type transformers are developed and solved by using the finite element method (FEM) to compare the electrical parameters. The effects of non-uniform and non-coherent voltage gradient, flux density and electric field distribution on the power losses and insulation properties of transformers are studied in detail. The results show that, for the same voltage and kilo-volt-ampere (kVA) rating, oil-immersed transformers have better insulation properties and less hysteresis losses than the dry-type.

Keywords: Finite element method, flux density, transformer, voltage gradient.

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1340 The Research and Application of M/M/1/N Queuing Model with Variable Input Rates, Variable Service Rates and Impatient Customers

Authors: Quanru Pan

Abstract:

How to maintain the service speeds for the business to make the biggest profit is a problem worthy of study, which is discussed in this paper with the use of queuing theory. An M/M/1/N queuing model with variable input rates, variable service rates and impatient customers is established, and the following conclusions are drawn: the stationary distribution of the model, the relationship between the stationary distribution and the probability that there are n customers left in the system when a customer leaves (not including the customer who leaves himself), the busy period of the system, the average operating cycle, the loss probability for the customers not entering the system while they arriving at the system, the mean of the customers who leaves the system being for impatient, the loss probability for the customers not joining the queue due to the limited capacity of the system and many other indicators. This paper also indicates that the following conclusion is not correct: the more customers the business serve, the more profit they will get. At last, this paper points out the appropriate service speeds the business should keep to make the biggest profit.

Keywords: variable input rates, impatient customer, variable servicerates, profit maximization.

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1339 Effects of Road Disturbance on Plant Biodiversity

Authors: Sheng-Lan Zeng, Ting-Ting Zhang, Yu Gao, Zu-Tao Ouyang, Jia-Kuan Chen, Bo Li, Bin Zhao

Abstract:

Urbanization and related anthropogenic modifications cause extent of habitat fragmentation and directly lead to decline of local biodiversity. Conservation biologists advocate corridor creation as one approach to rescue biodiversity. Here we examine the utility of roads as corridors in preserving plant diversity by investigating roadside vegetation in Yellow River Delta (YRD), China. We examined the spatio-temporal distribution pattern of plant species richness, diversity and composition along roadside. The results suggest that roads, as dispersal conduits, increase occurrence probability of new settlers to a new area, meanwhile, roads accumulate the greater propagule pressure and favourable survival condition during operation phase. As a result, more species, including native and alien plants, non- halophyte and halophyte species, threatened and cosmopolitic species, were found prosperous at roadside. Roadside may be a refuge for more species, and the pattern of vegetation distribution is affected by road age and the distance from road verge.

Keywords: Native and alien species, Plant diversity conservation, Road construction, Road disturbance

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1338 On the Development of a Homogenized Earthquake Catalogue for Northern Algeria

Authors: I. Grigoratos, R. Monteiro

Abstract:

Regions with a significant percentage of non-seismically designed buildings and reduced urban planning are particularly vulnerable to natural hazards. In this context, the project ‘Improved Tools for Disaster Risk Mitigation in Algeria’ (ITERATE) aims at seismic risk mitigation in Algeria. Past earthquakes in North Algeria caused extensive damages, e.g. the El Asnam 1980 moment magnitude (Mw) 7.1 and Boumerdes 2003 Mw 6.8 earthquakes. This paper will address a number of proposed developments and considerations made towards a further improvement of the component of seismic hazard. In specific, an updated earthquake catalog (until year 2018) is compiled, and new conversion equations to moment magnitude are introduced. Furthermore, a network-based method for the estimation of the spatial and temporal distribution of the minimum magnitude of completeness is applied. We found relatively large values for Mc, due to the sparse network, and a nonlinear trend between Mw and body wave (mb) or local magnitude (ML), which are the most common scales reported in the region. Lastly, the resulting b-value of the Gutenberg-Richter distribution is sensitive to the declustering method.

Keywords: Conversion equation, magnitude of completeness, seismic events, seismic hazard.

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1337 A Study about the Distribution of the Spanning Ratios of Yao Graphs

Authors: Maryam Hsaini, Mostafa Nouri-Baygi

Abstract:

A critical problem in wireless sensor networks is limited battery and memory of nodes. Therefore, each node in the network could maintain only a subset of its neighbors to communicate with. This will increase the battery usage in the network because each packet should take more hops to reach its destination. In order to tackle these problems, spanner graphs are defined. Since each node has a small degree in a spanner graph and the distance in the graph is not much greater than its actual geographical distance, spanner graphs are suitable candidates to be used for the topology of a wireless sensor network. In this paper, we study Yao graphs and their behavior for a randomly selected set of points. We generate several random point sets and compare the properties of their Yao graphs with the complete graph. Based on our data sets, we obtain several charts demonstrating how Yao graphs behave for a set of randomly chosen point set. As the results show, the stretch factor of a Yao graph follows a normal distribution. Furthermore, the stretch factor is in average far less than the worst case stretch factor proved for Yao graphs in previous results. Furthermore, we use Yao graph for a realistic point set and study its stretch factor in real world.

Keywords: Wireless sensor network, spanner graph, Yao Graph.

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1336 Order Optimization of a Telecommunication Distribution Center through Service Lead Time

Authors: Tamás Hartványi, Ferenc Tóth

Abstract:

European telecommunication distribution center performance is measured by service lead time and quality. Operation model is CTO (customized to order) namely, a high mix customization of telecommunication network equipment and parts. CTO operation contains material receiving, warehousing, network and server assembly to order and configure based on customer specifications. Variety of the product and orders does not support mass production structure. One of the success factors to satisfy customer is to have a proper aggregated planning method for the operation in order to have optimized human resources and highly efficient asset utilization. Research will investigate several methods and find proper way to have an order book simulation where practical optimization problem may contain thousands of variables and the simulation running times of developed algorithms were taken into account with high importance. There are two operation research models that were developed, customer demand is given in orders, no change over time, customer demands are given for product types, and changeover time is constant.

Keywords: CTO, aggregated planning, demand simulation, changeover time.

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1335 Heat Transfer Modeling in Multi-Layer Cookware using Finite Element Method

Authors: Mohammad Reza Sedighi, Behnam Nilforooshan Dardashti

Abstract:

The high temperature degree and uniform Temperature Distribution (TD) on surface of cookware which contact with food are effective factors for improving cookware application. Additionally, the ability of pan material in retaining the heat and nonreactivity with foods are other significant properties. It is difficult for single material to meet a wide variety of demands such as superior thermal and chemical properties. Multi-Layer Plate (MLP) makes more regular TD. In this study the main objectives are to find the best structure (single or multi-layer) and materials to provide maximum temperature degree and uniform TD up side surface of pan. And also heat retaining of used metals with goal of improving the thermal quality of pan to economize the energy. To achieve this aim were employed Finite Element Method (FEM) for analyzing transient thermal behavior of applied materials. The analysis has been extended for different metals, we achieved the best temperature profile and heat retaining in Copper/ Stainless Steel MLP.

Keywords: Cookware, Energy optimization, Heat retaining, Laminated plate, Temperature distribution

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1334 Aerodynamic Models for the Analysis of Vertical Axis Wind Turbines (VAWTs)

Authors: T. Brahimi, F. Saeed, I. Paraschivoiu

Abstract:

This paper details the progress made in the development of the different state-of-the-art aerodynamic tools for the analysis of vertical axis wind turbines including the flow simulation around the blade, viscous flow, stochastic wind, and dynamic stall effects. The paper highlights the capabilities of the developed wind turbine aerodynamic codes over the last thirty years which are currently being used in North America and Europe by Sandia Laboratories, FloWind, IMST Marseilles, and Hydro-Quebec among others. The aerodynamic codes developed at Ecole Polytechnique de Montreal, Canada, represent valuable tools for simulating the flow around wind turbines including secondary effects. Comparison of theoretical results with experimental data have shown good agreement. The strength of the aerodynamic codes based on Double-Multiple Stream tube model (DMS) lies in its simplicity, accuracy, and ability to analyze secondary effects that interfere with wind turbine aerodynamic calculations.

Keywords: Aerodynamics, wind turbines, VAWT, CARDAAV, Darrieus, dynamic stall.

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