Search results for: Accident risks estimation

Authors: Adel Bettayeb, Robert Kaczmarek, Jean-Claude Vannier

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In this paper, we analyze the rotor eddy currents losses provoqued by the stator slot harmonics developed in the permanent magnets or pole pieces of synchronous machines. An analytical approach is presented to evaluate the effect of slot ripples on rotor field and losses calculation. This analysis is then tested on a model by 2D/3D finite element (FE) calculation. The results show a good agreement on loss calculations when skin effect is negligible and the magnet is considered.

Keywords: Analytical modeling, Eddy-currents, Finite-elementmethods, Power losses, Slot harmonics effect.

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Authors: Hussam Elias, Ninovic Perez, Holger Hirsch

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With ever-increasing use of equipment, device or more generally any electrical or electronic system, the chance of Electromagnetic incompatibility incidents has considerably increased which demands more attention to ensure the possible risks of these technologies. Therefore, complying with certain Electromagnetic compatibility (EMC) rules and not overtaking an acceptable level of radiated emissions are utmost importance for the diffusion of electronic products. In this paper, developed measure tool and a convolutional neural network were used to propose a method to reduce the required time to carry out the final measurement phase of Electromagnetic interference (EMI) measurement according to the norm EN 55032 by predicting the radiated emission and determining the height of the antenna that meets the maximum radiation value.

Keywords: Antenna height, Convolutional Neural Network, Electromagnetic Compatibility, Mean Absolute Error, position error.

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Authors: B. Selma, S. Chouraqui

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Nonlinear system identification is becoming an important tool which can be used to improve control performance. This paper describes the application of adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) model for controlling a car. The vehicle must follow a predefined path by supervised learning. Backpropagation gradient descent method was performed to train the ANFIS system. The performance of the ANFIS model was evaluated in terms of training performance and classification accuracies and the results confirmed that the proposed ANFIS model has potential in controlling the non linear system.

Keywords: Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), Fuzzy logic, neural network, nonlinear system, control

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Authors: Amir Hossein Pakshir, A. Hossein Pour, N. Jahandar, Ali Paydar

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Roundabout work on the principle of circulation and entry flows, where the maximum entry flow rates depend largely on circulating flow bearing in mind that entry flows must give away to circulating flows. Where an existing roundabout has a road hump installed at the entry arm, it can be hypothesized that the kinematics of vehicles may prevent the entry arm from achieving optimum performance. Road humps are traffic calming devices placed across road width solely as speed reduction mechanism. They are the preferred traffic calming option in Malaysia and often used on single and dual carriageway local routes. The speed limit on local routes is 30mph (50 km/hr). Road humps in their various forms achieved the biggest mean speed reduction (based on a mean speed before traffic calming of 30mph) of up to 10mph or 16 km/hr according to the UK Department of Transport. The underlying aim of reduced speed should be to achieve a 'safe' distribution of speeds which reflects the function of the road and the impacts on the local community. Constraining safe distribution of speeds may lead to poor drivers timing and delayed reflex reaction that can probably cause accident. Previous studies on road hump impact have focused mainly on speed reduction, traffic volume, noise and vibrations, discomfort and delay from the use of road humps. The paper is aimed at optimal entry and circulating flow induced by road humps. Results show that roundabout entry and circulating flow perform better in circumstances where there is no road hump at entrance.

Keywords: Road hump, Roundabout, Speed Reduction

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Authors: Zdravka Aljinović, Snježana Pivac, Boško Šego

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According to the interaction of inflation and unemployment, expectation of the rate of inflation in Croatia is estimated. The interaction between inflation and unemployment is shown by model based on three first-order differential i.e. difference equations: Phillips relation, adaptive expectations equation and monetary-policy equation. The resulting equation is second order differential i.e. difference equation which describes the time path of inflation. The data of the rate of inflation and the rate of unemployment are used for parameters estimation. On the basis of the estimated time paths, the stability and convergence analysis is done for the rate of inflation.

Keywords: Differencing, inflation, time path, unemployment.

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Authors: Rajeev R. Sahay

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Rivers have transient storage or dead zones where injected pollutants or solutes are entrapped for considerable period of time, known as residence time, before being released into the main flowing zones of rivers. In this study, a new empirical expression for residence time, implementing genetic programming on published dispersion data, has been derived. The proposed expression uses few hydraulic and geometric characteristics of rivers which are normally known to the authorities. When compared with some reported expressions, based on various statistical indices, it can be concluded that the proposed expression predicts the residence time of pollutants in natural rivers more accurately.

Keywords: Parameter estimation, pollutant transport, residence time, rivers, transient storage.

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Authors: Paul Akagwu, Aaron Aboshio

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In this study, typical c-ɸ soils subjected to loadings were assessed with a view to understand the general stress distribution and settlement behaviour of the soils under drained conditions. Numerical estimations of the non-dimensional bearing capacity factors, N_q and N_γ for varied angles of friction in the soil mass were obtained using PLAXIS. Ultimate bearing capacity values over a Ф range of 0-30 degrees were also computed and compared with analytical results obtained from the traditional simplified uncoupled approach of Terzaghi and Meyerhof. Results from the numerical study agree well with theoretical findings.

Keywords: Bearing capacity factors, finite element method, safe bearing pressure, structure-soil interaction.

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Authors: Benalia Nadia, Bensiali Nadia, Mekki Mounira

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In this paper, we propose an easily computable proximity index for predicting voltage collapse of a load bus using only measured values of the bus voltage and power; Using these measurements a polynomial of fourth order is obtained by using LES estimation algorithms. The sum of the absolute values of the polynomial coefficient gives an idea of the critical bus. We demonstrate the applicability of our proposed method on 6 bus test system. The results obtained verify its applicability, as well as its accuracy and the simplicity. From this indicator, it is allowed to predict the voltage instability or the proximity of a collapse. Results obtained by the PV curve are compared with corresponding values by QV curves and are observed to be in close agreement.

Keywords: least square method, Voltage Collapse, Voltage Stability, PV curve

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Authors: Akram Khaleghei Ghosheh Balagh, Viliam Makis, Leila Jafari

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In this paper, we present a new maintenance model for a partially observable system subject to two failure modes, namely a catastrophic failure and a failure due to the system degradation. The system is subject to condition monitoring and the degradation process is described by a hidden Markov model. A cost-optimal Bayesian control policy is developed for maintaining the system. The control problem is formulated in the semi-Markov decision process framework. An effective computational algorithm is developed, illustrated by a numerical example.

Keywords: Partially observable system, hidden Markov model, competing risks, multivariate Bayesian control.

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Authors: Jan Stodt, Christoph Reich

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The usage of machine learning models for prediction is growing rapidly and proof that the intended requirements are met is essential. Audits are a proven method to determine whether requirements or guidelines are met. However, machine learning models have intrinsic characteristics, such as the quality of training data, that make it difficult to demonstrate the required behavior and make audits more challenging. This paper describes an ML audit framework that evaluates and reviews the risks of machine learning applications, the quality of the training data, and the machine learning model. We evaluate and demonstrate the functionality of the proposed framework by auditing an steel plate fault prediction model.

Keywords: Audit, machine learning, assessment, metrics.

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Authors: G. Murugeswari, A. Suruliandi

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This paper proposes a rotational invariant texture feature based on the roughness property of the image for psoriasis image analysis. In this work, we have applied this feature for image classification and segmentation. The fuzzy concept is employed to overcome the imprecision of roughness. Since the psoriasis lesion is modeled by a rough surface, the feature is extended for calculating the Psoriasis Area Severity Index value. For classification and segmentation, the Nearest Neighbor algorithm is applied. We have obtained promising results for identifying affected lesions by using the roughness index and severity level estimation.

Keywords: Fuzzy texture feature, psoriasis, roughness feature, skin disease.

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Authors: Kollarama Subramanyam, Nisha Kuruvilla, J. P. Raina

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Novel compact expressions for propagation constant (γ) of SWCNT and bundled SWCNTs interconnect, in terms of physical parameters such as length, operating frequency and diameter of CNTs is proposed in this work. These simplified expressions enable physical insight and accurate estimation of signal attenuation level and its phase change at any length for a particular frequency. The proposed expressions are validated against SPICE simulated results of lumped as well as distributed equivalent electrical RLC nets of CNT interconnect. These expressions also help us to evaluate the cut off frequencies of SWCNTs for different interconnect lengths.

Keywords: Attenuation constant, Bundled SWCNT, CNT interconnects, Propagation Constant.

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Authors: Jung-Min Yang

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Fault diagnosis of composite asynchronous sequential machines with parallel composition is addressed in this paper. An adversarial input can infiltrate one of two submachines comprising the composite asynchronous machine, causing an unauthorized state transition. The objective is to characterize the condition under which the controller can diagnose any fault occurrence. Two control configurations, state feedback and output feedback, are considered in this paper. In the case of output feedback, the exact estimation of the state is impossible since the current state is inaccessible and the output feedback is given as the form of burst. A simple example is provided to demonstrate the proposed methodology.

Keywords: Asynchronous sequential machines, parallel composition, fault diagnosis.

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Authors: Bharadwaj Kadiyala, Sunitha V

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Most routing protocols (DSR, AODV etc.) that have been designed for wireless adhoc networks incorporate the broadcasting operation in their route discovery scheme. Probabilistic broadcasting techniques have been developed to optimize the broadcast operation which is otherwise very expensive in terms of the redundancy and the traffic it generates. In this paper we have explored percolation theory to gain a different perspective on probabilistic broadcasting schemes which have been actively researched in the recent years. This theory has helped us estimate the value of broadcast probability in a wireless adhoc network as a function of the size of the network. We also show that, operating at those optimal values of broadcast probability there is at least 25-30% reduction in packet regeneration during successful broadcasting.

Keywords: Crossover length, Percolation, Probabilistic broadcast, Wireless adhoc networks

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Authors: Preeda Sansakorn, Min An

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In order to be capable of dealing with uncertainties, subjectivities, including vagueness arising in building construction projects, the application of fuzzy reasoning technique based on fuzzy set theory is proposed. This study contributes significantly to the development of a fuzzy reasoning safety risk assessment model for building construction projects that could be employed to assess the risk magnitude of each hazardous event identified during construction, and a third parameter of probability of consequence is incorporated in the model. By using the proposed safety risk analysis methodology, more reliable and less ambiguities, which provide the safety risk management project team for decision-making purposes.

Keywords: Safety risks assessment, building construction safety, fuzzy reasoning, construction risk assessment model, building construction projects.

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Authors: Jonah Gamba

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In this paper the problem of estimating the time delay between two spatially separated noisy sinusoidal signals by system identification modeling is addressed. The system is assumed to be perturbed by both input and output additive white Gaussian noise. The presence of input noise introduces bias in the time delay estimates. Normally the solution requires a priori knowledge of the input-output noise variance ratio. We utilize the cascade of a self-tuned filter with the time delay estimator, thus making the delay estimates robust to input noise. Simulation results are presented to confirm the superiority of the proposed approach at low input signal-to-noise ratios.

Keywords: LMS algorithm, Self-tuned filter, Systemidentification, Time delay estimation, .

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Authors: Mustapha Kamel Mihoubi, Mohamed Essadik Kerkar

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Probabilistic risk analysis models are used to provide a better understanding of the reliability and structural failure of works, including when calculating the stability of large structures to a major risk in the event of an accident or breakdown. This work is interested in the study of the probability of failure of concrete dams through the application of reliability analysis methods including the methods used in engineering. It is in our case, the use of level 2 methods via the study limit state. Hence, the probability of product failures is estimated by analytical methods of the type first order risk method (FORM) and the second order risk method (SORM). By way of comparison, a level three method was used which generates a full analysis of the problem and involves an integration of the probability density function of random variables extended to the field of security using the Monte Carlo simulation method. Taking into account the change in stress following load combinations: normal, exceptional and extreme acting on the dam, calculation of the results obtained have provided acceptable failure probability values which largely corroborate the theory, in fact, the probability of failure tends to increase with increasing load intensities, thus causing a significant decrease in strength, shear forces then induce a shift that threatens the reliability of the structure by intolerable values of the probability of product failures. Especially, in case the increase of uplift in a hypothetical default of the drainage system.

Keywords: Dam, failure, limit-state, Monte Carlo simulation, reliability, probability, simulation, sliding, Taylor.

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Authors: U. Kairov, T. Karpenyuk, E. Ramanculov, A. Zinovyev

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The most common result of analysis of highthroughput data in molecular biology represents a global list of genes, ranked accordingly to a certain score. The score can be a measure of differential expression. Recent work proposed a new method for selecting a number of genes in a ranked gene list from microarray gene expression data such that this set forms the Optimally Functionally Enriched Network (OFTEN), formed by known physical interactions between genes or their products. Here we present calculation results of relative connectivity of genes from META-OFTEN network and tentative biological interpretation of the most reproducible signal. The relative connectivity and inbetweenness values of genes from META-OFTEN network were estimated.

Keywords: Microarray, META-OFTEN, gene network.

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Authors: Irina Pyrlina

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Author presents the results of a study conducted to identify criteria of efficient information system (IS) with serviceoriented architecture (SOA) realization and proposes a ranking method to evaluate SOA information systems using a set of architecture quality criteria before the systems are implemented. The method is used to compare 7 SOA projects and ranking result for SOA efficiency of the projects is provided. The choice of SOA realization project depends on following criteria categories: IS internal work and organization, SOA policies, guidelines and change management, processes and business services readiness, risk management and mitigation. The last criteria category was analyzed on the basis of projects statistics.

Keywords: multiple criteria threshold algorithm, serviceoriented architecture, SOA operational risks, efficiency criteria for IS architecture, projects ranking.

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Authors: Klathea Sevilla, Marjorie Remolador, Bryan Baltazar, Imee Saladaga, Loureal Camille Inocencio, Ma. Rosario Concepcion Ang

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The underutilization of biomass resources in the Philippines, combined with its growing population and the rise in fossil fuel prices confirms demand for alternative energy sources. The goal of this paper is to provide a comparison of MODIS-based and Landsat-based agricultural land cover maps when used in the estimation of rice hull’s available energy potential. Biomass resource assessment was done using mathematical models and remote sensing techniques employed in a GIS platform.

Keywords: Biomass, geographic information system, GIS, renewable energy.

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Authors: Maziar Ramezani, Thomas Neitzert

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A dent is a gross distortion of the pipe cross-section. Dent depth is defined as the maximum reduction in the diameter of the pipe compared to the original diameter. Pipeline dent finite element (FE) simulation and theoretical analysis are conducted in this paper to develop an understanding of the geometric characteristics and strain distribution in the pressurized dented pipe. Based on the results, the magnitude of the denting force increases significantly with increasing the internal pressure, and the maximum circumferential and longitudinal strains increase by increasing the internal pressure and the dent depth. The results can be used for characterizing dents and ranking their risks to the integrity of a pipeline.

Keywords: dented steel pipelines, Finite element model, Internal pressure, Strain distribution

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Authors: Oladotun A. Fatoki, Deborah A. Onifade

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Spoilage occurs in plant produce due to the action of field and storage microorganisms. The conditions of storage can also cause physiological spoilage. Various methods exist to ensure that these food substances maintain their quality long after harvesting. However, many of these methods either fail to keep the plant for the required period or predispose the plant to other spoilage risks. The major shortcoming posed by the use of many antimicrobials is the chemical residues it deposits in the food substance. The use of plants in preservation has been in use for a long period, though little understood then, it served its purposes. A better understanding of the roles of these plant parts in increasing the shelf life of farm produce has helped in the creation of more effective and safer means of pest and microbial control. This can be extended to plants that have not been used for these purposes initially. Microbial sources should also be investigated as these have provided cheaper sources of secondary metabolites.

Keywords: Antimicrobials, Food preservation, Phytochemicals

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Authors: S. Safi, A. Zeroual

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In this paper we propose a family of algorithms based on 3rd and 4th order cumulants for blind single-input single-output (SISO) Non-Minimum Phase (NMP) Finite Impulse Response (FIR) channel estimation driven by non-Gaussian signal. The input signal represents the signal used in 10GBASE-T (or IEEE 802.3an-2006) as a Tomlinson-Harashima Precoded (THP) version of random Pulse-Amplitude Modulation with 16 discrete levels (PAM-16). The proposed algorithms are tested using three non-minimum phase channel for different Signal-to-Noise Ratios (SNR) and for different data input length. Numerical simulation results are presented to illustrate the performance of the proposed algorithms.

Keywords: Higher Order Cumulants, Channel identification, Ethernet communication.

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Authors: Young-Seok Choi

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This paper presents a multiscale information measure of Electroencephalogram (EEG) for analysis with a short data length. A multiscale extension of permutation entropy (MPE) is capable of fully reflecting the dynamical characteristics of EEG across different temporal scales. However, MPE yields an imprecise estimation due to coarse-grained procedure at large scales. We present an improved MPE measure to estimate entropy more accurately with a short time series. By computing entropies of all coarse-grained time series and averaging those at each scale, it leads to the modified MPE (MMPE) which provides an enhanced accuracy as compared to MPE. Simulation and experimental studies confirmed that MMPE has proved its capability over MPE in terms of accuracy.

Keywords: Multiscale entropy, permutation entropy, EEG, seizure.

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Authors: Chaw Su Mon

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Abstract— The paper presents a preliminary study on modeling and estimation of basic wind speed ( extreme wind gusts ) for the consideration of vulnerability and design of building in Ayeyarwady Region. The establishment of appropriate design wind speeds is a critical step towards the calculation of design wind loads for structures. In this paper the extreme value analysis of this prediction work is based on the anemometer data (1970-2009) maintained by the department of meteorology and hydrology of Pathein. Statistical and probabilistic approaches are used to derive formulas for estimating 3-second gusts from recorded data (10-minute sustained mean wind speeds).

Keywords: Basic Wind Speed, Building, Gusts, Statistical and probabilistic approaches

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Authors: Muzaffer Borekci, Murat S. Kirçil

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Predicting the collapse potential of a structure during earthquakes is an important issue in earthquake engineering. Many researchers proposed different methods to assess the collapse potential of structures under the effect of strong ground motions. However most of them did not consider degradation and softening effect in hysteretic behavior. In this study, collapse potential of SDOF systems caused by dynamic instability with stiffness and strength degradation has been investigated. An equation was proposed for the estimation of collapse period of SDOF system which is a limit value of period for dynamic instability. If period of the considered SDOF system is shorter than the collapse period then the relevant system exhibits dynamic instability and collapse occurs.

Keywords: Collapse, degradation, dynamic instability, seismic response.

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Authors: Shazia Javed, Noor Atinah Ahmad

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The householder RLS (HRLS) algorithm is an O(N2) algorithm which recursively updates an arbitrary square-root of the input data correlation matrix and naturally provides the LS weight vector. A data dependent householder matrix is applied for such an update. In this paper a recursive estimate of the eigenvalue spread and misalignment of the algorithm is presented at a very low computational cost. Misalignment is found to be highly sensitive to the eigenvalue spread of input signals, output noise of the system and exponential window. Simulation results show noticeable degradation in the misalignment by increase in eigenvalue spread as well as system-s output noise, while exponential window was kept constant.

Keywords: HRLS algorithm, eigenvalue spread, misalignment.

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Authors: Carine Cridelich, Pablo Juesas Cano, Emmanuel Ramasso, Noureddine Zerhouni, Bernd Weiler

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Safety is one of the most important considerations when buying a new car. While active safety aims at avoiding accidents, passive safety systems such as airbags and seat belts protect the occupant in case of an accident. In addition to legal regulations, organizations like Euro NCAP provide consumers with an independent assessment of the safety performance of cars and drive the development of safety systems in automobile industry. Those ratings are mainly based on injury assessment reference values derived from physical parameters measured in dummies during a car crash test. The components and sub-systems of a safety system are designed to achieve the required restraint performance. Sled tests and other types of tests are then carried out by car makers and their suppliers to confirm the protection level of the safety system. A Knowledge Discovery in Databases (KDD) process is proposed in order to minimize the number of tests. The KDD process is based on the data emerging from sled tests according to Euro NCAP specifications. About 30 parameters of the passive safety systems from different data sources (crash data, dummy protocol) are first analysed together with experts opinions. A procedure is proposed to manage missing data and validated on real data sets. Finally, a procedure is developed to estimate a set of rough initial parameters of the passive system before testing aiming at reducing the number of tests.

Keywords: KDD process, passive safety systems, sled test, dummy injury assessment reference values, frontal impact

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Authors: Yuzhi Cai

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In this paper, we discuss a Bayesian approach to quantile autoregressive (QAR) time series model estimation and forecasting. Together with a combining forecasts technique, we then predict USD to GBP currency exchange rates. Combined forecasts contain all the information captured by the fitted QAR models at different quantile levels and are therefore better than those obtained from individual models. Our results show that an unequally weighted combining method performs better than other forecasting methodology. We found that a median AR model can perform well in point forecasting when the predictive density functions are symmetric. However, in practice, using the median AR model alone may involve the loss of information about the data captured by other QAR models. We recommend that combined forecasts should be used whenever possible.

Keywords: Exchange rate, quantile regression, combining forecasts.

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Authors: Walid Aydi, Nouri Masmoudi, Lotfi Kamoun

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Images of human iris contain specular highlights due to the reflective properties of the cornea. This corneal reflection causes many errors not only in iris and pupil center estimation but also to locate iris and pupil boundaries especially for methods that use active contour. Each iris recognition system has four steps: Segmentation, Normalization, Encoding and Matching. In order to address the corneal reflection, a novel reflection removal method is proposed in this paper. Comparative experiments of two existing methods for reflection removal method are evaluated on CASIA iris image databases V3. The experimental results reveal that the proposed algorithm provides higher performance in reflection removal.

Keywords: iris, pupil, specular highlights, reflection removal

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