Search results for: mileage based reliability

Authors: Jean-Pierre Dubois, Jihad S. Daba, M. Nader, C. El Ferkh

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GSM has undoubtedly become the most widespread cellular technology and has established itself as one of the most promising technology in wireless communication. The next generation of mobile telephones had also become more powerful and innovative in a way that new services related to the user-s location will arise. Other than the 911 requirements for emergency location initiated by the Federal Communication Commission (FCC) of the United States, GSM positioning can be highly integrated in cellular communication technology for commercial use. However, GSM positioning is facing many challenges. Issues like accuracy, availability, reliability and suitable cost render the development and implementation of GSM positioning a challenging task. In this paper, we investigate the optimal mobile position tracking means. We employ an innovative scheme by integrating the Kalman filter in the localization process especially that it has great tracking characteristics. When tracking in two dimensions, Kalman filter is very powerful due to its reliable performance as it supports estimation of past, present, and future states, even when performing in unknown environments. We show that enhanced position tracking results is achieved when implementing the Kalman filter for GSM tracking.

Keywords: Cellular communication, estimation, GSM, Kalman filter, positioning

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Authors: Wernhuar Tarng, Weichian Tsai

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The major purpose of this study is to use network and multimedia technologies to build a game-based learning system for junior high school students to apply in learning “World Geography" through the “role-playing" game approaches. This study first investigated the motivation and habits of junior high school students to use the Internet and online games, and then designed a game-based learning system according to situated and game-based learning theories. A teaching experiment was conducted to analyze the learning effectiveness of students on the game-based learning system and the major factors affecting their learning. A questionnaire survey was used to understand the students- attitudes towards game-based learning. The results showed that the game-based learning system can enhance students- learning, but the gender of students and their habits in using the Internet have no significant impact on learning. Game experience has a significant impact on students- learning, and the higher the experience value the better the effectiveness of their learning. The results of questionnaire survey also revealed that the system can increase students- motivation and interest in learning "World Geography".

Keywords: Game-based learning, situated learning, role playing, learning effectiveness, learning motivation.

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Authors: Ahmad Al-Omari, Osama Khreis, Ahmad M. K. Dagamseh, Abdullah Ababneh, Kevin Lear

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High-speed infrared vertical-cavity surface-emitting laser diodes (VCSELs) with Cu-plated heat sinks were fabricated and tested. VCSELs with 10 mm aperture diameter and 4 mm of electroplated copper demonstrated a -3dB modulation bandwidth (f_-3dB) of 14 GHz and a resonance frequency (f_R) of 9.5 GHz at a bias current density (J_bias) of only 4.3 kA/cm², which corresponds to an improved f_-3dB²/J_bias ratio of 44 GHz²/kA/cm². At higher and lower bias current densities, the f_-3dB²/ J_bias ratio decreased to about 30 GHz²/kA/cm² and 18 GHz²/kA/cm², respectively. Examination of the analogue modulation response demonstrated that the presented VCSELs displayed a steady f_-3dB/ f_R ratio of 1.41±10% over the whole range of the bias current (1.3I_th to 6.2I_th). The devices also demonstrated a maximum modulation bandwidth (f_{-3dB max}) of more than 16 GHz at a bias current less than the industrial bias current standard for reliability by 25%.

Keywords: Current density, High-speed VCSELs, Modulation bandwidth, Small-Signal Characteristics, Thermal impedance, Vertical-cavity surface-emitting lasers.

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Authors: Renkai Wang, Tingcun Wei

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In this paper, a digital control algorithm based on delta-operator is presented for high-frequency digitally-controlled DC-DC switching converters. The stability and the controlling accuracy of the DC-DC switching converters are improved by using the digital control algorithm based on delta-operator without increasing the hardware circuit scale. The design method of voltage compensator in delta-domain using PID (Proportion-Integration- Differentiation) control is given in this paper, and the simulation results based on Simulink platform are provided, which have verified the theoretical analysis results very well. It can be concluded that, the presented control algorithm based on delta-operator has better stability and controlling accuracy, and easier hardware implementation than the existed control algorithms based on z-operator, therefore it can be used for the voltage compensator design in high-frequency digitally- controlled DC-DC switching converters.

Keywords: Digitally-controlled DC-DC switching converter, finite word length, control algorithm based on delta-operator, high-frequency, stability.

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Authors: Li-Chung Su, Chia-Yu Chen, Tzu-Yuan Lai, Sheng-Jye Hwang

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Mechanical design of the thin-film solar framed module and mounting system is important to enhance module reliability and to increase areas of applications. The stress induced by different mounting positions played a main role controlling the stability of the whole mechanical structure. From the finite element method, under the pressure from the back of module, the stress at Lc (center point of the Long frame) increased and the stresses at Center, Corner and Sc (center point of the Short frame) decreased while the mounting position was away from the center of the module. In addition, not only the stress of the glass but also the stress of the frame decreased. Accordingly it was safer to mount in the position away from the center of the module. The emphasis of designing frame system of the module was on the upper support of the Short frame. Strength of the overall structure and design of the corner were also important due to the complexity of the stress in the Long frame.

Keywords: Finite element method, Framed module, Mountingposition

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Authors: Mohammad Darzi, Ali AsgharLiaei, Mahdi Hosseini, HabibollahAsghari

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This article addresses feature selection for breast cancer diagnosis. The present process contains a wrapper approach based on Genetic Algorithm (GA) and case-based reasoning (CBR). GA is used for searching the problem space to find all of the possible subsets of features and CBR is employed to estimate the evaluation result of each subset. The results of experiment show that the proposed model is comparable to the other models on Wisconsin breast cancer (WDBC) dataset.

Keywords: Case-based reasoning; Breast cancer diagnosis; Genetic algorithm; Wrapper feature selection

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Authors: Amin Almasi

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Design and evaluation of reciprocating compressors should include a pulsation study. The object is to ensure that predicted pulsation levels meet guidelines to limit vibration, shaking forces, noise, associated pressure drops, horsepower losses and fabrication cost and time to acceptable levels. This paper explains procedures and recommendations to select and size pulsation suppression devices to obtain optimum arrangement in terms of pulsation, vibration, shaking forces, performance, reliability, safety, operation, maintenance and commercial conditions. Model and advanced formulations for pulsation study are presented. The effect of the full fluid dynamic model on the prediction of pulsation waves and resulting frequency spectrum distributions are discussed. Advanced and optimum methods of controlling pulsations are highlighted. Useful recommendations and guidelines for pulsation control, piping pulsation analysis, pulsation vessel design, shaking forces, low pressure drop orifices, pulsation study report and devices to mitigate pulsation and shaking problems are discussed.

Keywords: Pulsation, Reciprocating Compressor.

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Authors: Bita Mashayekhi, Marjan Fayyazi, Parisa Sefati

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Audit quality is a popular topic in accounting and auditing research because recent decades’ financial crises reduce the reliability of financial reports to public investors and cause significant doubt about the audit profession. Therefore, doing research to identify effective factors in improving audit quality is necessary for bringing back public investors’ trust to financial statements as well as audit reports. In this study, we explore the relationship between audit rotation and audit quality. For this purpose, we employ the Duff (2009) model of audit quality to measure audit quality and use a questionnaire survey of 27 audit service quality attributes. Our results show that there is a negative relationship between auditor’s rotation and audit quality as we consider the auditor’s reputation, capability, assurance, experience, and responsiveness as surrogates for audit quality. There is no evidence for verifying a same relationship when we use the auditor’s independence and expertise for measuring audit quality.

Keywords: Audit quality, auditor’s rotation, reputation, capability, assurance, experience, responsiveness, independence, expertise.

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Authors: Rohit Gupta, Ruchika

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In this paper, a PSO based fractional order PID (FOPID) controller is proposed for concentration control of an isothermal Continuous Stirred Tank Reactor (CSTR) problem. CSTR is used to carry out chemical reactions in industries, which possesses complex nonlinear dynamic characteristics. Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm technique, which is an evolutionary optimization technique based on the movement and intelligence of swarm is proposed for tuning of the controller for this system. Comparisons of proposed controller with conventional and fuzzy based controller illustrate the superiority of proposed PSO-FOPID controller.

Keywords: CSTR, Fractional Order PID Controller, Partical Swarm Optimization.

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Authors: Mussarat Abdullah, Fazal Wahab

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Data hiding into text documents itself involves pretty complexities due to the nature of text documents. A robust text watermarking scheme targeting an object based environment is presented in this research. The heart of the proposed solution describes the concept of watermarking an object based text document where each and every text string is entertained as a separate object having its own set of properties. Taking advantage of the z-ordering of objects watermark is applied with the z-axis letting zero fidelity disturbances to the text. Watermark sequence of bits generated against user key is hashed with selected properties of given document, to determine the bit sequence to embed. Bits are embedded along z-axis and the document has no fidelity issues when printed, scanned or photocopied.

Keywords: Digital Watermarking, Object Based Environment, Watermark, z-ordering.

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Authors: Mohammed Nafie

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Decision Feedback equalizers (DFEs) usually outperform linear equalizers for channels with intersymbol interference. However, the DFE performance is highly dependent on the availability of reliable past decisions. Hence, in coded systems, where reliable decisions are only available after decoding the full block, the performance of the DFE will be affected. A symbol based DFE is a DFE that only uses the decision after the block is decoded. In this paper we derive the optimal settings of both the feedforward and feedback taps of the symbol based equalizer. We present a novel symbol based DFE filterbank, and derive its taps optimal settings. We also show that it outperforms the classic DFE in terms of complexity and/or performance.

Keywords: Coding, DFE, Equalization, Exponential Channelmodels.

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Authors: Göksu Gözen Citak

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The process of constructing a scale measuring the attitudes of youth toward violence on televisions is reported. A 30-item draft attitude scale was applied to a working group of 232 students attending the Faculty of Educational Sciences at Ankara University between the years 2005-2006. To introduce the construct validity and dimensionality of the scale, exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis was applied to the data. Results of the exploratory factor analysis showed that the scale had three factors that accounted for 58,44% (22,46% for the first, 22,15% for the second and 13,83% for the third factor) of the common variance. It is determined that the first factor considered issues related individual effects of violence on televisions, the second factor concerned issues related social effects of violence on televisions and the third factor concerned issues related violence on television programs. Results of the confirmatory factor analysis showed that all the items under each factor are fitting the concerning factors structure. An alpha reliability of 0,90 was estimated for the whole scale. It is concluded that the scale is valid and reliable.

Keywords: Attitudes toward violence, confirmatory factor analysis, constructing attitude scale, exploratory factor analysis, violence on televisions.

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Authors: Amir Ikram, Qin Su, Muhammad Fiaz, Muhammad Waqas Shabbir

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Women entrepreneurship witnessed a healthy rise in the last decade or so, and the scenario in Pakistan is not different. However female leaders are facing various, cultural, career oriented, and professional challenges. The study investigates the impact of social and industry-specific challenges on female entrepreneurship; social challenges was evaluated in terms of culture, and industry-specific challenges was measured in terms of team management and career growth. Purposive sampling was employed to collect data from 75 multicultural organizations operating in the culturally diverse and historic city of Lahore, Pakistan. Cronbach’s alpha was conducted to endorse the reliability of survey questionnaire, while correlation and regression analysis were used to test hypotheses. Industry-specific challenges were found to be more significant as compared to cultural factors. The paper also highlights the importance of female entrepreneurship for emerging economies, and suggests that bringing women to mainstream professions can lead to economic success.

Keywords: Cultural challenges, emerging economy, female entrepreneurship, leadership.

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Authors: K. K. Yong, R. Mahmud, C. S. Woo

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Data mining and knowledge engineering have become a tough task due to the availability of large amount of data in the web nowadays. Validity and reliability of data also become a main debate in knowledge acquisition. Besides, acquiring knowledge from different languages has become another concern. There are many language translators and corpora developed but the function of these translators and corpora are usually limited to certain languages and domains. Furthermore, search results from engines with traditional 'keyword' approach are no longer satisfying. More intelligent knowledge engineering agents are needed. To address to these problems, a system known as Multilingual Word Semantic Network is proposed. This system adapted semantic network to organize words according to concepts and relations. The system also uses open source as the development philosophy to enable the native language speakers and experts to contribute their knowledge to the system. The contributed words are then defined and linked using lexical and semantic relations. Thus, related words and derivatives can be identified and linked. From the outcome of the system implementation, it contributes to the development of semantic web and knowledge engineering.

Keywords: Multilingual, semantic network, intelligent knowledge engineering.

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Authors: Zeinab Ghasemi, S. Amirhassan Monadjemi, Abbas Vafaei

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This paper presents a comparative analysis of a new unsupervised PCA-based technique for steel plates texture segmentation towards defect detection. The proposed scheme called Variance Based Component Analysis or VBCA employs PCA for feature extraction, applies a feature reduction algorithm based on variance of eigenpictures and classifies the pixels as defective and normal. While the classic PCA uses a clusterer like Kmeans for pixel clustering, VBCA employs thresholding and some post processing operations to label pixels as defective and normal. The experimental results show that proposed algorithm called VBCA is 12.46% more accurate and 78.85% faster than the classic PCA.

Keywords: Principal Component Analysis; Variance Based Component Analysis; Defect Detection; Texture Segmentation.

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Authors: D. Hassell, D. De Focatiis

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This paper presents work on the application of wiki based coursework for a fourth-year engineering module delivered as part of both a MEng and MSc programme in Chemical Engineering. The module was taught with an equivalent structure simultaneously on two separate campuses, one in the United Kingdom (UK) and one in Malaysia, and the subsequent results were compared. Student feedback was sought via questionnaires, with 45 respondents from the UK and 49 from Malaysia. Results include discussion on; perceived difficulty; student enjoyment and experiences; differences between MEng and MSc students; differences between cohorts on different campuses. The response of students to the use of wiki-based coursework was found to vary based on their experiences and background, with UK students being generally more positive on its application than those in Malaysia.

Keywords: Engineering education, student differences, student learning, web-based coursework.

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Authors: Rajinder Singh, Ram Valluru

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Chain Ladder (CL) method, Expected Loss Ratio (ELR) method and Bornhuetter-Ferguson (BF) method, in addition to more complex transition-rate modeling, are commonly used actuarial reserving methods in general insurance. There is limited published research about their relative performance in the context of Mortgage Insurance (MI). In our experience, these traditional techniques pose unique challenges and do not provide stable claim estimates for medium to longer term liabilities. The relative strengths and weaknesses among various alternative approaches revolve around: stability in the recent loss development pattern, sufficiency and reliability of loss development data, and agreement/disagreement between reported losses to date and ultimate loss estimate. CL method results in volatile reserve estimates, especially for accident periods with little development experience. The ELR method breaks down especially when ultimate loss ratios are not stable and predictable. While the BF method provides a good tradeoff between the loss development approach (CL) and ELR, the approach generates claim development and ultimate reserves that are disconnected from the ever-to-date (ETD) development experience for some accident years that have more development experience. Further, BF is based on subjective a priori assumption. The fundamental shortcoming of these methods is their inability to model exogenous factors, like the economy, which impact various cohorts at the same chronological time but at staggered points along their life-time development. This paper proposes an alternative approach of parametrizing the loss development curve and using logistic regression to generate the ultimate loss estimate for each homogeneous group (accident year or delinquency period). The methodology was tested on an actual MI claim development dataset where various cohorts followed a sigmoidal trend, but levels varied substantially depending upon the economic and operational conditions during the development period spanning over many years. The proposed approach provides the ability to indirectly incorporate such exogenous factors and produce more stable loss forecasts for reserving purposes as compared to the traditional CL and BF methods.

Keywords: Actuarial loss reserving techniques, logistic regression, parametric function, volatility.

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Authors: Jayaletchumi T. Sambantha Moorthy, Suhaimi bin Ibrahim, Mohd Naz’ri Mahrin

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Most quality models have defined usability as a significant factor that leads to improving product acceptability, increasing user satisfaction, improving product reliability, and also financially benefitting companies. Usability is also the best factor that balances both the technical and human aspects of a software product, which is an important aspect in defining quality during software development process. A usability risk consist risk factors that could impact the usability of a software product thereby contributing to negative user experiences and causing a possible software product failure. Hence, it is important to mitigate and reduce usability risks in the software development process itself. By managing possible usability risks in software development process, failure of software product could be reduced. Therefore, this research uses the Delphi method to identify mitigation plans for reducing potential usability risks. The Delphi method is conducted with seven experts from the field of risk management and software development.

Keywords: Usability, Usability Risk, Risk Management, Risk Mitigation, Delphi Method.

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Authors: Omair Ghori, Anton Stadler, Stefan Wilk, Wolfgang Effelsberg

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Fire-related incidents account for extensive loss of life and material damage. Quick and reliable detection of occurring fires has high real world implications. Whereas a major research focus lies on the detection of outdoor fires, indoor camera-based fire detection is still an open issue. Cameras in combination with computer vision helps to detect flames and smoke more quickly than conventional fire detectors. In this work, we present a computer vision-based smoke detection algorithm based on contrast changes and a multi-step classification. This work accelerates computer vision-based fire detection considerably in comparison with classical indoor-fire detection.

Keywords: Contrast analysis, early fire detection, video smoke detection, video surveillance.

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Authors: A.Muthuramalingam, S.Himavathi

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Space Vector Modulation (SVM) is an optimum Pulse Width Modulation (PWM) technique for an inverter used in a variable frequency drive applications. It is computationally rigorous and hence limits the inverter switching frequency. Increase in switching frequency can be achieved using Neural Network (NN) based SVM, implemented on application specific chips. This paper proposes a neural network based SVM technique for a Voltage Source Inverter (VSI). The network proposed is independent of switching frequency. Different architectures are investigated keeping the total number of neurons constant. The performance of the inverter is compared for various switching frequencies for different architectures of NN based SVM. From the results obtained, the network with minimum resource and appropriate word length is identified. The bit precision required for this application is identified. The network with 8-bit precision is implemented in the IC XCV 400 and the results are presented. The performance of NN based general purpose SVM with higher bit precision is discussed.

Keywords: NN based SVM, FPGA Implementation, LayerMultiplexing, NN structure and Resource Reduction, PerformanceEvaluation

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Authors: Divya Haridas, C. B. Sobhan

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Laser interferometric methods have been utilized for the measurement of natural convection heat transfer from a heated vertical flat plate, in the investigation presented here. The study mainly aims at comparing two different fringe orientations in the wedge fringe setting of Mach-Zehnder interferometer (MZI), used for the measurements. The interference fringes are set in horizontal and vertical orientations with respect to the heated surface, and two different fringe analysis methods, namely the stepping method and the method proposed by Naylor and Duarte, are used to obtain the heat transfer coefficients. The experimental system is benchmarked with theoretical results, thus validating its reliability in heat transfer measurements. The interference fringe patterns are analyzed digitally using MATLAB 7 and MOTIC Plus softwares, which ensure improved efficiency in fringe analysis, hence reducing the errors associated with conventional fringe tracing. The work also discuss the relative merits and limitations of the two methods used.

Keywords: MZI, Natural Convection, Naylor Method, Vertical Flat Plate.

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Authors: Costin Badica, Maria Ganzha, Maciej Gawinecki, Pawel Kobzdej, Marcin Paprzycki

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Recently, we have presented an initial implementation of a model agent-based e-commerce system, which utilized a simple price negotiation mechanism–English Auction. In this note we discuss how a Dutch Auction involving multiple units of a product can be included in our system. We present UML diagrams of agents involved in price negotiations and briefly discuss rule-based mechanism exemplifying Dutch Auction.

Keywords: e-commerce, rule-based price negotiation mechanism, Dutch Auction, agent system.

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Authors: Aurelie Aurilla Bechina Arntzen

Abstract:

The last decade has seen an early majority of people The last decade, the role of the of the information communication technologies has increased in improving the social and business life of people. Today, it is recognized that game could contribute to enhance virtual rehabilitation by better engaging patients. Our research study aims to develop a game based system enhancing cognitive and physical capabilities of elderly people. To this end, the project aims to develop a low cost hand held system based on existing game such as Wii, PSP, or Xbox. This paper discusses the concepts and requirements for developing such game for elderly people. Based on the requirement elicitation, we intend to develop a prototype related to sport and dance activities.

Keywords: Elderly people, Game based learning system, Health systems, rehabilitation

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Authors: Sungho Kim, Chaehoon Park, Yukyung Choi, Soon Kwon, In So Kweon

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In this paper, a novel corner detection method is presented to stably extract geometrically important corners. Intensity-based corner detectors such as the Harris corner can detect corners in noisy environments but has inaccurate corner position and misses the corners of obtuse angles. Edge-based corner detectors such as Curvature Scale Space can detect structural corners but show unstable corner detection due to incomplete edge detection in noisy environments. The proposed image-based direct curvature estimation can overcome limitations in both inaccurate structural corner detection of the Harris corner detector (intensity-based) and the unstable corner detection of Curvature Scale Space caused by incomplete edge detection. Various experimental results validate the robustness of the proposed method.

Keywords: Feature, intensity, contour, hybrid.

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Authors: Sherry S. Herron, Douglas Magomo, Paula Gossard

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In this article, we discuss project-based learning in the context of a wheel garden as an instructional tool in science and mathematics education. A wheel garden provides multiple opportunities to teach across the curriculum, to integrate disciplines, and to promote community involvement. Grounded in the theoretical framework of constructivism, the wheel garden provides a multidisciplined educational tool that provides a hands-on, non-traditional arena for learning. We will examine some of the cultural, art, science, and mathematics connections made with this project.

Keywords: Art education, cross-curriculum instruction, multicultural education, project-based learning, school gardens, task based learning.

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Authors: Design of 3-Step Skew BLAC Motor for Better Performance in Electric Power Steering System

Abstract:

In Electric Power Steering (EPS), spoke type Brushless AC (BLAC) motors offer distinct advantages over other electric motor types in terms torque smoothness, reliability and efficiency. This paper deals with the shape optimization of spoke type BLAC motor, in order to reduce cogging torque. This paper examines 3 steps skewing rotor angle, optimizing rotor core edge and rotor overlap length for reducing cogging torque in spoke type BLAC motor. The methods were applied to existing machine designs and their performance was calculated using finite- element analysis (FEA). Prototypes of the machine designs were constructed and experimental results obtained. It is shown that the FEA predicted the cogging torque to be nearly reduce using those methods.

Keywords: EPS, 3-Step skewing, spoke type BLAC, cogging torque, FEA, optimization.

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Authors: Amin Safari, Hossein Shayeghi

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This paper presents a novel approach for tuning unified power flow controller (UPFC) based damping controller in order to enhance the damping of power system low frequency oscillations. The design problem of damping controller is formulated as an optimization problem according to the eigenvalue-based objective function which is solved using iteration particle swarm optimization (IPSO). The effectiveness of the proposed controller is demonstrated through eigenvalue analysis and nonlinear time-domain simulation studies under a wide range of loading conditions. The simulation study shows that the designed controller by IPSO performs better than CPSO in finding the solution. Moreover, the system performance analysis under different operating conditions show that the δE based controller is superior to the mB based controller.

Keywords: UPFC, Optimization Problem, Iteration ParticleSwarm Optimization, Damping Controller, Low FrequencyOscillations.

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Authors: B. Engel, Sara Salman Hassan Al-Maeeni

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Human consumption of the Earth's resources increases the need for a sustainable development as an important ecological, social, and economic theme. Re-engineering of machine tools, in terms of design and failure analysis, is defined as steps performed on an obsolete machine to return it to a new machine with the warranty that matches the customer requirement. To understand the future fatigue behavior of the used machine components, it is important to investigate the possible causes of machine parts failure through design, surface, and material inspections. In this study, the failure modes of the shaft of the rotary draw bending machine are inspected. Furthermore, stress and deflection analysis of the shaft subjected to combined torsion and bending loads are carried out by an analytical method and compared with a finite element analysis method. The theoretical fatigue strength, correction factors, and fatigue life sustained by the shaft before damaged are estimated by creating a stress-cycle (S-N) diagram. In conclusion, it is seen that the shaft can work in the second life, but it needs some surface treatments to increase the reliability and fatigue life.

Keywords: Failure analysis, fatigue life, FEM analysis, shaft, stress analysis.

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Authors: Soumia Ichoua

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In this paper, we investigate the strategic stochastic air traffic flow management problem which seeks to balance airspace capacity and demand under weather disruptions. The goal is to reduce the need for myopic tactical decisions that do not account for probabilistic knowledge about the NAS near-future states. We present and discuss a scenario-based modeling approach based on a time-space stochastic process to depict weather disruption occurrences in the NAS. A solution framework is also proposed along with a distributed implementation aimed at overcoming scalability problems. Issues related to this implementation are also discussed.

Keywords: Air traffic management, sample average approximation, scenario-based approach, stochastic capacity.

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Authors: Tahseen Ahmed Jilani, Syed Muhammad Aqil Burney, C. Ardil

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In the last 15 years, a number of methods have been proposed for forecasting based on fuzzy time series. Most of the fuzzy time series methods are presented for forecasting of enrollments at the University of Alabama. However, the forecasting accuracy rates of the existing methods are not good enough. In this paper, we compared our proposed new method of fuzzy time series forecasting with existing methods. Our method is based on frequency density based partitioning of the historical enrollment data. The proposed method belongs to the kth order and time-variant methods. The proposed method can get the best forecasting accuracy rate for forecasting enrollments than the existing methods.

Keywords: Fuzzy logical groups, fuzzified enrollments, fuzzysets, fuzzy time series.

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