Search results for: complex flow simulation
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 6436

Search results for: complex flow simulation

5746 Simulation of Sample Paths of Non Gaussian Stationary Random Fields

Authors: Fabrice Poirion, Benedicte Puig

Abstract:

Mathematical justifications are given for a simulation technique of multivariate nonGaussian random processes and fields based on Rosenblatt-s transformation of Gaussian processes. Different types of convergences are given for the approaching sequence. Moreover an original numerical method is proposed in order to solve the functional equation yielding the underlying Gaussian process autocorrelation function.

Keywords: Simulation, nonGaussian, random field, multivariate, stochastic process.

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5745 Fibers Presence Effects on Air Flow of Attenuator of Spun-Bond Production System

Authors: Nasser Ghassembaglou, Abdullah Bolek, Oktay Yilmaz, Ertan Oznergiz, Hikmet Kocabas, Safak Yilmaz

Abstract:

Different designs of attenuator systems have been studied in this research; new analysis have been done on existed designs considering fibers effect on air flow; it was comprehended that, at fibers presence, there is an air flow which agglomerates fibers as a negative effect. So some new representations have been designed and CFD analysis has been done on them. Afterwards, one of these representations selected as the most optimum and effective design which is brought in this paper.

Keywords: Attenuator, CFD, nanofiber, spun-bond.

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5744 Dynamic Modeling and Simulation of Threephase Small Power Induction Motor

Authors: Nyein Nyein Soe, Thet Thet Han Yee, Soe Sandar Aung

Abstract:

This paper is proposed the dynamic simulation of small power induction motor based on Mathematical modeling. The dynamic simulation is one of the key steps in the validation of the design process of the motor drive systems and it is needed for eliminating inadvertent design mistakes and the resulting error in the prototype construction and testing. This paper demonstrates the simulation of steady-state performance of induction motor by MATLAB Program Three phase 3 hp induction motor is modeled and simulated with SIMULINK model.

Keywords: Squirrel cage induction motor, modeling andsimulation, MATLAB software, torque, speed.

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5743 Performance Analysis of Fuzzy Logic Based Unified Power Flow Controller

Authors: Lütfü Saribulut, Mehmet Tümay, İlyas Eker

Abstract:

FACTS devices are used to control the power flow, to increase the transmission capacity and to optimize the stability of the power system. One of the most widely used FACTS devices is Unified Power Flow Controller (UPFC). The controller used in the control mechanism has a significantly effects on controlling of the power flow and enhancing the system stability of UPFC. According to this, the capability of UPFC is observed by using different control mechanisms based on P, PI, PID and fuzzy logic controllers (FLC) in this study. FLC was developed by taking consideration of Takagi- Sugeno inference system in the decision process and Sugeno-s weighted average method in the defuzzification process. Case studies with different operating conditions are applied to prove the ability of UPFC on controlling the power flow and the effectiveness of controllers on the performance of UPFC. PSCAD/EMTDC program is used to create the FLC and to simulate UPFC model.

Keywords: FACTS, Fuzzy Logic Controller, UPFC.

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5742 Development of Vibration Sensor with Wide Frequency Range Based on Condenser Microphone -Estimation System for Flow Rate in Water Pipes-

Authors: Hironori Kakuta, Kajiro Watanabe, Yosuke Kurihara

Abstract:

Water leakage is a serious problem in the maintenance of a waterworks facility. Monitoring the water flow rate is one way to locate leakage. However, conventional flowmeters such as the wet-type flowmeter and the clamp-on type ultrasonic flowmeter require additional construction for their installation and are therefore quite expensive. This paper proposes a novel estimation system for the flow rate in a water pipeline, which employs a vibration sensor. This assembly can be attached to any water pipeline without the need for additional high-cost construction. The vibration sensor is designed based on a condenser microphone. This sensor detects vibration caused by water flowing through a pipeline. It is possible to estimate the water flow rate by measuring the amplitude of the output signal from the vibration sensor. We confirmed the validity of the proposed sensing system experimentally.

Keywords: Condenser microphone, Flow rate estimation, Piping vibration, Water pipe.

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5741 Computation of Global Voltage Stability Margin in a Practical Power Network Incorporating FACTS in the OPF Frame Work

Authors: P. Nagendra, S. Halder nee Dey, S. Paul, T. Datta

Abstract:

This paper presents a methodology to assess the voltage stability status combined with optimal power flow technique using an instantaneous two-bus equivalent model of power system incorporating static var compensator (SVC) and thyristor controlled series compensator (TCSC) controllers. There by, a generalized global voltage stability indicator being developed has been applied to a robust practical Indian Eastern Grid 203-bus system. Simulation results have proved that the proposed methodology is promising to assess voltage stability of any power system at any operating point in global scenario. Voltage stability augmentation with the application of SVC at the weakest bus and TCSC at critical line connected to the weakest bus is compared with the system having no compensation. In the proposed network equivalent model the generators have been modeled more accurately considering economic criteria.

Keywords: Equivalent two-bus model, global voltage security indicator, optimal power flow, SVC, TCSC.

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5740 Quantitative Estimation of Periodicities in Lyari River Flow Routing

Authors: Rana Khalid Naeem, Asif Mansoor

Abstract:

The hydrologic time series data display periodic structure and periodic autoregressive process receives considerable attention in modeling of such series. In this communication long term record of monthly waste flow of Lyari river is utilized to quantify by using PAR modeling technique. The parameters of model are estimated by using Frances & Paap methodology. This study shows that periodic autoregressive model of order 2 is the most parsimonious model for assessing periodicity in waste flow of the river. A careful statistical analysis of residuals of PAR (2) model is used for establishing goodness of fit. The forecast by using proposed model confirms significance and effectiveness of the model.

Keywords: Diagnostic checks, Lyari river, Model selection, Monthly waste flow, Periodicity, Periodic autoregressive model.

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5739 Behavior of Droplets in Microfluidic System with T-Junction

Authors: A. Guellati, F-M Lounis, N. Guemras, K. Daoud

Abstract:

Micro droplet formation is considered as a growing emerging area of research due to its wide-range application in chemistry as well as biology. The mechanism of micro droplet formation using two immiscible liquids running through a T-junction has been widely studied. We believe that the flow of these two immiscible phases can be of greater important factor that could have an impact on out-flow hydrodynamic behavior, the droplets generated and the size of the droplets. In this study, the type of the capillary tubes used also represents another important factor that can have an impact on the generation of micro droplets. The tygon capillary tubing with hydrophilic inner surface doesn't allow regular out-flows due to the fact that the continuous phase doesn't adhere to the wall of the capillary inner surface. Teflon capillary tubing, presents better wettability than tygon tubing, and allows to obtain steady and regular regimes of out-flow, and the micro droplets are homogeneoussize. The size of the droplets is directly dependent on the flows of the continuous and dispersed phases. Thus, as increasing the flow of the continuous phase, to flow of the dispersed phase stationary, the size of the drops decreases. Inversely, while increasing the flow of the dispersed phase, to flow of the continuous phase stationary, the size of the droplet increases.

Keywords: Microfluidic system, micro droplets generation, T-junction.

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5738 Influence of After Body Shape on the Performance of Blunt Shaped Bodies as Vortex Shedders

Authors: Lavish Ordia, A. Venugopal, Amit Agrawal, S. V. Prabhu

Abstract:

The present study explores flow visualization experiments with various blunt shaped bluff bodies placed inside a circular pipe. The bodies mainly comprise of modifications of trapezoidal cylinder, most widely used in practical applications, such as vortex flowmeters. The present configuration possesses the feature of both internal and external flows with low aspect ratio. The vortex dynamics of bluff bodies in such configuration is seldom reported in the literature. Dye injection technique is employed to visualize the complex vortex formation mechanism behind the bluff bodies. The influence of orientation, slit and after body shape is studied in an attempt to obtain better understanding of the vortex formation mechanism. Various wake parameters like Strouhal number, vortex formation length and wake width are documented for these shapes. Vortex formation both with and without shear layer interaction is observed for most of the shapes.

Keywords: Flow visualization, Reynolds number, Strouhal number, vortex, vortex formation length, wake width.

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5737 A Tutorial on Dynamic Simulation of DC Motor and Implementation of Kalman Filter on a Floating Point DSP

Authors: Padmakumar S., Vivek Agarwal, Kallol Roy

Abstract:

With the advent of inexpensive 32 bit floating point digital signal processor-s availability in market, many computationally intensive algorithms such as Kalman filter becomes feasible to implement in real time. Dynamic simulation of a self excited DC motor using second order state variable model and implementation of Kalman Filter in a floating point DSP TMS320C6713 is presented in this paper with an objective to introduce and implement such an algorithm, for beginners. A fractional hp DC motor is simulated in both Matlab® and DSP and the results are included. A step by step approach for simulation of DC motor in Matlab® and “C" routines in CC Studio® is also given. CC studio® project file details and environmental setting requirements are addressed. This tutorial can be used with 6713 DSK, which is based on floating point DSP and CC Studio either in hardware mode or in simulation mode.

Keywords: DC motor, DSP, Dynamic simulation, Kalman Filter

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5736 Numerical Investigation of the Effect of Flow and Heat Transfer of a Semi-Cylindrical Obstacle Located in a Channel

Authors: Omer F. Can, Nevin Celik

Abstract:

In this study, a semi-cylinder obstacle placed in a channel is handled to determine the effect of flow and heat transfer around the obstacle. Both faces of the semi-cylinder are used in the numerical analysis. First, the front face of the semi-cylinder is stated perpendicular to flow, than the rear face is placed. The study is carried out numerically, by using commercial software ANSYS 11.0. The well-known κ-ε model is applied as the turbulence model. Reynolds number is in the range of 104 to 105 and air is assumed as the flowing fluid. The results showed that, heat transfer increased approximately 15 % in the front faze case, while it enhanced up to 28 % in the rear face case.

Keywords: External flow, semi-cylinder obstacle, heat transfer, friction.

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5735 Counterpropagation Neural Network for Solving Power Flow Problem

Authors: Jayendra Krishna, Laxmi Srivastava

Abstract:

Power flow (PF) study, which is performed to determine the power system static states (voltage magnitudes and voltage angles) at each bus to find the steady state operating condition of a system, is very important and is the most frequently carried out study by power utilities for power system planning, operation and control. In this paper, a counterpropagation neural network (CPNN) is proposed to solve power flow problem under different loading/contingency conditions for computing bus voltage magnitudes and angles of the power system. The counterpropagation network uses a different mapping strategy namely counterpropagation and provides a practical approach for implementing a pattern mapping task, since learning is fast in this network. The composition of the input variables for the proposed neural network has been selected to emulate the solution process of a conventional power flow program. The effectiveness of the proposed CPNN based approach for solving power flow is demonstrated by computation of bus voltage magnitudes and voltage angles for different loading conditions and single line-outage contingencies in IEEE 14-bus system.

Keywords: Admittance matrix, counterpropagation neural network, line outage contingency, power flow

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5734 A Noble Flow Rate Control based on Leaky Bucket Method for Multi-Media OBS Networks

Authors: Kentaro Miyoko, Yoshihiko Mori, Yugo Ikeda, Yoshihiro Nishino, Yong-Bok Choi, Hiromi Okada

Abstract:

Optical burst switching (OBS) has been proposed to realize the next generation Internet based on the wavelength division multiplexing (WDM) network technologies. In the OBS, the burst contention is one of the major problems. The deflection routing has been designed for resolving the problem. However, the deflection routing becomes difficult to prevent from the burst contentions as the network load becomes high. In this paper, we introduce a flow rate control methods to reduce burst contentions. We propose new flow rate control methods based on the leaky bucket algorithm and deflection routing, i.e. separate leaky bucket deflection method, and dynamic leaky bucket deflection method. In proposed methods, edge nodes which generate data bursts carry out the flow rate control protocols. In order to verify the effectiveness of the flow rate control in OBS networks, we show that the proposed methods improve the network utilization and reduce the burst loss probability through computer simulations.

Keywords: Optical burst switching, OBS, flow rate control.

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5733 Energy Consumption and GHG Production in Railway and Road Passenger Regional Transport

Authors: Martin Kendra, Tomas Skrucany, Jozef Gnap, Jan Ponicky

Abstract:

Paper deals with the modeling and simulation of energy consumption and GHG production of two different modes of regional passenger transport – road and railway. These two transport modes use the same type of fuel – diesel. Modeling and simulation of the energy consumption in transport is often used due to calculation satisfactory accuracy and cost efficiency. Paper deals with the calculation based on EN standards and information collected from technical information from vehicle producers and characteristics of tracks. Calculation included maximal theoretical capacity of bus and train and real passenger’s measurement from operation. Final energy consumption and GHG production is calculated by using software simulation. In evaluation of the simulation is used system “well to wheel”.

Keywords: Bus, energy consumption, GHG, production, simulation, train.

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5732 Flow Field Analysis of Submerged Horizontal Plate Type Breakwater

Authors: Ke Wang, Zhi-Qiang Zhang, Z. Chen

Abstract:

A submerged horizontal plate type breakwater is pointed out as an efficient wave protection device for cage culture in marine fishery. In order to reveal the wave elimination principle of this type breakwater, boundary element method is utilized to investigate this problem. The flow field and the trajectory of water particles are studied carefully. The flow field analysis shows that: the interaction of incident wave and adverse current above the plate disturbs the water domain drastically. This can slow down the horizontal velocity and vertical velocity of the water particles.

Keywords: boundary element method, plate type breakwater, flow field analysis

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5731 The Application of the Queuing Theory in the Traffic Flow of Intersection

Authors: Shuguo Yang, Xiaoyan Yang

Abstract:

It is practically significant to research the traffic flow of intersection because the capacity of intersection affects the efficiency of highway network directly. This paper analyzes the traffic conditions of an intersection in certain urban by the methods of queuing theory and statistical experiment, sets up a corresponding mathematical model and compares it with the actual values. The result shows that queuing theory is applied in the study of intersection traffic flow and it can provide references for the other similar designs.

Keywords: Intersection, Queuing theory, Statistical experiment, System metrics.

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5730 Implementation of a Low-Cost Instrumentation for an Open Cycle Wind Tunnel to Evaluate Pressure Coefficient

Authors: Cristian P. Topa, Esteban A. Valencia, Victor H. Hidalgo, Marco A. Martinez

Abstract:

Wind tunnel experiments for aerodynamic profiles display numerous advantages, such as: clean steady laminar flow, controlled environmental conditions, streamlines visualization, and real data acquisition. However, the experiment instrumentation usually is expensive, and hence, each test implies a incremented in design cost. The aim of this work is to select and implement a low-cost static pressure data acquisition system for a NACA 2412 airfoil in an open cycle wind tunnel. This work compares wind tunnel experiment with Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulation and parametric analysis. The experiment was evaluated at Reynolds of 1.65 e5, with increasing angles from -5° to 15°. The comparison between the approaches show good enough accuracy, between the experiment and CFD, additional parametric analysis results differ widely from the other methods, which complies with the lack of accuracy of the lateral approach due its simplicity.

Keywords: Wind tunnel, low cost instrumentation, experimental testing, CFD simulation.

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5729 Generating High-Accuracy Tool Path for 5-axis Flank Milling of Globoidal Spatial Cam

Authors: Li Chen, ZhouLong Li, Qing-zhen Bi, LiMin Zhu

Abstract:

A new tool path planning method for 5-axis flank milling of a globoidal indexing cam is developed in this paper. The globoidal indexing cam is a practical transmission mechanism due to its high transmission speed, accuracy and dynamic performance. Machining the cam profile is a complex and precise task. The profile surface of the globoidal cam is generated by the conjugate contact motion of the roller. The generated complex profile surface is usually machined by 5-axis point-milling method. The point-milling method is time-consuming compared with flank milling. The tool path for 5-axis flank milling of globoidal cam is developed to improve the cutting efficiency. The flank milling tool path is globally optimized according to the minimum zone criterion, and high accuracy is guaranteed. The computational example and cutting simulation finally validate the developed method.

Keywords: Globoidal cam, flank milling, LSQR, MINIMAX.

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5728 IPSO Based UPFC Robust Output Feedback Controllers for Damping of Low Frequency Oscillations

Authors: A. Safari, H. Shayeghi, H. A. Shayanfar

Abstract:

On the basis of the linearized Phillips-Herffron model of a single-machine power system, a novel method for designing unified power flow controller (UPFC) based output feedback controller is presented. The design problem of output feedback controller for UPFC is formulated as an optimization problem according to with the time domain-based objective function which is solved by iteration particle swarm optimization (IPSO) that has a strong ability to find the most optimistic results. To ensure the robustness of the proposed damping controller, the design process takes into account a wide range of operating conditions and system configurations. The simulation results prove the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed method in terms of a high performance power system. The simulation study shows that the designed controller by Iteration PSO performs better than Classical PSO in finding the solution.

Keywords: UPFC, IPSO, output feedback Controller.

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5727 Coil and Jacket's Effects on Internal Flow Behavior and Heat Transfer in Stirred Tanks

Authors: B. Lakghomi, E. Kolahchian, A. Jalali, F. Farhadi

Abstract:

Different approaches for heating\cooling of stirred tanks, coils and jackets, are investigated using computational fluid dynamics (CFD).A time-dependant sliding mesh approach is applied to simulate the flow in both conditions. The investigations are carried out under the turbulent flow conditions for a Rushton impeller and heating elements are considered isothermal. The flow behavior and temperature distribution are studied for each case and heat transfer coefficient is calculated. Results show different velocity profiles for each case. Unsteady temperature distribution is not similar for different cases .In the case of the coiled stirred vessel more uniform temperature and higher heat transfer coefficient is resulted.

Keywords: CFD, coil and jacket, heat transfer, stirred tank.

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5726 A Universal Approach for the Intuitive Control of Mobile Robots using an AR/VR-based Interface

Authors: Juergen Rossmann, Andre Kupetz, Roland Wischnewski

Abstract:

Mobile robots are used in a large field of scenarios, like exploring contaminated areas, repairing oil rigs under water, finding survivors in collapsed buildings, etc. Currently, there is no unified intuitive user interface (UI) to control such complex mobile robots. As a consequence, some scenarios are done without the exploitation of experience and intuition of human teleoperators. A novel framework has been developed to embed a flexible and modular UI into a complete 3-D virtual reality simulation system. This new approach wants to access maximum benefits of human operators. Sensor information received from the robot is prepared for an intuitive visualization. Virtual reality metaphors support the operator in his decisions. These metaphors are integrated into a real time stereo video stream. This approach is not restricted to any specific type of mobile robot and allows for the operation of different robot types with a consistent concept and user interface.

Keywords: 3-D simulation system, augmented reality, teleoperation of mobile robots, user interface.

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5725 Semi-Analytic Method in Fast Evaluation of Thermal Management Solution in Energy Storage System

Authors: Ya Lv

Abstract:

This article presents the application of the semi-analytic method (SAM) in the thermal management solution (TMS) of the energy storage system (ESS). The TMS studied in this work is fluid cooling. In fluid cooling, both effective heat conduction and heat convection are indispensable due to the heat transfer from solid to fluid. Correspondingly, an efficient TMS requires a design investigation of the following parameters: fluid inlet temperature, ESS initial temperature, fluid flow rate, working c rate, continuous working time, and materials properties. Their variation induces a change of thermal performance in the battery module, which is usually evaluated by numerical simulation. Compared to complicated computation resources and long computation time in simulation, the SAM is developed in this article to predict the thermal influence within a few seconds. In SAM, a fast prediction model is reckoned by combining numerical simulation with theoretical/empirical equations. The SAM can explore the thermal effect of boundary parameters in both steady-state and transient heat transfer scenarios within a short time. Therefore, the SAM developed in this work can simplify the design cycle of TMS and inspire more possibilities in TMS design.

Keywords: Semi-analytic method, fast prediction model, thermal influence of boundary parameters, energy storage system.

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5724 Discrimination of Modes of Double- and Single-Negative Grounded Slab

Authors: R. Borghol, T. Aguili

Abstract:

In this paper, we investigate theoretically the waves propagation in a lossless double-negative grounded slab (DNG). This study is performed by the Transverse Resonance Method (TRM). The proper or improper nature of real and complex modes is observed. They are highly dependent on metamaterial parameters, i.e. ɛr-negative, µr-negative, or both. Numerical results provided that only the proper complex modes (i.e., leaky modes) exist in DNG slab, and only the improper complex modes exist in single-negative grounded slab.

Keywords: Double-negative grounded slab, real and complex modes, single-negative grounded slab, transverse resonance method.

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5723 On the Flow of a Third Grade Viscoelastic Fluid in an Orthogonal Rheometer

Authors: Carmen D. Pricinâ, E. Corina Cipu, Victor Ţigoiu

Abstract:

The flow of a third grade fluid in an orthogonal rheometer is studied. We employ the admissible velocity field proposed in [5]. We solve the problem and obtain the velocity field as well as the components for the Cauchy tensor. We compare the results with those from [9]. Some diagrams concerning the velocity and Cauchy stress components profiles are presented for different values of material constants and compared with the corresponding values for a linear viscous fluid.

Keywords: Non newtonian fluid flow, orthogonal rheometer, third grade fluid.

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5722 Line Balancing in the Hard Disk Drive Process Using Simulation Techniques

Authors: Teerapun Saeheaw, Nivit Charoenchai, Wichai Chattinnawat

Abstract:

Simulation model is an easy way to build up models to represent real life scenarios, to identify bottlenecks and to enhance system performance. Using a valid simulation model may give several advantages in creating better manufacturing design in order to improve the system performances. This paper presents result of implementing a simulation model to design hard disk drive manufacturing process by applying line balancing to improve both productivity and quality of hard disk drive process. The line balance efficiency showed 86% decrease in work in process, output was increased by an average of 80%, average time in the system was decreased 86% and waiting time was decreased 90%.

Keywords: line balancing, arena, hard disk drive process, simulation, work in process (WIP)

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5721 Application of STATCOM-SMES Compensator for Power System Dynamic Performance Improvement

Authors: Reza Sedaghati, Mojtaba Hakimzadeh, Mohammad Hasan Raouf, Mostafa Mirzadeh

Abstract:

Nowadays the growth of distributed generation within the bulk power system is feasible by using the optimal control of the transmission lines power flow. Static Synchronous Compensators (STATCOM) is effective for improving voltage stability but it can only exchange reactive power with the power grid. The integration of Superconducting Magnetic Energy Storage (SMES) with a STATCOM can extend the traditional STATCOM capabilities to four-quadrant bulk power system power flow control and providing exchange both the active and reactive power related to the STATCOM with the ac network. This paper shows how the SMES system can be connected to the ac system via the DC bus of a STATCOM and also analyzes how the integration of STATCOM and SMES allows the bus voltage regulation and power oscillation damping (POD) to be achieved simultaneously. The dynamic performance of the integrated STATCOM-SMES is evaluated through simulation by using PSCAD/EMTDC software and the compensation effectiveness of this integrated compensator is shown.

Keywords: STATCOM-SMES compensator, Power Oscillation Damping (POD), stabilizing, signal, voltage.

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5720 Strategic Management via System Dynamics Simulation Models

Authors: G. Papageorgiou, A. Hadjis

Abstract:

This paper examines the problem of strategic management in highly turbulent dynamic business environmental conditions. As shown the high complexity of the problem can be managed with the use of System Dynamics Models and Computer Simulation in obtaining insights, and thorough understanding of the interdependencies between the organizational structure and the business environmental elements, so that effective product –market strategies can be designed. Simulation reveals the underlying forces that hold together the structure of an organizational system in relation to its environment. Such knowledge will contribute to the avoidance of fundamental planning errors and enable appropriate proactive well focused action.

Keywords: Strategic Management, System Dynamics, Modelingand Simulation, Strategic Planning, Organizational Dynamics

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5719 Handling Complexity of a Complex System Design: Paradigm, Formalism and Transformations

Authors: Hycham Aboutaleb, Bruno Monsuez

Abstract:

Current systems complexity has reached a degree that requires addressing conception and design issues while taking into account environmental, operational, social, legal and financial aspects. Therefore, one of the main challenges is the way complex systems are specified and designed. The exponential growing effort, cost and time investment of complex systems in modeling phase emphasize the need for a paradigm, a framework and an environment to handle the system model complexity. For that, it is necessary to understand the expectations of the human user of the model and his limits. This paper presents a generic framework for designing complex systems, highlights the requirements a system model needs to fulfill to meet human user expectations, and suggests a graphbased formalism for modeling complex systems. Finally, a set of transformations are defined to handle the model complexity.

Keywords: Higraph-based, formalism, system engineering paradigm, modeling requirements, graph-based transformations.

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5718 Three Dimensional Numerical Simulation of a Full Scale CANDU Reactor Moderator to Study Temperature Fluctuations

Authors: A. Sarchami, N. Ashgriz, M. Kwee

Abstract:

Threedimensional numerical simulations are conducted on a full scale CANDU Moderator and Transient variations of the temperature and velocity distributions inside the tank are determined. The results show that the flow and temperature distributions inside the moderator tank are three dimensional and no symmetry plane can be identified.Competition between the upward moving buoyancy driven flows and the downward moving momentum driven flows, results in the formation of circulation zones. The moderator tank operates in the buoyancy driven mode and any small disturbances in the flow or temperature makes the system unstable and asymmetric. Different types of temperature fluctuations are noted inside the tank: (i) large amplitude are at the boundaries between the hot and cold (ii) low amplitude are in the core of the tank (iii) high frequency fluctuations are in the regions with high velocities and (iv) low frequency fluctuations are in the regions with lower velocities.

Keywords: Bruce, Fluctuations, Numerical, Temperature, Thermal hydraulics

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5717 Using Simulation Modeling Approach to Predict USMLE Steps 1 and 2 Performances

Authors: Chau-Kuang Chen, John Hughes, Jr., A. Dexter Samuels

Abstract:

The prediction models for the United States Medical Licensure Examination (USMLE) Steps 1 and 2 performances were constructed by the Monte Carlo simulation modeling approach via linear regression. The purpose of this study was to build robust simulation models to accurately identify the most important predictors and yield the valid range estimations of the Steps 1 and 2 scores. The application of simulation modeling approach was deemed an effective way in predicting student performances on licensure examinations. Also, sensitivity analysis (a/k/a what-if analysis) in the simulation models was used to predict the magnitudes of Steps 1 and 2 affected by changes in the National Board of Medical Examiners (NBME) Basic Science Subject Board scores. In addition, the study results indicated that the Medical College Admission Test (MCAT) Verbal Reasoning score and Step 1 score were significant predictors of the Step 2 performance. Hence, institutions could screen qualified student applicants for interviews and document the effectiveness of basic science education program based on the simulation results.

Keywords: Prediction Model, Sensitivity Analysis, Simulation Method, USMLE.

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