Search results for: total error rate.
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 5532

Search results for: total error rate.

4872 Neural Network Ensemble-based Solar Power Generation Short-Term Forecasting

Authors: A. Chaouachi, R.M. Kamel, R. Ichikawa, H. Hayashi, K. Nagasaka

Abstract:

This paper presents the applicability of artificial neural networks for 24 hour ahead solar power generation forecasting of a 20 kW photovoltaic system, the developed forecasting is suitable for a reliable Microgrid energy management. In total four neural networks were proposed, namely: multi-layred perceptron, radial basis function, recurrent and a neural network ensemble consisting in ensemble of bagged networks. Forecasting reliability of the proposed neural networks was carried out in terms forecasting error performance basing on statistical and graphical methods. The experimental results showed that all the proposed networks achieved an acceptable forecasting accuracy. In term of comparison the neural network ensemble gives the highest precision forecasting comparing to the conventional networks. In fact, each network of the ensemble over-fits to some extent and leads to a diversity which enhances the noise tolerance and the forecasting generalization performance comparing to the conventional networks.

Keywords: Neural network ensemble, Solar power generation, 24 hour forecasting, Comparative study

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4871 Direct Measurement of Electromagnetic Thrust of Electrodeless Helicon Plasma Thruster Using Magnetic Nozzle

Authors: Takahiro Nakamura, Kenji Takahashi, Hiroyuki Nishida, Shunjiro Shinohara, Takeshi Matsuoka, Ikkoh Funaki, Takao Tanikawa, Tohru Hada

Abstract:

In order to realize long-lived electric propulsion systems, we have been investigating an electrodeless plasma thruster. In our concept, a helicon plasma is accelerated by the magnetic nozzle for the thrusts production. In addition, the electromagnetic thrust can be enhanced by the additional radio-frequency rotating electric field (REF) power in the magnetic nozzle. In this study, a direct measurement of the electromagnetic thrust and a probe measurement have been conducted using a laboratory model of the thruster under the condition without the REF power input. Fromthrust measurement, it is shown that the thruster produces a sub-milli-newton order electromagnetic thrust force without the additional REF power. The thrust force and the density jump are observed due to the discharge mode transition from the inductive coupled plasma to the helicon wave excited plasma. The thermal thrust is theoretically estimated, and the total thrust force, which is a sum of the electromagnetic and the thermal thrust force and specific impulse are calculated to be up to 650 μN (plasma production power of 400 W, Ar gas mass flow rate of 1.0 mg/s) and 210 s (plasma production power of 400 W, Ar gas mass flow rate of 0.2 mg/s), respectively.

Keywords: Electric propulsion, Helicon plasma, Lissajous acceleration, Thrust stand.

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4870 Long-Range Dependence of Financial Time Series Data

Authors: Chatchai Pesee

Abstract:

This paper examines long-range dependence or longmemory of financial time series on the exchange rate data by the fractional Brownian motion (fBm). The principle of spectral density function in Section 2 is used to find the range of Hurst parameter (H) of the fBm. If 0< H <1/2, then it has a short-range dependence (SRD). It simulates long-memory or long-range dependence (LRD) if 1/2< H <1. The curve of exchange rate data is fBm because of the specific appearance of the Hurst parameter (H). Furthermore, some of the definitions of the fBm, long-range dependence and selfsimilarity are reviewed in Section II as well. Our results indicate that there exists a long-memory or a long-range dependence (LRD) for the exchange rate data in section III. Long-range dependence of the exchange rate data and estimation of the Hurst parameter (H) are discussed in Section IV, while a conclusion is discussed in Section V.

Keywords: Fractional Brownian motion, long-rangedependence, memory, short-range dependence.

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4869 Identifying the Kinematic Parameters of Hexapod Machine Tool

Authors: M. M. Agheli, M. J. Nategh

Abstract:

Hexapod Machine Tool (HMT) is a parallel robot mostly based on Stewart platform. Identification of kinematic parameters of HMT is an important step of calibration procedure. In this paper an algorithm is presented for identifying the kinematic parameters of HMT using inverse kinematics error model. Based on this algorithm, the calibration procedure is simulated. Measurement configurations with maximum observability are decided as the first step of this algorithm for a robust calibration. The errors occurring in various configurations are illustrated graphically. It has been shown that the boundaries of the workspace should be searched for the maximum observability of errors. The importance of using configurations with sufficient observability in calibrating hexapod machine tools is verified by trial calibration with two different groups of randomly selected configurations. One group is selected to have sufficient observability and the other is in disregard of the observability criterion. Simulation results confirm the validity of the proposed identification algorithm.

Keywords: Calibration, Hexapod Machine Tool (HMT), InverseKinematics Error Model, Observability, Parallel Robot, ParameterIdentification.

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4868 Ultra High Speed Approach for Document Skew Detection and Correction Based On Centre of Gravity

Authors: Seyyed Yasser Hashemi

Abstract:

Skew detection and correction (SDC) has a direct effect in efficiency and exactitude of documents’ segmentation and analysis and thus is considered as a very important step in documents’ analysis field. Skew is a major problem in documents’ analysis for every language. For Arabic/Persian document scripts this problem is more severe because of special features of these languages. In this paper an efficient and fast algorithm for Document Skew Detection (DSD) based on the concept of segmentation and Center of Gravity (COG) is proposed. This algorithm is examined for 150 Arabic/Persian and English documents and SDC process are done successfully for 93 percent of documents with error rate of less than 1°. This algorithm shows better results for English documents compared to Arabic/Persian documents. The proposed method is also represents favorable results for handwritten, printed and also complicated documents such as newspapers and journals even with very low quality and resolution.

Keywords: Arabic/Persian document, Baseline, Centre of gravity, Document segmentation, Skew detection and correction.

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4867 Real Time Compensation of Machining Errors for Machine Tools NC based on Systematic Dispersion

Authors: M. Rahou, A. Cheikh, F. Sebaa

Abstract:

Manufacturing tolerancing is intended to determine the intermediate geometrical and dimensional states of the part during its manufacturing process. These manufacturing dimensions also serve to satisfy not only the functional requirements given in the definition drawing, but also the manufacturing constraints, for example geometrical defects of the machine, vibration and the wear of the cutting tool. In this paper, an experimental study on the influence of the wear of the cutting tool (systematic dispersions) is explored. This study was carried out on three stages .The first stage allows machining without elimination of dispersions (random, systematic) so the tolerances of manufacture according to total dispersions. In the second stage, the results of the first stage are filtered in such way to obtain the tolerances according to random dispersions. Finally, from the two previous stages, the systematic dispersions are generated. The objective of this study is to model by the least squares method the error of manufacture based on systematic dispersion. Finally, an approach of optimization of the manufacturing tolerances was developed for machining on a CNC machine tool

Keywords: Dispersions, Compensation, modeling, manufacturing Tolerance, machine tool.

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4866 Impact Deformation and Fracture Behaviour of Cobalt-Based Haynes 188 Superalloy

Authors: Woei-Shyan Lee, Hao-Chien Kao

Abstract:

The impact deformation and fracture behaviour of cobalt-based Haynes 188 superalloy are investigated by means of a split Hopkinson pressure bar. Impact tests are performed at strain rates ranging from 1×103 s-1 to 5×103 s-1 and temperatures between 25°C and 800°C. The experimental results indicate that the flow response and fracture characteristics of cobalt-based Haynes 188 superalloy are significantly dependent on the strain rate and temperature. The flow stress, work hardening rate and strain rate sensitivity all increase with increasing strain rate or decreasing temperature. It is shown that the impact response of the Haynes 188 specimens is adequately described by the Zerilli-Armstrong fcc model. The fracture analysis results indicate that the Haynes 188 specimens fail predominantly as the result of intensive localised shearing. Furthermore, it is shown that the flow localisation effect leads to the formation of adiabatic shear bands. The fracture surfaces of the deformed Haynes 188 specimens are characterised by dimple- and / or cleavage-like structure with knobby features. The knobby features are thought to be the result of a rise in the local temperature to a value greater than the melting point.

Keywords: Haynes 188 alloy, impact, strain rate and temperature effect, adiabatic shearing.

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4865 Modal Analysis of a Cantilever Beam Using an Inexpensive Smartphone Camera: Motion Magnification Technique

Authors: Hasan Hassoun, Jaafar Hallal, Denis Duhamel, Mohammad Hammoud, Ali Hage Diab

Abstract:

This paper aims to prove the accuracy of an inexpensive smartphone camera as a non-contact vibration sensor to recover the vibration modes of a vibrating structure such as a cantilever beam. A video of a vibrating beam is filmed using a smartphone camera and then processed by the motion magnification technique. Based on this method, the first two natural frequencies and their associated mode shapes are estimated experimentally and compared to the analytical ones. Results show a relative error of less than 4% between the experimental and analytical approaches for the first two natural frequencies of the beam. Also, for the first two-mode shapes, a Modal Assurance Criterion (MAC) value of above 0.9 between the two approaches is obtained. This slight error between the different techniques ensures the viability of a cheap smartphone camera as a non-contact vibration sensor, particularly for structures vibrating at relatively low natural frequencies.

Keywords: Modal Analysis, motion magnification, smartphone camera, structural vibration, vibration modes.

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4864 Investigation of Main Operating Parameters Affecting Gas Turbine Efficiency and Gas Releases

Authors: Farhat Hajer, Khir Tahar, Ammar Ben Brahim

Abstract:

This work presents a study on the influence of the main operating variables on the gas turbine cycle. A numerical simulation of a gas turbine cycle is performed for a real net power of 100 MW. A calculation code is developed using EES software. The operating variables are taken in conformity with the local environmental conditions adopted by the Tunisian Society of Electricity and Gas. Results show that the increase of ambient temperature leads to an increase of Tpz and NOx emissions rate and a decrease of cycle efficiency and UHC emissions. The CO emissions decrease with the raise of residence time, while NOx emissions rate increases and UHC emissions rate decreases. Furthermore, both of cycle efficiency and NOx emissions increase with the increase of the pressure ratio.

Keywords: CO, efficiency, gas turbine, NOx, UHC.

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4863 Computer Proven Correctness of the Rabin Public-Key Scheme

Authors: Johannes Buchmann, Markus Kaiser

Abstract:

We decribe a formal specification and verification of the Rabin public-key scheme in the formal proof system Is-abelle/HOL. The idea is to use the two views of cryptographic verification: the computational approach relying on the vocabulary of probability theory and complexity theory and the formal approach based on ideas and techniques from logic and programming languages. The analysis presented uses a given database to prove formal properties of our implemented functions with computer support. Thema in task in designing a practical formalization of correctness as well as security properties is to cope with the complexity of cryptographic proving. We reduce this complexity by exploring a light-weight formalization that enables both appropriate formal definitions as well as eficient formal proofs. This yields the first computer-proved implementation of the Rabin public-key scheme in Isabelle/HOL. Consequently, we get reliable proofs with a minimal error rate augmenting the used database. This provides a formal basis for more computer proof constructions in this area.

Keywords: public-key encryption, Rabin public-key scheme, formalproof system, higher-order logic, formal verification.

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4862 The effects of Garlic Oil (Allium sativa), Turmeric Powder (Curcuma longa Linn) and Monensin on Total Apparent Digestibility of Nutrients in Baloochi Lambs

Authors: Ahmad Khalesizadeh, Alireza Vakili, Mohsen Danesh Mesgaran, Reza Valizadeh

Abstract:

The objective of this study was to determine the effects of garlic oil (Allium sativa), turmeric powder (Curcuma longa Linn) and Monensin on Total apparent digestibility of nutrients in Baloochi lambs. The experiment was designed as a 4 x 4 Latin square using 4 ruminally baloochi lambs with 4 treatments in four 28-d periods. Treatments were control (no additive), garlic oil (0. 4 g/d), monensin (0. 2 g/d) and turmeric powder (20 g/d). Total apparent digestibility's (% of intake) of organic matter (OM), dry matter (DM), crud protein (CP), ether extract(EE), non fiber carbohydrate (NFC), acid detergent fiber (ADF) and neutral detergent fiber (NDF) in the total tract were not influenced by addition of either additives.

Keywords: apparent digestibility, essential oil, garlic oil, monensin, turmeric

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4861 When Explanations “Cause“ Error: A Look at Representations and Compressions

Authors: Michael Lissack

Abstract:

We depend upon explanation in order to “make sense" out of our world. And, making sense is all the more important when dealing with change. But, what happens if our explanations are wrong? This question is examined with respect to two types of explanatory model. Models based on labels and categories we shall refer to as “representations." More complex models involving stories, multiple algorithms, rules of thumb, questions, ambiguity we shall refer to as “compressions." Both compressions and representations are reductions. But representations are far more reductive than compressions. Representations can be treated as a set of defined meanings – coherence with regard to a representation is the degree of fidelity between the item in question and the definition of the representation, of the label. By contrast, compressions contain enough degrees of freedom and ambiguity to allow us to make internal predictions so that we may determine our potential actions in the possibility space. Compressions are explanatory via mechanism. Representations are explanatory via category. Managers are often confusing their evocation of a representation (category inclusion) as the creation of a context of compression (description of mechanism). When this type of explanatory error occurs, more errors follow. In the drive for efficiency such substitutions are all too often proclaimed – at the manager-s peril..

Keywords: Coherence, Emergence, Reduction, Model

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4860 The Effectiveness of Banks’ Web Sites: A Study of Turkish Banking Sector

Authors: Raif Parlakkaya, Huseyin Cetin, Duygu Irdiren

Abstract:

By the development of World Wide Web, the usage rate of Internet has rapidly grown globally; and provided a basis for the emergence of electronic business. As well as other sectors, the banking sector has adopted the use of internet with the developments in information and communication technologies. Due to the public disclosure and transparency principle of Corporate Governance, the importance of information disclosure of banks on their web sites has increased significantly. For the purpose of this study, a Bank Disclosure Attribute Index (BDAI) in Turkey has been constructed through classifying the information disclosure on banks’ web sites into general, financial, investors and corporate governance attributes. All 47 banks in Turkish Banking System have been evaluated according to the index with the aim of providing a comparison between banks. By Chi Square Test, Pearson Correlation, T-Test, and ANOVA statistical tools, it has been concluded that the majority of banks in Turkey have shared information on their web sites adequately with respect to their total index score. Although there is a positive correlation between various types of information on banks’ web sites, there is no uniformity among them. Also, no significant difference between various types of information disclosure and bank types has been observed. Compared with the total index score averages of the five largest banks in Turkey, there are some banks that need to improve the content of their web sites.

Keywords: Banking sector, public disclosure, Turkey, web site evaluation.

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4859 The Catalytic Activity of Cu2O Microparticles

Authors: Kanda Wongwailikhit

Abstract:

Copper (I) oxide microparticles with the morphology of cubic and hollow sphere were synthesized with the assistance of surfactant as the shape controller. Both particles were then subjected to study the catalytic activity and observed the results of shape effects of catalysts on rate of catalytic reaction. The decolorizing reaction of crystal violet and sodium hydroxide was chosen and measured the decreasing of reactant with respect to times using spectrophotometer. The result revealed that morphology of crystal had no effect on the catalytic activity for crystal violet reaction but contributed to total surface area predominantly.

Keywords: Copper (I) oxide, Catalytic activity, Crystal violet.

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4858 High-rate Wastewater Treatment by a Shaft-type Activated Sludge Reactor

Authors: Subrata Hait, Debabrata Mazumder

Abstract:

A shaft-type activated sludge reactor has been developed in order to study the feasibility of high-rate wastewater treatment. The reactor having volume of about 14.5 L was operated with the acclimated mixed activated sludge under batch and continuous mode using a synthetic wastewater as feed. The batch study was performed with varying chemical oxygen demand (COD) concentrations of 1000–3500 mg·L-1 for a batch period up to 9 h. The kinetic coefficients: Ks, k, Y and kd were obtained as 2040.2 mg·L-1 and 0.105 h-1, 0.878 and 0.0025 h-1 respectively from Monod-s approach. The continuous study showed a stable and steady state operation for a hydraulic retention time (HRT) of 8 h and influent COD of about 1000 mg·L-1. A maximum COD removal efficiency of about 80% was attained at a COD loading rate and food-tomicroorganism (F/M) ratio (COD basis) of 3.42 kg·m-3d-1 and 1.0 kg·kg-1d-1 respectively under a HRT of 8 h. The reactor was also found to handle COD loading rate and F/M ratio of 10.8 kg·m-3d-1 and 2.20 kg·kg-1d-1 respectively showing a COD removal efficiency of about 46%.

Keywords: Activated sludge process, shaft-type reactor, highrate treatment, carbonaceous wastewater.

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4857 Life Table and Reproductive Table Parameters of Scolothrips Longicornis (Thysanoptera: Thripidae) as a Predator of Two-Spotted Spider Mite, Tetranychus Turkestani (Acari: Tetranychidae)

Authors: Mehdi Gheibi, Shahram Hesami

Abstract:

Scolothrips longicornis Priesner is one of the important predators of tetranychid mites with a wide distribution throughout Iran. Life table and population growth parameters of S. longicornis feeding on two-spotted spider mite, Tetranychus turkestani Ugarov & Nikolski were investigated under laboratory condition (26±1ºC, 65±5% R.H. and 16L: 8D). To carry of these experiments, S. longicornis collections reared on cowpea infested with T. turkestani were prepared. The eggs with less than 24 hours old were selected and reared. The emerged larvae feeding directly on cowpea leaf discs which were infested with T. turkestani. Thirty females of S. longicornis with 24 hours age were selected and released on infested leaf discs. They replaced daily to a new leaf disc and the laying eggs have counted. The experiment continued till the last thrips had died. The result showed that the mean age mortality of the adult female thrips were between 21-25 days which is nearly equal life expectancy (ex) at the time of adult eclosion. Parameters related to reproductive table including gross reproductive rate, net reproductive rate, intrinsic rate of natural increase and finite rate of increase were 48.91, 37.63, 0.26 and 2.3, respectively. Mean age per female/day, mean fertile egg per female/day, gross hatch rate, mean net age fertility, mean net age fecundity, net fertility rate and net fecundity rate were 2.23, 1.76, 0.87, 13.87, 14.26, 69.1 and 78.5, respectively. Sex ratio of offspring also recorded daily. The highest sex ratio for females was 0.88 in first day of oviposition. The sex ratio decreased gradually and reached under 0.46 after the day 26 and the oviposition rate declined. Then it seems that maintenance of rearing culture of predatory thrips for mass rearing later than 26 days after egg-laying commence is not profitable.

Keywords: Tetranychus, Scolothrips, Demography, Life table, Reproductive table

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4856 Synchronization of 0.1 Hz Oscillations in Heart Rate and Blood Pressure: Application to Treatment of Myocardial Infarction Patients

Authors: M. D. Prokhorov, A. R. Kiselev, A. S. Karavaev, O. M. Posnenkova, V. I. Gridnev, V. I. Ponomarenko

Abstract:

Synchronization between 0.1 Hz oscillations in heart rate and blood pressure is studied and its change during vertical tilt is evaluated in 37 myocardial infarction patients. Two groups of patients are identified with decreased and increased, respectively, synchronization of the studied oscillations as a response to a tilt test. It is shown that assessment of synchronization of 0.1 Hz oscillations as a response to vertical tilt can be used as a guideline for selecting optimal dose of beta-blocker treatment in post-myocardial infarction patients.

Keywords: Cardiovascular system, heart rate variability, synchronization.

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4855 Development of Mathematical Model for Overall Oxygen Transfer Coefficient of an Aerator and Comparison with CFD Modeling

Authors: Shashank.B. Thakre, L.B. Bhuyar, Samir.J. Deshmukh

Abstract:

The value of overall oxygen transfer Coefficient (KLa), which is the best measure of oxygen transfer in water through aeration, is obtained by a simple approach, which sufficiently explains the utility of the method to eliminate the discrepancies due to inaccurate assumption of saturation dissolved oxygen concentration. The rate of oxygen transfer depends on number of factors like intensity of turbulence, which in turns depends on the speed of rotation, size, and number of blades, diameter and immersion depth of the rotor, and size and shape of aeration tank, as well as on physical, chemical, and biological characteristic of water. An attempt is made in this paper to correlate the overall oxygen transfer Coefficient (KLa), as an independent parameter with other influencing parameters mentioned above. It has been estimated that the simulation equation developed predicts the values of KLa and power with an average standard error of estimation of 0.0164 and 7.66 respectively and with R2 values of 0.979 and 0.989 respectively, when compared with experimentally determined values. The comparison of this model is done with the model generated using Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and both the models were found to be in good agreement with each other.

Keywords: CFD Model, Overall oxygen transfer coefficient, Power, Mathematical Model, Validation.

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4854 Economic Loss due to Ganoderma Disease in Oil Palm

Authors: K. Assis, K. P. Chong, A. S. Idris, C. M. Ho

Abstract:

Oil palm or Elaeis guineensis is considered as the golden crop in Malaysia. But oil palm industry in this country is now facing with the most devastating disease called as Ganoderma Basal Stem Rot disease. The objective of this paper is to analyze the economic loss due to this disease. There were three commercial oil palm sites selected for collecting the required data for economic analysis. Yield parameter used to measure the loss was the total weight of fresh fruit bunch in six months. The predictors include disease severity, change in disease severity, number of infected neighbor palms, age of palm, planting generation, topography, and first order interaction variables. The estimation model of yield loss was identified by using backward elimination based regression method. Diagnostic checking was conducted on the residual of the best yield loss model. The value of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was used to measure the forecast performance of the model. The best yield loss model was then used to estimate the economic loss by using the current monthly price of fresh fruit bunch at mill gate.

Keywords: Ganoderma, oil palm, regression model, yield loss, economic loss.

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4853 Efficient CNC Milling by Adjusting Material Removal Rate

Authors: Majid Tolouei-Rad

Abstract:

This paper describes a combined mathematicalgraphical approach for optimum tool path planning in order to improve machining efficiency. A methodology has been used that stabilizes machining operations by adjusting material removal rate in pocket milling operations while keeping cutting forces within limits. This increases the life of cutting tool and reduces the risk of tool breakage, machining vibration, and chatter. Case studies reveal the fact that application of this approach could result in a slight increase of machining time, however, a considerable reduction of tooling cost, machining vibration, noise and chatter can be achieved in addition to producing a better surface finish.

Keywords: CNC machines, milling, optimization, removal rate.

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4852 Robot Movement Using the Trust Region Policy Optimization

Authors: Romisaa Ali

Abstract:

The Policy Gradient approach is a subset of the Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) combines Deep Neural Networks (DNN) with Reinforcement Learning (RL). This approach finds the optimal policy of robot movement, based on the experience it gains from interaction with its environment. Unlike previous policy gradient algorithms, which were unable to handle the two types of error variance and bias introduced by the DNN model due to over- or underestimation, this algorithm is capable of handling both types of error variance and bias. This article will discuss the state-of-the-art SOTA policy gradient technique, trust region policy optimization (TRPO), by applying this method in various environments compared to another policy gradient method, the Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO), to explain their robust optimization, using this SOTA to gather experience data during various training phases after observing the impact of hyper-parameters on neural network performance.

Keywords: Deep neural networks, deep reinforcement learning, Proximal Policy Optimization, state-of-the-art, trust region policy optimization.

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4851 A Condition-Based Maintenance Policy for Multi-Unit Systems Subject to Deterioration

Authors: Nooshin Salari, Viliam Makis

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose a condition-based maintenance policy for multi-unit systems considering the existence of economic dependency among units. We consider a system composed of N identical units, where each unit deteriorates independently. Deterioration process of each unit is modeled as a three-state continuous time homogeneous Markov chain with two working states and a failure state. The average production rate of units varies in different working states and demand rate of the system is constant. Units are inspected at equidistant time epochs, and decision regarding performing maintenance is determined by the number of units in the failure state. If the total number of units in the failure state exceeds a critical level, maintenance is initiated, where units in failed state are replaced correctively and deteriorated state units are maintained preventively. Our objective is to determine the optimal number of failed units to initiate maintenance minimizing the long run expected average cost per unit time. The problem is formulated and solved in the semi-Markov decision process (SMDP) framework. A numerical example is developed to demonstrate the proposed policy and the comparison with the corrective maintenance policy is presented.

Keywords: Reliability, production, maintenance optimization, Semi-Markov Decision Process.

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4850 Evaluation of the ANN Based Nonlinear System Models in the MSE and CRLB Senses

Authors: M.V Rajesh, Archana R, A Unnikrishnan, R Gopikakumari, Jeevamma Jacob

Abstract:

The System Identification problem looks for a suitably parameterized model, representing a given process. The parameters of the model are adjusted to optimize a performance function based on error between the given process output and identified process output. The linear system identification field is well established with many classical approaches whereas most of those methods cannot be applied for nonlinear systems. The problem becomes tougher if the system is completely unknown with only the output time series is available. It has been reported that the capability of Artificial Neural Network to approximate all linear and nonlinear input-output maps makes it predominantly suitable for the identification of nonlinear systems, where only the output time series is available. [1][2][4][5]. The work reported here is an attempt to implement few of the well known algorithms in the context of modeling of nonlinear systems, and to make a performance comparison to establish the relative merits and demerits.

Keywords: Multilayer neural networks, Radial Basis Functions, Clustering algorithm, Back Propagation training, Extended Kalmanfiltering, Mean Square Error, Nonlinear Modeling, Cramer RaoLower Bound.

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4849 Species Profiling of White Grub Beetles and Evaluation of Pre and Post Sown Application of Insecticides against White Grub Infesting Soybean

Authors: Ajay Kumar Pandey, Mayank Kumar

Abstract:

White grub (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae) is a major destructive pest in western Himalayan region of Uttarakhand. Beetles feed on apple, apricot, plum, walnut etc. during night while, second and third instar grubs feed on live roots of cultivated as well as non-cultivated crops. Collection and identification of scarab beetles through light trap was carried out at Crop Research Centre, Govind Ballab Pant University Pantnagar, Udham Singh Nagar (Uttarakhand) during 2018. Field trials were also conducted in 2018 to evaluate pre and post sown application of different insecticides against the white grub infesting soybean. The insecticides like Carbofuran 3 Granule (G) (750 g a.i./ha), Clothianidin 50 Water Dispersal Granule (WG) (120 g a.i./ha), Fipronil 0.3 G (50 g a.i./ha), Thiamethoxam 25 WG (80 g a.i./ha), Imidacloprid 70 WG (300 g a.i./ha), Chlorantraniliprole 0.4% G(100 g a.i./ha) and mixture of Fipronil 40% and Imidacloprid 40% WG (300 g a.i./ha) were applied at the time of sowing in pre sown experiment while same dosage of insecticides were applied in standing soybean crop during (first fortnight of July). Commutative plant mortality data were recorded after 20, 40, 60 days intervals and compared with untreated control. Total 23 species of white grub beetles recorded on the light trap and Holotrichia serrata Fabricious (Coleoptera: Melolonthinae) was found to be predominant species by recording 20.6% relative abundance out of the total light trap catch (i.e. 1316 beetles) followed by Phyllognathus sp. (14.6% relative abundance). H. rosettae and Heteronychus lioderus occupied third and fourth rank with 11.85% and 9.65% relative abundance, respectively. The emergence of beetles of predominant species started from 15th March, 2018. In April, average light trap catch was 382 white grub beetles, however, peak emergence of most of the white grub species was observed from June to July, 2018 i.e. 336 beetles in June followed by 303 beetles in the July. On the basis of the emergence pattern of white grub beetles, it may be concluded that the Peak Emergence Period (PEP) for the beetles of H. serrata was second fortnight of April for the total period of 15 days. In May, June and July relatively low population of H. serrata was observed. A decreasing trend in light trap catch was observed and went on till September during the study. No single beetle of H. serrata was observed on light trap from September onwards. The cumulative plant mortality data in both the experiments revealed that all the insecticidal treatments were significantly superior in protection-wise (6.49-16.82% cumulative plant mortality) over untreated control where highest plant mortality was 17.28 to 39.65% during study. The mixture of Fipronil 40% and Imidacloprid 40% WG applied at the rate of 300 g a.i. per ha proved to be most effective having lowest plant mortality i.e. 9.29 and 10.94% in pre and post sown crop, followed by Clothianidin 50 WG (120 g a.i. per ha) where the plant mortality was 10.57 and 11.93% in pre and post sown treatments, respectively. Both treatments were found significantly at par among each other. Production-wise, all the insecticidal treatments were found statistically superior (15.00-24.66 q per ha grain yields) over untreated control where the grain yield was 8.25 & 9.13 q per ha. Treatment Fipronil 40% + Imidacloprid 40% WG applied at the rate of 300 g a.i. per ha proved to be most effective and significantly superior over Imidacloprid 70WG applied at the rate of 300 g a.i. per ha.

Keywords: Bio efficacy, insecticide, Holotrichia, soybean, white grub.

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4848 Low Cost Microcontroller Based ECG Machine

Authors: Muhibul H. Bhuyan, Md. T. Hasan, Hasan Iskander

Abstract:

Electrocardiographic (ECG) machine is an important equipment to diagnose heart problems. Besides, the ECG signals are used to detect many other features of human body and behavior. But it is not so cheap and simple in operation to be used in the countries like Bangladesh, where most of the people are very low income earners. Therefore, in this paper, we have tried to implement a simple and portable ECG machine. Since Arduino Uno microcontroller is very cheap, we have used it in our system to minimize the cost. Our designed system is powered by a 2-voltage level DC power supply. It provides wireless connectivity to have ECG data either in smartphone having android operating system or a PC/laptop having Windows operating system. To get the data, a graphic user interface has been designed. Android application has also been made using IDE for Android 2.3 and API 10. Since it requires no USB host API, almost 98% Android smartphones, available in the country, will be able to use it. We have calculated the heart rate from the measured ECG by our designed machine and by an ECG machine of a reputed diagnostic center in Dhaka city for the same people at the same time on same day. Then we calculated the percentage of errors between the readings of two machines and computed its average. From this computation, we have found out that the average percentage of error is within an acceptable limit.

Keywords: Low cost ECG machine, heart diseases, remote monitoring, Arduino microcontroller.

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4847 Development of a Multi-Factorial Instrument for Accident Analysis Based on Systemic Methods

Authors: C. V. Pietreanu, S. E. Zaharia, C. Dinu

Abstract:

The present research is built on three major pillars, commencing by making some considerations on accident investigation methods and pointing out both defining aspects and differences between linear and non-linear analysis. The traditional linear focus on accident analysis describes accidents as a sequence of events, while the latest systemic models outline interdependencies between different factors and define the processes evolution related to a specific (normal) situation. Linear and non-linear accident analysis methods have specific limitations, so the second point of interest is mirrored by the aim to discover the drawbacks of systemic models which becomes a starting point for developing new directions to identify risks or data closer to the cause of incidents/accidents. Since communication represents a critical issue in the interaction of human factor and has been proved to be the answer of the problems made by possible breakdowns in different communication procedures, from this focus point, on the third pylon a new error-modeling instrument suitable for risk assessment/accident analysis will be elaborated.

Keywords: Accident analysis, multi-factorial error modeling, risk, systemic methods.

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4846 Retrospective Synthetic Focusing with Correlation Weighting for Very High Frame Rate Ultrasound

Authors: Chang-Lin Hu, Yao-You Cheng, Meng-Lin Li

Abstract:

The need of high frame-rate imaging has been triggered by the new applications of ultrasound imaging to transient elastography and real-time 3D ultrasound. Using plane wave excitation (PWE) is one of the methods to achieve very high frame-rate imaging since an image can be formed with a single insonification. However, due to the lack of transmit focusing, the image quality with PWE is lower compared with those using conventional focused transmission. To solve this problem, we propose a filter-retrieved transmit focusing (FRF) technique combined with cross-correlation weighting (FRF+CC weighting) for high frame-rate imaging with PWE. A restrospective focusing filter is designed to simultaneously minimize the predefined sidelobe energy associated with single PWE and the filter energy related to the signal-to-noise-ratio (SNR). This filter attempts to maintain the mainlobe signals and to reduce the sidelobe ones, which gives similar mainlobe signals and different sidelobes between the original PWE and the FRF baseband data. Normalized cross-correlation coefficient at zero lag is calculated to quantify the degree of similarity at each imaging point and used as a weighting matrix to the FRF baseband data to further suppress sidelobes, thus improving the filter-retrieved focusing quality.

Keywords: retrospective synthetic focusing, high frame rate, correlation weighting.

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4845 Robust Fractional-Order PI Controller with Ziegler-Nichols Rules

Authors: Mazidah Tajjudin, Mohd Hezri Fazalul Rahiman, Norhashim Mohd Arshad, Ramli Adnan

Abstract:

In process control applications, above 90% of the controllers are of PID type. This paper proposed a robust PI controller with fractional-order integrator. The PI parameters were obtained using classical Ziegler-Nichols rules but enhanced with the application of error filter cascaded to the fractional-order PI. The controller was applied on steam temperature process that was described by FOPDT transfer function. The process can be classified as lag dominating process with very small relative dead-time. The proposed control scheme was compared with other PI controller tuned using Ziegler-Nichols and AMIGO rules. Other PI controller with fractional-order integrator known as F-MIGO was also considered. All the controllers were subjected to set point change and load disturbance tests. The performance was measured using Integral of Squared Error (ISE) and Integral of Control Signal (ICO). The proposed controller produced best performance for all the tests with the least ISE index.

Keywords: PID controller, fractional-order PID controller, PI control tuning, steam temperature control, Ziegler-Nichols tuning.

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4844 Reduction in Population Growth under Various Contraceptive Strategies in Uttar Pradesh, India

Authors: Prashant Verma, K. K. Singh, Anjali Singh, Ujjaval Srivastava

Abstract:

Contraceptive policies have been derived to achieve desired reductions in the growth rate and also, applied to the data of Uttar-Pradesh, India for illustration. Using the Lotka’s integral equation for the stable population, expressions for the proportion of contraceptive users at different ages have been obtained. At the age of 20 years, 42% of contraceptive users is imperative to reduce the present annual growth rate of 0.036 to 0.02, assuming that 40% of the contraceptive users discontinue at the age of 25 years and 30% again continue contraceptive use at age 30 years. Further, presuming that 75% of women start using contraceptives at the age of 23 years, and 50% of the remaining women start using contraceptives at the age of 28 years, while the rest of them start using it at the age of 32 years. If we set a minimum age of marriage as 20 years, a reduction of 0.019 in growth rate will be obtained. This study describes how the level of contraceptive use at different age groups of women reduces the growth rate in the state of Uttar Pradesh. The article also promotes delayed marriage in the region.

Keywords: Child bearing, contraceptive devices, contraceptive policies, population growth, stable population.

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4843 Energy-Efficient Sensing Concept for a Micromachined Yaw Rate Sensor

Authors: D. Oshinubi, M. Rocznik, K. Dostert

Abstract:

The need for micromechanical inertial sensors is increasing in future electronic stability control (ESC) and other positioning, navigation and guidance systems. Due to the rising density of sensors in automotive and consumer devices the goal is not only to get high performance, robustness and smaller package sizes, but also to optimize the energy management of the overall sensor system. This paper presents an evaluation concept for a surface micromachined yaw rate sensor. Within this evaluation concept an energy-efficient operation of the drive mode of the yaw rate sensor is enabled. The presented system concept can be realized within a power management subsystem.

Keywords: inertial sensors, micromachined gyros, gyro sensing concepts, power management, FPGA

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