Search results for: multidimensional data model

Authors: F. Urem, K. Fertalj, I. Livaja

Abstract:

Constant upgrading of Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) systems is necessary, but can cause new defects. This paper attempts to model the likelihood of defects after completed upgrades with Weibull defect probability density function (PDF). A case study is presented analyzing data of recorded defects obtained for one ERP subsystem. The trends are observed for the value of the parameters relevant to the proposed statistical Weibull distribution for a given one year period. As a result, the ability to predict the appearance of defects after the next upgrade is described.

Keywords: ERP, upgrade, reliability, Weibull model

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Authors: D. S. C. Soares, D. G. Costa, J. T. S., A. K. S. Abud, T. P. Nunes, A. M. Oliveira Júnior

Abstract:

Mathematical models of drying are used for the purpose of understanding the drying process in order to determine important parameters for design and operation of the dryer. The jackfruit is a fruit with high consumption in the Northeast and perishability. It is necessary to apply techniques to improve their conservation for longer in order to diffuse it by regions with low consumption. This study aimed to analyze several mathematical models (Page, Lewis, and Midilli) to indicate one that best fits the conditions of convective drying process using performance indicators associated with each model: accuracy (Af) and noise factors (Bf), mean square error (RMSE) and standard error of prediction (% SEP). Jackfruit drying was carried out in convective type tray dryer at a temperature of 50°C for 9 hours. It is observed that the model Midili was more accurate with Af: 1.39, Bf: 1.33, RMSE: 0.01%, and SEP: 5.34. However, the use of the Model Midilli is not appropriate for purposes of control process due to need four tuning parameters. With the performance indicators used in this paper, the Page model showed similar results with only two parameters. It is concluded that the best correlation between the experimental and estimated data is given by the Page’s model.

Keywords: Drying, models, jackfruit.

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Authors: Hermenegilde Nkurunziza, Albrecht Gebhardt, Juergen Pilz

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The focus in this work is to assess which method allows a better forecasting of malaria cases in Bujumbura ( Burundi) when taking into account association between climatic factors and the disease. For the period 1996-2007, real monthly data on both malaria epidemiology and climate in Bujumbura are described and analyzed. We propose a hierarchical approach to achieve our objective. We first fit a Generalized Additive Model to malaria cases to obtain an accurate predictor, which is then used to predict future observations. Various well-known forecasting methods are compared leading to different results. Based on in-sample mean average percentage error (MAPE), the multiplicative exponential smoothing state space model with multiplicative error and seasonality performed better.

Keywords: Burundi, Forecasting, Malaria, Regressionmodel, State space model.

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Authors: N. Reppas, Y. L. Gui, B. Wetenhall, C. T. Davie, J. Ma

Abstract:

A theoretical constitutive model describing the stress-strain behavior of rock subjected to different confining pressures is presented. A bounding surface plastic model with hardening effects is proposed which includes the effect of temperature drop. The bounding surface is based on a mapping rule and the temperature effect on rock is controlled by Poisson’s ratio. Validation of the results against available experimental data is also presented. The relation of deviatoric stress and axial strain is illustrated at different temperatures to analyze the effect of temperature decrease in terms of stiffness of the material.

Keywords: Bounding surface, cooling of rock, plasticity model, rock deformation, elasto-plastic behavior.

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Authors: Catherine A. Todd, Fazel Naghdy

Abstract:

In this work a surgical simulator is produced which enables a training otologist to conduct a virtual, real-time prosthetic insertion. The simulator provides the Ear, Nose and Throat surgeon with real-time visual and haptic responses during virtual cochlear implantation into a 3D model of the human Scala Tympani (ST). The parametric model is derived from measured data as published in the literature and accounts for human morphological variance, such as differences in cochlear shape, enabling patient-specific pre- operative assessment. Haptic modeling techniques use real physical data and insertion force measurements, to develop a force model which mimics the physical behavior of an implant as it collides with the ST walls during an insertion. Output force profiles are acquired from the insertion studies conducted in the work, to validate the haptic model. The simulator provides the user with real-time, quantitative insertion force information and associated electrode position as user inserts the virtual implant into the ST model. The information provided by this study may also be of use to implant manufacturers for design enhancements as well as for training specialists in optimal force administration, using the simulator. The paper reports on the methods for anatomical modeling and haptic algorithm development, with focus on simulator design, development, optimization and validation. The techniques may be transferrable to other medical applications that involve prosthetic device insertions where user vision is obstructed.

Keywords: Haptic modeling, medical device insertion, real-time visualization of prosthetic implantation, surgical simulation.

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Authors: S.Ali Al-Mawsawi

Abstract:

In this paper, a new developed construction model of the UPFC is proposed. The construction of this model consists of one shunt compensation block and two series compensation blocks. In this case, the UPFC with the new construction model will be investigated when it is installed in multi-machine systems with nonlinear load model. In addition, the steady–state performance of the new model operating as impedance compensation will be presented and compared with that obtained from the system without compensation.

Keywords: UPFC, PWM, Nonlinear load, Multi-Machines system

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Authors: Zhen Chen, Haitao Zhang, Weiyong Ying, Dingye Fang

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The direct synthesis process of dimethyl ether (DME) from syngas in slurry reactors is considered to be promising because of its advantages in caloric transfer. In this paper, the influences of operating conditions (temperature, pressure and weight hourly space velocity) on the conversion of CO, selectivity of DME and methanol were studied in a stirred autoclave over Cu-Zn-Al-Zr slurry catalyst, which is far more suitable to liquid phase dimethyl ether synthesis process than bifunctional catalyst commercially. A Langmuir- Hinshelwood mechanism type global kinetics model for liquid phase DME direct synthesis based on methanol synthesis models and a methanol dehydration model has been investigated by fitting our experimental data. The model parameters were estimated with MATLAB program based on general Genetic Algorithms and Levenberg-Marquardt method, which is suitably fitting experimental data and its reliability was verified by statistical test and residual error analysis.

Keywords: alcohol/ether fuel, Cu-Zn-Al-Zr slurry catalyst, global kinetics, slurry reactor

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Authors: D. A. Farinde

Abstract:

One of the most significant threats to the economy of a nation is the bankruptcy of its banks. This study evaluates the susceptibility of Nigerian banks to failure with a view to identifying ratios and financial data that are sensitive to solvency of the bank. Further, a predictive model is generated to guide all stakeholders in the industry. Thirty quoted banks that had published Annual Reports for the year preceding the consolidation i.e. year 2004 were selected. They were examined for distress using the Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network Analysis. The model was used to analyze further reforms by the Central Bank of Nigeria using published Annual Reports of twenty quoted banks for the year 2008 and 2011. The model can thus be used for future prediction of failure in the Nigerian banking system.

Keywords: Bank, Bankruptcy, Financial Ratios, Neural Network, Multilayer Perceptron, Predictive Model

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Authors: Wanhyun Cho, Soonja Kang, Sangkyoon Kim, Soonyoung Park

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In this paper, we present the human action recognition method using the variational Bayesian HMM with the Dirichlet process mixture (DPM) of the Gaussian-Wishart emission model (GWEM). First, we define the Bayesian HMM based on the Dirichlet process, which allows an infinite number of Gaussian-Wishart components to support continuous emission observations. Second, we have considered an efficient variational Bayesian inference method that can be applied to drive the posterior distribution of hidden variables and model parameters for the proposed model based on training data. And then we have derived the predictive distribution that may be used to classify new action. Third, the paper proposes a process of extracting appropriate spatial-temporal feature vectors that can be used to recognize a wide range of human behaviors from input video image. Finally, we have conducted experiments that can evaluate the performance of the proposed method. The experimental results show that the method presented is more efficient with human action recognition than existing methods.

Keywords: Human action recognition, Bayesian HMM, Dirichlet process mixture model, Gaussian-Wishart emission model, Variational Bayesian inference, Prior distribution and approximate posterior distribution, KTH dataset.

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Authors: Nuraini Yusoff, Harun Budin, Salemah Ismail

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Identifying parameters in an epidemic model is one of the important aspect of modeling. In this paper, we suggest a method to identify the transmission rate by using the multistage Adomian decomposition method. As a case study, we use the data of the reported dengue fever cases in the city of Shah Alam, Malaysia. The result obtained fairly represents the actual situation. However, in the SIR model, this method serves as an alternative in parameter identification and enables us to make necessary analysis for a smaller interval.

Keywords: dengue fever, multistage Adomian decomposition method, Shah Alam, SIR model

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Authors: Yuzhi Cai

Abstract:

In this paper, we discuss a Bayesian approach to quantile autoregressive (QAR) time series model estimation and forecasting. Together with a combining forecasts technique, we then predict USD to GBP currency exchange rates. Combined forecasts contain all the information captured by the fitted QAR models at different quantile levels and are therefore better than those obtained from individual models. Our results show that an unequally weighted combining method performs better than other forecasting methodology. We found that a median AR model can perform well in point forecasting when the predictive density functions are symmetric. However, in practice, using the median AR model alone may involve the loss of information about the data captured by other QAR models. We recommend that combined forecasts should be used whenever possible.

Keywords: Exchange rate, quantile regression, combining forecasts.

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Authors: Ying Shang, Chencheng Wang

Abstract:

The wind field is the main driving factor for the spread of forest fires. For the simulation results of forest fire spread to be more accurate, it is necessary to obtain more detailed wind field data. Therefore, this paper studied the mountainous fine wind field simulation method coupled with WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting Model) and CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) to realize the numerical simulation of the wind field in a mountainous area with a scale of 30 m and a small measurement error. Local topographical changes have an important impact on the wind field. Based on the Rothermel fire spread model, a forest fire in Idaho in the western United States was simulated. The historical data proved that the simulation results had a good accuracy. They showed that the fire spread rate will decrease rapidly with time and then reach a steady state. After reaching a steady state, the fire spread growth area will not only be affected by the slope, but will also show a significant quadratic linear positive correlation with the wind speed change.

Keywords: Wind field, numerical simulation, forest fire spread, fire behavior model, complex terrain.

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Authors: Usha Lokala, Srinivas Nowduri, Prabhakar K. Sharma

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Useful information has been extracted from the road accident data in United Kingdom (UK), using data analytics method, for avoiding possible accidents in rural and urban areas. This analysis make use of several methodologies such as data integration, support vector machines (SVM), correlation machines and multinomial goodness. The entire datasets have been imported from the traffic department of UK with due permission. The information extracted from these huge datasets forms a basis for several predictions, which in turn avoid unnecessary memory lapses. Since data is expected to grow continuously over a period of time, this work primarily proposes a new framework model which can be trained and adapt itself to new data and make accurate predictions. This work also throws some light on use of SVM’s methodology for text classifiers from the obtained traffic data. Finally, it emphasizes the uniqueness and adaptability of SVMs methodology appropriate for this kind of research work.

Keywords: Road accident, machine learning, support vector machines.

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Authors: Hamed Rafiei, Masoud Rabbani

Abstract:

This paper addresses one of the most important issues have been considered in hybrid MTS/MTO production environments. To cope with the problem, a mathematical programming model is applied from a tactical point of view. The model is converted to a fuzzy goal programming model, because a degree of uncertainty is involved in hybrid MTS/MTO context. Finally, application of the proposed model in an industrial center is reported and the results prove the validity of the model.

Keywords: Fuzzy sets theory, Hybrid MTS/MTO, Order penetration point, Quadratic programming.

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Authors: Ajay Shekhar Pandey, D. Singh, S. K. Sinha

Abstract:

A clustering based technique has been developed and implemented for Short Term Load Forecasting, in this article. Formulation has been done using Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) as an objective function. Data Matrix and cluster size are optimization variables. Model designed, uses two temperature variables. This is compared with six input Radial Basis Function Neural Network (RBFNN) and Fuzzy Inference Neural Network (FINN) for the data of the same system, for same time period. The fuzzy inference system has the network structure and the training procedure of a neural network which initially creates a rule base from existing historical load data. It is observed that the proposed clustering based model is giving better forecasting accuracy as compared to the other two methods. Test results also indicate that the RBFNN can forecast future loads with accuracy comparable to that of proposed method, where as the training time required in the case of FINN is much less.

Keywords: Load forecasting, clustering, fuzzy inference.

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Authors: Krzysztof Fujarewicz

Abstract:

This paper presents a predictive model of sensor readings for mobile robot. The model predicts sensor readings for given time horizon based on current sensor readings and velocities of wheels assumed for this horizon. Similar models for such anticipation have been proposed in the literature. The novelty of the model presented in the paper comes from the fact that its structure takes into account physical phenomena and is not just a black box, for example a neural network. From this point of view it may be regarded as a semi-phenomenological model. The model is developed for the Khepera robot, but after certain modifications, it may be applied for any robot with distance sensors such as infrared or ultrasonic sensors.

Keywords: Mobile robot, sensors, prediction, anticipation.

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Authors: Barath Kumar, Oliver Niggemann, Juergen Jasperneite

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Model-based approaches have been applied successfully to a wide range of tasks such as specification, simulation, testing, and diagnosis. But one bottleneck often prevents the introduction of these ideas: Manual modeling is a non-trivial, time-consuming task. Automatically deriving models by observing and analyzing running systems is one possible way to amend this bottleneck. To derive a model automatically, some a-priori knowledge about the model structure–i.e. about the system–must exist. Such a model formalism would be used as follows: (i) By observing the network traffic, a model of the long-term system behavior could be generated automatically, (ii) Test vectors can be generated from the model, (iii) While the system is running, the model could be used to diagnose non-normal system behavior. The main contribution of this paper is the introduction of a model formalism called 'probabilistic regression automaton' suitable for the tasks mentioned above.

Keywords: Model-based approach, Probabilistic regression automata, Statistical models and Timed automata.

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Authors: S. Vidhya, S. Sarumathi, N. Shanthi

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Over the past era, there have been a lot of efforts and studies are carried out in growing proficient tools for performing various tasks in big data. Recently big data have gotten a lot of publicity for their good reasons. Due to the large and complex collection of datasets it is difficult to process on traditional data processing applications. This concern turns to be further mandatory for producing various tools in big data. Moreover, the main aim of big data analytics is to utilize the advanced analytic techniques besides very huge, different datasets which contain diverse sizes from terabytes to zettabytes and diverse types such as structured or unstructured and batch or streaming. Big data is useful for data sets where their size or type is away from the capability of traditional relational databases for capturing, managing and processing the data with low-latency. Thus the out coming challenges tend to the occurrence of powerful big data tools. In this survey, a various collection of big data tools are illustrated and also compared with the salient features.

Keywords: Big data, Big data analytics, Business analytics, Data analysis, Data visualization, Data discovery.

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Authors: Jolanta Tamošaitienė

Abstract:

The article focuses on a developed comprehensive model to be used in an agile environment for the risk assessment and selection based on multi-attribute methods. The model is based on a multi-attribute evaluation of risk in construction, and the determination of their optimality criterion values are calculated using complex Multiple Criteria Decision-Making methods. The model may be further applied to risk assessment in an agile construction environment. The attributes of risk in a construction project are selected by applying the risk assessment condition to the construction sector, and the construction process efficiency in the construction industry accounts for the agile environment. The paper presents the comprehensive risk assessment model in an agile construction environment. It provides a background and a description of the proposed model and the developed analysis of the comprehensive risk assessment model in an agile construction environment with the criteria.

Keywords: Assessment, environment, agile, model, risk.

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Authors: C. Noi-Okwei

Abstract:

In this study, participants with adjustment disorder with depressed mood (aged 18-54 years) with mild depression (N=18), severe depression (N=12) were compared with healthy controls (N=20) on the Multidimensional Aptitude Battery (MAB) a cognitive performance test. Using One Way Analysis of Variance and Matched Sample t-test. The results of the analysis shows that severely depressed participants performed poorly on the cognitive performance test relative to controls, however there were no significant differences on the cognitive performance test scores between the severely depressed and the mildly depressed. In addition, performance on the non-verbal performance subtest was poorer than that of the verbal subtest, suggesting that depression affects the executive functions of the person.

Keywords: adjustment disorder, cognitive performance test, Depression,

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Authors: Pantaleon Lutta, Mohamed Sedky, Mohamed Hassan

Abstract:

The inability of organizations to put in place management control measures for Internet of Things (IoT) complexities persists to be a risk concern. Policy makers have been left to scamper in finding measures to combat these security and privacy concerns. IoT forensics is a cumbersome process as there is no standardization of the IoT products, no or limited historical data are stored on the devices. This paper highlights why IoT forensics is a unique adventure and brought out the legal challenges encountered in the investigation process. A quadrant model is presented to study the conflicting aspects in IoT forensics. The model analyses the effectiveness of forensic investigation process versus the admissibility of the evidence integrity; taking into account the user privacy and the providers’ compliance with the laws and regulations. Our analysis concludes that a semi-automated forensic process using machine learning, could eliminate the human factor from the profiling and surveillance processes, and hence resolves the issues of data protection (privacy and confidentiality).

Keywords: Cloud forensics, data protection laws, GDPR, IoT forensics, machine learning.

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Authors: Tamara Nestorović, Jean Lefèvre, Stefan Ringwelski, Ulrich Gabbert

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Two approaches for model development of a smart acoustic box are suggested in this paper: the finite element (FE) approach and the subspace identification. Both approaches result in a state-space model, which can be used for obtaining the frequency responses and for the controller design. In order to validate the developed FE model and to perform the subspace identification, an experimental set-up with the acoustic box and dSPACE system was used. Experimentally obtained frequency responses show good agreement with the frequency responses obtained from the FE model and from the identified model.

Keywords: Acoustic box, experimental verification, finite element model, subspace identification.

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Authors: Hossein Zeinivand, Florimond De Smedt

Abstract:

Snow cover is an important phenomenon in hydrology, hence modeling the snow accumulation and melting is an important issue in places where snowmelt significantly contributes to runoff and has significant effect on water balance. The physics-based models are invariably distributed, with the basin disaggregated into zones or grid cells. Satellites images provide valuable data to verify the accuracy of spatially distributed model outputs. In this study a spatially distributed physically based model (WetSpa) was applied to predict snow cover and melting in the Latyan dam watershed in Iran. Snowmelt is simulated based on an energy balance approach. The model is applied and calibrated with one year of observed daily precipitation, air temperature, windspeed, and daily potential evaporation. The predicted snow-covered area is compared with remotely sensed images (MODIS). The results show that simulated snow cover area SCA has a good agreement with satellite image snow cover area SCA from MODIS images. The model performance is also tested by statistical and graphical comparison of simulated and measured discharges entering the Latyan dam reservoir.

Keywords: Physical based model, Satellite image, Snow covers.

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Authors: Dariush Jafari, Seyed Ali Jafari

Abstract:

The recommended limit for cadmium concentration in potable water is less than 0.005 mg/L. A continuous biosorption process using indigenous red seaweed, Gracilaria corticata, was performed to remove cadmium from the potable water. The process was conducted under fixed conditions and the breakthrough curves were achieved for three consecutive sorption-desorption cycles. A modeling based on Artificial Neural Network (ANN) was employed to fit the experimental breakthrough data. In addition, a simplified semi empirical model, Thomas, was employed for this purpose. It was found that ANN well described the experimental data (R2>0.99) while the Thomas prediction were a bit less successful with R2>0.97. The adjusted design parameters using the nonlinear form of Thomas model was in a good agreement with the experimentally obtained ones. The results approve the capability of ANN to predict the cadmium concentration in potable water.

Keywords: ANN, biosorption, cadmium, packed-bed, potable water.

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Authors: Ginhsuan Li, Chiuyun Hung, Desheng Chen, Yiwen Wang

Abstract:

Application-Specific Instruction (ASI ) set Processors (ASIP) have become an important design choice for embedded systems due to runtime flexibility, which cannot be provided by custom ASIC solutions. One major bottleneck in maximizing ASIP performance is the limitation on the data bandwidth between the General Purpose Register File (GPRF) and ASIs. This paper presents the Implicit Registers (IRs) to provide the desirable data bandwidth. An ASI Input/Output model is proposed to formulate the overheads of the additional data transfer between the GPRF and IRs, therefore, an IRs allocation algorithm is used to achieve the better performance by minimizing the number of extra data transfer instructions. The experiment results show an up to 3.33x speedup compared to the results without using IRs.

Keywords: Application-Specific Instruction-set Processors, data bandwidth, configurable processor, implicit register.

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Authors: Wararat Rungworawut, Twittie Senivongse

Abstract:

Business process model describes process flow of a business and can be seen as the requirement for developing a software application. This paper discusses a BPM2CD guideline which complements the Model Driven Architecture concept by suggesting how to create a platform-independent software model in the form of a UML class diagram from a business process model. An important step is the identification of UML classes from the business process model. A technique for object-oriented analysis called domain analysis is borrowed and key concepts in the business process model will be discovered and proposed as candidate classes for the class diagram. The paper enhances this step by using ontology search to help identify important classes for the business domain. As ontology is a source of knowledge for a particular domain which itself can link to ontologies of related domains, the search can give a refined set of candidate classes for the resulting class diagram.

Keywords: Business Process Model, Model DrivenArchitecture, Ontology, UML Class Diagram.

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Authors: Weiwen Li, Hao Huang, Chengmao You, Jianji Liao, Lei Wang, Lina An

Abstract:

Zooplankton are a central issue in the ecology which makes a great contribution to maintaining the balance of an ecosystem. It is critical in promoting the material cycle and energy flow within the ecosystems. A generalized additive model (GAM) was applied to analyze the relationships between the density (individuals per m³) of zooplankton and other variables in West Daya Bay. All data used in this analysis (the survey month, survey station (longitude and latitude), the depth of the water column, the superficial concentration of chlorophyll a, the benthonic concentration of chlorophyll a, the number of zooplankton species and the number of zooplankton species) were collected through monthly scientific surveys during January to December 2016. GLM model (generalized linear model) was used to choose the significant variables’ impact on the density of zooplankton, and the GAM was employed to analyze the relationship between the density of zooplankton and the significant variables. The results showed that the density of zooplankton increased with an increase of the benthonic concentration of chlorophyll a, but decreased with a decrease in the depth of the water column. Both high numbers of zooplankton species and the overall total number of zooplankton individuals led to a higher density of zooplankton.

Keywords: Density, generalized linear model, generalized additive model, the West Daya Bay, zooplankton.

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Authors: H. Omrani, P. Gerber

Abstract:

Success is a European project that will implement several clean transport offers in three European cities and evaluate the environmental impacts. The goal of these measures is to improve urban mobility or the displacement of residents inside cities. For e.g. park and ride, electric vehicles, hybrid bus and bike sharing etc. A list of 28 criteria and 60 measures has been established for evaluation of these transport projects. The evaluation criteria can be grouped into: Transport, environment, social, economic and fuel consumption. This article proposes a decision support system based that encapsulates a hybrid approach based on fuzzy logic, multicriteria analysis and belief theory for the evaluation of impacts of urban mobility solutions. A web-based tool called DeSSIA (Decision Support System for Impacts Assessment) has been developed that treats complex data. The tool has several functionalities starting from data integration (import of data), evaluation of projects and finishes by graphical display of results. The tool development is based on the concept of MVC (Model, View, and Controller). The MVC is a conception model adapted to the creation of software's which impose separation between data, their treatment and presentation. Effort is laid on the ergonomic aspects of the application. It has codes compatible with the latest norms (XHTML, CSS) and has been validated by W3C (World Wide Web Consortium). The main ergonomic aspect focuses on the usability of the application, ease of learning and adoption. By the usage of technologies such as AJAX (XML and Java Script asynchrones), the application is more rapid and convivial. The positive points of our approach are that it treats heterogeneous data (qualitative, quantitative) from various information sources (human experts, survey, sensors, model etc.).

Keywords: Decision support tool, hybrid approach, urban mobility.

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Authors: Nureddin Dinler, Nuri Yucel

Abstract:

Improving the performance of internal combustion engines is one of the major concerns of researchers. Experimental studies are more expensive than computational studies. Also using computational techniques allows one to obtain all the required data for the cylinder, some of which could not be measured. In this study, an axisymmetric homogeneous charged spark ignition engine was modeled. Fluid motion and combustion process were investigated numerically. Turbulent flow conditions were considered. Standard k- ε turbulence model for fluid flow and eddy break-up model for turbulent combustion were utilized. The effects of valve angle on the fluid flow and combustion are analyzed for constant air/fuel and compression ratios. It is found that, velocities and strength of tumble increases in-cylinder flow and due to increase in turbulence strength, the flame propagation is faster for small valve angles.

Keywords: CFD simulation, eddy break-up model, k-εturbulence model, reciprocating engine flow and combustion.

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Authors: Fajaruddin Mustakim, Motohiro Fujita

Abstract:

This paper present the study carried out of accident analysis, black spot study and to develop accident predictive models based on the data collected at rural roadway, Federal Route 50 (F050) Malaysia. The road accident trends and black spot ranking were established on the F050. The development of the accident prediction model will concentrate in Parit Raja area from KM 19 to KM 23. Multiple non-linear regression method was used to relate the discrete accident data with the road and traffic flow explanatory variable. The dependent variable was modeled as the number of crashes namely accident point weighting, however accident point weighting have rarely been account in the road accident prediction Models. The result show that, the existing number of major access points, without traffic light, rise in speed, increasing number of Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT), growing number of motorcycle and motorcar and reducing the time gap are the potential contributors of increment accident rates on multiple rural roadway.

Keywords: Accident Trends, Black Spot Study, Accident Prediction Model

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