Search results for: Early stage prediction

Authors: Sajjad Ahmed, Knut Hinkelmann, Flavio Corradini

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Fake news detection research is still in the early stage as this is a relatively new phenomenon in the interest raised by society. Machine learning helps to solve complex problems and to build AI systems nowadays and especially in those cases where we have tacit knowledge or the knowledge that is not known. We used machine learning algorithms and for identification of fake news; we applied three classifiers; Passive Aggressive, Naïve Bayes, and Support Vector Machine. Simple classification is not completely correct in fake news detection because classification methods are not specialized for fake news. With the integration of machine learning and text-based processing, we can detect fake news and build classifiers that can classify the news data. Text classification mainly focuses on extracting various features of text and after that incorporating those features into classification. The big challenge in this area is the lack of an efficient way to differentiate between fake and non-fake due to the unavailability of corpora. We applied three different machine learning classifiers on two publicly available datasets. Experimental analysis based on the existing dataset indicates a very encouraging and improved performance.

Keywords: Fake news detection, types of fake news, machine learning, natural language processing, classification techniques.

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Authors: A. U. Moreh, M. Momoh, H. N. Yahya, B. Hamza, I. G. Saidu, S. Abdullahi

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This work studies the effect of thickness on structural and electrical properties of CuAlS2 thin films grown by two stage vacuum thermal evaporation technique. CuAlS2 thin films of thicknesses 50nm, 100nm and 200nm were deposited on suitably cleaned corning 7059 glass substrate at room temperature (RT). In the first stage Cu-Al precursors were grown at room temperature by thermal evaporation and in the second stage Cu-Al precursors were converted to CuAlS2 thin films by sulfurisation under sulfur atmosphere at the temperature of 673K. The structural properties of the films were examined by X-ray diffraction (XRD) technique while electrical properties of the specimens were studied using four point probe method. The XRD studies revealed that the films are of crystalline in nature having tetragonal structure. The variations of the micro-structural parameters, such as crystallite size (D), dislocation density ( ), and micro-strain ( ), with film thickness were investigated. The results showed that the crystallite sizes increase as the thickness of the film increases. The dislocation density and micro-strain decreases as the thickness increases. The resistivity (  ) of CuAlS2 film is found to decrease with increase in film thickness, which is related to the increase of carrier concentration with film thickness. Thus thicker films exhibit the lowest resistivity and high carrier concentration, implying these are the most conductive films. Low electrical resistivity and high carrier concentration are widely used as the essential components in various optoelectronic devices such as light-emitting diode and photovoltaic cells.

Keywords: Crystalline, CuAlS2, evaporation, resistivity, sulfurisation, thickness.

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Authors: M. Raciti Castelli, G. Grandi, E. Benini

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This paper presents a study of laminar to turbulent transition on a profile specifically designed for wind turbine blades, the DU91-W2-250, which belongs to a class of wind turbine dedicated airfoils, developed by Delft University of Technology. A comparison between the experimental behavior of the airfoil studied at Delft wind tunnel and the numerical predictions of the commercial CFD solver ANSYS FLUENT® has been performed. The prediction capabilities of the Spalart-Allmaras turbulence model and of the γ-θ Transitional model have been tested. A sensitivity analysis of the numerical results to the spatial domain discretization has also been performed using four different computational grids, which have been created using the mesher GAMBIT®. The comparison between experimental measurements and CFD results have allowed to determine the importance of the numerical prediction of the laminar to turbulent transition, in order not to overestimate airfoil friction drag due to a fully turbulent-regime flow computation.

Keywords: CFD, wind turbine, DU91-W2-250, laminar to turbulent transition.

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Authors: Zohreh Sheikh Khozani, Wan Hanna Melini Wan Mohtar, Mojtaba Porhemmat

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Prediction of wall shear stress in a rectangular channel, with non-homogeneous roughness distribution, was studied. Estimation of shear stress is an important subject in hydraulic engineering, since it affects the flow structure directly. In this study, the Genetic Algorithm Artificial (GAA) neural network is introduced as a hybrid methodology of the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and modified Genetic Algorithm (GA) combination. This GAA method was employed to predict the wall shear stress. Various input combinations and transfer functions were considered to find the most appropriate GAA model. The results show that the proposed GAA method could predict the wall shear stress of open channels with high accuracy, by Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 0.064 in the test dataset. Thus, using GAA provides an accurate and practical simple-to-use equation.

Keywords: Artificial neural network, genetic algorithm, genetic programming, rectangular channel, shear stress.

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Authors: H.Hosseini, A.A. Azemati

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The fundamental defect inherent to the thermoforming technology is wall-thickness variation of the products due to inadequate thermal processing during production of polymer. A nonlinear viscoelastic rheological model is implemented for developing the process model. This model describes deformation process of a sheet in thermoforming process. Because of relaxation pause after plug-assist stage and also implementation of two stage thermoforming process have minor wall-thickness variation and consequently better mechanical properties of polymeric articles. For model validation, a comparative analysis of the theoretical and experimental data is presented.

Keywords: High-quality polymeric article, Thermal Processing, Rheological model, Minor wall-thickness variation.

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Authors: Mahmoud Elmezain, Ayoub Al-Hamadi, Bernd Michaelis

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Hand gesture is an active area of research in the vision community, mainly for the purpose of sign language recognition and Human Computer Interaction. In this paper, we propose a system to recognize alphabet characters (A-Z) and numbers (0-9) in real-time from stereo color image sequences using Hidden Markov Models (HMMs). Our system is based on three main stages; automatic segmentation and preprocessing of the hand regions, feature extraction and classification. In automatic segmentation and preprocessing stage, color and 3D depth map are used to detect hands where the hand trajectory will take place in further step using Mean-shift algorithm and Kalman filter. In the feature extraction stage, 3D combined features of location, orientation and velocity with respected to Cartesian systems are used. And then, k-means clustering is employed for HMMs codeword. The final stage so-called classification, Baum- Welch algorithm is used to do a full train for HMMs parameters. The gesture of alphabets and numbers is recognized using Left-Right Banded model in conjunction with Viterbi algorithm. Experimental results demonstrate that, our system can successfully recognize hand gestures with 98.33% recognition rate.

Keywords: Gesture Recognition, Computer Vision & Image Processing, Pattern Recognition.

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Authors: Ganiyu Amuda Yusuf, Sarajul Fikri Mohamed

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The procurement and cost management approach adopted for mechanical and electrical (M&E) services in Malaysian construction industry have been criticized for its inefficiency. The study examined early cost estimating practices adopted for mechanical and electrical services (M&E) in Malaysia so as to understand the level of compliance of the current techniques with best practices. The methodology adopted for the study is a review of bidding documents used on both completed and on – going building projects awarded between 2008 – 2010 under 9th Malaysian Plan. The analysis revealed that, M&E services cost cannot be reliably estimated at pre-contract stage; the bidding techniques adopted for M&E services failed to provide uniform basis for contractors to submit tender; detailed measurement of items were not made which could complicate post contract cost control and financial management. The paper concluded that, there is need to follow a structured approach in determining the pre-contract cost estimate for M&E services which will serve as a virile tool for post contract cost control.

Keywords: Cost Management, Mechanical and Electrical Services, Procurement, Standard Method of Measurement

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Authors: Assem M. F. Sallam, Ah. El-S. Makled

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This paper presents a study on the trajectory of a two stage launch vehicle. The study includes dynamic responses of motion parameters as well as the variation of angles affecting the orientation of the launch vehicle (LV). LV dynamic characteristics including state vector variation with corresponding altitude and velocity for the different LV stages separation, as well as the angle of attack and flight path angles are also discussed. A flight trajectory study for the drop zone of first stage and the jettisoning of fairing are introduced in the mathematical modeling to study their effect. To increase the accuracy of the LV model, atmospheric model is used taking into consideration geographical location and the values of solar flux related to the date and time of launch, accurate atmospheric model leads to enhancement of the calculation of Mach number, which affects the drag force over the LV. The mathematical model is implemented on MATLAB based software (Simulink). The real available experimental data are compared with results obtained from the theoretical computation model. The comparison shows good agreement, which proves the validity of the developed simulation model; the maximum error noticed was generally less than 10%, which is a result that can lead to future works and enhancement to decrease this level of error.

Keywords: Launch vehicle modeling, launch vehicle trajectory, mathematical modeling, MATLAB-Simulink.

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Authors: Simran Ballani

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The purpose of this paper is to call education professionals to implement etiquette and public speaking skills for preschoolers, primary, middle and higher school students. In this paper the author aims to present importance of etiquette learning and public speaking curriculum for preschoolers, reflect on experiences from implementation of the curriculum and discuss the effect of the said implementation on higher education/global job market. Author’s aim to introduce this curriculum was to provide children with innovative learning and all around development. This training of soft skills at kindergarten level can have a long term effect on their social behaviors which in turn can contribute to professional success once they are ready for campus recruitment/global job markets. Additionally, if preschoolers learn polite, appropriate behavior at early age, it will enable them to become more socially attentive and display good manners as an adult. It is easier to nurture these skills in a child rather than changing bad manners at adulthood. Preschool/Kindergarten education can provide the platform for children to learn these crucial soft skills irrespective of the ethnicity, economic or social background they come from. These skills developed at such early years can go a long way to shape them into better and confident individuals. Unfortunately, accessibility of the etiquette learning and public speaking skill education is not standardized in pre-primary or primary level and most of the time embedding into the kindergarten curriculum is next to nil. All young children should be provided with equal opportunity to learn these soft skills which are essential for finding their place in job market.

Keywords: Etiquette learning, public speaking, preschoolers, overall child development, early childhood interventions, soft skills.

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Authors: A. Brouri, F. Giri, A. Mkhida, F. Z. Chaoui, A. Elkarkri, M. L. Chhibat

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Standard Hammerstein-Wiener models consist of a linear subsystem sandwiched by two memoryless nonlinearities. The problem of identifying Hammerstein-Wiener systems is addressed in the presence of linear subsystem of structure totally unknown and polynomial input and output nonlinearities. Presently, the system nonlinearities are allowed to be noninvertible. The system identification problem is dealt by developing a two-stage frequency identification method. First, the parameters of system nonlinearities are identified. In the second stage, a frequency approach is designed to estimate the linear subsystem frequency gain. All involved estimators are proved to be consistent.

Keywords: Nonlinear system identification, Hammerstein systems, Wiener systems, frequency identification.

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Authors: Nastaran Moosavi, Mohammad Mokhtari

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Seismic inversion is a technique which has been in use for years and its main goal is to estimate and to model physical characteristics of rocks and fluids. Generally, it is a combination of seismic and well-log data. Seismic inversion can be carried out through different methods; we have conducted and compared post-stack and pre- stack seismic inversion methods on real data in one of the fields in the Persian Gulf. Pre-stack seismic inversion can transform seismic data to rock physics such as P-impedance, S-impedance and density. While post- stack seismic inversion can just estimate P-impedance. Then these parameters can be used in reservoir identification. Based on the results of inverting seismic data, a gas reservoir was detected in one of Hydrocarbon oil fields in south of Iran (Persian Gulf). By comparing post stack and pre-stack seismic inversion it can be concluded that the pre-stack seismic inversion provides a more reliable and detailed information for identification and prediction of hydrocarbon reservoirs.

Keywords: Density, P-impedance, S-impedance, post-stack seismic inversion, pre-stack seismic inversion.

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Authors: Ane Larrea, Victor Sebastian, Manuel Arruebo, Jesus Santamaria

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We present a gas-liquid microfluidic system as a reactor to obtain magnetite nanoparticles with an excellent degree of control regarding their crystalline phase, shape and size. Several types of microflow approaches were selected to prevent nanomaterial aggregation and to promote homogenous size distribution. The selected reactor consists of a mixer stage aided by ultrasound waves and a reaction stage using a N2-liquid segmented flow to prevent magnetite oxidation to non-magnetic phases. A milli-fluidic reactor was developed to increase the production rate where a magnetite throughput close to 450 mg/h in a continuous fashion was obtained.

Keywords: Microfluidics, magnetic nanoparticles, continuous production, nanomaterials.

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Authors: J. Bouchard, B. Prosperi, G. Bavre, M. Daudé, E. Jeandupeux

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Young patients suffering from Cerebral Palsy are facing difficult choices concerning heavy surgeries. Diagnosis settled by surgeons can be complex and on the other hand decision for patient about getting or not such a surgery involves important reflection effort. Proposed software combining prediction for surgeries and post surgery kinematic values, and from 3D model representing the patient is an innovative tool helpful for both patients and medicine professionals. Beginning with analysis and classification of kinematics values from Data Base extracted from gait analysis in 3 separated clusters, it is possible to determine close similarity between patients. Prediction surgery best adapted to improve a patient gait is then determined by operating a suitable preconditioned neural network. Finally, patient 3D modeling based on kinematic values analysis, is animated thanks to post surgery kinematic vectors characterizing the closest patient selected from patients clustering.

Keywords: Cerebral Palsy, Clustering, Crouch Gait, 3-D Modeling.

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Authors: Ruchika Malhotra, Megha Khanna

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The development of change prediction models can help the software practitioners in planning testing and inspection resources at early phases of software development. However, a major challenge faced during the training process of any classification model is the imbalanced nature of the software quality data. A data with very few minority outcome categories leads to inefficient learning process and a classification model developed from the imbalanced data generally does not predict these minority categories correctly. Thus, for a given dataset, a minority of classes may be change prone whereas a majority of classes may be non-change prone. This study explores various alternatives for adeptly handling the imbalanced software quality data using different sampling methods and effective MetaCost learners. The study also analyzes and justifies the use of different performance metrics while dealing with the imbalanced data. In order to empirically validate different alternatives, the study uses change data from three application packages of open-source Android data set and evaluates the performance of six different machine learning techniques. The results of the study indicate extensive improvement in the performance of the classification models when using resampling method and robust performance measures.

Keywords: Change proneness, empirical validation, imbalanced learning, machine learning techniques, object-oriented metrics.

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Authors: K. S. Jasmine, R. Vasantha

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Component-Based software engineering provides an opportunity for better quality and increased productivity in software development by using reusable software components [10]. One of the most critical aspects of the quality of a software system is its performance. The systematic application of software performance engineering techniques throughout the development process can help to identify design alternatives that preserve desirable qualities such as extensibility and reusability while meeting performance objectives [1]. In the present scenario, software engineering methodologies strongly focus on the functionality of the system, while applying a “fix- it-later" approach to software performance aspects [3]. As a result, lengthy fine-tunings, expensive extra hard ware, or even redesigns are necessary for the system to meet the performance requirements. In this paper, we propose design based, implementation independent, performance prediction approach to reduce the overhead associated in the later phases while developing a performance guaranteed software product with the help of Unified Modeling Language (UML).

Keywords: Software Reuse, Component-based development, Unified Modeling Language, Software performance, Software components, Performance engineering, Software engineering.

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Authors: Alexander Efremov

Abstract:

A system for market identification (SMI) is presented. The resulting representations are multivariable dynamic demand models. The market specifics are analyzed. Appropriate models and identification techniques are chosen. Multivariate static and dynamic models are used to represent the market behavior. The steps of the first stage of SMI, named data preprocessing, are mentioned. Next, the second stage, which is the model estimation, is considered in more details. Stepwise linear regression (SWR) is used to determine the significant cross-effects and the orders of the model polynomials. The estimates of the model parameters are obtained by a numerically stable estimator. Real market data is used to analyze SMI performance. The main conclusion is related to the applicability of multivariate dynamic models for representation of market systems.

Keywords: market identification, dynamic models, stepwise regression.

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Authors: Nadim Zgheib, Sivaramakrishnan Balachandar

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We present results on the initial formation of ripples from an initially flattened erodible bed. We use direct numerical simulations (DNS) of turbulent open channel flow over a fixed sinusoidal bed coupled with hydrodynamic stability analysis. We use the direct forcing immersed boundary method to account for the presence of the sediment bed. The resolved flow provides the bed shear stress and consequently the sediment transport rate, which is needed in the stability analysis of the Exner equation. The approach is different from traditional linear stability analysis in the sense that the phase lag between the bed topology, and the sediment flux is obtained from the DNS. We ran 11 simulations at a fixed shear Reynolds number of 180, but for different sediment bed wavelengths. The analysis allows us to sweep a large range of physical and modelling parameters to predict their effects on linear growth. The Froude number appears to be the critical controlling parameter in the early linear development of ripples, in contrast with the dominant role of particle Reynolds number during the equilibrium stage.

Keywords: Direct numerical simulation, immersed boundary method, sediment-bed interactions, turbulent multiphase flow, linear stability analysis.

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Authors: Anna Romanova, Mojtaba Mahmoodian, Upul Chandrasekara, Morteza A. Alani

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Corrosion of concrete sewer pipes induced by sulphuric acid attack is a recognised problem worldwide, which is not only an attribute of countries with hot climate conditions as thought before. The significance of this problem is by far only realised when the pipe collapses causing surface flooding and other severe consequences. To change the existing post-reactive attitude of managing companies, easy to use and robust models are required to be developed which currently lack reliable data to be correctly calibrated. This paper focuses on laboratory experiments of establishing concrete pipe corrosion rate by submerging samples in to 0.5pH sulphuric acid solution for 56 days under 10ºC, 20ºC and 30ºC temperature regimes. The result showed that at very early stage of the corrosion process the samples gained overall mass, at 30ºC the corrosion progressed quicker than for other temperature regimes, however with time the corrosion level for 10ºC and 20ºC regimes tended towards those at 30ºC. Overall, at these conditions the corrosion rates of 10 mm/year, 13,5 mm/year and 17 mm/year were observed.

Keywords: Sewer pipes, concrete corrosion, sulphuric acid, concrete coupons, corrosion rate.

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Authors: Tahseen A. Jilani, Aqil S. Burney, C. Ardil

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Time series models have been used to make predictions of academic enrollments, weather, road accident, casualties and stock prices, etc. Based on the concepts of quartile regression models, we have developed a simple time variant quantile based fuzzy time series forecasting method. The proposed method bases the forecast using prediction of future trend of the data. In place of actual quantiles of the data at each point, we have converted the statistical concept into fuzzy concept by using fuzzy quantiles using fuzzy membership function ensemble. We have given a fuzzy metric to use the trend forecast and calculate the future value. The proposed model is applied for TAIFEX forecasting. It is shown that proposed method work best as compared to other models when compared with respect to model complexity and forecasting accuracy.

Keywords: Quantile Regression, Fuzzy time series, fuzzy logicalrelationship groups, heuristic trend prediction.

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Authors: Alanoud Moraya Aldalan, Abdulaziz Almaleh

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A crucial part of maintaining a customer-oriented business in the telecommunications industry is understanding the reasons and factors that lead to customer churn. Competition between telecom companies has greatly increased in recent years, which has made it more important to understand customers’ needs in this strong market. For those who are looking to turn over their service providers, understanding their needs is especially important. Predictive churn is now a mandatory requirement for retaining customers in the telecommunications industry. Machine learning can be used to accomplish this. Churn Prediction has become a very important topic in terms of machine learning classification in the telecommunications industry. Understanding the factors of customer churn and how they behave is very important to building an effective churn prediction model. This paper aims to predict churn and identify factors of customers’ churn based on their past service usage history. Aiming at this objective, the study makes use of feature selection, normalization, and feature engineering. Then, this study compared the performance of four different machine learning algorithms on the Orange dataset: Logistic Regression, Random Forest, Decision Tree, and Gradient Boosting. Evaluation of the performance was conducted by using the F1 score and ROC-AUC. Comparing the results of this study with existing models has proven to produce better results. The results showed the Gradients Boosting with feature selection technique outperformed in this study by achieving a 99% F1-score and 99% AUC, and all other experiments achieved good results as well.

Keywords: Machine Learning, Gradient Boosting, Logistic Regression, Churn, Random Forest, Decision Tree, ROC, AUC, F1-score.

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Authors: Pei-Ti Hsu, I-Ju Chen, Jeu-Jung Chen, Cheng-Fen Chang, Shiu-Yan Yang

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Background: Taiwan now is an aging society. Research on the elderly should not be confined to caring for seniors, but should also be focused on ways to improve health and the quality of life. Senior citizens who participate in volunteer services could become less lonely, have new growth opportunities, and regain a sense of accomplishment. Thus, the question of how to get the elderly to participate in volunteer service is worth exploring. Objective: Apply the Transtheoretical Model to understand stages of change in regular volunteer service and voluntary service behaviour among the seniors. Methods: 1525 adults over the age of 65 from the Renai district of Keelung City were interviewed. The research tool was a self-constructed questionnaire, and individual interviews were conducted to collect data. Then the data was processed and analyzed using the IBM SPSS Statistics 20 (Windows version) statistical software program. Results: In the past six months, research subjects averaged 9.92 days of volunteer services. A majority of these elderly individuals had no intention to change their regular volunteer services. We discovered that during the maintenance stage, the self-efficacy for volunteer services was higher than during all other stages, but self-perceived barriers were less during the preparation stage and action stage. Self-perceived benefits were found to have an important predictive power for those with regular volunteer service behaviors in the previous stage, and self-efficacy was found to have an important predictive power for those with regular volunteer service behaviors in later stages. Conclusions/Implications for Practice: The research results support the conclusion that community nursing staff should group elders based on their regular volunteer services change stages and design appropriate behavioral change strategies.

Keywords: Seniors, stages of change in regular volunteer services, volunteer service behavior, self-efficacy, self-perceived benefits.

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Authors: Z. Bottyán, F. Wantuch, A. Z. Gyöngyösi, Z. Tuba, K. Hadobács, P. Kardos, R. Kurunczi

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The sensitivity of UAVs to the atmospheric effects are apparent. All the same the meteorological support for the UAVs missions is often non-adequate or partly missing. In our paper we show a new complex meteorological support system for different types of UAVs pilots, specialists and decision makers, too. The mentioned system has two important parts with different forecasts approach such as the statistical and dynamical ones. The statistical prediction approach is based on a large climatological data base and the special analog method which is able to select similar weather situations from the mentioned data base to apply them during the forecasting procedure. The applied dynamic approach uses the specific WRF model runs twice a day and produces 96 hours, high resolution weather forecast for the UAV users over the Hungary. An easy to use web-based system can give important weather information over the Carpathian basin in Central-Europe. The mentioned products can be reached via internet connection.

Keywords: Aviation meteorology, statistical weather prediction, unmanned aerial systems, WRF.

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Authors: A. F. Khadrawi

Abstract:

The transient hydrodynamics and thermal behaviors of fluid flow in open-ended vertical parallel-plate porous microchannel are investigated semi-analytically under the effect of the hyperbolic heat conduction model. The model that combines both the continuum approach and the possibility of slip at the boundary is adopted in the study. The Effects of Knudsen number , Darcy number , and thermal relaxation time  on the microchannel hydrodynamics and thermal behaviors are investigated using the hyperbolic heat conduction models. It is found that as  increases the slip in the hydrodynamic and thermal boundary condition increases. This slip in the hydrodynamic boundary condition increases as  increases. Also, the slip in the thermal boundary condition increases as  decreases especially the early stage of time.

Keywords: free convection, hyperbolic heat conduction, macroscopic heat conduction models in microchannel, porous media, vertical microchannel, microchannel thermal, hydrodynamic behavior.

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Authors: Adrian Bostan, Nicolae Tapus, Adriana Tapus

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The purpose of this research paper is to study and develop a system that is able to help identify problems and improve human rehabilitation after traumatic injuries. Traumatic injuries in human’s lower limbs can occur over a life time and can have serious side effects if they are not treated correctly. In this paper, we developed an intelligent cane (IntelliCane) so as to help individuals in their rehabilitation process and provide feedback to the users. The first stage of the paper involves an analysis of the existing systems on the market and what can be improved. The second stage presents the design of the system. The third part, which is still under development is the validation of the system in real world setups with people in need. This paper presents mainly stages one and two.

Keywords: IntelliCane, 3D printing, microprocessor, weight measurement, rehabilitation tool.

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Authors: Xiaolei Hu, Enrico Ferrera, Riccardo Tomasi, Claudio Pastrone

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Load Forecasting plays a key role in making today's and future's Smart Energy Grids sustainable and reliable. Accurate power consumption prediction allows utilities to organize in advance their resources or to execute Demand Response strategies more effectively, which enables several features such as higher sustainability, better quality of service, and affordable electricity tariffs. It is easy yet effective to apply Load Forecasting at larger geographic scale, i.e. Smart Micro Grids, wherein the lower available grid flexibility makes accurate prediction more critical in Demand Response applications. This paper analyses the application of short-term load forecasting in a concrete scenario, proposed within the EU-funded GreenCom project, which collect load data from single loads and households belonging to a Smart Micro Grid. Three short-term load forecasting techniques, i.e. linear regression, artificial neural networks, and radial basis function network, are considered, compared, and evaluated through absolute forecast errors and training time. The influence of weather conditions in Load Forecasting is also evaluated. A new definition of Gain is introduced in this paper, which innovatively serves as an indicator of short-term prediction capabilities of time spam consistency. Two models, 24- and 1-hour-ahead forecasting, are built to comprehensively compare these three techniques.

Keywords: Short-term load forecasting, smart micro grid, linear regression, artificial neural networks, radial basis function network, Gain.

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Authors: F. Alborzi, H. Vafaei, M.H. Gholami, M.M. S. Esfahani

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In this article, the design of a Supply Chain Network (SCN) consisting of several suppliers, production plants, distribution centers and retailers, is considered. Demands of retailers are considered stochastic parameters, so we generate amounts of data via simulation to extract a few demand scenarios. Then a mixed integer two-stage programming model is developed to optimize simultaneously two objectives: (1) minimization the fixed and variable cost, (2) maximization the service level. A weighting method is utilized to solve this two objective problem and a numerical example is made to show the performance of the model.

Keywords: Mixed Integer Programming, Multi-objective Optimization, Stochastic Demand, Supply Chain Design, Two Stage Programming

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Authors: M. Karimpour, N. Elkhoury, L. Hitihamillage, S. Moridpour, R. Hesami

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There is a necessity among rail transportation authorities for a superior understanding of the rail track degradation overtime and the factors influencing rail degradation. They need an accurate technique to identify the time when rail tracks fail or need maintenance. In turn, this will help to increase the level of safety and comfort of the passengers and the vehicles as well as improve the cost effectiveness of maintenance activities. An accurate model can play a key role in prediction of the long-term behaviour of railroad tracks. An accurate model can decrease the cost of maintenance. In this research, the rail track degradation is predicted using an autoregressive moving average with exogenous input (ARMAX). An ARMAX has been implemented on Melbourne tram data to estimate the values for the tram track degradation. Gauge values and rail usage in Million Gross Tone (MGT) are the main parameters used in the model. The developed model can accurately predict the future status of the tram tracks.

Keywords: ARMAX, Dynamic systems, MGT, Prediction, Rail degradation.

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Authors: Arnaud Nougues

Abstract:

This paper describes a two-stage methodology derived from IMC (Internal Model Control) for tuning a PID (Proportional-Integral-Derivative) controller for levels or other integrating processes in an industrial environment. Focus is ease of use and implementation speed which are critical for an industrial application. Tuning can be done with minimum effort and without the need of time-consuming open-loop step tests on the plant. The first stage of the method applies to levels only: the vessel residence time is calculated from equipment dimensions and used to derive a set of preliminary PI (Proportional-Integral) settings with IMC. The second stage, re-tuning in closed-loop, applies to levels as well as other integrating processes: a tuning correction mechanism has been developed based on a series of closed-loop simulations with model errors. The tuning correction is done from a simple closed-loop step test and application of a generic correlation between observed overshoot and integral time correction. A spin-off of the method is that an estimate of the vessel residence time (levels) or open-loop process gain (other integrating process) is obtained from the closed-loop data.

Keywords: closed-loop model identification, IMC-PID tuning method, integrating process control, on-line PID tuning adaptation

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Authors: Wang Xu, Yao Yangyang, Lin Ying, Wang Zhenzhen

Abstract:

Intelligent Transportation System integrates various modern advanced technologies into the ground transportation system, and it will be the goal of urban transport system in the future because of its comprehensive effects. However, it also brings some problems, such as project performance assessment, fairness of benefiting groups, fund management, which are directly related to its operation and implementation. Wuhan has difficulties in organizing transportation because of its nature feature (river and lake), therefore, calling Service of Taxi plays an important role in transportation. This paper researches on calling Service of Taxi in Wuhan, based on quantitative and qualitative analysis. It analyzes its operations management systematically, including business model, finance, usage analysis and users evaluation. As for business model, it is that the government leads the operation at the initial stage, and the third part dominates the operation at the mature stage, which not only eases the pressure of the third part and benefits the spread of the calling service at the initial stage, but also alleviates financial pressure of government and improve the efficiency of the operation at the mature stage. As for finance, it draws that this service will bring heavy financial burden of equipments, but it will be alleviated in the future because of its spread. As for usage analysis, through data comparison, this service can bring some benefits for taxi drivers, and time and spatial distribution of usage have certain features. As for user evaluation, it analyzes using group and the reason why choosing it. At last, according to the analysis above, the paper puts forward the potentials, limitations, and future development strategies for it.

Keywords: Assessment, Calling service of taxi, Operations management, Strategies, Using groups.

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Authors: Gonzalo Rubio, Eusebio Valero, Sven Lanzan

Abstract:

The design of a modern aircraft is based on three pillars: theoretical results, experimental test and computational simulations. As a results of this, Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) solvers are widely used in the aeronautical field. These solvers require the correct selection of many parameters in order to obtain successful results. Besides, the computational time spent in the simulation depends on the proper choice of these parameters. In this paper we create an expert system capable of making an accurate prediction of the number of iterations and time required for the convergence of a computational fluid dynamic (CFD) solver. Artificial neural network (ANN) has been used to design the expert system. It is shown that the developed expert system is capable of making an accurate prediction the number of iterations and time required for the convergence of a CFD solver.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Network, Computational Fluid Dynamics, Optimization

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