Search results for: Data analysis
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 13416

Search results for: Data analysis

7446 A Critics Study of Neural Networks Applied to ion-Exchange Process

Authors: John Kabuba, Antoine Mulaba-Bafubiandi, Kim Battle

Abstract:

This paper presents a critical study about the application of Neural Networks to ion-exchange process. Ionexchange is a complex non-linear process involving many factors influencing the ions uptake mechanisms from the pregnant solution. The following step includes the elution. Published data presents empirical isotherm equations with definite shortcomings resulting in unreliable predictions. Although Neural Network simulation technique encounters a number of disadvantages including its “black box", and a limited ability to explicitly identify possible causal relationships, it has the advantage to implicitly handle complex nonlinear relationships between dependent and independent variables. In the present paper, the Neural Network model based on the back-propagation algorithm Levenberg-Marquardt was developed using a three layer approach with a tangent sigmoid transfer function (tansig) at hidden layer with 11 neurons and linear transfer function (purelin) at out layer. The above mentioned approach has been used to test the effectiveness in simulating ion exchange processes. The modeling results showed that there is an excellent agreement between the experimental data and the predicted values of copper ions removed from aqueous solutions.

Keywords: Copper, ion-exchange process, neural networks, simulation

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7445 Variability in Near-Surface Ultraviolet Radiation and Its Dependence on Atmospheric Parameters

Authors: Yusuff Idowu Moshood, Sanni Mohammed

Abstract:

Natural radiations such as ultraviolet (UV) radiation sourced from sun are known to be the main causes of skin cancer, sunburn, eye damage, premature aging of skin and other skin related diseases. Its percentage of radiation reaching the earth populace and its impacts are not well known. Its variability in near-surface relating to its impacts on populace depends on some atmospheric parameters. Hence, this work was embarked on to determine the variability in near-surface UV radiation and its dependency on some atmospheric parameters at different time of the day in Offa, Nigeria. The variability was determined using the data obtained from meteorological garden, Science Laboratory Technology Department, Federal Polytechnic Offa, Nigeria. The data obtained were solar UV radiation, solar radiation, temperature, humidity and pressure at 30 minutes interval. Relationships were determined and correlations were derived using SPSS Pearson Correlation tool. The results showed a significant level of correlation with p-value of 0.01 and 0.05 levels. Thus, the results revealed some good relationships between the solar UV radiation and other atmospheric parameters with significance level less than p-value obtained. Inferentially, interdependent relationships were found to exist. Therefore, the nature of relationship obtained could be a yardstick for decision making in short term environmental planning on solar UV radiation depending of some atmospheric parameters within Offa locality.

Keywords: Correlation, inferential, radiation, yardstick.

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7444 Description of Reported Foodborne Diseases in Selected Communities within the Greater Accra Region-Ghana: Epidemiological Review of Surveillance Data

Authors: Benjamin Osei-Tutu, Henrietta Awewole Kolson

Abstract:

Background: Acute gastroenteritis is one of the frequently reported Out-Patient Department (OPD) cases. However, the causative pathogens of these cases are rarely identified at the OPD due to delay in laboratory results or failure to obtain specimens before antibiotics is administered. Method: A retrospective review of surveillance data from the Adentan Municipality, Accra, Ghana that were recorded in the National foodborne disease surveillance system of Ghana, was conducted with the main aim of describing the epidemiology and food practice of cases reported from the Adentan Municipality. The study involved a retrospective review of surveillance data kept on patients who visited health facilities that are involved in foodborne disease surveillance in Ghana, from January 2015 to December 2016. Results: A total of 375 cases were reviewed and these were classified as viral hepatitis (hepatitis A and E), cholera (Vibrio cholerae), dysentery (Shigella sp.), typhoid fever (Salmonella sp.) or gastroenteritis. Cases recorded were all suspected case and the average cases recorded per week was 3. Typhoid fever and dysentery were the two main clinically diagnosed foodborne illnesses. The highest number of cases were observed during the late dry season (Feb to April), which marks the end of the dry season and the beginning of the rainy season. Relatively high number of cases was also observed during the late wet seasons (Jul to Oct) when the rainfall is the heaviest. Home-made food and street vended food were the major sources of suspected etiological food, recording 49.01% and 34.87% of the cases respectively. Conclusion: Majority of cases recorded were classified as gastroenteritis due to the absence of laboratory confirmation. Few cases were classified as typhoid fever and dysentery based on clinical symptoms presented. Patients reporting with foodborne diseases were found to consume home meal and street vended foods as their predominant source of food.

Keywords: Accra, etiologic food, food poisoning, gastroenteritis, illness, surveillance.

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7443 Plastic Flow through Taper Dies: A Threedimensional Analysis

Authors: Laxmi Narayan Patra, Susanta Kumar Sahoo, Mithun KumarMurmu

Abstract:

The plastic flow of metal in the extrusion process is an important factor in controlling the mechanical properties of the extruded products. It is, however, difficult to predict the metal flow in three dimensional extrusions of sections due to the involvement of re-entrant corners. The present study is to find an upper bound solution for the extrusion of triangular sectioned through taper dies from round sectioned billet. A discontinuous kinematically admissible velocity field (KAVF) is proposed. From the proposed KAVF, the upper bound solution on non-dimensional extrusion pressure is determined with respect to the chosen process parameters. The theoretical results are compared with experimental results to check the validity of the proposed velocity field. An extrusion setup is designed and fabricated for the said purpose, and all extrusions are carried out using circular billets. Experiments are carried out with commercially available lead at room temperature.

Keywords: Extrusion, Kinematically admissibly velocity fieldSpatial Elementary Rigid Region (SERR), Upper Bound Analysis

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7442 Framework for Spare Inventory Management

Authors: Eman M. Wahba, Noha M. Galal, Khaled S. El-Kilany

Abstract:

Spare parts inventory management is one of the major areas of inventory research. Analysis of recent literature showed that an approach integrating spare parts classification, demand forecasting, and stock control policies is essential; however, adapting this integrated approach is limited. This work presents an integrated framework for spare part inventory management and an Excel based application developed for the implementation of the proposed framework. A multi-criteria analysis has been used for spare classification. Forecasting of spare parts- intermittent demand has been incorporated into the application using three different forecasting models; namely, normal distribution, exponential smoothing, and Croston method. The application is also capable of running with different inventory control policies. To illustrate the performance of the proposed framework and the developed application; the framework is applied to different items at a service organization. The results achieved are presented and possible areas for future work are highlighted.

Keywords: Demand forecasting, intermittent demand, inventory management, integrated approach, spare parts, spare part classification

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7441 Design and Development of an Efficient and Cost-Effective Microcontroller-Based Irrigation Control System to Enhance Food Security

Authors: Robert A. Sowah, Stephen K. Armoo, Koudjo M. Koumadi, Rockson Agyeman, Seth Y. Fiawoo

Abstract:

The development of the agricultural sector in Ghana has been reliant on the use of irrigation systems to ensure food security. However, the manual operation of these systems has not facilitated their maximum efficiency due to human limitations. This paper seeks to address this problem by designing and implementing an efficient, cost effective automated system which monitors and controls the water flow of irrigation through communication with an authorized operator via text messages. The automatic control component of the system is timer based with an Atmega32 microcontroller and a real time clock from the SM5100B cellular module. For monitoring purposes, the system sends periodic notification of the system on the performance of duty via SMS to the authorized person(s). Moreover, the GSM based Irrigation Monitoring and Control System saves time and labour and reduces cost of operating irrigation systems by saving electricity usage and conserving water. Field tests conducted have proven its operational efficiency and ease of assessment of farm irrigation equipment due to its costeffectiveness and data logging capabilities.

Keywords: Agriculture, control system, data logging, food security, irrigation system, microcontroller.

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7440 Vibration Control of Building Using Multiple Tuned Mass Dampers Considering Real Earthquake Time History

Authors: Rama Debbarma, Debanjan Das

Abstract:

The performance of multiple tuned mass dampers to mitigate the seismic vibration of structures considering real time history data is investigated in this paper. Three different real earthquake time history data like Kobe, Imperial Valley and Mammoth Lake are taken in the present study. The multiple tuned mass dampers (MTMD) are distributed at each storey. For comparative study, single tuned mass damper (STMD) is installed at top of the similar structure. This study is conducted for a fixed mass ratio (5%) and fixed damping ratio (5%) of structures. Numerical study is performed to evaluate the effectiveness of MTMDs and overall system performance. The displacement, acceleration, base shear and storey drift are obtained for both combined system (structure with MTMD and structure with STMD) for all earthquakes. The same responses are also obtained for structure without damper system. From obtained results, it is investigated that the MTMD configuration is more effective for controlling the seismic response of the primary system with compare to STMD configuration.

Keywords: Earthquake, multiple tuned mass dampers, single tuned mass damper, time history.

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7439 QoS Improvement Using Intelligent Algorithm under Dynamic Tropical Weather for Earth-Space Satellite Applications

Authors: Joseph S. Ojo, Vincent A. Akpan, Oladayo G. Ajileye, Olalekan L, Ojo

Abstract:

In this paper, the intelligent algorithm (IA) that is capable of adapting to dynamical tropical weather conditions is proposed based on fuzzy logic techniques. The IA effectively interacts with the quality of service (QoS) criteria irrespective of the dynamic tropical weather to achieve improvement in the satellite links. To achieve this, an adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) has been adopted. The algorithm is capable of interacting with the weather fluctuation to generate appropriate improvement to the satellite QoS for efficient services to the customers. 5-year (2012-2016) rainfall rate of one-minute integration time series data has been used to derive fading based on ITU-R P. 618-12 propagation models. The data are obtained from the measurement undertaken by the Communication Research Group (CRG), Physics Department, Federal University of Technology, Akure, Nigeria. The rain attenuation and signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) were derived for frequency between Ku and V-band and propagation angle with respect to different transmitting power. The simulated results show a substantial reduction in SNR especially for application in the area of digital video broadcast-second generation coding modulation satellite networks.

Keywords: Fuzzy logic, intelligent algorithm, Nigeria, QoS, satellite applications, tropical weather.

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7438 Comparison of Artificial Neural Network and Multivariate Regression Methods in Prediction of Soil Cation Exchange Capacity

Authors: Ali Keshavarzi, Fereydoon Sarmadian

Abstract:

Investigation of soil properties like Cation Exchange Capacity (CEC) plays important roles in study of environmental reaserches as the spatial and temporal variability of this property have been led to development of indirect methods in estimation of this soil characteristic. Pedotransfer functions (PTFs) provide an alternative by estimating soil parameters from more readily available soil data. 70 soil samples were collected from different horizons of 15 soil profiles located in the Ziaran region, Qazvin province, Iran. Then, multivariate regression and neural network model (feedforward back propagation network) were employed to develop a pedotransfer function for predicting soil parameter using easily measurable characteristics of clay and organic carbon. The performance of the multivariate regression and neural network model was evaluated using a test data set. In order to evaluate the models, root mean square error (RMSE) was used. The value of RMSE and R2 derived by ANN model for CEC were 0.47 and 0.94 respectively, while these parameters for multivariate regression model were 0.65 and 0.88 respectively. Results showed that artificial neural network with seven neurons in hidden layer had better performance in predicting soil cation exchange capacity than multivariate regression.

Keywords: Easily measurable characteristics, Feed-forwardback propagation, Pedotransfer functions, CEC.

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7437 Evaluation of the Analytic for Hemodynamic Instability as A Prediction Tool for Early Identification of Patient Deterioration

Authors: Bryce Benson, Sooin Lee, Ashwin Belle

Abstract:

Unrecognized or delayed identification of patient deterioration is a key cause of in-hospitals adverse events. Clinicians rely on vital signs monitoring to recognize patient deterioration. However, due to ever increasing nursing workloads and the manual effort required, vital signs tend to be measured and recorded intermittently, and inconsistently causing large gaps during patient monitoring. Additionally, during deterioration, the body’s autonomic nervous system activates compensatory mechanisms causing the vital signs to be lagging indicators of underlying hemodynamic decline. This study analyzes the predictive efficacy of the Analytic for Hemodynamic Instability (AHI) system, an automated tool that was designed to help clinicians in early identification of deteriorating patients. The lead time analysis in this retrospective observational study assesses how far in advance AHI predicted deterioration prior to the start of an episode of hemodynamic instability (HI) becoming evident through vital signs? Results indicate that of the 362 episodes of HI in this study, 308 episodes (85%) were correctly predicted by the AHI system with a median lead time of 57 minutes and an average of 4 hours (240.5 minutes). Of the 54 episodes not predicted, AHI detected 45 of them while the episode of HI was ongoing. Of the 9 undetected, 5 were not detected by AHI due to either missing or noisy input ECG data during the episode of HI. In total, AHI was able to either predict or detect 98.9% of all episodes of HI in this study. These results suggest that AHI could provide an additional ‘pair of eyes’ on patients, continuously filling the monitoring gaps and consequently giving the patient care team the ability to be far more proactive in patient monitoring and adverse event management.

Keywords: Clinical deterioration prediction, decision support system, early warning system, hemodynamic status, physiologic monitoring.

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7436 Cloning and Expression of D-Threonine Aldolase from Ensifer arboris NBRC100383

Authors: Sang-Ho Baik

Abstract:

D-erythro-cyclohexylserine (D chiral unnatural β-hydroxy amino acid expected for the synthesis of drug for AIDS treatment. To develop a continuous bioconversion system with whole cell biocatalyst of D-threonine aldolase (D genes for the D-erythro-CHS production, D-threonine aldolase gene was amplified from Ensifer arboris 100383 by direct PCR amplication using two degenerated oligonucleotide primers designed based on genomic sequence of Shinorhizobium meliloti Sequence analysis of the cloned DNA fragment revealed one open-reading frame of 1059 bp and 386 amino acids. This putative D-TA gene was cloned into NdeI and EcoRI (pEnsi His-tag sequence or BamHI (pEnsi-DTA[2]) sequence of the pET21(a) vector. The expression level of the cloned gene was extremely overexpressed by E. coli BL21(DE3) transformed with pEnsi-DTA[1] compared to E. coli BL21(DE3) transformed with pEnsi-DTA[2]. When the cells expressing the wild used for D-TA enzyme activity, 12 mM glycine was successfully detected in HPLC analysis. Moreover, the whole cells harbouring the recombinant D-TA was able to synthesize D-erythro of 0.6 mg/ml in a batch reaction.

Keywords: About four key words or phrases in alphabetical order, separated by commas.

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7435 Water and Soil Environment Pollution Reduction by Filter Strips

Authors: Roy R. Gu, Mahesh Sahu, Xianggui Zhao

Abstract:

Contour filter strips planted with perennial vegetation can be used to improve surface and ground water quality by reducing pollutant, such as NO3-N, and sediment outflow from cropland to a river or lake. Meanwhile, the filter strips of perennial grass with biofuel potentials also have economic benefits of producing ethanol. In this study, The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was applied to the Walnut Creek Watershed to examine the effectiveness of contour strips in reducing NO3-N outflows from crop fields to the river or lake. Required input data include watershed topography, slope, soil type, land-use, management practices in the watershed and climate parameters (precipitation, maximum/minimum air temperature, solar radiation, wind speed and relative humidity). Numerical experiments were conducted to identify potential subbasins in the watershed that have high water quality impact, and to examine the effects of strip size and location on NO3-N reduction in the subbasins under various meteorological conditions (dry, average and wet). Variable sizes of contour strips (10%, 20%, 30% and 50%, respectively, of a subbasin area) planted with perennial switchgrass were selected for simulating the effects of strip size and location on stream water quality. Simulation results showed that a filter strip having 10%-50% of the subbasin area could lead to 55%- 90% NO3-N reduction in the subbasin during an average rainfall year. Strips occupying 10-20% of the subbasin area were found to be more efficient in reducing NO3-N when placed along the contour than that when placed along the river. The results of this study can assist in cost-benefit analysis and decision-making in best water resources management practices for environmental protection.

Keywords: modeling, SWAT, water quality, NO3-N, watershed.

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7434 Revised PLWAP Tree with Non-frequent Items for Mining Sequential Pattern

Authors: R. Vishnu Priya, A. Vadivel

Abstract:

Sequential pattern mining is a challenging task in data mining area with large applications. One among those applications is mining patterns from weblog. Recent times, weblog is highly dynamic and some of them may become absolute over time. In addition, users may frequently change the threshold value during the data mining process until acquiring required output or mining interesting rules. Some of the recently proposed algorithms for mining weblog, build the tree with two scans and always consume large time and space. In this paper, we build Revised PLWAP with Non-frequent Items (RePLNI-tree) with single scan for all items. While mining sequential patterns, the links related to the nonfrequent items are not considered. Hence, it is not required to delete or maintain the information of nodes while revising the tree for mining updated transactions. The algorithm supports both incremental and interactive mining. It is not required to re-compute the patterns each time, while weblog is updated or minimum support changed. The performance of the proposed tree is better, even the size of incremental database is more than 50% of existing one. For evaluation purpose, we have used the benchmark weblog dataset and found that the performance of proposed tree is encouraging compared to some of the recently proposed approaches.

Keywords: Sequential pattern mining, weblog, frequent and non-frequent items, incremental and interactive mining.

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7433 Effects of Viscous Dissipation and Concentration Based Internal Heat Source on Convective Instability in a Porous Medium with Throughflow

Authors: N. Deepika, P. A. L. Narayana

Abstract:

Linear stability analysis of double diffusive convection in a horizontal porous layer saturated with fluid is examined by considering the effects of viscous dissipation, concentration based internal heat source and vertical throughflow. The basic steady state solution for Governing equations is derived. Linear stability analysis has been implemented numerically by using shooting and Runge-kutta methods. Critical thermal Rayleigh number Rac is obtained for various values of solutal Rayleigh number Sa, vertical Peclet number Pe, Gebhart number Ge, Lewis number Le and measure of concentration based internal heat source γ. It is observed that Ge has destabilizing effect for upward throughflow and stabilizing effect for downward throughflow. And γ has considerable destabilizing effect for upward throughflow and insignificant destabilizing effect for downward throughflow.

Keywords: Porous medium, concentration based internal heat source, vertical throughflow, viscous dissipation.

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7432 Stress Analysis of Hexagonal Element for Precast Concrete Pavements

Authors: J. Novak, A. Kohoutkova, V. Kristek, J. Vodicka, M. Sramek

Abstract:

While the use of cast-in-place concrete for an airfield and highway pavement overlay is very common, the application of precast concrete elements is very limited today. The main reasons consist of high production costs and complex structural behavior. Despite that, several precast concrete systems have been developed and tested with the aim to provide a system with rapid construction. The contribution deals with the reinforcement design of a hexagonal element developed for a proposed airfield pavement system. The sub-base course of the system is composed of compacted recycled concrete aggregates and fiber reinforced concrete with recycled aggregates place on top of it. The selected element belongs to a group of precast concrete elements which are being considered for the construction of a surface course. Both high costs of full-scale experiments and the need to investigate various elements force to simulate their behavior in a numerical analysis software by using finite element method instead of performing expensive experiments. The simulation of the selected element was conducted on a nonlinear model in order to obtain such results which could fully compensate results from experiments. The main objective was to design reinforcement of the precast concrete element subject to quasi-static loading from airplanes with respect to geometrical imperfections, manufacturing imperfections, tensile stress in reinforcement, compressive stress in concrete and crack width. The obtained findings demonstrate that the position and the presence of imperfection in a pavement highly affect the stress distribution in the precast concrete element. The precast concrete element should be heavily reinforced to fulfill all the demands. Using under-reinforced concrete elements would lead to the formation of wide cracks and cracks permanently open.

Keywords: Imperfection, numerical simulation, pavement, precast concrete element, reinforcement design, stress analysis.

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7431 Tension Stiffening Parameter in Composite Concrete Reinforced with Inoxydable Steel: Laboratory and Finite Element Analysis

Authors: S. Alih, A. Khelil

Abstract:

In the present work, behavior of inoxydable steel as reinforcement bar in composite concrete is being investigated. The bar-concrete adherence in reinforced concrete (RC) beam is studied and focus is made on the tension stiffening parameter. This study highlighted an approach to observe this interaction behavior in bending test instead of direct tension as per reported in many references. The approach resembles actual loading condition of the structural RC beam. The tension stiffening properties are then applied to numerical finite element analysis (FEA) to verify their correlation with laboratory results. Comparison with laboratory shows a good correlation between the two. The experimental settings is able to determine tension stiffening parameters in RC beam and the modeling strategies made in ABAQUS can closely represent the actual condition. Tension stiffening model used can represent the interaction properties between inoxydable steel and concrete.

Keywords: Inoxydable steel, Finite element modeling, Reinforced concrete beam, Tension-stiffening.

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7430 Food Safety Management: Concerns from EU Tourists in Thailand

Authors: Kevin Wongleedee

Abstract:

Culinary culture differences can cause health problems for international tourists in Thailand. This paper drew upon data collected from an international tourist survey conducted in Bangkok, Thailand during summer of 2012. Summer is the period that a variety food safety issues and incidents are often publicized in Thailand. The survey targeted European Union tourists- concerns toward a variety of food safety issues that they encountered during their trip in Thailand. A total of 400 respondents were elicited as data input for t-test, and one way ANOVA test. The findings revealed an astonishing result that up to 46.5 percent of respondents were sick at least one time or more in Thailand. However, the majority of respondents trusted that the Thai hotel and Thai restaurants would ensure food safety, but they did not trust street vendors to ensure food safety. The level of food safety concern can be ranked from most concern to least concern by using the value of mean scores as follows: 1) artificial coloring, 2) use of preservatives, 3) antibiotics, 4) growth hormones, 5) chemical residues, and 6) bacterial contamination. The overall mean score for level of concerns was 3.493 with standard deviation of 1.677 which did not indicate a very high level of concern. In addition, the result for t-test and one way ANOVA test revealed that there was not much effect from the demographic differences to level of food safety concerns.

Keywords: Concerns, European Union Tourists, Food Safety Management.

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7429 The Effect of Eight Weeks of Aerobic Training on Indices of Cardio-Respiratory and Exercise Tolerance in Overweight Women with Chronic Asthma

Authors: Somayeh Negahdari, Mohsen Ghanbarzadeh, Masoud Nikbakht, Heshmatolah Tavakol

Abstract:

Asthma, obesity and overweight are the main factors causing change within the heart and respiratory airways. Asthma symptoms are normally observed during exercising. Epidemiological studies have indicated asthma symptoms occurring due to certain lifestyle habits; for example, a sedentary lifestyle. In this study, eight weeks of aerobic exercises resulted in a positive effect overall in overweight women experiencing mild chronic asthma. The quasi-experimental applied research has been done based on experimental and control groups. The experimental group (seven patients) and control group (n = 7) were graded before and after the test. According to the Borg dyspnea and fatigue Perception Index, the training intensity has determined. Participants in the study performed a sub-maximal aerobic activity schedule (45% to 80% of maximum heart rate) for two months, while the control group (n = 7) stayed away from aerobic exercise. Data evaluation and analysis of covariance compared both the pre-test and post-test with paired t-test at significance level of P≤ 0.05. After eight weeks of exercise, the results of the experimental group show a significant decrease in resting heart rate, systolic blood pressure, minute ventilation, while a significant increase in maximal oxygen uptake and tolerance activity (P ≤ 0.05). In the control group, there was no significant difference in these parameters ((P ≤ 0.05). The results indicate the aerobic activity can strengthen the respiratory muscles, while other physiological factors could result in breathing and heart recovery. Aerobic activity also resulted in favorable changes in cardiovascular parameters, and exercise tolerance of overweight women with chronic asthma.

Keywords: Asthma, respiratory cardiac index, exercise tolerance, aerobic, overweight.

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7428 Machine Learning Techniques in Bank Credit Analysis

Authors: Fernanda M. Assef, Maria Teresinha A. Steiner

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to compare and discuss better classifier algorithm options for credit risk assessment by applying different Machine Learning techniques. Using records from a Brazilian financial institution, this study uses a database of 5,432 companies that are clients of the bank, where 2,600 clients are classified as non-defaulters, 1,551 are classified as defaulters and 1,281 are temporarily defaulters, meaning that the clients are overdue on their payments for up 180 days. For each case, a total of 15 attributes was considered for a one-against-all assessment using four different techniques: Artificial Neural Networks Multilayer Perceptron (ANN-MLP), Artificial Neural Networks Radial Basis Functions (ANN-RBF), Logistic Regression (LR) and finally Support Vector Machines (SVM). For each method, different parameters were analyzed in order to obtain different results when the best of each technique was compared. Initially the data were coded in thermometer code (numerical attributes) or dummy coding (for nominal attributes). The methods were then evaluated for each parameter and the best result of each technique was compared in terms of accuracy, false positives, false negatives, true positives and true negatives. This comparison showed that the best method, in terms of accuracy, was ANN-RBF (79.20% for non-defaulter classification, 97.74% for defaulters and 75.37% for the temporarily defaulter classification). However, the best accuracy does not always represent the best technique. For instance, on the classification of temporarily defaulters, this technique, in terms of false positives, was surpassed by SVM, which had the lowest rate (0.07%) of false positive classifications. All these intrinsic details are discussed considering the results found, and an overview of what was presented is shown in the conclusion of this study.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks, ANNs, classifier algorithms, credit risk assessment, logistic regression, machine learning, support vector machines.

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7427 Development of Prediction Models of Day-Ahead Hourly Building Electricity Consumption and Peak Power Demand Using the Machine Learning Method

Authors: Dalin Si, Azizan Aziz, Bertrand Lasternas

Abstract:

To encourage building owners to purchase electricity at the wholesale market and reduce building peak demand, this study aims to develop models that predict day-ahead hourly electricity consumption and demand using artificial neural network (ANN) and support vector machine (SVM). All prediction models are built in Python, with tool Scikit-learn and Pybrain. The input data for both consumption and demand prediction are time stamp, outdoor dry bulb temperature, relative humidity, air handling unit (AHU), supply air temperature and solar radiation. Solar radiation, which is unavailable a day-ahead, is predicted at first, and then this estimation is used as an input to predict consumption and demand. Models to predict consumption and demand are trained in both SVM and ANN, and depend on cooling or heating, weekdays or weekends. The results show that ANN is the better option for both consumption and demand prediction. It can achieve 15.50% to 20.03% coefficient of variance of root mean square error (CVRMSE) for consumption prediction and 22.89% to 32.42% CVRMSE for demand prediction, respectively. To conclude, the presented models have potential to help building owners to purchase electricity at the wholesale market, but they are not robust when used in demand response control.

Keywords: Building energy prediction, data mining, demand response, electricity market.

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7426 Wind Tunnel for Aerodynamic Development Testing

Authors: E. T. L. Cöuras Ford, V. A. C. Vale, J. U. L. Mendes, F. A. Ribeiro

Abstract:

The study of the aerodynamics related to the improvement in the acting of airplanes and automobiles with the objective of being reduced the effect of the attrition of the air on structures, providing larger speeds and smaller consumption of fuel. The application of the knowledge of the aerodynamics not more limits to the aeronautical and automobile industries. Therefore, this research aims to design and construction of a wind tunnel to perform aerodynamic analysis in bodies of cars, seeking greater efficiency. Therefore, this research aims to design and construction of a wind tunnel to perform aerodynamic analysis in bodies of cars, seeking greater efficiency. For this, a methodology for wind tunnel type selection is designed to be built, taking into account the various existing configurations in which chose to build an open circuit tunnel, due to the lower complexity of construction and installation; operational simplicity and low cost. The guidelines for the project were teaching: the layer that limits study and analyze specimens with different geometries. For the variation of pressure in the test, section of a switched gauge used a pitot tube. Thus, it was possible to obtain quantitative and qualitative results, which proved to be satisfactory.

Keywords: Wind tunnel, Aerodynamics, Air.

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7425 Analysis of a Mathematical Model for Dengue Disease in Pregnant Cases

Authors: Rujira Kongnuy, Puntani Pongsumpun, I-Ming Tang

Abstract:

Dengue fever is an important human arboviral disease. Outbreaks are now reported quite often from many parts of the world. The number of cases involving pregnant women and infant cases are increasing every year. The illness is often severe and complications may occur. Deaths often occur because of the difficulties in early diagnosis and in the improper management of the diseases. Dengue antibodies from pregnant women are passed on to infants and this protects the infants from dengue infections. Antibodies from the mother are transferred to the fetus when it is still in the womb. In this study, we formulate a mathematical model to describe the transmission of this disease in pregnant women. The model is formulated by dividing the human population into pregnant women and non-pregnant human (men and non-pregnant women). Each class is subdivided into susceptible (S), infectious (I) and recovered (R) subclasses. We apply standard dynamical analysis to our model. Conditions for the local stability of the equilibrium points are given. The numerical simulations are shown. The bifurcation diagrams of our model are discussed. The control of this disease in pregnant women is discussed in terms of the threshold conditions.

Keywords: Dengue disease, local stability, mathematical model, pregnancy.

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7424 Model Parameters Estimating on Lyman–Kutcher–Burman Normal Tissue Complication Probability for Xerostomia on Head and Neck Cancer

Authors: Tsair-Fwu Lee , Hui-Min Ting , Pei-Ju Chao, Jing-Chuan Jiang, Min-Yuan Chao, Wen-Cheng Chen, Long-Chang Chen, Jia-Ming Wu

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is to derive parameters estimating for the Lyman–Kutcher–Burman (LKB) normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) model using analysis of scintigraphy assessments and quality of life (QoL) measurement questionnaires for the parotid gland (xerostomia). In total, 31 patients with head-and-neck (HN) cancer were enrolled. Salivary excretion factor (SEF) and EORTC QLQ-H&N35 questionnaires datasets are used for the NTCP modeling to describe the incidence of grade 4 xerostomia. Assuming that n= 1, NTCP fitted parameters are given as TD50= 43.6 Gy, m= 0.18 in SEF analysis, and as TD50= 44.1 Gy, m= 0.11 in QoL measurements, respectively. SEF and QoL datasets can validate the Quantitative Analyses of Normal Tissue Effects in the Clinic (QUANTEC) guidelines well, resulting in NPV-s of 100% for the both datasets and suggests that the QUANTEC 25/20Gy gland-spared guidelines are suitable for clinical used for the HN cohort to effectively avoid xerostomia.

Keywords: HN, NTCP, SEF, QoL, QUANTEC

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7423 Exploration of Hydrocarbon Unconventional Accumulations in the Argillaceous Formation of the Autochthonous Miocene Succession in the Carpathian Foredeep

Authors: Wojciech Górecki, Anna Sowiżdżał, Grzegorz Machowski, Tomasz Maćkowski, Bartosz Papiernik, Michał Stefaniuk

Abstract:

The article shows results of the project which aims at evaluating possibilities of effective development and exploitation of natural gas from argillaceous series of the Autochthonous Miocene in the Carpathian Foredeep. To achieve the objective, the research team develop a world-trend based but unique methodology of processing and interpretation, adjusted to data, local variations and petroleum characteristics of the area. In order to determine the zones in which maximum volumes of hydrocarbons might have been generated and preserved as shale gas reservoirs, as well as to identify the most preferable well sites where largest gas accumulations are anticipated a number of task were accomplished. Evaluation of petrophysical properties and hydrocarbon saturation of the Miocene complex is based on laboratory measurements as well as interpretation of well-logs and archival data. The studies apply mercury porosimetry (MICP), micro CT and nuclear magnetic resonance imaging (using the Rock Core Analyzer). For prospective location (e.g. central part of Carpathian Foredeep – Brzesko-Wojnicz area) reprocessing and reinterpretation of detailed seismic survey data with the use of integrated geophysical investigations has been made. Construction of quantitative, structural and parametric models for selected areas of the Carpathian Foredeep is performed on the basis of integrated, detailed 3D computer models. Modeling are carried on with the Schlumberger’s Petrel software. Finally, prospective zones are spatially contoured in a form of regional 3D grid, which will be framework for generation modelling and comprehensive parametric mapping, allowing for spatial identification of the most prospective zones of unconventional gas accumulation in the Carpathian Foredeep. Preliminary results of research works indicate a potentially prospective area for occurrence of unconventional gas accumulations in the Polish part of Carpathian Foredeep.

Keywords: Autochthonous Miocene, Carpathian Foredeep, Poland, shale gas.

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7422 Modified Scaling-Free CORDIC Based Pipelined Parallel MDC FFT and IFFT Architecture for Radix 2^2 Algorithm

Authors: C. Paramasivam, K. B. Jayanthi

Abstract:

An innovative approach to develop modified scaling free CORDIC based two parallel pipelined Multipath Delay Commutator (MDC) FFT and IFFT architectures for radix 22 FFT algorithm is presented. Multipliers and adders are the most important data paths in FFT and IFFT architectures. Multipliers occupy high area and consume more power. In order to optimize the area and power overhead, modified scaling-free CORDIC based complex multiplier is utilized in the proposed design. In general twiddle factor values are stored in RAM block. In the proposed work, modified scaling-free CORDIC based twiddle factor generator unit is used to generate the twiddle factor and efficient switching units are used. In addition to this, four point FFT operations are performed without complex multiplication which helps to reduce area and power in the last two stages of the pipelined architectures. The design proposed in this paper is based on multipath delay commutator method. The proposed design can be extended to any radix 2n based FFT/IFFT algorithm to improve the throughput. The work is synthesized using Synopsys design Compiler using TSMC 90-nm library. The proposed method proves to be better compared to the reference design in terms of area, throughput and power consumption. The comparative analysis of the proposed design with Xilinx FPGA platform is also discussed in the paper.

Keywords: Coordinate Rotational Digital Computer(CORDIC), Complex multiplier, Fast Fourier transform (FFT), Inverse fast Fourier transform (IFFT), Multipath delay Commutator (MDC), modified scaling free CORDIC, complex multiplier, pipelining, parallel processing, radix-2^2.

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7421 Statistical (Radio) Path Loss Modelling: For RF Propagations within localized Indoor and Outdoor Environments of the Academic Building of INTI University College (Laureate International Universities)

Authors: Emmanuel O.O. Ojakominor, Tian F. Lai

Abstract:

A handful of propagation textbooks that discuss radio frequency (RF) propagation models merely list out the models and perhaps discuss them rather briefly; this may well be frustrating for the potential first time modeller who's got no idea on how these models could have been derived. This paper fundamentally provides an overture in modelling the radio channel. Explicitly, for the modelling practice discussed here, signal strength field measurements had to be conducted beforehand (this was done at 469 MHz); to be precise, this paper primarily concerns empirically/statistically modelling the radio channel, and thus provides results obtained from empirically modelling the environments in question. This paper, on the whole, proposes three propagation models, corresponding to three experimented environments. Perceptibly, the models have been derived by way of making the most use of statistical measures. Generally speaking, the first two models were derived via simple linear regression analysis, whereas the third have been originated using multiple regression analysis (with five various predictors). Additionally, as implied by the title of this paper, both indoor and outdoor environments have been experimented; however, (somewhat) two of the environments are neither entirely indoor nor entirely outdoor. The other environment, however, is completely indoor.

Keywords: RF propagation, radio channel modelling, statistical methods.

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7420 An Analysis of Dynamic Economic Dispatch Using Search Space Reduction Based Gravitational Search Algorithm

Authors: K. C. Meher, R. K. Swain, C. K. Chanda

Abstract:

This paper presents the performance analysis of dynamic search space reduction (DSR) based gravitational search algorithm (GSA) to solve dynamic economic dispatch of thermal generating units with valve point effects. Dynamic economic dispatch basically dictates the best setting of generator units with anticipated load demand over a definite period of time. In this paper, the presented technique is considered that deals an inequality constraints treatment mechanism known as DSR strategy to accelerate the optimization process. The presented method is demonstrated through five-unit test systems to verify its effectiveness and robustness. The simulation results are compared with other existing evolutionary methods reported in the literature. It is intuited from the comparison that the fuel cost and other performances of the presented approach yield fruitful results with marginal value of simulation time.

Keywords: Dynamic economic dispatch, dynamic search space reduction strategy, gravitational search algorithm, ramp rate limits, valve-point effects.

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7419 Soil/Phytofisionomy Relationship in Southeast of Chapada Diamantina, Bahia, Brazil

Authors: Marcelo Araujo da Nóbrega, Ariel Moura Vilas Boas

Abstract:

This study aims to characterize the physicochemical aspects of the soils of southeastern Chapada Diamantina - Bahia related to the phytophysiognomies of this area, rupestrian field, small savanna (savanna fields), small dense savanna (savanna fields), savanna (Cerrado), dry thorny forest (Caatinga), dry thorny forest/savanna, scrub (Carrasco - ecotone), forest island (seasonal semi-deciduous forest - Capão) and seasonal semi-deciduous forest. To achieve the research objective, soil samples were collected in each plant formation and analyzed in the soil laboratory of ESALQ - USP in order to identify soil fertility through the determination of pH, organic matter, phosphorus, potassium, calcium, magnesium, potential acidity, sum of bases, cation exchange capacity and base saturation. The composition of soil particles was also checked; that is, the texture, step made in the terrestrial ecosystems laboratory of the Department of Ecology of USP and in the soil laboratory of ESALQ. Another important factor also studied was to show the variations in the vegetation cover in the region as a function of soil moisture in the different existing physiographic environments. Another study carried out was a comparison between the average soil moisture data with precipitation data from three locations with very different phytophysiognomies. The soils found in this part of Bahia can be classified into 5 classes, with a predominance of oxisols. All of these classes have a great diversity of physical and chemical properties, as can be seen in photographs and in particle size and fertility analyzes. The deepest soils are located in the Central Pediplano of Chapada Diamantina where the dirty field, the clean field, the executioner and the semideciduous seasonal forest (Capão) are located, and the shallower soils were found in the rupestrian field, dry thorny forest, and savanna fields, the latter located on a hillside. As for the variations in water in the region's soil, the data indicate that there were large spatial variations in humidity in both the rainy and dry periods.

Keywords: Bahia, Chapada diamantina, phytophysiognomies, soils.

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7418 A Developed Power and Free Conveyor for Light Loads in Intra-Logistics

Authors: Batin Latif Aylak, Bernd Noche

Abstract:

Nowadays there are lots of applications of power and free conveyors in logistics. They are the most frequently used conveyor systems worldwide. Overhead conveyor technologies like power and free systems are used in the most intra-logistics applications in trade and industry. The automotive, food, beverage and textile industry as well as aeronautic catering or engineering are among the applications. Power and free systems employ different manufacturing intervals in manufacturing as well as in production as temporary store and buffer. Depending on the application area, power and free conveyors are equipped with target controls enabling complex distribution-and sorting tasks. This article introduces a new power and free conveyor design in intra-logistics and explains its components. According to the explanation of the components, a model is created by means of their technical characteristics. Through the CAD software, the model is visualized. After that, the static analysis is evaluated. This analysis helps the calculation of the mandatory state of structures under force action. This powerful model helps companies achieve lower development costs as well as quicker market maturity.

Keywords: Intra-logistics, material flow, power and free conveyor.

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7417 Improvement of Milk Production with Half Day Milking; a Case Study of Communal Goat Housing in Sukorejo, Yogyakarta, Indonesia

Authors: Yuni Suranindyah, Kustantinah, E. R. Ôêàrskov

Abstract:

The case study was conducted to show the effect of  milking method in goat called half day milking on the milk production and the growth of kids. Data were collected by  interviewing farmers and investigating goat production in the  communal goat housing from June 2008 to May 2009. The interview  was conducted to collect data about goat management. The  observations were conducted on 10 goats, which were selected based  on the uniformity of age, number of kid born/goat and the milking method in practice. The samples were divided into two groups; those  were full 3 months nursing and half day milked goats (in this group the kids were separated from goat during the previous night milking  and then the kids were allowed to suck the goat during the day). The result showed that the communal goat housing had 138 goats and 25% of the farmers milked the goat. The implementation of half day milking increased the milk production significantly (P<0.05) and it did not affect the kids’ growth. It was concluded that half day milking was beneficial to increase milk production. In the communal goat housing was possible to implement the result of this innovation to all members of the farmer group as a method in increasing goat milk production.

Keywords: Communal goat housing, milk production.

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