Search results for: estimation of electricity

Authors: V. Churkin, M. Lopatin

Abstract:

The purpose of the paper is to estimate the US small wind turbines market potential and forecast the small wind turbines sales in the US. The forecasting method is based on the application of the Bass model and the generalized Bass model of innovations diffusion under replacement purchases. In the work an exponential distribution is used for modeling of replacement purchases. Only one parameter of such distribution is determined by average lifetime of small wind turbines. The identification of the model parameters is based on nonlinear regression analysis on the basis of the annual sales statistics which has been published by the American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) since 2001 up to 2012. The estimation of the US average market potential of small wind turbines (for adoption purchases) without account of price changes is 57080 (confidence interval from 49294 to 64866 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 15 years, and 62402 (confidence interval from 54154 to 70648 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 20 years. In the first case the explained variance is 90,7%, while in the second - 91,8%. The effect of the wind turbines price changes on their sales was estimated using generalized Bass model. This required a price forecast. To do this, the polynomial regression function, which is based on the Berkeley Lab statistics, was used. The estimation of the US average market potential of small wind turbines (for adoption purchases) in that case is 42542 (confidence interval from 32863 to 52221 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 15 years, and 47426 (confidence interval from 36092 to 58760 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 20 years. In the first case the explained variance is 95,3%, while in the second – 95,3%.

Keywords: Bass model, generalized Bass model, replacement purchases, sales forecasting of innovations, statistics of sales of small wind turbines in the United States.

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Authors: Zhongmin Wang, Wudong Fan, Hengshan Zhang, Yimin Zhou

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In data-driven prognostic methods, the prediction accuracy of the estimation for remaining useful life of bearings mainly depends on the performance of health indicators, which are usually fused some statistical features extracted from vibrating signals. However, the existing health indicators have the following two drawbacks: (1) The differnet ranges of the statistical features have the different contributions to construct the health indicators, the expert knowledge is required to extract the features. (2) When convolutional neural networks are utilized to tackle time-frequency features of signals, the time-series of signals are not considered. To overcome these drawbacks, in this study, the method combining convolutional neural network with gated recurrent unit is proposed to extract the time-frequency image features. The extracted features are utilized to construct health indicator and predict remaining useful life of bearings. First, original signals are converted into time-frequency images by using continuous wavelet transform so as to form the original feature sets. Second, with convolutional and pooling layers of convolutional neural networks, the most sensitive features of time-frequency images are selected from the original feature sets. Finally, these selected features are fed into the gated recurrent unit to construct the health indicator. The results state that the proposed method shows the enhance performance than the related studies which have used the same bearing dataset provided by PRONOSTIA.

Keywords: Continuous wavelet transform, convolution neural network, gated recurrent unit, health indicators, remaining useful life.

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Authors: Hidetoshi Nonaka, Masahito Kurihara

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In this paper, an authentication system using keystroke dynamics is presented. We introduced pressure sensing for the improvement of the accuracy of measurement and durability against intrusion using key-logger, and so on, however additional instrument is needed. As the result, it has been found that the pressure sensing is also effective for estimation of real moment of keystroke.

Keywords: Biometric authentication, Keystroke dynamics, Pressure sensing, Time-frequency analysis.

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Authors: Solomon Neway Jida, Jean-Francois Hetet, Pascal Chesse

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Vehicular emission is the key source of air pollution in the urban environment. This includes both fine particles (PM_2.5) and coarse particulate matters (PM₁₀). However, particulate matter emissions from road traffic comprise emissions from exhaust tailpipe and emissions due to wear and tear of the vehicle part such as brake, tire and clutch and re-suspension of dust (non-exhaust emission). This study estimates the share of the two sources of pollutant particle emissions from on-roadside vehicles in the Addis Ababa municipality, Ethiopia. To calculate its share, two methods were applied; the exhaust-tailpipe emissions were calculated using the Europeans emission inventory Tier II method and Tier I for the non-exhaust emissions (like vehicle tire wear, brake, and road surface wear). The results show that of the total traffic-related particulate emissions in the city, 63% emitted from vehicle exhaust and the remaining 37% from non-exhaust sources. The annual roads transport exhaust emission shares around 2394 tons of particles from all vehicle categories. However, from the total yearly non-exhaust particulate matter emissions’ contribution, tire and brake wear shared around 65% and 35% emanated by road-surface wear. Furthermore, vehicle tire and brake wear were responsible for annual 584.8 tons of coarse particles (PM₁₀) and 314.4 tons of fine particle matter (PM_2.5) emissions in the city whereas surface wear emissions were responsible for around 313.7 tons of PM₁₀ and 169.9 tons of PM_2.5 pollutant emissions in the city. This suggests that non-exhaust sources might be as significant as exhaust sources and have a considerable contribution to the impact on air quality.

Keywords: Addis Ababa, automotive emission, emission estimation, particulate matters.

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Authors: A. Aissani, H. Benaoudia

Abstract:

Stochastic comparison has been an important direction of research in various area. This can be done by the use of the notion of stochastic ordering which gives qualitatitive rather than purely quantitative estimation of the system under study. In this paper we present applications of comparison based uncertainty related to entropy in Reliability analysis, for example to design better systems. These results can be used as a priori information in simulation studies.

Keywords: Uncertainty, Stochastic comparison, Reliability, serie's system, imperfect repair.

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Authors: Pavel Zikmund, Robert Popela

Abstract:

Extreme formation is a theoretical concept of selfsustain flight when a big airliner is followed by a small UAV glider flying in the airliner wake vortex. The paper presents results of a climb analysis with the goal to lift the gliding UAV to airliners cruise altitude. Wake vortex models, the UAV drag polar and basic parameters and airliner’s climb profile are introduced at first. Afterwards, flight performance of the UAV in a wake vortex is evaluated by analytical methods. Time history of optimal distance between an airliner and the UAV during a climb is determined. The results are encouraging. Therefore available UAV drag margin for electricity generation is figured out for different vortex models.

Keywords: Flight in formation, self-sustained flight, UAV, wake vortex.

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Authors: Ginalber L. O. Serra

Abstract:

This work proposes a recursive weighted ELS algorithm for system identification by applying numerically robust orthogonal Householder transformations. The properties of the proposed algorithm show it obtains acceptable results in a noisy environment: fast convergence and asymptotically unbiased estimates. Comparative analysis with others robust methods well known from literature are also presented.

Keywords: Stochastic Systems, Robust Identification, Parameter Estimation, Systems Identification.

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Authors: H. Zarei, M. H. Fazel Zarandi, M. Karbasian

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A Decision Support System/Expert System for stock portfolio selection presented where at first step, both technical and fundamental data used to estimate technical and fundamental return and risk (1st phase); Then, the estimated values are aggregated with the investor preferences (2nd phase) to produce convenient stock portfolio. In the 1st phase, there are two expert systems, each of which is responsible for technical or fundamental estimation. In the technical expert system, for each stock, twenty seven candidates are identified and with using rough sets-based clustering method (RC) the effective variables have been selected. Next, for each stock two fuzzy rulebases are developed with fuzzy C-Mean method and Takai-Sugeno- Kang (TSK) approach; one for return estimation and the other for risk. Thereafter, the parameters of the rule-bases are tuned with backpropagation method. In parallel, for fundamental expert systems, fuzzy rule-bases have been identified in the form of “IF-THEN" rules through brainstorming with the stock market experts and the input data have been derived from financial statements; as a result two fuzzy rule-bases have been generated for all the stocks, one for return and the other for risk. In the 2nd phase, user preferences represented by four criteria and are obtained by questionnaire. Using an expert system, four estimated values of return and risk have been aggregated with the respective values of user preference. At last, a fuzzy rule base having four rules, treats these values and produce a ranking score for each stock which will lead to a satisfactory portfolio for the user. The stocks of six manufacturing companies and the period of 2003-2006 selected for data gathering.

Keywords: Stock Portfolio Selection, Fuzzy Rule-Base ExpertSystems, Financial Decision Support Systems, Technical Analysis, Fundamental Analysis.

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Authors: R. A. Karim, N. M. A. Ghani, N. N. S. Nasari

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Wastages such as grated coconut meat, spent tea and used sugarcane had contributed negative impacts to the environment. Vermicomposting method is fully utilized to manage the wastes towards a more sustainable approach. The worms that are used in the vermicomposting are Eisenia foetida and Eudrillus euginae. This research shows that the vermicompost of wastages has voltage of electrical energy and is able to light up the Light-Emitting Diode (LED) device. Based on the experiment, the use of replicated and double compartments of the component will produce double of voltage. Hence, for conclusion, this harmless and low cost technology of vermicompost can act as a dry cell in order to reduce the usage of hazardous chemicals that can contaminate the environment.

Keywords: Wastages, vermiconpose, worm, voltage, organic cell.

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Authors: Andrey V. Timofeev

Abstract:

A method is proposed for stable detection of seismoacoustic sources in C-OTDR systems that guarantee given upper bounds for probabilities of type I and type II errors. Properties of the proposed method are rigorously proved. The results of practical applications of the proposed method in a real C-OTDRsystem are presented.

Keywords: Guaranteed detection, C-OTDR systems, change point, interval estimation.

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Authors: Huan-Chieh Chiu, Hung-Shuo Wu, Chien-Hao Wang, Yu-Cheng Yang, Ching-Ya Tseng, Joe-Air Jiang

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Power failure resulting from tower collapse due to violent seismic events might bring enormous and inestimable losses. The Chi-Chi earthquake, for example, strongly struck Taiwan and caused huge damage to the power system on September 21, 1999. Nearly 10% of extra high voltage (EHV) transmission towers were damaged in the earthquake. Therefore, seismic hazards of EHV transmission towers should be monitored and evaluated. The ultimate goal of this study is to establish a damage level assessment model for EHV transmission towers. The data of earthquakes provided by Taiwan Central Weather Bureau serve as a reference and then lay the foundation for earthquake simulations and analyses afterward. Some parameters related to the damage level of each point of an EHV tower are simulated and analyzed by the data from monitoring stations once an earthquake occurs. Through the Fourier transform, the seismic wave is then analyzed and transformed into different wave frequencies, and the data would be shown through a response spectrum. With this method, the seismic frequency which damages EHV towers the most is clearly identified. An estimation model is built to determine the damage level caused by a future seismic event. Finally, instead of relying on visual observation done by inspectors, the proposed model can provide a power company with the damage information of a transmission tower. Using the model, manpower required by visual observation can be reduced, and the accuracy of the damage level estimation can be substantially improved. Such a model is greatly useful for health and construction monitoring because of the advantages of long-term evaluation of structural characteristics and long-term damage detection.

Keywords: Smart grid, EHV transmission tower, response spectrum, damage level monitoring.

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Authors: Nizar Sakli, Chayma Bahar, Chokri Baccouch, Hedi Sakli

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If connected objects multiply, they are becoming a challenge in more than one way. In particular by their consumption and their supply of electricity. A large part of the new generations of connected objects will only be able to develop if it is possible to make them entirely autonomous in terms of energy. Some manufacturers are therefore developing products capable of recovering energy from their environment. Vital solutions in certain contexts, such as the medical industry. Energy recovery from the environment is a reliable solution to solve the problem of powering wireless connected objects. This paper presents and study a optically transparent solar patch antenna in frequency band of 2.4 GHz for connected objects in the future standard 5G for energy harvesting and RF transmission.

Keywords: 5G, IoT, wireless communications, antenna, solar cell.

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Authors: Yen San Yong, Hock Woon Hon

Abstract:

An algorithm for estimating the disparity of objects of interest is proposed. This algorithm uses image shifting and overlapping area to estimate the disparity value; thereby depth of the objects of interest can be obtained. The algorithm is able to perform at different levels of accuracy. However, as the accuracy increases the processing speed decreases. The algorithm is tested with static stereo images and sequence of stereo images. The experimental results are presented in this paper.

Keywords: stereo vision, binocular parallax

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Authors: A. Alharbi, R. Boukhanouf, T. Habeebullah, H. Ibrahim

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This paper presents a detailed description of evaporative cooling systems used for space cooling in Mina Valley, Saudi Arabia. The thermal performance and environmental impact of the evaporative coolers were evaluated. It was found that the evaporative cooling systems used for space cooling in pilgrims’ accommodations and in the train stations could reduce energy consumption by as much as 75% and cut carbon dioxide emission by 78% compared to traditional vapour compression systems.

Keywords: Evaporative cooling, vapour compression, electricity consumption and CO2 emission.

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Authors: A. Bozkurt, C. Kocatepe, R. Yumurtaci, İ. C. Tastan, G. Tulun

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Efficient use of energy, the increase in demand of energy and also with the reduction of natural energy sources, has improved its importance in recent years. Most of the losses in the system from electricity produced until the point of consumption is mostly composed by the energy distribution system. In this study, analysis of the resulting loss in power distribution transformer and distribution power cable is realized which are most of the losses in the distribution system. Transformer losses in the real distribution system are analyzed by CYME Power Engineering Software program. These losses are disclosed for different voltage levels and different loading conditions.

Keywords: Distribution system, distribution transformer, power cable, technical losses.

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Authors: Abdulrahman Alsuhaibani, Martin Macken

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FACTS devices have great influence on the grid stability and power markets price. Recently, there is intent to integrate a large scale of renewable energy sources to the power system which in turn pushes the power system to operate closer to the security limits. This paper discusses the power system stability and reliability improvement that could be achieved by using FACTS. There is a comparison between FACTS devices to evaluate their performance for different functions. A case study has also been made about its effect on reducing generation cost and minimizing transmission losses which have good impact on efficient and economic operation of electricity markets.

Keywords: FACTS, grid stability, spot price, Optimal Power Flow.

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Authors: Yanling Li, Linying Ji, Zita Oravecz, Timothy R. Brick, Michael D. Hunter, Sy-Miin Chow

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Assessing several individuals intensively over time yields intensive longitudinal data (ILD). Even though ILD provide rich information, they also bring other data analytic challenges. One of these is the increased occurrence of missingness with increased study length, possibly under non-ignorable missingness scenarios. Multiple imputation (MI) handles missing data by creating several imputed data sets, and pooling the estimation results across imputed data sets to yield final estimates for inferential purposes. In this article, we introduce dynr.mi(), a function in the R package, Dynamic Modeling in R (dynr). The package dynr provides a suite of fast and accessible functions for estimating and visualizing the results from fitting linear and nonlinear dynamic systems models in discrete as well as continuous time. By integrating the estimation functions in dynr and the MI procedures available from the R package, Multivariate Imputation by Chained Equations (MICE), the dynr.mi() routine is designed to handle possibly non-ignorable missingness in the dependent variables and/or covariates in a user-specified dynamic systems model via MI, with convergence diagnostic check. We utilized dynr.mi() to examine, in the context of a vector autoregressive model, the relationships among individuals’ ambulatory physiological measures, and self-report affect valence and arousal. The results from MI were compared to those from listwise deletion of entries with missingness in the covariates. When we determined the number of iterations based on the convergence diagnostics available from dynr.mi(), differences in the statistical significance of the covariate parameters were observed between the listwise deletion and MI approaches. These results underscore the importance of considering diagnostic information in the implementation of MI procedures.

Keywords: Dynamic modeling, missing data, multiple imputation, physiological measures.

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Authors: Farhat Hajer, Khir Tahar, Ammar Ben Brahim

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This work presents a study on the influence of the main operating variables on the gas turbine cycle. A numerical simulation of a gas turbine cycle is performed for a real net power of 100 MW. A calculation code is developed using EES software. The operating variables are taken in conformity with the local environmental conditions adopted by the Tunisian Society of Electricity and Gas. Results show that the increase of ambient temperature leads to an increase of Tpz and NO_x emissions rate and a decrease of cycle efficiency and UHC emissions. The CO emissions decrease with the raise of residence time, while NO_x emissions rate increases and UHC emissions rate decreases. Furthermore, both of cycle efficiency and NOx emissions increase with the increase of the pressure ratio.

Keywords: CO, efficiency, gas turbine, NOx, UHC.

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Authors: Wang Wen-long, Li Hua, Pan Sha

Abstract:

Eight difference schemes and five limiters are applied to numerical computation of Riemann problem. The resolution of discontinuities of each scheme produced is compared. Numerical dissipation and its estimation are discussed. The result shows that the numerical dissipation of each scheme is vital to improve scheme-s accuracy and stability. MUSCL methodology is an effective approach to increase computational efficiency and resolution. Limiter should be selected appropriately by balancing compressive and diffusive performance.

Keywords: Scheme; Limiter, Numerical simulation, Riemannproblem.

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Authors: Obaid AlOtaibi, Salman Hussain

Abstract:

Wind energy is associated with many geographical factors including wind speed, climate change, surface topography, environmental impacts, and several economic factors, most notably the advancement of wind technology and energy prices. It is the fastest-growing and least economically expensive method for generating electricity. Wind energy generation is directly related to the characteristics of spatial wind. Therefore, the feasibility study for the wind energy conversion system is based on the value of the energy obtained relative to the initial investment and the cost of operation and maintenance. In Kuwait, wind energy is an appropriate choice as a source of energy generation. It can be used in groundwater extraction in agricultural areas such as Al-Abdali in the north and Al-Wafra in the south, or in fresh and brackish groundwater fields or remote and isolated locations such as border areas and projects away from conventional power electricity services, to take advantage of alternative energy, reduce pollutants, and reduce energy production costs. The study covers the State of Kuwait with an exception of metropolitan area. Climatic data were attained through the readings of eight distributed monitoring stations affiliated with Kuwait Institute for Scientific Research (KISR). The data were used to assess the daily, monthly, quarterly, and annual available wind energy accessible for utilization. The researchers applied the Suitability Model to analyze the study by using the ArcGIS program. It is a model of spatial analysis that compares more than one location based on grading weights to choose the most suitable one. The study criteria are: the average annual wind speed, land use, topography of land, distance from the main road networks, urban areas. According to the previous criteria, the four proposed locations to establish wind farm projects are selected based on the weights of the degree of suitability (excellent, good, average, and poor). The percentage of areas that represents the most suitable locations with an excellent rank (4) is 8% of Kuwait’s area. It is relatively distributed as follows: Al-Shqaya, Al-Dabdeba, Al-Salmi (5.22%), Al-Abdali (1.22%), Umm al-Hayman (0.70%), North Wafra and Al-Shaqeeq (0.86%). The study recommends to decision-makers to consider the proposed location (No.1), (Al-Shqaya, Al-Dabdaba, and Al-Salmi) as the most suitable location for future development of wind farms in Kuwait, this location is economically feasible.

Keywords: Kuwait, renewable energy, spatial analysis, wind energy.

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Authors: H. H. Goh, K. C. Goh, W. N. Z. S. Wan Sukri, Q. S. Chua, S. W. Lee, B. C. Kok

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Endowed of renewable energy sources (RES) are the advantages of ASEAN, but they are using a low amount of RES only to generate electricity because their primary energy sources are fossil and coal. The cost of purchasing fossil and coal is cheaper now, but it might be expensive soon, as it will be depleted sooner and after. ASEAN showed that the RES are convenient to be implemented. Some country in ASEAN has huge renewable energy sources potential and use. The primary aim of this project is to assist ASEAN countries in preparing the renewable energy and to guide the policies for RES in the more upright direction. The Green-Y model will help ASEAN government to study and forecast the economic concept, including feed-in tariff.

Keywords: ASEAN RES, Renewable Energy, RES Policies, RES Potential, RES Utilization.

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Authors: Rade M. Ciric

Abstract:

The paper shows the development and implementation of the syllabus of the subject 'Distribution and Industrial Networks', attended by the vocational specialist Year 4 students of the Electric Power Engineering study programme at the Higher Education Technical School of Vocational Studies in Novi Sad. The aim of the subject is to equip students with the knowledge necessary for planning, exploitation and management of distributive and industrial electric power networks in an open electricity market environment. The results of the evaluation of educational outcomes on the subject are presented and discussed.

Keywords: Engineering education, power distribution network, syllabus implementation, outcome evaluation.

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Authors: Lili Wang

Abstract:

By using the estimation of the Cauchy matrix of linear impulsive differential equations and Banach fixed point theorem as well as Gronwall-Bellman’s inequality, some sufficient conditions are obtained for the existence and exponential stability of almost periodic solution for an impulsive neural networks with distributed delays. An example is presented to illustrate the feasibility and  effectiveness of the results.

Keywords: Almost periodic solution, Exponential stability, Neural networks, Impulses.

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Authors: Thanapong Suriyea, Teeratas Pornyungyuen, Koonlaya Kanokjaruvijit

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This research is aimed to find optimal values of parameters of acacia wood chips combustion in a bubbling fluidized bed for electrification within the area of the Royal Thai Navy in Sattahip, Chonburi province, Thailand. The size of wood chips falls in the range of 25 mm in diameter. The bed temperature is set within the range of 800±10 ^oC with the air flow rate of 2.1-3.1 m/min corresponding to the air-fuel ratio between 0.71 to 1.03. The resulting thermal efficiency is approximately 95% with a thermal output of 474.76 kWth, which produced the electricity 0.131 kW-hr.

Keywords: Acacia Wood Chips, Biomass, Combustion, Fluidized Bed.

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Authors: Firas M. Tuaimah

Abstract:

This paper presents an Artificial Neural Network based approach for short-term load forecasting and exactly for two days ahead. Two seasons have been discussed for Iraqi power system, namely summer and winter; the hourly load demand is the most important input variables for ANN based load forecasting. The recorded daily load profile with a lead time of 1-48 hours for July and December of the year 2012 was obtained from the operation and control center that belongs to the Ministry of Iraqi electricity.

The results of the comparison show that the neural network gives a good prediction for the load forecasting and for two days ahead.

Keywords: Short-Term Load Forecasting, Artificial Neural Networks, Back propagation learning.

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Authors: C. Patrascioiu, V. Matei, N. Nicolae

Abstract:

The paper describes the experiments and the kinetic parameters calculus of the gasoil hydrofining. They are presented experimental results of gasoil hidrofining using Mo and promoted with Ni on aluminum support catalyst. The authors have adapted a kinetic model gasoil hydrofining. Using this proposed kinetic model and the experimental data they have calculated the parameters of the model. The numerical calculus is based on minimizing the difference between the experimental sulf concentration and kinetic model estimation.

Keywords: Hydrofining, kinetic, modeling, optimization.

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Authors: K. Touafek, A. Khelifa, E. H. Khettaf, A. Embarek

Abstract:

Hybrid photovoltaic thermal (PV/T) solar system comprises a solar collector which is disposed on photovoltaic solar cells. The disadvantage of a conventional photovoltaic cell is that its performance decreases as the temperature increases. Indeed, part of the solar radiation is converted into electricity and is dissipated as heat, increasing the temperature of the photovoltaic cell with respect to the ambient temperature. The objective of this work is to study experimentally and implement a hybrid prototype to evaluate electrical and thermal performance. In this paper, an experimental study of two new configurations of hybrid collectors is exposed. The results are given and interpreted. The two configurations of absorber studied are a new combination with tubes and galvanized tank, the other is a tubes and sheet.

Keywords: Experimental, Photovoltaic, Solar, Temperature.

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Authors: Byung Ki Kim, Ho Min Jung, Jae-Bong Yoo, Wan Yeon Lee, Chan Young Park, Young Woong Ko

Abstract:

In this paper, we present a novel approach to location system under indoor environment. The key idea of our work is accurate distance estimation with cricket-based location system using A* algorithm. We also use magnetic sensor for detecting obstacles in indoor environment. Finally, we suggest how this system can be used in various applications such as asset tracking and monitoring.

Keywords: Cricket, Indoor Location Tracking, Mobile Robot, Localization.

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Authors: Anna Girchenko, Victor A. Eremeyev, Holm Altenbach

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In the present work we investigate both the elastic and electric properties of a chiral material. We consider a composite structure made from a polymer matrix and anisotropic inclusions of GaAs taking into account piezoelectric and dielectric properties of the composite material. The principal task of the work is the estimation of the functional properties of the composite material.

Keywords: Coupled electromechanical behavior, Composite structure, Chiral metamaterial.

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Authors: Setareh Gorji Ghalamestani, Lieven Vandevelde, Jan Melkebeek

Abstract:

In this work, an experimental technique is applied for the measurements of the vibrations and deformation of a test transformer core. Since the grid voltage contains some higher harmonics, in addition to a purely sinusoidal magnetisation of the core the presence of third harmonic is also studied. The vibrations of the transformer core for points as well as the surface scan of the leg show more deformation in the corners of the leg than the middle of the leg. The influence of the higher harmonic of the magnetisation on the core deformation is also more significant in the corners of the leg. The core deformation shape under a sinusoidal magnetisation with a higher harmonic is more wavy and fluctuating than that under a purely sinusoidal magnetisation.

Keywords: Vibrations and noise, transformer, vibration measurements, laser vibrometer, higher harmonic.

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