Search results for: Stochastic Distribution.
2085 Probabilistic Model Development for Project Performance Forecasting
Authors: Milad Eghtedari Naeini, Gholamreza Heravi
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In this paper, based on the past project cost and time performance, a model for forecasting project cost performance is developed. This study presents a probabilistic project control concept to assure an acceptable forecast of project cost performance. In this concept project activities are classified into sub-groups entitled control accounts. Then obtain the Stochastic S-Curve (SS-Curve), for each sub-group and the project SS-Curve is obtained by summing sub-groups- SS-Curves. In this model, project cost uncertainties are considered through Beta distribution functions of the project activities costs required to complete the project at every selected time sections through project accomplishment, which are extracted from a variety of sources. Based on this model, after a percentage of the project progress, the project performance is measured via Earned Value Management to adjust the primary cost probability distribution functions. Then, accordingly the future project cost performance is predicted by using the Monte-Carlo simulation method.Keywords: Monte Carlo method, Probabilistic model, Project forecasting, Stochastic S-curve
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 27042084 Existence of Solution of Nonlinear Second Order Neutral Stochastic Differential Inclusions with Infinite Delay
Authors: Yong Li
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The paper is concerned with the existence of solution of nonlinear second order neutral stochastic differential inclusions with infinite delay in a Hilbert Space. Sufficient conditions for the existence are obtained by using a fixed point theorem for condensing maps.
Keywords: Mild solution, Convex multivalued map, Neutral stochastic differential inclusions.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15952083 Stochastic Modeling and Combined Spatial Pattern Analysis of Epidemic Spreading
Authors: S. Chadsuthi, W. Triampo, C. Modchang, P. Kanthang, D. Triampo, N. Nuttavut
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We present analysis of spatial patterns of generic disease spread simulated by a stochastic long-range correlation SIR model, where individuals can be infected at long distance in a power law distribution. We integrated various tools, namely perimeter, circularity, fractal dimension, and aggregation index to characterize and investigate spatial pattern formations. Our primary goal was to understand for a given model of interest which tool has an advantage over the other and to what extent. We found that perimeter and circularity give information only for a case of strong correlation– while the fractal dimension and aggregation index exhibit the growth rule of pattern formation, depending on the degree of the correlation exponent (β). The aggregation index method used as an alternative method to describe the degree of pathogenic ratio (α). This study may provide a useful approach to characterize and analyze the pattern formation of epidemic spreadingKeywords: spatial pattern epidemics, aggregation index, fractaldimension, stochastic, long-rang epidemics
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 16692082 Stability Analysis of Impulsive Stochastic Fuzzy Cellular Neural Networks with Time-varying Delays and Reaction-diffusion Terms
Authors: Xinhua Zhang, Kelin Li
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In this paper, the problem of stability analysis for a class of impulsive stochastic fuzzy neural networks with timevarying delays and reaction-diffusion is considered. By utilizing suitable Lyapunov-Krasovskii funcational, the inequality technique and stochastic analysis technique, some sufficient conditions ensuring global exponential stability of equilibrium point for impulsive stochastic fuzzy cellular neural networks with time-varying delays and diffusion are obtained. In particular, the estimate of the exponential convergence rate is also provided, which depends on system parameters, diffusion effect and impulsive disturbed intention. It is believed that these results are significant and useful for the design and applications of fuzzy neural networks. An example is given to show the effectiveness of the obtained results.
Keywords: Exponential stability, stochastic fuzzy cellular neural networks, time-varying delays, impulses, reaction-diffusion terms.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 13652081 Mean Square Exponential Synchronization of Stochastic Neutral Type Chaotic Neural Networks with Mixed Delay
Authors: Zixin Liu, Huawei Yang, Fangwei Chen
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This paper studies the mean square exponential synchronization problem of a class of stochastic neutral type chaotic neural networks with mixed delay. On the Basis of Lyapunov stability theory, some sufficient conditions ensuring the mean square exponential synchronization of two identical chaotic neural networks are obtained by using stochastic analysis and inequality technique. These conditions are expressed in the form of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs), whose feasibility can be easily checked by using Matlab LMI Toolbox. The feedback controller used in this paper is more general than those used in previous literatures. One simulation example is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the derived results.
Keywords: Exponential synchronization, stochastic analysis, chaotic neural networks, neutral type system.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15512080 Stochastic Mixed 0-1 Integer Programming Applied to International Transportation Problems under Uncertainty
Authors: Y. Wu
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Today-s business has inevitably been set in the global supply chain management environment. International transportation has never played such an important role in the global supply chain network, because movement of shipments from one country to another tends to be more frequent than ever before. This paper studies international transportation problems experienced by an international transportation company. Because of the limited fleet capacity, the transportation company has to hire additional trucks from two countries in advance. However, customer-s shipment information is uncertain, and decisions have to be made before accurate information can be obtained. This paper proposes a stochastic mixed 0-1 programming model to solve the international transportation problems under uncertain demand. A series of experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed stochastic model.
Keywords: Global supply chain management, international transportation, stochastic programming.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 16062079 A New Application of Stochastic Transformation
Authors: Nilar Win Kyaw
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In cryptography, confusion and diffusion are very important to get confidentiality and privacy of message in block ciphers and stream ciphers. There are two types of network to provide confusion and diffusion properties of message in block ciphers. They are Substitution- Permutation network (S-P network), and Feistel network. NLFS (Non-Linear feedback stream cipher) is a fast and secure stream cipher for software application. NLFS have two modes basic mode that is synchronous mode and self synchronous mode. Real random numbers are non-deterministic. R-box (random box) based on the dynamic properties and it performs the stochastic transformation of data that can be used effectively meet the challenges of information is protected from international destructive impacts. In this paper, a new implementation of stochastic transformation will be proposed.Keywords: S-P network, Feistel network, R-block, stochastic transformation
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15022078 Stability of Stochastic Model Predictive Control for Schrödinger Equation with Finite Approximation
Authors: Tomoaki Hashimoto
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Recent technological advance has prompted significant interest in developing the control theory of quantum systems. Following the increasing interest in the control of quantum dynamics, this paper examines the control problem of Schrödinger equation because quantum dynamics is basically governed by Schrödinger equation. From the practical point of view, stochastic disturbances cannot be avoided in the implementation of control method for quantum systems. Thus, we consider here the robust stabilization problem of Schrödinger equation against stochastic disturbances. In this paper, we adopt model predictive control method in which control performance over a finite future is optimized with a performance index that has a moving initial and terminal time. The objective of this study is to derive the stability criterion for model predictive control of Schrödinger equation under stochastic disturbances.Keywords: Optimal control, stochastic systems, quantum systems, stabilization.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 23322077 TS Fuzzy Controller to Stochastic Systems
Authors: Joabe Silva, Ginalber Serra
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This paper proposes the analysis and design of robust fuzzy control to Stochastic Parametrics Uncertaint Linear systems. This system type to be controlled is partitioned into several linear sub-models, in terms of transfer function, forming a convex polytope, similar to LPV (Linear Parameters Varying) system. Once defined the linear sub-models of the plant, these are organized into fuzzy Takagi- Sugeno (TS) structure. From the Parallel Distributed Compensation (PDC) strategy, a mathematical formulation is defined in the frequency domain, based on the gain and phase margins specifications, to obtain robust PI sub-controllers in accordance to the Takagi- Sugeno fuzzy model of the plant. The main results of the paper are based on the robust stability conditions with the proposal of one Axiom and two Theorems.Keywords: Fuzzy Systems; Robust Stability, Stochastic Control, Stochastic Process
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 16902076 Conservativeness of Probabilistic Constrained Optimal Control Method for Unknown Probability Distribution
Authors: Tomoaki Hashimoto
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In recent decades, probabilistic constrained optimal control problems have attracted much attention in many research fields. Although probabilistic constraints are generally intractable in an optimization problem, several tractable methods haven been proposed to handle probabilistic constraints. In most methods, probabilistic constraints are reduced to deterministic constraints that are tractable in an optimization problem. However, there is a gap between the transformed deterministic constraints in case of known and unknown probability distribution. This paper examines the conservativeness of probabilistic constrained optimization method for unknown probability distribution. The objective of this paper is to provide a quantitative assessment of the conservatism for tractable constraints in probabilistic constrained optimization with unknown probability distribution.Keywords: Optimal control, stochastic systems, discrete-time systems, probabilistic constraints.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 19132075 Optimal Production and Maintenance Policy for a Partially Observable Production System with Stochastic Demand
Authors: Leila Jafari, Viliam Makis
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In this paper, the joint optimization of the economic manufacturing quantity (EMQ), safety stock level, and condition-based maintenance (CBM) is presented for a partially observable, deteriorating system subject to random failure. The demand is stochastic and it is described by a Poisson process. The stochastic model is developed and the optimization problem is formulated in the semi-Markov decision process framework. A modification of the policy iteration algorithm is developed to find the optimal policy. A numerical example is presented to compare the optimal policy with the policy considering zero safety stock.Keywords: Condition-based maintenance, economic manufacturing quantity, safety stock, stochastic demand.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 8172074 A Novel Probablistic Strategy for Modeling Photovoltaic Based Distributed Generators
Authors: Engy A. Mohamed, Yasser G. Hegazy
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This paper presents a novel algorithm for modeling photovoltaic based distributed generators for the purpose of optimal planning of distribution networks. The proposed algorithm utilizes sequential Monte Carlo method in order to accurately consider the stochastic nature of photovoltaic based distributed generators. The proposed algorithm is implemented in MATLAB environment and the results obtained are presented and discussed.Keywords: Comulative distribution function, distributed generation, Monte Carlo.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 24762073 New PTH Moment Stable Criteria of Stochastic Neural Networks
Authors: Zixin Liu, Huawei Yang, Fangwei Chen
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In this paper, the issue of pth moment stability of a class of stochastic neural networks with mixed delays is investigated. By establishing two integro-differential inequalities, some new sufficient conditions ensuring pth moment exponential stability are obtained. Compared with some previous publications, our results generalize some earlier works reported in the literature, and remove some strict constraints of time delays and kernel functions. Two numerical examples are presented to illustrate the validity of the main results.
Keywords: Neural networks, stochastic, PTH moment stable, time varying delays, distributed delays.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 14582072 Exponential Stability of Numerical Solutions to Stochastic Age-Dependent Population Equations with Poisson Jumps
Authors: Mao Wei
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The main aim of this paper is to investigate the exponential stability of the Euler method for a stochastic age-dependent population equations with Poisson random measures. It is proved that the Euler scheme is exponentially stable in mean square sense. An example is given for illustration.
Keywords: Stochastic age-dependent population equations, poisson random measures, numerical solutions, exponential stability.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 13702071 A Study on Stochastic Integral Associated with Catastrophes
Authors: M. Reni Sagayaraj, S. Anand Gnana Selvam, R. Reynald Susainathan
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We analyze stochastic integrals associated with a mutation process. To be specific, we describe the cell population process and derive the differential equations for the joint generating functions for the number of mutants and their integrals in generating functions and their applications. We obtain first-order moments of the processes of the two-way mutation process in first-order moment structure of X (t) and Y (t) and the second-order moments of a one-way mutation process. In this paper, we obtain the limiting behaviour of the integrals in limiting distributions of X (t) and Y (t).
Keywords: Stochastic integrals, single–server queue model, catastrophes, busy period.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 7892070 Optimal Portfolio Selection in a DC Pension with Multiple Contributors and the Impact of Stochastic Additional Voluntary Contribution on the Optimal Investment Strategy
Authors: Edikan E. Akpanibah, Okwigbedi Oghen’Oro
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In this paper, we studied the optimal portfolio selection in a defined contribution (DC) pension scheme with multiple contributors under constant elasticity of variance (CEV) model and the impact of stochastic additional voluntary contribution on the investment strategies. We assume that the voluntary contributions are stochastic and also consider investments in a risk free asset and a risky asset to increase the expected returns of the contributing members. We derived a stochastic differential equation which consists of the members’ monthly contributions and the invested fund and obtained an optimized problem with the help of Hamilton Jacobi Bellman equation. Furthermore, we find an explicit solution for the optimal investment strategy with stochastic voluntary contribution using power transformation and change of variables method and the corresponding optimal fund size was obtained. We discussed the impact of the voluntary contribution on the optimal investment strategy with numerical simulations and observed that the voluntary contribution reduces the optimal investment strategy of the risky asset.
Keywords: DC pension fund, Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman, optimal investment strategies, power transformation method, stochastic, voluntary contribution.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 8212069 A General Stochastic Spatial MIMO Channel Model for Evaluating Various MIMO Techniques
Authors: Fang Shu, Li Lihua, Zhang Ping
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A general stochastic spatial MIMO channel model is proposed for evaluating various MIMO techniques in this paper. It can generate MIMO channels complying with various MIMO configurations such as smart antenna, spatial diversity and spatial multiplexing. The modeling method produces the stochastic fading involving delay spread, Doppler spread, DOA (direction of arrival), AS (angle spread), PAS (power azimuth Spectrum) of the scatterers, antenna spacing and the wavelength. It can be applied in various MIMO technique researches flexibly with low computing complexity.Keywords: MIMO channel, Spatial Correlation, DOA, AS, PAS.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 16622068 Choosing Search Algorithms in Bayesian Optimization Algorithm
Authors: Hao Wu, Jonathan L. Shapiro
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The Bayesian Optimization Algorithm (BOA) is an algorithm based on the estimation of distributions. It uses techniques from modeling data by Bayesian networks to estimating the joint distribution of promising solutions. To obtain the structure of Bayesian network, different search algorithms can be used. The key point that BOA addresses is whether the constructed Bayesian network could generate new and useful solutions (strings), which could lead the algorithm in the right direction to solve the problem. Undoubtedly, this ability is a crucial factor of the efficiency of BOA. Varied search algorithms can be used in BOA, but their performances are different. For choosing better ones, certain suitable method to present their ability difference is needed. In this paper, a greedy search algorithm and a stochastic search algorithm are used in BOA to solve certain optimization problem. A method using Kullback-Leibler (KL) Divergence to reflect their difference is described.
Keywords: Bayesian optimization algorithm, greedy search, KL divergence, stochastic search.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 16832067 Hybrid Equity Warrants Pricing Formulation under Stochastic Dynamics
Authors: Teh Raihana Nazirah Roslan, Siti Zulaiha Ibrahim, Sharmila Karim
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A warrant is a financial contract that confers the right but not the obligation, to buy or sell a security at a certain price before expiration. The standard procedure to value equity warrants using call option pricing models such as the Black–Scholes model had been proven to contain many flaws, such as the assumption of constant interest rate and constant volatility. In fact, existing alternative models were found focusing more on demonstrating techniques for pricing, rather than empirical testing. Therefore, a mathematical model for pricing and analyzing equity warrants which comprises stochastic interest rate and stochastic volatility is essential to incorporate the dynamic relationships between the identified variables and illustrate the real market. Here, the aim is to develop dynamic pricing formulations for hybrid equity warrants by incorporating stochastic interest rates from the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) model, along with stochastic volatility from the Heston model. The development of the model involves the derivations of stochastic differential equations that govern the model dynamics. The resulting equations which involve Cauchy problem and heat equations are then solved using partial differential equation approaches. The analytical pricing formulas obtained in this study comply with the form of analytical expressions embedded in the Black-Scholes model and other existing pricing models for equity warrants. This facilitates the practicality of this proposed formula for comparison purposes and further empirical study.
Keywords: Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model, equity warrants, Heston model, hybrid models, stochastic.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 5682066 Modelling of Electron States in Quantum -Wire Systems - Influence of Stochastic Effects on the Confining Potential
Authors: Mikhail Vladimirovich Deryabin, Morten Willatzen
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In this work, we address theoretically the influence of red and white Gaussian noise for electronic energies and eigenstates of cylindrically shaped quantum dots. The stochastic effect can be imagined as resulting from crystal-growth statistical fluctuations in the quantum-dot material composition. In particular we obtain analytical expressions for the eigenvalue shifts and electronic envelope functions in the k . p formalism due to stochastic variations in the confining band-edge potential. It is shown that white noise in the band-edge potential leaves electronic properties almost unaffected while red noise may lead to changes in state energies and envelopefunction amplitudes of several percentages. In the latter case, the ensemble-averaged envelope function decays as a function of distance. It is also shown that, in a stochastic system, constant ensembleaveraged envelope functions are the only bounded solutions for the infinite quantum-wire problem and the energy spectrum is completely discrete. In other words, the infinite stochastic quantum wire behaves, ensemble-averaged, as an atom.
Keywords: cylindrical quantum dots, electronic eigen energies, red and white Gaussian noise, ensemble averaging effects.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15202065 Interstate Comparison of Environmental Performance using Stochastic Frontier Analysis: The United States Case Study
Authors: Alexander Y. Vaninsky
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Environmental performance of the U.S. States is investigated for the period of 1990 – 2007 using Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA). The SFA accounts for both efficiency measure and stochastic noise affecting a frontier. The frontier is formed using indicators of GDP, energy consumption, population, and CO2 emissions. For comparability, all indicators are expressed as ratios to total. Statistical information of the Energy Information Agency of the United States is used. Obtained results reveal the bell - shaped dynamics of environmental efficiency scores. The average efficiency scores rise from 97.6% in 1990 to 99.6% in 1999, and then fall to 98.4% in 2007. The main factor is insufficient decrease in the rate of growth of CO2 emissions with regards to the growth of GDP, population and energy consumption. Data for 2008 following the research period allow for an assumption that the environmental performance of the U.S. States has improved in the last years.
Keywords: Stochastic frontier analysis, environmental performance, interstate comparisons.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 16992064 Properties of a Stochastic Predator-Prey System with Holling II Functional Response
Authors: Xianqing Liu, Shouming Zhong, Fuli Zhong, Zijian Liu
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In this paper, a stochastic predator-prey system with Holling II functional response is studied. First, we show that there is a unique positive solution to the system for any given positive initial value. Then, stochastically bounded of the positive solution to the stochastic system is derived. Moreover, sufficient conditions for global asymptotic stability are also established. In the end, some simulation figures are carried out to support the analytical findings.
Keywords: stochastically bounded, global stability, Holling II functional response, white noise, Markovian switching.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15732063 Optimization of Communication Protocols by stochastic Delay Mechanisms
Authors: J. Levendovszky, I. Koncz, P. Boros
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The paper is concerned with developing stochastic delay mechanisms for efficient multicast protocols and for smooth mobile handover processes which are capable of preserving a given Quality of Service (QoS). In both applications the participating entities (receiver nodes or subscribers) sample a stochastic timer and generate load after a random delay. In this way, the load on the networking resources is evenly distributed which helps to maintain QoS communication. The optimal timer distributions have been sought in different p.d.f. families (e.g. exponential, power law and radial basis function) and the optimal parameter have been found in a recursive manner. Detailed simulations have demonstrated the improvement in performance both in the case of multicast and mobile handover applications.
Keywords: Multicast communication, stochactic delay mechanisms.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15412062 Network of Coupled Stochastic Oscillators and One-way Quantum Computations
Authors: Eugene Grichuk, Margarita Kuzmina, Eduard Manykin
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A network of coupled stochastic oscillators is proposed for modeling of a cluster of entangled qubits that is exploited as a computation resource in one-way quantum computation schemes. A qubit model has been designed as a stochastic oscillator formed by a pair of coupled limit cycle oscillators with chaotically modulated limit cycle radii and frequencies. The qubit simulates the behavior of electric field of polarized light beam and adequately imitates the states of two-level quantum system. A cluster of entangled qubits can be associated with a beam of polarized light, light polarization degree being directly related to cluster entanglement degree. Oscillatory network, imitating qubit cluster, is designed, and system of equations for network dynamics has been written. The constructions of one-qubit gates are suggested. Changing of cluster entanglement degree caused by measurements can be exactly calculated.Keywords: network of stochastic oscillators, one-way quantumcomputations, a beam of polarized light.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 13922061 Network-Constrained AC Unit Commitment under Uncertainty Using a Bender’s Decomposition Approach
Authors: B. Janani, S. Thiruvenkadam
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In this work, the system evaluates the impact of considering a stochastic approach on the day ahead basis Unit Commitment. Comparisons between stochastic and deterministic Unit Commitment solutions are provided. The Unit Commitment model consists in the minimization of the total operation costs considering unit’s technical constraints like ramping rates, minimum up and down time. Load shedding and wind power spilling is acceptable, but at inflated operational costs. The evaluation process consists in the calculation of the optimal unit commitment and in verifying the fulfillment of the considered constraints. For the calculation of the optimal unit commitment, an algorithm based on the Benders Decomposition, namely on the Dual Dynamic Programming, was developed. Two approaches were considered on the construction of stochastic solutions. Data related to wind power outputs from two different operational days are considered on the analysis. Stochastic and deterministic solutions are compared based on the actual measured wind power output at the operational day. Through a technique capability of finding representative wind power scenarios and its probabilities, the system can analyze a more detailed process about the expected final operational cost.
Keywords: Benders’ decomposition, network constrained AC unit commitment, stochastic programming, wind power uncertainty.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 13062060 Burstiness Reduction of a Doubly Stochastic AR-Modeled Uniform Activity VBR Video
Authors: J. P. Dubois
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Stochastic modeling of network traffic is an area of significant research activity for current and future broadband communication networks. Multimedia traffic is statistically characterized by a bursty variable bit rate (VBR) profile. In this paper, we develop an improved model for uniform activity level video sources in ATM using a doubly stochastic autoregressive model driven by an underlying spatial point process. We then examine a number of burstiness metrics such as the peak-to-average ratio (PAR), the temporal autocovariance function (ACF) and the traffic measurements histogram. We found that the former measure is most suitable for capturing the burstiness of single scene video traffic. In the last phase of this work, we analyse statistical multiplexing of several constant scene video sources. This proved, expectedly, to be advantageous with respect to reducing the burstiness of the traffic, as long as the sources are statistically independent. We observed that the burstiness was rapidly diminishing, with the largest gain occuring when only around 5 sources are multiplexed. The novel model used in this paper for characterizing uniform activity video was thus found to be an accurate model.Keywords: AR, ATM, burstiness, doubly stochastic, statisticalmultiplexing.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 13992059 Stochastic Resonance in Nonlinear Signal Detection
Authors: Youguo Wang, Lenan Wu
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Stochastic resonance (SR) is a phenomenon whereby the signal transmission or signal processing through certain nonlinear systems can be improved by adding noise. This paper discusses SR in nonlinear signal detection by a simple test statistic, which can be computed from multiple noisy data in a binary decision problem based on a maximum a posteriori probability criterion. The performance of detection is assessed by the probability of detection error Per . When the input signal is subthreshold signal, we establish that benefit from noise can be gained for different noises and confirm further that the subthreshold SR exists in nonlinear signal detection. The efficacy of SR is significantly improved and the minimum of Per can dramatically approach to zero as the sample number increases. These results show the robustness of SR in signal detection and extend the applicability of SR in signal processing.Keywords: Probability of detection error, signal detection, stochastic resonance.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15212058 Forecasting the Volatility of Geophysical Time Series with Stochastic Volatility Models
Authors: Maria C. Mariani, Md Al Masum Bhuiyan, Osei K. Tweneboah, Hector G. Huizar
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This work is devoted to the study of modeling geophysical time series. A stochastic technique with time-varying parameters is used to forecast the volatility of data arising in geophysics. In this study, the volatility is defined as a logarithmic first-order autoregressive process. We observe that the inclusion of log-volatility into the time-varying parameter estimation significantly improves forecasting which is facilitated via maximum likelihood estimation. This allows us to conclude that the estimation algorithm for the corresponding one-step-ahead suggested volatility (with ±2 standard prediction errors) is very feasible since it possesses good convergence properties.Keywords: Augmented Dickey Fuller Test, geophysical time series, maximum likelihood estimation, stochastic volatility model.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 8512057 Likelihood Estimation for Stochastic Epidemics with Heterogeneous Mixing Populations
Authors: Yilun Shang
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We consider a heterogeneously mixing SIR stochastic epidemic process in populations described by a general graph. Likelihood theory is developed to facilitate statistic inference for the parameters of the model under complete observation. We show that these estimators are asymptotically Gaussian unbiased estimates by using a martingale central limit theorem.Keywords: statistic inference, maximum likelihood, epidemicmodel, heterogeneous mixing.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 13982056 Wind Power Forecast Error Simulation Model
Authors: Josip Vasilj, Petar Sarajcev, Damir Jakus
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One of the major difficulties introduced with wind power penetration is the inherent uncertainty in production originating from uncertain wind conditions. This uncertainty impacts many different aspects of power system operation, especially the balancing power requirements. For this reason, in power system development planing, it is necessary to evaluate the potential uncertainty in future wind power generation. For this purpose, simulation models are required, reproducing the performance of wind power forecasts. This paper presents a wind power forecast error simulation models which are based on the stochastic process simulation. Proposed models capture the most important statistical parameters recognized in wind power forecast error time series. Furthermore, two distinct models are presented based on data availability. First model uses wind speed measurements on potential or existing wind power plant locations, while the seconds model uses statistical distribution of wind speeds.
Keywords: Wind power, Uncertainty, Stochastic process, Monte Carlo simulation.
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