Search results for: Short term aging

Authors: Amit Kumar Meena, Joydip Dhar

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This paper is focused on the analysis and comparison of liquidity ratios and asset liability management practices in top three banks from public, private and foreign sector in India. The analysis is based upon the liquidity ratios calculation and the determination of maturity gap profiles for the banks under study. The paper also compares these banks maturity gap profiles with their corresponding group’s maturity gap profiles. This paper identifies the interest rate sensitivity of the balance sheet items of these banks to determine the gap between rate sensitive assets and rate sensitive liabilities. The results of this study suggest that overall banks in India have very good short term liquidity position and all banks are financing their short term liabilities by their long term assets.

Keywords: ALM, Liquidity ratios, Rate sensitive Assets, Rate Sensitive Liabilities.

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Authors: S. Mahovic Poljacek, T. Tomasegovic, T. Cigula, D. Donevski, R. Szentgyörgyvölgyi, S. Jakovljevic

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In this paper, a degradation of the photopolymeric material (PhPM), used as printing plate in the flexography reproduction technique, caused by accelerated aging has been observed. Since the basis process for production of printing plates from the PhPM is a radical cross-linking process caused by exposing to UV wavelengths, the assumption was that improper storage or irregular handling of the PhPM plate can change the surface and structure characteristics of the plates. Results have shown that the aging process causes degradation in the structure and changes in the surface of the PhPM printing plate.

Keywords: Aging process, accelerated treatment, flexography, photopolymeric material (PhPM).

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Authors: HoYoung Son, DongHoon Shin, WooYoung Jung

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This study presented the seismic fragility framework of concrete weir structure subjected to strong seismic ground motions and in particular, concrete aging condition of the weir structure was taken into account in this study. In order to understand the influence of concrete aging on the weir structure, by using probabilistic risk assessment, the analytical seismic fragility of the weir structure was derived for pre- and post-deterioration of concrete. The performance of concrete weir structure after five years was assumed for the concrete aging or deterioration, and according to after five years’ condition, the elastic modulus was simply reduced about one–tenth compared with initial condition of weir structures. A 2D nonlinear finite element analysis was performed considering the deterioration of concrete in weir structures using ABAQUS platform, a commercial structural analysis program. Simplified concrete degradation was resulted in the increase of almost 45% of the probability of failure at Limit State 3, in comparison to initial construction stage, by analyzing the seismic fragility.

Keywords: Weir, FEM, concrete, fragility, aging

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Authors: Mohamed Tarek Khadir, Damien Fay, Ahmed Boughrira

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Short term electricity demand forecasts are required by power utilities for efficient operation of the power grid. In a competitive market environment, suppliers and large consumers also require short term forecasts in order to estimate their energy requirements in advance. Electricity demand is influenced (among other things) by the day of the week, the time of year and special periods and/or days such as Ramadhan, all of which must be identified prior to modelling. This identification, known as day-type identification, must be included in the modelling stage either by segmenting the data and modelling each day-type separately or by including the day-type as an input. Day-type identification is the main focus of this paper. A Kohonen map is employed to identify the separate day-types in Algerian data.

Keywords: Day type identification, electricity Load, Kohonenmaps, load forecasting.

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Authors: Ornst J., Voracek J., Allouache A., Allouache D.

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Lack of resources for road infrastructure financing is a problem that currently affects not only eastern European economies but also many other countries especially in relation to the impact of global financial crisis. In this context, we are talking about the socalled short-investment problem as a result of long-term lack of investment resources. Based on an analysis of road infrastructure financing in the Czech Republic this article points out at weaknesses of current system and proposes a long-term planning methodology supported by system approach. Within this methodology and using created system dynamic model the article predicts the development of short-investment problem in the Country and in reaction on the downward trend of certain sources the article presents various scenarios resulting from the change of the structure of financial sources. In the discussion the article focuses more closely on the possibility of introduction of tax on vehicles instead of taxes with declining revenue streams and estimates its approximate price in relation to reaching various solutions of short-investment in time.

Keywords: Road financing, road infrastructure development, system dynamics

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Authors: Tarek Aboueldahab

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In this paper, we propose a new hybrid learning model for stock market indices prediction by adding a passive congregation term to the standard hybrid model comprising Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) with Genetic Algorithm (GA) operators in training Neural Networks (NN). This new passive congregation term is based on the cooperation between different particles in determining new positions rather than depending on the particles selfish thinking without considering other particles positions, thus it enables PSO to perform both the local and global search instead of only doing the local search. Experiment study carried out on the most famous European stock market indices in both long term and short term prediction shows significantly the influence of the passive congregation term in improving the prediction accuracy compared to standard hybrid model.

Keywords: Global Search, Hybrid Model, Passive Congregation, Stock Market Prediction.

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Authors: Venerando E. Amaro, Francisco Gabriel F. de Lima, Marcelo S.T. Santos

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The morphological short-term evolution of Ponta do Tubarão Island (PTI) was investigated through high accurate surveys based on post-processed kinematic (PPK) relative positioning on Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS). PTI is part of a barrier island system on a high energy northeast Brazilian coastal environment and also an area of high environmental sensitivity. Surveys were carried out quarterly over a two years period from May 2010 to May 2012. This paper assesses statically the performance of digital elevation models (DEM) derived from different interpolation methods to represent morphologic features and to quantify volumetric changes and TIN models shown the best results to that purposes. The MDE allowed quantifying surfaces and volumes in detail as well as identifying the most vulnerable segments of the PTI to erosion and/or accumulation of sediments and relate the alterations to climate conditions. The coastal setting and geometry of PTI protects a significant mangrove ecosystem and some oil and gas facilities installed in the vicinities from damaging effects of strong oceanwaves and currents. Thus, the maintenance of PTI is extremely required but the prediction of its longevity is uncertain because results indicate an irregularity of sedimentary balance and a substantial decline in sediment supply to this coastal area.

Keywords: DEM, GNSS, short-term monitoring, Brazil.

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Authors: Chang-le Lu, Yong Chen

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The shortest path question is in a graph theory model question, and it is applied in many fields. The most short-path question may divide into two kinds: Single sources most short-path, all apexes to most short-path. This article mainly introduces the problem of all apexes to most short-path, and gives a new parallel algorithm of all apexes to most short-path according to the Dijkstra algorithm. At last this paper realizes the parallel algorithms in the technology of C # multithreading.

Keywords: Dijkstra algorithm, parallel algorithms, multi-thread technology, most short-path, ratio.

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Authors: Viacheslav Shkuratskyy, Aminu Bello Usman, Michael O’Dea, Mujeeb Ur Rehman, Saifur Rahman Sabuj

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This paper examines relationships between solar activity and earthquakes, it applied machine learning techniques: K-nearest neighbour, support vector regression, random forest regression, and long short-term memory network. Data from the SILSO World Data Center, the NOAA National Center, the GOES satellite, NASA OMNIWeb, and the United States Geological Survey were used for the experiment. The 23rd and 24th solar cycles, daily sunspot number, solar wind velocity, proton density, and proton temperature were all included in the dataset. The study also examined sunspots, solar wind, and solar flares, which all reflect solar activity, and earthquake frequency distribution by magnitude and depth. The findings showed that the long short-term memory network model predicts earthquakes more correctly than the other models applied in the study, and solar activity is more likely to effect earthquakes of lower magnitude and shallow depth than earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or larger with intermediate depth and deep depth

.

Keywords: K-Nearest Neighbour, Support Vector Regression, Random Forest Regression, Long Short-Term Memory Network, earthquakes, solar activity, sunspot number, solar wind, solar flares.

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Authors: Samra Bajwa, Muhammad W. Siddiqi

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The study investigates the causal link between trade openness and economic growth for four South Asian countries for period 1972-1985 and 1986-2007 to examine the scenario before and after the implementation of SAARC. Panel cointegration and FMOLS techniques are employed for short run and long run estimates. In 1972-85 short run unidirectional causality from GDP to openness is found whereas, in 1986-2007 there exists bi-directional causality between GDP and openness. The long run elasticity magnitude between GDP and openness contains negative sign in 1972-85 which shows that there exists long run negative relationship. While in time period 1986-2007 the elasticity magnitude has positive sign that indicates positive causation between GDP and openness. So it can be concluded that after the implementation of SAARC overall situation of selected countries got better. Also long run coefficient of error term suggests that short term equilibrium adjustments are driven by adjustment back to long run equilibrium.

Keywords: Causality, Economic Growth, Panel Co-integration, SAARC, Trade Openness.

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Authors: Mustafa Akpolat, Baha Vural Kök

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Using a waste material such as crumb rubber (CR) obtained by waste tires has become an important issue in respect to sustainability. However, the CR modified mixture also requires high manufacture temperature as a polymer modified mixture. For this reason in this study, it is intended to produce a CR modified mixture with warm mix asphalt additives in the same mixture. Asphalt mixtures produced by pure, 10%CR, 10%CR+3% Sasobit and 10%CR+0.7% Evotherm were subjected to aging procedure in the laboratory and the field. The indirect tensile repeated tests were applied to aged and original specimens. It was concluded that the fatigue life of the mixtures increased significantly with the increase of aging time. CR+Sasobit modified mixture aged at the both field and laboratory gave the highest load cycle among the mixtures.

Keywords: Crumb rubber, warm mix asphalt, aging, fatigue.

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Authors: Burak Yigit Katanalp, Murat Tastan, Perviz Ahmedzade, Çigdem Canbay Turkyilmaz, Emrah Turkyilmaz

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This study evaluated the mechanical and rheological performance of fly ash-based geopolymer at high temperatures. A series of laboratory tests were conducted on neat bitumen and three modified bitumen samples, which incorporated fly ash-based geopolymer at various percentages. Low-calcium fly ash was used as the alumina-silica source. The dynamic shear rheometer and rotational viscometer were employed to determine high-temperature properties, while conventional tests such as penetration and softening point were used to evaluate the physical properties of bitumen. Short-term aging resistance of the samples was assessed using the rolling thin film oven. The results show that geopolymer has a compromising effect on bitumen properties, with improved stiffness, enhanced mechanical strength, and increased thermal susceptibility of the asphalt binder.

Keywords: Bitumen, geopolymer, rutting, dynamic mechanical analysis.

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Authors: N. Kaneva, A. Bojinova, K. Papazova

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Thin ZnO films are deposited on glass substrates via sol–gel method and dip-coating. The films are prepared from zinc acetate dehydrate as a starting reagent. After that the as-prepared ZnO sol is aged for different periods (0, 1, 3, 5, 10, 15 and 30 days). Nanocrystalline thin films are deposited from various sols. The effect ZnO sols aging time on the structural and photocatalytic properties of the films is studied. The films surface is studied by Scanning Electron Microscopy. The effect of the aging time of the starting solution is studied in the photocatalytic degradation of Reactive Black 5 (RB5) by UV-vis spectroscopy. The experiments are conducted upon UV-light illumination and in complete darkness. The variation of the absorption spectra shows the degradation of RB5 dissolved in water, as a result of the reaction, occurring on the surface of the films and promoted by UV irradiation. The initial concentrations of dye (5, 10 and 20 ppm) and the effect of the aging time are varied during the experiments. The results show, that the increasing aging time of starting solution with respect to ZnO generally promotes photocatalytic activity. The thin films obtained from ZnO sol, which is aged 30 days have best photocatalytic degradation of the dye (97,22%) in comparison with the freshly prepared ones (65,92%). The samples and photocatalytic experimental results are reproducible. Nevertheless, all films exhibit a substantial activity in both UV light and darkness, which is promising for the development of new ZnO photocatalysts by sol-gel method.

Keywords: ZnO thin films, sol-gel, photocatalysis, aging time.

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Authors: Marcel Chevalier, Léo Dupont, Sylvain Marié, Frédérique Roffet, Elena Stolyarova, William Templier, Costin Vasile

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Industrial end users are currently facing an increasing need to reduce the risk of unexpected failures and optimize their maintenance. This calls for both short-term analysis and long-term ageing anticipation. At Schneider Electric, we tackle those two issues using both Machine Learning and First Principles models. Machine learning models are incrementally trained from normal data to predict expected values and detect statistically significant short-term deviations. Ageing models are constructed from breaking down physical systems into sub-assemblies, then determining relevant degradation modes and associating each one to the right kinetic law. Validating such anomaly detection and maintenance models is challenging, both because actual incident and ageing data are rare and distorted by human interventions, and incremental learning depends on human feedback. To overcome these difficulties, we propose to simulate physics, systems and humans – including asset maintenance operations – in order to validate the overall approaches in accelerated time and possibly choose between algorithmic alternatives.

Keywords: Degradation models, ageing, anomaly detection, soft sensor, incremental learning.

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Authors: H. Shayeghi, H. A. Shayanfar, G. Azimi

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The quality of short term load forecasting can improve the efficiency of planning and operation of electric utilities. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) are employed for nonlinear short term load forecasting owing to their powerful nonlinear mapping capabilities. At present, there is no systematic methodology for optimal design and training of an artificial neural network. One has often to resort to the trial and error approach. This paper describes the process of developing three layer feed-forward large neural networks for short-term load forecasting and then presents a heuristic search algorithm for performing an important task of this process, i.e. optimal networks structure design. Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) is used to develop the optimum large neural network structure and connecting weights for one-day ahead electric load forecasting problem. PSO is a novel random optimization method based on swarm intelligence, which has more powerful ability of global optimization. Employing PSO algorithms on the design and training of ANNs allows the ANN architecture and parameters to be easily optimized. The proposed method is applied to STLF of the local utility. Data are clustered due to the differences in their characteristics. Special days are extracted from the normal training sets and handled separately. In this way, a solution is provided for all load types, including working days and weekends and special days. The experimental results show that the proposed method optimized by PSO can quicken the learning speed of the network and improve the forecasting precision compared with the conventional Back Propagation (BP) method. Moreover, it is not only simple to calculate, but also practical and effective. Also, it provides a greater degree of accuracy in many cases and gives lower percent errors all the time for STLF problem compared to BP method. Thus, it can be applied to automatically design an optimal load forecaster based on historical data.

Keywords: Large Neural Network, Short-Term Load Forecasting, Particle Swarm Optimization.

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Authors: Tomohiro Hachino, Hitoshi Takata, Seiji Fukushima, Yasutaka Igarashi

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This paper presents a Gaussian process model-based short-term electric load forecasting. The Gaussian process model is a nonparametric model and the output of the model has Gaussian distribution with mean and variance. The multiple Gaussian process models as every hour ahead predictors are used to forecast future electric load demands up to 24 hours ahead in accordance with the direct forecasting approach. The separable least-squares approach that combines the linear least-squares method and genetic algorithm is applied to train these Gaussian process models. Simulation results are shown to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed electric load forecasting.

Keywords: Direct method, electric load forecasting, Gaussian process model, genetic algorithm, separable least-squares method.

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Authors: Yasin Khan

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Overhead electrical insulators form an important link in an electric power system. Along with the traditional insulators (i.e. glass and porcelain, etc) presently the polymeric insulators are also used world widely. These polymeric insulators are very sensitive to various environmental parameters such temperature, environmental pollution, UV-radiations, etc. which seriously effect their electrical, chemical and hydrophobic properties. The UV radiation level in the central region of Saudi Arabia is high as compared to the IEC standard for the accelerated aging of the composite insulators. Commonly used suspension type of composite EPDM (Ethylene Propylene Diene Monomer) insulator was subjected to accelerated stress aging as per modified IEC standard simulating the inland arid deserts atmospheric condition and also as per IEC-61109 standard. The hydrophobic characteristics were studied by measuring the contact angle along the insulator surface before and after the accelerated aging of the samples. It was found that EPDM insulator loses it hydrophobic properties proportional to the intensity of UV irradiations and its rate of recovery is also very low as compared to Silicone Rubber insulator.KeywordsEPDM, composite insulators, accelerated aging, hydrophobicity, contact angle.

Keywords: EPDM, composite insulators, accelerated aging, hydrophobicity, contact angle.

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Authors: Michael Schukat

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Electromagnetic flowmeters with DC excitation are used for a wide range of fluid measurement tasks, but are rarely found in dosing applications with short measurement cycles due to the achievable accuracy. This paper will identify a number of factors that influence the accuracy of this sensor type when used for short-term measurements. Based on these results a new signal-processing algorithm will be described that overcomes the identified problems to some extend. This new method allows principally a higher accuracy of electromagnetic flowmeters with DC excitation than traditional methods.

Keywords: Electromagnetic Flowmeter, Kalman Filter, ShortMeasurement Cycles, Signal Estimation

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Authors: Aman Patidar, Dipankar Sarkar, Manish Pal

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Due to rapid development, increase in the traffic load, higher traffic volume and seasonal variation in temperature, asphalt pavement shows distresses like rutting, fatigue and thermal cracking etc. because of this pavement fails during service life so that bitumen needs to be modified with some additive. In this study VG30 grade bitumen modify with addition of nanosilica with 1% to 5% (increment of 1%) by weight of bitumen. Hot mix asphalt (HMA) have higher mixing, laying and rolling temperatures which leads to higher consumption of fuel. To address this issue, a nano material named ZycoTherm which is chemical warm mix asphalt (WMA) additive is added to bitumen. Nanosilica modification (NSMB) results in the increase in stability compared to unmodified bitumen (UMB). WMA modified mix shows slightly higher stability than UMB and NSMB in a lower bitumen content. The Retained stability and tensile strength ratio (TSR) is more than 75% and 80% respectively for both mixes. Nanosilica with WMA has more resistant to temperature susceptibility, moisture susceptibility and short term aging than NSMB.

Keywords: HMA, nanosilica, NSMB, temperature, TSR, UMB, WMA.

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Authors: S. Larbi, R. Bensaada, S. Djebali, A. Bilek

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The manufacture of composite parts is a major issue in many industrial domains. Polymer composite materials are ideal for structural applications where high strength-to-weight and stiffness-to-weight ratios are required. However, exposition to extreme environment conditions (temperature, humidity) affects mechanical properties of organic composite materials and lead to an undesirable degradation. Aging mechanisms in organic matrix are very diverse and vary according to the polymer and the aging conditions such as temperature, humidity etc. This paper studies the hygrothermal aging effect on the mechanical properties of fiber reinforced plastics laminates at 40 °C in different environment exposure. Two composite materials are used to conduct the study (carbon fiber/epoxy and glass fiber/vinyl ester with two stratifications for both the materials [904/04] and [454/04]). The experimental procedure includes a mechanical characterization of the materials in a virgin state and exposition of specimens to two environments (seawater and demineralized water). Absorption kinetics for the two materials and both the stratifications are determined. Three-point bending test is performed on the aged materials in order to determine the hygrothermal effect on the mechanical properties of the materials.

Keywords: FRP laminates, hygrothermal aging, mechanical properties, theory of laminates.

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Authors: Hisham Md Suhadi, Faaizah Shahbodin, Jamaluddin Hashim

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The study is the way to identify the problems that occur in organizing short course’s lifelong learning in the information and communication technology (ICT) education which are faced by the lecturer and staff at the Mara Skill Institute and Industrial Training Institute in Pahang Malaysia. The important aspects of these issues are classified to five which are selecting the courses administrative. Fifty lecturers and staff were selected as a respondent. The sample is selected by using the non-random sampling method purpose sampling. The questionnaire is used as a research instrument and divided into five main parts. All the data that gain from the questionnaire are analyzed by using the SPSS in term of mean, standard deviation and percentage. The findings showed, there are the problems occur in organizing the short course for lifelong learning in ICT education.

Keywords: Lifelong education, information and communication technology (ICT), short course, ICT education, courses administrative.

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Authors: Shumani Ramuhaheli, Christopher C. Enweremadu, Hilary L. Rutto

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In this study, biodiesel from used cooking oil was produced as purified by washing with water (water wash) and amberlite (dry wash). The work presents the results of short term tests on performance characteristics of diesel engine using both biodiesel-fuel samples. In this investigation, the water wash biodiesel and dry wash biodiesel and diesel were compared for performance using a four-cylinder diesel engine. The torque, brake power, specific fuel consumption and brake thermal efficiency were analyzed. The tests showed that in all cases, dry wash biodiesel performed marginally poorer compared to water wash biodiesel. Except for brake thermal efficiency, diesel fuel had better engine performance characteristics compared to the biodiesel-fuel samples. According to these results, dry washing of biodiesel has a marginal effect on engine performance.

Keywords: Biodiesel, engine performance, used cooking oil, water wash, dry wash.

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Authors: Jonmichael A. Weaver, David A. Miller

Abstract:

Ultra High Molecular Weight Polyethylene (UHMWPE) presents several distinct advantages as a material with a high strength to weight ratio, durability, and neutron stability. Understanding the change in the mechanical performance of UHMWPE due to environmental exposure is key to safety for future applications. Dyneema® HB-210, a 15 µm diameter UHMWPE multi-filament fiber laid up in a polyurethane matrix in [0/ 90]2, with a thickness of 0.17 mm is compared to the same fiber and orientation system, HB-212, with a rubber-based matrix under UV aging conditions. UV aging tests according to ASTM-G154 were performed on both HB-210 and HB-212 to interrogate the change in mechanical properties, as measured through dynamic mechanical analysis and imaged using a scanning electron microscope. These results showed a decrease in both the storage modulus and loss modulus of the aged material compared to the unaged, even though the tan δ slightly increased. Material degradation occurred at a higher rate in Dyneema® HB-212 compared to HB-210. The HB-210 was characterized for the effects of 100 hours of UV aging via dynamic mechanical analysis. Scanning electron microscope images were taken of the HB-210 and HB-212 to identify the primary damage mechanisms in the matrix. Embrittlement and matrix spall were the products of prolonged UV exposure and erosion, resulting in decreased mechanical properties.

Keywords: Composite materials, material characterization, UV aging, UHMWPE.

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Authors: Ajay Shekhar Pandey, D. Singh, S. K. Sinha

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A clustering based technique has been developed and implemented for Short Term Load Forecasting, in this article. Formulation has been done using Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) as an objective function. Data Matrix and cluster size are optimization variables. Model designed, uses two temperature variables. This is compared with six input Radial Basis Function Neural Network (RBFNN) and Fuzzy Inference Neural Network (FINN) for the data of the same system, for same time period. The fuzzy inference system has the network structure and the training procedure of a neural network which initially creates a rule base from existing historical load data. It is observed that the proposed clustering based model is giving better forecasting accuracy as compared to the other two methods. Test results also indicate that the RBFNN can forecast future loads with accuracy comparable to that of proposed method, where as the training time required in the case of FINN is much less.

Keywords: Load forecasting, clustering, fuzzy inference.

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Authors: Seok Hong Min, Tae Kwon Ha

Abstract:

Phase equilibria of AZ91D Mg alloys for nonflammable use, containing Ca and Y, were carried out by using FactSage® and FTLite database, which revealed that solid solution treatment could be performed at temperatures from 400 to 450oC. Solid solution treatment of AZ91D Mg alloy without Ca and Y was successfully conducted at 420oC and supersaturated microstructure with all beta phase resolved into matrix was obtained. In the case of AZ91D Mg alloy with some Ca and Y; however, a little amount of intermetallic particles were observed after solid solution treatment. After solid solution treatment, each alloy was annealed at temperatures of 180 and 200oC for time intervals from 1 min to 48 hrs and hardness of each condition was measured by micro-Vickers method. Peak aging conditions were deduced as at the temperature of 200oC for 10 hrs.

Keywords: Mg alloy, AZ91D, nonflammable alloy, phase equilibrium, peak aging.

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Authors: Jale Çatak, Bayram Yılmaz, Mustafa Ozilgen

Abstract:

The second law muscle work efficiency is obtained by multiplying the metabolic and mechanical work efficiencies. Thermodynamic analyses are carried out with 19 sets of arms and legs exercise data which were obtained from the healthy young people. These data are used to simulate the changes occurring during aging. The muscle work efficiency decreases with aging as a result of the reduction of the metabolic energy generation in the mitochondria. The reduction of the mitochondrial energy efficiency makes it difficult to carry out the maintenance of the muscle tissue, which in turn causes a decline of the muscle work efficiency. When the muscle attempts to produce more work, entropy generation and exergy destruction increase. Increasing exergy destruction may be regarded as the result of the deterioration of the muscles. When the exergetic efficiency is 0.42, exergy destruction becomes 1.49 folds of the work performance. This proportionality becomes 2.50 and 5.21 folds when the exergetic efficiency decreases to 0.30 and 0.17 respectively.

Keywords: Aging mitochondria, entropy generation, exergy destruction, muscle work performance, second law efficiency.

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Authors: M. Ilyas, M. W. Siddiqi

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This study employs auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds approach to cointegration for long run and errorcorrection modeling (ECM) for short run analysis to examine the relationship between revenue gap and economic growth for Pakistan using annual time series data over the period 1980 to 2008. The short and long run results indicate that revenue gap is statistical significant and negatively effect economic growth. The significant and negative coefficient of error correction term in ECM indicates that after a shock, the long rum equilibrium will again converge towards equilibrium about 10.406 percent within a year.

Keywords: ARDL cointegration, Economic Growth, RevenueGap, Pakistan.

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Authors: A. J. Al-Shareef, E. A. Mohamed, E. Al-Judaibi

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Load forecasting has become in recent years one of the major areas of research in electrical engineering. Most traditional forecasting models and artificial intelligence neural network techniques have been tried out in this task. Artificial neural networks (ANN) have lately received much attention, and a great number of papers have reported successful experiments and practical tests. This article presents the development of an ANN-based short-term load forecasting model with improved generalization technique for the Regional Power Control Center of Saudi Electricity Company, Western Operation Area (SEC-WOA). The proposed ANN is trained with weather-related data and historical electric load-related data using the data from the calendar years 2001, 2002, 2003, and 2004 for training. The model tested for one week at five different seasons, typically, winter, spring, summer, Ramadan and fall seasons, and the mean absolute average error for one hour-ahead load forecasting found 1.12%.

Keywords: Artificial neural networks, short-term load forecasting, back propagation.

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Authors: Munehiro Iwami

Abstract:

A property is persistent if for any many-sorted term rewriting system , has the property if and only if term rewriting system , which results from by omitting its sort information, has the property. Zantema showed that termination is persistent for term rewriting systems without collapsing or duplicating rules. In this paper, we show that the Zantema's result can be extended to term rewriting systems on ordered sorts, i.e., termination is persistent for term rewriting systems on ordered sorts without collapsing, decreasing or duplicating rules. Furthermore we give the example as application of this result. Also we obtain that completeness is persistent for this class of term rewriting systems.

Keywords: Theory of computing, Model-based reasoning, term rewriting system, termination

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Authors: Ruili Zhou, Yuesheng Zhu

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In this paper, a new robust audio fingerprinting algorithm in MP3 compressed domain is proposed with high robustness to time scale modification (TSM). Instead of simply employing short-term information of the MP3 stream, the new algorithm extracts the long-term features in MP3 compressed domain by using the modulation frequency analysis. Our experiment has demonstrated that the proposed method can achieve a hit rate of above 95% in audio retrieval and resist the attack of 20% TSM. It has lower bit error rate (BER) performance compared to the other algorithms. The proposed algorithm can also be used in other compressed domains, such as AAC.

Keywords: Audio Fingerprinting, MP3, Modulation Frequency, TSM

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