Search results for: Technological forecasting. S curves

Authors: Turan Çalban, Nursel Keskin, Sabri Çolak, Soner Kuşlu

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Gypsum (CaSO4.2H2O) is a mineral that is found in large quantities in the Turkey and in the World. In this study, the dissolution of this mineral in the diammonium hydrogen phosphate solutions has been studied. The dissolution and dissolution kinetics of gypsum in diammonium hydrogen phosphate solutions will be useful for evaluating of solid wastes containing gypsum. Parameters such as diammonium hydrogen phosphate concentration, temperature and stirring speed affecting on the dissolution rate of the gypsum in diammonium hydrogen phosphate solutions were investigated. In experimental studies have researched effectiveness of the selected parameters. The dissolution of gypsum were examined in two parts at low and high temperatures. The experimental results were successfully correlated by linear regression using Statistica program. Dissolution curves were evaluated shrinking core models for solidfluid systems. The activation energy was found to be 34.58 kJ/mol and 44.45 kJ/mol for the low and the high temperatures. The dissolution of gypsum was controlled by chemical reaction both low temperatures and high temperatures.

Keywords: Diammonium hydrogen phosphate, Dissolution, Gypsum, Kinetics.

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Authors: Josip Visković, Josip Arnerić, Ante Rozga

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Based on the fact that volatility is time varying in high frequency data and that periods of high volatility tend to cluster, the most successful and popular models in modeling time varying volatility are GARCH type models. When financial returns exhibit sudden jumps that are due to structural breaks, standard GARCH models show high volatility persistence, i.e. integrated behavior of the conditional variance. In such situations models in which the parameters are allowed to change over time are more appropriate. This paper compares different GARCH models in terms of their ability to describe structural changes in returns caused by financial crisis at stock markets of six selected central and east European countries. The empirical analysis demonstrates that Markov regime switching GARCH model resolves the problem of excessive persistence and outperforms uni-regime GARCH models in forecasting volatility when sudden switching occurs in response to financial crisis.

Keywords: Central and east European countries, financial crisis, Markov switching GARCH model, transition probabilities.

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Authors: E. Pop, M. Barbos

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Using mobile Internet access technologies and eservices, various economic agents can efficiently offer their products or services to a large number of clients. With the support of mobile communications networks, the clients can have access to e-services, anywhere and anytime. This is a base to establish a convergence of technological and financial interests of mobile operators, software developers, mobile terminals producers and e-content providers. In this paper, a client server system is presented, using 3G, EDGE, mobile terminals, for Stock Exchange e-services access.

Keywords: Mobile communications, e-services access, stockexchange.

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Authors: Guray Arslan, Riza S. O. Keskin

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Numerical investigations were conducted to study the influence of flexural reinforcement ratio on the diagonal cracking strength and ultimate shear strength of reinforced concrete (RC) beams without stirrups. Three-dimensional nonlinear finite element analyses (FEAs) of the beams with flexural reinforcement ratios ranging from 0.58% to 2.20% subjected to a mid-span concentrated load were carried out. It is observed that the load-deflection and loadstrain curves obtained from the numerical analyses agree with those obtained from the experiments. It is concluded that flexural reinforcement ratio has a significant effect on the shear strength and deflection capacity of RC beams without stirrups. The predictions of diagonal cracking strength and ultimate shear strength of beams obtained by using the equations defined by a number of codes and researchers are compared with each other and with the experimental values.

Keywords: Finite element, flexural reinforcement, reinforced concrete beam, shear strength.

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Authors: Ugur Akyol, Dinçer Akal, Ahmet Cihan, Kamil Kahveci

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This study is concerned with the investigation of the suitability of several empirical and semi-empirical drying models available in the literature to define drying behavior of viscose yarn bobbins. For this purpose, firstly, experimental drying behaviour of viscose bobbins was determined on an experimental dryer setup which was designed and manufactured based on hot-air bobbin dryers used in textile industry. Afterwards, drying models considered were fitted to the experimentally obtained moisture ratios. Drying parameters were drying temperature and bobbin diameter. The fit was performed by selecting the values for constants in the models in such a way that these values make the sum of the squared differences between the experimental and the model results for moisture ratio minimum. Suitability of fitting was specified as comparing the correlation coefficient, standard error and mean square deviation. The results show that the most appropriate model in describing the drying curves of viscose bobbins is the Page model.

Keywords: Drying, moisture ratio, Page model, viscose

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Authors: Rusudan Kinkladze, Guguli Kurashvili, Ketevan Chitaladze

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Foreign direct investment is a driving force in the development of the interdependent national economies, and the study and analysis of investments is an urgent problem. It is particularly important for transitional economies, such as Georgia, and the study and analysis of investments is an urgent problem. Consequently, the goal of the research is the study and analysis of direct foreign investments in Georgia, and identification and forecasting of modern trends, and covers the period of 2006-2015. The study uses the methods of statistical observation, grouping and analysis, the methods of analytical indicators of time series, trend identification and the predicted values are calculated, as well as various literary and Internet sources relevant to the research. The findings showed that modern investment policy In Georgia is favorable for domestic as well as foreign investors. Georgia is still a net importer of investments. In 2015, the top 10 investing countries was led by Azerbaijan, United Kingdom and Netherlands, and the largest share of FDIs were allocated in the transport and communication sector; the financial sector was the second, followed by the health and social work sector, and the same trend will continue in the future. 

Keywords: Foreign Direct Investments, methods, statistics, analysis.

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Authors: S. Zouari, H. Daoud, M. Loulou, P. Loumeau, N. Masmoudi

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A wideband 2-1-1 cascaded ΣΔ modulator with a single-bit quantizer in the two first stages and a 4-bit quantizer in the final stage is developed. To reduce sensitivity of digital-to-analog converter (DAC) nonlinearities in the feedback of the last stage, dynamic element matching (DEM) is introduced. This paper presents two modelling approaches: The first is MATLAB description and the second is VHDL-AMS modelling of the proposed architecture and exposes some high-level-simulation results allowing a behavioural study. The detail of both ideal and non-ideal behaviour modelling are presented. Then, the study of the effect of building blocks nonidealities is presented; especially the influences of nonlinearity, finite operational amplifier gain, amplifier slew rate limitation and capacitor mismatch. A VHDL-AMS description presents a good solution to predict system-s performances and can provide sensitivity curves giving the impact of nonidealities on the system performance.

Keywords: behavioural study, DAC nonlinearity, DEM, ΣΔ modulator, VHDL-AMS modelling.

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Authors: K. Kaabeche-Djerafi, N. Bendjaballah-Lalaoui, S. Semra

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The paper aims at investigating influence of medium capacity on linear adsorbed solute dispersion into chemically heterogeneous fixed beds. A discrete chemical heterogeneity distribution is considered in the one-dimensional advectivedispersive equation. The partial differential equation is solved using finite volumes method based on the Adam-Bashforth algorithm. Increased dispersion is estimated by comparing breakthrough curves second order moments and keeping identical hydrodynamic properties. As a result, dispersion increase due to chemical heterogeneity depends on the column size and surprisingly on the solid capacity. The more intense capacity is, the more important solute dispersion is. Medium length which is known to favour this effect vanishing according to the linear adsorption in fixed bed seems to create nonmonotonous variation of dispersion because of the heterogeneity. This nonmonotonous behaviour is also favoured by high capacities.

Keywords: linear adsorption; chemical heterogeneity;dispersion; fixed bed; porous media

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Authors: Y. Mohammadi, H. M. Ghasemzadeh, T. B. Talari, M. A. Ghorbani

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Concrete pavement has superior durability and longer structural life than asphalt pavement. Concrete pavement requires less maintenance compared to asphalt pavement which requires maintenance and major rehabilitation. Use of the concrete pavement has been grown over the past decade in developing countries. Fibre reinforced concrete (FRC) has been successfully used in design of concrete pavement in past decade. In this research, the effect of fibre volume fraction in modulus of rupture, load-deflection, equivalent flexural strength (fe,3) and the equivalent flexural strength ratio (Re,3) has been used in different fibre volume fraction. Crimped-type flat steel fibre of size 50 x 2.0 x 0.6 mm was used with 1.0%, 1.5% and 2.0% volume fraction. Beam specimens of size 500 x 100 x 100 mm were used for flexural as well as with JCI method for analysis flexural toughness, equivalent flexural strength. It was obtained as the 2% fibre volume fractions; reduce 45% of the concrete pavement thickness.

Keywords: Concrete pavement, Equivalent flexural strength, Fibre, Load-deflection curves.

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Authors: Dmitriy Yu. Korulkin, Ravshan M. Nuraliev, Raissa A. Muzychkina

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In this research paper were investigated the main regularities of a radical bromination reaction of decalin. There had been studied the temperature effect, durations of reaction, frequency rate of process, a ratio of initial components, type and number of the initiator on decalin bromination degree. There were specified optimum conditions of synthesis of a perbromodecalin by the method of a decalin bromination. There are developed the technological flowchart of receiving a perbromodecalin and the mass balance of process on the first and the subsequent loadings of components. The results of research of antibacterial and antifungal activity of synthesized bromoderivatives have been represented.

Keywords: Decalin, optimum technology, perbromodecalin, radical bromination.

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Authors: O. A. Apampa, Y. A. Jimoh, K. A. Olonade

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The need to save time and cost of soil testing at the planning stage of road work has necessitated developing predictive models. This study proposes a model for predicting the dry density of lateritic soils stabilized with corn cob ash (CCA) and blended cement - CCA. Lateritic soil was first stabilized with CCA at 1.5, 3.0, 4.5 and 6% of the weight of soil and then stabilized with the same proportions as replacement for cement. Dry density, specific gravity, maximum degree of saturation and moisture content were determined for each stabilized soil specimen, following standard procedure. Polynomial equations containing alpha and beta parameters for CCA and blended CCA-cement were developed. Experimental values were correlated with the values predicted from the Matlab curve fitting tool, and the Solver function of Microsoft Excel 2010. The correlation coefficient (R2) of 0.86 was obtained indicating that the model could be accepted in predicting the maximum dry density of CCA stabilized soils to facilitate quick decision making in roadworks.

Keywords: Corn cob ash, lateritic soil, stabilization, maximum dry density, moisture content.

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Authors: Taweechai Nuntawisuttiwong, Natasha Dejdumrong

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Geometric modeling plays an important role in the constructions and manufacturing of curve, surface and solid modeling. Their algorithms are critically important not only in the automobile, ship and aircraft manufacturing business, but are also absolutely necessary in a wide variety of modern applications, e.g., robotics, optimization, computer vision, data analytics and visualization. The calculation and display of geometric objects can be accomplished by these six techniques: Polynomial basis, Recursive, Iterative, Coefficient matrix, Polar form approach and Pyramidal algorithms. In this research, the coefficient matrix (simply called monomial form approach) will be used to model polynomial rectangular patches, i.e., Said-Ball, Wang-Ball, DP, Dejdumrong and NB1 surfaces. Some examples of the monomial forms for these surface modeling are illustrated in many aspects, e.g., construction, derivatives, model transformation, degree elevation and degress reduction.

Keywords: Monomial form, rectangular surfaces, CAGD curves, monomial matrix applications.

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Authors: Ε. Giovanis

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The purpose of this paper is to present two different approaches of financial distress pre-warning models appropriate for risk supervisors, investors and policy makers. We examine a sample of the financial institutions and electronic companies of Taiwan Security Exchange (TSE) market from 2002 through 2008. We present a binary logistic regression with paned data analysis. With the pooled binary logistic regression we build a model including more variables in the regression than with random effects, while the in-sample and out-sample forecasting performance is higher in random effects estimation than in pooled regression. On the other hand we estimate an Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) with Gaussian and Generalized Bell (Gbell) functions and we find that ANFIS outperforms significant Logit regressions in both in-sample and out-of-sample periods, indicating that ANFIS is a more appropriate tool for financial risk managers and for the economic policy makers in central banks and national statistical services.

Keywords: ANFIS, Binary logistic regression, Financialdistress, Panel data

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Authors: Do Hoai Nam, Keiko Udo, Akira Mano

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This paper presents the combination of different precipitation data sets and the distributed hydrological model, in order to examine the flood runoff reproductivity of scattered observation catchments. The precipitation data sets were obtained from observation using rain-gages, satellite based estimate (TRMM), and numerical weather prediction model (NWP), then were coupled with the super tank model. The case study was conducted in three basins (small, medium, and large size) located in Central Vietnam. Calculated hydrographs based on ground observation rainfall showed best fit to measured stream flow, while those obtained from TRMM and NWP showed high uncertainty of peak discharges. However, calculated hydrographs using the adjusted rainfield depicted a promising alternative for the application of TRMM and NWP in flood modeling for scattered observation catchments, especially for the extension of forecast lead time.

Keywords: Flood forecast, rainfall-runoff model, satellite rainfall estimate, numerical weather prediction, quantitative precipitation forecasting.

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Authors: Nasim Daemi, Gholam Hossein Majzoobi

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In this work, bending fatigue life of notched specimens with various notch geometries and dimensions is investigated by experiment and Manson-Caffin theoretical method. In this theoretical method, fatigue life of notched specimens is calculated using the fatigue life obtained from the experiments for plain specimens (without notch). Three notch geometries including ∪-shape, ∨-shape and C -shape notches are considered in this investigation. The experiments are conducted on a rotary bending Moore machine. The specimens are made of a low carbon steel alloy, which has wide application in industry. The stress- life curves are captured for all notched specimen by experiment. The results indicate that Manson-Caffin analytical method cannot adequately predict the fatigue life of notched specimen. However, it seems that the difference between the experiments and Manson-Caffin predictions can be compensated by a proportional factor.

Keywords: fatigue life, Mason-Caffin method, notchedspecimen, stress-life curve.

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Authors: S. Rao, S. Khavtasi, C. Chassot, N. Van Wambeke, F. Armando, S. P. Romano, T. Castaldi

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The talks about technological convergence had been around for almost twenty years. Today Internet made it possible. And this is not only technical evolution. The way it changed our lives reflected in variety of applications, services and technologies used in day-to-day life. Such benefits imposed even more requirements on heterogeneous and unreliable IP networks. Current paper outlines QoS management system developed in the NetQoS [1] project. It describes an overall architecture of management system for heterogeneous networks and proposes automated multi-layer QoS management. Paper focuses on the structure of the most crucial modules of the system that enable autonomous and multi-layer provisioning and dynamic adaptation.

Keywords: Automated QoS management, multi-layerprovisioning and adaptation, QoS, QoE.

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Authors: A. M. El Ansary, A. A. El Damatty, A. O. Nassef

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The aim of the current study is to develop a numerical tool that is capable of achieving an optimum shape and design of hyperbolic cooling towers based on coupling a non-linear finite element model developed in-house and a genetic algorithm optimization technique. The objective function is set to be the minimum weight of the tower. The geometric modeling of the tower is represented by means of B-spline curves. The finite element method is applied to model the elastic buckling behaviour of a tower subjected to wind pressure and dead load. The study is divided into two main parts. The first part investigates the optimum shape of the tower corresponding to minimum weight assuming constant thickness. The study is extended in the second part by introducing the shell thickness as one of the design variables in order to achieve an optimum shape and design. Design, functionality and practicality constraints are applied.

Keywords: B-splines, Cooling towers, Finite element, Genetic algorithm, Optimization

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Authors: M. B. Kime

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Mass flow measurement is the basis of most technoeconomic formulations in the chemical industry. This calls for reliable and accurate detection of mass flow. Flow measurement laboratory experiments were conducted using various instruments. These consisted of orifice plates, various sized rotameters, wet gas meter and soap bubble meter. This work was aimed at evaluating appropriate operating conditions and accuracy of the aforementioned devices. The experimental data collected were compared to theoretical predictions from Bernoulli’s equation and calibration curves supplied by the instrument’s manufacturers. The results obtained showed that rotameters were more reliable for measuring high and low flow rates; while soap-bubble meters and wet-gas meters were found to be suitable for measuring low flow rates. The laboratory procedures and findings of the actual work can assist engineering students and professionals in conducting their flow measurement laboratory test work.

Keywords: Flow measurement, orifice plates, rotameters, wet gas meter, soap bubble meter.

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Authors: Ying Shang, Chencheng Wang

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The wind field is the main driving factor for the spread of forest fires. For the simulation results of forest fire spread to be more accurate, it is necessary to obtain more detailed wind field data. Therefore, this paper studied the mountainous fine wind field simulation method coupled with WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting Model) and CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) to realize the numerical simulation of the wind field in a mountainous area with a scale of 30 m and a small measurement error. Local topographical changes have an important impact on the wind field. Based on the Rothermel fire spread model, a forest fire in Idaho in the western United States was simulated. The historical data proved that the simulation results had a good accuracy. They showed that the fire spread rate will decrease rapidly with time and then reach a steady state. After reaching a steady state, the fire spread growth area will not only be affected by the slope, but will also show a significant quadratic linear positive correlation with the wind speed change.

Keywords: Wind field, numerical simulation, forest fire spread, fire behavior model, complex terrain.

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Authors: Marco Raciti Castelli, Stefano De Betta, Ernesto Benini

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This paper presents a mean for reducing the torque variation during the revolution of a vertical-axis wind turbine (VAWT) by increasing the blade number. For this purpose, twodimensional CDF analysis have been performed on a straight-bladed Darreius-type rotor. After describing the computational model, a complete campaign of simulations based on full RANS unsteady calculations is proposed for a three, four and five-bladed rotor architecture characterized by a NACA 0025 airfoil. For each proposed rotor configuration, flow field characteristics are investigated at several values of tip speed ratio, allowing a quantification of the influence of blade number on flow geometric features and dynamic quantities, such as rotor torque and power. Finally, torque and power curves are compared for the analyzed architectures, achieving a quantification of the effect of blade number on overall rotor performance.

Keywords: CFD, VAWT, NACA 0021, blade number

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Authors: M. Najafi, S. Bab, F. Rahimi Dehgolan

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The motion of an axially moving beam with rotating prismatic joint with a tip mass on the end is analyzed to investigate the nonlinear vibration and dynamic stability of the beam. The beam is moving with a harmonic axially and rotating velocity about a constant mean velocity. A time-dependent partial differential equation and boundary conditions with the aid of the Hamilton principle are derived to describe the beam lateral deflection. After the partial differential equation is discretized by the Galerkin method, the method of multiple scales is applied to obtain analytical solutions. Frequency response curves are plotted for the super harmonic resonances of the first and the second modes. The effects of non-linear term and mean velocity are investigated on the steady state response of the axially moving beam. The results are validated with numerical simulations.

Keywords: Axially moving beam, Galerkin method, non-linear vibration, super harmonic resonances.

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Authors: Williams S. Ebhota, Freddie L. Inambao

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This study investigates the use of centrifugal casting method to fabricate functionally graded aluminium A356 Alloy and A356-10%SiCp composite for hydro turbine bucket application. The study includes the design and fabrication of a permanent mould. The mould was put into use and the buckets of A356 Alloy and A356-10%SiCp composite were cast, cut and machined into specimens. Some specimens were given T6 heat treatment and the specimens were prepared for different examinations accordingly. The SiCp particles were found to be more at inner periphery of the bucket. The maximum hardness of As-Cast A356 and A356-10%SiCp composite was recorded at the inner periphery to be 60 BRN and 95BRN, respectively. And these values were appreciated to 98BRN and 122BRN for A356 alloy and A356-10%SiCp composite, respectively. It was observed that the ultimate tensile stress and yield tensile stress prediction curves show the same trend.

Keywords: A356 alloy, A356-10%SiCp composite, centrifugal casting, pelton bucket, turbine blade.

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Authors: Osama A. Terfas

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The development of shape and size of a crack in a pressure vessel under uniaxial and biaxial loadings is important in fitness-for-service evaluations such as leak-before-break. In this work finite element modelling was used to evaluate the mean stress and the J-integral around a front of a surface-breaking crack. A procedure on the basis of ductile tearing resistance curves of high and low constrained fracture mechanics geometries was developed to estimate the amount of ductile crack extension for surface-breaking cracks and to show the evolution of the initial crack shape. The results showed non-uniform constraint levels and crack driving forces around the crack front at large deformation levels. It was also shown that initially semi-elliptical surface cracks under biaxial load developed higher constraint levels around the crack front than in uniaxial tension. However similar crack shapes were observed with more extensions associated with cracks under biaxial loading.

Keywords: biaxial load, crack shape, fracture toughness, surface crack, uniaxial load.

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Authors: L. R. Valencia Pérez, J. M. Peña Aguilar, A. Lamadrid Álvarez, A. Pastrana Palma, H. F. Valencia Pérez, M. Vivanco Vargas

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This work proposes a Cooperation-Competitive (Coopetitive) approach that allows coordinated work among the Secretary of Public Education (SEP), the Autonomous University of Querétaro (UAQ) and government funds from National Council for Science and Technology (CONACYT) or some other international organizations. To work on an overall knowledge transfer strategy with e-learning over the Cloud, where experts in junior high and high school education, working in multidisciplinary teams, perform analysis, evaluation, design, production, validation and knowledge transfer at large scale using a Cloud Computing platform. Allowing teachers and students to have all the information required to ensure a homologated nationally knowledge of topics such as mathematics, statistics, chemistry, history, ethics, civism, etc. This work will start with a pilot test in Spanish and initially in two regional dialects Otomí and Náhuatl. Otomí has more than 285,000 speaking indigenes in Queretaro and Mexico´s central region. Náhuatl is number one indigenous dialect spoken in Mexico with more than 1,550,000 indigenes. The phase one of the project takes into account negotiations with indigenous tribes from different regions, and the Information and Communication technologies to deliver the knowledge to the indigenous schools in their native dialect. The methodology includes the following main milestones: Identification of the indigenous areas where Otomí and Náhuatl are the spoken dialects, research with the SEP the location of actual indigenous schools, analysis and inventory or current schools conditions, negotiation with tribe chiefs, analysis of the technological communication requirements to reach the indigenous communities, identification and inventory of local teachers technology knowledge, selection of a pilot topic, analysis of actual student competence with traditional education system, identification of local translators, design of the e-learning platform, design of the multimedia resources and storage strategy for “Cloud Computing”, translation of the topic to both dialects, Indigenous teachers training, pilot test, course release, project follow up, analysis of student requirements for the new technological platform, definition of a new and improved proposal with greater reach in topics and regions. Importance of phase one of the project is multiple, it includes the proposal of a working technological scheme, focusing in the cultural impact in Mexico so that indigenous tribes can improve their knowledge about new forms of crop improvement, home storage technologies, proven home remedies for common diseases, ways of preparing foods containing major nutrients, disclose strengths and weaknesses of each region, communicating through cloud computing platforms offering regional products and opening communication spaces for inter-indigenous cultural exchange.

Keywords: Mexicans indigenous tribes, education, knowledge transfer, cloud computing, Otomí, Náhuatl, language.

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Authors: Elvira S. Castillo, Surupa Shaw

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This paper explores advanced applications of fluid mechanics in the context of sustainable energy. By examining the integration of fluid dynamics with renewable energy technologies, the research uncovers previously underutilized strategies for improving efficiency. Through theoretical analyses, the study demonstrates how fluid mechanics can be harnessed to optimize renewable energy systems. The findings contribute to expanding knowledge in sustainable energy by offering practical insights and methodologies for future research and technological advancements to address global energy challenges.

Keywords: Fluid mechanics, sustainable energy, energy efficiency, green energy.

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Authors: Nadezhda Nikolaeva, Tatyana Alexandrova, Alexandr Alexandrov

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Processing of high-silicon bauxite on the base of the traditional clinkering method is related to high power consumption and capital investments, which makes production of alumina from those ores non-competitive in terms of basic economic showings. For these reasons, development of technological solutions enabling to process bauxites with various chemical and mineralogical structures efficiently with low level of thermal power consumption is important. Flow sheet of the studies on washability of ores from the Timanskoe and the Severo-Onezhskoe deposits is on the base of the flotation method.

Keywords: Low-quality bauxite, resource-saving technology, optimization, aluminum, conditioning of composition, separation characteristics.

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Authors: S. Loumi, H. Merrad, F. Alilat, B. Sansal

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In this article, we propose a methodology for the characterization of the suspended matter along Algiers-s bay. An approach by multi layers perceptron (MLP) with training by back propagation of the gradient optimized by the algorithm of Levenberg Marquardt (LM) is used. The accent was put on the choice of the components of the base of training where a comparative study made for four methods: Random and three alternatives of classification by K-Means. The samples are taken from suspended matter image, obtained by analytical model based on polynomial regression by taking account of in situ measurements. The mask which selects the zone of interest (water in our case) was carried out by using a multi spectral classification by ISODATA algorithm. To improve the result of classification, a cleaning of this mask was carried out using the tools of mathematical morphology. The results of this study presented in the forms of curves, tables and of images show the founded good of our methodology.

Keywords: Classification K-means, mathematical morphology, neural network MLP, remote sensing, suspended particulate matter

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Authors: M. Ndaw, G. Mendy, S. Ouya

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Risk management in banking sector is a key issue linked to financial system stability and its importance has been elevated by technological developments and emergence of new financial instruments. In this paper, we improve the model previously defined for quantifying internal control impact on banking risks by automatizing the residual criticality estimation step of FMECA. For this, we defined three equations and a maturity coefficient to obtain a mathematical model which is tested on all banking processes and type of risks. The new model allows an optimal assessment of residual criticality and improves the correlation rate that has become 98%.

Keywords: Risk, Control, Banking, FMECA.

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Authors: Petr Seďa

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This paper deals with heterogeneous autoregressive models of realized volatility (HAR-RV models) on high-frequency data of stock indices in the USA. Its aim is to capture the behavior of three groups of market participants trading on a daily, weekly and monthly basis and assess their role in predicting the daily realized volatility. The benefits of this work lies mainly in the application of heterogeneous autoregressive models of realized volatility on stock indices in the USA with a special aim to analyze an impact of the global financial crisis on applied models forecasting performance. We use three data sets, the first one from the period before the global financial crisis occurred in the years 2006-2007, the second one from the period when the global financial crisis fully hit the U.S. financial market in 2008-2009 years, and the last period was defined over 2010-2011 years. The model output indicates that estimated realized volatility in the market is very much determined by daily traders and in some cases excludes the impact of those market participants who trade on monthly basis.

Keywords: Global financial crisis, heterogeneous autoregressive model, in-sample forecast, realized volatility, U.S. stock market.

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Authors: Yang Luo, Beibei Wang

Abstract:

In this paper, we present a design methodology of lightweight register transfer level (RTL) hardware threat implemented based on a MAX II FPGA platform. The dynamic power consumed by the toggling of the various bit of registers as well as the dynamic power consumed per unit of logic circuits were analyzed. The hardware threat was designed taking advantage of the differences in dynamic power consumed per unit of logic circuits to hide the transfer information. The experiment result shows that the register hardware threat was successfully implemented by using different dynamic power consumed per unit of logic circuits to hide the key information of DES encryption module. It needs more than 100000 sample curves to reduce the background noise by comparing the sample space when it completely meets the time alignment requirement. In additional, an external trigger signal is playing a very important role to detect the hardware threat in this experiment.

Keywords: Side-channel analysis, hardware threat, register transfer level, dynamic power.

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