Search results for: Reactive generation capability curve and Reactive power ancillary service.
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 5744

Search results for: Reactive generation capability curve and Reactive power ancillary service.

5234 Hydrological Method to Evaluate Environmental Flow (Case Study: Gharasou River, Ardabil)

Authors: Mehdi Fuladipanah, Mehdi Jorabloo

Abstract:

Water flow management is one of the most important parts of river engineering. Non-uniformity distribution of rainfall and various flow demand with unreasonable flow management will be caused destroyed of river ecosystem. Then, it is very serious to determine ecosystem flow requirement. In this paper, Flow duration curve indices method which has hydrological based was used to evaluate environmental flow in Gharasou River, Ardabil, Iran. Using flow duration curve, Q90 and Q95 for different return periods were calculated. Their magnitude were determined as 1-day, 3-day, 7-day and 30 day. According the second method, hydraulic alteration indices often had low and medium range. In order to maintain river at an acceptable ecological condition, minimum daily discharge of index Q95 is 0.7 m3.s-1.

Keywords: Ardabil, Environmental flow, Flow Duration Curve, Gharasou River.

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5233 The Study on Service-oriented Encapsulating Methods of Legacy Systems

Authors: Chao Qi, Xiaoyan Su, Zhan Mao, Xuan Qi

Abstract:

At present, web Service is the first choice to reuse the legacy system for the implementation of SOA. According to the status of the implementation of SOA and the status of the legacy systems, we propose four encapsulating strategies. Base on the strategies, we proposal the service-oriented encapsulating framework, the legacy system can be encapsulated by the service-oriented encapsulating layer in three aspects, communication protocols, data and program. The reuse rate of the legacy systems can be increased by using this framework

Keywords: Legacy system, service-oriented encapsulating, SOA.

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5232 PSO-Based Planning of Distribution Systems with Distributed Generations

Authors: Amin Hajizadeh, Ehsan Hajizadeh

Abstract:

This paper presents a multi-objective formulation for optimal siting and sizing of distributed generation (DG) resources in distribution systems in order to minimize the cost of power losses and energy not supplied. The implemented technique is based on particle swarm optimization (PSO) and weight method that employed to obtain the best compromise between these costs. Simulation results on 33-bus distribution test system are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed procedure.

Keywords: Distributed generation, distribution networks, particle swarm optimization, reliability, weight method

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5231 Suggestions for the Improvement of the Quality of Public Transportation Service in Campos,Brazil

Authors: D. I. De Souza, G. P. Azevedo, P. Duarte

Abstract:

In this paper the main objective is to analyze the quality of service of the bus companies operating in the city of Campos, located in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. This analysis, based on the opinion of the bus customers, will help to determine their degree of satisfaction with the service provided by the bus companies. The result of this assessment shows that the bus customers are displeased with the quality of service supplied by the bus companies. Therefore, it is necessary to identify alternative solutions to minimize the consequences of the main problems related to customers- dissatisfaction identified in our evaluation and to help the bus companies operating in Campos better fulfill their riders- needs.

Keywords: PubicTransportation, Quality of Service, Riders'Opinion, Bus Companies

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5230 Customer Loyalty and the Impacts of Service Quality:The Case of Five Star Hotels in Jordan

Authors: Al-Rousan, M. Ramzi, Badaruddin Mohamed

Abstract:

In the present Jordan hotels scenario, service quality is a vital competitive policy to keep customer support and build great base. Hotels are trying to win customer loyalty by providing enhanced quality services. This paper attempts to examine the impact of tourism service quality dimension in the Jordanian five star hotels. A total of 322 surveys were administrated to tourists who were staying at three branches Marriott hotel in Jordan. The results show that dimensions of service quality such as empathy, reliability, responsiveness and tangibility significantly predict customer loyalty. Specifically, among the dimension of tourism service quality, the most significant predictor of customer loyalty is tangibility. This paper implies that five star hotels in Jordan should also come forward and try their best to present better tourism service quality to win back their customers- loyalty.

Keywords: Tourism, Service Quality, Loyalty, Five Star hotels, Jordan.

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5229 A Review on Impacts of Grid-Connected PV System on Distribution Networks

Authors: Davud Mostafa Tobnaghi

Abstract:

This paper aims to investigate and emphasize the importance of the grid-connected photovoltaic (PV) systems regarding the intermittent nature of renewable generation, and the characterization of PV generation with regard to grid code compliance. The development of Photovoltaic systems and expansion plans relating to the futuristic in worldwide is elaborated. The most important impacts of grid connected photovoltaic systems on distribution networks as well as the Penetration level of PV system was investigated.

Keywords: Grid-connected photovoltaic system, distribution network, penetration levels, power quality.

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5228 Impact of the Operation and Infrastructure Parameters to the Railway Track Capacity

Authors: Martin Kendra, Jaroslav Mašek, Juraj Čamaj, Matej Babin

Abstract:

The railway transport is considered as a one of the most environmentally friendly mode of transport. With future prediction of increasing of freight transport there are lines facing problems with demanded capacity. Increase of the track capacity could be achieved by infrastructure constructive adjustments. The contribution shows how the travel time can be minimized and the track capacity increased by changing some of the basic infrastructure and operation parameters, for example, the minimal curve radius of the track, the number of tracks, or the usable track length at stations. Calculation of the necessary parameter changes is based on the fundamental physical laws applied to the train movement, and calculation of the occupation time is dependent on the changes of controlling the traffic between the stations.

Keywords: Curve radius, maximum curve speed, track mass capacity, reconstruction.

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5227 Dynamic Coupling Metrics for Service – Oriented Software

Authors: Pham Thi Quynh, Huynh Quyet Thang

Abstract:

Service-oriented systems have become popular and presented many advantages in develop and maintain process. The coupling is the most important attribute of services when they are integrated into a system. In this paper, we propose a suite of metrics to evaluate service-s quality according to its ability of coupling. We use the coupling metrics to measure the maintainability, reliability, testability, and reusability of services. Our proposed metrics are operated in run-time which bring more exact results.

Keywords: Dynamic coupling metric, SOA, web service, SOAP Extension.

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5226 On Method of Fundamental Solution for Nondestructive Testing

Authors: Jieer Wu, Zheshu Ma

Abstract:

Nondestructive testing in engineering is an inverse Cauchy problem for Laplace equation. In this paper the problem of nondestructive testing is expressed by a Laplace-s equation with third-kind boundary conditions. In order to find unknown values on the boundary, the method of fundamental solution is introduced and realized. Because of the ill-posedness of studied problems, the TSVD regularization technique in combination with L-curve criteria and Generalized Cross Validation criteria is employed. Numerical results are shown that the TSVD method combined with L-curve criteria is more efficient than the TSVD method combined with GCV criteria. The abstract goes here.

Keywords: ill-posed, TSVD, Laplace's equation, inverse problem, L-curve, Generalized Cross Validation.

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5225 Design and Performance Analysis of a Hydro-Power Rim-Driven Superconducting Synchronous Generator

Authors: A. Hassannia, S. Ramezani

Abstract:

The technology of superconductivity has developed in many power system devices such as transmission cable, transformer, current limiter, motor and generator. Superconducting wires can carry high density current without loss, which is the capability that is used to design the compact, lightweight and more efficient electrical machines. Superconducting motors have found applications in marine and air propulsion systems as well as superconducting generators are considered in low power hydraulic and wind generators. This paper presents a rim-driven superconducting synchronous generator for hydraulic power plant. The rim-driven concept improves the performance of hydro turbine. Furthermore, high magnetic field that is produced by superconducting windings allows replacing the rotor core. As a consequent, the volume and weight of the machine is decreased significantly. In this paper, a 1 MW coreless rim-driven superconducting synchronous generator is designed. Main performance characteristics of the proposed machine are then evaluated using finite elements method and compared to an ordinary similar size synchronous generator.

Keywords: Coreless machine, electrical machine design, hydraulic generator, rim-driven machine, superconducting generator.

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5224 Applying Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process for Evaluating Service Quality of Online Auction

Authors: Chien-Hua Wang, Meng-Ying Chou, Chin-Tzong Pang

Abstract:

This paper applies fuzzy AHP to evaluate the service quality of online auction. Service quality is a composition of various criteria. Among them many intangible attributes are difficult to measure. This characteristic introduces the obstacles for respondents on reply in the survey. So as to overcome this problem, we invite fuzzy set theory into the measurement of performance and use AHP in obtaining criteria. We found the most concerned dimension of service quality is Transaction Safety Mechanism and the least is Charge Item. Other criteria such as information security, accuracy and information are too vital.

Keywords: Fuzzy set theory, AHP, Online auction, Service quality

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5223 Electrical Energy Harvesting Using Thermo Electric Generator for Rural Communities in India

Authors: N. Nandan A. M. Nagaraj, L. Sanjeev Kumar

Abstract:

In the rapidly growing population, the requirement of electrical power is increasing day by day. In order to meet the needs, we need to generate the power using alternate method. In this paper, a presentable approach is developed by analysis and can be implemented by utilizing heat energy, which is generated in numerous ways in some of the rural areas in India. The thermoelectric generator unit will be developed by combing with control circuits and converts, which is used to light the LED lamps. The temperature difference which is available in the kitchens, especially the exhaust pipes/chimneys of wooden fire stoves, where more heat is dissipated into the atmosphere, can be utilized for electrical power generation. Hence, the temperature rise of surroundings atmosphere can be reduced.

Keywords: Thermoelectric generator, LED, converts, temperature.

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5222 A Method to Calculate Frenet Apparatus of W-Curves in the Euclidean 6-Space

Authors: Süha Yılmaz, Melih Turgut

Abstract:

These In this work, a regular unit speed curve in six dimensional Euclidean space, whose Frenet curvatures are constant, is considered. Thereafter, a method to calculate Frenet apparatus of this curve is presented.

Keywords: Classical Differential Geometry, Euclidean 6-space, Frenet Apparatus of the curves.

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5221 eTax Filing and Service Quality: The Case of the Revenue Online Service

Authors: Regina Connolly, Frank Bannister

Abstract:

This paper describes an ongoing study into the quality of service provided by the Irish Revenue Commisioners- online tax filing and collection system. The Irish Revenue On-Line Service (ROS) site has won several awards. In this study, a version of the widely use SERVQUAL measuring instrument, adapted for use with online services, has been modified for the specific case of ROS. In this paper, the theory behind this instrument is set out, the particular problems of evaluating revenue collecting online are examined and the rationale for this approach is explained.

Keywords: E-service quality, revenue online system, online tax filing system.

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5220 Optimal Embedded Generation Allocation in Distribution System Employing Real Coded Genetic Algorithm Method

Authors: Mohd Herwan Sulaiman, Omar Aliman, Siti Rafidah Abdul Rahim

Abstract:

This paper proposes a new methodology for the optimal allocation and sizing of Embedded Generation (EG) employing Real Coded Genetic Algorithm (RCGA) to minimize the total power losses and to improve voltage profiles in the radial distribution networks. RCGA is a method that uses continuous floating numbers as representation which is different from conventional binary numbers. The RCGA is used as solution tool, which can determine the optimal location and size of EG in radial system simultaneously. This method is developed in MATLAB. The effect of EG units- installation and their sizing to the distribution networks are demonstrated using 24 bus system.

Keywords: Embedded generation (EG), load flow study, optimal allocation, real coded genetic algorithm (RCGA).

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5219 Quantifying the UK’s Future Thermal Electricity Generation Water Use: Regional Analysis

Authors: Daniel Murrant, Andrew Quinn, Lee Chapman

Abstract:

A growing population has led to increasing global water and energy demand. This demand, combined with the effects of climate change and an increasing need to maintain and protect the natural environment, represents a potentially severe threat to many national infrastructure systems. This has resulted in a considerable quantity of published material on the interdependencies that exist between the supply of water and the thermal generation of electricity, often known as the water-energy nexus. Focusing specifically on the UK, there is a growing concern that the future availability of water may at times constrain thermal electricity generation, and therefore hinder the UK in meeting its increasing demand for a secure, and affordable supply of low carbon electricity. To provide further information on the threat the water-energy nexus may pose to the UK’s energy system, this paper models the regional water demand of UK thermal electricity generation in 2030 and 2050. It uses the strategically important Energy Systems Modelling Environment model developed by the Energy Technologies Institute. Unlike previous research, this paper was able to use abstraction and consumption factors specific to UK power stations. It finds that by 2050 the South East, Yorkshire and Humber, the West Midlands and North West regions are those with the greatest freshwater demand and therefore most likely to suffer from a lack of resource. However, it finds that by 2050 it is the East, South West and East Midlands regions with the greatest total water (fresh, estuarine and seawater) demand and the most likely to be constrained by environmental standards.

Keywords: Water-energy nexus, water resources, abstraction, climate change, power station cooling.

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5218 A Study on the Relation between Auditor Rotation and Audit Quality in Iranian Firms

Authors: Bita Mashayekhi, Marjan Fayyazi, Parisa Sefati

Abstract:

Audit quality is a popular topic in accounting and auditing research because recent decades’ financial crises reduce the reliability of financial reports to public investors and cause significant doubt about the audit profession. Therefore, doing research to identify effective factors in improving audit quality is necessary for bringing back public investors’ trust to financial statements as well as audit reports. In this study, we explore the relationship between audit rotation and audit quality. For this purpose, we employ the Duff (2009) model of audit quality to measure audit quality and use a questionnaire survey of 27 audit service quality attributes. Our results show that there is a negative relationship between auditor’s rotation and audit quality as we consider the auditor’s reputation, capability, assurance, experience, and responsiveness as surrogates for audit quality. There is no evidence for verifying a same relationship when we use the auditor’s independence and expertise for measuring audit quality.

Keywords: Audit quality, auditor’s rotation, reputation, capability, assurance, experience, responsiveness, independence, expertise.

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5217 Centralized Controller for Microgrid

Authors: Adel Hamad Rafa

Abstract:

This paper, proposes a control system for use with microgrid consiste of  multiple small scale embedded generation networks (SSEG networks) connected to the 33kV distribution network. The proposed controller controls power flow in the grid-connected mode of operation, enables voltage and frequency control when the SSEG networks are islanded, and resynchronises the SSEG networks with the utility before reconnecting them. The performance of the proposed controller has been tested in simulations using PSCAD.

Keywords: Microgrid, Small scale embedded generation, island mode, resynchronisation.

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5216 Flexural Strength Design of RC Beams with Consideration of Strain Gradient Effect

Authors: Mantai Chen, Johnny Ching Ming Ho

Abstract:

The stress-strain relationship of concrete under flexure is one of the essential parameters in assessing ultimate flexural strength capacity of RC beams. Currently, the concrete stress-strain curve in flexure is obtained by incorporating a constant scale-down factor of 0.85 in the uniaxial stress-strain curve. However, it was revealed that strain gradient would improve the maximum concrete stress under flexure and concrete stress-strain curve is strain gradient dependent. Based on the strain-gradient-dependent concrete stress-strain curve, the investigation of the combined effects of strain gradient and concrete strength on flexural strength of RC beams was extended to high strength concrete up to 100 MPa by theoretical analysis. As an extension and application of the authors’ previous study, a new flexural strength design method incorporating the combined effects of strain gradient and concrete strength is developed. A set of equivalent rectangular concrete stress block parameters is proposed and applied to produce a series of design charts showing that the flexural strength of RC beams are improved with strain gradient effect considered.

Keywords: Beams, Equivalent concrete stress block, Flexural strength, Strain gradient.

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5215 Gasoline and Diesel Production via Fischer- Tropsch Synthesis over Cobalt Based Catalyst

Authors: N. Choosri, N. Swadchaipong, T. Utistham, U. W. Hartley

Abstract:

Performance of a cobalt doped sol-gel derived silica (Co/SiO2) catalyst for Fischer–Tropsch synthesis (FTS) in slurryphase reactor was studied using paraffin wax as initial liquid media. The reactive mixed gas, hydrogen (H2) and carbon monoxide (CO) in a molar ratio of 2:1, was flowed at 50 ml/min. Braunauer-Emmett- Teller (BET) surface area and X-ray diffraction (XRD) techniques were employed to characterize both the specific surface area and crystallinity of the catalyst, respectively. The reduction behavior of Co/SiO2 catalyst was investigated using the Temperature Programmmed Reduction (TPR) method. Operating temperatures were varied from 493 to 533K to find the optimum conditions to maximize liquid fuels production, gasoline and diesel.

Keywords: Fischer Tropsch synthesis, slurry phase, Co/SiO2, operating temperature.

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5214 Synthesis of Unconventional Materials Using Chitosan and Crown Ether for Selective Removal of Precious Metal Ions

Authors: Rabindra Prasad Dhakal, Tatsuya Oshima, Yoshinari Baba

Abstract:

The polyfunctional and highly reactive bio-polymer, the chitosan was first regioselectively converted into dialkylated chitosan using dimsyl anionic solution(NaH in DMSO) and bromodecane after protecting amino groups by phthalic anhydride. The dibenzo-18-crown-6-ether, on the other hand, was converted into its carbonyl derivatives via Duff reaction prior to incorporate into chitosan by Schiff base formation. Thus formed diformylated dibenzo-18-crown-6-ether was condensed with lipophilic chitosan to prepare the novel solvent extraction reagent. The products were characterized mainly by IR and 1H-NMR. Hence, the multidentate crown ether-embedded polyfunctional bio-material was tested for extraction of Pd(II) and Pt(IV) in aqueous solution.

Keywords: Lipophilic chitosan, Duff reaction, crown ether and precious metal ions extraction.

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5213 Iterative Joint Power Control and Partial Crosstalk Cancellation in Upstream VDSL

Authors: H. Bagheri, H. Emami, M. R. Pakravan

Abstract:

Crosstalk is the major limiting issue in very high bit-rate digital subscriber line (VDSL) systems in terms of bit-rate or service coverage. At the central office side, joint signal processing accompanied by appropriate power allocation enables complex multiuser processors to provide near capacity rates. Unfortunately complexity grows with the square of the number of lines within a binder, so by taking into account that there are only a few dominant crosstalkers who contribute to main part of crosstalk power, the canceller structure can be simplified which resulted in a much lower run-time complexity. In this paper, a multiuser power control scheme, namely iterative waterfilling, is combined with previously proposed partial crosstalk cancellation approaches to demonstrate the best ever achieved performance which is verified by simulation results.

Keywords: iterative waterfilling, partial crosstalk cancellation, run-time complexity, VDSL.

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5212 Flexible Development and Calculation of Contract Logistics Services

Authors: T. Spiegel, J. Siegmann, C. F. Durach

Abstract:

Challenges resulting from an international and dynamic business environment are increasingly being passed on from manufacturing companies to external service providers. Especially providers of complex, customer-specific industry services have to cope with continuously changing requirements. This is particularly true for contract logistics service providers. They are forced to develop efficient and highly flexible structures and strategies to meet their customer’s needs. One core element they have to focus on is the reorganization of their service development and sales process. Based on an action research approach, this study develops and tests a concept to streamline tender management for contract logistics service providers. The concept of modularized service architecture is deployed in order to derive a practice-oriented approach for the modularization of complex service portfolios and the design of customized quotes. These findings are evaluated regarding their applicability in other service sectors and practical recommendations are given.

Keywords: Contract Logistics, Modularization, Service Development, Tender Management.

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5211 Integration of Acceleration Feedback Control with Automatic Generation Control in Intelligent Load Frequency Control

Authors: H. Zainuddin, F. Hanafi, M. H. Hairi, A. Aman, M.H.N. Talib

Abstract:

This paper investigates the effects of knowledge-based acceleration feedback control integrated with Automatic Generation Control (AGC) to enhance the quality of frequency control of governing system. The Intelligent Acceleration Feedback Controller (IAFC) is proposed to counter the over and under frequency occurrences due to major load change in power system network. Therefore, generator tripping and load shedding operations can be reduced. Meanwhile, the integration of IAFC with AGC, a well known Load-Frequency Control (LFC) is essential to ensure the system frequency is restored to the nominal value. Computer simulations of frequency response of governing system are used to optimize the parameters of IAFC. As a result, there is substantial improvement on the LFC of governing system that employing the proposed control strategy.

Keywords: Knowledge-based Supplementary Control, Acceleration Feedback, Load Frequency Control, Automatic Generation Control.

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5210 Investigating the Possible use of Session Initiation Protocol for Extending Mobility Service to the Biomedical Engineers

Authors: Anwar Sadat

Abstract:

Today, the Internet based communication has widen the opportunity of event monitoring system in the medical field. There is always a need of analyzing and designing secure and reliable mobile communication between the hospital and biomedical engineers mobile units. This study has been carried out to find possible solution using SIP-based event notification for alerting the technical staff about the Biomedical Device (BMD) status and Patients treatment session. The Session Initiation Protocol (SIP) can be used to create a medical event notification system. SIP can work on a variety of devices. Its adoption as the protocol of choice for third generation wireless networks allows for a robust and scalable environment. One of the advantages of SIP is that it supports personal mobility through the separation of user addressing and device addressing. The solution for Telemed alert notification system is based on SIP - Specific Event Notification. The aim of this project is to extend mobility service to the hospital technicians who are using Telemedicine system.

Keywords: Biomedical, Mobility Service, Notify, Proxy Server, SIP, Subscribe, Telemedicine.

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5209 Investigation on Ship Collision Phenomena by Analytical and Finite Element Methods

Authors: Abuzar.Abazari, Saeed. Ziaei-Rad, Hoseein. Dalayeli

Abstract:

Collision is considered as a time-depended nonlinear dynamic phenomenon. The majority of researchers have focused on deriving the resultant damage of the ship collisions via analytical, experimental, and finite element methods.In this paper, first, the force-penetration curve of a head collision on a container ship with rigid barrier based on Yang and Pedersen-s methods for internal mechanic section is studied. Next, the obtained results from different analytical methods are compared with each others. Then, through a simulation of the container ship collision in Ansys Ls-Dyna, results from finite element approach are compared with analytical methods and the source of errors is discussed. Finally, the effects of parameters such as velocity, and angle of collision on the forcepenetration curve are investigated.

Keywords: Ship collision, Force-penetration curve, Damage

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5208 Network-Constrained AC Unit Commitment under Uncertainty Using a Bender’s Decomposition Approach

Authors: B. Janani, S. Thiruvenkadam

Abstract:

In this work, the system evaluates the impact of considering a stochastic approach on the day ahead basis Unit Commitment. Comparisons between stochastic and deterministic Unit Commitment solutions are provided. The Unit Commitment model consists in the minimization of the total operation costs considering unit’s technical constraints like ramping rates, minimum up and down time. Load shedding and wind power spilling is acceptable, but at inflated operational costs. The evaluation process consists in the calculation of the optimal unit commitment and in verifying the fulfillment of the considered constraints. For the calculation of the optimal unit commitment, an algorithm based on the Benders Decomposition, namely on the Dual Dynamic Programming, was developed. Two approaches were considered on the construction of stochastic solutions. Data related to wind power outputs from two different operational days are considered on the analysis. Stochastic and deterministic solutions are compared based on the actual measured wind power output at the operational day. Through a technique capability of finding representative wind power scenarios and its probabilities, the system can analyze a more detailed process about the expected final operational cost.

Keywords: Benders’ decomposition, network constrained AC unit commitment, stochastic programming, wind power uncertainty.

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5207 Service-Based Application Adaptation Strategies: A Survey

Authors: Sahba Paktinat, Afshin Salajeghe, Mir Ali Seyyedi, Yousef Rastegari

Abstract:

Service Oriented Architecture (SOA) allows modeling of dynamic interaction between incongruous providers, which enables governing the development of complex applications. However, implementation of SOA comes with some challenges, including its adaptability and robustness. Dynamism is inherent to the nature of service based applications and of their running environment. These factors lead to necessity for dynamic adaptation. In this paper we try to describe basics and main structure of SOA adaptation process with a conceptual view to this issue. In this survey we will review the relevant adaptation approaches. This paper allows studying how different approaches deal with service oriented architecture adaptation life-cycle and provides basic guidelines for their analysis, evaluation and comparison.

Keywords: Context-aware, Dynamic Adaptation, Quality of Services, Service Oriented Architecture, Service Based Application.

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5206 Modeling and Analysis of SVPWM Based Dynamic Voltage Restorer

Authors: Ahmed Helal, Sherif Zain Elabideen, Ahmed Lotfy

Abstract:

In this paper the modeling and analysis of Space Vector Pulse Width Modulation (SVPWM) based Dynamic Voltage Restorer (DVR) using PSCAD/EMTDC software will be presented in details. The simulation includes full modeling of the SVPWM technique used to control the DVR inverter. A test power system composed of three phase voltage source, sag generator, DVR and three phase resistive load is used to demonstrate restoration capability of the DVR. The simulation results of the presented DVR proved excellent voltage sag mitigation to protect sensitive loads.

Keywords: Dynamic voltage restorer, power quality, simulationand modeling, voltage sag.

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5205 The Ability of Forecasting the Term Structure of Interest Rates Based On Nelson-Siegel and Svensson Model

Authors: Tea Poklepović, Zdravka Aljinović, Branka Marasović

Abstract:

Due to the importance of yield curve and its estimation it is inevitable to have valid methods for yield curve forecasting in cases when there are scarce issues of securities and/or week trade on a secondary market. Therefore in this paper, after the estimation of weekly yield curves on Croatian financial market from October 2011 to August 2012 using Nelson-Siegel and Svensson models, yield curves are forecasted using Vector autoregressive model and Neural networks. In general, it can be concluded that both forecasting methods have good prediction abilities where forecasting of yield curves based on Nelson Siegel estimation model give better results in sense of lower Mean Squared Error than forecasting based on Svensson model Also, in this case Neural networks provide slightly better results. Finally, it can be concluded that most appropriate way of yield curve prediction is Neural networks using Nelson-Siegel estimation of yield curves.

Keywords: Nelson-Siegel model, Neural networks, Svensson model, Vector autoregressive model, Yield curve.

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