Search results for: Time history analysis
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 13574

Search results for: Time history analysis

13094 Application of Stochastic Models to Annual Extreme Streamflow Data

Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi

Abstract:

This study was designed to find the best stochastic model (using of time series analysis) for annual extreme streamflow (peak and maximum streamflow) of Karkheh River at Iran. The Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model used to simulate these series and forecast those in future. For the analysis, annual extreme streamflow data of Jelogir Majin station (above of Karkheh dam reservoir) for the years 1958–2005 were used. A visual inspection of the time plot gives a little increasing trend; therefore, series is not stationary. The stationarity observed in Auto-Correlation Function (ACF) and Partial Auto-Correlation Function (PACF) plots of annual extreme streamflow was removed using first order differencing (d=1) in order to the development of the ARIMA model. Interestingly, the ARIMA(4,1,1) model developed was found to be most suitable for simulating annual extreme streamflow for Karkheh River. The model was found to be appropriate to forecast ten years of annual extreme streamflow and assist decision makers to establish priorities for water demand. The Statistical Analysis System (SAS) and Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) codes were used to determinate of the best model for this series.

Keywords: Stochastic models, ARIMA, extreme streamflow, Karkheh River.

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13093 The Concept of Birthday: A Theoretical, Historical, and Social Overview, in Judaism and Other Cultures

Authors: Orly Redlich

Abstract:

In the age of social distance, which has been added to an individual and competitive worldview, it has become important to find a way to promote closeness and personal touch. The sense of social belonging and the existence of positive interaction with others have recently become a considerable necessity. Therefore, this theoretical paper will review one of the familiar and common concepts among different cultures around the world – birthday. This paper has a theoretical contribution that deepens the understanding of the birthday concept. Birthday rituals are historical and universal events, which noted since the prehistoric eras. In ancient history, birthday rituals were solely reserved for kings and nobility members, but over the years, birthday celebrations have evolved into a worldwide tradition. Some of the familiar birthday customs and symbols are currently common among most cultures, while some cultures have adopted for themselves unique birthday customs, which characterized their values and traditions. The birthday concept has a unique significance in Judaism as well, historically, religiously, and socially: It is considered as a lucky day and a private holiday for the celebrant. Therefore, the present paper reviews diverse birthday customs around the world in different cultures, including Judaism, and marks important birthdays throughout history. The paper also describes how the concept of birthday appears over the years in songs, novels, and art, and presents quotes from distinguished sages. The theoretical review suggests that birthday has a special meaning as a time-mark in the cycle of life, and as a socialization means in human development. Moreover, the birthday serves as a symbol of belonging and group cohesiveness, a day in which the celebrant's sense of belonging and sense of importance are strengthened and nurtured. Thus, the reappearance of these elements in a family or group interaction during the birthday ceremony allows the celebrant to absorb positive impressions about himself. In view of the extensive theoretical review, it seems that the unique importance of birthdays can serve as the foundation for intervention programs that may affect the participants’ sense of belonging and empowerment. In the group aspect, perhaps it can also yield therapeutic factors within a group. Concrete recommendations are presented at the end of the paper.

Keywords: Birthday, universal events, rituals, positive interaction, group cohesiveness.

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13092 Time and Cost Efficiency Analysis of Quick Die Change System on Metal Stamping Industry

Authors: Rudi Kurniawan Arief

Abstract:

Manufacturing cost and setup time are the hot topics to improve in Metal Stamping industry because material and components price are always rising up while costumer requires to cut down the component price year by year. The Single Minute Exchange of Die (SMED) is one of many methods to reduce waste in stamping industry. The Japanese Quick Die Change (QDC) dies system is one of SMED systems that could reduce both of setup time and manufacturing cost. However, this system is rarely used in stamping industries. This paper will analyze how deep the QDC dies system could reduce setup time and the manufacturing cost. The research is conducted by direct observation, simulating and comparing of QDC dies system with conventional dies system. In this research, we found that the QDC dies system could save up to 35% of manufacturing cost and reduce 70% of setup times. This simulation proved that the QDC die system is effective for cost reduction but must be applied in several parallel production processes.

Keywords: Press die, metal stamping, quick die change, QDC system, single minute exchange die, manufacturing cost saving, SMED.

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13091 Effects of Process Parameters on the Yield of Oil from Coconut Fruit

Authors: Ndidi F. Amulu, Godian O. Mbah, Maxwel I. Onyiah, Callistus N. Ude

Abstract:

Analysis of the properties of coconut (Cocos nucifera) and its oil was evaluated in this work using standard analytical techniques. The analyses carried out include proximate composition of the fruit, extraction of oil from the fruit using different process parameters and physicochemical analysis of the extracted oil. The results showed the percentage (%) moisture, crude lipid, crude protein, ash and carbohydrate content of the coconut as 7.59, 55.15, 5.65, 7.35 and 19.51 respectively. The oil from the coconut fruit was odourless and yellowish liquid at room temperature (30oC). The treatment combinations used (leaching time, leaching temperature and solute: solvent ratio) showed significant differences (P<0.05) in the yield of oil from coconut flour. The oil yield ranged between 36.25%-49.83%. Lipid indices of the coconut oil indicated the acid value (AV) as 10.05Na0H/g of oil, free fatty acid (FFA) as 5.03%, saponification values (SV) as 183.26mgKOH-1g of oil, iodine value (IV) as 81.00 I2/g of oil, peroxide value (PV) as 5.00 ml/ g of oil and viscosity (V) as 0.002. A standard statistical package minitab version 16.0 program was used in the regression analysis and analysis of variance (ANOVA). The statistical software mentioned above was also used to generate various plots such as single effect plot, interactions effect plot and contour plot. The response or yield of oil from the coconut flour was used to develop a mathematical model that correlates the yield to the process variables studied. The maximum conditions obtained that gave the highest yield of coconut oil were leaching time of 2hrs, leaching temperature of 50oC and solute/solvent ratio of 0.05g/ml.

Keywords: Coconut, oil-extraction, optimization, physicochemical, proximate.

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13090 Torrefaction of Malaysian Palm Kernel Shell into Value-Added Solid Fuels

Authors: Amin A. Jaafar, Murni M. Ahmad

Abstract:

This project aims to investigate the potential of torrefaction to improve the properties of Malaysian palm kernel shell (PKS) as a solid fuel. A study towards torrefaction of PKS was performed under various temperature and residence time of 240, 260, and 280oC and 30, 60, and 90 minutes respectively. The torrefied PKS was characterized in terms of the mass yield, energy yield, elemental composition analysis, calorific value analysis, moisture and volatile matter contents, and ash and fixed carbon contents. The mass and energy yield changes in the torrefied PKS were observed to prove that the temperature has more effect compare to residence time in the torrefaction process. The C content of PKS increases while H and O contents decrease after torrefaction, which resulted in higher heating value between 5 to 16%. Meanwhile, torrefaction caused the ash and fixed carbon content of PKS to increase, and the moisture and volatile matter to decrease.

Keywords: biomass, palm kernel shell, pretreatment, solid fuel, torrefaction

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13089 Belief Theory-Based Classifiers Comparison for Static Human Body Postures Recognition in Video

Authors: V. Girondel, L. Bonnaud, A. Caplier, M. Rombaut

Abstract:

This paper presents various classifiers results from a system that can automatically recognize four different static human body postures in video sequences. The considered postures are standing, sitting, squatting, and lying. The three classifiers considered are a naïve one and two based on the belief theory. The belief theory-based classifiers use either a classic or restricted plausibility criterion to make a decision after data fusion. The data come from the people 2D segmentation and from their face localization. Measurements consist in distances relative to a reference posture. The efficiency and the limits of the different classifiers on the recognition system are highlighted thanks to the analysis of a great number of results. This system allows real-time processing.

Keywords: Belief theory, classifiers comparison, data fusion, human motion analysis, real-time processing, static posture recognition.

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13088 A Retrospective Cohort Study on an Outbreak of Gastroenteritis Linked to a Buffet Lunch Served during a Conference in Accra

Authors: Benjamin Osei Tutu, Sharon Annison

Abstract:

On 21st November, 2016, an outbreak of foodborne illness occurred after a buffet lunch served during a stakeholders’ consultation meeting held in Accra. An investigation was conducted to characterise the affected people, determine the etiologic food, the source of contamination and the etiologic agent and to implement appropriate public health measures to prevent future occurrences. A retrospective cohort study was conducted via telephone interviews, using a structured questionnaire developed from the buffet menu. A case was defined as any person suffering from symptoms of foodborne illness e.g. diarrhoea and/or abdominal cramps after eating food served during the stakeholder consultation meeting in Accra on 21st November, 2016. The exposure status of all the members of the cohort was assessed by taking the food history of each respondent during the telephone interview. The data obtained was analysed using Epi Info 7. An environmental risk assessment was conducted to ascertain the source of the food contamination. Risks of foodborne infection from the foods eaten were determined using attack rates and odds ratios. Data was obtained from 54 people who consumed food served during the stakeholders’ meeting. Out of this population, 44 people reported with symptoms of food poisoning representing 81.45% (overall attack rate). The peak incubation period was seven hours with a minimum and maximum incubation periods of four and 17 hours, respectively. The commonly reported symptoms were diarrhoea (97.73%, 43/44), vomiting (84.09%, 37/44) and abdominal cramps (75.00%, 33/44). From the incubation period, duration of illness and the symptoms, toxin-mediated food poisoning was suspected. The environmental risk assessment of the implicated catering facility indicated a lack of time/temperature control, inadequate knowledge on food safety among workers and sanitation issues. Limited number of food samples was received for microbiological analysis. Multivariate analysis indicated that illness was significantly associated with the consumption of the snacks served (OR 14.78, P < 0.001). No stool and blood or samples of etiologic food were available for organism isolation; however, the suspected etiologic agent was Staphylococcus aureus or Clostridium perfringens. The outbreak could probably be due to the consumption of unwholesome snack (tuna sandwich or chicken. The contamination and/or growth of the etiologic agent in the snack may be due to the breakdown in cleanliness, time/temperature control and good food handling practices. Training of food handlers in basic food hygiene and safety is recommended.

Keywords: Accra, buffet, C. perfringens, cohort study, food poisoning, gastroenteritis, office workers, Staphylococcus aureus.

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13087 Image Segmentation Using 2-D Histogram in RGB Color Space in Digital Libraries

Authors: El Asnaoui Khalid, Aksasse Brahim, Ouanan Mohammed

Abstract:

This paper presents an unsupervised color image segmentation method. It is based on a hierarchical analysis of 2-D histogram in RGB color space. This histogram minimizes storage space of images and thus facilitates the operations between them. The improved segmentation approach shows a better identification of objects in a color image and, at the same time, the system is fast.

Keywords: Image segmentation, hierarchical analysis, 2-D histogram, Classification.

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13086 The First Prevalence Report of Direct Identification and Differentiation of B. abortus and B. melitensis using Real Time PCR in House Mouse of Iran

Authors: A. Doosti, S. Moshkelani

Abstract:

Brucellosis is a zoonotic disease; its symptoms and appearances are not exclusive in human and its traditional diagnosis is based on culture, serological methods and conventional PCR. For more sensitive, specific detection and differentiation of Brucella spp., the real time PCR method is recommended. This research has performed to determine the presence and prevalence of Brucella spp. and differentiation of Brucella abortus and Brucella melitensis in house mouse (Mus musculus) in west of Iran. A TaqMan analysis and single-step PCR was carried out in total 326 DNA of Mouse's spleen samples. From the total number of 326 samples, 128 (39.27%) gave positive results for Brucella spp. by conventional PCR, also 65 and 32 out of the 128 specimens were positive for B. melitensis, B. abortus, respectively. These results indicate a high presence of this pathogen in this area and that real time PCR is considerably faster than current standard methods for identification and differentiation of Brucella species. To our knowledge, this study is the first prevalence report of direct identification and differentiation of B. abortus and B. melitensis by real time PCR in mouse tissue samples in Iran.

Keywords: Differentiation, B. abortus, B. melitensis, TaqManprobe, Iran.

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13085 A Dynamic Time-Lagged Correlation based Method to Learn Multi-Time Delay Gene Networks

Authors: Ankit Agrawal, Ankush Mittal

Abstract:

A gene network gives the knowledge of the regulatory relationships among the genes. Each gene has its activators and inhibitors that regulate its expression positively and negatively respectively. Genes themselves are believed to act as activators and inhibitors of other genes. They can even activate one set of genes and inhibit another set. Identifying gene networks is one of the most crucial and challenging problems in Bioinformatics. Most work done so far either assumes that there is no time delay in gene regulation or there is a constant time delay. We here propose a Dynamic Time- Lagged Correlation Based Method (DTCBM) to learn the gene networks, which uses time-lagged correlation to find the potential gene interactions, and then uses a post-processing stage to remove false gene interactions to common parents, and finally uses dynamic correlation thresholds for each gene to construct the gene network. DTCBM finds correlation between gene expression signals shifted in time, and therefore takes into consideration the multi time delay relationships among the genes. The implementation of our method is done in MATLAB and experimental results on Saccharomyces cerevisiae gene expression data and comparison with other methods indicate that it has a better performance.

Keywords: Activators, correlation, dynamic time-lagged correlation based method, inhibitors, multi-time delay gene network.

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13084 The Location of Park and Ride Facilities Using the Fuzzy Inference Model

Authors: Anna Lower, Michal Lower, Robert Masztalski, Agnieszka Szumilas

Abstract:

The paper presents a method in which the expert knowledge is applied to fuzzy inference model. Even a less experienced person could benefit from the use of such a system, e.g. urban planners, officials. The analysis result is obtained in a very short time, so a large number of the proposed locations can also be verified in a short time. The proposed method is intended for testing of locations of car parks in a city. The paper shows selected examples of locations of the P&R facilities in cities planning to introduce the P&R. The analyses of existing objects are also shown in the paper and they are confronted with the opinions of the system users, with particular emphasis on unpopular locations. The results of the analyses are compared to expert analysis of the P&R facilities location that was outsourced by the city and the opinions about existing facilities users that were expressed on social networking sites. The obtained results are consistent with actual users’ feedback. The proposed method proves to be good, but does not require the involvement of a large experts team and large financial contributions for complicated research. The method also provides an opportunity to show the alternative location of P&R facilities. Although the results of the method are approximate, they are not worse than results of analysis of employed experts. The advantage of this method is ease of use, which simplifies the professional expert analysis. The ability of analyzing a large number of alternative locations gives a broader view on the problem. It is valuable that the arduous analysis of the team of people can be replaced by the model's calculation. According to the authors, the proposed method is also suitable for implementation on a GIS platform.

Keywords: Fuzzy logic inference, P&R facilities, P&R location.

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13083 Adapting Tools for Text Monitoring and for Scenario Analysis Related to the Field of Social Disasters

Authors: Svetlana Cojocaru, Mircea Petic, Inga Titchiev

Abstract:

Humanity faces more and more often with different social disasters, which in turn can generate new accidents and catastrophes. To mitigate their consequences, it is important to obtain early possible signals about the events which are or can occur and to prepare the corresponding scenarios that could be applied. Our research is focused on solving two problems in this domain: identifying signals related that an accident occurred or may occur and mitigation of some consequences of disasters. To solve the first problem, methods of selecting and processing texts from global network Internet are developed. Information in Romanian is of special interest for us. In order to obtain the mentioned tools, we should follow several steps, divided into preparatory stage and processing stage. Throughout the first stage, we manually collected over 724 news articles and classified them into 10 categories of social disasters. It constitutes more than 150 thousand words. Using this information, a controlled vocabulary of more than 300 keywords was elaborated, that will help in the process of classification and identification of the texts related to the field of social disasters. To solve the second problem, the formalism of Petri net has been used. We deal with the problem of inhabitants’ evacuation in useful time. The analysis methods such as reachability or coverability tree and invariants technique to determine dynamic properties of the modeled systems will be used. To perform a case study of properties of extended evacuation system by adding time, the analysis modules of PIPE such as Generalized Stochastic Petri Nets (GSPN) Analysis, Simulation, State Space Analysis, and Invariant Analysis have been used. These modules helped us to obtain the average number of persons situated in the rooms and the other quantitative properties and characteristics related to its dynamics.

Keywords: Lexicon of disasters, modelling, Petri nets, text annotation, social disasters.

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13082 All-Pairs Shortest-Paths Problem for Unweighted Graphs in O(n2 log n) Time

Authors: Udaya Kumar Reddy K. R, K. Viswanathan Iyer

Abstract:

Given a simple connected unweighted undirected graph G = (V (G), E(G)) with |V (G)| = n and |E(G)| = m, we present a new algorithm for the all-pairs shortest-path (APSP) problem. The running time of our algorithm is in O(n2 log n). This bound is an improvement over previous best known O(n2.376) time bound of Raimund Seidel (1995) for general graphs. The algorithm presented does not rely on fast matrix multiplication. Our algorithm with slight modifications, enables us to compute the APSP problem for unweighted directed graph in time O(n2 log n), improving a previous best known O(n2.575) time bound of Uri Zwick (2002).

Keywords: Distance in graphs, Dynamic programming, Graphalgorithms, Shortest paths.

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13081 Injunctions, Disjunctions, Remnants: The Reverse of Unity

Authors: Igor Guatelli

Abstract:

The universe of aesthetic perception entails impasses about sensitive divergences that each text or visual object may be subjected to. If approached through intertextuality that is not based on the misleading notion of kinships or similarities a priori admissible, the possibility of anachronistic, heterogeneous - and non-diachronic - assemblies can enhance the emergence of interval movements, intermediate, and conflicting, conducive to a method of reading, interpreting, and assigning meaning that escapes the rigid antinomies of the mere being and non-being of things. In negative, they operate in a relationship built by the lack of an adjusted meaning set by their positive existences, with no remainders; the generated interval becomes the remnant of each of them; it is the opening that obscures the stable positions of each one. Without the negative of absence, of that which is always missing or must be missing in a text, concept, or image made positive by history, nothing is perceived beyond what has been already given. Pairings or binary oppositions cannot lead only to functional syntheses; on the contrary, methodological disturbances accumulated by the approximation of signs and entities can initiate a process of becoming as an opening to an unforeseen other, transformation until a moment when the difficulties of [re]conciliation become the mainstay of a future of that sign/entity, not envisioned a priori. A counter-history can emerge from these unprecedented, misadjusted approaches, beginnings of unassigned injunctions and disjunctions, in short, difficult alliances that open cracks in a supposedly cohesive history, chained in its apparent linearity with no remains, understood as a categorical historical imperative. Interstices are minority fields that, because of their opening, are capable of causing opacity in that which, apparently, presents itself with irreducible clarity. Resulting from an incomplete and maladjusted [at the least dual] marriage between the signs/entities that originate them, this interval may destabilize and cause disorder in these entities and their own meanings. The interstitials offer a hyphenated relationship: a simultaneous union and separation, a spacing between the entity’s identity and its otherness or, alterity. One and the other may no longer be seen without the crack or fissure that now separates them, uniting, by a space-time lapse. Ontological, semantic shifts are caused by this fissure, an absence between one and the other, one with and against the other. Based on an improbable approximation between some conceptual and semantic shifts within the design production of architect Rem Koolhaas and the textual production of the philosopher Jacques Derrida, this article questions the notion of unity, coherence, affinity, and complementarity in the process of construction of thought from these ontological, epistemological, and semiological fissures that rattle the signs/entities and their stable meanings. Fissures in a thought that is considered coherent, cohesive, formatted are the negativity that constitutes the interstices that allow us to move towards what still remains as non-identity, which allows us to begin another story.

Keywords: Clearing, interstice, negative, remnant, spectrum.

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13080 Transferring Route Plan over Time

Authors: Barıs Kocer, Ahmet Arslan

Abstract:

Travelling salesman problem (TSP) is a combinational optimization problem and solution approaches have been applied many real world problems. Pure TSP assumes the cities to visit are fixed in time and thus solutions are created to find shortest path according to these point. But some of the points are canceled to visit in time. If the problem is not time crucial it is not important to determine new routing plan but if the points are changing rapidly and time is necessary do decide a new route plan a new approach should be applied in such cases. We developed a route plan transfer method based on transfer learning and we achieved high performance against determining a new model from scratch in every change.

Keywords: genetic algorithms, transfer learning, travellingsalesman problem

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13079 Negative RT-PCR in a Newborn Infected with Zika Virus: A Case Report

Authors: Vallejo Michael, Acuña Edgar, Roa Juan David, Peñuela Rosa, Parra Alejandra, Casallas Daniela, Rodriguez Sheyla

Abstract:

Congenital Zika Virus Syndrome is an entity composed by a variety of birth defects presented in newborns that have been exposed to the Zika Virus during pregnancy. The syndrome characteristic features are severe microcephaly, cerebral tissue abnormalities, ophthalmological abnormalities such as uveitis and chorioretinitis, arthrogryposis, clubfoot deformity and muscular tone abnormalities. The confirmatory test is the Reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) associated to the physical findings. Here we present the case of a newborn with microcephaly whose mother presented a confirmed Zika Virus infection during the third trimester of pregnancy, despite of the evident findings and the history of Zika infection the RT-PCR in amniotic and cerebrospinal fluid of the newborn was negative. RT-PCR has demonstrated a low sensibility in samples with low viral loads, reason why, we propose a clinical diagnosis in patients with clinical history of Zika Virus infection during pregnancy accompanied by evident clinical manifestations of the child.

Keywords: Zika Virus, polymerase chain reaction, microcephaly, amniotic fluid.

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13078 Product Features Extraction from Opinions According to Time

Authors: Kamal Amarouche, Houda Benbrahim, Ismail Kassou

Abstract:

Nowadays, e-commerce shopping websites have experienced noticeable growth. These websites have gained consumers’ trust. After purchasing a product, many consumers share comments where opinions are usually embedded about the given product. Research on the automatic management of opinions that gives suggestions to potential consumers and portrays an image of the product to manufactures has been growing recently. After launching the product in the market, the reviews generated around it do not usually contain helpful information or generic opinions about this product (e.g. telephone: great phone...); in the sense that the product is still in the launching phase in the market. Within time, the product becomes old. Therefore, consumers perceive the advantages/ disadvantages about each specific product feature. Therefore, they will generate comments that contain their sentiments about these features. In this paper, we present an unsupervised method to extract different product features hidden in the opinions which influence its purchase, and that combines Time Weighting (TW) which depends on the time opinions were expressed with Term Frequency-Inverse Document Frequency (TF-IDF). We conduct several experiments using two different datasets about cell phones and hotels. The results show the effectiveness of our automatic feature extraction, as well as its domain independent characteristic.

Keywords: Opinion mining, product feature extraction, sentiment analysis, SentiWordNet.

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13077 Duration Analysis of New Firms in the Banking Industry

Authors: Jesus Orbe, Vicente Nunez-Anton

Abstract:

This paper studies the duration or survival time of commercial banks active in the Moscovian three month Rouble deposits market, during the 1994-1997 period. The privatization process of the Russian commercial banking industry, after the 1988 banking reform, caused a massive entry of new banks followed by a period of high rates of exit. As a consequence, many firms went bankrupt without refunding their deposits. Therefore, both for the banks and for the banks- depositors, it is of interest to analyze which are the significant characteristics that motivate the exit or the closing of the bank. We propose a different methodology based on penalized weighted least squares which represents a very general, flexible and innovative approach for this type of analysis. The more relevant results are that smaller banks exit sooner, banks that enter the market in the last part of the study have shorter durations. As expected, the more experienced banks have a longer duration in the market. In addition, the mean survival time is lower for banks which offer extreme interest rates.

Keywords: Banking, censored, duration, Kaplan-Meier.

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13076 Instrumentation for Studying Real-time Popcorn Effect in Surface Mount Packages during Solder Reflow

Authors: Arijit Roy

Abstract:

Occurrence of popcorn in IC packages while assembling them onto the PCB is a well known moisture sensitive reliability issues, especially for surface mount packages. Commonly reflow soldering simulation process is conducted to assess the impact of assembling IC package onto PCB. A strain gauge-based instrumentation is developed to investigate the popcorn effect in surface mount packages during reflow soldering process. The instrument is capable of providing real-time quantitative information of the occurrence popcorn phenomenon in IC packages. It is found that the popcorn occur temperatures between 218 to 241°C depending on moisture soak condition, but not at the peak temperature of the reflow process. The presence of popcorn and delamination are further confirmed by scanning acoustic tomography as a failure analysis.

Keywords: Instrumentation, Popcorn, Real-time, Solder Reflow, Strain Gauge.

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13075 Civil Society and Democratization in Africa: The Role of the Civil Society in the 2005 Election in Ethiopia

Authors: Wondwosen Teshome B.

Abstract:

One of the approaches to democratization is the fostering of civil society organizations. In Africa, civil society organizations did not fully play their role in the continent-s democratization process due to many factors including the repressive regulations imposed on them by governing parties. In Ethiopia, for the first time in the country-s political history, the civil society played a very active role in the 2005 multi-party election. The involvement of the civil society in this election has far-reaching consequences. One of the objectives of this paper is to assess the consequences of such involvement for both the civil society and the political society in the country. The paper also examines the peculiarities of civil society formation in Africa in general, and in Ethiopia in particular by assessing both the “traditional" and “modern" civil society organizations.

Keywords: Africa, Civil Society, CSO, Democratization, Election, Ethiopia, NGO, Western donors.

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13074 Software Reliability Prediction Model Analysis

Authors: L. Mirtskhulava, M. Khunjgurua, N. Lomineishvili, K. Bakuria

Abstract:

Software reliability prediction gives a great opportunity to measure the software failure rate at any point throughout system test. A software reliability prediction model provides with the technique for improving reliability. Software reliability is very important factor for estimating overall system reliability, which depends on the individual component reliabilities. It differs from hardware reliability in that it reflects the design perfection. Main reason of software reliability problems is high complexity of software. Various approaches can be used to improve the reliability of software. We focus on software reliability model in this article, assuming that there is a time redundancy, the value of which (the number of repeated transmission of basic blocks) can be an optimization parameter. We consider given mathematical model in the assumption that in the system may occur not only irreversible failures, but also a failure that can be taken as self-repairing failures that significantly affect the reliability and accuracy of information transfer. Main task of the given paper is to find a time distribution function (DF) of instructions sequence transmission, which consists of random number of basic blocks. We consider the system software unreliable; the time between adjacent failures has exponential distribution.

Keywords: Exponential distribution, conditional mean time to failure, distribution function, mathematical model, software reliability.

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13073 Brand Placement Strategies in Turkey: The Case of “Yalan Dünya”

Authors: Burçe Boyraz

Abstract:

This study examines appearances of brand placement as an alternative communication strategy in television series by focusing on Yalan Dünya which is one of the most popular television series in Turkey. Consequently, this study has a descriptive research design and quantitative content analysis method is used in order to analyze frequency and time data of brand placement appearances in first 3 seasons of Yalan Dünya with 16 episodes. Analysis of brand placement practices in Yalan Dünya is dealt in three categories: episode-based analysis, season-based analysis and comparative analysis. At the end, brand placement practices in Yalan Dünya are evaluated in terms of type, form, duration and legal arrangements. As a result of this study, it is seen that brand placement plays a determinant role in Yalan Dünya content. Also, current legal arrangements make brand placement closer to other traditional communication strategies instead of differing brand placement from them distinctly.

Keywords: Advertising, Alternative communication strategy, Brand placement, Yalan Dünya.

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13072 Modeling of Material Removal on Machining of Ti-6Al-4V through EDM using Copper Tungsten Electrode and Positive Polarity

Authors: M. M. Rahman, Md. Ashikur Rahman Khan, K. Kadirgama M. M. Noor, Rosli A. Bakar

Abstract:

This paper deals optimized model to investigate the effects of peak current, pulse on time and pulse off time in EDM performance on material removal rate of titanium alloy utilizing copper tungsten as electrode and positive polarity of the electrode. The experiments are carried out on Ti6Al4V. Experiments were conducted by varying the peak current, pulse on time and pulse off time. A mathematical model is developed to correlate the influences of these variables and material removal rate of workpiece. Design of experiments (DOE) method and response surface methodology (RSM) techniques are implemented. The validity test of the fit and adequacy of the proposed models has been carried out through analysis of variance (ANOVA). The obtained results evidence that as the material removal rate increases as peak current and pulse on time increases. The effect of pulse off time on MRR changes with peak ampere. The optimum machining conditions in favor of material removal rate are verified and compared. The optimum machining conditions in favor of material removal rate are estimated and verified with proposed optimized results. It is observed that the developed model is within the limits of the agreeable error (about 4%) when compared to experimental results. This result leads to desirable material removal rate and economical industrial machining to optimize the input parameters.

Keywords: Ti-6Al-4V, material removal rate, copper tungsten, positive polarity, RSM.

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13071 Improved Robust Stability and Stabilization Conditions of Discrete-time Delayed System

Authors: Zixin Liu

Abstract:

The problem of robust stability and robust stabilization for a class of discrete-time uncertain systems with time delay is investigated. Based on Tchebychev inequality, by constructing a new augmented Lyapunov function, some improved sufficient conditions ensuring exponential stability and stabilization are established. These conditions are expressed in the forms of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs), whose feasibility can be easily checked by using Matlab LMI Toolbox. Compared with some previous results derived in the literature, the new obtained criteria have less conservatism. Two numerical examples are provided to demonstrate the improvement and effectiveness of the proposed method.

Keywords: Robust stabilization, robust stability, discrete-time system, time delay.

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13070 Analysis for a Food Chain Model with Crowley–Martin Functional Response and Time Delay

Authors: Kejun Zhuang, Zhaohui Wen

Abstract:

This paper is concerned with a nonautonomous three species food chain model with Crowley–Martin type functional response and time delay. Using the Mawhin-s continuation theorem in theory of degree, sufficient conditions for existence of periodic solutions are obtained.

Keywords: Periodic solutions, coincidence degree, food chain model, Crowley–Martin functional response.

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13069 Preventive Measures after Needle-Stick Injuries and Association with Health Locus of Control Beliefs in Medical Students

Authors: M. Karbakhsh, M. Shamseddini Motlagh, M. Khansari

Abstract:

The purpose of this research was to demonstrate prevalence of post-exposure preventive measures (PEP) after needlestick injuries and its relationship with locus of control beliefs in a sample of medical students. In this cross-sectional study, 300 medical students with history of having experienced needle stick injuries (NSI) for at least once filled in a questionnaire to determine if they perceived themselves to be responsible and effective in preventing blood born infections after NSI. About 38% of students did not seek any professional consult or PEP after NSI due to lack of enough time or access, anxiety about tests results, belief in uselessness of followup and not being able to change destiny. These 114 students were not different from others regarding their scores on NSI specific scale of locus of health control. Thus, the potentiality of NSI locus of control beliefs in predicting PEP was not seen in this study.

Keywords: health care workers, locus of health control, needle stick injuries, post-exposure prevention.

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13068 Promoting Electric Vehicles for Sustainable Urban Transport: How to Do It This Time Right

Authors: Reinhard Haas, Amela Ajanovic

Abstract:

In recent years various types of electric vehicles has gained again increasing attention as an environmentally benign technology in transport. Especially for urban areas with high local pollution this Zero-emission technology (at the point of use) is considered to provide proper solutions. Yet, the bad economics and the limited driving ranges are still major barriers for a broader market penetration of battery electric vehicles (BEV) and of fuel cell vehicles (FCV). The major result of our analyses is that the most important precondition for a further dissemination of BEV in urban areas are emission-free zones. This is an instrument which allows the promotion of BEV without providing excessive subsidies. In addition, it is important to note that the full benefits of EV can only be harvested if the electricity used is produced from renewable energy sources. That is to say, it has to be ensured that the use of BEV in urban areas is clearly linked to a green electricity purchase model. And moreover, the introduction of a CO2- emission-based tax system would support this requirement.

Keywords: Electric vehicles, economics, policies, history.

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13067 Comparing Test Equating by Item Response Theory and Raw Score Methods with Small Sample Sizes on a Study of the ARTé: Mecenas Learning Game

Authors: Steven W. Carruthers

Abstract:

The purpose of the present research is to equate two test forms as part of a study to evaluate the educational effectiveness of the ARTé: Mecenas art history learning game. The researcher applied Item Response Theory (IRT) procedures to calculate item, test, and mean-sigma equating parameters. With the sample size n=134, test parameters indicated “good” model fit but low Test Information Functions and more acute than expected equating parameters. Therefore, the researcher applied equipercentile equating and linear equating to raw scores and compared the equated form parameters and effect sizes from each method. Item scaling in IRT enables the researcher to select a subset of well-discriminating items. The mean-sigma step produces a mean-slope adjustment from the anchor items, which was used to scale the score on the new form (Form R) to the reference form (Form Q) scale. In equipercentile equating, scores are adjusted to align the proportion of scores in each quintile segment. Linear equating produces a mean-slope adjustment, which was applied to all core items on the new form. The study followed a quasi-experimental design with purposeful sampling of students enrolled in a college level art history course (n=134) and counterbalancing design to distribute both forms on the pre- and posttests. The Experimental Group (n=82) was asked to play ARTé: Mecenas online and complete Level 4 of the game within a two-week period; 37 participants completed Level 4. Over the same period, the Control Group (n=52) did not play the game. The researcher examined between group differences from post-test scores on test Form Q and Form R by full-factorial Two-Way ANOVA. The raw score analysis indicated a 1.29% direct effect of form, which was statistically non-significant but may be practically significant. The researcher repeated the between group differences analysis with all three equating methods. For the IRT mean-sigma adjusted scores, form had a direct effect of 8.39%. Mean-sigma equating with a small sample may have resulted in inaccurate equating parameters. Equipercentile equating aligned test means and standard deviations, but resultant skewness and kurtosis worsened compared to raw score parameters. Form had a 3.18% direct effect. Linear equating produced the lowest Form effect, approaching 0%. Using linearly equated scores, the researcher conducted an ANCOVA to examine the effect size in terms of prior knowledge. The between group effect size for the Control Group versus Experimental Group participants who completed the game was 14.39% with a 4.77% effect size attributed to pre-test score. Playing and completing the game increased art history knowledge, and individuals with low prior knowledge tended to gain more from pre- to post test. Ultimately, researchers should approach test equating based on their theoretical stance on Classical Test Theory and IRT and the respective  assumptions. Regardless of the approach or method, test equating requires a representative sample of sufficient size. With small sample sizes, the application of a range of equating approaches can expose item and test features for review, inform interpretation, and identify paths for improving instruments for future study.

Keywords: Effectiveness, equipercentile equating, IRT, learning games, linear equating, mean-sigma equating.

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13066 Energy-Aware Scheduling in Real-Time Systems: An Analysis of Fair Share Scheduling and Priority-Driven Preemptive Scheduling

Authors: Su Xiaohan, Jin Chicheng, Liu Yijing, Burra Venkata Durga Kumar

Abstract:

Energy-aware scheduling in real-time systems aims to minimize energy consumption, but issues related to resource reservation and timing constraints remain challenges. This study focuses on analyzing two scheduling algorithms, Fair-Share Scheduling (FFS) and Priority-Driven Preemptive Scheduling (PDPS), for solving these issues and energy-aware scheduling in real-time systems. Based on research on both algorithms and the processes of solving two problems, it can be found that FFS ensures fair allocation of resources but needs to improve with an imbalanced system load. And PDPS prioritizes tasks based on criticality to meet timing constraints through preemption but relies heavily on task prioritization and may not be energy efficient. Therefore, improvements to both algorithms with energy-aware features will be proposed. Future work should focus on developing hybrid scheduling techniques that minimize energy consumption through intelligent task prioritization, resource allocation, and meeting time constraints.

Keywords: Energy-aware scheduling, fair-share scheduling, priority-driven preemptive scheduling, real-time systems, optimization, resource reservation, timing constraints.

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13065 A Distributed Group Mutual Exclusion Algorithm for Soft Real Time Systems

Authors: Abhishek Swaroop, Awadhesh Kumar Singh

Abstract:

The group mutual exclusion (GME) problem is an interesting generalization of the mutual exclusion problem. Several solutions of the GME problem have been proposed for message passing distributed systems. However, none of these solutions is suitable for real time distributed systems. In this paper, we propose a token-based distributed algorithms for the GME problem in soft real time distributed systems. The algorithm uses the concepts of priority queue, dynamic request set and the process state. The algorithm uses first come first serve approach in selecting the next session type between the same priority levels and satisfies the concurrent occupancy property. The algorithm allows all n processors to be inside their CS provided they request for the same session. The performance analysis and correctness proof of the algorithm has also been included in the paper.

Keywords: Concurrency, Group mutual exclusion, Priority, Request set, Token.

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