Search results for: Lean strategies
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1098

Search results for: Lean strategies

618 Study and Design of Patient Flow at the Medicine Department of a University Hospital

Authors: P. Prudtikul, S. Pathomsiri

Abstract:

Most, if not all, public hospitals in Thailand have encountered a common problem regarding the increasing demand for medical services. The increasing number of patients causes so much strain on the hospital-s services, over-crowded, overloaded working hours, staff fatigue, medical error and long waiting time. This research studied the characteristics of operational processes of the medical care services at the medicine department in a large public university hospital. The research focuses on details regarding methods, procedures, processes, resources, and time management in overall processes. The simulation model is used as a tool to analyze the impact of various improvement strategies.

Keywords: Patient flow, medicine department, simulation, outpatient department.

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617 Prediction of Post Underwater Shock Properties of Polymer - Clay/Silica Hybrid Nanocomposites through Regression Models

Authors: D. Lingaraju, K. Ramji, M. Pramiladevi, U. Rajyalakshmi

Abstract:

Exploding concentrated underwater charges to damage underwater structures such as ship hulls is a part of naval warfare strategies. Adding small amounts of foreign particles (like clay or silica) of nanosize significantly improves the engineering properties of the polymers. In the present work the clay in terms 1, 2 and 3 percent by weight was surface treated with a suitable silane agent. The hybrid nanocomposite was prepared by the hand lay-up technique. Mathematical regression models have been employed for theoretical prediction. This will result in considerable savings in terms of project time, effort and cost.

Keywords: ANOVA, clay, halloysite, nanocomposites, underwater shock, regression, silica.

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616 Portfolio Simulation in GSM Cellular Telecommunication Industry for Company's Decision and Policies Making

Authors: M. Dachyar, Yudavedito

Abstract:

The rising growth of the GSM cellular phone industry has tightening competition level between providers in making strategies enhancing the market shares in Indonesia. Tsel, as one of those companies, has to determine the proper strategy to sustain as well as improve the market share without reducing its operational income level. Portfolio simulation model is designed with a dynamic system approach. The result of this research is a recommendation to the company by optimizing its technological policies, services, and promotions. The tariff policies and the signal quality should not be the main focus because this company has had a large number of customers and a good infrastructural condition.

Keywords: Telecommunication industry, simulation, dynamic system, portfolio, quality services.

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615 Study of Eatable Aquatic Invertebrates in the River Dhansiri, Dimapur, Nagaland, India

Authors: Dilip Nath

Abstract:

A study has been conducted on the available aquatic invertebrates in the river Dhansiri at Dimapur site. The study confirmed that the river body composed of aquatic macroinvertebrate community in two phyla viz., Arthropods and Molluscs. Total ten species have been identified from there as the source of alternative protein food for the common people. Not only the protein source they are also the component of aquatic food chain and indicators of aquatic ecosystem. Proper management and strategies to promote the edible invertebrates can be considered as the alternative protein and alternative income source for the common people for sustainable livelihood improvement.

Keywords: Dhansiri, Dimapur, invertebrates, livelihood improvement, protein

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614 From “Boat to Plate”: Creating Value through Sustainable Fish Supply Chain Visibility

Authors: Isabel Duarte de Almeida, João Vilas-Boas, Luís Miguel Ferreira

Abstract:

Environmental concerns about the scarcity of marine resources are critical driving forces for firms aiming to prepare their supply chains for sustainability. Building on previous work, this paper highlights the implementation of good practices geared towards sustainable operations in the seafood department, which were pursued in an exploratory retailer case. Outcomes of the adopted environmentally and socially acceptable fish retailing strategies, ranged from traceability, to self-certification and eco-labelling. The consequences for business were, as follows: stronger collaboration and trust across the chain of custody, improvement of sponsors’ image and of consumers’ loyalty and, progress in the Greenpeace retailers’ evaluation ranking.

Keywords: Sustainability in sea food, Supply Chain Traceability, Social Responsibility.

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613 Object Recognition in Color Images by the Self Configuring System MEMORI

Authors: Michela Lecca

Abstract:

System MEMORI automatically detects and recognizes rotated and/or rescaled versions of the objects of a database within digital color images with cluttered background. This task is accomplished by means of a region grouping algorithm guided by heuristic rules, whose parameters concern some geometrical properties and the recognition score of the database objects. This paper focuses on the strategies implemented in MEMORI for the estimation of the heuristic rule parameters. This estimation, being automatic, makes the system a self configuring and highly user-friendly tool.

Keywords: Automatic Object Recognition, Clustering, Contentbased Image Retrieval System, Image Segmentation, Region Adjacency Graph, Region Grouping.

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612 Housing Rehabilitation as a Means of Urban Regeneration and Population Integration

Authors: Andreas L. Savvides

Abstract:

The proposed paper examines strategies whose aim is to counter the all too often sighted process of abandonment that characterizes contemporary cities. The city of Nicosia in Cyprus is used as an indicative case study, whereby several recent projects are presented as capitalizing on traditional cultural assets to revive the downtown. The reuse of existing building stock as museums, performing arts centers and theaters but also as in the form of various housing typologies is geared to strengthen the ranks of local residents and to spur economic growth. Unlike the examples from the 1960s, the architecture of more recent adaptive reuse for urban regeneration seems to be geared in reinforcing a connection to the city where the buildings often reflect the characteristics of their urban context.

Keywords: Public Housing, Building Rehabilitation, Urban Regeneration, Population Integration

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611 The Para-Universe of Collaborative Group Work in Today-s University Classrooms: Strategies to Help Ensure Success

Authors: Karen Armstrong

Abstract:

Group work, projects and discussions are important components of teacher education courses whether they are face-toface, blended or exclusively online formats. This paper examines the varieties of tasks and challenges with this learning format in a face to face class teacher education class providing specific examples of both failure and success from both the student and instructor perspective. The discussion begins with a brief history of collaborative and cooperative learning, moves to an exploration of the promised benefits and then takes a look at some of the challenges which can arise specifically from the use of new technologies. The discussion concludes with guidelines and specific suggestions.

Keywords: collaborative learning, cooperative computersupported collaborative learning (CSCL), e-learning, group dynamics

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610 Assessment of Climate Policy and Sustainability in Hungary

Authors: M. Csete, G. Szendrö

Abstract:

The last Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, stating that the greatest risk in climate change affects sustainability is now widely known and accepted. However, it has not provoked substantial reaction and attention in Hungary, while international and national efforts have also not achieved expected results so far. Still, there are numerous examples on different levels (national, regional, local, household) making considerable progress in limiting their own emissions and making steps toward mitigation of and adaptation to climate change. The local level is exceptionally important in sustainability adaptation, as local communities are often able to adapt more flexibly to changes in the natural environment.The aim of this paper is to attempt a review of the national climate policy and the local climate change strategies in Hungary considering sustainable development.

Keywords: adaptation, climate policy, mitigation, localsustainability.

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609 A Microscopic Simulation Model for Earthmoving Operations

Authors: Jiali Fu

Abstract:

Earthmoving operations are a major part of many construction projects. Because of the complexity and fast-changing environment of such operations, the planning and estimating are crucial on both planning and operational levels. This paper presents the framework ofa microscopic discrete-event simulation system for modeling earthmoving operations and conducting productivity estimations on an operational level.A prototype has been developed to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed framework, and this simulation system is presented via a case study based on an actual earthmoving project. The case study shows that the proposed simulation model is capable of evaluating alternative operating strategies and resource utilization at a very detailed level.

Keywords: Earthmoving operation, microscopic simulation, discrete-event simulation

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608 Designing AI-Enabled Smart Maintenance Scheduler: Enhancing Object Reliability through Automated Management

Authors: Arun Prasad Jaganathan

Abstract:

In today's rapidly evolving technological landscape, the need for efficient and proactive maintenance management solutions has become increasingly evident across various industries. Traditional approaches often suffer from drawbacks such as reactive strategies, leading to potential downtime, increased costs, and decreased operational efficiency. In response to these challenges, this paper proposes an AI-enabled approach to object-based maintenance management aimed at enhancing reliability and efficiency. The paper contributes to the growing body of research on AI-driven maintenance management systems, highlighting the transformative impact of intelligent technologies on enhancing object reliability and operational efficiency.

Keywords: AI, machine learning, predictive maintenance, object-based maintenance, expert team scheduling.

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607 An Efficiency Measurement of E-Government Performance for United Nation Ranking Index

Authors: Yassine Jadi, Lin Jie

Abstract:

In order to serve the society in an electronic manner, many developing countries have launched tremendous e-government projects. The strategies of development and implementation e-government system have reached different levels, and to ensure consistency of development, the governments need to evaluate e-government performance. The United nation has design e-government development ranking index (EGDI) that rely on three indexes, Online service index (OSI), Telecommunication Infrastructure index (TII), and human capital index( HCI) which are not reflecting the interaction between a government and their citizens. Based on data envelopment analyses (DEA) technique, we are using E-participating index (EPI) as an output of government effort to evaluate the performance of e-government system. Therefore, the ranking index can be achieved in efficiency manner.

Keywords: E-government, DEA, efficiency measurement, EGDI.

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606 E-Procurement, the Golden Key to Optimizing the Supply Chains System

Authors: Somayeh Farzin, Hossein Teimoori Nezhad

Abstract:

Procurement is an important component in the field of operating resource management and e-procurement is the golden key to optimizing the supply chains system. Global firms are optimistic on the level of savings that can be achieved through full implementation of e-procurement strategies. E-procurement is an Internet-based business process for obtaining materials and services and managing their inflow into the organization. In this paper, the subjects of supply chains and e-procurement and its benefits to organizations have been studied. Also, e-procurement in construction and its drivers and barriers have been discussed and a framework of supplier selection in an e-procurement environment has been demonstrated. This paper also has addressed critical success factors in adopting e-procurement in supply chains.

Keywords: E-Procurement, Supply Chain, Benefits, Construction, Drivers, Barriers, Supplier Selection, CFSs.

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605 Strategies to Achieve Deep Decarbonization in Power Generation: A Review

Authors: Abdullah Alotaiq

Abstract:

The transition to low-carbon power generation is essential for mitigating climate change and achieving sustainability. This process, however, entails considerable costs, and understanding the factors influencing these costs is critical. This is necessary to cater to the increasing demand for low-carbon electricity across heating, industry, and transportation sectors. A crucial aspect of this transition is identifying cost-effective and feasible paths for decarbonization, which is integral to global climate mitigation efforts. It is concluded that hybrid solutions, combining different low-carbon technologies, are optimal for minimizing costs and enhancing flexibility. These solutions also address the challenges associated with phasing out existing fossil fuel-based power plants and broadening the spectrum of low-carbon power generation options.

Keywords: Review, power generation, energy transition, decarbonization.

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604 Towards Sustainable Urban Planning In Times of Climate Change

Authors: Rosalba D'onofrio

Abstract:

It is not easy to imagine how the existing city can be converted to the principles of sustainability, however, the need for innovation, requires a pioneering phase which must address the main problems of rehabilitation of the operating models of the city. Today, however, there is a growing awareness that the identification and implementation of policies and measures to promote the adaptation, resilience and reversibility of the city, require the contribution of our discipline. This breakthrough is present in some recent international experiences of Climate Plans, in which the envisaged measures are closely interwoven with those of urban planning. These experiences, provide some answers principle questions, such as: how the strategies to combat climate can be integrated in the instruments of the local government; what new and specific analysis must be introduced in urban planning in order to understand the issues of urban sustainability, and how the project compares with different spatial scales.

Keywords: Climate change, urban sustainability, urban planning

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603 The Comparative Analysis of Micro-reading and Traditional Reading Based On Schema Theory

Authors: Haiyan Wang

Abstract:

Micro-reading is a new way of reading depended on short messages of mobile phones, network articles and short literary forms, which impacts greatly on traditional way of reading. The effect of "micro-reading" is deeper especially for those growing middle school students and college students. Aiming at the problem with the development of college students' micro-reading and based on the influence of schema theory on the research of cognition of reading, this paper is to analyze the comparison between micro-reading and traditional reading and explore reading strategies in micro-era based on the negative and positive effect which schema theory has on micro-reading.

Keywords: Schema theory, comparative analysis, micro-reading, traditional reading

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602 Iterative Way to Acquire Information Technology for Defense and Aerospace

Authors: Ahmet Denker, Hakan Gürkan

Abstract:

Defense and Aerospace environment is continuously striving to keep up with increasingly sophisticated Information Technology (IT) in order to remain effective in today-s dynamic and unpredictable threat environment. This makes IT one of the largest and fastest growing expenses of Defense. Hundreds of millions of dollars spent a year on IT projects. But, too many of those millions are wasted on costly mistakes. Systems that do not work properly, new components that are not compatible with old ones, trendy new applications that do not really satisfy defense needs or lost through poorly managed contracts. This paper investigates and compiles the effective strategies that aim to end exasperation with low returns and high cost of Information Technology acquisition for defense; it tries to show how to maximize value while reducing time and expenditure.

Keywords: Iterative process, acquisition management, project management, software economics, requirement analysis.

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601 Strategic Information in the Game of Go

Authors: Michael Harre, Terry Bossomaier, Ranqing Chu, Allan Snyder

Abstract:

We introduce a novel approach to measuring how humans learn based on techniques from information theory and apply it to the oriental game of Go. We show that the total amount of information observable in human strategies, called the strategic information, remains constant for populations of players of differing skill levels for well studied patterns of play. This is despite the very large amount of knowledge required to progress from the recreational players at one end of our spectrum to the very best and most experienced players in the world at the other and is in contrast to the idea that having more knowledge might imply more 'certainty' in what move to play next. We show this is true for very local up to medium sized board patterns, across a variety of different moves using 80,000 game records. Consequences for theoretical and practical AI are outlined.

Keywords: Board Games, Cognitive Capacity, Decision Theory, Information Theory.

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600 Dynamic Meshing for Material Point Method Computations

Authors: Wookuen Shin, Gregory R. Miller, Pedro Arduino, Peter Mackenzie-Helnwein

Abstract:

This paper presents strategies for dynamically creating, managing and removing mesh cells during computations in the context of the Material Point Method (MPM). The dynamic meshing approach has been developed to help address problems involving motion of a finite size body in unbounded domains in which the extent of material travel and deformation is unknown a priori, such as in the case of landslides and debris flows. The key idea is to efficiently instantiate and search only cells that contain material points, thereby avoiding unneeded storage and computation. Mechanisms for doing this efficiently are presented, and example problems are used to demonstrate the effectiveness of dynamic mesh management relative to alternative approaches.

Keywords: Numerical Analysis, Material Point Method, Large Deformations, Moving Boundaries.

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599 Implementation and Comparison between Two Algorithms of Three-Level Neutral Point Clamped Voltage Source Inverter

Authors: K. Benamrane, T. Abdelkrim, T. Benslimane, Aeh. Benkhelifa, B. Bezza

Abstract:

This paper presents a comparison between two Pulse Width Modulation (PWM) algorithms applied to a three-level Neutral Point Clamped (NPC) Voltage Source Inverter (VSI). The first algorithm applied is the triangular-sinusoidal strategy; the second is the Space Vector Pulse Width Modulation (SVPWM) strategy. In the first part, we present a topology of three-level NCP VSI. After that, we develop the two PWM strategies to control this converter. At the end the experimental results are presented.

Keywords: Multilevel inverter, Space vector pulse width modulation (SVPWM), triangular-sinusoidal strategy.

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598 Social Business Models: When Profits and Impacts Are Not at Odds

Authors: Elisa Pautasso, Matteo Castagno, Michele Osella

Abstract:

In the last decade the emergence of new social needs as an effect of the economic crisis has stimulated the flourishing of business endeavours characterised by explicit social goals. Social start-ups, social enterprises or Corporate Social Responsibility operations carried out by traditional companies are quintessential examples in this regard. This paper analyses these kinds of initiatives in order to discover the main characteristics of social business models and to provide insights to social entrepreneurs for developing or improving their strategies. The research is conducted through the integration of literature review and case study analysis and, thanks to the recognition of the importance of both profits and social impacts as the key success factors for a social business model, proposes a framework for identifying indicators suitable for measuring the social impacts generated.

Keywords: Business model, case study, impacts, social business.

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597 Using the OWA Operator in the Minkowski Distance

Authors: José M. Merigó, Anna M. Gil-Lafuente

Abstract:

We study different types of aggregation operators such as the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operator and the generalized OWA (GOWA) operator. We analyze the use of OWA operators in the Minkowski distance. We will call these new distance aggregation operator the Minkowski ordered weighted averaging distance (MOWAD) operator. We give a general overview of this type of generalization and study some of their main properties. We also analyze a wide range of particular cases found in this generalization such as the ordered weighted averaging distance (OWAD) operator, the Euclidean ordered weighted averaging distance (EOWAD) operator, the normalized Minkowski distance, etc. Finally, we give an illustrative example of the new approach where we can see the different results obtained by using different aggregation operators.

Keywords: Aggregation operators, Minkowski distance, OWA operators, Selection of strategies.

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596 Does the Polysemic Nature of Energy Security Make it a 'Wicked' Problem?

Authors: Lynne Chester

Abstract:

Governments around the world are expending considerable time and resources framing strategies and policies to deliver energy security. The term 'energy security' has quietly slipped into the energy lexicon without any meaningful discourse about its meaning or assumptions. An examination of explicit and inferred definitions finds that the concept is inherently slippery because it is polysemic in nature having multiple dimensions and taking on different specificities depending on the country (or continent), timeframe or energy source to which it is applied. But what does this mean for policymakers? Can traditional policy approaches be used to address the problem of energy security or does its- polysemic qualities mean that it should be treated as a 'wicked' problem? To answer this question, the paper assesses energy security against nine commonly cited characteristics of wicked policy problems and finds strong evidence of 'wickedness'.

Keywords: Energy security, policy making, wicked problems.

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595 Optimizing Usability Testing with Collaborative Method in an E-Commerce Ecosystem

Authors: Markandeya Kunchi

Abstract:

Usability testing (UT) is one of the vital steps in the User-centred design (UCD) process when designing a product. In an e-commerce ecosystem, UT becomes primary as new products, features, and services are launched very frequently. And, there are losses attached to the company if an unusable and inefficient product is put out to market and is rejected by customers. This paper tries to answer why UT is important in the product life-cycle of an E-commerce ecosystem. Secondary user research was conducted to find out work patterns, development methods, type of stakeholders, and technology constraints, etc. of a typical E-commerce company. Qualitative user interviews were conducted with product managers and designers to find out the structure, project planning, product management method and role of the design team in a mid-level company. The paper tries to address the usual apprehensions of the company to inculcate UT within the team. As well, it stresses upon factors like monetary resources, lack of usability expert, narrow timelines, and lack of understanding of higher management as some primary reasons. Outsourcing UT to vendors is also very prevalent with mid-level e-commerce companies, but it has its own severe repercussions like very little team involvement, huge cost, misinterpretation of the findings, elongated timelines, and lack of empathy towards the customer, etc. The shortfalls of the unavailability of a UT process in place within the team and conducting UT through vendors are bad user experiences for customers while interacting with the product, badly designed products which are neither useful and nor utilitarian. As a result, companies see dipping conversions rates in apps and websites, huge bounce rates and increased uninstall rates. Thus, there was a need for a more lean UT system in place which could solve all these issues for the company. This paper highlights on optimizing the UT process with a collaborative method. The degree of optimization and structure of collaborative method is the highlight of this paper. Collaborative method of UT is one in which the centralised design team of the company takes for conducting and analysing the UT. The UT is usually a formative kind where designers take findings into account and uses in the ideation process. The success of collaborative method of UT is due to its ability to sync with the product management method employed by the company or team. The collaborative methods focus on engaging various teams (design, marketing, product, administration, IT, etc.) each with its own defined roles and responsibility in conducting a smooth UT with users In-house. The paper finally highlights the positive results of collaborative UT method after conducting more than 100 In-lab interviews with users across the different lines of businesses. Some of which are the improvement of interaction between stakeholders and the design team, empathy towards users, improved design iteration, better sanity check of design solutions, optimization of time and money, effective and efficient design solution. The future scope of collaborative UT is to make this method leaner, by reducing the number of days to complete the entire project starting from planning between teams to publishing the UT report.

Keywords: Usability testing, collaborative method, e-commerce, product management method.

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594 Towards a Competence Management Approach Based on Continuous Improvement

Authors: N. Sefiani, C. Fikri Benbrahim, A. Boumane, K. Reklaoui

Abstract:

Nowadays, the reflection on competence management is the basic for new competitive strategies. It is considered as the core of the problems of the global supply chain. It interact a variety of actors: information, physical and activities flows, etc. Even though competence management is seen as the key factor for any business success, the existing approaches demonstrate the deficiencies and limitations of the competence concept. This research has two objectives: The first is to make a contribution by focusing on the development of a competence approach, based on continuous improvement. It allows the enterprise to spot key competencies, mobilize them in order to serve its strategic objectives and to develop future competencies. The second is to propose a method to evaluate the Level of Collective Competence. The approach was confirmed through an application carried out at an automotive company.

Keywords: Competencies, approach, continuous improvement, collective competence level, performance indicator.

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593 A Comparative Analysis of Multicarrier SPWM Strategies for Five-Level Flying Capacitor Inverter

Authors: Bachir Belmadani, Rachid Taleb, Zinelaabidine Boudjema, Adil Yahdou

Abstract:

Carrier-based methods have been used widely for switching of multilevel inverters due to their simplicity, flexibility and reduced computational requirements compared to space vector modulation (SVM). This paper focuses on Multicarrier Sinusoidal Pulse Width Modulation (MCSPWM) strategy for the three phase Five-Level Flying Capacitor Inverter (5LFCI). The inverter is simulated for Induction Motor (IM) load and Total Harmonic Distortion (THD) for output waveforms is observed for different controlling schemes.

Keywords: Flying capacitor inverter, multicarrier sinusoidal pulse width modulation, space vector modulation, total harmonic distortion, induction motor.

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592 Dynamic Performance Analysis of Distribution/ Sub-Transmission Networks with High Penetration of PV Generation

Authors: Cristian F.T. Montenegro, Luís F. N. Lourenço, Maurício B. C. Salles, Renato M. Monaro

Abstract:

More PV systems have been connected to the electrical network each year. As the number of PV systems increases, some issues affecting grid operations have been identified. This paper studied the impacts related to changes in solar irradiance on a distribution/sub-transmission network, considering variations due to moving clouds and daily cycles. Using MATLAB/Simulink software, a solar farm of 30 MWp was built and then implemented to a test network. From simulations, it has been determined that irradiance changes can have a significant impact on the grid by causing voltage fluctuations outside the allowable thresholds. This work discussed some local control strategies and grid reinforcements to mitigate the negative effects of the irradiance changes on the grid.

Keywords: Utility-scale PV systems, reactive power control, solar irradiance, voltage fluctuation.

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591 A Survey of IMRT and VMAT in UK

Authors: A. Taqaddas

Abstract:

Purpose: This E-survey was carried out to facilitate the implementation and Education of VMAT (Volumetric Modulated Arc Therapy) in Radiotherapy-RT departments and reasons for not using IMRT (Intensity Modulated Radiotherapy). VMAT Skills in demand were also identified. Method: E-Survey was distributed to NHS hospitals across UK by email. Thirty NHS and related centres in England, 21 in Scotland, 3 in Ireland and 1 in Wales were contacted. This Survey was intended for those working in RT and Medical Physics and who were responsible for Treatment Planning and training. Results: This E-survey have indicated pathways adopted by staff to acquire VMAT skills, strategies to efficiently implement VMAT in RT departments and for obtaining VMAT Education. Conclusion: Despite poor survey response this survey has managed to highlight requirements for education and implementation of VMAT that are also applicable to IMRT. Other RT centres in world can also find these results useful.

Keywords: IMRT, Radiotherapy, Treatment Planning, VMAT.

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590 Service-Based Application Adaptation Strategies: A Survey

Authors: Sahba Paktinat, Afshin Salajeghe, Mir Ali Seyyedi, Yousef Rastegari

Abstract:

Service Oriented Architecture (SOA) allows modeling of dynamic interaction between incongruous providers, which enables governing the development of complex applications. However, implementation of SOA comes with some challenges, including its adaptability and robustness. Dynamism is inherent to the nature of service based applications and of their running environment. These factors lead to necessity for dynamic adaptation. In this paper we try to describe basics and main structure of SOA adaptation process with a conceptual view to this issue. In this survey we will review the relevant adaptation approaches. This paper allows studying how different approaches deal with service oriented architecture adaptation life-cycle and provides basic guidelines for their analysis, evaluation and comparison.

Keywords: Context-aware, Dynamic Adaptation, Quality of Services, Service Oriented Architecture, Service Based Application.

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589 Forecasting Rainfall in Thailand: A Case Study of Nakhon Ratchasima Province

Authors: N. Sopipan

Abstract:

In this paper, we study the rainfall using a time series for weather stations in Nakhon Ratchasima province in Thailand by various statistical methods to enable us to analyse the behaviour of rainfall in the study areas. Time-series analysis is an important tool in modelling and forecasting rainfall. The ARIMA and Holt-Winter models were built on the basis of exponential smoothing. All the models proved to be adequate. Therefore it is possible to give information that can help decision makers establish strategies for the proper planning of agriculture, drainage systems and other water resource applications in Nakhon Ratchasima province. We obtained the best performance from forecasting with the ARIMA Model(1,0,1)(1,0,1)12.

Keywords: ARIMA Models, Exponential Smoothing, Holt- Winter model.

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