Search results for: Generalized Linear Model (GLM)

Authors: S. P. Sharma, Som Nath Saha

Abstract:

This paper deals with the analytical investigation of thermal and thermohydraulic performance of double flow solar air heaters with corrugated and flat plate absorber. A mathematical model of double flow solar air heater has been presented, and a computer program in C⁺⁺ language is developed to estimate the outlet temperature of air for the evaluation of thermal and thermohydraulic efficiency by solving the governing equations numerically using relevant correlations for heat transfer coefficients. The results obtained from the mathematical model is compared with the available experimental results and it is found to be reasonably good. The results show that the double flow solar air heaters have higher efficiency than conventional solar air heater, although the double flow corrugated absorber is superior to that of flat plate double flow solar air heater. It is also observed that the thermal efficiency increases with increase in mass flow rate; however, thermohydraulic efficiency increases with increase in mass flow rate up to a certain limit, attains the maximum value, then thereafter decreases sharply.

Keywords: Corrugated absorber, double flow, solar air heater, thermohydraulic efficiency.

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Authors: Rifah Ediati, Jajang

Abstract:

The quality of Ribbed Smoked Sheets (RSS) primarily based on color, dryness, and the presence or absence of fungus and bubbles. This quality is strongly influenced by the drying and fumigation process namely smoking process. Smoking that is held in high temperature long time will result scorched dark brown sheets, whereas if the temperature is too low or slow drying rate would resulted in less mature sheets and growth of fungus. Therefore need to find the time and temperature for optimum quality of sheets. Enhance, unmonitored heat and mass transfer during smoking process lead to high losses of energy balance. This research aims to generate simple empirical mathematical model describing the effect of smoking time and temperature to RSS quality of color, water content, fungus and bubbles. The second goal of study was to analyze energy balance during smoking process. Experimental study was conducted by measuring temperature, residence time and quality parameters of 16 sheets sample in smoking rooms. Data for energy consumption balance such as mass of fuel wood, mass of sheets being smoked, construction temperature, ambient temperature and relative humidity were taken directly along the smoking process. It was found that mathematical model correlating smoking temperature and time with color is Color = -169 - 0.184 T4 - 0.193 T3 - 0.160 0.405 T1 + T2 + 0.388 t1 +3.11 t2 + 3.92t3 + 0.215 t4 with R square 50.8% and with moisture is Moisture = -1.40-0.00123 T4 + 0.00032 T3 + 0.00260 T2 - 0.00292 T1 - 0.0105 t1 + 0.0290 t2 + 0.0452 t3 + 0.00061 t4 with R square of 49.9%. Smoking room energy analysis found useful energy was 27.8%. The energy stored in the material construction 7.3%. Lost of energy in conversion of wood combustion, ventilation and others were 16.6%. The energy flowed out through the contact of material construction with the ambient air was found to be the highest contribution to energy losses, it reached 48.3%.

Keywords: RSS quality, temperature, time, smoking room, energy

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Authors: Fatemeh Afsharnia, Mohammad Amin Asoodar, Abbas Abdeshahi

Abstract:

In economical evaluation literature, although the combination of some variables such as repair and maintenance costs and accumulated use hours has been widely considered in determining of optimum life for tractor, no investigation has indicated the influence of failure rate on repair and maintenance costs. In this study, the owners of three hundred tractors, which include Massey Ferguson, John Deere and Universal, were interviewed, from five regions of Khouzestan Province. A regression model was used to predict the tractors annual repair and maintenance costs based on failure rate. Results showed that the maximum percentage of annual repair and maintenance costs occurred in engine parts for MF285, JD3140 and U650 tractors while these costs for tire, ring, ball bearing and operator seat were higher compared to other MF399 tractor systems. According to the results of the regression, the failure rate increase would lead to annual repair and maintenance costs increase for all tractors. But, of all the tractors, repair and maintenance costs of JD3140 tractors extremely affected by the failure rate increase.

Keywords: Failure rate, tractor, annual repair and maintenance costs, regression model, Khouzestan.

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Authors: Firas M. Tuaimah, Huda M. Abdul Abbas

Abstract:

Accurate Short Term Load Forecasting (STLF) is essential for a variety of decision making processes. However, forecasting accuracy can drop due to the presence of uncertainty in the operation of energy systems or unexpected behavior of exogenous variables. Interval Type 2 Fuzzy Logic System (IT2 FLS), with additional degrees of freedom, gives an excellent tool for handling uncertainties and it improved the prediction accuracy. The training data used in this study covers the period from January 1, 2012 to February 1, 2012 for winter season and the period from July 1, 2012 to August 1, 2012 for summer season. The actual load forecasting period starts from January 22, till 28, 2012 for winter model and from July 22 till 28, 2012 for summer model. The real data for Iraqi power system which belongs to the Ministry of Electricity.

Keywords: Short term load forecasting, prediction interval, type 2 fuzzy logic systems.

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Authors: A. Abdel-Moniem, H. Madkour, K. Farah, A. Abdullah

Abstract:

The reduction in dapped end beams depth nearby the supports tends to produce stress concentration and hence results in shear cracks, if it does not have an adequate reinforcement detailing. This study investigates numerically the efficiency of applying different external strengthening techniques to the dapped end of such beams. A two-dimensional finite element model was built to predict the structural behavior of dapped ends strengthened with different techniques. The techniques included external bonding of the steel angle at the re-entrant corner, un-bounded bolt anchoring, external steel plate jacketing, exterior carbon fiber wrapping and/or stripping and external inclined steel plates. The FE analysis results are then presented in terms of the ultimate load capacities, load-deflection and crack pattern at failure. The results showed that the FE model, at various stages, was found to be comparable to the available test data. Moreover, it enabled the capture of the failure progress, with acceptable accuracy, which is very difficult in a laboratory test.

Keywords: Dapped-end beams, finite element, shear failure, strengthening techniques, reinforced concrete, numerical investigation.

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Authors: Sidhartha Panda, N. P. Padhy, R.N.Patel

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In this paper, genetic algorithm (GA) opmization technique is applied to design Flexible AC Transmission System (FACTS)-based damping controllers. Two types of controller structures, namely a proportional-integral (PI) and a lead-lag (LL) are considered. The design problem of the proposed controllers is formulated as an optimization problem and GA is employed to search for optimal controller parameters. By minimizing the time-domain based objective function, in which the deviation in the oscillatory rotor speed of the generator is involved; stability performance of the system is improved. The proposed controllers are tested on a weakly connected power system subjected to different disturbances. The non-linear simulation results are presented to show the effectiveness of the proposed controller and their ability to provide efficient damping of low frequency oscillations. It is also observed that the proposed SSSC-based controllers improve greatly the voltage profile of the system under severe disturbances. Further, the dynamic performances of both the PI and LL structured FACTS-controller are analyzed at different loading conditions and under various disturbance condition as well as under unbalanced fault conditions..

Keywords: Genetic algorithm, proportional-integral controller, lead-lag controller, power system stability, FACTS.

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Authors: R. F. Ajayi, U. Sidwaba, U. Feleni, S. F. Douman, E. Nxusani, L. Wilson, C. Rassie, O. Tovide, P. G. L. Baker, S. L. Vilakazi, R. Tshikhudo, E. I. Iwuoha

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Pyrazinamide (PZA) is among the first-line pro-drugs  in the tuberculosis (TB) combination chemotherapy used to treat  Mycobacterium tuberculosis. Numerous reports have suggested that  hepatotoxicity due to pyrazinamide in patients is due to inappropriate  dosing. It is, therefore necessary to develop sensitive and reliable  techniques for determining the PZA metabolic profile of diagnosed  patients promptly and at point-of-care. This study reports the  determination of PZA based on nanobiosensor systems developed  from disuccinimidyl octanedioate modified Cytochrome P450-2E1  (CYP2E1) electrodeposited on gold substrates derivatised with  (poly(8-anilino-1-napthalene sulphonic acid) PANSA/PVP-AgNPs  nanocomposites. The rapid and sensitive amperometric PZA  detection gave a dynamic linear range of 2µM to 16µM revealing a  limit of detection of 0.044µM and a sensitivity of 1.38µA/µM. The  Michaelis-Menten parameters; KM, KM app and IMAX were calculated to  be 6.0µM, 1.41µM and 1.51x10-6 A, respectively, indicating a  nanobiosensor suitable for use in serum.

Keywords: Cytochrome P450-2E1, Disuccinimidyl octanedioate, Pyrazinamide, Tuberculosis.

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Authors: Zhen Peng, Baifeng Wu

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Modern computing technology enters the era of parallel computing with the trend of sustainable and scalable parallelism. Single Instruction Multiple Data (SIMD) is an important way to go along with the trend. It is able to gather more and more computing ability by increasing the number of processor cores without the need of modifying the program. Meanwhile, in the field of scientific computing and engineering design, many computation intensive applications are facing the challenge of increasingly large amount of data. Data parallel computing will be an important way to further improve the performance of these applications. In this paper, we take the accurate collision detection in building information modeling as an example. We demonstrate a model for constructing a data parallel algorithm. According to the model, a complex object is decomposed into the sets of simple objects; collision detection among complex objects is converted into those among simple objects. The resulting algorithm is a typical SIMD algorithm, and its advantages in parallelism and scalability is unparalleled in respect to the traditional algorithms.

Keywords: Data parallelism, collision detection, single instruction multiple data, building information modeling, continuous scalability.

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Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

The paper presents a multiple criteria decision making analysis process to determine the most suitable regional aircraft type according to a set of evaluation criteria. The main purpose of this study is to use different decision making methods to determine the most suitable regional aircraft for aviation operators. In this context, the nine regional aircraft types were analyzed using multiple criteria decision making analysis methods. Preference analysis for reference ideal solution (PARIS) was used in regional aircraft selection process. The findings of the proposed model show that the ranking results of the multiple criteria decision making models are consistent with each other, and the proposed method is efficient, and the results are valid. Finally, the Embraer E195-E2 model regional aircraft is chosen as the most suitable aircraft type.

Keywords: aircraft, regional aircraft selection, multiple criteria decision making, multiple criteria decision making analysis, mean weight, entropy weight, MCDMA, PARIS

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Authors: Z. Khan, O. Moselhi, T. Zayed

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Development of levels of service in municipal context is a flexible vehicle to assist in performing quality-cost trade-off analysis for municipal services. This trade-off depends on the willingness of a community to pay as well as on the condition of the assets. Community perspective of the performance of an asset from service point of view may be quite different from the municipality perspective of the performance of the same asset from condition point of view. This paper presents a three phased level of service based methodology for water mains that consists of :1)development of an Analytical Hierarchy model of level of service 2) development of Fuzzy Weighted Sum model of water main condition index and 3) deriving a Fuzzy logic based function that maps level of service to asset condition index. This mapping will assist asset managers in quantifying condition improvement requirement to meet service goals and to make more informed decisions on interventions and relayed priorities.

Keywords: Asset Management, Level of Service, Condition Index, Analytical Hierarchy, Fuzzy Logic.

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Authors: H. Omrani, P. Gerber

Abstract:

Success is a European project that will implement several clean transport offers in three European cities and evaluate the environmental impacts. The goal of these measures is to improve urban mobility or the displacement of residents inside cities. For e.g. park and ride, electric vehicles, hybrid bus and bike sharing etc. A list of 28 criteria and 60 measures has been established for evaluation of these transport projects. The evaluation criteria can be grouped into: Transport, environment, social, economic and fuel consumption. This article proposes a decision support system based that encapsulates a hybrid approach based on fuzzy logic, multicriteria analysis and belief theory for the evaluation of impacts of urban mobility solutions. A web-based tool called DeSSIA (Decision Support System for Impacts Assessment) has been developed that treats complex data. The tool has several functionalities starting from data integration (import of data), evaluation of projects and finishes by graphical display of results. The tool development is based on the concept of MVC (Model, View, and Controller). The MVC is a conception model adapted to the creation of software's which impose separation between data, their treatment and presentation. Effort is laid on the ergonomic aspects of the application. It has codes compatible with the latest norms (XHTML, CSS) and has been validated by W3C (World Wide Web Consortium). The main ergonomic aspect focuses on the usability of the application, ease of learning and adoption. By the usage of technologies such as AJAX (XML and Java Script asynchrones), the application is more rapid and convivial. The positive points of our approach are that it treats heterogeneous data (qualitative, quantitative) from various information sources (human experts, survey, sensors, model etc.).

Keywords: Decision support tool, hybrid approach, urban mobility.

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Authors: S. K. Satpathy, S. Panda, K. K. Nagwanshi, S. K. Nayak, C. Ardil

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Removing noise from the any processed images is very important. Noise should be removed in such a way that important information of image should be preserved. A decisionbased nonlinear algorithm for elimination of band lines, drop lines, mark, band lost and impulses in images is presented in this paper. The algorithm performs two simultaneous operations, namely, detection of corrupted pixels and evaluation of new pixels for replacing the corrupted pixels. Removal of these artifacts is achieved without damaging edges and details. However, the restricted window size renders median operation less effective whenever noise is excessive in that case the proposed algorithm automatically switches to mean filtering. The performance of the algorithm is analyzed in terms of Mean Square Error [MSE], Peak-Signal-to-Noise Ratio [PSNR], Signal-to-Noise Ratio Improved [SNRI], Percentage Of Noise Attenuated [PONA], and Percentage Of Spoiled Pixels [POSP]. This is compared with standard algorithms already in use and improved performance of the proposed algorithm is presented. The advantage of the proposed algorithm is that a single algorithm can replace several independent algorithms which are required for removal of different artifacts.

Keywords: Filtering, Decision Based Algorithm, noise, imagerestoration.

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Authors: A. J. Al-Shareef, E. A. Mohamed, E. Al-Judaibi

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Load forecasting has become in recent years one of the major areas of research in electrical engineering. Most traditional forecasting models and artificial intelligence neural network techniques have been tried out in this task. Artificial neural networks (ANN) have lately received much attention, and a great number of papers have reported successful experiments and practical tests. This article presents the development of an ANN-based short-term load forecasting model with improved generalization technique for the Regional Power Control Center of Saudi Electricity Company, Western Operation Area (SEC-WOA). The proposed ANN is trained with weather-related data and historical electric load-related data using the data from the calendar years 2001, 2002, 2003, and 2004 for training. The model tested for one week at five different seasons, typically, winter, spring, summer, Ramadan and fall seasons, and the mean absolute average error for one hour-ahead load forecasting found 1.12%.

Keywords: Artificial neural networks, short-term load forecasting, back propagation.

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Authors: M. Arulvizhi

Abstract:

In Multiuser MIMO communication systems, interuser interference has a strong impact on the transmitted signals. Precoding technique schemes are employed for multiuser broadcast channels to suppress an interuser interference. Different Linear and nonlinear precoding schemes are there. For the massive system dimension, it is difficult to design an appropriate precoding algorithm with low computational complexity and good error rate performance at the same time over fading channels. This paper describes the error rate performance of precoding schemes over fading channels with the assumption of perfect channel state information at the transmitter. To estimate the bit error rate performance, different propagation environments namely, Rayleigh, Rician and Nakagami fading channels have been offered. This paper presents the error rate performance comparison of these fading channels based on precoding methods like Channel Inversion and Dirty paper coding for multiuser broadcasting system. MATLAB simulation has been used. It is observed that multiuser system achieves better error rate performance by Dirty paper coding over Rayleigh fading channel.

Keywords: Multiuser MIMO, channel inversion precoding, dirty paper coding, fading channels, BER.

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Authors: Nor Fazlina Iryani Abdul Hamid, Mohamad Khatim Hasan

Abstract:

Numbers of software quality measurement system have been implemented over the past few years, but none of them focuses on telecommunication industry. Software quality measurement system for telecommunication industry was a system that could calculate the quality value of the measured software that totally focused in telecommunication industry. Before designing a system, quality factors, quality attributes and quality metrics were identified based on literature review and survey. Then, using the identified quality factors, quality attributes and quality metrics, quality model for telecommunication industry was constructed. Each identified quality metrics had its own formula. Quality value for the system was measured based on the quality metrics and aggregated by referring to the quality model. It would classify the quality level of the software based on Net Satisfaction Index (NSI). The system was designed using object-oriented approach in web-based environment. Thus, existing of software quality measurement system was important to both developers and users in order to produce high quality software product for telecommunication industry.

Keywords: Software Quality, Quality Measurement, Object-oriented Approach, Net satisfaction Index.

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Authors: Ali Faal Ghayoumi, Mahmoud Dehghan Nayeri, Manouchehre Ansari, Taha Raeesi

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This study aims to investigate empirically the valuerelevance of accounting information to domestic investors in Tehran stock exchange from 1999 to 2006. During the present research impacts of two factors, including positive vs. negative earnings and the firm size are considered as well. The authors used earnings per share and annual change of earnings per share as the income statement indices, and book value of equity per share as the balance sheet index. Return and Price models through regression analysis are deployed in order to test the research hypothesis. Results depicted that accounting information is value-relevance to domestic investors in Tehran Stock Exchange according to both studied models. However, income statement information has more value-relevance than the balance sheet information. Furthermore, positive vs. negative earnings and firm size seems to have significant impact on valuerelevance of accounting information.

Keywords: Value-Relevance of Accounting Information, Iranianstock exchange, Return Model, Price Model

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Authors: S. A. Taher, A. Shemshadi

Abstract:

Power system stabilizers (PSS) must be capable of providing appropriate stabilization signals over a broad range of operating conditions and disturbance. Traditional PSS rely on robust linear design method in an attempt to cover a wider range of operating condition. Expert or rule-based controllers have also been proposed. Recently fuzzy logic (FL) as a novel robust control design method has shown promising results. The emphasis in fuzzy control design center is around uncertainties in the system parameters & operating conditions. In this paper a novel Robust Fuzzy Logic Power System Stabilizer (RFLPSS) design is proposed The RFLPSS basically utilizes only one measurable Δω signal as input (generator shaft speed). The speed signal is discretized resulting in three inputs to the RFLPSS. There are six rules for the fuzzification and two rules for defuzzification. To provide robustness, additional signal namely, speed are used as inputs to RFLPSS enabling appropriate gain adjustments for the three RFLPSS inputs. Simulation studies show the superior performance of the RFLPSS compared with an optimally designed conventional PSS and discrete mode FLPSS.

Keywords: Controller design, Fuzzy Logic, PID, Power SystemStabilizer, Robust control.

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Authors: Partha Banerjee, Aritra Acharyya, Arindam Biswas, A. K. Bhattacharjee, Amit Banerjee, Hiroshi Inokawa

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The effect of magnetic field on the noise performance of the magnetic field tunable avalanche transit time (MAGTATT) device based on Si, designed to operate at W-band (75 – 110 GHz), has been studied in this paper. A comprehensive two-dimensional (2D) model has been developed. The simulation results show that due to the presence of applied external transverse magnetic field, both the noise spectral density and noise measure of the MAGTATT device increase significantly. The noise performance of the device has been found to be further deteriorated if the magnetic field strength is further increased. Hence, in order to achieve the magnetic field tuning of the radio frequency (RF) properties of impact avalanche transit time (IMPATT) source, the noise performance of it has to be sacrificed in fair extent. Moreover, it clearly indicates that an IMPATT source must be covered with appropriate magnetic shielding material to avoid undesirable shift in operating frequency and output power and objectionable amount of deterioration in noise performance due to the presence of external magnetic field.

Keywords: 2-D model, IMPATT, MAGTATT, mm-wave, noise performance.

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Authors: Adtha Lawanna

Abstract:

Software maintenance is one of the essential processes of Software-Development Life Cycle. The main philosophies of retaining software concern the improvement of errors, the revision of codes, the inhibition of future errors, and the development in piece and capacity. While the adjustment has been employing, the software structure has to be retested to an upsurge a level of assurance that it will be prepared due to the requirements. According to this state, the test cases must be considered for challenging the revised modules and the whole software. A concept of resolving this problem is ongoing by regression test selection such as the retest-all selections, random/ad-hoc selection and the safe regression test selection. Particularly, the traditional techniques concern a mapping between the test cases in a test suite and the lines of code it executes. However, there are not only the lines of code as one of the requirements that can affect the size of test suite but including the number of functions and faulty versions. Therefore, a model for test case selection is developed to cover those three requirements by the integral technique which can produce the smaller size of the test cases when compared with the traditional regression selection techniques.

Keywords: Software maintenance, regression test selection, test case.

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Authors: Adtha Lawanna

Abstract:

Software maintenance is one of the essential processes of Software-Development Life Cycle. The main philosophies of retaining software concern the improvement of errors, the revision of codes, the inhibition of future errors, and the development in piece and capacity. While the adjustment has been employing, the software structure has to be retested to an upsurge a level of assurance that it will be prepared due to the requirements. According to this state, the test cases must be considered for challenging the revised modules and the whole software. A concept of resolving this problem is ongoing by regression test selection such as the retest-all selections, random/ad-hoc selection and the safe regression test selection. Particularly, the traditional techniques concern a mapping between the test cases in a test suite and the lines of code it executes. However, there are not only the lines of code as one of the requirements that can affect the size of test suite but including the number of functions and faulty versions. Therefore, a model for test case selection is developed to cover those three requirements by the integral technique which can produce the smaller size of the test cases when compared with the traditional regression selection techniques.

Keywords: Software maintenance, regression test selection, test case.

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Authors: Bandaris Shankar, Yohannes Yirga

Abstract:

In this paper, the problem of heat and mass transfer in unsteady MHD boundary-layer flow of nanofluids over stretching sheet with a non uniform heat source/sink is considered. The unsteadiness in the flow and temperature is caused by the time-dependent stretching velocity and surface temperature. The unsteady boundary layer equations are transformed to a system of non-linear ordinary differential equations and solved numerically using Keller box method. The velocity, temperature, and concentration profiles were obtained and utilized to compute the skin-friction coefficient, local Nusselt number, and local Sherwood number for different values of the governing parameters viz. solid volume fraction parameter, unsteadiness parameter, magnetic field parameter, Schmidt number, space-dependent and temperature-dependent parameters for heat source/sink. A comparison of the numerical results of the present study with previously published data revealed an excellent agreement.

Keywords: Manetohydrodynamics, nanofluid, non-uniform heat source/sink, unsteady.

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Authors: Y.C. Liu, S.J. Lu, Y.C. Weng, H. Su

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The objective of this paper is to investigate a new approach based on the idea of pictograms for food portion size. This approach adopts the model of the United States Pharmacopeia- Drug Information (USP-DI). The representation of each food portion size composed of three parts: frame, the connotation of dietary portion sizes and layout. To investigate users- comprehension based on this approach, two experiments were conducted, included 122 Taiwanese people, 60 male and 62 female with ages between 16 and 64 (divided into age groups of 16-30, 31-45 and 46-64). In Experiment 1, the mean correcting rate of the understanding level of food items is 48.54% (S.D.= 95.08) and the mean response time 2.89sec (S.D.=2.14). The difference on the correct rates for different age groups is significant (P*=0.00<0.05). In Experiment 2, the correcting rate of selecting the right life-size measurement aid is 65.02% (S.D.=21.31). The result showed the potential of the approach for certain food potion sizes. Issues raised for discussions including comprehension on numerous food varieties in an open environment, selection of photograph or drawing, reasons of different correcting rates for the measurement aid. This research also could be used for those interested in systematic and pictorial representation of dietary portion size information.

Keywords: Comprehension, Food Portion Size, Model of DietaryInformation, Pictogram Design, USP-DI.

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Authors: T. S. Moe, T. A. Khaing

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Chitosan is a derivative of chitin, a compound usually isolated from the shells of some crustaceans such as crab, lobster and shrimp. It has biocompatible, biodegradable, and antimicrobial properties. To use these properties of chitosan in biomedical fields, chitosan films (1%, 2%, 3% and 4%) were prepared by using l% lactic acid as solvent. The effects of chitosan films on tensile strength, elongation at break, degree of swelling, thickness, morphology, allergic and irritation reactions and antibacterial property were evaluated. Staphylococcus aureus and Escherichia coli were used as tested microorganisms. In vivo wound healing activities of chitosan films were investigated using mice model. As results, Chitosan films have similar appearance and good swelling properties and 4% chitosan film showed the better swelling activity and the greatest elongation ratio than the other chitosan films. They also showed their good activity of wound healing in mice model. Moreover, the results showed that the films did not produce any unwilling symptoms (allergy or irritation). In conclusion, it is evident that the chitosan film has the potentiality to use as wound healing biofilms in the biomedical fields.

Keywords: Chitosan, wound healing, antibacterial activity.

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Authors: Josip Visković, Josip Arnerić, Ante Rozga

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Based on the fact that volatility is time varying in high frequency data and that periods of high volatility tend to cluster, the most successful and popular models in modeling time varying volatility are GARCH type models. When financial returns exhibit sudden jumps that are due to structural breaks, standard GARCH models show high volatility persistence, i.e. integrated behavior of the conditional variance. In such situations models in which the parameters are allowed to change over time are more appropriate. This paper compares different GARCH models in terms of their ability to describe structural changes in returns caused by financial crisis at stock markets of six selected central and east European countries. The empirical analysis demonstrates that Markov regime switching GARCH model resolves the problem of excessive persistence and outperforms uni-regime GARCH models in forecasting volatility when sudden switching occurs in response to financial crisis.

Keywords: Central and east European countries, financial crisis, Markov switching GARCH model, transition probabilities.

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Authors: Li Wu

Abstract:

By using linear regression methodology to analyze the data of daily precipitation from 1961-2012, this paper studied the variation tendency of precipitation in Chenzhou. The outcome showed: (1) The annual precipitation was decreasing for 52 years and the difference of precipitation variation tendency among four seasons was remarkable. The precipitation of spring and autumn showed more remarkable decrease than of summer; but the precipitation of winter significantly increased. (2) The annual precipitation frequency tended to lower, which was consistent with the tendency of yearly variation. The seasonal precipitation frequency was greatly different, namely, precipitation frequency in spring and autumn decreased, co-occurring with the phenomenon of mutation; but the winter precipitation frequency increased notably. (3) The precipitation intensity displayed a tendency of increase, including spring, autumn and winter; among them, winter had the most obvious tendency to increase, and autumn had the most yearly variation. Summer was the only season with a tendency of decreasing in precipitation intensity. (4) Annual extreme precipitation tended to reduce, spring, summer and autumn are all included; whereas, winter extreme precipitation tended to increase at the rate of 0.1d/10a. (5) The daily maximum precipitation intensity increased slightly and it varied greatly.

Keywords: Chenzhou, precipitation variation, precipitation frequency, precipitation intensity.

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Authors: Cédric Damour, Michel Benne, Brigitte Grondin-Perez, Jean-Pierre Chabriat

Abstract:

Monitoring and control of cane sugar crystallization processes depend on the stability of the supersaturation (σ ) state. The most widely used information to represent σ is the electrical conductivity κ of the solutions. Nevertheless, previous studies point out the shortcomings of this approach: κ may be regarded as inappropriate to guarantee an accurate estimation of σ in impure solutions. To improve the process control efficiency, additional information is necessary. The mass of crystals in the solution ( c m ) and the solubility (mass ratio of sugar to water / s w m m ) are relevant to complete information. Indeed, c m inherently contains information about the mass balance and / s w m m contains information about the supersaturation state of the solution. The main problem is that c m and / s w m m are not available on-line. In this paper, a model based soft-sensor is presented for a final crystallization stage (C sugar). Simulation results obtained on industrial data show the reliability of this approach, c m and the crystal content ( cc ) being estimated with a sufficient accuracy for achieving on-line monitoring in industry

Keywords: Soft-sensor, on-line monitoring, cane sugarcrystallization.

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Authors: Ab. Rashid M.F.F., Gan S.Y., Muhammad N.Y.

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Surface roughness (Ra) is one of the most important requirements in machining process. In order to obtain better surface roughness, the proper setting of cutting parameters is crucial before the process take place. This research presents the development of mathematical model for surface roughness prediction before milling process in order to evaluate the fitness of machining parameters; spindle speed, feed rate and depth of cut. 84 samples were run in this study by using FANUC CNC Milling α-Τ14ιE. Those samples were randomly divided into two data sets- the training sets (m=60) and testing sets(m=24). ANOVA analysis showed that at least one of the population regression coefficients was not zero. Multiple Regression Method was used to determine the correlation between a criterion variable and a combination of predictor variables. It was established that the surface roughness is most influenced by the feed rate. By using Multiple Regression Method equation, the average percentage deviation of the testing set was 9.8% and 9.7% for training data set. This showed that the statistical model could predict the surface roughness with about 90.2% accuracy of the testing data set and 90.3% accuracy of the training data set.

Keywords: Surface roughness, regression analysis.

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Authors: Serife Gulden Yilmaz, Suleyman Karaman

Abstract:

Sheep breeding is important in terms of meeting both the demand of red meat consumption and the availability of industrial raw materials and the employment of the rural sector in Turkey. It is also very important to ensure the selection and continuity of the breeds that are raised in order to increase quality and productive products related to sheep breeding. The protection of local breeds and crossbreds also enables the development of the sector in the region and the reduction of imports. In this study, the data were obtained from the records of the Turkish Statistical Institute and Antalya Sheep & Goat Breeders' Association. Spatial distribution of sheep breeds in Antalya is reviewed statistically in terms of concentration at the local level for 2015 period spatially. For this reason; mapping, box plot, linear regression are used in this study. Concentration is introduced by means of studbook data on sheep breeding as locals and total sheep farm by mapping. It is observed that Pırlak breed (17.5%) and Merinos crossbreed (16.3%) have the highest concentration in the region. These breeds are respectively followed by Akkaraman breed (11%), Pirlak crossbreed (8%), Merinos breed (7.9%) Akkaraman crossbreed (7.9%) and Ivesi breed (7.2%).

Keywords: Antalya, sheep breeds, spatial distribution, local.

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Authors: Ahmad Forouzantabar

Abstract:

this paper presents a novel neural network controller with composite adaptation low to improve the trajectory tracking problems of biped robots comparing with classical controller. The biped model has 5_link and 6 degrees of freedom and actuated by Plated Pneumatic Artificial Muscle, which have a very high power to weight ratio and it has large stoke compared to similar actuators. The proposed controller employ a stable neural network in to approximate unknown nonlinear functions in the robot dynamics, thereby overcoming some limitation of conventional controllers such as PD or adaptive controllers and guarantee good performance. This NN controller significantly improve the accuracy requirements by retraining the basic PD/PID loop, but adding an inner adaptive loop that allows the controller to learn unknown parameters such as friction coefficient, therefore improving tracking accuracy. Simulation results plus graphical simulation in virtual reality show that NN controller tracking performance is considerably better than PD controller tracking performance.

Keywords: Biped robot, Neural network, Plated Pneumatic Artificial Muscle, Composite adaptation

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Authors: Ainon Syazana Ab. Hamid, Seripah Awang Kechil, Ahmad Sukri Abd. Aziz

Abstract:

The Marangoni convective instability in a horizontal fluid layer with the insoluble surfactant and nondeformable free surface is investigated. The surface tension at the free surface is linearly dependent on the temperature and concentration gradients. At the bottom surface, the temperature conditions of uniform temperature and uniform heat flux are considered. By linear stability theory, the exact analytical solutions for the steady Marangoni convection are derived and the marginal curves are plotted. The effects of surfactant or elasticity number, Lewis number and Biot number on the marginal Marangoni instability are assessed. The surfactant concentration gradients and the heat transfer mechanism at the free surface have stabilizing effects while the Lewis number destabilizes fluid system. The fluid system with uniform temperature condition at the bottom boundary is more stable than the fluid layer that is subjected to uniform heat flux at the bottom boundary.

Keywords: Analytical solutions, Marangoni Instability, Nondeformable free surface, Surfactant.

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