Search results for: Modeling of temperature fields
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 4988

Search results for: Modeling of temperature fields

218 From Industry 4.0 to Agriculture 4.0: A Framework to Manage Product Data in Agri-Food Supply Chain for Voluntary Traceability

Authors: Angelo Corallo, Maria Elena Latino, Marta Menegoli

Abstract:

Agri-food value chain involves various stakeholders with different roles. All of them abide by national and international rules and leverage marketing strategies to advance their products. Food products and related processing phases carry with it a big mole of data that are often not used to inform final customer. Some data, if fittingly identified and used, can enhance the single company, and/or the all supply chain creates a math between marketing techniques and voluntary traceability strategies. Moreover, as of late, the world has seen buying-models’ modification: customer is careful on wellbeing and food quality. Food citizenship and food democracy was born, leveraging on transparency, sustainability and food information needs. Internet of Things (IoT) and Analytics, some of the innovative technologies of Industry 4.0, have a significant impact on market and will act as a main thrust towards a genuine ‘4.0 change’ for agriculture. But, realizing a traceability system is not simple because of the complexity of agri-food supply chain, a lot of actors involved, different business models, environmental variations impacting products and/or processes, and extraordinary climate changes. In order to give support to the company involved in a traceability path, starting from business model analysis and related business process a Framework to Manage Product Data in Agri-Food Supply Chain for Voluntary Traceability was conceived. Studying each process task and leveraging on modeling techniques lead to individuate information held by different actors during agri-food supply chain. IoT technologies for data collection and Analytics techniques for data processing supply information useful to increase the efficiency intra-company and competitiveness in the market. The whole information recovered can be shown through IT solutions and mobile application to made accessible to the company, the entire supply chain and the consumer with the view to guaranteeing transparency and quality.

Keywords: Agriculture 4.0, agri-food supply chain, Industry 4.0, voluntary traceability.

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217 Using Business Intelligence Capabilities to Improve the Quality of Decision-Making: A Case Study of Mellat Bank

Authors: Jalal Haghighat Monfared, Zahra Akbari

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Today, business executives need to have useful information to make better decisions. Banks have also been using information tools so that they can direct the decision-making process in order to achieve their desired goals by rapidly extracting information from sources with the help of business intelligence. The research seeks to investigate whether there is a relationship between the quality of decision making and the business intelligence capabilities of Mellat Bank. Each of the factors studied is divided into several components, and these and their relationships are measured by a questionnaire. The statistical population of this study consists of all managers and experts of Mellat Bank's General Departments (including 190 people) who use commercial intelligence reports. The sample size of this study was 123 randomly determined by statistical method. In this research, relevant statistical inference has been used for data analysis and hypothesis testing. In the first stage, using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, the normalization of the data was investigated and in the next stage, the construct validity of both variables and their resulting indexes were verified using confirmatory factor analysis. Finally, using the structural equation modeling and Pearson's correlation coefficient, the research hypotheses were tested. The results confirmed the existence of a positive relationship between decision quality and business intelligence capabilities in Mellat Bank. Among the various capabilities, including data quality, correlation with other systems, user access, flexibility and risk management support, the flexibility of the business intelligence system was the most correlated with the dependent variable of the present research. This shows that it is necessary for Mellat Bank to pay more attention to choose the required business intelligence systems with high flexibility in terms of the ability to submit custom formatted reports. Subsequently, the quality of data on business intelligence systems showed the strongest relationship with quality of decision making. Therefore, improving the quality of data, including the source of data internally or externally, the type of data in quantitative or qualitative terms, the credibility of the data and perceptions of who uses the business intelligence system, improves the quality of decision making in Mellat Bank.

Keywords: Business intelligence, business intelligence capability, decision making, decision quality.

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216 Morphological and Electrical Characterization of Polyacrylonitrile Nanofibers Synthesized Using Electrospinning Method for Electrical Application

Authors: Divyanka Sontakke, Arpit Thakre, D. K Shinde, Sujata Parmeshwaran

Abstract:

Electrospinning is the most widely utilized method to create nanofibers because of the direct setup, the capacity to mass-deliver consistent nanofibers from different polymers, and the ability to produce ultrathin fibers with controllable diameters. Smooth and much arranged ultrafine Polyacrylonitrile (PAN) nanofibers with diameters going from submicron to nanometer were delivered utilizing Electrospinning technique. PAN powder was used as a precursor to prepare the solution utilized as a part of this process. At the point when the electrostatic repulsion contradicted surface tension, a charged stream of polymer solution was shot out from the head of the spinneret and along these lines ultrathin nonwoven fibers were created. The effect of electrospinning parameter such as applied voltage, feed rate, concentration of polymer solution and tip to collector distance on the morphology of electrospun PAN nanofibers were investigated. The nanofibers were heat treated for carbonization to examine the changes in properties and composition to make for electrical application. Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) was performed before and after carbonization to study electrical conductivity and morphological characterization. The SEM images have shown the uniform fiber diameter and no beads formation. The average diameter of the PAN fiber observed 365nm and 280nm for flat plat and rotating drum collector respectively. The four probe strategy was utilized to inspect the electrical conductivity of the nanofibers and the electrical conductivity is significantly improved with increase in oxidation temperature exposed.

Keywords: Electrospinning, polyacrylonitrile carbon nanofibres, heat treatment, electrical conductivity.

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215 Analysis of Climatic Strategies in Designing the Residential Buildings in Cold Dry Climate of Tabriz Metropolis to Reduce Air Pollution in Urban Environment

Authors: Shahryar Shaghaghi G., Paria Violette Shakiba , Gholamreza Irani

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Nowadays, the earth is countered with serious problem of air pollution. This problem has been started from the industrial revolution and has been faster in recent years, so that leads the earth to ecological and environmental disaster. One of its results is the global warming problem and its related increase in global temperature. The most important factors in air pollution especially in urban environments are Automobiles and residential buildings that are the biggest consumers of the fossil energies, so that if the residential buildings as a big part of the consumers of such energies reduce their consumption rate, the air pollution will be decreased. Since Metropolises are the main centers of air pollution in the world, assessment and analysis of efficient strategies in decreasing air pollution in such cities, can lead to the desirable and suitable results and can solve the problem at least in critical level. Tabriz city is one of the most important metropolises in North west of Iran that about two million people are living there. for its situation in cold dry climate, has a high rate of fossil energies consumption that make air pollution in its urban environment. These two factors, being both metropolis and in cold dry climate, make this article try to analyze the strategies of climatic design in old districts of the city and use them in new districts of the future. These strategies can be used in this city and other similar cities and pave the way to reduce energy consumption and related air pollution to save whole world.

Keywords: Air pollution, Urban Environment, Metropolis, Residential building, Fossil energies.

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214 Development of a Tilt-Rotor Aircraft Model Using System Identification Technique

Authors: Antonio Vitale, Nicola Genito, Giovanni Cuciniello, Ferdinando Montemari

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The introduction of tilt-rotor aircraft into the existing civilian air transportation system will provide beneficial effects due to tilt-rotor capability to combine the characteristics of a helicopter and a fixed-wing aircraft into one vehicle. The disposability of reliable tilt-rotor simulation models supports the development of such vehicle. Indeed, simulation models are required to design automatic control systems that increase safety, reduce pilot's workload and stress, and ensure the optimal aircraft configuration with respect to flight envelope limits, especially during the most critical flight phases such as conversion from helicopter to aircraft mode and vice versa. This article presents a process to build a simplified tilt-rotor simulation model, derived from the analysis of flight data. The model aims to reproduce the complex dynamics of tilt-rotor during the in-flight conversion phase. It uses a set of scheduled linear transfer functions to relate the autopilot reference inputs to the most relevant rigid body state variables. The model also computes information about the rotor flapping dynamics, which are useful to evaluate the aircraft control margin in terms of rotor collective and cyclic commands. The rotor flapping model is derived through a mixed theoretical-empirical approach, which includes physical analytical equations (applicable to helicopter configuration) and parametric corrective functions. The latter are introduced to best fit the actual rotor behavior and balance the differences existing between helicopter and tilt-rotor during flight. Time-domain system identification from flight data is exploited to optimize the model structure and to estimate the model parameters. The presented model-building process was applied to simulated flight data of the ERICA Tilt-Rotor, generated by using a high fidelity simulation model implemented in FlightLab environment. The validation of the obtained model was very satisfying, confirming the validity of the proposed approach.

Keywords: Flapping Dynamics, Flight Dynamics, System Identification, Tilt-Rotor Modeling and Simulation.

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213 Hydraulic Unbalance in Oil Injected Twin Rotary Screw Compressor Vibration Analysis (A Case History Related to Iran Oil Industries)

Authors: Omid A. Zargar

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Vibration analysis of screw compressors is one of the most challenging cases in preventive maintenance. This kind of equipment considered as vibration bad actor facilities in industrial plants. On line condition monitoring systems developed too much in recent years. The high frequency vibration of ball bearings, gears, male and female caused complex fast Fourier transform (FFT) and time wave form (TWF) in screw compressors. The male and female randomly are sent to balance shop for balancing operation. This kind of operation usually caused some bending in rotors during the process that could cause further machining in such equipment. This kind of machining operation increased the vibration analysis complexity beside some process characteristic abnormality like inlet and out let pressure and temperature. In this paper mechanical principal and different type of screw compressors explained. Besides, some new condition monitoring systems and techniques for screw compressors discussed. Finally, one of the common behavior of oil injected twin rotary screw compressors called hydraulic unbalance that usually occurred after machining operation of male or female and have some specific characteristics in FFT and TWF discussed in details through a case history related to Iran oil industries.

Keywords: Vibration analysis, twin screw compressor, oil injected screw compressor, time wave form (TWF), fast Fourier transform (FFT), Hydraulic unbalance and rotor unbalance.

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212 Conditions of the Anaerobic Digestion of Biomass

Authors: N. Boontian

Abstract:

Biological conversion of biomass to methane has received increasing attention in recent years. Grasses have been explored for their potential anaerobic digestion to methane. In this review, extensive literature data have been tabulated and classified. The influences of several parameters on the potential of these feedstocks to produce methane are presented. Lignocellulosic biomass represents a mostly unused source for biogas and ethanol production. Many factors, including lignin content, crystallinity of cellulose, and particle size, limit the digestibility of the hemicellulose and cellulose present in the lignocellulosic biomass. Pretreatments have used to improve the digestibility of the lignocellulosic biomass. Each pretreatment has its own effects on cellulose, hemicellulose and lignin, the three main components of lignocellulosic biomass. Solidstate anaerobic digestion (SS-AD) generally occurs at solid concentrations higher than 15%. In contrast, liquid anaerobic digestion (AD) handles feedstocks with solid concentrations between 0.5% and 15%. Animal manure, sewage sludge, and food waste are generally treated by liquid AD, while organic fractions of municipal solid waste (OFMSW) and lignocellulosic biomass such as crop residues and energy crops can be processed through SS-AD. An increase in operating temperature can improve both the biogas yield and the production efficiency, other practices such as using AD digestate or leachate as an inoculant or decreasing the solid content may increase biogas yield but have negative impact on production efficiency. Focus is placed on substrate pretreatment in anaerobic digestion (AD) as a means of increasing biogas yields using today’s diversified substrate sources.

Keywords: Anaerobic digestion, Lignocellulosic biomass, Methane production, Optimization, Pretreatment.

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211 Effect of Three Drying Methods on Antioxidant Efficiency and Vitamin C Content of Moringa oleifera Leaf Extract

Authors: Kenia Martínez, Geniel Talavera, Juan Alonso

Abstract:

Moringa oleifera is a plant containing many nutrients that are mostly concentrated within the leaves. Commonly, the separation process of these nutrients involves solid-liquid extraction followed by evaporation and drying to obtain a concentrated extract, which is rich in proteins, vitamins, carbohydrates, and other essential nutrients that can be used in the food industry. In this work, three drying methods were used, which involved very different temperature and pressure conditions, to evaluate the effect of each method on the vitamin C content and the antioxidant efficiency of the extracts. Solid-liquid extractions of Moringa leaf (LE) were carried out by employing an ethanol solution (35% v/v) at 50 °C for 2 hours. The resulting extracts were then dried i) in a convective oven (CO) at 100 °C and at an atmospheric pressure of 750 mbar for 8 hours, ii) in a vacuum evaporator (VE) at 50 °C and at 300 mbar for 2 hours, and iii) in a freeze-drier (FD) at -40 °C and at 0.050 mbar for 36 hours. The antioxidant capacity (EC50, mg solids/g DPPH) of the dry solids was calculated by the free radical inhibition method employing DPPH˙ at 517 nm, resulting in a value of 2902.5 ± 14.8 for LE, 3433.1 ± 85.2 for FD, 3980.1 ± 37.2 for VE, and 8123.5 ± 263.3 for CO. The calculated antioxidant efficiency (AE, g DPPH/(mg solids·min)) was 2.920 × 10-5 for LE, 2.884 × 10-5 for FD, 2.512 × 10-5 for VE, and 1.009 × 10-5 for CO. Further, the content of vitamin C (mg/L) determined by HPLC was 59.0 ± 0.3 for LE, 49.7 ± 0.6 for FD, 45.0 ± 0.4 for VE, and 23.6 ± 0.7 for CO. The results indicate that the convective drying preserves vitamin C and antioxidant efficiency to 40% and 34% of the initial value, respectively, while vacuum drying to 76% and 86%, and freeze-drying to 84% and 98%, respectively.

Keywords: Antioxidant efficiency, convective drying, freeze-drying, Moringa oleifera, vacuum drying, vitamin C content.

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210 Effect of Injection Moulding Process Parameter on Tensile Strength Using Taguchi Method

Authors: Gurjeet Singh, M. K. Pradhan, Ajay Verma

Abstract:

The plastic industry plays very important role in the economy of any country. It is generally among the leading share of the economy of the country. Since metals and their alloys are very rarely available on the earth. Therefore, to produce plastic products and components, which finds application in many industrial as well as household consumer products is beneficial. Since 50% plastic products are manufactured by injection moulding process. For production of better quality product, we have to control quality characteristics and performance of the product. The process parameters plays a significant role in production of plastic, hence the control of process parameter is essential. In this paper the effect of the parameters selection on injection moulding process has been described. It is to define suitable parameters in producing plastic product. Selecting the process parameter by trial and error is neither desirable nor acceptable, as it is often tends to increase the cost and time. Hence, optimization of processing parameter of injection moulding process is essential. The experiments were designed with Taguchi’s orthogonal array to achieve the result with least number of experiments. Plastic material polypropylene is studied. Tensile strength test of material is done on universal testing machine, which is produced by injection moulding machine. By using Taguchi technique with the help of MiniTab-14 software the best value of injection pressure, melt temperature, packing pressure and packing time is obtained. We found that process parameter packing pressure contribute more in production of good tensile plastic product.

Keywords: Injection moulding, tensile strength, Taguchi method, poly-propylene.

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209 Quantification of Biomethane Potential from Anaerobic Digestion of Food Waste at Vaal University of Technology

Authors: Kgomotso Matobole, Pascal Mwenge, Tumisang Seodigeng

Abstract:

The global urbanisation and worldwide economic growth have caused a high rate of food waste generation, resulting in environmental pollution. Food waste disposed on landfills decomposes to produce methane (CH4), a greenhouse gas. Inadequate waste management practices contribute to food waste polluting the environment. Thus effective organic fraction of municipal solid waste (OFMSW) management and treatment are attracting widespread attention in many countries. This problem can be minimised by the employment of anaerobic digestion process, since food waste is rich in organic matter and highly biodegradable, resulting in energy generation and waste volume reduction. The current study investigated the Biomethane Potential (BMP) of the Vaal University of Technology canteen food waste using anaerobic digestion. Tests were performed on canteen food waste, as a substrate, with total solids (TS) of 22%, volatile solids (VS) of 21% and moisture content of 78%. The tests were performed in batch reactors, at a mesophilic temperature of 37 °C, with two different types of inoculum, primary and digested sludge. The resulting CH4 yields for both food waste with digested sludge and primary sludge were equal, being 357 Nml/g VS. This indicated that food waste form this canteen is rich in organic and highly biodegradable. Hence it can be used as a substrate for the anaerobic digestion process. The food waste with digested sludge and primary sludge both fitted the first order kinetic model with k for primary sludge inoculated food waste being 0.278 day-1 with R2 of 0.98, whereas k for digested sludge inoculated food waste being 0.034 day-1, with R2 of 0.847.

Keywords: Anaerobic digestion, biogas, biomethane potential, food waste.

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208 The Effects of Shot and Grit Blasting Process Parameters on Steel Pipes Coating Adhesion

Authors: Saeed Khorasanizadeh

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Adhesion strength of exterior or interior coating of steel pipes is too important. Increasing of coating adhesion on surfaces can increase the life time of coating, safety factor of transmitting line pipe and decreasing the rate of corrosion and costs. Preparation of steel pipe surfaces before doing the coating process is done by shot and grit blasting. This is a mechanical way to do it. Some effective parameters on that process, are particle size of abrasives, distance to surface, rate of abrasive flow, abrasive physical properties, shapes, selection of abrasive, kind of machine and its power, standard of surface cleanness degree, roughness, time of blasting and weather humidity. This search intended to find some better conditions which improve the surface preparation, adhesion strength and corrosion resistance of coating. So, this paper has studied the effect of varying abrasive flow rate, changing the abrasive particle size, time of surface blasting on steel surface roughness and over blasting on it by using the centrifugal blasting machine. After preparation of numbers of steel samples (according to API 5L X52) and applying epoxy powder coating on them, to compare strength adhesion of coating by Pull-Off test. The results have shown that, increasing the abrasive particles size and flow rate, can increase the steel surface roughness and coating adhesion strength but increasing the blasting time can do surface over blasting and increasing surface temperature and hardness too, change, decreasing steel surface roughness and coating adhesion strength.

Keywords: surface preparation, abrasive particles, adhesionstrength

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207 Exploration of Hydrocarbon Unconventional Accumulations in the Argillaceous Formation of the Autochthonous Miocene Succession in the Carpathian Foredeep

Authors: Wojciech Górecki, Anna Sowiżdżał, Grzegorz Machowski, Tomasz Maćkowski, Bartosz Papiernik, Michał Stefaniuk

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The article shows results of the project which aims at evaluating possibilities of effective development and exploitation of natural gas from argillaceous series of the Autochthonous Miocene in the Carpathian Foredeep. To achieve the objective, the research team develop a world-trend based but unique methodology of processing and interpretation, adjusted to data, local variations and petroleum characteristics of the area. In order to determine the zones in which maximum volumes of hydrocarbons might have been generated and preserved as shale gas reservoirs, as well as to identify the most preferable well sites where largest gas accumulations are anticipated a number of task were accomplished. Evaluation of petrophysical properties and hydrocarbon saturation of the Miocene complex is based on laboratory measurements as well as interpretation of well-logs and archival data. The studies apply mercury porosimetry (MICP), micro CT and nuclear magnetic resonance imaging (using the Rock Core Analyzer). For prospective location (e.g. central part of Carpathian Foredeep – Brzesko-Wojnicz area) reprocessing and reinterpretation of detailed seismic survey data with the use of integrated geophysical investigations has been made. Construction of quantitative, structural and parametric models for selected areas of the Carpathian Foredeep is performed on the basis of integrated, detailed 3D computer models. Modeling are carried on with the Schlumberger’s Petrel software. Finally, prospective zones are spatially contoured in a form of regional 3D grid, which will be framework for generation modelling and comprehensive parametric mapping, allowing for spatial identification of the most prospective zones of unconventional gas accumulation in the Carpathian Foredeep. Preliminary results of research works indicate a potentially prospective area for occurrence of unconventional gas accumulations in the Polish part of Carpathian Foredeep.

Keywords: Autochthonous Miocene, Carpathian Foredeep, Poland, shale gas.

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206 A Dataset of Program Educational Objectives Mapped to ABET Outcomes: Data Cleansing, Exploratory Data Analysis and Modeling

Authors: Addin Osman, Anwar Ali Yahya, Mohammed Basit Kamal

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Datasets or collections are becoming important assets by themselves and now they can be accepted as a primary intellectual output of a research. The quality and usage of the datasets depend mainly on the context under which they have been collected, processed, analyzed, validated, and interpreted. This paper aims to present a collection of program educational objectives mapped to student’s outcomes collected from self-study reports prepared by 32 engineering programs accredited by ABET. The manual mapping (classification) of this data is a notoriously tedious, time consuming process. In addition, it requires experts in the area, which are mostly not available. It has been shown the operational settings under which the collection has been produced. The collection has been cleansed, preprocessed, some features have been selected and preliminary exploratory data analysis has been performed so as to illustrate the properties and usefulness of the collection. At the end, the collection has been benchmarked using nine of the most widely used supervised multiclass classification techniques (Binary Relevance, Label Powerset, Classifier Chains, Pruned Sets, Random k-label sets, Ensemble of Classifier Chains, Ensemble of Pruned Sets, Multi-Label k-Nearest Neighbors and Back-Propagation Multi-Label Learning). The techniques have been compared to each other using five well-known measurements (Accuracy, Hamming Loss, Micro-F, Macro-F, and Macro-F). The Ensemble of Classifier Chains and Ensemble of Pruned Sets have achieved encouraging performance compared to other experimented multi-label classification methods. The Classifier Chains method has shown the worst performance. To recap, the benchmark has achieved promising results by utilizing preliminary exploratory data analysis performed on the collection, proposing new trends for research and providing a baseline for future studies.

Keywords: Benchmark collection, program educational objectives, student outcomes, ABET, Accreditation, machine learning, supervised multiclass classification, text mining.

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205 Influence of Yeast Strains on Microbiological Stability of Wheat Bread

Authors: E. Soboleva, E. Sergachyova, S. G. Davydenko, T. V. Meledina

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Problem of food preservation is extremely important for mankind. Viscous damage ("illness") of bread results from development of Bacillus spp. bacteria. High temperature resistant spores of this microorganism are steady against 120°C) and remain in bread during pastries, potentially causing spoilage of the final product. Scientists are interested in further characterization of bread spoiling Bacillus spp. species. Our aim was to find weather yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae strains that are able to produce natural antimicrobial killer factor can preserve bread illness. By diffusion method, we showed yeast antagonistic activity against spore-forming bacteria. Experimental technological parameters were the same as for bakers' yeasts production on the industrial scale. Risograph test during dough fermentation demonstrated gas production. The major finding of the study was a clear indication of the presence of killer yeast strain antagonistic activity against rope in bread causing bacteria. After demonstrating antagonistic effect of S. cerevisiae on bacteria using solid nutrient medium, we tested baked bread under provocative conditions. We also measured formation of carbon dioxide in the dough, dough-making duration and quality of the final products, when using different strains of S. cerevisiae. It is determined that the use of yeast S. cerevisiae RCAM 01730 killer strain inhibits appearance of rope in bread. Thus, natural yeast antimicrobial killer toxin, produced by some S. cerevisiae strains is an anti-rope in bread protector.

Keywords: Bakers' yeasts, rope in bread, Saccharomyces cerevisiae.

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204 Removal of Elemental Mercury from Dry Methane Gas with Manganese Oxides

Authors: Junya Takenami, Md. Azhar Uddin, Eiji Sasaoka, Yasushi Shioya, Tsuneyoshi Takase

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In this study, we sought to investigate the mercury removal efficiency of manganese oxides from natural gas. The fundamental studies on mercury removal with manganese oxides sorbents were carried out in a laboratory scale fixed bed reactor at 30 °C with a mixture of methane (20%) and nitrogen gas laden with 4.8 ppb of elemental mercury. Manganese oxides with varying surface area and crystalline phase were prepared by conventional precipitation method in this study. The effects of surface area, crystallinity and other metal oxides on mercury removal efficiency were investigated. Effect of Ag impregnation on mercury removal efficiency was also investigated. Ag supported on metal oxide such titania and zirconia as reference materials were also used in this study for comparison. The characteristics of mercury removal reaction with manganese oxide was investigated using a temperature programmed desorption (TPD) technique. Manganese oxides showed very high Hg removal activity (about 73-93% Hg removal) for first time use. Surface area of the manganese oxide samples decreased after heat-treatment and resulted in complete loss of Hg removal ability for repeated use after Hg desorption in the case of amorphous MnO2, and 75% loss of the initial Hg removal activity for the crystalline MnO2. Mercury desorption efficiency of crystalline MnO2 was very low (37%) for first time use and high (98%) after second time use. Residual potassium content in MnO2 may have some effect on the thermal stability of the adsorbed Hg species. Desorption of Hg from manganese oxides occurs at much higher temperatures (with a peak at 400 °C) than Ag/TiO2 or Ag/ZrO2. Mercury may be captured on manganese oxides in the form of mercury manganese oxide.

Keywords: Mercury removal, Metal and metal oxide sorbents, Methane, Natural gas.

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203 Numerical Simulation of the Flowing of Ice Slurry in Seawater Pipe of Polar Ships

Authors: Li Xu, Huanbao Jiang, Zhenfei Huang, Lailai Zhang

Abstract:

In recent years, as global warming, the sea-ice extent of North Arctic undergoes an evident decrease and Arctic channel has attracted the attention of shipping industry. Ice crystals existing in the seawater of Arctic channel which enter the seawater system of the ship with the seawater were found blocking the seawater pipe. The appearance of cooler paralysis, auxiliary machine error and even ship power system paralysis may be happened if seriously. In order to reduce the effect of high temperature in auxiliary equipment, seawater system will use external ice-water to participate in the cooling cycle and achieve the state of its flow. The distribution of ice crystals in seawater pipe can be achieved. As the ice slurry system is solid liquid two-phase system, the flow process of ice-water mixture is very complex and diverse. In this paper, the flow process in seawater pipe of ice slurry is simulated with fluid dynamics simulation software based on k-ε turbulence model. As the ice packing fraction is a key factor effecting the distribution of ice crystals, the influence of ice packing fraction on the flowing process of ice slurry is analyzed. In this work, the simulation results show that as the ice packing fraction is relatively large, the distribution of ice crystals is uneven in the flowing process of the seawater which has such disadvantage as increase the possibility of blocking, that will provide scientific forecasting methods for the forming of ice block in seawater piping system. It has important significance for the reliability of the operating of polar ships in the future.

Keywords: Ice slurry, seawater pipe, ice packing fraction, numerical simulation.

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202 Simulation and Optimization of Mechanisms made of Micro-molded Components

Authors: Albert Albers, Pablo Enrique Leslabay

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The Institute of Product Development is dealing with the development, design and dimensioning of micro components and systems as a member of the Collaborative Research Centre 499 “Design, Production and Quality Assurance of Molded micro components made of Metallic and Ceramic Materials". Because of technological restrictions in the miniaturization of conventional manufacturing techniques, shape and material deviations cannot be scaled down in the same proportion as the micro parts, rendering components with relatively wide tolerance fields. Systems that include such components should be designed with this particularity in mind, often requiring large clearance. On the end, the output of such systems results variable and prone to dynamical instability. To save production time and resources, every study of these effects should happen early in the product development process and base on computer simulation to avoid costly prototypes. A suitable method is proposed here and exemplary applied to a micro technology demonstrator developed by the CRC499. It consists of a one stage planetary gear train in a sun-planet-ring configuration, with input through the sun gear and output through the carrier. The simulation procedure relies on ordinary Multi Body Simulation methods and subsequently adds other techniques to further investigate details of the system-s behavior and to predict its response. The selection of the relevant parameters and output functions followed the engineering standards for regular sized gear trains. The first step is to quantify the variability and to reveal the most critical points of the system, performed through a whole-mechanism Sensitivity Analysis. Due to the lack of previous knowledge about the system-s behavior, different DOE methods involving small and large amount of experiments were selected to perform the SA. In this particular case the parameter space can be divided into two well defined groups, one of them containing the gear-s profile information and the other the components- spatial location. This has been exploited to explore the different DOE techniques more promptly. A reduced set of parameters is derived for further investigation and to feed the final optimization process, whether as optimization parameters or as external perturbation collective. The 10 most relevant perturbation factors and 4 to 6 prospective variable parameters are considered in a new, simplified model. All of the parameters are affected by the mentioned production variability. The objective functions of interest are based on scalar output-s variability measures, so the problem becomes an optimization under robustness and reliability constrains. The study shows an initial step on the development path of a method to design and optimize complex micro mechanisms composed of wide tolerated elements accounting for the robustness and reliability of the systems- output.

Keywords: Micro molded components, Optimization, Robustness und Reliability, Simulation

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201 Study of Mechanical Properties of Glutarylated Jute Fiber Reinforced Epoxy Composites

Authors: V. Manush Nandan, K. Lokdeep, R. Vimal, K. Hari Hara Subramanyan, C. Aswin, V. Logeswaran

Abstract:

Natural fibers have attained the potential market in the composite industry because of the huge environmental impact caused by synthetic fibers. Among the natural fibers, jute fibers are the most abundant plant fibers which are manufactured mainly in countries like India. Even though there is a good motive to utilize the natural supplement, the strength of the natural fiber composites is still a topic of discussion. In recent days, many researchers are showing interest in the chemical modification of the natural fibers to increase various mechanical and thermal properties. In the present study, jute fibers have been modified chemically using glutaric anhydride at different concentrations of 5%, 10%, 20%, and 30%. The glutaric anhydride solution is prepared by dissolving the different quantity of glutaric anhydride in benzene and dimethyl-sulfoxide using sodium formate catalyst. The jute fiber mats have been treated by the method of retting at various time intervals of 3, 6, 12, 24, and 36 hours. The modification structure of the treated fibers has been confirmed with infrared spectroscopy. The degree of modification increases with an increase in retention time, but higher retention time has damaged the fiber structure. The unmodified fibers and glutarylated fibers at different retention times are reinforced with epoxy matrix under room temperature. The tensile strength and flexural strength of the composites are analyzed in detail. Among these, the composite made with glutarylated fiber has shown good mechanical properties when compared to those made of unmodified fiber.

Keywords: Flexural properties, glutarylation, glutaric anhydride, tensile properties.

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200 Electricity Price Forecasting: A Comparative Analysis with Shallow-ANN and DNN

Authors: Fazıl Gökgöz, Fahrettin Filiz

Abstract:

Electricity prices have sophisticated features such as high volatility, nonlinearity and high frequency that make forecasting quite difficult. Electricity price has a volatile and non-random character so that, it is possible to identify the patterns based on the historical data. Intelligent decision-making requires accurate price forecasting for market traders, retailers, and generation companies. So far, many shallow-ANN (artificial neural networks) models have been published in the literature and showed adequate forecasting results. During the last years, neural networks with many hidden layers, which are referred to as DNN (deep neural networks) have been using in the machine learning community. The goal of this study is to investigate electricity price forecasting performance of the shallow-ANN and DNN models for the Turkish day-ahead electricity market. The forecasting accuracy of the models has been evaluated with publicly available data from the Turkish day-ahead electricity market. Both shallow-ANN and DNN approach would give successful result in forecasting problems. Historical load, price and weather temperature data are used as the input variables for the models. The data set includes power consumption measurements gathered between January 2016 and December 2017 with one-hour resolution. In this regard, forecasting studies have been carried out comparatively with shallow-ANN and DNN models for Turkish electricity markets in the related time period. The main contribution of this study is the investigation of different shallow-ANN and DNN models in the field of electricity price forecast. All models are compared regarding their MAE (Mean Absolute Error) and MSE (Mean Square) results. DNN models give better forecasting performance compare to shallow-ANN. Best five MAE results for DNN models are 0.346, 0.372, 0.392, 0,402 and 0.409.

Keywords: Deep learning, artificial neural networks, energy price forecasting, Turkey.

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199 Contribution of Vitaton (Β-Carotene) to the Rearing Factors Survival Rate and Visual Flesh Color of Rainbow Trout Fish in Comparison With Astaxanthin

Authors: M.Ghotbi, M.Ghotbi, Gh. Azari Takami

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In this study Vitaton (an organic supplement which contains fermentative β-carotene) and synthetic astaxanthin (CAROPHYLL® Pink) were evaluated as pro-growth factors in Rainbow trout diet. An 8 week feeding trial was conducted to determine the effects of Vitaton versus astaxanthin on rearing factors, survival rate and visual flesh color of Rainbow trout (Oncorhnchynchus mykiss) with initial weight of 196±5. Four practical diets were formulated to contain 50 and 80 (ppm) of β- carotene and astaxanthin and also a control diet was prepared without any pigment. Each diet was fed to triplicate groups of fish rearing in fresh water. Fish were fed twice daily. The water temperature fluctuated from 12 to 15 (C˚) and also dissolved oxygen content was between 7 to 7.5 (mg/lit) during the experimental period. At the end of the experiment, growth and food utilization parameters and survival rate were unaffected by dietary treatments (p>0.05). Also, there was no significant difference between carcass yield within treatments (p>0.05). No significant difference recognized between visual flesh color (SalmoFan score) of fish fed Vitaton-containing diets. On the contrary, feeding on diets containing 50 and 80 (ppm) of astaxanthin, increased SalmoFan score (flesh astaxanthin concentration) from <20 (<1 mg/kg) to 23.33 (2.03 mg/kg) and 27.67 (5.74 mg/kg), respectively. Ultimately, a significant difference was seen between flesh carotenoid concentrations of fish feeding on astaxanthin containing treatments and control treatment (P<0.05). It should be mentioned that just raw fillet color of fish belonged to 80 (ppm) of astaxanthin treatment was seen to be close to color targets (SalmoFan scores) adopted for harvest-size fish.

Keywords: Astaxanthin, Flesh color, Rainbow trout, Vitaton, β- carotene,

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198 CFD-Parametric Study in Stator Heat Transfer of an Axial Flux Permanent Magnet Machine

Authors: Alireza Rasekh, Peter Sergeant, Jan Vierendeels

Abstract:

This paper copes with the numerical simulation for convective heat transfer in the stator disk of an axial flux permanent magnet (AFPM) electrical machine. Overheating is one of the main issues in the design of AFMPs, which mainly occurs in the stator disk, so that it needs to be prevented. A rotor-stator configuration with 16 magnets at the periphery of the rotor is considered. Air is allowed to flow through openings in the rotor disk and channels being formed between the magnets and in the gap region between the magnets and the stator surface. The rotating channels between the magnets act as a driving force for the air flow. The significant non-dimensional parameters are the rotational Reynolds number, the gap size ratio, the magnet thickness ratio, and the magnet angle ratio. The goal is to find correlations for the Nusselt number on the stator disk according to these non-dimensional numbers. Therefore, CFD simulations have been performed with the multiple reference frame (MRF) technique to model the rotary motion of the rotor and the flow around and inside the machine. A minimization method is introduced by a pattern-search algorithm to find the appropriate values of the reference temperature. It is found that the correlations are fast, robust and is capable of predicting the stator heat transfer with a good accuracy. The results reveal that the magnet angle ratio diminishes the stator heat transfer, whereas the rotational Reynolds number and the magnet thickness ratio improve the convective heat transfer. On the other hand, there a certain gap size ratio at which the stator heat transfer reaches a maximum.

Keywords: Axial flux permanent magnet, CFD, magnet parameters, stator heat transfer.

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197 A Comparative Study of Single- and Multi-Walled Carbon Nanotube Incorporation to Indium Tin Oxide Electrodes for Solar Cells

Authors: G. Gokceli, O. Eksik, E. Ozkan Zayim, N. Karatepe

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Alternative electrode materials for optoelectronic devices have been widely investigated in recent years. Since indium tin oxide (ITO) is the most preferred transparent conductive electrode, producing ITO films by simple and cost-effective solution-based techniques with enhanced optical and electrical properties has great importance. In this study, single- and multi-walled carbon nanotubes (SWCNT and MWCNT) incorporated into the ITO structure to increase electrical conductivity, mechanical strength, and chemical stability. Carbon nanotubes (CNTs) were firstly functionalized by acid treatment (HNO3:H2SO4), and the thermal resistance of CNTs after functionalization was determined by thermogravimetric analysis (TGA). Thin films were then prepared by spin coating technique and characterized by scanning electron microscopy (SEM), X-ray diffraction (XRD), four-point probe measurement system and UV-Vis spectrophotometer. The effects of process parameters were compared for ITO, MWCNT-ITO, and SWCNT-ITO films. Two factors including CNT concentration and annealing temperature were considered. The UV-Vis measurements demonstrated that the transmittance of ITO films was 83.58% at 550 nm, which was decreased depending on the concentration of CNT dopant. On the other hand, both CNT dopants provided an enhancement in the crystalline structure and electrical conductivity. Due to compatible diameter and better dispersibility of SWCNTs in the ITO solution, the best result in terms of electrical conductivity was obtained by SWCNT-ITO films with the 0.1 g/L SWCNT dopant concentration and heat-treatment at 550 °C for 1 hour.

Keywords: CNT incorporation, ITO electrode, spin coating, thin film.

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196 Design and Modeling of Human Middle Ear for Harmonic Response Analysis

Authors: Shende Suraj Balu, A. B. Deoghare, K. M. Pandey

Abstract:

The human middle ear (ME) is a delicate and vital organ. It has a complex structure that performs various functions such as receiving sound pressure and producing vibrations of eardrum and propagating it to inner ear. It consists of Tympanic Membrane (TM), three auditory ossicles, various ligament structures and muscles. Incidents such as traumata, infections, ossification of ossicular structures and other pathologies may damage the ME organs. The conditions can be surgically treated by employing prosthesis. However, the suitability of the prosthesis needs to be examined in advance prior to the surgery. Few decades ago, this issue was addressed and analyzed by developing an equivalent representation either in the form of spring mass system, electrical system using R-L-C circuit or developing an approximated CAD model. But, nowadays a three-dimensional ME model can be constructed using micro X-Ray Computed Tomography (μCT) scan data. Moreover, the concern about patient specific integrity pertaining to the disease can be examined well in advance. The current research work emphasizes to develop the ME model from the stacks of μCT images which are used as input file to MIMICS Research 19.0 (Materialise Interactive Medical Image Control System) software. A stack of CT images is converted into geometrical surface model to build accurate morphology of ME. The work is further extended to understand the dynamic behaviour of Harmonic response of the stapes footplate and umbo for different sound pressure levels applied at lateral side of eardrum using finite element approach. The pathological condition Cholesteatoma of ME is investigated to obtain peak to peak displacement of stapes footplate and umbo. Apart from this condition, other pathologies, mainly, changes in the stiffness of stapedial ligament, TM thickness and ossicular chain separation and fixation are also explored. The developed model of ME for pathologies is validated by comparing the results available in the literatures and also with the results of a normal ME to calculate the percentage loss in hearing capability.

Keywords: Computed tomography, human middle ear, harmonic response, pathologies, tympanic membrane.

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195 Spanner Barb at Thepchana Waterfall, Khao Nan National Park, Thailand

Authors: S. Sutin, M. Pollar, M. Jaroensutasinee, K. Jaroensutasinee

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This study investigated morphology of the Spanner Barb (Puntius lateristriga Valenciennes, 1842) and water quality at Thepchana waterfall. This study was conducted at Thepchana Waterfall, Khao Nan National Park from March to May 2007. There were 40 Spanner Barb collected with 20 males and 20 females. Males had an average of 5.57 cm in standard length, 6.62 cm in total length and 5.18 g in total body weight. Females had an average of 7.25 cm in standard length, 8.24 cm in total length and 10.96 g in total body weight. The length (L) – weight (W) relationships for combining sexes, males and females were LogW = -2.137 + 3.355logL, log W = -0.068 + 3.297logL, and log W = -2.068 + 3.297logL, respectively. The Spanner Barb were smaller size fish with a compressed form; terminal mouth; villiform teeth; ctenoid scale; concave tail; general body color yellowish olive, with slight reddish tint to fins; vertical band beginning below dorsal and horizontal stripe from base of tail almost to vertical band. They also had a vertical band midway between the eye and first vertical band. There was a black spot above anal fin. The bladder looked like J-shape. Inside of the bladder was found small insects and insect lava. The body length and the bowels length was 1:1 ratio. The water temperature ranged from 25.00 – 27.00 °C which was appropriate for their habitat characteristics. Acid - alkalinity ranged from 6.65 – 6.90 mg/l. Dissolved oxygen ranged from 4.55 – 4.70 mg/l. Water hardness ranged from 31.00 – 48.00 mg/l. The amount of ammonia was about 0.25 mg/l.

Keywords: Spanner barb, morphology, water quality.

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194 Effect of Sodium Hydroxide Treatment on the Mechanical Properties of Crushed and Uncrushed Luffa cylindrica Fibre Reinforced rLDPE Composites

Authors: Paschal A. Ubi, Salawu Abdul Rahman Asipita

Abstract:

Sustainability and eco-friendly requirement of engineering materials are sort for in recent times, thus giving rise to the development of bio-composites. However, the natural fibres to matrix interface interactions remain a key issue in getting the desired mechanical properties from such composites. Treatment of natural fibres is essential in improving matrix to filler adhesion, hence improving its mechanical properties. In this study, investigations were carried out to determine the effect of sodium hydroxide treatment on the tensile, flexural, impact and hardness properties of crushed and uncrushed Luffa cylindrica fibre reinforced recycled low density polyethylene composites. The LC (Luffa cylindrica) fibres were treated with 0%, 2%, 4%, 6%, 8% and 10% wt. sodium hydroxide (NaOH) concentrations for a period of 24 hours under room temperature conditions. A formulation ratio of 80/20 g (matrix to reinforcement) was maintained for all developed samples. Analysis of the results showed that the uncrushed luffa fibre samples gave better mechanical properties compared with the crushed luffa fibre samples. The uncrushed luffa fibre composites had a maximum tensile and flexural strength of 7.65 MPa and 17.08 Mpa respectively corresponding to a young modulus and flexural modulus of 21.08 MPa and 232.22 MPa for the 8% and 4% wt. NaOH concentration respectively. Results obtained in the research showed that NaOH treatment with the 8% NaOH concentration improved the mechanical properties of the LC fibre reinforced composites when compared with other NaOH treatment concentration values.

Keywords: Flexural strength, LC fibres, LC/rLDPE composite, Tensile strength.

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193 Analyzing the Impact of Spatio-Temporal Climate Variations on the Rice Crop Calendar in Pakistan

Authors: Muhammad Imran, Iqra Basit, Mobushir Riaz Khan, Sajid Rasheed Ahmad

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The present study investigates the space-time impact of climate change on the rice crop calendar in tropical Gujranwala, Pakistan. The climate change impact was quantified through the climatic variables, whereas the existing calendar of the rice crop was compared with the phonological stages of the crop, depicted through the time series of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) derived from Landsat data for the decade 2005-2015. Local maxima were applied on the time series of NDVI to compute the rice phonological stages. Panel models with fixed and cross-section fixed effects were used to establish the relation between the climatic parameters and the time-series of NDVI across villages and across rice growing periods. Results show that the climatic parameters have significant impact on the rice crop calendar. Moreover, the fixed effect model is a significant improvement over cross-sectional fixed effect models (R-squared equal to 0.673 vs. 0.0338). We conclude that high inter-annual variability of climatic variables cause high variability of NDVI, and thus, a shift in the rice crop calendar. Moreover, inter-annual (temporal) variability of the rice crop calendar is high compared to the inter-village (spatial) variability. We suggest the local rice farmers to adapt this change in the rice crop calendar.

Keywords: Landsat NDVI, panel models, temperature, rainfall.

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192 Development of High Strength Self Curing Concrete Using Super Absorbing Polymer

Authors: K. Bala Subramanian, A. Siva, S. Swaminathan, Arul. M. G. Ajin

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Concrete is an essential building material which is widely used in construction industry all over the world due to its compressible strength. Curing of concrete plays a vital role in durability and other performance necessities. Improper curing can affect the concrete performance and durability easily. When areas like scarcity of water, structures is not accessible by humans external curing cannot be performed, so we opt for internal curing. Internal curing (or) self curing plays a major role in developing the concrete pore structure and microstructure. The concept of internal curing is to enhance the hydration process to maintain the temperature uniformly. The evaporation of water in the concrete is reduced by self curing agent (Super Absorbing Polymer – SAP) there by increasing the water retention capacity of the concrete. The research work was carried out to reduce water, which is prime material used for concrete in the construction industry. Concrete curing plays a major role in developing hydration process. Concept of self curing will reduce the evaporation of water from concrete. Self curing will increase water retention capacity as compared to the conventional concrete. Proper self curing (or) internal curing increases the strength, durability and performance of concrete. Super absorbing Polymer (SAP) used as internal curing agent. In this study 0.2% to 0.4% of SAP was varied in different grade of high strength concrete. In the experiment replacement of cement by silica fumes with 5%, 10% and 15% are studied. It is found that replacement of silica fumes by 10 % gives more strength and durability when compared to others.

Keywords: Compressive Strength, High strength Concrete Rapid chloride permeability, Super Absorbing Polymer.

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191 Current Drainage Attack Correction via Adjusting the Attacking Saw Function Asymmetry

Authors: Yuri Boiko, Iluju Kiringa, Tet Yeap

Abstract:

Current drainage attack suggested previously is further studied in regular settings of closed-loop controlled Brushless DC (BLDC) motor with Kalman filter in the feedback loop. Modeling and simulation experiments are conducted in a MATLAB environment, implementing the closed-loop control model of BLDC motor operation in position sensorless mode under Kalman filter drive. The current increase in the motor windings is caused by the controller (p-controller in our case) affected by false data injection of substitution of the angular velocity estimates with distorted values. Operation of multiplication to distortion coefficient, values of which are taken from the distortion function synchronized in its periodicity with the rotor’s position change. A saw function with a triangular tooth shape is studied herewith for the purpose of carrying out the bias injection with current drainage consequences. The specific focus here is on how the asymmetry of the tooth in the saw function affects the flow of current drainage. The purpose is two-fold: (i) to produce and collect the signature of an asymmetric saw in the attack for further pattern recognition process, and (ii) to determine conditions of improving stealthiness of such attack via regulating asymmetry in saw function used. It is found that modification of the symmetry in the saw tooth affects the periodicity of current drainage modulation. Specifically, the modulation frequency of the drained current for a fully asymmetric tooth shape coincides with the saw function modulation frequency itself. Increasing the symmetry parameter for the triangle tooth shape leads to an increase in the modulation frequency for the drained current. Moreover, such frequency reaches the switching frequency of the motor windings for fully symmetric triangular shapes, thus becoming undetectable and improving the stealthiness of the attack. Therefore, the collected signatures of the attack can serve for attack parameter identification via the pattern recognition route.

Keywords: Bias injection attack, Kalman filter, BLDC motor, control system, closed loop, P-controller, PID-controller, current drainage, saw-function, asymmetry.

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190 Evaluation of Chiller Power Consumption Using Grey Prediction

Authors: Tien-Shun Chan, Yung-Chung Chang, Cheng-Yu Chu, Wen-Hui Chen, Yuan-Lin Chen, Shun-Chong Wang, Chang-Chun Wang

Abstract:

98% of the energy needed in Taiwan has been imported. The prices of petroleum and electricity have been increasing. In addition, facility capacity, amount of electricity generation, amount of electricity consumption and number of Taiwan Power Company customers have continued to increase. For these reasons energy conservation has become an important topic. In the past linear regression was used to establish the power consumption models for chillers. In this study, grey prediction is used to evaluate the power consumption of a chiller so as to lower the total power consumption at peak-load (so that the relevant power providers do not need to keep on increasing their power generation capacity and facility capacity). In grey prediction, only several numerical values (at least four numerical values) are needed to establish the power consumption models for chillers. If PLR, the temperatures of supply chilled-water and return chilled-water, and the temperatures of supply cooling-water and return cooling-water are taken into consideration, quite accurate results (with the accuracy close to 99% for short-term predictions) may be obtained. Through such methods, we can predict whether the power consumption at peak-load will exceed the contract power capacity signed by the corresponding entity and Taiwan Power Company. If the power consumption at peak-load exceeds the power demand, the temperature of the supply chilled-water may be adjusted so as to reduce the PLR and hence lower the power consumption.

Keywords: Gery system theory, grey prediction, chller.

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189 Application of Gamma Frailty Model in Survival of Liver Cirrhosis Patients

Authors: Elnaz Saeedi, Jamileh Abolaghasemi, Mohsen Nasiri Tousi, Saeedeh Khosravi

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Goals and Objectives: A typical analysis of survival data involves the modeling of time-to-event data, such as the time till death. A frailty model is a random effect model for time-to-event data, where the random effect has a multiplicative influence on the baseline hazard function. This article aims to investigate the use of gamma frailty model with concomitant variable in order to individualize the prognostic factors that influence the liver cirrhosis patients’ survival times. Methods: During the one-year study period (May 2008-May 2009), data have been used from the recorded information of patients with liver cirrhosis who were scheduled for liver transplantation and were followed up for at least seven years in Imam Khomeini Hospital in Iran. In order to determine the effective factors for cirrhotic patients’ survival in the presence of latent variables, the gamma frailty distribution has been applied. In this article, it was considering the parametric model, such as Exponential and Weibull distributions for survival time. Data analysis is performed using R software, and the error level of 0.05 was considered for all tests. Results: 305 patients with liver cirrhosis including 180 (59%) men and 125 (41%) women were studied. The age average of patients was 39.8 years. At the end of the study, 82 (26%) patients died, among them 48 (58%) were men and 34 (42%) women. The main cause of liver cirrhosis was found hepatitis 'B' with 23%, followed by cryptogenic with 22.6% were identified as the second factor. Generally, 7-year’s survival was 28.44 months, for dead patients and for censoring was 19.33 and 31.79 months, respectively. Using multi-parametric survival models of progressive and regressive, Exponential and Weibull models with regard to the gamma frailty distribution were fitted to the cirrhosis data. In both models, factors including, age, bilirubin serum, albumin serum, and encephalopathy had a significant effect on survival time of cirrhotic patients. Conclusion: To investigate the effective factors for the time of patients’ death with liver cirrhosis in the presence of latent variables, gamma frailty model with parametric distributions seems desirable.

Keywords: Frailty model, latent variables, liver cirrhosis, parametric distribution.

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