Search results for: Fuzzy forecasting
710 Formulation, Analysis and Validation of Takagi-Sugeno Fuzzy Modeling For Robotic Monipulators
Authors: Rafael Jorge Menezes Santos, Ginalber Luiz de Oliveira Serra, Carlos César Teixeira Ferreira
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This paper proposes a methodology for analysis of the dynamic behavior of a robotic manipulator in continuous time. Initially this system (nonlinear system) will be decomposed into linear submodels and analyzed in the context of the Linear and Parameter Varying (LPV) Systems. The obtained linear submodels, which represent the local dynamic behavior of the robotic manipulator in some operating points were grouped in a Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy structure. The obtained fuzzy model was analyzed and validated through analog simulation, as universal approximator of the robotic manipulator.Keywords: modeling of nonlinear dynamic systems, Takagi- Sugeno fuzzy model, Linear and Parameter Varying (LPV) System.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2609709 Optimization of Fuzzy Cluster Nodes in Cellular Multimedia Networks
Authors: J. D. Mallapur, Supriya H., Santosh B. K., Tej H.
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The cellular network is one of the emerging areas of communication, in which the mobile nodes act as member for one base station. The cluster based communication is now an emerging area of wireless cellular multimedia networks. The cluster renders fast communication and also a convenient way to work with connectivity. In our scheme we have proposed an optimization technique for the fuzzy cluster nodes, by categorizing the group members into three categories like long refreshable member, medium refreshable member and short refreshable member. By considering long refreshable nodes as static nodes, we compute the new membership values for the other nodes in the cluster. We compare their previous and present membership value with the threshold value to categorize them into three different members. By which, we optimize the nodes in the fuzzy clusters. The simulation results show that there is reduction in the cluster computational time and iterational time after optimization.Keywords: Clusters, fuzzy and optimization.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1570708 An LMI Approach of Robust H∞ Fuzzy State-Feedback Controller Design for HIV/AIDS Infection System with Dual Drug Dosages
Authors: Wudhichai Assawinchaichote
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This paper examines the problem of designing robust H controllers for for HIV/AIDS infection system with dual drug dosages described by a Takagi-Sugeno (S) fuzzy model. Based on a linear matrix inequality (LMI) approach, we develop an H controller which guarantees the L2-gain of the mapping from the exogenous input noise to the regulated output to be less than some prescribed value for the system. A sufficient condition of the controller for this system is given in term of Linear Matrix Inequalities (LMIs). The effectiveness of the proposed controller design methodology is finally demonstrated through simulation results. It has been shown that the anti-HIV vaccines are critically important in reducing the infected cells.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1810707 Fuzzy Logic and Control Strategies on a Sump
Authors: Nasser Mohamed Ramli, Nurul Izzati Zulkifli
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Sump can be defined as a reservoir which contains slurry; a mixture of solid and liquid or water, in it. Sump system is an unsteady process owing to the level response. Sump level shall be monitored carefully by using a good controller to avoid overflow. The current conventional controllers would not be able to solve problems with large time delay and nonlinearities, Fuzzy Logic controller is tested to prove its ability in solving the listed problems of slurry sump. Therefore, in order to justify the effectiveness and reliability of these controllers, simulation of the sump system was created by using MATLAB and the results were compared. According to the result obtained, instead of Proportional-Integral (PI) and Proportional-Integral and Derivative (PID), Fuzzy Logic controller showed the best result by offering quick response of 0.32 s for step input and 5 s for pulse generator, by producing small Integral Absolute Error (IAE) values that are 0.66 and 0.36 respectively.
Keywords: Fuzzy, sump, level, controller.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 782706 Reliability Factors Based Fuzzy Logic Scheme for Spectrum Sensing
Authors: Tallataf Rasheed, Adnan Rashdi, Ahmad Naeem Akhtar
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The accurate spectrum sensing is a fundamental requirement of dynamic spectrum access for deployment of Cognitive Radio Network (CRN). To acheive this requirement a Reliability factors based Fuzzy Logic (RFL) Scheme for Spectrum Sensing has been proposed in this paper. Cognitive Radio User (CRU) predicts the presence or absence of Primary User (PU) using energy detector and calculates the Reliability factors which are SNR of sensing node, threshold of energy detector and decision difference of each node with other nodes in a cooperative spectrum sensing environment. Then the decision of energy detector is combined with Reliability factors of sensing node using Fuzzy Logic. These Reliability Factors used in RFL Scheme describes the reliability of decision made by a CRU to improve the local spectrum sensing. This Fuzzy combining scheme provides the accuracy of decision made by sensornode. The simulation results have shown that the proposed technique provide better PU detection probability than existing Spectrum Sensing Techniques.Keywords: Cognitive radio, spectrum sensing, energy detector, reliability factors, fuzzy logic.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1065705 The Application of Hybrid Orthonomal Bernstein and Block-Pulse Functions in Finding Numerical Solution of Fredholm Fuzzy Integral Equations
Authors: Mahmoud Zarrini, Sanaz Torkaman
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In this paper, we have proposed a numerical method for solving fuzzy Fredholm integral equation of the second kind. In this method a combination of orthonormal Bernstein and Block-Pulse functions are used. In most cases, the proposed method leads to the exact solution. The advantages of this method are shown by an example and calculate the error analysis.
Keywords: Fuzzy Fredholm Integral Equation, Bernstein, Block-Pulse, Orthonormal.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2029704 The Reliability of Management Earnings Forecasts in IPO Prospectuses: A Study of Managers’ Forecasting Preferences
Authors: Maha Hammami, Olfa Benouda Sioud
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This study investigates the reliability of management earnings forecasts with reference to these two ingredients: verifiability and neutrality. Specifically, we examine the biasedness (or accuracy) of management earnings forecasts and company specific characteristics that can be associated with accuracy. Based on sample of 102 IPO prospectuses published for admission on NYSE Euronext Paris from 2002 to 2010, we found that these forecasts are on average optimistic and two of the five test variables, earnings variability and financial leverage are significant in explaining ex post bias. Acknowledging the possibility that the bias is the result of the managers’ forecasting behavior, we then examine whether managers decide to under-predict, over-predict or forecast accurately for self-serving purposes. Explicitly, we examine the role of financial distress, operating performance, ownership by insiders and the economy state in influencing managers’ forecasting preferences. We find that managers of distressed firms seem to over-predict future earnings. We also find that when managers are given more stock options, they tend to under-predict future earnings. Finally, we conclude that the management earnings forecasts are affected by an intentional bias due to managers’ forecasting preferences.
Keywords: Intentional bias, Management earnings forecasts, neutrality, verifiability.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2243703 A New Approach for Controlling Overhead Traveling Crane Using Rough Controller
Authors: Mazin Z. Othman
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This paper presents the idea of a rough controller with application to control the overhead traveling crane system. The structure of such a controller is based on a suggested concept of a fuzzy logic controller. A measure of fuzziness in rough sets is introduced. A comparison between fuzzy logic controller and rough controller has been demonstrated. The results of a simulation comparing the performance of both controllers are shown. From these results we infer that the performance of the proposed rough controller is satisfactory.
Keywords: Accuracy measure, Fuzzy Logic Controller (FLC), Overhead Traveling Crane (OTC), Rough Set Theory (RST), Roughness measure
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1703702 Forecasting Issues in Energy Markets within a Reg-ARIMA Framework
Authors: Ilaria Lucrezia Amerise
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Electricity markets throughout the world have undergone substantial changes. Accurate, reliable, clear and comprehensible modeling and forecasting of different variables (loads and prices in the first instance) have achieved increasing importance. In this paper, we describe the actual state of the art focusing on reg-SARMA methods, which have proven to be flexible enough to accommodate the electricity price/load behavior satisfactory. More specifically, we will discuss: 1) The dichotomy between point and interval forecasts; 2) The difficult choice between stochastic (e.g. climatic variation) and non-deterministic predictors (e.g. calendar variables); 3) The confrontation between modelling a single aggregate time series or creating separated and potentially different models of sub-series. The noteworthy point that we would like to make it emerge is that prices and loads require different approaches that appear irreconcilable even though must be made reconcilable for the interests and activities of energy companies.Keywords: Forecasting problem, interval forecasts, time series, electricity prices, reg-plus-SARMA methods.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 812701 Persian Printed Numeral Characters Recognition Using Geometrical Central Moments and Fuzzy Min-Max Neural Network
Authors: Hamid Reza Boveiri
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In this paper, a new proposed system for Persian printed numeral characters recognition with emphasis on representation and recognition stages is introduced. For the first time, in Persian optical character recognition, geometrical central moments as character image descriptor and fuzzy min-max neural network for Persian numeral character recognition has been used. Set of different experiments on binary images of regular, translated, rotated and scaled Persian numeral characters has been done and variety of results has been presented. The best result was 99.16% correct recognition demonstrating geometrical central moments and fuzzy min-max neural network are adequate for Persian printed numeral character recognition.Keywords: Fuzzy min-max neural network, geometrical centralmoments, optical character recognition, Persian digits recognition, Persian printed numeral characters recognition.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1725700 Optimal Performance of Plastic Extrusion Process Using Fuzzy Goal Programming
Authors: Abbas Al-Refaie
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This study optimized the performance of plastic extrusion process of drip irrigation pipes using fuzzy goal programming. Two main responses were of main interest; roll thickness and hardness. Four main process factors were studied. The L18 array was then used for experimental design. The individual-moving range control charts were used to assess the stability of the process, while the process capability index was used to assess process performance. Confirmation experiments were conducted at the obtained combination of optimal factor setting by fuzzy goal programming. The results revealed that process capability was improved significantly from -1.129 to 0.8148 for roll thickness and from 0.0965 to 0.714 and hardness. Such improvement results in considerable savings in production and quality costs.
Keywords: Fuzzy goal programming, extrusion process, process capability, irrigation plastic pipes.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 901699 Multilevel Fuzzy Decision Support Model for China-s Urban Rail Transit Planning Schemes
Authors: Jin-Bao Zhao, Wei Deng
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This paper aims at developing a multilevel fuzzy decision support model for urban rail transit planning schemes in China under the background that China is presently experiencing an unprecedented construction of urban rail transit. In this study, an appropriate model using multilevel fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is developed. In the decision process, the followings are considered as the influential objectives: traveler attraction, environment protection, project feasibility and operation. In addition, consistent matrix analysis method is used to determine the weights between objectives and the weights between the objectives- sub-indictors, which reduces the work caused by repeated establishment of the decision matrix on the basis of ensuring the consistency of decision matrix. The application results show that multilevel fuzzy decision model can perfectly deal with the multivariable and multilevel decision process, which is particularly useful in the resolution of multilevel decision-making problem of urban rail transit planning schemes.Keywords: Urban rail transit, planning schemes, multilevel fuzzy decision support model, consistent matrix analysis
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1319698 Modelling for Temperature Non-Isothermal Continuous Stirred Tank Reactor Using Fuzzy Logic
Authors: Nasser Mohamed Ramli, Mohamad Syafiq Mohamad
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Many types of controllers were applied on the continuous stirred tank reactor (CSTR) unit to control the temperature. In this research paper, Proportional-Integral-Derivative (PID) controller are compared with Fuzzy Logic controller for temperature control of CSTR. The control system for temperature non-isothermal of a CSTR will produce a stable response curve to its set point temperature. A mathematical model of a CSTR using the most general operating condition was developed through a set of differential equations into S-function using MATLAB. The reactor model and S-function are developed using m.file. After developing the S-function of CSTR model, User-Defined functions are used to link to SIMULINK file. Results that are obtained from simulation and temperature control were better when using Fuzzy logic control compared to PID control.
Keywords: CSTR, temperature, PID, fuzzy logic.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2484697 Pattern Recognition of Partial Discharge by Using Simplified Fuzzy ARTMAP
Authors: S. Boonpoke, B. Marungsri
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This paper presents the effectiveness of artificial intelligent technique to apply for pattern recognition and classification of Partial Discharge (PD). Characteristics of PD signal for pattern recognition and classification are computed from the relation of the voltage phase angle, the discharge magnitude and the repeated existing of partial discharges by using statistical and fractal methods. The simplified fuzzy ARTMAP (SFAM) is used for pattern recognition and classification as artificial intelligent technique. PDs quantities, 13 parameters from statistical method and fractal method results, are inputted to Simplified Fuzzy ARTMAP to train system for pattern recognition and classification. The results confirm the effectiveness of purpose technique.Keywords: Partial discharges, PD Pattern recognition, PDClassification, Artificial intelligent, Simplified Fuzzy ARTMAP
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3084696 The Pixel Value Data Approach for Rainfall Forecasting Based on GOES-9 Satellite Image Sequence Analysis
Authors: C. Yaiprasert, K. Jaroensutasinee, M. Jaroensutasinee
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To develop a process of extracting pixel values over the using of satellite remote sensing image data in Thailand. It is a very important and effective method of forecasting rainfall. This paper presents an approach for forecasting a possible rainfall area based on pixel values from remote sensing satellite images. First, a method uses an automatic extraction process of the pixel value data from the satellite image sequence. Then, a data process is designed to enable the inference of correlations between pixel value and possible rainfall occurrences. The result, when we have a high averaged pixel value of daily water vapor data, we will also have a high amount of daily rainfall. This suggests that the amount of averaged pixel values can be used as an indicator of raining events. There are some positive associations between pixel values of daily water vapor images and the amount of daily rainfall at each rain-gauge station throughout Thailand. The proposed approach was proven to be a helpful manual for rainfall forecasting from meteorologists by which using automated analyzing and interpreting process of meteorological remote sensing data.
Keywords: Pixel values, satellite image, water vapor, rainfall, image processing.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1862695 Identification of a PWA Model of a Batch Reactor for Model Predictive Control
Authors: Gorazd Karer, Igor Skrjanc, Borut Zupancic
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The complex hybrid and nonlinear nature of many processes that are met in practice causes problems with both structure modelling and parameter identification; therefore, obtaining a model that is suitable for MPC is often a difficult task. The basic idea of this paper is to present an identification method for a piecewise affine (PWA) model based on a fuzzy clustering algorithm. First we introduce the PWA model. Next, we tackle the identification method. We treat the fuzzy clustering algorithm, deal with the projections of the fuzzy clusters into the input space of the PWA model and explain the estimation of the parameters of the PWA model by means of a modified least-squares method. Furthermore, we verify the usability of the proposed identification approach on a hybrid nonlinear batch reactor example. The result suggest that the batch reactor can be efficiently identified and thus formulated as a PWA model, which can eventually be used for model predictive control purposes.
Keywords: Batch reactor, fuzzy clustering, hybrid systems, identification, nonlinear systems, PWA systems.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2195694 Automatic Reusability Appraisal of Software Components using Neuro-fuzzy Approach
Authors: Parvinder S. Sandhu, Hardeep Singh
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Automatic reusability appraisal could be helpful in evaluating the quality of developed or developing reusable software components and in identification of reusable components from existing legacy systems; that can save cost of developing the software from scratch. But the issue of how to identify reusable components from existing systems has remained relatively unexplored. In this paper, we have mentioned two-tier approach by studying the structural attributes as well as usability or relevancy of the component to a particular domain. Latent semantic analysis is used for the feature vector representation of various software domains. It exploits the fact that FeatureVector codes can be seen as documents containing terms -the idenifiers present in the components- and so text modeling methods that capture co-occurrence information in low-dimensional spaces can be used. Further, we devised Neuro- Fuzzy hybrid Inference System, which takes structural metric values as input and calculates the reusability of the software component. Decision tree algorithm is used to decide initial set of fuzzy rules for the Neuro-fuzzy system. The results obtained are convincing enough to propose the system for economical identification and retrieval of reusable software components.Keywords: Clustering, ID3, LSA, Neuro-fuzzy System, SVD
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1662693 Seismic Response Reduction of Structures using Smart Base Isolation System
Authors: H.S. Kim
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In this study, control performance of a smart base isolation system consisting of a friction pendulum system (FPS) and a magnetorheological (MR) damper has been investigated. A fuzzy logic controller (FLC) is used to modulate the MR damper so as to minimize structural acceleration while maintaining acceptable base displacement levels. To this end, a multi-objective optimization scheme is used to optimize parameters of membership functions and find appropriate fuzzy rules. To demonstrate effectiveness of the proposed multi-objective genetic algorithm for FLC, a numerical study of a smart base isolation system is conducted using several historical earthquakes. It is shown that the proposed method can find optimal fuzzy rules and that the optimized FLC outperforms not only a passive control strategy but also a human-designed FLC and a conventional semi-active control algorithm.Keywords: Fuzzy logic controller, genetic algorithm, MR damper, smart base isolation system
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2200692 Decentralized Handoff for Microcellular Mobile Communication System using Fuzzy Logic
Authors: G. M. Mir, N. A. Shah, Moinuddin
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Efficient handoff algorithms are a cost-effective way of enhancing the capacity and QoS of cellular system. The higher value of hysteresis effectively prevents unnecessary handoffs but causes undesired cell dragging. This undesired cell dragging causes interference or could lead to dropped calls in microcellular environment. The problems are further exacerbated by the corner effect phenomenon which causes the signal level to drop by 20-30 dB in 10-20 meters. Thus, in order to maintain reliable communication in a microcellular system new and better handoff algorithms must be developed. A fuzzy based handoff algorithm is proposed in this paper as a solution to this problem. Handoff on the basis of ratio of slopes of normal signal loss to the actual signal loss is presented. The fuzzy based solution is supported by comparing its results with the results obtained in analytical solution.Keywords: Slope ratio, handoff, corner effect, fuzzy logic.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1514691 Optimal Aggregate Production Planning with Fuzzy Data
Authors: Wen-Lung Huang, Shih-Pin Chen
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This paper investigates the optimization problem of multi-product aggregate production planning (APP) with fuzzy data. From a comprehensive viewpoint of conserving the fuzziness of input information, this paper proposes a method that can completely describe the membership function of the performance measure. The idea is based on the well-known Zadeh-s extension principle which plays an important role in fuzzy theory. In the proposed solution procedure, a pair of mathematical programs parameterized by possibility level a is formulated to calculate the bounds of the optimal performance measure at a . Then the membership function of the optimal performance measure is constructed by enumerating different values of a . Solutions obtained from the proposed method contain more information, and can offer more chance to achieve the feasible disaggregate plan. This is helpful to the decision-maker in practical applications.Keywords: fuzzy data, aggregate production planning, membership function, parametric programming
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1743690 Inverse Dynamic Active Ground Motion Acceleration Inputs Estimation of the Retaining Structure
Authors: Ming-Hui Lee, Iau-Teh Wang
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The innovative fuzzy estimator is used to estimate the ground motion acceleration of the retaining structure in this study. The Kalman filter without the input term and the fuzzy weighting recursive least square estimator are two main portions of this method. The innovation vector can be produced by the Kalman filter, and be applied to the fuzzy weighting recursive least square estimator to estimate the acceleration input over time. The excellent performance of this estimator is demonstrated by comparing it with the use of difference weighting function, the distinct levels of the measurement noise covariance and the initial process noise covariance. The availability and the precision of the proposed method proposed in this study can be verified by comparing the actual value and the one obtained by numerical simulation.Keywords: Earthquake, Fuzzy Estimator, Kalman Filter, Recursive Least Square Estimator.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1547689 Fuzzy Controlled Hydraulic Excavator with Model Parameter Uncertainty
Authors: Ganesh Kothapalli, Mohammed Y. Hassan
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The hydraulic actuated excavator, being a non-linear mobile machine, encounters many uncertainties. There are uncertainties in the hydraulic system in addition to the uncertain nature of the load. The simulation results obtained in this study show that there is a need for intelligent control of such machines and in particular interval type-2 fuzzy controller is most suitable for minimizing the position error of a typical excavator-s bucket under load variations. We consider the model parameter uncertainties such as hydraulic fluid leakage and friction. These are uncertainties which also depend up on the temperature and alter bulk modulus and viscosity of the hydraulic fluid. Such uncertainties together with the load variations cause chattering of the bucket position. The interval type-2 fuzzy controller effectively eliminates the chattering and manages to control the end-effecter (bucket) position with positional error in the order of few millimeters.Keywords: excavator, fuzzy control, hydraulics, mining, type-2
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1643688 MPPT Operation for PV Grid-connected System using RBFNN and Fuzzy Classification
Authors: A. Chaouachi, R. M. Kamel, K. Nagasaka
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This paper presents a novel methodology for Maximum Power Point Tracking (MPPT) of a grid-connected 20 kW Photovoltaic (PV) system using neuro-fuzzy network. The proposed method predicts the reference PV voltage guarantying optimal power transfer between the PV generator and the main utility grid. The neuro-fuzzy network is composed of a fuzzy rule-based classifier and three Radial Basis Function Neural Networks (RBFNN). Inputs of the network (irradiance and temperature) are classified before they are fed into the appropriated RBFNN for either training or estimation process while the output is the reference voltage. The main advantage of the proposed methodology, comparing to a conventional single neural network-based approach, is the distinct generalization ability regarding to the nonlinear and dynamic behavior of a PV generator. In fact, the neuro-fuzzy network is a neural network based multi-model machine learning that defines a set of local models emulating the complex and non-linear behavior of a PV generator under a wide range of operating conditions. Simulation results under several rapid irradiance variations proved that the proposed MPPT method fulfilled the highest efficiency comparing to a conventional single neural network.
Keywords: MPPT, neuro-fuzzy, RBFN, grid-connected, photovoltaic.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3182687 Validation and Selection between Machine Learning Technique and Traditional Methods to Reduce Bullwhip Effects: a Data Mining Approach
Authors: Hamid R. S. Mojaveri, Seyed S. Mousavi, Mojtaba Heydar, Ahmad Aminian
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The aim of this paper is to present a methodology in three steps to forecast supply chain demand. In first step, various data mining techniques are applied in order to prepare data for entering into forecasting models. In second step, the modeling step, an artificial neural network and support vector machine is presented after defining Mean Absolute Percentage Error index for measuring error. The structure of artificial neural network is selected based on previous researchers' results and in this article the accuracy of network is increased by using sensitivity analysis. The best forecast for classical forecasting methods (Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing, and Exponential Smoothing with Trend) is resulted based on prepared data and this forecast is compared with result of support vector machine and proposed artificial neural network. The results show that artificial neural network can forecast more precisely in comparison with other methods. Finally, forecasting methods' stability is analyzed by using raw data and even the effectiveness of clustering analysis is measured.Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), bullwhip effect, demand forecasting, Support Vector Machine (SVM).
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2010686 Forecasting 24-Hour Ahead Electricity Load Using Time Series Models
Authors: Ramin Vafadary, Maryam Khanbaghi
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Forecasting electricity load is important for various purposes like planning, operation and control. Forecasts can save operating and maintenance costs, increase the reliability of power supply and delivery systems, and correct decisions for future development. This paper compares various time series methods to forecast 24 hours ahead of electricity load. The methods considered are the Holt-Winters smoothing, SARIMA Modeling, LSTM Network, Fbprophet and Tensorflow probability. The performance of each method is evaluated by using the forecasting accuracy criteria namely, the Mean Absolute Error and Root Mean Square Error. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) residential energy consumption data are used to train the models. The results of this study show that SARIMA model is superior to the others for 24 hours ahead forecasts. Furthermore, a Bagging technique is used to make the predictions more robust. The obtained results show that by Bagging multiple time-series forecasts we can improve the robustness of the models for 24 hour ahead electricity load forecasting.
Keywords: Bagging, Fbprophet, Holt-Winters, LSTM, Load Forecast, SARIMA, tensorflow probability, time series.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 483685 An Improved Performance of the SRM Drives Using Z-Source Inverter with the Simplified Fuzzy Logic Rule Base
Authors: M. Hari Prabhu
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This paper is based on the performance of the Switched Reluctance Motor (SRM) drives using Z-Source Inverter with the simplified rule base of Fuzzy Logic Controller (FLC) with the output scaling factor (SF) self-tuning mechanism are proposed. The aim of this paper is to simplify the program complexity of the controller by reducing the number of fuzzy sets of the membership functions (MFs) without losing the system performance and stability via the adjustable controller gain. ZSI exhibits both voltage-buck and voltage-boost capability. It reduces line harmonics, improves reliability, and extends output voltage range. The output SF of the controller can be tuned continuously by a gain updating factor, whose value is derived from fuzzy logic, with the plant error and error change ratio as input variables. Then the results, carried out on a four-phase 6/8 pole SRM based on the dSPACEDS1104 platform, to show the feasibility and effectiveness of the devised methods and also performance of the proposed controllers will be compared with conventional counterpart.
Keywords: Fuzzy logic controller, scaling factor (SF), switched reluctance motor (SRM), variable-speed drives.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2428684 Fuzzy Logic Controlled Shunt Active Power Filter for Three-phase Four-wire Systems with Balanced and Unbalanced Loads
Authors: Ahmed A. Helal, Nahla E. Zakzouk, Yasser G. Desouky
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This paper presents a fuzzy logic controlled shunt active power filter used to compensate for harmonic distortion in three-phase four-wire systems. The shunt active filter employs a simple method for the calculation of the reference compensation current based of Fast Fourier Transform. This presented filter is able to operate in both balanced and unbalanced load conditions. A fuzzy logic based current controller strategy is used to regulate the filter current and hence ensure harmonic free supply current. The validity of the presented approach in harmonic mitigation is verified via simulation results of the proposed test system under different loading conditions.Keywords: Active power filters, Fuzzy logic controller, Power quality
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1992683 Nonlinear Optimal Line-Of-Sight Stabilization with Fuzzy Gain-Scheduling
Authors: A. Puras Trueba, J. R. Llata García
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A nonlinear optimal controller with a fuzzy gain scheduler has been designed and applied to a Line-Of-Sight (LOS) stabilization system. Use of Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR) theory is an optimal and simple manner of solving many control engineering problems. However, this method cannot be utilized directly for multigimbal LOS systems since they are nonlinear in nature. To adapt LQ controllers to nonlinear systems at least a linearization of the model plant is required. When the linearized model is only valid within the vicinity of an operating point a gain scheduler is required. Therefore, a Takagi-Sugeno Fuzzy Inference System gain scheduler has been implemented, which keeps the asymptotic stability performance provided by the optimal feedback gain approach. The simulation results illustrate that the proposed controller is capable of overcoming disturbances and maintaining a satisfactory tracking performance.Keywords: Fuzzy Gain-Scheduling, Gimbal, Line-Of-SightStabilization, LQR, Optimal Control
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2328682 A Fuzzy Implementation for Optimization of Storage Locations in an Industrial AS/RS
Authors: C. Senanayake, S. Veera Ragavan
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Warehousing is commonly used in factories for the storage of products until delivery of orders. As the amount of products stored increases it becomes tedious to be carried out manually. In recent years, the manual storing has converted into fully or partially computer controlled systems, also known as Automated Storage and Retrieval Systems (AS/RS). This paper discusses an ASRS system, which was designed such that the best storage location for the products is determined by utilizing a fuzzy control system. The design maintains the records of the products to be/already in store and the storage/retrieval times along with the availability status of the storage locations. This paper discusses on the maintenance of the above mentioned records and the utilization of the concept of fuzzy logic in order to determine the optimum storage location for the products. The paper will further discuss on the dynamic splitting and merging of the storage locations depending on the product sizes.Keywords: ASRS, fuzzy control systems, MySQL database, dynamic splitting and merging.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2142681 Software Effort Estimation Using Soft Computing Techniques
Authors: Parvinder S. Sandhu, Porush Bassi, Amanpreet Singh Brar
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Various models have been derived by studying large number of completed software projects from various organizations and applications to explore how project sizes mapped into project effort. But, still there is a need to prediction accuracy of the models. As Neuro-fuzzy based system is able to approximate the non-linear function with more precision. So, Neuro-Fuzzy system is used as a soft computing approach to generate model by formulating the relationship based on its training. In this paper, Neuro-Fuzzy technique is used for software estimation modeling of on NASA software project data and performance of the developed models are compared with the Halstead, Walston-Felix, Bailey-Basili and Doty Models mentioned in the literature.
Keywords: Effort Estimation, Neural-Fuzzy Model, Halstead Model, Walston-Felix Model, Bailey-Basili Model, Doty Model.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2075