Search results for: Lower body positive pressure supported treadmill
Commenced in January 2007
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Edition: International
Paper Count: 4947

Search results for: Lower body positive pressure supported treadmill

327 Effect of Two Different Biochars on Germination and Seedlings Growth of Salad, Cress and Barley

Authors: L. Bouqbis, H.W. Koyro, M. C. Harrouni, S. Daoud, L. F. Z. Ainlhout, C. I. Kammann

Abstract:

The application of biochar to soils is becoming more and more common. Its application which is generally reported to improve the physical, chemical, and biological properties of soils, has an indirect effect on soil health and increased crop yields. However, many of the previous results are highly variable and dependent mainly on the initial soil properties, biochar characteristics, and production conditions. In this study, two biochars which are biochar II (BC II) derived from a blend of paper sludge and wheat husks and biochar 005 (BC 005) derived from sewage sludge with a KCl additive, are used, and the physical and chemical properties of BC II are characterized. To determine the potential impact of salt stress and toxic and volatile substances, the second part of this study focused on the effect biochars have on germination of salad (Lactuca sativa L.), barley (Hordeum vulgare), and cress (Lepidium sativum) respectively. Our results indicate that Biochar II showed some unique properties compared to the soil, such as high EC, high content of K, Na, Mg, and low content of heavy metals. Concerning salad and barley germination test, no negative effect of BC II and BC 005 was observed. However, a negative effect of BC 005 at 8% level was revealed. The test of the effect of volatile substances on germination of cress revealed a positive effect of BC II, while a negative effect was observed for BC 005. Moreover, the water holding capacities of biochar-sand mixtures increased with increasing biochar application. Collectively, BC II could be safely used for agriculture and could provide the potential for a better plant growth.

Keywords: Biochar, phytotoxic tests, seedlings growth, water holding capacity.

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326 Effects of Irrigation Scheduling and Soil Management on Maize (Zea mays L.) Yield in Guinea Savannah Zone of Nigeria

Authors: I. Alhassan, A. M. Saddiq, A. G. Gashua, K. K. Gwio-Kura

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The main objective of any irrigation program is the development of an efficient water management system to sustain crop growth and development and avoid physiological water stress in the growing plants. Field experiment to evaluate the effects of some soil moisture conservation practices on yield and water use efficiency (WUE) of maize was carried out in three locations (i.e. Mubi and Yola in the northern Guinea Savannah and Ganye in the southern Guinea Savannah of Adamawa State, Nigeria) during the dry seasons of 2013 and 2014. The experiment consisted of three different irrigation levels (7, 10 and 12 day irrigation intervals), two levels of mulch (mulch and un-mulched) and two tillage practices (no tillage and minimum tillage) arranged in a randomized complete block design with split-split plot arrangement and replicated three times. The Blaney-Criddle method was used for measuring crop evapotranspiration. The results indicated that seven-day irrigation intervals and mulched treatment were found to have significant effect (P>0.05) on grain yield and water use efficiency in all the locations. The main effect of tillage was non-significant (P<0.05) on grain yield and WUE. The interaction effects of irrigation and mulch were significant (P>0.05) on grain yield and WUE at Mubi and Yola. Generally, higher grain yield and WUE were recorded on mulched and seven-day irrigation intervals, whereas lower values were recorded on un-mulched with 12-day irrigation intervals. Tillage exerts little influence on the yield and WUE. Results from Ganye were found to be generally higher than those recorded in Mubi and Yola; it also showed that an irrigation interval of 10 days with mulching could be adopted for the Ganye area, while seven days interval is more appropriate for Mubi and Yola.

Keywords: Irrigation, maize, mulching, tillage, guinea savannah.

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325 Incidence of Fungal Infections and Mycotoxicosis in Pork Meat and Pork By-Products in Egyptian Markets

Authors: Ashraf S. Hakim, Randa M. Alarousy

Abstract:

The consumption of food contaminated with molds (microscopic filamentous fungi) and their toxic metabolites results in the development of food-borne mycotoxicosis. The spores of molds are ubiquitously spread in the environment and can be detected everywhere. Ochratoxin A is a toxic and potentially carcinogenic fungal toxin found in a variety of food commodities. In this study, the mycological quality of various ready-to-eat local and imported pork meat and meat byproducts sold in Egyptian markets were assessed and the presence of various molds was determined in pork used as a raw material, edible organs as liver and kidney as well as in fermented raw meat by-products. The study assessed the mycological quality of pork raw meat and their by-products sold in commercial shops in Cairo, Egypt. Mycological analysis was conducted on (n=110) samples which included pig’s livers and kidneys from Egyptian Bassatin slaughter house; local and imported processed pork meat by-products from Egyptian pork markets. The isolates were identified using traditional mycological and biochemical tests. All kidney and liver samples were positive to molds growth while all byproducts were negative. Ochratoxin A levels were quantitatively analyzed using the high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) and the highest results were present in kidney 7.51 part per billion (ppb) followed by minced meat 6.19 ppb generally the local samples showed higher levels than the imported ones. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first report on mycotoxins detection and quantification from pork by-products in Egypt.

Keywords: Egypt, imported pork by-products, local, mycotoxins.

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324 Developing Well-Being Indicators and Measurement Methods as Illustrated by Projects Aimed at Preventing Obesity in Children

Authors: E. Grochowska-Niedworok, K. Brukało, M. Hadasik, M. Kardas

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Consumption of vegetables by school children and adolescents is essential for their normal growth, development and health, but a significant minority of the world's population consumes the right amount of these products. The aim of the study was to evaluate the preferences and frequency of consumption of vegetables by school children and adolescents. It has been assumed that effectively implemented nutrition education programs should have an impact on increasing the frequency of vegetable consumption among the recipients. The study covered 514 students of five schools in the Opole Voivodeship aged 9 years to 22 years. The research tool was an author's questionnaire, which consisted of closed questions on the frequency of vegetable consumption and the use of 10 ways to treat them. Preferences and frequencies are shown in percentages, while correlations were estimated on the basis of Cramer`s V and gamma coefficients. In each of the examined age groups, the relationship between sex and vegetable consumption (the Cramer`s V coefficient value was 0.06 to 0.38) was determined and the various methods of culinary processing were used (V Craméra was 0.08 to 0.34). For both sexes, the relationship between age and frequency of vegetable consumption was shown (gamma values ranged from ~ 0.00 to 0.39) and different cooking methods (gamma values were 0.01 to 0.22). The most important determinant of nutritional choices is the taste and availability of products. The fact that they have a positive effect on their health is only in third position. As has been shown, obesity prevention programs can not only address nutrition education but also teach about new flavors and increase the availability of healthy foods. In addition, the frequency of vegetable consumption can be a good indicator reflecting the healthy behaviors of children and adolescents.

Keywords: Children and adolescents, frequency, welfare rate, vegetables.

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323 Sustainable Energy Production with Closed-Loop Methods: Evaluating the Influence of Power Plant Age on Production Efficiency and Environmental Impact

Authors: Bujar Ismaili, Bahti Ismajli, Venhar Ismaili, Skender Ramadani

Abstract:

In Kosovo, the problem with the electricity supply is huge and it does not meet the demands of consumers. Older thermal power plants, which are regarded as big environmental polluters, produce most of the energy. Our experiment is based on the production of electricity using the closed method that does not affect environmental pollution by using waste as fuel that is considered to pollute the environment. The experiment was carried out in the village of Godanc, municipality of Shtime, Kosovo. In the experiment, a production line based on the production of electricity and central heating was designed at the same time. The results are the benefits of electricity as well as the release of temperature for heating with minimal expenses and with the release of 0% gases into the atmosphere. During this experiment, coal, plastic, waste from wood processing, and agricultural wastes were used as raw materials. The method utilized in the experiment allows for the release of gas through pipes and filters during the top-to-bottom combustion of the raw material in the boiler, followed by the method of gas filtration from waste wood processing (sawdust). During this process, the final product, gas, is obtained. This gas passes through the carburetor, enabling the combustion process to put the internal combustion machine and the generator into operation and produce electricity that does not release gases into the atmosphere. The results show that the system provides energy stability without environmental pollution from toxic substances and waste, as well as with low production costs. From the final results, it follows that, in the case of using coal fuel, we have benefited from more electricity and higher temperature release, followed by plastic waste, which also gave good results. The results obtained during these experiments prove that the current problems of lack of electricity and heating can be met at a lower cost and have a clean environment and waste management.

Keywords: Energy, heating, atmosphere, waste management, gasification.

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322 Promoting Local Products through One Village One Product and Customer Satisfaction

Authors: Wardoyo, Humairoh

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In global competition nowadays, the world economy heavily depends upon high technology and capital intensive industries that are mainly owned by well-established economic and developed countries, such as United States of America, United Kingdom, Japan, and South Korea. Indonesia as a developing country is building its economic activities towards industrial country as well, although a slightly different approach was implemented. For example, similar to the concept of one village one product (OVOP) implemented in Japan, Indonesia also adopted this concept by promoting local traditional products to improve incomes of village people and to enhance local economic activities. Analysis on how OVOP program increase local people’s income and influence customer satisfaction were the objective of this paper. Behavioral intention to purchase and re-purchase, customer satisfaction and promotion are key factors for local products to play significant roles in improving local income and economy of the region. The concepts of OVOP and key factors that influence economic activities of local people and the region will be described and explained in the paper. Results of research, in a case study based on 300 respondents, customers of a local restaurant at Tangerang City, Banten Province of Indonesia, indicated that local product, service quality and behavioral intention individually have significant influence to customer satisfaction; whereas simultaneous tests to the variables indicated positive and significant influence to the behavioral intention through customer satisfaction as the intervening variable.

Keywords: Behavioral intention, customer satisfaction, local products, one village one product.

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321 The Current Practices of Analysis of Reinforced Concrete Panels Subjected to Blast Loading

Authors: Palak J. Shukla, Atul K. Desai, Chentankumar D. Modhera

Abstract:

For any country in the world, it has become a priority to protect the critical infrastructure from looming risks of terrorism. In any infrastructure system, the structural elements like lower floors, exterior columns, walls etc. are key elements which are the most susceptible to damage due to blast load. The present study revisits the state of art review of the design and analysis of reinforced concrete panels subjected to blast loading. Various aspects in association with blast loading on structure, i.e. estimation of blast load, experimental works carried out previously, the numerical simulation tools, various material models, etc. are considered for exploring the current practices adopted worldwide. Discussion on various parametric studies to investigate the effect of reinforcement ratios, thickness of slab, different charge weight and standoff distance is also made. It was observed that for the simulation of blast load, CONWEP blast function or equivalent numerical equations were successfully employed by many researchers. The study of literature indicates that the researches were carried out using experimental works and numerical simulation using well known generalized finite element methods, i.e. LS-DYNA, ABAQUS, AUTODYN. Many researchers recommended to use concrete damage model to represent concrete and plastic kinematic material model to represent steel under action of blast loads for most of the numerical simulations. Most of the studies reveal that the increase reinforcement ratio, thickness of slab, standoff distance was resulted in better blast resistance performance of reinforced concrete panel. The study summarizes the various research results and appends the present state of knowledge for the structures exposed to blast loading.

Keywords: Blast phenomenon, experimental methods, material models, numerical methods.

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320 Mapping of Alteration Zones in Mineral Rich Belt of South-East Rajasthan Using Remote Sensing Techniques

Authors: Mrinmoy Dhara, Vivek K. Sengar, Shovan L. Chattoraj, Soumiya Bhattacharjee

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Remote sensing techniques have emerged as an asset for various geological studies. Satellite images obtained by different sensors contain plenty of information related to the terrain. Digital image processing further helps in customized ways for the prospecting of minerals. In this study, an attempt has been made to map the hydrothermally altered zones using multispectral and hyperspectral datasets of South East Rajasthan. Advanced Space-borne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) and Hyperion (Level1R) dataset have been processed to generate different Band Ratio Composites (BRCs). For this study, ASTER derived BRCs were generated to delineate the alteration zones, gossans, abundant clays and host rocks. ASTER and Hyperion images were further processed to extract mineral end members and classified mineral maps have been produced using Spectral Angle Mapper (SAM) method. Results were validated with the geological map of the area which shows positive agreement with the image processing outputs. Thus, this study concludes that the band ratios and image processing in combination play significant role in demarcation of alteration zones which may provide pathfinders for mineral prospecting studies.

Keywords: Advanced space-borne thermal emission and reflection radiometer, ASTER, Hyperion, Band ratios, Alteration zones, spectral angle mapper.

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319 Reduction of Plants Biodiversity in Hyrcanian Forest by Coal Mining Activities

Authors: Mahsa Tavakoli, Seyed Mohammad Hojjati, Yahya Kooch

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Considering that coal mining is one of the important industrial activities, it may cause damages to environment. According to the author’s best knowledge, the effect of traditional coal mining activities on plant biodiversity has not been investigated in the Hyrcanian forests. Therefore, in this study, the effect of coal mining activities on vegetation and tree diversity was investigated in Hyrcanian forest, North Iran. After filed visiting and determining the mine, 16 plots (20×20 m2) were established by systematic-randomly (60×60 m2) in an area of 4 ha (200×200 m2-mine entrance placed at center). An area adjacent to the mine was not affected by the mining activity, and it is considered as the control area. In each plot, the data about trees such as number and type of species were recorded. The biodiversity of vegetation cover was considered 5 square sub-plots (1 m2) in each plot. PAST software and Ecological Methodology were used to calculate Biodiversity indices. The value of Shannon Wiener and Simpson diversity indices for tree cover in control area (1.04±0.34 and 0.62±0.20) was significantly higher than mining area (0.78±0.27 and 0.45±0.14). The value of evenness indices for tree cover in the mining area was significantly lower than that of the control area. The value of Shannon Wiener and Simpson diversity indices for vegetation cover in the control area (1.37±0.06 and 0.69±0.02) was significantly higher than the mining area (1.02±0.13 and 0.50±0.07). The value of evenness index in the control area was significantly higher than the mining area. Plant communities are a good indicator of the changes in the site. Study about changes in vegetation biodiversity and plant dynamics in the degraded land can provide necessary information for forest management and reforestation of these areas.

Keywords: Vegetation biodiversity, species composition, traditional coal mining, caspian forest.

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318 Influence of Tool Geometry on Surface Roughness and Tool Wear When Turning AISI 304L Using Taguchi Optimisation Methodology

Authors: Salah Gariani, Taher Dao, Ahmed Lajili

Abstract:

This paper presents an experimental optimisation of surface roughness (Ra) and tool wear in the precision turning of AISI 304L alloy using a wiper and conventional cutting tools under wet cutting conditions. The machining trials were conducted based on Taguchi methodology employing an L9 orthogonal array design with four process parameters: feed rate, spindle speed, depth of cut, and cutting tool type. The experimental results were utilised to characterise the main factors affecting Ra and tool wear using the analyses of means (AOM) and variance (ANOVA). The results show that the wiper tools outperformed conventional tools in terms of surface quality and tool wear at optimal cutting conditions. The ANOVA results indicate that the main factors contributing to lower Ra are cutting tool type and feed rate, with percentage contribution ratios (PCRs) of 58.69% and 25.18% respectively. This confirms that tool type is the most significant factor affecting surface quality when turning AISI 304L. Additionally, a substantial reduction in tool wear was observed when a wiper insert was used, whereas noticeable increases in tool wear occurred when higher cutting speeds were employed for both tool types. These trends confirm the ANOVA outcomes that cutting speed has a significant effect on tool wear, with a PCR value of 39.22%, followed by tool type with a PCR of 27.40%. All machining trials generated similar continuous spiral or curl-shaped chips. A noticeable difference was found in the radius of the produced curl-shaped chips at different cutting speeds when turning AISI 304L under wet cutting conditions.

Keywords: AISI 304L alloy, conventional and wiper carbide tools, wet turning, average surface roughness, tool wear.

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317 Analysis and Design of Inductive Power Transfer Systems for Automotive Battery Charging Applications

Authors: Wahab Ali Shah, Junjia He

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Transferring electrical power without any wiring has been a dream since late 19th century. There were some advances in this area as to know more about microwave systems. However, this subject has recently become very attractive due to their practiScal systems. There are low power applications such as charging the batteries of contactless tooth brushes or implanted devices, and higher power applications such as charging the batteries of electrical automobiles or buses. In the first group of applications operating frequencies are in microwave range while the frequency is lower in high power applications. In the latter, the concept is also called inductive power transfer. The aim of the paper is to have an overview of the inductive power transfer for electrical vehicles with a special concentration on coil design and power converter simulation for static charging. Coil design is very important for an efficient and safe power transfer. Coil design is one of the most critical tasks. Power converters are used in both side of the system. The converter on the primary side is used to generate a high frequency voltage to excite the primary coil. The purpose of the converter in the secondary is to rectify the voltage transferred from the primary to charge the battery. In this paper, an inductive power transfer system is studied. Inductive power transfer is a promising technology with several possible applications. Operation principles of these systems are explained, and components of the system are described. Finally, a single phase 2 kW system was simulated and results were presented. The work presented in this paper is just an introduction to the concept. A reformed compensation network based on traditional inductor-capacitor-inductor (LCL) topology is proposed to realize robust reaction to large coupling variation that is common in dynamic wireless charging application. In the future, this type compensation should be studied. Also, comparison of different compensation topologies should be done for the same power level.

Keywords: Coil design, contactless charging, electrical automobiles, inductive power transfer, operating frequency.

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316 Energy Consumption, Emission Absorption and Carbon Emission Reduction on Semarang State University Campus

Authors: Dewi Liesnoor Setyowati, Puji Hardati, Tri Marhaeni Puji Astuti, Muhammad Amin

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Universitas Negeri Semarang (UNNES) is a university with a vision of conservation. The impact of the UNNES conservation is the existence of a positive response from the community for the effort of greening the campus and the planting of conservation value in the academic community. But in reality,  energy consumption in UNNES campus tends to increase. The objectives of the study were to analyze the energy consumption in the campus area, to analyze the absorption of emissions by trees and the awareness of UNNES citizens in reducing emissions. Research focuses on energy consumption, carbon emissions, and awareness of citizens in reducing emissions. Research subjects in this study are UNNES citizens (lecturers, students and employees). The research area covers 6 faculties and one administrative center building. Data collection is done by observation, interview and documentation. The research used a quantitative descriptive method to analyze the data. The number of trees in UNNES is 10,264. Total emission on campus UNNES is 7.862.281.56 kg/year, the tree absorption is 6,289,250.38 kg/year. In UNNES campus area there are still 1,575,031.18 kg/year of emissions, not yet absorbed by trees. There are only two areas of the faculty whose trees are capable of absorbing emissions. The awareness of UNNES citizens in reducing energy consumption is seen in change the habit of: using energy-saving equipment (65%); reduce energy consumption per unit (68%); do energy literacy for UNNES citizens (74%). UNNES leaders always provide motivation to the citizens of UNNES, to reduce and change patterns of energy consumption.

Keywords: Energy consumption, carbon emission absorption, emission reduction, energy literation.

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315 Preferred Character Size for Oblique Angles

Authors: Photjanat Phimnom, Haruetai Lohasiriwat

Abstract:

In today’s world, the LED display has been used for presenting visual information under various circumstances. Such information is an important intermediary in the human information processing. Researchers have been investigated diverse factors that influence this process effectiveness. The letter size is undoubtedly one major factor that has been tested and recommended by many standards and guidelines. However, viewing information on the display from direct perpendicular position is a typical assumption whereas many actual events are required viewing from the angles. This current research aims to study the effect of oblique viewing angle and viewing distance on ability to recognize alphabet, number, and English word. The total of ten participants was volunteered to our 3 x 4 x 4 within subject study. Independent variables include three distance levels (2, 6, and 12 m), four oblique angles (0, 45, 60, 75 degree), and four target types (alphabet, number, short word, and long word). Following the method of constant stimuli our study suggests that the larger oblique angle, ranging from 0 to 75 degree from the line of sight, results in significant higher legibility threshold or larger font size required (p-value < 0.05). Viewing distance factor also shows to have significant effect on the threshold (p-value < 0.05). However, the effect from distance factor is expected to be confounded by the quality of the screen used in our experiment. Lastly, our results show that single alphabet as well as single number are recognized at significant lower threshold (smaller font size) as compared to both short and long words (p-value < 0.05). Therefore, it is recommended that when designs information to be presented on LED display, understanding of all possible ranges of oblique angle should be taken into account in order to specify the preferred letter size. Additionally, the recommendation of letter size for 100% legibility in our tested conditions is provided in the paper.

Keywords: Letter Size, Oblique Angle, Viewing Distance, Legibility Threshold.

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314 Calibration of 2D and 3D Optical Measuring Instruments in Industrial Environments at Submillimeter Range

Authors: A. Mínguez-Martínez, J. de Vicente

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Modern manufacturing processes have led to the miniaturization of systems and, as a result, parts at the micro and nanoscale are produced. This trend seems to become increasingly important in the near future. Besides, as a requirement of Industry 4.0, the digitalization of the models of production and processes makes it very important to ensure that the dimensions of newly manufactured parts meet the specifications of the models. Therefore, it is possible to reduce the scrap and the cost of non-conformities, ensuring the stability of the production at the same time. To ensure the quality of manufactured parts, it becomes necessary to carry out traceable measurements at scales lower than one millimeter. Providing adequate traceability to the SI unit of length (the meter) to 2D and 3D measurements at this scale is a problem that does not have a unique solution in industrial environments. Researchers in the field of dimensional metrology all around the world are working on this issue. A solution for industrial environments, even if it is not complete, will enable working with some traceability. At this point, we believe that the study of the surfaces could provide us with a first approximation to a solution. In this paper, we propose a calibration procedure for the scales of optical measuring instruments, particularizing for a confocal microscope, using material standards easy to find and calibrate in metrology and quality laboratories in industrial environments. Confocal microscopes are measuring instruments capable of filtering the out-of-focus reflected light so that when it reaches the detector, it is possible to take pictures of the part of the surface that is focused. Varying and taking pictures at different Z levels of the focus, a specialized software interpolates between the different planes, and it could reconstruct the surface geometry into a 3D model. As it is easy to deduce, it is necessary to give traceability to each axis. As a complementary result, the roughness Ra parameter will be traced to the reference. Although the solution is designed for a confocal microscope, it may be used for the calibration of other optical measuring instruments, by applying minor changes.

Keywords: Industrial environment, confocal microscope, optical measuring instrument, traceability.

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313 Quality of Life Assessment across the Cancer Continuum: Understanding the Role of an Exercise Rehabilitation Programme

Authors: Bernat-Carles Serdà Ferrer, Arantza Del Valle Gómez

Abstract:

The Quality of Life (QoL) paradigm is multidimensional, dynamic and modular and its definition differs across the cancer continuum. The challenge in the interpretation of QoL data in clinical research is that QoL is influenced by psychological phenomena such as adaptation to illness. This research aims to obtain a valid and sensitive assessment of QoL change over the continuum disease, and to evaluate a rehabilitation programme aimed at inverting the observed decrease in QoL when patients return to daily living activities. The sample comprised 66 men. Patients were first assessed to establish a baseline (P1-diagnosis). This was followed by a post-test (P2-discharge) and a then-test measurement (P3-retrospective evaluation) and after returning home patients were randomized in experimental and control groups. The experimental group attended a rehabilitation programme over 24 weeks (P4). Results show that from baseline to post-test, QoL decreased significantly. The recalibration then-test confirmed a low QoL in all periods evaluated. Significant differences between the experimental and control groups prove the positive effect of the Exercise Rehabilitation Programme (ERP) on QoL. Understanding the real dynamic of QoL over time would help to adapt rehabilitation programmes by improving sensitivity and efficacy and provide professionals with a more accurate perception of the impact of treatment and side effects on patients’ QoL. Our results underline the importance of changing the approach adopted by health professionals towards one of watchful waiting on patients’ QoL until their complete recovery in daily life.

Keywords: Prostate cancer, quality of life, rehabilitation programme, response shift.

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312 Optimal Design of a PV/Diesel Hybrid System for Decentralized Areas through Economic Criteria

Authors: D. Tsuanyo, D. Aussel, Y. Azoumah, P. Neveu

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An innovative concept called “Flexy-Energy” is developing at 2iE. This concept aims to produce electricity at lower cost by smartly mix different available energy sources in accordance to the load profile of the region. With a higher solar irradiation and due to the fact that Diesel generator are massively used in sub-Saharan rural areas, PV/Diesel hybrid systems could be a good application of this concept and a good solution to electrify this region, provided they are reliable, cost effective and economically attractive to investors. Presentation of the developed approach is the aims of this paper. The PV/Diesel hybrid system designed consists to produce electricity and/or heat from a coupling between Diesel Diesel generators and PV panels without batteries storage, while ensuring the substitution of gasoil by bio-fuels available in the area where the system will be installed. The optimal design of this system is based on his technical performances; the Life Cycle Cost (LCC) and Levelized Cost of Energy are developed and use as economic criteria. The Net Present Value (NPV), the internal rate of return (IRR) and the discounted payback (DPB) are also evaluated according to dual electricity pricing (in sunny and unsunny hours). The PV/Diesel hybrid system obtained is compared to the standalone Diesel Diesel generators. The approach carried out in this paper has been applied to Siby village in Mali (Latitude 12 ° 23'N 8 ° 20'W) with 295 kWh as daily demand.This approach provides optimal physical characteristics (size of the components, number of component) and dynamical characteristics in real time (number of Diesel generator on, their load rate, fuel specific consumptions, and PV penetration rate) of the system. The system obtained is slightly cost effective; but could be improved with optimized tariffing strategies.

Keywords: Investments criteria, Optimization, PV hybrid, Sizing, Rural electrification.

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311 Detecting Financial Bubbles Using Gap between Common Stocks and Preferred Stocks

Authors: Changju Lee, Seungmo Ku, Sondo Kim, Woojin Chang

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How to detecting financial bubble? Addressing this simple question has been the focus of a vast amount of empirical research spanning almost half a century. However, financial bubble is hard to observe and varying over the time; there needs to be more research on this area. In this paper, we used abnormal difference between common stocks price and those preferred stocks price to explain financial bubble. First, we proposed the ‘W-index’ which indicates spread between common stocks and those preferred stocks in stock market. Second, to prove that this ‘W-index’ is valid for measuring financial bubble, we showed that there is an inverse relationship between this ‘W-index’ and S&P500 rate of return. Specifically, our hypothesis is that when ‘W-index’ is comparably higher than other periods, financial bubbles are added up in stock market and vice versa; according to our hypothesis, if investors made long term investments when ‘W-index’ is high, they would have negative rate of return; however, if investors made long term investments when ‘W-index’ is low, they would have positive rate of return. By comparing correlation values and adjusted R-squared values of between W-index and S&P500 return, VIX index and S&P500 return, and TED index and S&P500 return, we showed only W-index has significant relationship between S&P500 rate of return. In addition, we figured out how long investors should hold their investment position regard the effect of financial bubble. Using this W-index, investors could measure financial bubble in the market and invest with low risk.

Keywords: Financial bubbles, detection, preferred stocks, pairs trading, future return, forecast.

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310 Text Mining Technique for Data Mining Application

Authors: M. Govindarajan

Abstract:

Text Mining is around applying knowledge discovery techniques to unstructured text is termed knowledge discovery in text (KDT), or Text data mining or Text Mining. In decision tree approach is most useful in classification problem. With this technique, tree is constructed to model the classification process. There are two basic steps in the technique: building the tree and applying the tree to the database. This paper describes a proposed C5.0 classifier that performs rulesets, cross validation and boosting for original C5.0 in order to reduce the optimization of error ratio. The feasibility and the benefits of the proposed approach are demonstrated by means of medial data set like hypothyroid. It is shown that, the performance of a classifier on the training cases from which it was constructed gives a poor estimate by sampling or using a separate test file, either way, the classifier is evaluated on cases that were not used to build and evaluate the classifier are both are large. If the cases in hypothyroid.data and hypothyroid.test were to be shuffled and divided into a new 2772 case training set and a 1000 case test set, C5.0 might construct a different classifier with a lower or higher error rate on the test cases. An important feature of see5 is its ability to classifiers called rulesets. The ruleset has an error rate 0.5 % on the test cases. The standard errors of the means provide an estimate of the variability of results. One way to get a more reliable estimate of predictive is by f-fold –cross- validation. The error rate of a classifier produced from all the cases is estimated as the ratio of the total number of errors on the hold-out cases to the total number of cases. The Boost option with x trials instructs See5 to construct up to x classifiers in this manner. Trials over numerous datasets, large and small, show that on average 10-classifier boosting reduces the error rate for test cases by about 25%.

Keywords: C5.0, Error Ratio, text mining, training data, test data.

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309 Spatial Variation of WRF Model Rainfall Prediction over Uganda

Authors: Isaac Mugume, Charles Basalirwa, Daniel Waiswa, Triphonia Ngailo

Abstract:

Rainfall is a major climatic parameter affecting many sectors such as health, agriculture and water resources. Its quantitative prediction remains a challenge to weather forecasters although numerical weather prediction models are increasingly being used for rainfall prediction. The performance of six convective parameterization schemes, namely the Kain-Fritsch scheme, the Betts-Miller-Janjic scheme, the Grell-Deveny scheme, the Grell-3D scheme, the Grell-Fretas scheme, the New Tiedke scheme of the weather research and forecast (WRF) model regarding quantitative rainfall prediction over Uganda is investigated using the root mean square error for the March-May (MAM) 2013 season. The MAM 2013 seasonal rainfall amount ranged from 200 mm to 900 mm over Uganda with northern region receiving comparatively lower rainfall amount (200–500 mm); western Uganda (270–550 mm); eastern Uganda (400–900 mm) and the lake Victoria basin (400–650 mm). A spatial variation in simulated rainfall amount by different convective parameterization schemes was noted with the Kain-Fritsch scheme over estimating the rainfall amount over northern Uganda (300–750 mm) but also presented comparable rainfall amounts over the eastern Uganda (400–900 mm). The Betts-Miller-Janjic, the Grell-Deveny, and the Grell-3D underestimated the rainfall amount over most parts of the country especially the eastern region (300–600 mm). The Grell-Fretas captured rainfall amount over the northern region (250–450 mm) but also underestimated rainfall over the lake Victoria Basin (150–300 mm) while the New Tiedke generally underestimated rainfall amount over many areas of Uganda. For deterministic rainfall prediction, the Grell-Fretas is recommended for rainfall prediction over northern Uganda while the Kain-Fritsch scheme is recommended over eastern region.

Keywords: Convective parameterization schemes, March-May 2013 rainfall season, spatial variation of parameterization schemes over Uganda, WRF model.

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308 Effect of Environmental Changes in Working Heart Rate among Industrial Workers: An Ergonomic Interpretation

Authors: P. Mukhopadhyay, N. C. Dey

Abstract:

Occupational health hazard is a very common term in every emerging country. Along with the unorganized sector, most organized sectors including government industries are suffering from this affliction. In addition to workload, the seasonal changes also have some impacts on working environment. With this focus in mind, one hundred male industrial workers, who are directly involved to the task of Periodic Overhauling (POH) in a fabricating workshop in the public domain are selected for this research work. They have been studied during work periods throughout different seasons in a year. For each and every season, the participants working heart rate (WHR) is measured and compared with the standards given by different national and internationally recognized agencies i.e., World Health Organization (WHO) and American Conference of Governmental Industrial Hygienists (ACGIH) etc. The different environmental parameters i.e. dry bulb temperature (DBT), wet bulb temperature (WBT), globe temperature (GT), natural wet bulb temperature (NWB), relative humidity (RH), wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT), air velocity (AV), effective temperature (ET) are recorded throughout the seasons to critically observe the effect of seasonal changes on the WHR of the workers. The effect of changes in environment to the WHR of the workers is very much surprising. It is found that the percentages of workers who belong to the ‘very heavy’ workload category are 83.33%, 66.66% and 16.66% in the summer, rainy and winter seasons, respectively. Ongoing undertaking of this type of job profile forces the worker towards occupational disorders causing absenteeism. This occurrence results in lower production rates, and on the other hand, costs due to medical claims also weaken the industry’s economic condition. In this circumstance, the authors are trying to focus on some remedial measures from the ergonomic angle by proposing a new work/ rest regimen and introducing engineering controls along with management controls which may help the worker, and consequently, the management also.

Keywords: Environmental changes, industrial worker, working heart rate, workload, occupational health hazard.

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307 Ports and Airports: Gateways to Vector-Borne Diseases in Portugal Mainland

Authors: Maria C. Proença, Maria T. Rebelo, Maria J. Alves, Sofia Cunha

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Vector-borne diseases are transmitted to humans by mosquitos, sandflies, bugs, ticks, and other vectors. Some are re-transmitted between vectors, if the infected human has a new contact when his levels of infection are high. The vector is infected for lifetime and can transmit infectious diseases not only between humans but also from animals to humans. Some vector borne diseases are very disabling and globally account for more than one million deaths worldwide. The mosquitoes from the complex Culex pipiens sl. are the most abundant in Portugal, and we dispose in this moment of a data set from the surveillance program that has been carried on since 2006 across the country. All mosquitos’ species are included, but the large coverage of Culex pipiens sl. and its importance for public health make this vector an interesting candidate to assess risk of disease amplification. This work focus on ports and airports identified as key areas of high density of vectors. Mosquitoes being ectothermic organisms, the main factor for vector survival and pathogen development is temperature. Minima and maxima local air temperatures for each area of interest are averaged by month from data gathered on a daily basis at the national network of meteorological stations, and interpolated in a geographic information system (GIS). The range of temperatures ideal for several pathogens are known and this work shows how to use it with the meteorological data in each port and airport facility, to focus an efficient implementation of countermeasures and reduce simultaneously risk transmission and mitigation costs. The results show an increased alert with decreasing latitude, which corresponds to higher minimum and maximum temperatures and a lower amplitude range of the daily temperature.

Keywords: Human health, risk assessment, risk management, vector-borne diseases.

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306 PRENACEL: Development and Evaluation of an M-Health Strategy to Improve Prenatal Care in Brazil

Authors: E. M. Vieira, C. S. Vieira, L. P. Bonifácio, L. M. de Oliveira Ciabati, A. C. A. Franzon, F. S. Zaratini, J. A. C. Sanchez, M. S. Andrade, J. P. Dias de Souza

Abstract:

The quality of prenatal care is key to reduce maternal morbidity and mortality. Communication between the health service and users can stimulate prevention and care. M-health has been an important and low cost strategy to health education. The PRENACEL programme (prenatal in the cell phone) was developed. It consists of a programme of information via SMS from the 20th week of pregnancy up to 12th week after delivery. Messages were about prenatal care, birth, contraception and breastfeeding. Communication of the pregnant woman asking questions about their health was possible. The objective of this study was to evaluate the implementation of PRENACEL as a useful complement to the standard prenatal care. Twenty health clinics were selected and randomized by cluster, 10 as the intervention group and 10 as the control group. In the intervention group, women and their partner were invited to participate. The control group received the standard prenatal care. All women were interviewed in the immediate post-partum and in the 12th and 24th week post-partum. Most women were married, had more than 8 years of schooling and visit the clinic more than 6 times during prenatal care. The intervention group presented lowest percentage of higher economic participants (5.6%), less single mothers and no drug user. It also presented more prenatal care visits than the control group and it was less likely to present Severe Acute Maternal Mortality when compared to control group as well as higher percentage of partners (75.4%) was present at the birth compared to control group. Although the study is still being carried out, preliminary data are showing positive results of the compliance of women to prenatal care.

Keywords: Cellphone, health technology, prenatal care, prevention.

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305 Products in Early Development Phases: Ecological Classification and Evaluation Using an Interval Arithmetic Based Calculation Approach

Authors: Helen L. Hein, Joachim Schwarte

Abstract:

As a pillar of sustainable development, ecology has become an important milestone in research community, especially due to global challenges like climate change. The ecological performance of products can be scientifically conducted with life cycle assessments. In the construction sector, significant amounts of CO2 emissions are assigned to the energy used for building heating purposes. Therefore, sustainable construction materials for insulating purposes are substantial, whereby aerogels have been explored intensively in the last years due to their low thermal conductivity. Therefore, the WALL-ACE project aims to develop an aerogel-based thermal insulating plaster that would achieve minor thermal conductivities. But as in the early stage of development phases, a lot of information is still missing or not yet accessible, the ecological performance of innovative products bases increasingly on uncertain data that can lead to significant deviations in the results. To be able to predict realistically how meaningful the results are and how viable the developed products may be with regard to their corresponding respective market, these deviations however have to be considered. Therefore, a classification method is presented in this study, which may allow comparing the ecological performance of modern products with already established and competitive materials. In order to achieve this, an alternative calculation method was used that allows computing with lower and upper bounds to consider all possible values without precise data. The life cycle analysis of the considered products was conducted with an interval arithmetic based calculation method. The results lead to the conclusion that the interval solutions describing the possible environmental impacts are so wide that the result usability is limited. Nevertheless, a further optimization in reducing environmental impacts of aerogels seems to be needed to become more competitive in the future.

Keywords: Aerogel-based, insulating material, early develop¬ment phase, interval arithmetic.

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304 Participation in Co-Curricular Activities of Undergraduate Nursing Students Attending the Leadership Promoting Program Based on Self-Directed Learning Approach

Authors: Porntipa Taksin, Jutamas Wongchan, Amornrat Karamee

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The researchers’ experience of student affairs in 2011-2013, we found that few undergraduate nursing students become student association members who participated in co-curricular activities, they have limited skill of self-directed-learning and leadership. We developed “A Leadership Promoting Program” using Self-Directed Learning concept. The program included six activities: 1) Breaking the ice, Decoding time, Creative SMO, Know me-Understand you, Positive thinking, and Creative dialogue, which include four aspects of these activities: decision-making, implementation, benefits, and evaluation. The one-group, pretest-posttest quasi-experimental research was designed to examine the effects of the program on participation in co-curricular activities. Thirty five students participated in the program. All were members of the board of undergraduate nursing student association of Boromarajonani College of Nursing, Chonburi. All subjects completed the questionnaire about participation in the activities at beginning and at the end of the program. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and dependent t-test. The results showed that the posttest scores of all four aspects mean were significantly higher than the pretest scores (t=3.30, p<.01). Three aspects had high mean scores, Benefits (Mean = 3.24, S.D. = 0.83), Decision-making (Mean = 3.21, S.D. = 0.59), and Implementation (Mean=3.06, S.D.=0.52). However, scores on evaluation falls in moderate scale (Mean = 2.68, S.D. = 1.13). Therefore, the Leadership Promoting Program based on Self-Directed Learning Approach could be a method to improve students’ participation in co-curricular activities and leadership.

Keywords: Participation in co-curricular activities, undergraduate nursing students, leadership promoting program, self-directed learning.

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303 Methodology for Quantifying the Meaning of Information in Biological Systems

Authors: Richard L. Summers

Abstract:

The advanced computational analysis of biological systems is becoming increasingly dependent upon an understanding of the information-theoretic structure of the materials, energy and interactive processes that comprise those systems. The stability and survival of these living systems is fundamentally contingent upon their ability to acquire and process the meaning of information concerning the physical state of its biological continuum (biocontinuum). The drive for adaptive system reconciliation of a divergence from steady state within this biocontinuum can be described by an information metric-based formulation of the process for actionable knowledge acquisition that incorporates the axiomatic inference of Kullback-Leibler information minimization driven by survival replicator dynamics. If the mathematical expression of this process is the Lagrangian integrand for any change within the biocontinuum then it can also be considered as an action functional for the living system. In the direct method of Lyapunov, such a summarizing mathematical formulation of global system behavior based on the driving forces of energy currents and constraints within the system can serve as a platform for the analysis of stability. As the system evolves in time in response to biocontinuum perturbations, the summarizing function then conveys information about its overall stability. This stability information portends survival and therefore has absolute existential meaning for the living system. The first derivative of the Lyapunov energy information function will have a negative trajectory toward a system steady state if the driving force is dissipating. By contrast, system instability leading to system dissolution will have a positive trajectory. The direction and magnitude of the vector for the trajectory then serves as a quantifiable signature of the meaning associated with the living system’s stability information, homeostasis and survival potential.

Keywords: Semiotic meaning, Shannon information, Lyapunov, living systems.

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302 The Link between Anthropometry and Fat-Based Obesity Indices in Pediatric Morbid Obesity

Authors: Mustafa M. Donma, Orkide Donma

Abstract:

Anthropometric measurements are essential for obesity studies. Waist circumference (WC) is the most frequently used measure and along with hip circumference (HC), it is used in most equations derived for the evaluation of obese individuals. Morbid obesity (MO) is the most severe clinical form of obesity and such individuals may also exhibit some clinical findings leading to metabolic syndrome (MetS). Then, it becomes a requirement to discriminate MO children with MetS (MOMetS+) from MO children without MetS (MOMetS-). Almost all obesity indices can differentiate obese (OB) children from children with normal body mass index (N-BMI). However, not all of them are capable of making this distinction. The aim of this study was to find out the clinical availability of (waist circumference + hip circumference)/2 ((WC+HC)/2) for the differential diagnosis of MOMetS+ and MOMetS- and to compare the possible preponderance of it over some other anthropometric or fat-based obesity indices. 45 MOMetS+ and 45 MOMetS- children were included in the study. Participants have submitted informed consent forms. The study protocol was approved by the Non-interventional Clinical Studies Ethics Committee of Tekirdag Namik Kemal University. Anthropometric measurements were performed. BMI, waist-to-hip circumference (WHR), (WC+HC)/2, trunk-to-leg fat ratio (TLFR), trunk-to-appendicular fat ratio (TAFR), trunk fat+leg fat/2 ((trunk+leg fat)/2), diagnostic obesity notation model assessment index-2 (D2I) and fat mass index (FMI) were calculated for both groups. Study data were analyzed statistically and 0.05 for p value was accepted as the statistical significance degree. Statistically higher BMI, WC, (WC+HC)/2, (trunk+leg fat)/2 values were found in MOMetS+ children than MOMetS- children. No statistically significant difference was detected for WHR, TLFR, TAFR, D2I and FMI between two groups. The lack of difference between the groups in terms of FMI and D2I pointed out the fact that the recently developed fat-based index; (trunk+leg fat)/2 gives much more valuable information during the evaluation of MOMetS+ and MOMetS- children. Upon evaluation of the correlations, (WC+HC)/2 was strongly correlated with D2I and FMI in both MOMetS+ and MOMetS- groups. Neither D2I nor FMI was correlated with W/H. Strong correlations were calculated between (WC+HC)/2 and (trunk+leg fat)/2 in both MOMetS- (r = 0.961; p < 0.001) and MOMetS+ (r = 0.936; p < 0.001) groups. Partial correlations between (WC+HC)/2 and (trunk+leg fat)/2 after controlling the effect of basal metabolic rate were r = 0.726; p < 0.001 in MOMetS- group and r = 0.932; p < 0.001 in MOMetS+ group. The correlation in the latter group was higher than the first group. In conclusion, recently developed anthropometric obesity index (WC+HC)/2 and fat-based obesity index (trunk+leg fat)/2 were of preponderance over the previously introduced classical obesity indices such as WHR, D2I and FMI during the differential diagnosis of MOMetS+ and MOMetS- children.

Keywords: Hip circumference, metabolic syndrome, morbid obesity, waist circumference.

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301 The Investigation on the Relationship between Religion and Development: By Focusing on Islam

Authors: Dalal Benboutrif

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Religion and Development relation is one of the most arguable phrases amongst politicians, philosophers, clerics, scientists, sociologists and even the public. The main objective of this research is to clarify the relations, contrasts and interactions between religion and the major types of development including social, political, economic and scientific developments, by focusing on Islam religion. A review of the literature was performed concerning religion and development relations and conflicts, by focusing on Islam religion and then the unprocessed tips of the review were characterized. Regarding clarification of the key points of the literature, three main sectors were considered in the research. The first sector of the research mainly focused on the philosophical views on religion, which were analyzed by main evaluation of three famous philosophers’ ideas: ‘Kant’, ‘Hegel’ and ‘Weber’, and then a critical discussion on Weber’s idea about Islam and development was applied. The second sector was specified to ‘Religion and Development’ and mainly discussed the role of religion in development through poverty reduction, the interconnection of religion, spirituality and social development, religious education effects on social development, and the relation of religion with political development. The third sector was specified to ‘Islam and Development’ and mainly discussed the Islamic golden age of science, major reasons of today’s backwardness (non-development) of most Islamic countries, and Quranic instructions regarding adaptability of Islam with development. The findings of the current research approved the research hypothesis as: ‘Religious instructions (included Islam) are not in conflict with development’, rather, it could have positive effects mainly on social development and it can pave the way for society to develop. Turkey was considered as a study model, as a successful developed Islamic country demonstrating the non-conflicting relation of Islam and development.

Keywords: Development, Islam, philosophy, religion.

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300 Increasing Power Transfer Capacity of Distribution Networks Using Direct Current Feeders

Authors: Akim Borbuev, Francisco de León

Abstract:

Economic and population growth in densely-populated urban areas introduce major challenges to distribution system operators, planers, and designers. To supply added loads, utilities are frequently forced to invest in new distribution feeders. However, this is becoming increasingly more challenging due to space limitations and rising installation costs in urban settings. This paper proposes the conversion of critical alternating current (ac) distribution feeders into direct current (dc) feeders to increase the power transfer capacity by a factor as high as four. Current trends suggest that the return of dc transmission, distribution, and utilization are inevitable. Since a total system-level transformation to dc operation is not possible in a short period of time due to the needed huge investments and utility unreadiness, this paper recommends that feeders that are expected to exceed their limits in near future are converted to dc. The increase in power transfer capacity is achieved through several key differences between ac and dc power transmission systems. First, it is shown that underground cables can be operated at higher dc voltage than the ac voltage for the same dielectric stress in the insulation. Second, cable sheath losses, due to induced voltages yielding circulation currents, that can be as high as phase conductor losses under ac operation, are not present under dc. Finally, skin and proximity effects in conductors and sheaths do not exist in dc cables. The paper demonstrates that in addition to the increased power transfer capacity utilities substituting ac feeders by dc feeders could benefit from significant lower costs and reduced losses. Installing dc feeders is less expensive than installing new ac feeders even when new trenches are not needed. Case studies using the IEEE 342-Node Low Voltage Networked Test System quantify the technical and economic benefits of dc feeders.

Keywords: Dc power systems, distribution feeders, distribution networks, energy efficiency, power transfer capacity.

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299 Evaluating Accuracy of Foetal Weight Estimation by Clinicians in Christian Medical College Hospital, India and Its Correlation to Actual Birth Weight: A Clinical Audit

Authors: Aarati Susan Mathew, Radhika Narendra Patel, Jiji Mathew

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A retrospective study conducted at Christian Medical College (CMC) Teaching Hospital, Vellore, India on 14th August 2014 to assess the accuracy of clinically estimated foetal weight upon labour admission. Estimating foetal weight is a crucial factor in assessing maternal and foetal complications during and after labour. Medical notes of ninety-eight postnatal women who fulfilled the inclusion criteria were studied to evaluate the correlation between their recorded Estimated Foetal Weight (EFW) on admission and actual birth weight (ABW) of the newborn after delivery. Data concerning maternal and foetal demographics was also noted. Accuracy was determined by absolute percentage error and proportion of estimates within 10% of ABW. Actual birth weights ranged from 950-4080g. A strong positive correlation between EFW and ABW (r=0.904) was noted. Term deliveries (≥40 weeks) in the normal weight range (2500-4000g) had a 59.5% estimation accuracy (n=74) compared to pre-term (<40 weeks) with an estimation accuracy of 0% (n=2). Out of the term deliveries, macrosomic babies (>4000g) were underestimated by 25% (n=3) and low birthweight (LBW) babies were overestimated by 12.7% (n=9). Registrars who estimated foetal weight were accurate in babies within normal weight ranges. However, there needs to be an improvement in predicting weight of macrosomic and LBW foetuses. We have suggested the use of an amended version of the Johnson’s formula for the Indian population for improvement and a need to re-audit once implemented.

Keywords: Clinical palpation, estimated foetal weight, pregnancy, India, Johnson’s formula.

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298 The U.S. Missile Defense Shield and Global Security Destabilization: An Inconclusive Link

Authors: Michael A. Unbehauen, Gregory D. Sloan, Alberto J. Squatrito

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Missile proliferation and global stability are intrinsically linked. Missile threats continually appear at the forefront of global security issues. North Korea’s recently demonstrated nuclear and intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capabilities, for the first time since the Cold War, renewed public interest in strategic missile defense capabilities. To protect from limited ICBM attacks from so-called rogue actors, the United States developed the Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD) system. This study examines if the GMD missile defense shield has contributed to a safer world or triggered a new arms race. Based upon increased missile-related developments and the lack of adherence to international missile treaties, it is generally perceived that the GMD system is a destabilizing factor for global security. By examining the current state of arms control treaties as well as existing missile arsenals and ongoing efforts in technologies to overcome U.S. missile defenses, this study seeks to analyze the contribution of GMD to global stability. A thorough investigation cannot ignore that, through the establishment of this limited capability, the U.S. violated longstanding, successful weapons treaties and caused concern among states that possess ICBMs. GMD capability contributes to the perception that ICBM arsenals could become ineffective, creating an imbalance in favor of the United States, leading to increased global instability and tension. While blame for the deterioration of global stability and non-adherence to arms control treaties is often placed on U.S. missile defense, the facts do not necessarily support this view. The notion of a renewed arms race due to GMD is supported neither by current missile arsenals nor by the inevitable development of new and enhanced missile technology, to include multiple independently targeted reentry vehicles (MIRVs), maneuverable reentry vehicles (MaRVs), and hypersonic glide vehicles (HGVs). The methodology in this study encapsulates a period of time, pre- and post-GMD introduction, while analyzing international treaty adherence, missile counts and types, and research in new missile technologies. The decline in international treaty adherence, coupled with a measurable increase in the number and types of missiles or research in new missile technologies during the period after the introduction of GMD, could be perceived as a clear indicator of GMD contributing to global instability. However, research into improved technology (MIRV, MaRV and HGV) prior to GMD, as well as a decline of various global missile inventories and testing of systems during this same period, would seem to invalidate this theory. U.S. adversaries have exploited the perception of the U.S. missile defense shield as a destabilizing factor as a pretext to strengthen and modernize their militaries and justify their policies. As a result, it can be concluded that global stability has not significantly decreased due to GMD; but rather, the natural progression of technological and missile development would inherently include innovative and dynamic approaches to target engagement, deterrence, and national defense.

Keywords: Arms control, arms race, global security, GMD, ICBM, missile defense, proliferation.

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