Search results for: specialization variable

Authors: Abhijit Mitra

Abstract:

Different pseudo-random or pseudo-noise (PN) as well as orthogonal sequences that can be used as spreading codes for code division multiple access (CDMA) cellular networks or can be used for encrypting speech signals to reduce the residual intelligence are investigated. We briefly review the theoretical background for direct sequence CDMA systems and describe the main characteristics of the maximal length, Gold, Barker, and Kasami sequences. We also discuss about variable- and fixed-length orthogonal codes like Walsh- Hadamard codes. The equivalence of PN and orthogonal codes are also derived. Finally, a new PN sequence is proposed which is shown to have certain better properties than the existing codes.

Keywords: Code division multiple access, pseudo-noise codes, maximal length, Gold, Barker, Kasami, Walsh-Hadamard, autocorrelation, crosscorrelation, figure of merit.

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Authors: Svetlana Saksonova

Abstract:

Every commercial bank optimises its asset portfolio depending on the profitability of assets and chosen or imposed constraints. This paper proposes and applies a stylized model for optimising banks' asset and liability structure, reflecting profitability of different asset categories and their risks as well as costs associated with different liability categories and reserve requirements. The level of detail for asset and liability categories is chosen to create a suitably parsimonious model and to include the most important categories in the model. It is shown that the most appropriate optimisation criterion for the model is the maximisation of the ratio of net interest income to assets. The maximisation of this ratio is subject to several constraints. Some are accounting identities or dictated by legislative requirements; others vary depending on the market objectives for a particular bank. The model predicts variable amount of assets allocated to loan provision.

Keywords: asset structure, commercial bank, model, optimisation

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Authors: Reinhard Neck, Guido Schäfer

Abstract:

In this paper, we explore the macroeconomic effects of the European Single Market on Austria by simulating the McKibbin-Sachs Global Model. Global interdependences and the impact of long-run effects on short-run adjustments are taken into account. We study the sensitivity of the results with respect to different assumptions concerning monetary and fiscal policies for the countries and regions of the world economy. The consequences of different assumptions about budgetary policies in Austria are also investigated. The simulation results are contrasted with ex-post evaluations of the actual impact of Austria’s membership in the Single Market. As a result, it can be concluded that the Austrian participation in the European Single Market entails considerable long-run gains for the Austrian economy with nearly no adverse sideeffects on any macroeconomic target variable.

Keywords: Macroeconomics, European Union, simulation, sensitivity analysis.

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Authors: Swanti Satsangi, Ashish Gulati, Prem Kumar Kalra, C. Patvardhan

Abstract:

Due to the non- intuitive nature of Quantum algorithms, it becomes difficult for a classically trained person to efficiently construct new ones. So rather than designing new algorithms manually, lately, Genetic algorithms (GA) are being implemented for this purpose. GA is a technique to automatically solve a problem using principles of Darwinian evolution. This has been implemented to explore the possibility of evolving an n-qubit circuit when the circuit matrix has been provided using a set of single, two and three qubit gates. Using a variable length population and universal stochastic selection procedure, a number of possible solution circuits, with different number of gates can be obtained for the same input matrix during different runs of GA. The given algorithm has also been successfully implemented to obtain two and three qubit Boolean circuits using Quantum gates. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the GA procedure even when the search spaces are large.

Keywords: Ancillas, Boolean functions, Genetic algorithm, Oracles, Quantum circuits, Scratch bit

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Authors: Jana Kisková, Dana Gabriková

Abstract:

Monoamine oxidase A gene (MAOA) is suggested to be a candidate gene implicated in many neuropsychiatric disorders, including autism spectrum disorder (ASD). This meta-analytic review evaluates the relationship between ASD and MAOA markers such as 30 bp variable number tandem repeats in the promoter region (uVNTR) and single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) by using findings from recently published studies. It seems that in Caucasian males, the risk of developing ASD increase with the presence of 4- repeat allele in the promoter region of MAOA gene whereas no differences were found between autistic patients and controls in Egyptian, West Bengal and Korean population. Some studies point to the importance of specific haplotype groups of SNPs and interaction of MAOA with others genes (e. g. FOXP2 or SRY). The results of existing studies are insufficient and further research is needed.

Keywords: Autism spectrum disorder, MAOA, uVNTR, single nucleotide polymorphism.

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Authors: Prateek Kishore, T. M. Muruganandam

Abstract:

Supersonic wind tunnel nozzles are generally capable of producing a constant Mach number flow in the test section of the wind tunnel. As a result, most of the supersonic vehicles are widely designed using steady state flow characteristics which may have errors while facing unsteady situations. This study aims to explore the possibility of varying the Mach number of the flow during wind tunnel operation. The nozzle walls are restricted to be inflexible for cooling near the throat due to high stagnation temperature requirement of the flow to simulate the conditions as experienced by the vehicle. Two simple independent mechanisms, rotation and translation of nozzle walls have been analyzed and the nozzle ranges have been optimized to vary the Mach number from Mach 2 to Mach 5 using minimum number of nozzles in the wind tunnel.

Keywords: Method of characteristics, Nozzle, supersonic wind tunnel, variable Mach number.

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Authors: S. Leghmizi, S. Liu, F. Naeim

Abstract:

This paper presents a fuzzy control system for a three degree of freedom (3-DOF) stabilized platform with explicit decoupling scheme. The system under consideration is a system with strong interactions between three channels. By using the concept of decentralized control, a control structure is developed that is composed of three control loops, each of which is associated with a single-variable fuzzy controller and a decoupling unit. Takagi-Sugeno (TS) fuzzy control algorithm is used to implement the fuzzy controller. The decoupling units design is based on the adaptive theory reasoning. Simulation tests were established using Simulink of Matlab. The obtained results have demonstrated the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed approach. Simulation results are represented in this paper.

Keywords: 3-DOF platform of a ship carried antenna, the concept of decentralized control, Takagi-Sugeno (TS) fuzzy control algorithm, Simulink.

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Authors: Seema Kapoor, Uma Batra

Abstract:

In this study, hydroxyapatite (HA) composites are prepared on addition of 30%CaO-30%P2O5-40%Na2 O based glass to pure HA, in proportion of 2, 5, and 10 wt %. Each composition was sintered over a range of temperatures. The quantitative phase analysis was carried out using XRD and the microstructures were studied using SEM. The density, microhardness, and compressive strength have shown increase with the increasing amount of glass addition. The resulting composites have chemical compositions that are similar to the inorganic constituent of the mineral part of bone, and constitutes trace elements like Na. X-ray diffraction showed no decomposition of HA to secondary phases, however, the glass reinforced-HA composites contained a HA phase and variable amounts of tricalcium phosphate phase, depending on the amount of bioglass added. The HA-composite material exhibited higher compressive strength compared to sintered HA. The HA composite reinforced with 10 wt % bioglass showed highest bioactivity level.

Keywords: Bioactivity, Bioglass, Compressive strength, Hydroxyapatite.

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Authors: Chuen-Ching Wang, Yao-Tang Chang, Yu-Chang Hsu

Abstract:

A simple but effective digital watermarking scheme utilizing a context adaptive variable length coding (CAVLC) method is presented for wireless communication system. In the proposed approach, the watermark bits are embedded in the final non-zero quantized coefficient of each DCT block, thereby yielding a potential reduction in the length of the coded block. As a result, the watermarking scheme not only provides the means to check the authenticity and integrity of the video stream, but also improves the compression ratio and therefore reduces both the transmission time and the storage space requirements of the coded video sequence. The results confirm that the proposed scheme enables the detection of malicious tampering attacks and reduces the size of the coded H.264 file. Therefore, the current study is feasible to apply in the video applications of wireless communication such as 3G system

Keywords: 3G, wireless communication, CAVLC, digitalwatermarking, motion compensation

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Authors: Othon Kamariotis

Abstract:

This paper provides a flexible way of controlling Variable-Bit-Rate (VBR) of compressed digital video, applicable to the new H264 video compression standard. The entire video sequence is assessed in advance and the quantisation level is then set such that bit rate (and thus the frame rate) remains within predetermined limits compatible with the bandwidth of the transmission system and the capabilities of the remote end, while at the same time providing constant quality similar to VBR encoding. A process for avoiding buffer starvation by selectively eliminating frames from the encoded output at times when the frame rate is slow (large number of bits per frame) will be also described. Finally, the problem of buffer overflow will be solved by selectively eliminating frames from the received input to the decoder. The decoder detects the omission of the frames and resynchronizes the transmission by monitoring time stamps and repeating frames if necessary.

Keywords: H264, CBR, VBR, Video Streaming, Digital Video, Multimedia, Buffering, Encoding, Decoding, Compression, Video-On-Demand

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Authors: Abdellatif Kasbi, Abderrafii Rahali

Abstract:

This paper appraises the performances of two control scenarios, for doubly fed induction generator (DFIG) operating in wind generation system (WGS), which are the direct decoupled control (DDC) and indirect decoupled control (IDC). Both control scenarios studied combines vector control and Maximum Power Point Tracking (MPPT) control theory so as to maximize the captured power through wind turbine. Modeling of DFIG based WGS and details of both control scenarios have been presented, a proportional integral controller is employed in the active and reactive power control loops for both control methods. The performance of the both control scenarios in terms of power reference tracking and robustness against machine parameters inconstancy has been shown, analyzed and compared, which can afford a reference to the operators and engineers of a wind farm. All simulations have been implemented via MATLAB/Simulink.

Keywords: DFIG, WGS, DDC, IDC, vector control, MPPT.

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Authors: Alireza Vakili, Mohsen Danesh Mesgaran, Majid Abdollazade

Abstract:

In this study four Holstein steers with rumen fistula fed 7 kg of dry matter (DM) of diets differing in concentrate to alfalfa hay ratios as 60:40, 70:30, 80:20, and 90:10 in a 4 × 4 latin square design. The pH of the ruminal fluid was measured before the morning feeding (0.0 h) to 8 h post feeding. In this study, a two-layered feed-forward neural network trained by the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm was used for modelling of ruminal pH. The input variables of the network were time, concentrate to alfalfa hay ratios (C/F), non fiber carbohydrate (NFC) and neutral detergent fiber (NDF). The output variable was the ruminal pH. The modeling results showed that there was excellent agreement between the experimental data and predicted values, with a high determination coefficient (R2 >0.96). Therefore, we suggest using these model-derived biological values to summarize continuously recorded pH data.

Keywords: Ruminal pH, Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Non Fiber Carbohydrate, Neutral Detergent Fiber.

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Authors: Ying-Hsiu Chen, Pao-Peng Hsu, Mou-Yuan Liao, Shu-Min Hsieh

Abstract:

This paper employs a the variable returns to scale DEA model to take account of risky assets and estimate the operating efficiencies for the 21 domestic listed securities firms during the period 2005-2009. Evidence is found that on average the brokerage securities firms- operating efficiencies are better than integrated securities firms. Evidence is also found that the technical inefficiency from inappropriate management constitutes the main source of the operating inefficiency for both types of securities firms. Moreover, the scale economies prevail in brokerage and integrated securities firms, in other words, which exhibit the characteristic of increasing returns to scale.

Keywords: Data Envelopment Analysis, Risky Assets, PureTechnical Efficiency, Scale Efficiency, Scale Economies.

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Authors: T. K. Das, N. Senapatil, R. K. Dhal

Abstract:

An unsteady mixed free convection MHD flow of elastic-viscous incompressible fluid past an infinite vertical porous flat plate is investigated when the presence of heat Source/sink, temperature and concentration are assumed to be oscillating with time and hall effect. The governing equations are solved by complex variable technique. The expressions for the velocity field, temperature field and species concentration are demonstrated in graphs. The effects of the Prandtl number, the Grashof number, modified Grashof number, the Schimidt number, the Hall parameter, Elastic parameter & Magnetic parameter are discussed.

Keywords: MHD, Mixed convective, Elastic-viscous incompressible, rotational, heat transfer, mass transfer, suction and injection.

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Authors: R. Behmanesh, I. Rahimi

Abstract:

recurrent neural network (RNN) is an efficient tool for modeling production control process as well as modeling services. In this paper one RNN was combined with regression model and were employed in order to be checked whether the obtained data by the model in comparison with actual data, are valid for variable process control chart. Therefore, one maintenance process in workshop of Esfahan Oil Refining Co. (EORC) was taken for illustration of models. First, the regression was made for predicting the response time of process based upon determined factors, and then the error between actual and predicted response time as output and also the same factors as input were used in RNN. Finally, according to predicted data from combined model, it is scrutinized for test values in statistical process control whether forecasting efficiency is acceptable. Meanwhile, in training process of RNN, design of experiments was set so as to optimize the RNN.

Keywords: RNN, DOE, regression, control chart.

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Authors: Tanuj Kanchan, Anadi Gupta, Kewal Krishan

Abstract:

Human skull is shown to exhibit numerous sexually dimorphic traits. Estimation of sex is a challenging task especially when a part of skull is brought for medicolegal investigation. The present research was planned to evaluate the sexing potential of the dimensions of foramen magnum in forensic identification by craniometric analysis. Length and breadth of the foramen magnum was measured using Vernier calipers and the area of foramen magnum was calculated. The length, breadth, and area of foramen magnum were found to be larger in males than females. Sexual dimorphism index was calculated to estimate the sexing potential of each variable. The study observations are suggestive of the limited utility of the craniometric analysis of foramen magnum during the examination of skull and its parts in estimation of sex.

Keywords: Forensic Anthropology, Skeletal remains, Identification, Sex estimation, Foramen magnum.

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Authors: Malika Yaici, Kamel Hariche, Tim Clarke

Abstract:

The relationship between eigenstructure (eigenvalues and eigenvectors) and latent structure (latent roots and latent vectors) is established. In control theory eigenstructure is associated with the state space description of a dynamic multi-variable system and a latent structure is associated with its matrix fraction description. Beginning with block controller and block observer state space forms and moving on to any general state space form, we develop the identities that relate eigenvectors and latent vectors in either direction. Numerical examples illustrate this result. A brief discussion of the potential of these identities in linear control system design follows. Additionally, we present a consequent result: a quick and easy method to solve the polynomial eigenvalue problem for regular matrix polynomials.

Keywords: Eigenvalues/Eigenvectors, Latent values/vectors, Matrix fraction description, State space description.

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Authors: M. Sadeghi, A.H. Jafari, S.M.P. Firoozabadi

Abstract:

Deep Brain Stimulation or DBS is the second solution for Parkinson's Disease. Its three parameters are: frequency, pulse width and voltage. They must be optimized to achieve successful treatment. Nowadays it is done clinically by neurologists and there is not certain numerical method to detect them. The aim of this research is to introduce simulation and modeling of Parkinson's Disease treatment as a computational procedure to select optimum voltage. We recorded finger tremor signals of some Parkinsonian patients under DBS treatment at constant frequency and pulse width but variable voltages; then, we adapted a new model to fit these data. The optimum voltages obtained by data fitting results were the same as neurologists- commented voltages, which means modeling can be used as an engineering method to select optimum stimulation voltages.

Keywords: modeling, Deep Brain Stimulation, Parkinson'sdisease, tremor.

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Authors: Raisa Kh. Bolotnova, Marat N. Galimzianov, Andrey S. Topolnikov, Uliana O. Agisheva, Valeria A. Buzina

Abstract:

The paper presents the results of theoretical and numerical modeling of propagation of shock waves in bubbly liquids related to nonlinear effects (realistic equation of state, chemical reactions, two-dimensional effects). On the basis on the Rankine- Hugoniot equations the problem of determination of parameters of passing and reflected shock waves in gas-liquid medium for isothermal, adiabatic and shock compression of the gas component is solved by using the wide-range equation of state of water in the analitic form. The phenomenon of shock wave intensification is investigated in the channel of variable cross section for the propagation of a shock wave in the liquid filled with bubbles containing chemically active gases. The results of modeling of the wave impulse impact on the solid wall covered with bubble layer are presented.

Keywords: bubbly liquid, cavitation, equation of state, shock wave

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Authors: Labiba Gilani, Asifullah Khan, Anwar M. Mirza

Abstract:

This paper introduces a technique of distortion estimation in image watermarking using Genetic Programming (GP). The distortion is estimated by considering the problem of obtaining a distorted watermarked signal from the original watermarked signal as a function regression problem. This function regression problem is solved using GP, where the original watermarked signal is considered as an independent variable. GP-based distortion estimation scheme is checked for Gaussian attack and Jpeg compression attack. We have used Gaussian attacks of different strengths by changing the standard deviation. JPEG compression attack is also varied by adding various distortions. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed technique is able to detect the watermark even in the case of strong distortions and is more robust against attacks.

Keywords: Blind Watermarking, Genetic Programming (GP), Fitness Function, Discrete Cosine Transform (DCT).

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Authors: Ephraim Gower, Thato Tsalaile, Monageng Kgwadi, Malcolm Hawksford.

Abstract:

This paper introduces a new point estimation algorithm, with particular focus on coherent noise suppression, given several measurements of the device under test where it is assumed that 1) the noise is first-order stationery and 2) the device under test is linear and time-invariant. The algorithm exploits the robustness of the Pitman estimator of the Cauchy location parameter through the initial scaling of the test signal by a centred Gaussian variable of predetermined variance. It is illustrated through mathematical derivations and simulation results that the proposed algorithm is more accurate and consistently robust to outliers for different tailed density functions than the conventional methods of sample mean (coherent averaging technique) and sample median search.

Keywords: Central limit theorem, Fisher-Cramer Rao, gamma function, Pitman estimator.

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Authors: Peristera A. Baziana

Abstract:

The idea of the asynchronous transmission in wavelength division multiplexing (WDM) ring MANs is studied in this paper. Especially, we present an efficient access technique to coordinate the collisions-free transmission of the variable sizes of IP traffic in WDM ring core networks. Each node is equipped with a tunable transmitter and a tunable receiver. In this way, all the wavelengths are exploited for both transmission and reception. In order to evaluate the performance measures of average throughput, queuing delay and packet dropping probability at the buffers, a simulation model that assumes symmetric access rights among the nodes is developed based on Poisson statistics. Extensive numerical results show that the proposed protocol achieves apart from high bandwidth exploitation for a wide range of offered load, fairness of queuing delay and dropping events among the different packets size categories.

Keywords: Asynchronous transmission, collision avoidance, wavelength division multiplexing.

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Authors: Wei-Lun Hsu, Mon-Jyh Lin, Jyh-Ping Hsu

Abstract:

The dissolution of spherical particles in liquids is analyzed dynamically. Here, we consider the case the dissolution of solute yields a solute-free solid phase in the outer portion of a particle. As dissolution proceeds, the interface between the undissolved solid phase and the solute-free solid phase moves towards the center of the particle. We assume that there exist two resistances for the diffusion of solute molecules: the resistance due to the solute-free portion of the particle and that due to a surface layer near solid-liquid interface. In general, the equation governing the dynamic behavior of dissolution needs to be solved numerically. However, analytical expressions for the temporal variation of the size of the undissoved portion of a particle and the variation of dissolution time can be obtained in some special cases. The present analysis takes the effect of variable bulk solute concentration on dissolution into account.

Keywords: dissolution of particles, surface layer, shrinking core model, dissolution time.

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Authors: Zanariah Abdul Majid, Mohamed Suleiman

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to investigate the performance of the developed two point block method designed for two processors for solving directly non stiff large systems of higher order ordinary differential equations (ODEs). The method calculates the numerical solution at two points simultaneously and produces two new equally spaced solution values within a block and it is possible to assign the computational tasks at each time step to a single processor. The algorithm of the method was developed in C language and the parallel computation was done on a parallel shared memory environment. Numerical results are given to compare the efficiency of the developed method to the sequential timing. For large problems, the parallel implementation produced 1.95 speed-up and 98% efficiency for the two processors.

Keywords: Numerical methods, parallel method, block method, higher order ODEs.

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Authors: X. Mamaqi, J.Miguel, P. Olave

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to provide an empirical evidence about the effects that the management of continuous training have on employability (or employment stability) in the Spanish labour market. With this purpose a binary logit model with interaction effect is been used. The dependent variable includes two situations of the active workers: continuous and discontinuous employability. To distinguish between them an Employability Index Stability (ESI) was calculated taking into account two factors: time worked and job security. Various aspects of the continuous training and personal workers data are used as independent variables. The data obtained from a survey of a sample of 918 employed have revealed a relationship between the likelihood of continuous employability and continuous training received. The empirical results support the positive and significant relationship between various aspects of the training provided by firms and employability likelihood of the workers, postulate alike from a theoretical point of view.

Keywords: training management, employability/employmentstability, binary logit model, interaction effect, Spanish marketlabour.

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Authors: Perapong Vichitkraivin, Orachat Chitsobhuk

Abstract:

In this paper, an improvement of PDLZW implementation with a new dictionary updating technique is proposed. A unique dictionary is partitioned into hierarchical variable word-width dictionaries. This allows us to search through dictionaries in parallel. Moreover, the barrel shifter is adopted for loading a new input string into the shift register in order to achieve a faster speed. However, the original PDLZW uses a simple FIFO update strategy, which is not efficient. Therefore, a new window based updating technique is implemented to better classify the difference in how often each particular address in the window is referred. The freezing policy is applied to the address most often referred, which would not be updated until all the other addresses in the window have the same priority. This guarantees that the more often referred addresses would not be updated until their time comes. This updating policy leads to an improvement on the compression efficiency of the proposed algorithm while still keep the architecture low complexity and easy to implement.

Keywords: lossless data compression, LZW algorithm, PDLZW algorithm, WSC and dictionary update.

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Authors: M. M. Islam, Rajib K. Saha, Abdullah A. Amin, M. Z. Haq

Abstract:

The autonomous mobile robot was designed and implemented which was capable of navigating in the industrial environments and did a job of picking objects from variable height and delivering it to another location following a predefined trajectory. In developing country like Bangladesh industrial robotics is not very prevalent yet, due to the high installation cost. The objective of this project was to develop an autonomous mobile robot for industrial application using the available resources in the local market at lower manufacturing cost. The mechanical system of the robot was comprised of locomotion, gripping and elevation system. Grippers were designed to grip objects of a predefined shape. Cartesian elevation system was designed for vertical movement of the gripper. PIC18F452 microcontroller was the brain of the control system. The prototype autonomous robot was fabricated for relatively lower load than the industry and the performance was tested in a virtual industrial environment created within the laboratory to realize the effectiveness.

Keywords: Industrial application, autonomous mobile robot, appropriate technology.

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Authors: V. J. Pillewan, D. N. Raut, K. N. Patil, D. K. Shinde

Abstract:

Forging, milling, turning, grinding and shaping etc. are the various industrial manufacturing processes which generate the metal waste. Grinding is extensively used in the finishing operation. The waste generated contains significant impurities apart from the metal particles. Due to these significant impurities, it becomes difficult to process and gets usually dumped in the landfills which create environmental problems. Therefore, it becomes essential to reuse metal waste to create value added products. Powder injection molding process is used for producing the porous metal matrix framework. This paper discusses the presented design of the porous framework to be used for the liquid filter application. Different parameters are optimized to obtain the better strength framework with variable porosity. Carbon nanotubes are used as reinforcing materials to enhance the strength of the metal matrix framework.

Keywords: Grinding waste, powder injection molding, carbon nanotubes, metal matrix composites.

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Authors: Ksenija Dumičić, Anita Čeh Časni, Irena Palić

Abstract:

This paper examines economic and Information and Communication Technology (ICT) development influence on recently increasing Internet purchases by individuals for European Union member states. After a growing trend for Internet purchases in EU27 was noticed, all possible regression analysis was applied using nine independent variables in 2011. Finally, two linear regression models were studied in detail. Conducted simple linear regression analysis confirmed the research hypothesis that the Internet purchases in analyzed EU countries is positively correlated with statistically significant variable Gross Domestic Product per capita (GDPpc). Also, analyzed multiple linear regression model with four regressors, showing ICT development level, indicates that ICT development is crucial for explaining the Internet purchases by individuals, confirming the research hypothesis.

Keywords: European Union, Internet purchases, multiple linear regression model, outlier

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Authors: Salvatore Marra, Francesco C. Morabito

Abstract:

In this paper we present an efficient approach for the prediction of two sunspot-related time series, namely the Yearly Sunspot Number and the IR5 Index, that are commonly used for monitoring solar activity. The method is based on exploiting partially recurrent Elman networks and it can be divided into three main steps: the first one consists in a “de-rectification" of the time series under study in order to obtain a new time series whose appearance, similar to a sum of sinusoids, can be modelled by our neural networks much better than the original dataset. After that, we normalize the derectified data so that they have zero mean and unity standard deviation and, finally, train an Elman network with only one input, a recurrent hidden layer and one output using a back-propagation algorithm with variable learning rate and momentum. The achieved results have shown the efficiency of this approach that, although very simple, can perform better than most of the existing solar activity forecasting methods.

Keywords: Elman neural networks, sunspot, solar activity, time series prediction.

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