Search results for: potential model
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 9216

Search results for: potential model

8796 Analysis of Model in Pregnant and Non-Pregnant Dengue Patients

Authors: R. Kongnuy, P. Pongsumpun

Abstract:

We used mathematical model to study the transmission of dengue disease. The model is developed in which the human population is separated into two populations, pregnant and non-pregnant humans. The dynamical analysis method is used for analyzing this modified model. Two equilibrium states are found and the conditions for stability of theses two equilibrium states are established. Numerical results are shown for each equilibrium state. The basic reproduction numbers are found and they are compared by using numerical simulations.

Keywords: Basic reproductive number, dengue disease, equilibrium states, pregnancy.

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8795 Cement Mortar Lining as a Potential Source of Water Contamination

Authors: M. Zielina, W. Dabrowski, E. Radziszewska-Zielina

Abstract:

Several different cements have been tested to evaluate their potential to leach calcium, chromium and aluminum ions in soft water environment. The research allows comparing some different cements in order to the potential risk of water contamination. This can be done only in the same environment. To reach the results in reasonable short time intervals and to make heavy metals measurements with high accuracy, demineralized water was used. In this case the conditions of experiments are far away from the water supply practice, but short time experiments and measurably high concentrations of elements in the water solution are an important advantage. Moreover leaching mechanisms can be recognized, our experiments reported here refer to this kind of cements evaluation.

Keywords: Concrete corrosion, hydrogen sulfide, odors, reinforced concrete sewers, sewerage.

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8794 Effect of Orientation of the Wall Window on Energy Saving under Clear Sky Conditions

Authors: Madhu Sudan, G. N. Tiwari

Abstract:

In this paper, an attempt has been made to analyze the effect of wall window orientation on Daylight Illuminance Ratio (DIR) and energy saving in a building known as “SODHA BERS COMPLEX (SBC)” at Varanasi, UP, India. The building has been designed incorporating all passive concepts for thermal comfort as well daylighting concepts to maximize the use of natural daylighting for the occupants in the day to day activities. The annual average DIR and the energy saving has been estimated by using the DIR model for wall window with different orientations under clear sky condition. It has been found that for south oriented window the energy saving per square meter is more compared to the other orientations due to the higher level of solar insolation for the south window in northern hemisphere whereas energy saving potential is minimum for north oriented wall window. The energy saving potential was 26%, 81% and 51% higher for east, south and west oriented window in comparison to north oriented window. The average annual DIR has same trends of variation as the annual energy saving and it is maximum for south oriented window and minimum for north oriented window.

Keywords: Clear sky, Daylight Illuminance Ratio, Energy saving, Wall window.

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8793 Dominant Flow Features of Two Inclined Impinging Jets Confined in Large Enclosure

Authors: T. Chammem, H. Mhiri, O. Vauquelin

Abstract:

The present study was provided to examine the vortical structures generated by two inclined impinging jets with experimental and numerical investigations. The jets are issuing with a pitch angle α=40° into a confined quiescent fluid. The experimental investigation on flow patterns was visualized by using olive particles injected into the jets illuminated by Nd:Yag laser light to reveal the finer details of the confined jets interaction. It was observed that two counter-rotating vortex pairs (CVPs) were generated in the near region. A numerical investigation was also performed. First, the numerical results were validates against the experimental results and then the numerical model was used to study the effect of section ratio on the evolution of the CVPs. Our results show promising agreement with experimental data, and indicate that our model has the potential to produce useful and accurate data regarding the evolution of CVPs.

Keywords: Inclined impinging jets, counter-rotating vortex pair, CFD, experimental investigation, section ratio.

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8792 ANN Based Model Development for Material Removal Rate in Dry Turning in Indian Context

Authors: Mangesh R. Phate, V. H. Tatwawadi

Abstract:

This paper is intended to develop an artificial neural network (ANN) based model of material removal rate (MRR) in the turning of ferrous and nonferrous material in a Indian small-scale industry. MRR of the formulated model was proved with the testing data and artificial neural network (ANN) model was developed for the analysis and prediction of the relationship between inputs and output parameters during the turning of ferrous and nonferrous materials. The input parameters of this model are operator, work-piece, cutting process, cutting tool, machine and the environment.

The ANN model consists of a three layered feedforward back propagation neural network. The network is trained with pairs of independent/dependent datasets generated when machining ferrous and nonferrous material. A very good performance of the neural network, in terms of contract with experimental data, was achieved. The model may be used for the testing and forecast of the complex relationship between dependent and the independent parameters in turning operations.

Keywords: Field data based model, Artificial neural network, Simulation, Convectional Turning, Material removal rate.

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8791 Parameters Extraction for Pseudomorphic HEMTs Using Genetic Algorithms

Authors: Mazhar B. Tayel, Amr H. Yassin

Abstract:

A proposed small-signal model parameters for a pseudomorphic high electron mobility transistor (PHEMT) is presented. Both extrinsic and intrinsic circuit elements of a smallsignal model are determined using genetic algorithm (GA) as a stochastic global search and optimization tool. The parameters extraction of the small-signal model is performed on 200-μm gate width AlGaAs/InGaAs PHEMT. The equivalent circuit elements for a proposed 18 elements model are determined directly from the measured S- parameters. The GA is used to extract the parameters of the proposed small-signal model from 0.5 up to 18 GHz.

Keywords: PHEMT, Genetic Algorithms, small signal modeling, optimization.

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8790 Footbridge Response on Single Pedestrian Induced Vibration Analysis

Authors: J. Kala, V. Salajka, P. Hradil

Abstract:

Many footbridges have natural frequencies that coincide with the dominant frequencies of the pedestrian-induced load and therefore they have a potential to suffer excessive vibrations under dynamic loads induced by pedestrians. Some of the design standards introduce load models for pedestrian loads applicable for simple structures. Load modeling for more complex structures, on the other hand, is most often left to the designer. The main focus of this paper is on the human induced forces transmitted to a footbridge and on the ways these loads can be modeled to be used in the dynamic design of footbridges. Also design criteria and load models proposed by widely used standards were introduced and a comparison was made. The dynamic analysis of the suspension bridge in Kolin in the Czech Republic was performed on detailed FEM model using the ANSYS program system. An attempt to model the load imposed by a single person and a crowd of pedestrians resulted in displacements and accelerations that are compared with serviceability criteria.

Keywords: Footbridge, Serviceability, Pedestrian action, Numerical analysis.

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8789 Finite Element Analysis of Flush End Plate Moment Connections under Cyclic Loading

Authors: Vahid Zeinoddini-Meimand, Mehdi Ghassemieh, Jalal Kiani

Abstract:

This paper explains the results of an investigation on the analysis of flush end plate steel connections by means of finite element method. Flush end plates are a highly indeterminate type of connection, which have a number of parameters that affect their behavior. Because of this, experimental investigations are complicated and very costly. Today, the finite element method provides an ideal method for analyzing complicated structures. Finite element models of these types of connections under monotonic loading have previously been investigated. A numerical model, which can predict the cyclic behavior of these connections, is of critical importance, as dynamic experiments are more costly. This paper summarizes a study to develop a three-dimensional finite element model that can accurately capture the cyclic behavior of flush end plate connections. Comparisons between FEM results and experimental results obtained from full-scale tests have been carried out, which confirms the accuracy of the finite element model. Consequently, design equations for this connection have been investigated and it is shown that these predictions are not precise in all cases. The effect of end plate thickness and bolt diameter on the overall behavior of this connection is discussed. This research demonstrates that using the appropriate configuration, this connection has the potential to form a plastic hinge in the beam--desirable in seismic behavior.

Keywords: Flush end plate connection, moment-rotation diagram, finite element method, moment frame, cyclic loading.

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8788 Proteins Length and their Phenotypic Potential

Authors: Tom Snir, Eitan Rubin

Abstract:

Mendelian Disease Genes represent a collection of single points of failure for the various systems they constitute. Such genes have been shown, on average, to encode longer proteins than 'non-disease' proteins. Existing models suggest that this results from the increased likeli-hood of longer genes undergoing mutations. Here, we show that in saturated mutagenesis experiments performed on model organisms, where the likelihood of each gene mutating is one, a similar relationship between length and the probability of a gene being lethal was observed. We thus suggest an extended model demonstrating that the likelihood of a mutated gene to produce a severe phenotype is length-dependent. Using the occurrence of conserved domains, we bring evidence that this dependency results from a correlation between protein length and the number of functions it performs. We propose that protein length thus serves as a proxy for protein cardinality in different networks required for the organism's survival and well-being. We use this example to argue that the collection of Mendelian Disease Genes can, and should, be used to study the rules governing systems vulnerability in living organisms.

Keywords: Systems Biology, Protein Length

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8787 The Relationship between Business-model Innovation and Firm Value: A Dynamic Perspective

Authors: Yung C. Ho, Hui C. Fang, Ming J. Hsieh

Abstract:

When consistently innovative business-models can give companies a competitive advantage, longitudinal empirical research, which can reflect dynamic business-model changes, has yet to prove a definitive connection. This study consequently employs a dynamic perspective in conjunction with innovation theory to examine the relationship between the types of business-model innovation and firm value. This study tries to examine various types of business-model innovation in high-end and low-end technology industries such as HTC and the 7-Eleven chain stores with research periods of 14 years and 32 years, respectively. The empirical results suggest that adopting radical business-model innovation in addition to expanding new target markets can successfully lead to a competitive advantage. Sustained advanced technological competences and service/product innovation are the key successful factors in high-end and low-end technology industry business-models respectively. In sum up, the business-model innovation can yield a higher market value and financial value in high-end technology industries than low-end ones.

Keywords: Business-model, Dynamic Perspective, Firm Value, Innovation

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8786 Manual Testing of Web Software Systems Supported by Direct Guidance of the Tester Based On Design Model

Authors: Karel Frajtak, Miroslav Bures, Ivan Jelinek

Abstract:

Software testing is important stage of software development cycle. Current testing process involves tester and electronic documents with test case scenarios. In this paper we focus on new approach to testing process using automated test case generation and tester guidance through the system based on the model of the system. Test case generation and model-based testing is not possible without proper system model. We aim on providing better feedback from the testing process thus eliminating the unnecessary paper work.

Keywords: Model based testing, test automation, test generating, tester support.

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8785 Enabling Remote Desktop in a Virtualized Environment for Cloud Services

Authors: Shuen-Tai Wang, Yu-Ching Lin, Hsi-Ya Chang

Abstract:

Cloud computing is the innovative and leading information technology model for enabling convenient, on-demand network access to a shared pool of configurable computing resources that can be rapidly provisioned and released with minimal management effort. This paper presents our development on enabling an individual user's desktop in a virtualized environment, which is stored on a remote virtual machine rather than locally. We present the initial work on the integration of virtual desktop and application sharing with virtualization technology. Given the development of remote desktop virtualization, this proposed effort has the potential to positively provide an efficient, resilience and elastic environment for online cloud service. Users no longer need to burden the cost of software licenses and platform maintenances. Moreover, this development also helps boost user productivity by promoting a flexible model that lets users access their desktop environments from virtually anywhere.

Keywords: Cloud Computing, Virtualization, Virtual Desktop, Elastic Environment.

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8784 An Extension of Multi-Layer Perceptron Based on Layer-Topology

Authors: Jānis Zuters

Abstract:

There are a lot of extensions made to the classic model of multi-layer perceptron (MLP). A notable amount of them has been designed to hasten the learning process without considering the quality of generalization. The paper proposes a new MLP extension based on exploiting topology of the input layer of the network. Experimental results show the extended model to improve upon generalization capability in certain cases. The new model requires additional computational resources to compare to the classic model, nevertheless the loss in efficiency isn-t regarded to be significant.

Keywords: Learning algorithm, multi-layer perceptron, topology.

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8783 Geometric and Material Nonlinear Analysis of Reinforced Concrete Structure Considering Soil-Structure Interaction

Authors: Mohamed M. El-Gendy, Ibrahim A. El-Arabi, Rafik W. Abdel-Missih, Omar A. Kandil

Abstract:

In the present research, a finite element model is presented to study the geometrical and material nonlinear behavior of reinforced concrete plane frames considering soil-structure interaction. The nonlinear behaviors of concrete and reinforcing steel are considered both in compression and tension up to failure. The model takes account also for the number, diameter, and distribution of rebar along every cross section. Soil behavior is taken into consideration using four different models; namely: linear-, nonlinear Winkler's model, and linear-, nonlinear continuum model. A computer program (NARC) is specially developed in order to perform the analysis. The results achieved by the present model show good agreement with both theoretical and experimental published literature. The nonlinear behavior of a rectangular frame resting on soft soil up to failure using the proposed model is introduced for demonstration.

Keywords: Nonlinear analysis, Geometric nonlinearity, Material nonlinearity, Reinforced concrete, Finite element method, Soilstructure interaction, Winkler's soil model, Continuum soil model

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8782 A Methodological Test to Study the Concrete Workability with the Fractal Model

Authors: F. Achouri, K. Chouicha

Abstract:

The main parameters affecting the workability are the water content, particle size, and the total surface of the grains, as long as the mixing water begins by wetting the surface of the grains and then fills the voids between the grains to form entrapped water, the quantity of water remaining is called free water. The aim of this study is to undertake a fractal approach through the relationship between the concrete formulation parameters and workability. To develop this approach a series of concrete taken from the literature was investigated by varying formulation parameters such as G/S, the quantity of cement C and the quantity of water W. We also call another model as the model of water layer thickness and model of paste layer thickness to judge their relevance, hence the following results: the relevance of the water layer thickness model is considered as a relevant when there is a variation in the water quantity. The model of the paste layer thickness is only applicable if we considered that the paste is made with the grain value Dmax = 2.85: value from which we see a stability of the model.

Keywords: Concrete, fractal method, paste layer thickness, water layer thickness, workability.

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8781 Belt Conveyor Dynamics in Transient Operation for Speed Control

Authors: D. He, Y. Pang, G. Lodewijks

Abstract:

Belt conveyors play an important role in continuous dry bulk material transport, especially at the mining industry. Speed control is expected to reduce the energy consumption of belt conveyors. Transient operation is the operation of increasing or decreasing conveyor speed for speed control. According to literature review, current research rarely takes the conveyor dynamics in transient operation into account. However, in belt conveyor speed control, the conveyor dynamic behaviors are significantly important since the poor dynamics might result in risks. In this paper, the potential risks in transient operation will be analyzed. An existing finite element model will be applied to build a conveyor model, and simulations will be carried out to analyze the conveyor dynamics. In order to realize the soft speed regulation, Harrison’s sinusoid acceleration profile will be applied, and Lodewijks estimator will be built to approximate the required acceleration time. A long inclined belt conveyor will be studied with two major simulations. The conveyor dynamics will be given.

Keywords: Belt conveyor, speed control, transient operation, dynamics

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8780 Development of a Catchment Water Quality Model for Continuous Simulations of Pollutants Build-up and Wash-off

Authors: Iqbal Hossain, Dr. Monzur Imteaz, Dr. Shirley Gato-Trinidad, Prof. Abdallah Shanableh

Abstract:

Estimation of runoff water quality parameters is required to determine appropriate water quality management options. Various models are used to estimate runoff water quality parameters. However, most models provide event-based estimates of water quality parameters for specific sites. The work presented in this paper describes the development of a model that continuously simulates the accumulation and wash-off of water quality pollutants in a catchment. The model allows estimation of pollutants build-up during dry periods and pollutants wash-off during storm events. The model was developed by integrating two individual models; rainfall-runoff model, and catchment water quality model. The rainfall-runoff model is based on the time-area runoff estimation method. The model allows users to estimate the time of concentration using a range of established methods. The model also allows estimation of the continuing runoff losses using any of the available estimation methods (i.e., constant, linearly varying or exponentially varying). Pollutants build-up in a catchment was represented by one of three pre-defined functions; power, exponential, or saturation. Similarly, pollutants wash-off was represented by one of three different functions; power, rating-curve, or exponential. The developed runoff water quality model was set-up to simulate the build-up and wash-off of total suspended solids (TSS), total phosphorus (TP) and total nitrogen (TN). The application of the model was demonstrated using available runoff and TSS field data from road and roof surfaces in the Gold Coast, Australia. The model provided excellent representation of the field data demonstrating the simplicity yet effectiveness of the proposed model.

Keywords: Catchment, continuous pollutants build-up, pollutants wash-off, runoff, runoff water quality model.

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8779 Artificial Generation of Visual Evoked Potential to Enhance Visual Ability

Authors: A. Vani, M. N. Mamatha

Abstract:

Visual signal processing in human beings occurs in the occipital lobe of the brain. The signals that are generated in the brain are universal for all the human beings and they are called Visual Evoked Potential (VEP). Generally, the visually impaired people lose sight because of severe damage to only the eyes natural photo sensors, but the occipital lobe will still be functioning. In this paper, a technique of artificially generating VEP is proposed to enhance the visual ability of the subject. The system uses the electrical photoreceptors to capture image, process the image, to detect and recognize the subject or object. This voltage is further processed and can transmit wirelessly to a BIOMEMS implanted into occipital lobe of the patient’s brain. The proposed BIOMEMS consists of array of electrodes that generate the neuron potential which is similar to VEP of normal people. Thus, the neurons get the visual data from the BioMEMS which helps in generating partial vision or sight for the visually challenged patient. 

Keywords: Visual evoked potential, OpenViBe, BioMEMS, Neuro prosthesis.

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8778 Artificial Neural Network Model for a Low Cost Failure Sensor: Performance Assessment in Pipeline Distribution

Authors: Asar Khan, Peter D. Widdop, Andrew J. Day, Aliaster S. Wood, Steve, R. Mounce, John Machell

Abstract:

This paper describes an automated event detection and location system for water distribution pipelines which is based upon low-cost sensor technology and signature analysis by an Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The development of a low cost failure sensor which measures the opacity or cloudiness of the local water flow has been designed, developed and validated, and an ANN based system is then described which uses time series data produced by sensors to construct an empirical model for time series prediction and classification of events. These two components have been installed, tested and verified in an experimental site in a UK water distribution system. Verification of the system has been achieved from a series of simulated burst trials which have provided real data sets. It is concluded that the system has potential in water distribution network management.

Keywords: Detection, leakage, neural networks, sensors, water distribution networks

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8777 Approaches to Determining Optimal Asset Structure for a Commercial Bank

Authors: Svetlana Saksonova

Abstract:

Every commercial bank optimises its asset portfolio depending on the profitability of assets and chosen or imposed constraints. This paper proposes and applies a stylized model for optimising banks' asset and liability structure, reflecting profitability of different asset categories and their risks as well as costs associated with different liability categories and reserve requirements. The level of detail for asset and liability categories is chosen to create a suitably parsimonious model and to include the most important categories in the model. It is shown that the most appropriate optimisation criterion for the model is the maximisation of the ratio of net interest income to assets. The maximisation of this ratio is subject to several constraints. Some are accounting identities or dictated by legislative requirements; others vary depending on the market objectives for a particular bank. The model predicts variable amount of assets allocated to loan provision.

Keywords: asset structure, commercial bank, model, optimisation

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8776 Many-Sided Self Risk Analysis Model for Information Asset to Secure Stability of the Information and Communication Service

Authors: Jin-Tae Lee, Jung-Hoon Suh, Sang-Soo Jang, Jae-Il Lee

Abstract:

Information and communication service providers (ICSP) that are significant in size and provide Internet-based services take administrative, technical, and physical protection measures via the information security check service (ISCS). These protection measures are the minimum action necessary to secure the stability and continuity of the information and communication services (ICS) that they provide. Thus, information assets are essential to providing ICS, and deciding the relative importance of target assets for protection is a critical procedure. The risk analysis model designed to decide the relative importance of information assets, which is described in this study, evaluates information assets from many angles, in order to choose which ones should be given priority when it comes to protection. Many-sided risk analysis (MSRS) grades the importance of information assets, based on evaluation of major security check items, evaluation of the dependency on the information and communication facility (ICF) and influence on potential incidents, and evaluation of major items according to their service classification, in order to identify the ISCS target. MSRS could be an efficient risk analysis model to help ICSPs to identify their core information assets and take information protection measures first, so that stability of the ICS can be ensured.

Keywords: Information Asset, Information CommunicationFacility, Evaluation, ISCS (Information Security Check Service), Evaluation, Grade.

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8775 Energy Saving Potential with Improved Concrete in Ice Rink Floor Designs

Authors: Ehsan B. Haghighi, Pavel Makhnatch, Jörgen Rogstam

Abstract:

The ice rink floor is the largest heat exchanger in an ice rink. The important part of the floor consists of concrete, and the thermophysical properties of this concrete have strong influence on the energy usage of the ice rink. The thermal conductivity of concrete can be increased by using iron ore as ballast. In this study, the Transient Plane Source (TPS) method showed an increase up to 58.2% of thermal conductivity comparing the improved concrete to standard concrete. Moreover, two alternative ice rink floor designs are suggested to incorporate the improved concrete. A 2D simulation was developed to investigate the temperature distribution in the conventional and the suggested designs. The results show that the suggested designs reduce the temperature difference between the ice surface and the brine by 1-4˚C, when comparing with convectional designs at equal heat flux. This primarily leads to an increased coefficient of performance (COP) in the primary refrigeration cycle and secondly to a decrease in the secondary refrigerant pumping power. The suggested designs have great potential to reduce the energy usage of ice rinks. Depending on the load scenario in the ice rink, the saving potential lies in the range of 3-10% of the refrigeration system energy usage. This calculation is based on steady state conditions and the potential with improved dynamic behavior is expected to increase the potential saving.

Keywords: Concrete, iron ore, ice rink, energy saving.

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8774 Local Linear Model Tree (LOLIMOT) Reconfigurable Parallel Hardware

Authors: A. Pedram, M. R. Jamali, T. Pedram, S. M. Fakhraie, C. Lucas

Abstract:

Local Linear Neuro-Fuzzy Models (LLNFM) like other neuro- fuzzy systems are adaptive networks and provide robust learning capabilities and are widely utilized in various applications such as pattern recognition, system identification, image processing and prediction. Local linear model tree (LOLIMOT) is a type of Takagi-Sugeno-Kang neuro fuzzy algorithm which has proven its efficiency compared with other neuro fuzzy networks in learning the nonlinear systems and pattern recognition. In this paper, a dedicated reconfigurable and parallel processing hardware for LOLIMOT algorithm and its applications are presented. This hardware realizes on-chip learning which gives it the capability to work as a standalone device in a system. The synthesis results on FPGA platforms show its potential to improve the speed at least 250 of times faster than software implemented algorithms.

Keywords: LOLIMOT, hardware, neurofuzzy systems, reconfigurable, parallel.

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8773 Dynamic Analyses for Passenger Volume of Domestic Airline and High Speed Rail

Authors: Shih-Ching Lo

Abstract:

Discrete choice model is the most used methodology for studying traveler-s mode choice and demand. However, to calibrate the discrete choice model needs to have plenty of questionnaire survey. In this study, an aggregative model is proposed. The historical data of passenger volumes for high speed rail and domestic civil aviation are employed to calibrate and validate the model. In this study, different models are compared so as to propose the best one. From the results, systematic equations forecast better than single equation do. Models with the external variable, which is oil price, are better than models based on closed system assumption.

Keywords: forecasting, passenger volume, dynamic competition model, external variable, oil price

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8772 An Erosion-based Modeling of Abrasive Waterjet Turning

Authors: I. Zohourkari, M. Zohoor

Abstract:

In this paper, an erosion-based model for abrasive waterjet (AWJ) turning process is presented. By using modified Hashish erosion model, the volume of material removed by impacting of abrasive particles to surface of the rotating cylindrical specimen is estimated and radius reduction at each rotation is calculated. Different to previous works, the proposed model considers the continuous change in local impact angle due to change in workpiece diameter, axial traverse rate of the jet, the abrasive particle roundness and density. The accuracy of the proposed model is examined by experimental tests under various traverse rates. The final diameters estimated by the proposed model are in good accordance with experiments.

Keywords: Abrasive, Erosion, impact, Particle, Waterjet, Turning.

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8771 A Dual Model for Efficiency Evaluation Considering Time Lag Effect

Authors: Yan Shuang Zhang, Taehan Lee, Byung Ho Jeong

Abstract:

A DEA model can generally evaluate the performance using multiple inputs and outputs for the same period. However, it is hard to avoid the production lead time phenomenon some times, such as long-term project or marketing activity. A couple of models have been suggested to capture this time lag issue in the context of DEA. This paper develops a dual-MPO model to deal with time lag effect in evaluating efficiency. A numerical example is also given to show that the proposed model can be used to get efficiency and reference set of inefficient DMUs and to obtain projected target value of input attributes for inefficient DMUs to be efficient.

Keywords: DEA, efficiency, time lag, dual problem.

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8770 A Simulation Model for Bid Price Decision Making

Authors: R. Sammoura

Abstract:

In Lebanon, public construction projects are awarded to the contractor submitting the lowest bid price based on a competitive bidding process. The contractor has to make a strategic decision in choosing the appropriate bid price that will offer a satisfactory profit with a greater probability to win. A simulation model for bid price decision making based on the lowest bid price evaluation is developed. The model, built using Crystal Ball decisionengineering software, considers two main factors affecting the bidding process: the number of qualified bidders and the size of the project. The validity of the model is tested on twelve separate projects. The study also shows how to use the model to conduct risk analysis and help any specific contractor to decide on his bid price with associated certainty level in a scientific method.

Keywords: Bid price, Competition, Decision making, Simulation.

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8769 Dynamical Transmission Model of Chikungunya in Thailand

Authors: P. Pongsumpun

Abstract:

One of the important tropical diseases is Chikunkunya. This disease is transmitted between the human by the insect-borne virus, of the genus Alphavirus. It occurs in Africa, Asia and the Indian subcontinent. In Thailand, the incidences due to this disease are increasing every year. In this study, the transmission of this disease is studied through dynamical model analysis.

Keywords: Chikunkunya, dynamical model, Endemic region, Routh-Hurwitz criteria.

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8768 Students’ Willingness to Accept Virtual Lecturing Systems: An Empirical Study by Extending the UTAUT Model

Authors: Ahmed Shuhaiber

Abstract:

The explosion of the World Wide Web and the electronic trend of university teaching have transformed the learning style to become more learner-centered, which has popularized the digital delivery of mediated lectures as an alternative or an adjunct to traditional lectures. Despite its potential and popularity, virtual lectures have not been adopted yet in Jordanian universities. This research aimed to fill this gap by studying the factors that influence students’ willingness to accept virtual lectures in one Jordanian University. A quantitative approach was followed, by obtaining 216 survey responses and statistically applying the UTAUT model with some modifications. Results revealed that performance expectancy, effort expectancy, social influences, and self-efficacy could significantly influence students’ attitudes towards virtual lectures. Additionally, Facilitating conditions and attitudes towards virtual lectures were found with significant influence on students’ intention to take virtual lectures. Research implications and future work were specified afterwards.

Keywords: E-Learning, Student willingness, UTAUT, Virtual Lectures, Web-based learning systems.

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8767 Reference Model for the Implementation of an E-Commerce Solution in Peruvian SMEs in the Retail Sector

Authors: Julio Kauss, Miguel Cadillo, David Mauricio

Abstract:

E-commerce is a business model that allows companies to optimize the processes of buying, selling, transferring goods and exchanging services through computer networks or the Internet. In Peru, the electronic commerce is used infrequently. This situation is due, in part to the fact that there is no model that allows companies to implement an e-commerce solution, which means that most SMEs do not have adequate knowledge to adapt to electronic commerce. In this work, a reference model is proposed for the implementation of an e-commerce solution in Peruvian SMEs in the retail sector. It consists of five phases: Business Analysis, Business Modeling, Implementation, Post Implementation and Results. The present model was validated in a SME of the Peruvian retail sector through the implementation of an electronic commerce platform, through which the company increased its sales through the delivery channel by 10% in the first month of deployment. This result showed that the model is easy to implement, is economical and agile. In addition, it allowed the company to increase its business offer, adapt to e-commerce and improve customer loyalty.

Keywords: E-commerce, retail, SMEs, reference model.

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