Search results for: infinite variance

Authors: M. E. Shimpi, G. M. Deheri

Abstract:

This article aims to investigate the performance of a magnetic fluid based squeeze film between rotating transversely rough curved porous annular plates incorporating the effect of elastic deformation. The associated stochastically averaged Reynolds type equation is solved to obtain the pressure distribution leading to the calculation of the load carrying capacity. The results suggest that the transverse roughness of the bearing surfaces affects the performance adversely although the bearing systems register a relatively improved performance due to the magnetization. The deformation causes reduced the load carrying capacity while the curvature parameters tend to nominally increase the load carrying capacity. Besides, the adverse effect of porosity, deformation and standard deviation can be minimized to some extent by the positive effect of the magnetization and the curvature parameters in the case of negatively skewed roughness by suitably choosing the rotational inertia and the aspect ratio, which becomes significant when negative variance occurs.

Keywords: Annular plates curved rough surface, deformation, load carrying capacity, rotational inertia, magnetic fluid, squeeze film.

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Authors: Nitai Biswas, Prasenjit Kapas, Arumay Jana, Asish Paul

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Introduction: Motivation is basic drive for all kinds of action. It has direct influence on academic achievement and sports performance that builds urge to incentive values of success. In other words, it can be defined as the need for success to attain excellence. Anxiety in pre competition especially in sports formulates positive inward settings in mind to overcome the challenge. There is a tendency to perceive competitive situations as some threatening issues and to respond them with feelings of apprehension and tension. Aim: Aim of the study was to compare the achievement motivation and competition anxiety among three different classes of students. Methods and Materials: To conduct the study the researcher has taken 131 male subjects from three different classes as Extra Department, Bachelor of Physical Education-I and Master of Physical EducationII, aged 19-28 years. Achievement motivation and sports competition anxiety were measured by the questionnaire. To analyze the data mean, standard deviation for each parameter as descriptive statistics and one way analysis of variance as inferential statistics were employed. Results: From the result of the study in achievement motivation (p ≥ 0.05) and competition anxiety (p ≥ 0.05) no significant differences were found among the said three groups. Conclusion: The study concluded that all three groups had almost the same state of achievement motivation and sports competition anxiety.

Keywords: Anxiety, sports psychology, sports competition anxiety, achievement motivation, academic hierarchy.

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Authors: Marina Velikova, Hennie Daniels, Ad Feelders

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In many data mining applications, it is a priori known that the target function should satisfy certain constraints imposed by, for example, economic theory or a human-decision maker. In this paper we consider partially monotone prediction problems, where the target variable depends monotonically on some of the input variables but not on all. We propose a novel method to construct prediction models, where monotone dependences with respect to some of the input variables are preserved by virtue of construction. Our method belongs to the class of mixture models. The basic idea is to convolute monotone neural networks with weight (kernel) functions to make predictions. By using simulation and real case studies, we demonstrate the application of our method. To obtain sound assessment for the performance of our approach, we use standard neural networks with weight decay and partially monotone linear models as benchmark methods for comparison. The results show that our approach outperforms partially monotone linear models in terms of accuracy. Furthermore, the incorporation of partial monotonicity constraints not only leads to models that are in accordance with the decision maker's expertise, but also reduces considerably the model variance in comparison to standard neural networks with weight decay.

Keywords: mixture models, monotone neural networks, partially monotone models, partially monotone problems.

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Authors: Abiodun M. Aibinu, Athaur Rahman Najeeb, Momoh J. E. Salami, Amir A. Shafie

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An alternative approach to the use of Discrete Fourier Transform (DFT) for Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) reconstruction is the use of parametric modeling technique. This method is suitable for problems in which the image can be modeled by explicit known source functions with a few adjustable parameters. Despite the success reported in the use of modeling technique as an alternative MRI reconstruction technique, two important problems constitutes challenges to the applicability of this method, these are estimation of Model order and model coefficient determination. In this paper, five of the suggested method of evaluating the model order have been evaluated, these are: The Final Prediction Error (FPE), Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Residual Variance (RV), Minimum Description Length (MDL) and Hannan and Quinn (HNQ) criterion. These criteria were evaluated on MRI data sets based on the method of Transient Error Reconstruction Algorithm (TERA). The result for each criterion is compared to result obtained by the use of a fixed order technique and three measures of similarity were evaluated. Result obtained shows that the use of MDL gives the highest measure of similarity to that use by a fixed order technique.

Keywords: Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA), MagneticResonance Imaging (MRI), Parametric modeling, Transient Error.

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Authors: Ben-Edigbe J, RahmanR

Abstract:

Since primary school trips usually start from home, attention by many scholars have been focused on the home end for data gathering. Thereafter category analysis has often been relied upon when predicting school travel demands. In this paper, school end was relied on for data gathering and multivariate regression for future travel demand prediction. 9859 pupils were surveyed by way of questionnaires at 21 primary schools. The town was divided into 5 zones. The study was carried out in Skudai Town, Malaysia. Based on the hypothesis that the number of primary school trip ends are expected to be the same because school trips are fixed, the choice of trip end would have inconsequential effect on the outcome. The study compared empirical data for home and school trip end productions and attractions. Variance from both data results was insignificant, although some claims from home based family survey were found to be grossly exaggerated. Data from the school trip ends was relied on for travel demand prediction because of its completeness. Accessibility, trip attraction and trip production were then related to school trip rates under daylight and dry weather conditions. The paper concluded that, accessibility is an important parameter when predicting demand for future school trip rates.

Keywords: Trip generation, regression analysis, multiple linearregressions

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Authors: A. P. Singh

Abstract:

The results reported in this paper are the part of an extensive laboratory investigation undertaken to study the effects of fibre parameters on the permeability and strength characteristics of steel fibre reinforced concrete (SFRC). The effect of varying fibre content and curing age on the water permeability, compressive and split tensile strengths of SFRC was investigated using straight steel fibres having an aspect ratio of 65. Samples containing three different weight fractions of 1.0%, 2.0% and 4.0% were cast and tested for permeability and strength after 7, 14, 28 and 60 days of curing. Plain concrete samples were also cast and tested for reference purposes.

Permeability was observed to decrease significantly with the addition of steel fibres and continued to decrease with increasing fibre content and increasing curing age. An exponential relationship was observed between permeability and compressive and split tensile strengths for SFRC as well as PCC. To evaluate the effect of fibre content on the permeability and strength characteristics, the Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) statistical method was used. An a level (probability of error) of 0.05 was used for ANOVA test. Regression analysis was carried out to develop relationship between permeability, compressive strength and curing age.

Keywords: Permeability, grade of concrete, fibre shape, fibre content, curing age, steady state, Darcy’s law, method of penetration.

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Authors: Ehab Mourtaga, Ahmad Sharieh, Mousa Abdallah

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An automatic speech recognition system for the formal Arabic language is needed. The Quran is the most formal spoken book in Arabic, it is spoken all over the world. In this research, an automatic speech recognizer for Quranic based speakerindependent was developed and tested. The system was developed based on the tri-phone Hidden Markov Model and Maximum Likelihood Linear Regression (MLLR). The MLLR computes a set of transformations which reduces the mismatch between an initial model set and the adaptation data. It uses the regression class tree, as well as, estimates a set of linear transformations for the mean and variance parameters of a Gaussian mixture HMM system. The 30th Chapter of the Quran, with five of the most famous readers of the Quran, was used for the training and testing of the data. The chapter includes about 2000 distinct words. The advantages of using the Quranic verses as the database in this developed recognizer are the uniqueness of the words and the high level of orderliness between verses. The level of accuracy from the tested data ranged 68 to 85%.

Keywords: Hidden Markov Model (HMM), MaximumLikelihood Linear Regression (MLLR), Quran, Regression ClassTree, Speech Recognition, Speaker-independent.

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Authors: Edikan E. Akpanibah, Okwigbedi Oghen’Oro

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In this paper, we studied the optimal portfolio selection in a defined contribution (DC) pension scheme with multiple contributors under constant elasticity of variance (CEV) model and the impact of stochastic additional voluntary contribution on the investment strategies. We assume that the voluntary contributions are stochastic and also consider investments in a risk free asset and a risky asset to increase the expected returns of the contributing members. We derived a stochastic differential equation which consists of the members’ monthly contributions and the invested fund and obtained an optimized problem with the help of Hamilton Jacobi Bellman equation. Furthermore, we find an explicit solution for the optimal investment strategy with stochastic voluntary contribution using power transformation and change of variables method and the corresponding optimal fund size was obtained. We discussed the impact of the voluntary contribution on the optimal investment strategy with numerical simulations and observed that the voluntary contribution reduces the optimal investment strategy of the risky asset.

Keywords: DC pension fund, Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman, optimal investment strategies, power transformation method, stochastic, voluntary contribution.

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Authors: Ishapathik Das

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The purpose of this article is to find a method of comparing designs for ordinal regression models using quantile dispersion graphs in the presence of linear predictor misspecification. The true relationship between response variable and the corresponding control variables are usually unknown. Experimenter assumes certain form of the linear predictor of the ordinal regression models. The assumed form of the linear predictor may not be correct always. Thus, the maximum likelihood estimates (MLE) of the unknown parameters of the model may be biased due to misspecification of the linear predictor. In this article, the uncertainty in the linear predictor is represented by an unknown function. An algorithm is provided to estimate the unknown function at the design points where observations are available. The unknown function is estimated at all points in the design region using multivariate parametric kriging. The comparison of the designs are based on a scalar valued function of the mean squared error of prediction (MSEP) matrix, which incorporates both variance and bias of the prediction caused by the misspecification in the linear predictor. The designs are compared using quantile dispersion graphs approach. The graphs also visually depict the robustness of the designs on the changes in the parameter values. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the proposed methodology.

Keywords: Model misspecification, multivariate kriging, multivariate logistic link, ordinal response models, quantile dispersion graphs.

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Authors: Youngsuck Ji, Youngjoon Han, Hernsoo Hahn

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In this paper, we proposed the robust mobile object detection method for light effect in the night street image block based updating reference background model using block state analysis. Experiment image is acquired sequence color video from steady camera. When suddenly appeared artificial illumination, reference background model update this information such as street light, sign light. Generally natural illumination is change by temporal, but artificial illumination is suddenly appearance. So in this paper for exactly detect artificial illumination have 2 state process. First process is compare difference between current image and reference background by block based, it can know changed blocks. Second process is difference between current image-s edge map and reference background image-s edge map, it possible to estimate illumination at any block. This information is possible to exactly detect object, artificial illumination and it was generating reference background more clearly. Block is classified by block-state analysis. Block-state has a 4 state (i.e. transient, stationary, background, artificial illumination). Fig. 1 is show characteristic of block-state respectively [1]. Experimental results show that the presented approach works well in the presence of illumination variance.

Keywords: Block-state, Edge component, Reference backgroundi, Artificial illumination.

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Authors: M. S. Reza, M. Hamdi, S. H. Tomadi, A. R. Ismail

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The operating control parameters of injection flushing type of electrical discharge machining process on stainless steel 304 workpiece using copper tools are being optimized according to its individual machining characteristic i.e. Electrode Wear Ratio (EWR). Higher EWR would give bad dimensional precision for the EDM machined workpiece because of high electrode wear. Hence, the quality characteristic for EWR is set to lower-the-better to achieve the optimum dimensional precision for the machined workpiece. Taguchi method has been used for the construction, layout and analysis of the experiment for EWR machining characteristic. The use of Taguchi method in the experiment saves a lot of time and cost of preparing and machining the experiment samples. Therefore, an L18 Orthogonal array which was the fundamental component in the statistical design of experiments has been used to plan the experiments and Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) is used to determine the optimum machining parameters for this machining characteristic. The control parameters selected for this optimization experiments are polarity, pulse on duration, discharge current, discharge voltage, machining depth, machining diameter and dielectric liquid pressure. The result had shown that negative polarity machining parameter setting will decreases EWR.

Keywords: ANOVA, EDM, Injection Flushing, L18Orthogonal Array, EWR, Stainless Steel 304

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Authors: Satish Kumar, Arun Kumar Gupta, Pankaj Chandna

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The present work analyses different parameters of pressure die casting to minimize the casting defects. Pressure diecasting is usually applied for casting of aluminium alloys. Good surface finish with required tolerances and dimensional accuracy can be achieved by optimization of controllable process parameters such as solidification time, molten temperature, filling time, injection pressure and plunger velocity. Moreover, by selection of optimum process parameters the pressure die casting defects such as porosity, insufficient spread of molten material, flash etc. are also minimized. Therefore, a pressure die casting component, carburetor housing of aluminium alloy (Al2Si2O5) has been considered. The effects of selected process parameters on casting defects and subsequent setting of parameters with the levels have been accomplished by Taguchi-s parameter design approach. The experiments have been performed as per the combination of levels of different process parameters suggested by L18 orthogonal array. Analyses of variance have been performed for mean and signal-to-noise ratio to estimate the percent contribution of different process parameters. Confidence interval has also been estimated for 95% consistency level and three conformational experiments have been performed to validate the optimum level of different parameters. Overall 2.352% reduction in defects has been observed with the help of suggested optimum process parameters.

Keywords: Aluminium Casting, Pressure Die Casting, Taguchi Methodology, Design of Experiments

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Authors: S. Khosravi, A. Afshar, F. Barazandeh

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In this study we propose a novel monitor hydraulic automatic gauge control (HAGC) system based on fuzzy feedforward controller. This is used in the development of cold rolling mill automation system to improve the quality of cold strip. According to features/ properties of entry steel strip like its average yield stress, width of strip, and desired exit thickness, this controller realizes the compensation for the exit thickness error. The traditional methods of adjusting the roller position, can-t tolerate the variance in the entry steel strip. The proposed method uses a mathematical model of the system together with the expert knowledge to perform this adjustment while minimizing the effect of the stated problem. In order to improve the speed of the controller in rejecting disturbances introduced by entry strip thickness variations, expert knowledge is added as a feed-forward term to the HAGC system. Simulation results for the application of the proposed controller to a real cold mill show that the exit strip quality is highly improved.

Keywords: Fuzzy feed-forward controller, monitor HAGC system, dynamic mathematical model, entry strip thickness deviation compensation

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Authors: Dalin Si, Azizan Aziz, Bertrand Lasternas

Abstract:

To encourage building owners to purchase electricity at the wholesale market and reduce building peak demand, this study aims to develop models that predict day-ahead hourly electricity consumption and demand using artificial neural network (ANN) and support vector machine (SVM). All prediction models are built in Python, with tool Scikit-learn and Pybrain. The input data for both consumption and demand prediction are time stamp, outdoor dry bulb temperature, relative humidity, air handling unit (AHU), supply air temperature and solar radiation. Solar radiation, which is unavailable a day-ahead, is predicted at first, and then this estimation is used as an input to predict consumption and demand. Models to predict consumption and demand are trained in both SVM and ANN, and depend on cooling or heating, weekdays or weekends. The results show that ANN is the better option for both consumption and demand prediction. It can achieve 15.50% to 20.03% coefficient of variance of root mean square error (CVRMSE) for consumption prediction and 22.89% to 32.42% CVRMSE for demand prediction, respectively. To conclude, the presented models have potential to help building owners to purchase electricity at the wholesale market, but they are not robust when used in demand response control.

Keywords: Building energy prediction, data mining, demand response, electricity market.

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Authors: Mehmet Bekmezci, Ismail Celik, Ismail Sahin, Ahmet Kiray, A. Oguz Akturk

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In this research, students’ scientific attitude, computer anxiety, educational use of the Internet, academic achievement, and problematic use of the Internet are analyzed based on different variables (gender, parents’ educational level and daily access to the Internet). The research group involves 361 students from two middle schools which are located in the center of Konya. The “general survey method” is adopted in the research. In accordance with the purpose of the study, percentage, mean, standard deviation, independent samples t--‐test, ANOVA (variance) are employed in the study. A total of four scales are implemented. These four scales include a total of 13 sub-dimensions. The scores from these scales and their subscales are studied in terms of various variables. In the research, students’ scientific attitude, computer anxiety, educational use of the Internet, the problematic Internet use and academic achievement (gender, parent educational level, and daily access to the Internet) are investigated based on various variables and some significant relations are found.

Keywords: Scientific Attitude, Educational use of the Internet, Computer Anxiety, Problematic use of the Internet, Academic Achievement.

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Authors: H. López-Moreno, A. Rodríguez-Sánchez, C. Viñas-Arrebola, C. Porras-Amores

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The ventilated façade has great advantages when compared to traditional façades as it reduces the air conditioning thermal loads due to the stack effect induced by solar radiation in the air chamber. Optimizing energy consumption by using a ventilated façade can be used not only in newly built buildings but also it can be implemented in existing buildings, opening the field of implementation to energy building retrofitting works. In this sense, the following three prototypes of façade where designed, built and further analyzed in this research: non-ventilated façade (NVF); slightly ventilated façade (SLVF) and strongly ventilated façade (STVF). The construction characteristics of the three facades are based on the Spanish regulation of building construction “Technical Building Code”. The façades have been monitored by type-k thermocouples in a representative day of the summer season in Madrid (Spain). Moreover, an analysis of variance (ANOVA) with repeated measures, studying the thermal lag in the ventilated and no-ventilated façades has been designed. Results show that STVF façade presents higher levels of thermal inertia as the thermal lag reduces up to 17% (daily mean) compared to the non-ventilated façade. In addition, the statistical analysis proves that an increase of the ventilation holes size in STVF façades can improve the thermal lag significantly (p >0.05) when compared to the SLVF façade.

Keywords: Energy efficiency, experimental study, statistical analysis, thermal behavior, ventilated façade.

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Authors: Farzaneh Ahmadzadeh

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Quality control charts are very effective in detecting out of control signals but when a control chart signals an out of control condition of the process mean, searching for a special cause in the vicinity of the signal time would not always lead to prompt identification of the source(s) of the out of control condition as the change point in the process parameter(s) is usually different from the signal time. It is very important to manufacturer to determine at what point and which parameters in the past caused the signal. Early warning of process change would expedite the search for the special causes and enhance quality at lower cost. In this paper the quality variables under investigation are assumed to follow a multivariate normal distribution with known means and variance-covariance matrix and the process means after one step change remain at the new level until the special cause is being identified and removed, also it is supposed that only one variable could be changed at the same time. This research applies artificial neural network (ANN) to identify the time the change occurred and the parameter which caused the change or shift. The performance of the approach was assessed through a computer simulation experiment. The results show that neural network performs effectively and equally well for the whole shift magnitude which has been considered.

Keywords: Artificial neural network, change point estimation, monte carlo simulation, multivariate exponentially weighted movingaverage

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Authors: Chua Bee Seok, Shamsul Amri Baharuddin, Rosnah Ismail, Ferlis Bahari, Jasmine Adela Mutang, Lailawati Madlan, Asong Joseph

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The aims of this study were to determine the factor structure and psychometric properties (i.e., reliability and convergent validity) of the Malaysian Multi-Ethnic Discrimination Scale (MMEDS). It consists of 71-items measure experience, strategies used and consequences of ethnic discrimination. A sample of 649 university students from one of the higher education institution in Malaysia was asked to complete MMEDS, as well as Perceived Ethnic and Racial Discrimination. The exploratory factor analysis on ethnic discrimination experience extracted two factors labeled ‘unfair treatment’ (15 items) and ‘Denial of the ethnic right’ (12 items) which accounted for 60.92% of the total variance. The two sub scales demonstrated clear reliability with internal consistency above .70. The convergent validity of the Scale was supported by an expected pattern of correlations (positive and significant correlation) between the score of unfair treatment and denial of the ethnic right and the score of Perceived Ethnic and Racial Discrimination by Peers Scale. The results suggest that the MMEDS is a reliable and valid measure. However, further studies need to be carried out in other groups of sample as to validate the Scale.

Keywords: Factor structure, psychometric properties, exploratory factor analysis.

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Authors: Farhad Kolahan, A. Hamid Khajavi

Abstract:

Abrasive waterjet is a novel machining process capable of processing wide range of hard-to-machine materials. This research addresses modeling and optimization of the process parameters for this machining technique. To model the process a set of experimental data has been used to evaluate the effects of various parameter settings in cutting 6063-T6 aluminum alloy. The process variables considered here include nozzle diameter, jet traverse rate, jet pressure and abrasive flow rate. Depth of cut, as one of the most important output characteristics, has been evaluated based on different parameter settings. The Taguchi method and regression modeling are used in order to establish the relationships between input and output parameters. The adequacy of the model is evaluated using analysis of variance (ANOVA) technique. The pairwise effects of process parameters settings on process response outputs are also shown graphically. The proposed model is then embedded into a Simulated Annealing algorithm to optimize the process parameters. The optimization is carried out for any desired values of depth of cut. The objective is to determine proper levels of process parameters in order to obtain a certain level of depth of cut. Computational results demonstrate that the proposed solution procedure is quite effective in solving such multi-variable problems.

Keywords: AWJ cutting, Mathematical modeling, Simulated Annealing, Optimization

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Authors: Abdulfatah Faraj Aboufayed

Abstract:

Water erosion is the most important problems of the soil in the Jabel Nefusa area located in northwest of Libya; therefore, erosion station had been established in the Faculty of Veterinary and dryfarming research Station, University of the Al-japel Al-gharbi in Zentan. The length of the station is 72.6 feet, 6 feet width and the percentage of its slope is 3%. The station were established to measure the amount of soil eroded and amount of surface water produced during the seasons 95/96 and 96/97 from each rain storms. The monitoring shows that there was a difference between the two seasons in the number of rainstorms which made differences in the amount of surface runoff water and the amount of soil eroded between the two seasons. Although the slope is low (3%), the soil texture is sandy and the land ploughed twice during each season surface runoff and soil eroded were occurred. The average amount of eroded soil was 3792 grams (gr) per season and the average amount of surface runoff water was 410 liter (L) per season. The amount of surface runoff water would be much greater from Jebel Nefusa upland with steep slopes and collecting of them will save a valuable amount of water which lost as a runoff while this area is in desperate of this water. The regression analysis of variance show strong correlation between rainfall depth and the other two depended variable (the amount of surface runoff water and the amount of eroded soil. It shows also strong correlation between amount of surface runoff water and amount of eroded soil.

Keywords: Rain, Surface runoff water, Soil, Water erosion, Soil erosion.

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Authors: Jia-Ru Li, Ching-Wen Lin

Abstract:

The study was designed to develop a measurement of the positive emotion regulation questionnaire (PERQ) that assesses positive emotion regulation strategies through self-report. The 14 items developed for the surveying instrument of the study were based upon literatures regarding elements of positive regulation strategies. 319 elementary students (age ranging from 12 to14) were recruited among three public elementary schools to survey on their use of positive emotion regulation strategies. Of 319 subjects, 20 invalid questionnaire s yielded a response rate of 92%. The data collected wasanalyzed through methods such as item analysis, factor analysis, and structural equation models. In reference to the results from item analysis, the formal survey instrument was reduced to 11 items. A principal axis factor analysis with varimax was performed on responses, resulting in a 2-factor equation (savoring strategy and neutralizing strategy), which accounted for 55.5% of the total variance. Then, the two-factor structure of scale was also identified by structural equation models. Finally, the reliability coefficients of the two factors were Cronbach-s α .92 and .74. Gender difference was only found in savoring strategy. In conclusion, the positive emotion regulation strategies questionnaire offers a brief, internally consistent, and valid self-report measure for understanding the emotional regulation strategies of children that may be useful to researchers and applied professionals.

Keywords: Emotional regulation, emotional regulation strategies, scale, SEM.

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Authors: M. Govindarajan, R. M.Chandrasekaran

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Text data mining is a process of exploratory data analysis. Classification maps data into predefined groups or classes. It is often referred to as supervised learning because the classes are determined before examining the data. This paper describes proposed radial basis function Classifier that performs comparative crossvalidation for existing radial basis function Classifier. The feasibility and the benefits of the proposed approach are demonstrated by means of data mining problem: direct Marketing. Direct marketing has become an important application field of data mining. Comparative Cross-validation involves estimation of accuracy by either stratified k-fold cross-validation or equivalent repeated random subsampling. While the proposed method may have high bias; its performance (accuracy estimation in our case) may be poor due to high variance. Thus the accuracy with proposed radial basis function Classifier was less than with the existing radial basis function Classifier. However there is smaller the improvement in runtime and larger improvement in precision and recall. In the proposed method Classification accuracy and prediction accuracy are determined where the prediction accuracy is comparatively high.

Keywords: Text Data Mining, Comparative Cross-validation, Radial Basis Function, runtime, accuracy.

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Authors: Saleem Z. Ramadan

Abstract:

This paper discusses the effects of using progressive Type-I right censoring on the design of the Simple Step Accelerated Life testing using Bayesian approach for Weibull life products under the assumption of cumulative exposure model. The optimization criterion used in this paper is to minimize the expected pre-posterior variance of the P^th percentile time of failures. The model variables are the stress changing time and the stress value for the first step. A comparison between the conventional and the progressive Type-I right censoring is provided. The results have shown that the progressive Type-I right censoring reduces the cost of testing on the expense of the test precision when the sample size is small. Moreover, the results have shown that using strong priors or large sample size reduces the sensitivity of the test precision to the censoring proportion. Hence, the progressive Type-I right censoring is recommended in these cases as progressive Type-I right censoring reduces the cost of the test and doesn't affect the precision of the test a lot. Moreover, the results have shown that using direct or indirect priors affects the precision of the test.

Keywords: Reliability, Accelerated life testing, Cumulative exposure model, Bayesian estimation, Progressive Type-I censoring, Weibull distribution.

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Authors: Yose Rizal, Maria Endo Mahata, Mira Andriani, Guoyao Wu

Abstract:

An experiment was conducted with 80 unsexed broilers of the Arbor Acress strain to determine the capability of a carrot and fruit juice wastes mixture (carrot, apple, manggo, avocado, orange, melon and Dutch egg plant) in the same proportion for replacing corn in broiler diet. This study involved a completely randomized design (CRD) with 5 treatments (0, 5, 10, 15, and 20% of juice wastes mixture in diets) and 4 replicates per treatment. Diets were isonitrogenous (22% crude protein) and isocaloric (3000 kcal/kg diet). Measured variables were feed consumption, average daily gain, feed conversion, as well as percentages of abdominal fat pad, carcass, digestive organs (liver, pancreas and gizzard), and heart. Data were analyzed by analysis of variance for CRD. Increasing juice wastes mixture levels in diets increased feed consumption (P<0.05) and average daily gain (P<0.01), while improving feed utilization efficiency (P<0.05). These treatments also affected (P<0.05) abdominal fat pad percentage but had no effect (P>0.05) on carcass, liver, pancreas, gizzard or heart percentages. In conclusion, up to 20% of juice wastes mixture could be included for the broiler diet to effectively replace up to 40% corn in the diet.

Keywords: average daily gain, feed consumption, feedconversion, juice waste mixture

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Authors: Samuel A. Phillips, Emmanuel A. Ayanlowo, Rasaki O. Olanrewaju, Olayode Fatoki

Abstract:

This paper employs the Jeffrey's prior technique in the process of estimating the periodograms and frequency of sinusoidal model for unknown noisy time variants or oscillating events (data) in a Bayesian setting. The non-informative Jeffrey's prior was adopted for the posterior trigonometric function of the sinusoidal model such that Cramer-Rao Lower Bound (CRLB) inference was used in carving-out the minimum variance needed to curb the invariance structure effect for unknown noisy time observational and repeated circular patterns. An average monthly oscillating temperature series measured in degree Celsius (0C) from 1901 to 2014 was subjected to the posterior solution of the unknown noisy events of the sinusoidal model via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). It was not only deduced that two minutes period is required before completing a cycle of changing temperature from one particular degree Celsius to another but also that the sinusoidal model via the CRLB-Jeffrey's prior for unknown noisy events produced a miniature posterior Maximum A Posteriori (MAP) compare to a known noisy events.

Keywords: Cramer-Rao Lower Bound (CRLB), Jeffrey's prior, Sinusoidal, Maximum A Posteriori (MAP), Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), Periodograms.

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Authors: Ruoya Huang, Ruoxian Huang, Edgar Huang

Abstract:

Based on a convenience sample of 2,092 participants from across all 50 states of the United States, a survey was conducted to explore Americans’ mask-wearing behaviors during COVID-19 according to their political convictions, religious beliefs, and ethnic cultures from late July to early September, 2020. The purpose of the study is to provide evidential support for government policymaking so as to drive up more effective public policies by taking into consideration the variance in these social factors. It was found that the respondents’ party affiliation or preference, religious belief, and ethnicity, in addition to their health condition, gender, level of concern of contracting COVID-19, all affected their mask-wearing habits both in March, the initial coronavirus outbreak stage, and in August, when mask-wearing had been made mandatory by state governments. The study concludes that pandemic awareness campaigns must be run among all citizens, especially among African Americans, Muslims, and Republicans, who have the lowest rates of wearing masks, in order to protect themselves and others. It is recommended that complementary cognitive bias awareness programs should be implemented in non-Black and non-Muslim communities to eliminate social concerns that deter them from wearing masks.

Keywords: COVID-19 pandemic, ethnicity, mask-wearing, policymaking implications, political affiliations, religious beliefs, United States.

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Authors: Zehai Yu, Hui Zhu, Linglong Lin, Huawei Liang, Biao Yu, Weixin Huang

Abstract:

With the development of intelligent vehicle systems, a high-precision road map is increasingly needed in many aspects. The automatic lane lines extraction and modeling are the most essential steps for the generation of a precise lane-level road map. In this paper, an automatic lane-level road map generation system is proposed. To extract the road markings on the ground, the multi-region Otsu thresholding method is applied, which calculates the intensity value of laser data that maximizes the variance between background and road markings. The extracted road marking points are then projected to the raster image and clustered using a two-stage clustering algorithm. Lane lines are subsequently recognized from these clusters by the shape features of their minimum bounding rectangle. To ensure the storage efficiency of the map, the lane lines are approximated to cubic polynomial curves using a Bayesian estimation approach. The proposed lane-level road map generation system has been tested on urban and expressway conditions in Hefei, China. The experimental results on the datasets show that our method can achieve excellent extraction and clustering effect, and the fitted lines can reach a high position accuracy with an error of less than 10 cm.

Keywords: Curve fitting, lane-level road map, line recognition, multi-thresholding, two-stage clustering.

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Authors: H. D. Ibrahim, H. C. Chinwenyi, A. H. Usman

Abstract:

Valuing derivatives (options, futures, swaps, forwards, etc.) is one uneasy task in financial mathematics. The two ways this problem can be effectively resolved in finance is by the use of two methods (Martingales and Partial Differential Equations (PDEs)) to obtain their respective options price valuation formulas. This research paper examined two different stochastic financial models which are Constant Elasticity of Variance (CEV) model and Black-Karasinski term structure model. Assuming their respective option price valuation formulas, we proved the analogous of the Martingales and PDEs options price valuation formulas for the two different Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE) models. This was accomplished by using the applications of Girsanov theorem for defining an Equivalent Martingale Measure (EMM) and the Feynman-Kac theorem. The results obtained show the systematic proof for analogous of the two (Martingales and PDEs) options price valuation formulas beginning with the Martingales option price formula and arriving back at the Black-Scholes parabolic PDEs and vice versa.

Keywords: Option price valuation, Martingales, Partial Differential Equations, PDEs, Equivalent Martingale Measure, Girsanov Theorem, Feyman-Kac Theorem, European Put Option.

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Authors: Mukesh Doble, Sunil K Narayan

Abstract:

Diffuse viral encephalitis may lack fever and other cardinal signs of infection and hence its distinction from other acute encephalopathic illnesses is challenging. Often, the EEG changes seen routinely are nonspecific and reflect diffuse encephalopathic changes only. The aim of this study was to use nonlinear dynamic mathematical techniques for analyzing the EEG data in order to look for any characteristic diagnostic patterns in diffuse forms of encephalitis.It was diagnosed on clinical, imaging and cerebrospinal fluid criteria in three young male patients. Metabolic and toxic encephalopathies were ruled out through appropriate investigations. Digital EEGs were done on the 3rd to 5th day of onset. The digital EEGs of 5 male and 5 female age and sex matched healthy volunteers served as controls.Two sample t-test indicated that there was no statistically significant difference between the average values in amplitude between the two groups. However, the standard deviation (or variance) of the EEG signals at FP1-F7 and FP2-F8 are significantly higher for the patients than the normal subjects. The regularisation dimension is significantly less for the patients (average between 1.24-1.43) when compared to the normal persons (average between 1.41-1.63) for the EEG signals from all locations except for the Fz-Cz signal. Similarly the wavelet dimension is significantly less (P = 0.05*) for the patients (1.122) when compared to the normal person (1.458). EEGs are subdued in the case of the patients with presence of uniform patterns, manifested in the values of regularisation and wavelet dimensions, when compared to the normal person, indicating a decrease in chaotic nature.

Keywords: Chaos, Diffuse encephalitis, Electroencephalogram, Fractal dimension, Fourier spectrum.

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Authors: A. Elyousfi, A. Tamtaoui, E. Bouyakhf

Abstract:

The H.264/AVC video coding standard contains a number of advanced features. Ones of the new features introduced in this standard is the multiple intramode prediction. Its function exploits directional spatial correlation with adjacent block for intra prediction. With this new features, intra coding of H.264/AVC offers a considerably higher improvement in coding efficiency compared to other compression standard, but computational complexity is increased significantly when brut force rate distortion optimization (RDO) algorithm is used. In this paper, we propose a new fast intra prediction mode decision method for the complexity reduction of H.264 video coding. for luma intra prediction, the proposed method consists of two step: in the first step, we make the RDO for four mode of intra 4x4 block, based the distribution of RDO cost of those modes and the idea that the fort correlation with adjacent mode, we select the best mode of intra 4x4 block. In the second step, we based the fact that the dominating direction of a smaller block is similar to that of bigger block, the candidate modes of 8x8 blocks and 16x16 macroblocks are determined. So, in case of chroma intra prediction, the variance of the chroma pixel values is much smaller than that of luma ones, since our proposed uses only the mode DC. Experimental results show that the new fast intra mode decision algorithm increases the speed of intra coding significantly with negligible loss of PSNR.

Keywords: Intra prediction, H264/AVC, video coding, encodercomplexity.

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