Search results for: economic planning depth

Authors: Ilias A. Makris

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In this work, we attempt to analyze the contribution of innovative activities to firm performance and growth. We examine economic data from some of the economies that were heavily affected by current economic crisis: the countries of southern Europe (Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain) and Ireland. Following literature, an appropriate econometric model is developed and several indicators are tested in order to disclose possible relation with innovative activity. Findings confirm the crucial effect of innovative process in economic activity, in firm and country level.

Keywords: Eurozone Periphery, Firm Performance, Innovative activity, R&D.

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Authors: Violetta Parutis

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This qualitative study aims to answer the following research questions: i) What are the factors that students perceive as relevant to a) promoting and b) preventing good grades? ii) How does socio-economic status (SES) feature in those beliefs? We conducted in-depth interviews with 19 first- and second-year undergraduates of varying SES at a research-intensive university in the UK. The interviews yielded eight factors that students perceived as promoting and six perceived as preventing good grades. The findings suggested one significant difference between the beliefs of low and high SES students in that low SES students perceive themselves to be at a greater disadvantage to their peers while high SES students do not have such beliefs. This could have knock-on effects on their performance.

Keywords: Social class, education, academic performance, students’ beliefs.

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Authors: Jagabondhu Hazra, Avinash Sinha

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Economic dispatch problem is an optimization problem where objective function is highly non linear, non-convex, non-differentiable and may have multiple local minima. Therefore, classical optimization methods may not converge or get trapped to any local minima. This paper presents a comparative study of four different evolutionary algorithms i.e. genetic algorithm, bacteria foraging optimization, ant colony optimization and particle swarm optimization for solving the economic dispatch problem. All the methods are tested on IEEE 30 bus test system. Simulation results are presented to show the comparative performance of these methods.

Keywords: Ant colony optimization, bacteria foraging optimization, economic dispatch, evolutionary algorithm, genetic algorithm, particle swarm optimization.

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Authors: E. Bruno, F. Lacarbonara, M. C. Placentino, D. Gramegna

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Environmental decision making, particularly about hazardous waste management, is inherently exposed to a high potential conflict, principally because of the trade-off between sociopolitical, environmental, health and economic factors. The need to plan complex contexts has led to an increasing request for decision analytic techniques as support for the decision process. In this work, alternative systems of asbestos-containing waste management (ACW) in Puglia (Southern Italy) were explored by a multi-criteria decision analysis. In particular, through Analytic Hierarchy Process five alternatives management have been compared and ranked according to their performance and efficiency, taking into account environmental, health and socio-economic aspects. A separated valuation has been performed for different temporal scale. For short period results showed a narrow deviation between the disposal alternatives “mono-material landfill in public quarry" and “dedicate cells in existing landfill", with the best performance of the first one. While for long period “treatment plant to eliminate hazard from asbestos-containing waste" was prevalent, although high energy demand required to achieve the change of crystalline structure. A comparison with results from a participative approach in valuation process might be considered as future development of method application to ACW management.

Keywords: Multi-criteria decision analysis, Hazardous wastemanagement, Asbestos.

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Authors: Debasis Neogi

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India-s North-Eastern part, comprising of seven states, is a lowly developed, tribal population dominated region in India. Inspite of the common Mongoloid origin and lifestyle of majority of the population residing here, sharp differences exist in the status of their socio-economic development. The present paper, through a state-wise analysis, makes an attempt to find out the extent of this disparity, especially on the socio-economic front. It illustrates the situations prevailing in health, education, economic and social cohesion sector. Discussion on the implications of such disparity on social stability finds that the causes of frequent insurgency activities, that have been penetrating the region for a long time, thereby creating communal conflicts, can be traced in the economic deprivation and disparity. In the last section, the paper makes policy prescription and suggests how by taking care of disparity and deprivation both poverty and the problem of communal conflicts can be controlled.

Keywords: Disparity, development, deprivation, communal conflicts.

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Authors: Barau Daniel, Bashayi Obadiah

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A spatial analysis of a large 20th century urban settlement (town/city) easily presents the celebrated central Business District (CBD). Theories of Urban Land Economics have easily justified and attempted to explain the existence of such a district activity area within the cityscape. This work examines the gradual emergence and development of the CBD in Lafia Town, Nigeria over 20 years and the attended urban problems caused by its emergence. Personal knowledge and observation of land use change are the main sources of data for the work, with unstructured interview with residents. The result are that the absence of a co-ordinate land use plan for the town, multi-nuclei nature, and regional location of surrounding towns have affected the growth pattern, hence the CBD. Traffic congestion, dispersed CBD land uses are some of the urban planning problems. The work concludes by advocating for integrating CBD uses.

Keywords: Urban planning, Central Business District (CBD), downtown.

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Authors: E. Šarauskis, L. Masilionyte, Z. Kriaučiūniene, K. Romaneckas

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All over the world, including the Middle and East European countries, sustainable tillage and sowing technologies are applied increasingly broadly with a view to optimising soil resources, mitigating soil degradation processes, saving energy resources, preserving biological diversity, etc. As a result, altered conditions of tillage and sowing technological processes are faced inevitably. The purpose of this study is to determine the seedbed topsoil hardness when using a combined sowing coulter in different sustainable tillage technologies. The research involved a combined coulter consisting of two dissected blade discs and a shoe coulter. In order to determine soil hardness at the seedbed area, a multipenetrometer was used. It was found by experimental studies that in loosened soil, a combined sowing coulter equally suppresses the furrow bottom, walls and soil near the furrow; therefore, here, soil hardness was similar at all researched depths and no significant differences were established. In loosened and compacted (double-rolled) soil, the impact of a combined coulter on the hardness of seedbed soil surface was more considerable at a depth of 2 mm. Soil hardness at the furrow bottom and walls to a distance of up to 26 mm was 1.1 MPa. At a depth of 10 mm, the greatest hardness was established at the furrow bottom. In loosened and heavily compacted (rolled for 6 times) soil, at a depth of 2 and 10 mm a combined coulter most of all compacted the furrow bottom, which has a hardness of 1.8 MPa. At a depth of 20 mm, soil hardness within the whole investigated area varied insignificantly and fluctuated by around 2.0 MPa. The hardness of furrow walls and soil near the furrow was by approximately 1.0 MPa lower than that at the furrow bottom

Keywords: Coulters design, seedbed, soil hardness, combined coulters, soil compaction.

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Authors: Libena Cernohorska, Jan Cernohorsky

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This article aims to evaluate the impact of loans provided within the Czech banking sector on the growth of the Czech economy. The article is based on research of current scientific findings in respect to bank loans and economic development. The paper is based on data taken from the Czech Statistical Office on the development of the gross domestic product and data from the Czech National Bank on the development of loans from the period 2004-2015. Links between selected variables are tested using Granger causality tests. The results calculated confirm the hypothesis of the impact of the loans on economic growth, with a six-month delay. The results thus correspond to the standard economic findings and results of most previous studies.

Keywords: Bank, business cycle, economic growth, loans.

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Authors: G. Erkomaishvili

Abstract:

This paper discusses small entrepreneurship development strategy in Georgia and the tools and regulations that will encourage development of small entrepreneurship. The current situation in the small entrepreneurship sector, as well as factors affecting growth and decline in the sector and the priorities of state support, are studied and analyzed. The objective of this research is to assess the current situation of the sector to highlight opportunities and reveal the gaps. State support of small entrepreneurship should become a key priority in the country’s economic policy, as development of the sector will ensure social, economic and political stability. Based on the research, a small entrepreneurship development strategy is presented; corresponding conclusions are made and recommendations are developed.

Keywords: Economic policy for small entrepreneurship development, small entrepreneurship, regulations, small entrepreneurship development strategy.

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Authors: Hazlina Hamdan, Fatimah Yusof, Dasimah Omar, Faizul Abdullah, Naasah Nasrudin, Ishak Che Abullah

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In the globalization context and competitiveness, the role of a university is further enhanced. University is no longer confined to traditional roles. Universities need to interact with others in order to be relevant and progressive. Symbiosis relationships between the university and industry are very significant because the relationship between those two can foster economic development of a nation. In a world of fast changing technology and competition, it is necessary for the university to collaborate with industry to combine efforts fostering the diffusion of knowledge, increasing research and development, patenting innovation and commercializing products. It has become increasingly accepted that the necessity of close university-industry interactions as a mean of national economic prosperity. Therefore, this paper is aim to examine the level of linkages in university-industry interactions to which promotes the regional economic growth and development. This paper will explore the formation of linkages between the Higher Education Institution (University Technology MARA) and industries located in the Klang Valley region of Malaysia. It will present the university-industry linkages with emphasis on the type of linkages existed, the benefits of having such linkages to promote regional economic development and finally the constraints that might impede the linkages and potentials to enhance the linkages towards economic growth and development.

Keywords: Industry, Interaction, Linkages, Regional development, University

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Authors: M. M. Mashhadi, K. Mohajeri, M. D. Nayeri

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Positioning the organization in the strategic environment of its industry is one of the first and most important phases of the organizational strategic planning and in today knowledge-based economy has its importance been duplicated for higher education institutes as the centers of education, knowledge creation and knowledge worker training. Up to now, various models with diverse approaches have been applied to investigate organizations- strategic position in different industries. Regarding the essential importance and strategic role of quality in higher education institutes, in this study, a quality-oriented approach has been suggested to positioning them in their strategic environment. Then the European Foundation of Quality Management (EFQM) model has been adopted to position the top Iranian business schools in their strategic environment. The result of this study can be used in strategic planning of these institutes as well as the other Iranian business schools.

Keywords: Strategic planning, Strategic positioning, Quality, EFQM model, Higher education institutions.

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Authors: Hossein Shokouhmand , Mohammad A. Esmaeili, Koohyar Vahidkhah

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This paper presents a numerical study on surface heat transfer characteristics of laminar air flows in parallel-plate dimpled channels. The two-dimensional numerical model is provided by commercial code FLUENT and the results are obtained for channels with symmetrically opposing hemi-cylindrical cavities onto both walls for Reynolds number ranging from 1000 to 2500. The influence of variations in relative depth of dimples (the ratio of cavity depth to the cavity curvature diameter), the number of them and the thermophysical properties of channel walls on heat transfer enhancement is studied. The results are evident for existence of an optimum value for the relative depth of dimples in which the largest wall heat flux and average Nusselt number can be achieved. In addition, the results of conjugation simulation indicate that the overall influence of the ratio of wall thermal conductivity to the one of the fluid on heat transfer rate is not much significant and can be ignored.

Keywords: cavity, conjugation, heat transfer, laminar air flow, Numerical, parallel-plate channel.

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Authors: M. Othman, N. Bhuiyan, G. J. Gouw

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In today-s global and competitive market, manufacturing companies are working hard towards improving their production system performance. Most companies develop production systems that can help in cost reduction. Manufacturing systems consist of different elements including production methods, machines, processes, control and information systems. Human issues are an important part of manufacturing systems, yet most companies do not pay sufficient attention to them. In this paper, a workforce planning (WP) model is presented. A non-linear programming model is developed in order to minimize the hiring, firing, training and overtime costs. The purpose is to determine the number of workers for each worker type, the number of workers trained, and the number of overtime hours. Moreover, a decision support system (DSS) based on the proposed model is introduced using the Excel-Lingo software interfacing feature. This model will help to improve the interaction between the workers, managers and the technical systems in manufacturing.

Keywords: Decision Support System, Human Factors, Manufacturing System, Workforce Planning.

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Authors: N. Rugthaicharoencheep, S. Auchariyamet

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Distributed Generation (DG) in the form of renewable power generation systems is currently preferred for clean power generation. It has a significant impact on the distribution systems. This impact may be either positively or negatively depending on the distribution system, distributed generator and load characteristics. In this works, an overview of DG is briefly introduced. The technology of DG is also listed while the technical impacts and economic impacts are explained.

Keywords: Distributed Generation, Technical Impacts, Economic Impacts.

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Authors: Navid Javidtash, Abdolmohamad Davodi, Mojtaba Hakimzadeh, Abdolreza Roozbeh

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Economic dispatch (ED) is considered to be one of the key functions in electric power system operation. This paper presents a new hybrid approach based genetic algorithm (GA) to economic dispatch problems. GA is most commonly used optimizing algorithm predicated on principal of natural evolution. Utilization of chaotic queue with GA generates several neighborhoods of near optimal solutions to keep solution variation. It could avoid the search process from becoming pre-mature. For the objective of chaotic queue generation, utilization of tent equation as opposed to logistic equation results in improvement of iterative speed. The results of the proposed approach were compared in terms of fuel cost, with existing differential evolution and other methods in literature.

Keywords: Economic Dispatch(ED), Optimization, Fuel Cost, Genetic Algorithm (GA).

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Authors: M. Župan, V. Budimir

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The main problems of data centric and open source project are large number of developers and changes of core framework. Model-View-Control (MVC) design pattern significantly improved the development and adjustments of complex projects. Entity framework as a Model layer in MVC architecture has simplified communication with the database. How often are the new technologies used and whether they have potentials for designing more efficient Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) system that will be more suited to accountants?

Keywords: Accounting, Enterprise Resource Planning, Model- View-Control, Object Role Modeling, Open Source

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Authors: Al Mutawa A. Amir, Liaqat Ali, Faisal Ali

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After the World War II, the world economy was disrupted and changed due to oil and its prices. The research in this paper presents the basic statistical features and economic characteristics of the Gulf economy. The main features of the Gulf economies and its heavy dependence on oil exports, its dualism between modern and traditional sectors and its rapidly increasing affluences are particularly emphasized.  In this context, the research in this paper discussed the problems of growth versus development and has attempted to draw the implications for the future economic development of this area.

Keywords: Oil prices, Gulf Cooperation Council, economic growth, Gulf oil.

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Authors: G. Martino, F. Silva, E. Marchal

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The control over delivered iron ore blend characteristics is one of the most important aspects of the mining business. The iron ore price is a function of its composition, which is the outcome of the beneficiation process. So, end-to-end integrated planning of mine operations can reduce risks of penalties on the iron ore price. In a standard iron mining company, the production chain is composed of mining, ore beneficiation, and client supply. When mine planning and client supply decisions are made uncoordinated, the beneficiation plant struggles to deliver the best blend possible. Technological improvements in several fields allowed bridging the gap between departments and boosting integrated decision-making processes. Clusterization and classification algorithms over historical production data generate reasonable previsions for quality and volume of iron ore produced for each pile of run-of-mine (ROM) processed. Mathematical modeling can use those deterministic relations to propose iron ore blends that better-fit specifications within a delivery schedule. Additionally, a model capable of representing the whole production chain can clearly compare the overall impact of different decisions in the process. This study shows how flexibilization combined with a planning optimization model between the mine and the ore beneficiation processes can reduce risks of out of specification deliveries. The model capabilities are illustrated on a hypothetical iron ore mine with magnetic separation process. Finally, this study shows ways of cost reduction or profit increase by optimizing process indicators across the production chain and integrating the different plannings with the sales decisions.

Keywords: Clusterization and classification algorithms, integrated planning, optimization, mathematical modeling, penalty minimization.

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Authors: Kuntal Thakkar, Chaouki Ghenai, Ahmed Hachicha

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An integrated modeling approach was used in this study for energy planning and climate change mitigation assessment. The main objective of this study was to develop various green-house gas (GHG) mitigations scenarios in the energy demand and supply sectors for the state of Florida. The Long range energy alternative planning (LEAP) model was used in this study to examine the energy alternative and GHG emissions reduction scenarios for short and long term (2010-2050). One of the energy analysis and GHG mitigation scenarios was developed by taking into account the available renewable energy resources potential for power generation in the state of Florida. This will help to compare and analyze the GHG reduction measure against “Business As Usual” and ‘State of Florida Policy” scenarios. Two master scenarios: “Electrification” and “Energy efficiency and Lifestyle” were developed through combination of various mitigation scenarios: technological changes and energy efficiency and conservation. The results show a net reduction of the energy demand and GHG emissions by adopting these two energy scenarios compared to the business as usual.

Keywords: Integrated modeling, energy planning, climate change mitigation assessment, greenhouse gas emissions, renewable energy, energy efficiency.

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Authors: Redha M. Elhuni

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The critical key success factors, which have to be targeted with appropriate change management, are the user acceptance and support of a new Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) system at the early implementation stages. This becomes even more important in Arab context where national and organisational culture with a different value and belief system, resulting in different management styles, might not complement with Western business culture embedded in the predefined standard business processes of existing ERP packages. This study explains and critically evaluates research into national and organizational culture and the influence of different national cultures on the implementation and reengineering process of ERP packages in an Arab context. Using a case study, realized through a quantitative survey testing five of Martinsons’s and Davison’s propositions in a Libyan sample company, confirmed the expected results from the literature review that culture has an impact on the implementation process and that employee empowerment is an unavoidable consequence of an ERP implementation.

Keywords: Enterprise resource planning, ERP systems, organisational culture, Arab context.

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Authors: Siyanda S. Biyela, Willie A. Cronje

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This paper presents a desktop study of comparing two different wave energy to electricity technologies (WECs) using a techno-economic approach. This techno-economic approach forms basis of a framework for rapid comparison of current and future technologies. The approach also seeks to assist in investment and strategic decision making expediting future deployment of wave energy harvesting in South Africa.

Keywords: Cost of energy, tool, wave energy converter, WEC-Sim.

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Authors: I GD Yudha Partama, A. Kanno, Y. Akamatsu, R. Inui, M. Goto, M. Sekine

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The aerial photogrammetry of shallow water bottoms has the potential to be an efficient high-resolution survey technique for shallow water topography, thanks to the advent of convenient UAV and automatic image processing techniques Structure-from-Motion (SfM) and Multi-View Stereo (MVS)). However, it suffers from the systematic overestimation of the bottom elevation, due to the light refraction at the air-water interface. In this study, we present an empirical method to correct for the effect of refraction after the usual SfM-MVS processing, using common software. The presented method utilizes the empirical relation between the measured true depth and the estimated apparent depth to generate an empirical correction factor. Furthermore, this correction factor was utilized to convert the apparent water depth into a refraction-corrected (real-scale) water depth. To examine its effectiveness, we applied the method to two river sites, and compared the RMS errors in the corrected bottom elevations with those obtained by three existing methods. The result shows that the presented method is more effective than the two existing methods: The method without applying correction factor and the method utilizes the refractive index of water (1.34) as correction factor. In comparison with the remaining existing method, which used the additive terms (offset) after calculating correction factor, the presented method performs well in Site 2 and worse in Site 1. However, we found this linear regression method to be unstable when the training data used for calibration are limited. It also suffers from a large negative bias in the correction factor when the apparent water depth estimated is affected by noise, according to our numerical experiment. Overall, the good accuracy of refraction correction method depends on various factors such as the locations, image acquisition, and GPS measurement conditions. The most effective method can be selected by using statistical selection (e.g. leave-one-out cross validation).

Keywords: Bottom elevation, multi-view stereo, river, structure-from-motion.

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Authors: Sohrab Khanmohammadi, Raana Soltani Zarrin

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In this paper, a heuristic method for simultaneous rescue robot path-planning and mission scheduling is introduced based on project management techniques, multi criteria decision making and artificial potential fields path-planning. Groups of injured people are trapped in a disastrous situation. These people are categorized into several groups based on the severity of their situation. A rescue robot, whose ultimate objective is reaching injured groups and providing preliminary aid for them through a path with minimum risk, has to perform certain tasks on its way towards targets before the arrival of rescue team. A decision value is assigned to each target based on the whole degree of satisfaction of the criteria and duties of the robot toward the target and the importance of rescuing each target based on their category and the number of injured people. The resulted decision value defines the strength of the attractive potential field of each target. Dangerous environmental parameters are defined as obstacles whose risk determines the strength of the repulsive potential field of each obstacle. Moreover, negative and positive energies are assigned to the targets and obstacles, which are variable with respects to the factors involved. The simulation results show that the generated path for two cases studies with certain differences in environmental conditions and other risk factors differ considerably.

Keywords: Artificial potential field, GERT, path planning

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Authors: Ball J., Capanni N., Watt S.

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This paper argues that fostering mutual understanding in landscape planning is as much about the planners educating stakeholder groups as the stakeholders educating the planners. In other words it is an epistemological agreement as to the meaning and nature of place, especially where an effort is made to go beyond the quantitative aspects, which can be achieved by the phenomenological experience of the Virtual Reality (VR) environment. This education needs to be a bi-directional process in which distance can be both temporal as well as spatial separation of participants, that there needs to be a common framework of understanding in which neither 'side' is disadvantaged during the process of information exchange and it follows that a medium such as VR offers an effective way of overcoming some of the shortcomings of traditional media by taking advantage of continuing technological advances in Information, Technology and Communications (ITC). In this paper we make particular reference to this as an extension to Geographical Information Systems (GIS). VR as a two-way communication tool offers considerable potential particularly in the area of Public Participation GIS (PPGIS). Information rich virtual environments that can operate over broadband networks are now possible and thus allow for the representation of large amounts of qualitative and quantitative information 'side-by-side'. Therefore, with broadband access becoming standard for households and enterprises alike, distributed virtual reality environments have great potential to contribute to enabling stakeholder participation and mutual learning within the planning context.

Keywords: 3D, communication, geographical information systems, planning, public participation, virtual reality, visualisation.

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Authors: Hossein Amoozad Khalili, Anahita Maleki

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Normally business changes are made in order to change a level of activity in some way, whether it is sales, cash flow, productivity, or product portfolio. When attempts are made to make such changes, too often the business reverts to the old levels of activity as soon as management attention is diverted. Risk management is a field of growing interest to project managers as well as in general business and organizational management. There are several approaches used to manage risk in projects and this paper is a brief outline of some that you might encounter, with an indication of their strengths and weaknesses.

Keywords: Risk Management, Project Management, Scheduling, Planning

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Authors: Vincenzo Capalbo, Gianpaolo Ghiani, Emanuele Manni

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Global e-commerce sales have reached unprecedented levels in the past few years. As this trend is only predicted to go up as we continue into the ’20s, new challenges will be faced by companies when planning and controlling e-commerce logistics. In this paper, we survey the related literature on Optimization and Machine Learning as well as on combined methodologies. We also identify the distinctive features of next-generation planning algorithms - namely scalability, model-and-run features and learning capabilities - that will be fundamental to cope with the scale and complexity of logistics in the next decade.

Keywords: e-Commerce, Logistics, Machine Learning, Optimization.

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Authors: Amir Lotfi, Seyed Hamid Hosseini

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During the recent past, due to the increase of electrical energy demand and governmental resources constraints in creating additional capacity in the generation, transmission, and distribution, privatization, and restructuring in electrical industry have been considered. So, in most of the countries, different parts of electrical industry like generation, transmission, and distribution have been separated in order to create competition. Considering these changes, environmental issues, energy growth, investment of private equity in energy generation units and difficulties of transmission lines expansion, distributed generation (DG) units have been used in power systems. Moreover, reduction in the need for transmission and distribution, the increase of reliability, improvement of power quality, and reduction of power loss have caused DG to be placed in power systems. On the other hand, considering low liquidity need, private investors tend to spend their money for DGs. In this project, the main goal is to offer an algorithm for planning and placing DGs in order to reduce the need for transmission and distribution network.

Keywords: Planning, transmission, distributed generation, power security, power systems.

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Authors: Bibhya Sharma, Jito Vanualailai, Jai Raj

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In this paper, we propose a solution to the motion planning and control problem for a swarm of three-dimensional boids. The swarm exhibit collective emergent behaviors within the vicinity of the workspace. The capability of biological systems to autonomously maneuver, track and pursue evasive targets in a cluttered environment is vastly superior to any engineered system. It is considered an emergent behavior arising from simple rules that are followed by individuals and may not involve any central coordination. A generalized, yet scalable algorithm for attraction to the centroid and inter-individual swarm avoidance is proposed. We present a set of new continuous time-invariant velocity control laws, formulated via the Lyapunov-based control scheme for target attraction and collision avoidance. The controllers provide a collision-free trajectory. The control laws proposed in this paper also ensures practical stability of the system. The effectiveness of the control laws is demonstrated via computer simulations.

Keywords: Swarm, Practical stability, Motion planning.

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Authors: Johannes T. Tsoku, Teboho J. Mosikari, Diteboho Xaba, Thatoyaone Modise

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This paper examines the relationship between manufacturing growth and economic growth in South Africa using quarterly data ranging from 2001 to 2014. The paper employed the Johansen cointegration to test the Kaldor’s hypothesis. The Johansen cointegration results revealed that there is a long run relationship between GDP, manufacturing, service and employment. The Granger causality results revealed that there is a unidirectional causality running from manufacturing growth to GDP growth. The overall findings of the study confirm that Kaldor’s first law of growth is applicable in South African economy. Therefore, investment strategies and policies should be alignment towards promoting growth in the manufacturing sector in order to boost the economic growth of South Africa.

Keywords: Cointegration, economic growth, Kaldor’s law, manufacturing growth.

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Authors: K. Assis, K. P. Chong, A. S. Idris, C. M. Ho

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Oil palm or Elaeis guineensis is considered as the golden crop in Malaysia. But oil palm industry in this country is now facing with the most devastating disease called as Ganoderma Basal Stem Rot disease. The objective of this paper is to analyze the economic loss due to this disease. There were three commercial oil palm sites selected for collecting the required data for economic analysis. Yield parameter used to measure the loss was the total weight of fresh fruit bunch in six months. The predictors include disease severity, change in disease severity, number of infected neighbor palms, age of palm, planting generation, topography, and first order interaction variables. The estimation model of yield loss was identified by using backward elimination based regression method. Diagnostic checking was conducted on the residual of the best yield loss model. The value of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was used to measure the forecast performance of the model. The best yield loss model was then used to estimate the economic loss by using the current monthly price of fresh fruit bunch at mill gate.

Keywords: Ganoderma, oil palm, regression model, yield loss, economic loss.

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