Search results for: Cost Estimation and Payment System

Authors: Hany Mahgoub

Abstract:

This paper presents a system for discovering association rules from collections of unstructured documents called EART (Extract Association Rules from Text). The EART system treats texts only not images or figures. EART discovers association rules amongst keywords labeling the collection of textual documents. The main characteristic of EART is that the system integrates XML technology (to transform unstructured documents into structured documents) with Information Retrieval scheme (TF-IDF) and Data Mining technique for association rules extraction. EART depends on word feature to extract association rules. It consists of four phases: structure phase, index phase, text mining phase and visualization phase. Our work depends on the analysis of the keywords in the extracted association rules through the co-occurrence of the keywords in one sentence in the original text and the existing of the keywords in one sentence without co-occurrence. Experiments applied on a collection of scientific documents selected from MEDLINE that are related to the outbreak of H5N1 avian influenza virus.

Keywords: Association rules, information retrieval, knowledgediscovery in text, text mining.

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Authors: Claudia L. Zuñiga, Andres F. Millan, Jose L. Abadia, Monica Lora, Andres Navarro, Juan C. Burguillo, Pedro S. Rodriguez

Abstract:

The increasing popularity of wireless technologies and mobile computing devices has enabled new application areas and research. One of these new areas is pervasive systems in urban environments, because urban environments are characterized by high concentration of these technologies and devices. In this paper we will show the process of pervasive system design in urban environments, using as use case a local zoo in Cali, Colombia. Based on an ethnographic studio, we present the design of a pervasive system for urban computing based on service oriented architecture to controlled environment of Cali Zoo. In this paper, the reader will find a methodological approach for the design of similar systems, using data collection methods, conceptual frameworks for urban environments and considerations of analysis and design of service oriented systems.

Keywords: Service Oriented Architecture, Urban Computing, Design of pervasive systems for urban environments, PSP Design Framework (Public Social Private), Cali Zoo.

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Authors: K. Prajindra Sankar, S.K. Tiong, S.P. Johnny Koh

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This paper presents a tested research concept that implements a complex evolutionary algorithm, genetic algorithm (GA), in a multi-microcontroller environment. Parallel Distributed Genetic Algorithm (PDGA) is employed in adaptive beam forming technique to reduce power usage of adaptive antenna at WCDMA base station. Adaptive antenna has dynamic beam that requires more advanced beam forming algorithm such as genetic algorithm which requires heavy computation and memory space. Microcontrollers are low resource platforms that are normally not associated with GAs, which are typically resource intensive. The aim of this project was to design a cooperative multiprocessor system by expanding the role of small scale PIC microcontrollers to optimize WCDMA base station transmitter power. Implementation results have shown that PDGA multi-microcontroller system returned optimal transmitted power compared to conventional GA.

Keywords: Microcontroller, Genetic Algorithm, Adaptiveantenna, Power optimization.

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Authors: A. Bulatbayeva, A. Kusainov

Abstract:

In this article has been analyzed Kazakhstani experience in organizing the system after the institute of higher education, legislative-regulative assurance of master preparation, and statistic data in the republic. Have been the features of projecting the master programs, a condition of realization of studying credit system, have been analyzed the technologies of research teaching masters. In conclusion have been given some recommendation on creating personal-oriented environment of research teaching masters.

Keywords: Personal-oriented Environment, Research Teaching, Research Activity, the Technologies of Research Teaching

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Authors: Chinmay Soman, Hrishikesh Pathak, Vishal Shah, Aniket Padhye, Amey Inamdar

Abstract:

Phishing, or stealing of sensitive information on the web, has dealt a major blow to Internet Security in recent times. Most of the existing anti-phishing solutions fail to handle the fuzziness involved in phish detection, thus leading to a large number of false positives. This fuzziness is attributed to the use of highly flexible and at the same time, highly ambiguous HTML language. We introduce a new perspective against phishing, that tries to systematically prove, whether a given page is phished or not, using the corresponding original page as the basis of the comparison. It analyzes the layout of the pages under consideration to determine the percentage distortion between them, indicative of any form of malicious alteration. The system design represents an intelligent system, employing dynamic assessment which accurately identifies brand new phishing attacks and will prove effective in reducing the number of false positives. This framework could potentially be used as a knowledge base, in educating the internet users against phishing.

Keywords: World Wide Web, Phishing, Internet security, data mining.

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Authors: H. K. Sachidananda, K. Raghunandana, B. Shivamurthy

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The estimation of gear tooth stiffness is important for finding the load distribution between the gear teeth when two consecutive sets of teeth are in contact. Based on dynamic model a C-program has been developed to compute mesh stiffness. By using this program position dependent mesh stiffness of spur gear tooth for various profile shifts have been computed for a fixed center distance and altering tooth-sum gearing (100 by ± 4%). It is found that the C-program using dynamic model is one of the rapid soft computing technique which helps in design of gears. The mesh tooth stiffness along the path of contact is studied for both 20° and 25° pressure angle gears at various profile shifts. Better tooth stiffness is noticed in case of negative alteration tooth-sum gears compared to standard and positive alteration tooth-sum gears. Also, in case of negative alteration tooth-sum gearing better mesh stiffness is noticed in 20° pressure angle when compared to 25°.

Keywords: Altered tooth-sum gearing, bending fatigue, mesh stiffness, spur gear.

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Authors: M. H. Hairi, H. Zainuddin, M.H.N. Talib, A. Khamis, J. Y. Lichun

Abstract:

Short circuit currents plays a vital role in influencing the design and operation of equipment and power system and could not be avoided despite careful planning and design, good maintenance and thorough operation of the system. This paper discusses the short circuit analysis conducted in KSO briefly comprising of its significances, methods and results. A result sample of the analysis based on a single transformer is detailed in this paper. Furthermore, the results of the analysis and its significances were also discussed and commented.

Keywords: Short circuit currents, Transformer fault current

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Authors: Liang Zhao, Feng Wang, Bo Deng, Bo Yang

Abstract:

Software testability is proposed to address the problem of increasing cost of test and the quality of software. Testability measure provides a quantified way to denote the testability of software. Since 1990s, many testability measure models are proposed to address the problem. By discussing the contradiction between domain testability and domain range ratio (DRR), a new testability measure, semantic fault distance, is proposed. Its validity is discussed.

Keywords: Software testability, DRR, Domain testability.

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Authors: Masood Karamoozian, Zhang Hong

Abstract:

The necessity and complexity of the decision-making process and the interference of the various factors to make decisions and consider all the relevant factors in a problem are very obvious nowadays. Hence, researchers show their interest in multi-criteria decision-making methods. In this research, the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), Simple Additive Weighting (SAW), and Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) methods of multi-criteria decision-making have been used to solve the problem of optimal construction systems. Systems being evaluated in this problem include; Light Steel Frames (LSF), a case study of designs by Zhang Hong studio in the Southeast University of Nanjing, Insulating Concrete Form (ICF), Ordinary Construction System (OCS), and Precast Concrete System (PRCS) as another case study designs in Zhang Hong studio in the Southeast University of Nanjing. Crowdsourcing was done by using a questionnaire at the sample level (200 people). Questionnaires were distributed among experts in university centers and conferences. According to the results of the research, the use of different methods of decision-making led to relatively the same results. In this way, with the use of all three multi-criteria decision-making methods mentioned above, the PRCS was in the first rank, and the LSF system ranked second. Also, the PRCS, in terms of performance standards and economics, was ranked first, and the LSF system was allocated the first rank in terms of environmental standards.

Keywords: Multi-criteria decision making, AHP, SAW, TOPSIS.

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Authors: Aws Al-azawi, John Soraghan

Abstract:

There is a growing interest in the use of ultrasonic speckle tracking for biomedical image formation of tissue deformation. Speckle tracking is angle independent and has an ability to differentiate soft tissue into benign and malignant regions. In this paper a simulation model for dynamic ultrasound scatterer is presented. The model composes Field-II ultrasonic scatterers and FEM (ANSYS-11) nodes as a regional tissue deformation. A performance evaluation is presented on axial displacement and strain fields estimation of a uniformly elastic model, using speckle tracking based 1D cross-correlation of optimally segmented pre and post-deformation frames. Optimum correlation window length is investigated in terms of highest signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) for a selected region of interest of a smoothed displacement field. Finally, gradient based strain field of both smoothed and non-smoothed displacement fields are compared. Simulation results from the model are shown to compare favorably with FEM results.

Keywords: Speckle tracking, tissue deformation, ultrasonic simulation.

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Authors: Huaiyu Zhang

Abstract:

The method of modeling is the key technology for digital mockup (DMU). Based upon the developing for mechanical product DMU, the theory, method and approach for virtual environment (VE) and virtual object (VO) were studied. This paper has expounded the design goal and architecture of DMU system, analyzed the method of DMU application, and researched the general process of physics modeling and behavior modeling.

Keywords: DMU, VR, virtual environment, virtual object, physics modeling, behavior modeling

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Authors: Mohamad Sukeri Khalid, Che Su Mustaffa, Mohd Najib Marzuki, Mohd Fo’ad Sakdan, Sapora Sipon, Mohd Taib Ariffin, Shazwani Shafiai

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This paper describes the issues relating to the role of the flash flood early warning system provided by the Malaysian Government to the communities in Malaysia, specifically during the flash flood disaster in the Cameron Highlands, Malaysia. Normally, flash flood disasters can occur as a result of heavy rainfall in an area, and that water may possibly cause flooding via streams or narrow channels. The focus of this study is the flash flood disaster which occurred on 23 October 2013 in the Cameron Highlands, and as a result the Sungai Bertam overflowed after the release of water from the Sultan Abu Bakar Dam. This release of water from the dam caused flash flooding which led to damage to properties and also the death of residents and livestock in the area. Therefore, the effort of this study is to identify the perceptions of the flash flood victims on the role of the flash flood early warning system. For the purposes of this study, data were gathered through face-to-face interviews from those flood victims who were willing to participate in this study. This approach helped the researcher to glean in-depth information about their feelings and perceptions of the role of the flash flood early warning system offered by the government. The data were analysed descriptively and the findings show that the respondents of 22 flood victims believe strongly that the flash flood early warning system was confusing and dysfunctional, and communities had failed to response positively to it. Therefore, most of the communities were not well prepared for the releasing of water from the dam which caused property damage, and 3 people were killed in the Cameron Highland flash flood disaster.

Keywords: Communities affected, disaster management, early warning system, flash flood disaster.

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Authors: Christian Mayr, Matthias Ehrlich, Stephan Henker, Karsten Wendt, René Schüffny

Abstract:

Traditionally, VLSI implementations of spiking neural nets have featured large neuron counts for fixed computations or small exploratory, configurable nets. This paper presents the system architecture of a large configurable neural net system employing a dedicated mapping algorithm for projecting the targeted biology-analog nets and dynamics onto the hardware with its attendant constraints.

Keywords: Large scale VLSI neural net, topology mapping, complex pulse communication.

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Authors: Mahboubeh Molaei

Abstract:

Transferring information developed by other peoples is an ordinary event that happens during daily conversations, for example when employees sea each other in the organization, or when they are having lunch together, or attending a meeting, they use to talk about their experience, and discuss about their current projects, and talk about their successes over some specific problems. Despite the potential value of leveraging organizational memory and expertise by using OMS and ER, still small organizations haven-t been able to capitalize on its promised value. Each organization has its internal knowledge management system, in some of organizations the system face the lack of expert people to save their experience in the repository and in another hand on some other organizations there are lots of expert people but the organization doesn-t have the maximum use of their knowledge.

Keywords: Knowledge, knowledge management.

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Authors: P.Varzakas

Abstract:

In this paper, an accurate theoretical analysis for the achievable average channel capacity (in the Shannon sense) per user of a hybrid cellular direct-sequence/fast frequency hopping code-division multiple-access (DS/FFH-CDMA) system operating in a Rayleigh fading environment is presented. The analysis covers the downlink operation and leads to the derivation of an exact mathematical expression between the normalized average channel capacity available to each system-s user, under simultaneous optimal power and rate adaptation and the system-s parameters, as the number of hops per bit, the processing gain applied, the number of users per cell and the received signal-tonoise power ratio over the signal bandwidth. Finally, numerical results are presented to illustrate the proposed mathematical analysis.

Keywords: Shannon capacity, adaptive systems, code-division multiple access, fading channels.

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Authors: Baseem Khan, Ganga Agnihotri

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Restructuring of Electricity supply industry introduced many issues such as transmission pricing, transmission loss allocation and congestion management. Many methodologies and algorithms were proposed for addressing these issues. In this paper a power flow tracing based method is proposed which involves Matrices methodology for the transmission usage and loss allocation for generators and demands. This method provides loss allocation in a direct way because all the computation is previously done for usage allocation. The proposed method is simple and easy to implement in a large power system. Further it is less computational because it requires matrix inversion only a single time. After usage and loss allocation cooperative game theory is applied to results for finding efficient economic signals. Nucleolus and Shapely value approach is used for optimal allocation of results. Results are shown for the IEEE 6 bus system and IEEE 14 bus system.

Keywords: Modified Kirchhoff Matrix, Power flow tracing, Transmission Pricing, Transmission Loss Allocation.

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Authors: Kyung-Jung Lee, Young-Hun Ki, Hyun-Sik Ahn

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In this paper, we propose a hardware and software design method for automotive Electronic Control Units (ECU) considering the functional safety. The proposed ECU is considered for the application to Electro-Mechanical Actuator systems and the validity of the design method is shown by the application to the Electro-Mechanical Brake (EMB) control system which is used as a brake actuator in Brake-By-Wire (BBW) systems. The importance of a functional safety-based design approach to EMB ECU design has been emphasized because of its safety-critical functions, which are executed with the aid of many electric actuators, sensors, and application software. Based on hazard analysis and risk assessment according to ISO26262, the EMB system should be ASIL-D-compliant, the highest ASIL level. To this end, an external signature watchdog and an Infineon 32-bit microcontroller TriCore are used to reduce risks considering common-cause hardware failure. Moreover, a software design method is introduced for implementing functional safety-oriented monitoring functions based on an asymmetric dual core architecture considering redundancy and diversity. The validity of the proposed ECU design approach is verified by using the EMB Hardware-In-the-Loop (HILS) system, which consists of the EMB assembly, actuator ECU, a host PC, and a few debugging devices. Furthermore, it is shown that the existing sensor fault tolerant control system can be used more effectively for mitigating the effects of hardware and software faults by applying the proposed ECU design method.

Keywords: BBW (Brake-By-wire), EMB (Electro-Mechanical Brake), Functional Safety, ISO26262.

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Authors: Hee Suk Seo, Tae Kyung Kim

Abstract:

Adapting wireless devices to communicate within grid networks empowers us by providing range of possibilities.. These devices create a mechanism for consumers and publishers to create modern networks with or without peer device utilization. Emerging mobile networks creates new challenges in the areas of reliability, security, and adaptability. In this paper, we propose a system encompassing mobility management using AAA context transfer for mobile grid networks. This system ultimately results in seamless task processing and reduced packet loss, communication delays, bandwidth, and errors.

Keywords: Mobile Grid, AAA, Mobility Management.

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Authors: Doaa M. Atia, Faten H. Fahmy, Ninet M. Ahmed, Hassen T. Dorrah

Abstract:

Fuel cells have become one of the major areas of research in the academia and the industry. The goal of most fish farmers is to maximize production and profits while holding labor and management efforts to the minimum. Risk of fish kills, disease outbreaks, poor water quality in most pond culture operations, aeration offers the most immediate and practical solution to water quality problems encountered at higher stocking and feeding rates. Many units of aeration system are electrical units so using a continuous, high reliability, affordable, and environmentally friendly power sources is necessary. Aeration of water by using PEM fuel cell power is not only a new application of the renewable energy, but also, it provides an affordable method to promote biodiversity in stagnant ponds and lakes. This paper presents a new design and control of PEM fuel cell powered a diffused air aeration system for a shrimp farm in Mersa Matruh in Egypt. Also Artificial intelligence (AI) techniques control is used to control the fuel cell output power by control input gases flow rate. Moreover the mathematical modeling and simulation of PEM fuel cell is introduced. A comparison study is applied between the performance of fuzzy logic control (FLC) and neural network control (NNC). The results show the effectiveness of NNC over FLC.

Keywords: PEM fuel cell, Diffused aeration system, Artificialintelligence (AI) techniques, neural network control, fuzzy logiccontrol

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Authors: Farag Ahwide, Souhel Bousheha

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A technical assessment has been made of electricity generation, considering wind turbines ranging between Vestas (V80-2.0 MW and V112-3.0 MW) and the air density is equal to 1.225 Kg/m3, at different towns in Libya. Wind speed might have been measured each 3 hours during 10 m stature at a time for 10 quite sometime between 2000 Furthermore 2009, these towns which are spotted on the bank from claiming Mediterranean ocean also how in the desert, which need aid Derna 1, Derna 2, Shahat, Benghazi, Ajdabya, Sirte, Misurata, Tripoli-Airport, Al-Zawya, Al-Kofra, Sabha, Nalut. The work presented long term "wind data analysis in terms of annual, seasonal, monthly and diurnal variations at these sites. Wind power density with different heights has been studied. Excel sheet program was used to calculate the values of wind power density and the values of wind speed frequency for the stations; their seasonally values have been estimated. Limit variable with rated wind pace to 10 different wind turbines need to be been estimated, which is used to focus those required yearly vitality yield of a wind vitality change framework (WECS), acknowledging wind turbines extending between 600 kW and 3000 kW).

Keywords: Energy yield, wind turbines, wind speed, wind power density.

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Authors: Rania Minkara, Jean-Pierre Dubois

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The major problem that wireless communication systems undergo is multipath fading caused by scattering of the transmitted signal. However, we can treat multipath propagation as multiple channels between the transmitter and receiver to improve the signal-to-scattering-noise ratio. While using Single Input Multiple Output (SIMO) systems, the diversity receivers extract multiple signal branches or copies of the same signal received from different channels and apply gain combining schemes such as Root Mean Square Gain Combining (RMSGC). RMSGC asymptotically yields an identical performance to that of the theoretically optimal Maximum Ratio Combining (MRC) for values of mean Signal-to- Noise-Ratio (SNR) above a certain threshold value without the need for SNR estimation. This paper introduces an improvement of RMSGC using two different issues. We found that post-detection and de-noising the received signals improve the performance of RMSGC and lower the threshold SNR.

Keywords: Bit error rate, de-noising, pre-detection, root-meansquare gain combining, single-input multiple-output channels.

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Authors: S. Mahmoodzadeh, J. Shahrabi, M. Pariazar, M. S. Zaeri

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In this article, by using fuzzy AHP and TOPSIS technique we propose a new method for project selection problem. After reviewing four common methods of comparing alternatives investment (net present value, rate of return, benefit cost analysis and payback period) we use them as criteria in AHP tree. In this methodology by utilizing improved Analytical Hierarchy Process by Fuzzy set theory, first we try to calculate weight of each criterion. Then by implementing TOPSIS algorithm, assessment of projects has been done. Obtained results have been tested in a numerical example.

Keywords: Fuzzy AHP, Project Selection, TOPSIS Technique.

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Authors: Zulaiha Ali Othman, Helmi Md Rais, Abdul Razak Hamdan

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Ants are fascinating creatures that demonstrate the ability to find food and bring it back to their nest. Their ability as a colony, to find paths to food sources has inspired the development of algorithms known as Ant Colony Systems (ACS). The principle of cooperation forms the backbone of such algorithms, commonly used to find solutions to problems such as the Traveling Salesman Problem (TSP). Ants communicate to each other through chemical substances called pheromones. Modeling individual ants- ability to manipulate this substance can help an ACS find the best solution. This paper introduces a Dynamic Ant Colony System with threelevel updates (DACS3) that enhance an existing ACS. Experiments were conducted to observe single ant behavior in a colony of Malaysian House Red Ants. Such behavior was incorporated into the DACS3 algorithm. We benchmark the performance of DACS3 versus DACS on TSP instances ranging from 14 to 100 cities. The result shows that the DACS3 algorithm can achieve shorter distance in most cases and also performs considerably faster than DACS.

Keywords: Dynamic Ant Colony System (DACS), TravelingSalesmen Problem (TSP), Optimization, Swarm Intelligent.

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Authors: Papon Thamvasupong, Kwanchanok Viravaidya-Pasuwat

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Osteoarthritis affects a lot of people worldwide. Local injection of glucosamine is one of the alternative treatment methods to replenish the natural lubrication of cartilage. However, multiple injections can potentially lead to possible bacterial infection. Therefore, a drug delivery system is desired to reduce the frequencies of injections. A hydrogel is one of the delivery systems that can control the release of drugs. Thermo-reversible hydrogels can be beneficial to the drug delivery system especially in the local injection route because this formulation can change from liquid to gel after getting into human body. Once the gel is in the body, it will slowly release the drug in a controlled manner. In this study, various formulations of Pluronic-based hydrogels were synthesized for the controlled release of glucosamine. One of the challenges of the Pluronic controlled release system is its fast dissolution rate. To overcome this problem, alginate and calcium sulfate (CaSO₄) were added to the polymer solution. The characteristics of the hydrogels were investigated including the gelation temperature, gelation time, hydrogel dissolution and glucosamine release mechanism. Finally, a mathematical model of glucosamine release from Pluronic-alginate-hyaluronic acid hydrogel was developed. Our results have shown that crosslinking Pluronic gel with alginate did not significantly extend the dissolution rate of the gel. Moreover, the gel dissolution profiles and the glucosamine release mechanisms were best described using the zeroth-order kinetic model, indicating that the release of glucosamine was primarily governed by the gel dissolution.

Keywords: Controlled release, drug delivery system, glucosamine, Pluronic® F-127, thermoreversible hydrogel.

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Authors: Sunan Payungsak, Atchana Wongchaisuwat, Ladda Meesuk

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Sulfide ion (S2-) is one of the most important ions to be monitored due to its high toxicity, especially for aquatic organisms. In this work, [Ca(2,2'-bipyridine)3]2+-intercalated montmorillonite was prepared and used as a sensor to construct a potentiometric electrode to measure sulfide ion in solution. The formation of [Ca(2,2'- bipyridine)3]2+ in montmorillonite was confirmed by Fourier Transform Infrared spectra. The electrode worked well at pH 4-12 and 4-10 in sulfide solution 10-2 M and 10-3 M, respectively, in terms of Nernstian slope. The sensor gave good precision and low cost.

Keywords: 2, 2'-bipyridine complexes, montmorillonite potentiometry, sulfide ion.

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Authors: Shin Je Lee, Go Bong Choi, Jeong Cheol Seo, Jong Min Lee, Gibaek Lee

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Water pipe network is installed underground and once equipped, it is difficult to recognize the state of pipes when the leak or burst happens. Accordingly, post management is often delayed after the fault occurs. Therefore, the systematic fault management system of water pipe network is required to prevent the accident and minimize the loss. In this work, we develop online fault detection system of water pipe network using data of pipes such as flow rate or pressure. The transient model describing water flow in pipelines is presented and simulated using MATLAB. The fault situations such as the leak or burst can be also simulated and flow rate or pressure data when the fault happens are collected. Faults are detected using statistical methods of fast Fourier transform and discrete wavelet transform, and they are compared to find which method shows the better fault detection performance.

Keywords: fault detection, water pipeline model, fast Fourier transform, discrete wavelet transform.

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Authors: Arda Yunianta, Norazah Yusof, Mohd Shahizan Othman, Dewi Octaviani

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Learning is the acquisition of new mental schemata, knowledge, abilities and skills which can be used to solve problems potentially more successfully. The learning process is optimum when it is assisted and personalized. Learning is not a single activity, but should involve many possible activities to make learning become meaningful. Many e-learning applications provide facilities to support teaching and learning activities. One way to identify whether the e-learning system is being used by the learners is through the number of hits that can be obtained from the e-learning system's log data. However, we cannot rely solely to the number of hits in order to determine whether learning had occurred meaningfully. This is due to the fact that meaningful learning should engage five characteristics namely active, constructive, intentional, authentic and cooperative. This paper aims to analyze the e-learning activities that is meaningful to learning. By focusing on the meaningful learning characteristics, we match it to the corresponding Moodle e-learning activities. This analysis discovers the activities that have high impact to meaningful learning, as well as activities that are less meaningful. The high impact activities is given high weights since it become important to meaningful learning, while the low impact has less weight and said to be supportive e-learning activities. The result of this analysis helps us categorize which e-learning activities that are meaningful to learning and guide us to measure the effectiveness of e-learning usage.

Keywords: e-learning system, e-learning activity, meaningful learning characteristics, Moodle

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Authors: Milan Rippel, Petr Teply

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This paper focuses on operational risk measurement techniques and on economic capital estimation methods. A data sample of operational losses provided by an anonymous Central European bank is analyzed using several approaches. Loss Distribution Approach and scenario analysis method are considered. Custom plausible loss events defined in a particular scenario are merged with the original data sample and their impact on capital estimates and on the financial institution is evaluated. Two main questions are assessed – What is the most appropriate statistical method to measure and model operational loss data distribution? and What is the impact of hypothetical plausible events on the financial institution? The g&h distribution was evaluated to be the most suitable one for operational risk modeling. The method based on the combination of historical loss events modeling and scenario analysis provides reasonable capital estimates and allows for the measurement of the impact of extreme events on banking operations.

Keywords: operational risk, scenario analysis, economic capital, loss distribution approach, extreme value theory, stress testing

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Authors: Kristjan Kuhi, Kati K. Kaare, Ott Koppel

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Modern management in most fields is performance based; both planning and implementation of maintenance and operational activities are driven by appropriately defined performance indicators. Continuous real-time data collection for management is becoming feasible due to technological advancements. Outdated and insufficient input data may result in incorrect decisions. When using deterministic models the uncertainty of the object state is not visible thus applying the deterministic models are more likely to give false diagnosis. Constructing structured probabilistic models of the performance indicators taking into consideration the surrounding indicator environment enables to estimate the trustworthiness of the indicator values. It also assists to fill gaps in data to improve the quality of the performance analysis and management decisions. In this paper authors discuss the application of probabilistic graphical models in the road performance measurement and propose a high-level conceptual model that enables analyzing and predicting more precisely future pavement deterioration based on road utilization.

Keywords: Probabilistic graphical models, performance indicators, road performance management, data collection

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Authors: Juan Portoviejo Brito, Daniel Icaza Alvarez, Christian Castro Samaniego

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In this article, we present the modeling, simulations, and energy conversion analysis of the solar-wind system for the Quingeo Heritage Center in Ecuador. A numerical model was constructed based on the 19 equations, it was coded in MATLAB R2017a, and the results were compared with the experimental data of the site. The model is built with the purpose of using it as a computer development for the optimization of resources and designs of hybrid systems in the Parish of Quingeo and its surroundings. The model obtained a fairly similar pattern compared to the data and curves obtained in the field experimentally and detailed in manuscript. It is important to indicate that this analysis has been carried out so that in the near future one or two of these power generation systems can be exploited in a massive way according to the budget assigned by the Parish GAD of Quingeo or other national or international organizations with the purpose of preserving this unique colonial helmet in Ecuador.

Keywords: Hybrid system, wind turbine, modeling, simulation, Smart Grid, Quingeo Azuay Ecuador.

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