Search results for: Time series model.

Authors: Faramarz Khosravi, Gokhan Izbirak

Abstract:

A weighted statistical stochastic based Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) model for modeling the potential barriers and enablers of sustainability for measuring and assessing the sustainability level is proposed. For context-dependent potential barriers and enablers, the proposed model takes the basis of the properties of the variables describing the sustainability functions and was developed into a realistic analytical model for the sustainable behavior of an organization. This thus serves as a means for measuring the sustainability of the organization. The main focus of this paper was the application of the AHP tool in a statistically-based model for measuring sustainability. Hence a strong weighted stochastic AHP based procedure was achieved. A case study scenario of a widely reported major Canadian electric utility was adopted to demonstrate the applicability of the developed model and comparatively examined its results with those of an equal-weighted model method. Variations in the sustainability of a company, as fluctuations, were figured out during the time. In the results obtained, sustainability index for successive years changed form 73.12%, 79.02%, 74.31%, 76.65%, 80.49%, 79.81%, 79.83% to more exact values 73.32%, 77.72%, 76.76%, 79.41%, 81.93%, 79.72%, and 80,45% according to priorities of factors that have found by expert views, respectively. By obtaining relatively necessary informative measurement indicators, the model can practically and effectively evaluate the sustainability extent of any organization and also to determine fluctuations in the organization over time.

Keywords: AHP, sustainability fluctuation, environmental indicators, performance measurement, environmental sustainability.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 925

Authors: Anis Gharbi

Abstract:

This paper considers the problem of scheduling maintenance actions for identical aircraft gas turbine engines. Each one of the turbines consists of parts which frequently require replacement. A finite inventory of spare parts is available and all parts are ready for replacement at any time. The inventory consists of both new and refurbished parts. Hence, these parts have different field lives. The goal is to find a replacement part sequencing that maximizes the time that the aircraft will keep functioning before the inventory is replenished. The problem is formulated as an identical parallel machine scheduling problem where the minimum completion time has to be maximized. Two models have been developed. The first one is an optimization model which is based on a 0-1 linear programming formulation, while the second one is an approximate procedure which consists in decomposing the problem into several two-machine subproblems. Each subproblem is optimally solved using the first model. Both models have been implemented using Lingo and have been tested on two sets of randomly generated data with up to 150 parts and 10 turbines. Experimental results show that the optimization model is able to solve only instances with no more than 4 turbines, while the decomposition procedure often provides near-optimal solutions within a maximum CPU time of 3 seconds.

Keywords: Aircraft turbines, Scheduling, Identical parallel machines, 0-1 linear programming, Heuristic.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2002

Authors: Z. Feng, V. Viswanathan, D. Navarro, I. O'Connor

Abstract:

This paper presents a new high speed simulation methodology to solve the long simulation time problem of CMOS image sensor matrix. Generally, for integrating the pixel matrix in SOC and simulating the system performance, designers try to model the pixel in various modeling languages such as VHDL-AMS, SystemC or Matlab. We introduce a new alternative method based on spice model in cadence design platform to achieve accuracy and reduce simulation time. The simulation results indicate that the pixel output voltage maximum error is at 0.7812% and time consumption reduces from 2.2 days to 13 minutes achieving about 240X speed-up for the 256x256 pixel matrix.

Keywords: CMOS image sensor, high speed simulation, image sensor matrix simulation.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2013

Authors: Ing-Jr Ding

Abstract:

This paper presents a technical speaker adaptation method called WMLLR, which is based on maximum likelihood linear regression (MLLR). In MLLR, a linear regression-based transform which adapted the HMM mean vectors was calculated to maximize the likelihood of adaptation data. In this paper, the prior knowledge of the initial model is adequately incorporated into the adaptation. A series of speaker adaptation experiments are carried out at a 30 famous city names database to investigate the efficiency of the proposed method. Experimental results show that the WMLLR method outperforms the conventional MLLR method, especially when only few utterances from a new speaker are available for adaptation.

Keywords: hidden Markov model, maximum likelihood linearregression, speech recognition, speaker adaptation.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1842

Authors: Md. Ashikur Rahman Khan, M. M. Rahman, K. Kadirgama, M.A. Maleque, Rosli A. Bakar

Abstract:

Conventionally the selection of parameters depends intensely on the operator-s experience or conservative technological data provided by the EDM equipment manufacturers that assign inconsistent machining performance. The parameter settings given by the manufacturers are only relevant with common steel grades. A single parameter change influences the process in a complex way. Hence, the present research proposes artificial neural network (ANN) models for the prediction of surface roughness on first commenced Ti-15-3 alloy in electrical discharge machining (EDM) process. The proposed models use peak current, pulse on time, pulse off time and servo voltage as input parameters. Multilayer perceptron (MLP) with three hidden layer feedforward networks are applied. An assessment is carried out with the models of distinct hidden layer. Training of the models is performed with data from an extensive series of experiments utilizing copper electrode as positive polarity. The predictions based on the above developed models have been verified with another set of experiments and are found to be in good agreement with the experimental results. Beside this they can be exercised as precious tools for the process planning for EDM.

Keywords: Ti-15l-3, surface roughness, copper, positive polarity, multi-layered perceptron.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1907

Authors: M.Saleem Khan, Khaled Benkrid

Abstract:

This paper presents a time control liquids mixing system in the tanks as an application of fuzzy time control discrete model. The system is designed for a wide range of industrial applications. The simulation design of control system has three inputs: volume, viscosity, and selection of product, along with the three external control adjustments for the system calibration or to take over the control of the system autonomously in local or distributed environment. There are four controlling elements: rotatory motor, grinding motor, heating and cooling units, and valves selection, each with time frame limit. The system consists of three controlled variables measurement through its sensing mechanism for feed back control. This design also facilitates the liquids mixing system to grind certain materials in tanks and mix with fluids under required temperature controlled environment to achieve certain viscous level. Design of: fuzzifier, inference engine, rule base, deffuzifiers, and discrete event control system, is discussed. Time control fuzzy rules are formulated, applied and tested using MATLAB simulation for the system.

Keywords: Fuzzy time control, industrial application and timecontrol systems, adjustment of Fuzzy system, liquids mixing system, design of fuzzy time control DEV system.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2550

Authors: Takashi Shimizu, Tomoaki Hashimoto

Abstract:

A class of implicit systems is known as a more generalized class of systems than a class of explicit systems. To establish a control method for such a generalized class of systems, we adopt model predictive control method which is a kind of optimal feedback control with a performance index that has a moving initial time and terminal time. However, model predictive control method is inapplicable to systems whose all state variables are not exactly known. In other words, model predictive control method is inapplicable to systems with limited measurable states. In fact, it is usual that the state variables of systems are measured through outputs, hence, only limited parts of them can be used directly. It is also usual that output signals are disturbed by process and sensor noises. Hence, it is important to establish a state estimation method for nonlinear implicit systems with taking the process noise and sensor noise into consideration. To this purpose, we apply the model predictive control method and unscented Kalman filter for solving the optimization and estimation problems of nonlinear implicit systems, respectively. The objective of this study is to establish a model predictive control with unscented Kalman filter for nonlinear implicit systems.

Keywords: Model predictive control, unscented Kalman filter, nonlinear systems, implicit systems.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 948

Authors: S. Grishin

Abstract:

This article is dedicated to development of mathematical models for determining the dynamics of concentration of hazardous substances in urban turbulent atmosphere. Development of the mathematical models implied taking into account the time-space variability of the fields of meteorological items and such turbulent atmosphere data as vortex nature, nonlinear nature, dissipativity and diffusivity. Knowing the turbulent airflow velocity is not assumed when developing the model. However, a simplified model implies that the turbulent and molecular diffusion ratio is a piecewise constant function that changes depending on vertical distance from the earth surface. Thereby an important assumption of vertical stratification of urban air due to atmospheric accumulation of hazardous substances emitted by motor vehicles is introduced into the mathematical model. The suggested simplified non-linear mathematical model of determining the sought exhaust concentration at a priori unknown turbulent flow velocity through non-degenerate transformation is reduced to the model which is subsequently solved analytically.

Keywords: Urban ecology, time-dependent mathematical model, exhaust concentration, turbulent and molecular diffusion, airflow velocity.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1411

Authors: Mansour Al Qubeissi, Sergei S. Sazhin, Cyril Crua, Morgan R. Heikal

Abstract:

This paper presents the application of the Discrete Component Model for heating and evaporation to multi-component biodiesel fuel droplets in direct injection internal combustion engines. This model takes into account the effects of temperature gradient, recirculation and species diffusion inside droplets. A distinctive feature of the model used in the analysis is that it is based on the analytical solutions to the temperature and species diffusion equations inside the droplets. Nineteen types of biodiesel fuels are considered. It is shown that a simplistic model, based on the approximation of biodiesel fuel by a single component or ignoring the diffusion of components of biodiesel fuel, leads to noticeable errors in predicted droplet evaporation time and time evolution of droplet surface temperature and radius.

Keywords: Heat/Mass Transfer, Biodiesel, Multi-component Fuel, Droplet, Evaporation.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2798

Authors: Ibrahim Shaker, Amr El Hossany, Moustafa Osman, Mohamed El Raey

Abstract:

This paper will explore integration model between GIS–SCADA system and enclosure quantification model to approach the impact of failure-safe event. There are real demands to identify spatial objects and improve control system performance. Nevertheless, the employed methodology is predicting electro-mechanic operations and corresponding time to environmental incident variations. Open processing, as object systems technology, is presented for integration enclosure database with minimal memory size and computation time via connectivity drivers such as ODBC:JDBC during main stages of GIS–SCADA connection. The function of Geographic Information System is manipulating power distribution in contrast to developing issues. In other ward, GIS-SCADA systems integration will require numerical objects of process to enable system model calibration and estimation demands, determine of past events for analysis and prediction of emergency situations for response training.

Keywords: Air dispersion model, integration power system, SCADA systems, GIS system, environmental management.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1546

Authors: Rahib Abiyev, Vasif H. Abiyev, C. Ardil

Abstract:

In this paper the development of neural network based fuzzy inference system for electricity consumption prediction is considered. The electricity consumption depends on number of factors, such as number of customers, seasons, type-s of customers, number of plants, etc. It is nonlinear process and can be described by chaotic time-series. The structure and algorithms of neuro-fuzzy system for predicting future values of electricity consumption is described. To determine the unknown coefficients of the system, the supervised learning algorithm is used. As a result of learning, the rules of neuro-fuzzy system are formed. The developed system is applied for predicting future values of electricity consumption of Northern Cyprus. The simulation of neuro-fuzzy system has been performed.

Keywords: Fuzzy logic, neural network, neuro-fuzzy system, neuro-fuzzy prediction.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2011

Authors: Akella Amarendra Babu, Rama Devi Yellasiri, Natukula Sainath

Abstract:

Where human beings can easily learn and adopt pronunciation variations, machines need training before put into use. Also humans keep minimum vocabulary and their pronunciation variations are stored in front-end of their memory for ready reference, while machines keep the entire pronunciation dictionary for ready reference. Supervised methods are used for preparation of pronunciation dictionaries which take large amounts of manual effort, cost, time and are not suitable for real time use. This paper presents an unsupervised adaptation model for building agile and dynamic pronunciation dictionaries online. These methods mimic human approach in learning the new pronunciations in real time. A new algorithm for measuring sound distances called Dynamic Phone Warping is presented and tested. Performance of the system is measured using an adaptation model and the precision metrics is found to be better than 86 percent.

Keywords: Pronunciation variations, dynamic programming, machine learning, natural language processing.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 800

Authors: Costas S. Iliopoulos, Spiros Michalakopoulos

Abstract:

A new, combinatorial model for analyzing and inter- preting an electrocardiogram (ECG) is presented. An application of the model is QRS peak detection. This is demonstrated with an online algorithm, which is shown to be space as well as time efficient. Experimental results on the MIT-BIH Arrhythmia database show that this novel approach is promising. Further uses for this approach are discussed, such as taking advantage of its small memory requirements and interpreting large amounts of pre-recorded ECG data.

Keywords: Combinatorics, ECG analysis, MIT-BIH Arrhythmia Database, QRS Detection, String Algorithms

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1939

Authors: Gulshan Sachdeva, Vaibhav Jain, S. S. Kachhwaha

Abstract:

Cascade refrigeration systems employ series of single stage vapor compression units which are thermally coupled with evaporator/condenser cascades. Different refrigerants are used in each of the circuit depending on the optimum characteristics shown by the refrigerant for a particular application. In the present research study, a steady state thermodynamic model is developed which simulates the working of an actual cascade system. The model provides COP and all other system parameters e.g. total compressor work, temperature, pressure, enthalpy and entropy at different state points. The working fluid in low temperature circuit (LTC) is CO₂ (R744) while Ammonia (R717), Propane (R290), Propylene (R1270), R404A and R12 are the refrigerants in high temperature circuit (HTC). The performance curves of Ammonia, Propane, Propylene, and R404A are compared with R12 to find its nearest substitute. Results show that Ammonia is the best substitute of R12.

Keywords: Cascade system, Refrigerants, Thermodynamic model.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 5748

Authors: Rozilawati Razali, Paul W. Garratt

Abstract:

Software maintenance, which involves making enhancements, modifications and corrections to existing software systems, consumes more than half of developer time. Specification comprehensibility plays an important role in software maintenance as it permits the understanding of the system properties more easily and quickly. The use of formal notation such as B increases a specification-s precision and consistency. However, the notation is regarded as being difficult to comprehend. Semi-formal notation such as the Unified Modelling Language (UML) is perceived as more accessible but it lacks formality. Perhaps by combining both notations could produce a specification that is not only accurate and consistent but also accessible to users. This paper presents an experiment conducted on a model that integrates the use of both UML and B notations, namely UML-B, versus a B model alone. The objective of the experiment was to evaluate the comprehensibility of a UML-B model compared to a traditional B model. The measurement used in the experiment focused on the efficiency in performing the comprehension tasks. The experiment employed a cross-over design and was conducted on forty-one subjects, including undergraduate and masters students. The results show that the notation used in the UML-B model is more comprehensible than the B model.

Keywords: Model comprehensibility, formal and semi-formal notation, empirical assessment.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1598

Authors: Claudineia Brazil, Elison Eduardo Jardim Bierhals, Luciane Teresa Salvi, Rafael Haag

Abstract:

Renewable energy sources are dependent on climatic variability, so for adequate energy planning, observations of the meteorological variables are required, preferably representing long-period series. Despite the scientific and technological advances that meteorological measurement systems have undergone in the last decades, there is still a considerable lack of meteorological observations that form series of long periods. The reanalysis is a system of assimilation of data prepared using general atmospheric circulation models, based on the combination of data collected at surface stations, ocean buoys, satellites and radiosondes, allowing the production of long period data, for a wide gamma. The third generation of reanalysis data emerged in 2010, among them is the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) developed by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), these data have a spatial resolution of 0.50 x 0.50. In order to overcome these difficulties, it aims to evaluate the performance of solar radiation estimation through alternative data bases, such as data from Reanalysis and from meteorological satellites that satisfactorily meet the absence of observations of solar radiation at global and/or regional level. The results of the analysis of the solar radiation data indicated that the reanalysis data of the CFSR model presented a good performance in relation to the observed data, with determination coefficient around 0.90. Therefore, it is concluded that these data have the potential to be used as an alternative source in locations with no seasons or long series of solar radiation, important for the evaluation of solar energy potential.

Keywords: Climate, reanalysis, renewable energy, solar radiation.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 906

Authors: Mingyu Xie, Mietek Brdys

Abstract:

The paper develops a Non-Linear Model Predictive Control (NMPC) of water quality in Drinking Water Distribution Systems (DWDS) based on the advanced non-linear quality dynamics model including disinfections by-products (DBPs). A special attention is paid to the analysis of an impact of the flow trajectories prescribed by an upper control level of the recently developed two-time scale architecture of an integrated quality and quantity control in DWDS. The new quality controller is to operate within this architecture in the fast time scale as the lower level quality controller. The controller performance is validated by a comprehensive simulation study based on an example case study DWDS.

Keywords: Model predictive control, hierarchical control structure, genetic algorithm, water quality with DBPs objectives.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2478

Authors: Hye Lyeong Kim, Sang Yeong Choi

Abstract:

This paper discusses a discrete event simulation model for the availability analysis of weapon systems. This model incorporates missions, operational tasks and system reliability structures to analyze the availability of a weapon system. The proposed simulation model consists of 5 modules: Simulation Engine, Maintenance Organizations, System, its Mission Profile and RBD which are based on missions and operational tasks. Simulation Engine executes three kinds of discrete events in chronological order. The events are mission events generated by Mission Profile, failure events generated by System, and maintenance events executed by Maintenance Organization. Finally, this paper shows the case study of a system's availability analysis and mission reliability using the simulation model.

Keywords: MTBF (Mean Time Between Failure), MTTR (Mean Time To Repair), Availability, Reliability, RBD (Reliability Block Diagram)

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2650

Authors: Nitin Gupta, Rakesh Kumar Bajaj

Abstract:

In the present communication, stochastic comparison of a series (parallel) system having heterogeneous components with random lifetimes and series (parallel) system having homogeneous exponential components with random lifetimes has been studied. Further, conditions under which such a comparison is possible has been established.

Keywords: Exponential distribution, Order statistics, Star ordering, Stochastic ordering.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1564

Authors: Saktioto, F.D Ismail, P.P. Yupapin, J. Ali

Abstract:

The equilibrium process of plasma nitrogen species by chemical kinetic reactions along various pressures is successfully investigated. The equilibrium process is required in industrial application to obtain the stable condition when heating up the material for having homogenous reaction. Nitrogen species densities is modeled by a continuity equation and extended Arrhenius form. These equations are used to integrate the change of density over the time. The integration is to acquire density and the reaction rate of each reaction where temperature and time dependence are imposed. A comparison is made with global model within pressure range of 1- 100mTorr and the temperature of electron is set to be higher than other nitrogen species. The results shows that the chemical kinetic model only agrees for high pressure because of no power imposed; while the global model considers the external power along the pressure range then the electron and nitrogen species give highly quantity densities by factor of 3 to 5.

Keywords: chemical kinetic model, Arrhenius equation, nitrogen plasma, low pressure discharge

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1735

Authors: Barıs Kocer, Ahmet Arslan

Abstract:

Travelling salesman problem (TSP) is a combinational optimization problem and solution approaches have been applied many real world problems. Pure TSP assumes the cities to visit are fixed in time and thus solutions are created to find shortest path according to these point. But some of the points are canceled to visit in time. If the problem is not time crucial it is not important to determine new routing plan but if the points are changing rapidly and time is necessary do decide a new route plan a new approach should be applied in such cases. We developed a route plan transfer method based on transfer learning and we achieved high performance against determining a new model from scratch in every change.

Keywords: genetic algorithms, transfer learning, travellingsalesman problem

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1271

Authors: Laurenţiu Militeanu, Cristina Gena Dascâlu, D. Cristea

Abstract:

The human head representations usually are based on the morphological – structural components of a real model. Over the time became more and more necessary to achieve full virtual models that comply very rigorous with the specifications of the human anatomy. Still, making and using a model perfectly fitted with the real anatomy is a difficult task, because it requires large hardware resources and significant times for processing. That is why it is necessary to choose the best compromise solution, which keeps the right balance between the details perfection and the resources consumption, in order to obtain facial animations with real-time rendering. We will present here the way in which we achieved such a 3D system that we intend to use as a base point in order to create facial animations with real-time rendering, used in medicine to find and to identify different types of pathologies.

Keywords: 3D models, virtual reality.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1456

Authors: Shuimiao Wan, Chao Yuan, Baoguang Tian

Abstract:

In this paper, a linear mixed model which has two random effects is broken up into two models. This thesis gets the parameter estimation of the original model and an estimation’s statistical qualities based on these two models. Then many important properties are given by comparing this estimation with other general estimations. At the same time, this paper proves the analysis of variance estimate (ANOVAE) about σ2 of the original model is equal to the least-squares estimation (LSE) about σ2 of these two models. Finally, it also proves that this estimation is better than ANOVAE under Stein function and special condition in some degree.

Keywords: Linear mixed model, Random effects, Parameter estimation, Stein function.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1815

Authors: Sidhartha Panda, N. P. Padhy

Abstract:

This paper investigates the application of Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) technique for coordinated design of a Power System Stabilizer (PSS) and a Thyristor Controlled Series Compensator (TCSC)-based controller to enhance the power system stability. The design problem of PSS and TCSC-based controllers is formulated as a time domain based optimization problem. PSO algorithm is employed to search for optimal controller parameters. By minimizing the time-domain based objective function, in which the deviation in the oscillatory rotor speed of the generator is involved; stability performance of the system is improved. To compare the capability of PSS and TCSC-based controller, both are designed independently first and then in a coordinated manner for individual and coordinated application. The proposed controllers are tested on a weakly connected power system. The eigenvalue analysis and non-linear simulation results are presented to show the effectiveness of the coordinated design approach over individual design. The simulation results show that the proposed controllers are effective in damping low frequency oscillations resulting from various small disturbances like change in mechanical power input and reference voltage setting.

Keywords: Particle swarm optimization, Phillips-Heffron model, power system stability, PSS, TCSC.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2159

Authors: M. E. Khalifa, A. A. Gobouri

Abstract:

Potential synthesis of a series of 3-amino-4-arylazothiophene derivatives from reaction of 2-cyano-2-phenylthiocarbamoyl acetamide and the appropriate α-halogenated reagents, followed by coupling with different aryl diazonium salts (Japp-Klingemann reaction), and another series of 5-arylazo-thiazol-2-ylcarbamoyl-thiophene derivatives from base-catalyzed intramolecular condensation of 5-arylazo-2-(N-chloroacetyl)amino-thiazole with selected b-keto compounds (Thorpe-Ziegler reaction) was performed. The biological activity of the two series was studied in vitro. Their versatility for pharmaceutical purposes was reported, where they displayed remarkable activities against selected pathogenic microorganisms; Bacillus subtilis, Staphylococcus aureus (Gram positive bacteria), Escherichia coli, Pseudomonas aeruginosa (Gram negative bacteria), and Aspergillus flavus, Candida albicans (fungi) with various degrees related to their chemical structures.

Keywords: 2-Aminothiazole, antimicrobial, monoazo compounds, thiophene, pathogenic microorganisms.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2229

Authors: P. Pongsumpun, I.M. Tang

Abstract:

Plasmodium vivax malaria differs from P. falciparum malaria in that a person suffering from P. vivax infection can suffer relapses of the disease. This is due the parasite being able to remain dormant in the liver of the patients where it is able to re-infect the patient after a passage of time. During this stage, the patient is classified as being in the dormant class. The model to describe the transmission of P. vivax malaria consists of a human population divided into four classes, the susceptible, the infected, the dormant and the recovered. The effect of a time delay on the transmission of this disease is studied. The time delay is the period in which the P. vivax parasite develops inside the mosquito (vector) before the vector becomes infectious (i.e., pass on the infection). We analyze our model by using standard dynamic modeling method. Two stable equilibrium states, a disease free state E0 and an endemic state E1, are found to be possible. It is found that the E0 state is stable when a newly defined basic reproduction number G is less than one. If G is greater than one the endemic state E1 is stable. The conditions for the endemic equilibrium state E1 to be a stable spiral node are established. For realistic values of the parameters in the model, it is found that solutions in phase space are trajectories spiraling into the endemic state. It is shown that the limit cycle and chaotic behaviors can only be achieved with unrealistic parameter values.

Keywords: Equilibrium states, Hopf bifurcation, limit cyclebehavior, local stability, Plasmodium Vivax, time delay.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2243

Authors: Elnaz Saeedi, Jamileh Abolaghasemi, Mohsen Nasiri Tousi, Saeedeh Khosravi

Abstract:

Goals and Objectives: A typical analysis of survival data involves the modeling of time-to-event data, such as the time till death. A frailty model is a random effect model for time-to-event data, where the random effect has a multiplicative influence on the baseline hazard function. This article aims to investigate the use of gamma frailty model with concomitant variable in order to individualize the prognostic factors that influence the liver cirrhosis patients’ survival times. Methods: During the one-year study period (May 2008-May 2009), data have been used from the recorded information of patients with liver cirrhosis who were scheduled for liver transplantation and were followed up for at least seven years in Imam Khomeini Hospital in Iran. In order to determine the effective factors for cirrhotic patients’ survival in the presence of latent variables, the gamma frailty distribution has been applied. In this article, it was considering the parametric model, such as Exponential and Weibull distributions for survival time. Data analysis is performed using R software, and the error level of 0.05 was considered for all tests. Results: 305 patients with liver cirrhosis including 180 (59%) men and 125 (41%) women were studied. The age average of patients was 39.8 years. At the end of the study, 82 (26%) patients died, among them 48 (58%) were men and 34 (42%) women. The main cause of liver cirrhosis was found hepatitis 'B' with 23%, followed by cryptogenic with 22.6% were identified as the second factor. Generally, 7-year’s survival was 28.44 months, for dead patients and for censoring was 19.33 and 31.79 months, respectively. Using multi-parametric survival models of progressive and regressive, Exponential and Weibull models with regard to the gamma frailty distribution were fitted to the cirrhosis data. In both models, factors including, age, bilirubin serum, albumin serum, and encephalopathy had a significant effect on survival time of cirrhotic patients. Conclusion: To investigate the effective factors for the time of patients’ death with liver cirrhosis in the presence of latent variables, gamma frailty model with parametric distributions seems desirable.

Keywords: Frailty model, latent variables, liver cirrhosis, parametric distribution.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1058

Authors: Ashvin Gopaul, Jayrani Cheeneebash, Kamleshsing Baurhoo

Abstract:

In this paper we study some numerical methods to solve a model one-dimensional convection–diffusion equation. The semi-discretisation of the space variable results into a system of ordinary differential equations and the solution of the latter involves the evaluation of a matrix exponent. Since the calculation of this term is computationally expensive, we study some methods based on Krylov subspace and on Restrictive Taylor series approximation respectively. We also consider the Chebyshev Pseudospectral collocation method to do the spatial discretisation and we present the numerical solution obtained by these methods.

Keywords: Chebyshev Pseudospectral collocation method, convection-diffusion equation, restrictive Taylor approximation.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1680

Authors: Faraj Farhat El Dabee, Rajab Abdullah Hokoma

Abstract:

Supply Chain Management (SCM) is the integration between manufacturer, transporter and customer in order to form one seamless chain that allows smooth flow of raw materials, information and products throughout the entire network that help in minimizing all related efforts and costs. The main objective of this paper is to develop a model that can accept a specified number of spare-parts within the supply chain, simulating its inventory operations throughout all stages in order to minimize the inventory holding costs, base-stock, safety-stock, and to find the optimum quantity of inventory levels, thereby suggesting a way forward to adapt some factors of Just-In-Time to minimizing the inventory costs throughout the entire supply chain. The model has been developed using Micro- Soft Excel & Visual Basic in order to study inventory allocations in any network of the supply chain. The application and reproducibility of this model were tested by comparing the actual system that was implemented in the case study with the results of the developed model. The findings showed that the total inventory costs of the developed model are about 50% less than the actual costs of the inventory items within the case study.

Keywords: Holding Costs, Inventory, JIT, Modeling, SCM

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3479

Authors: Thanh-Duoc Phan, Saden H. Zahiri, S. H. Masood, Mahnaz Jahedi

Abstract:

In this article, using finite element analysis (FEA) and an X-ray diffractometer (XRD), cold-sprayed titanium particles on a steel substrate is investigated in term of cooling time and the development of residual strains. Three cooling-down models of sprayed particles after deposition stage are simulated and discussed: the first model (m1) considers conduction effect to the substrate only, the second model (m2) considers both conduction as well as convection effect to the environment, and the third model (m3) which is the same as the second model but with the substrate heated to a near particle temperature before spraying. Thereafter, residual strains developed in the third model is compared with the experimental measurement of residual strains, which involved a Bruker D8 Advance Diffractometer using CuKa radiation (40kV, 40mA) monochromatised with a graphite sample monochromator. For deposition conditions of this study, a good correlation was found to exist between the FEA results and XRD measurements of residual strains.

Keywords: cold gas dynamic spray, X-ray diffraction, explicit finite element analysis, residual strain, titanium, particle impact, deformation behavior.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1756