Search results for: Stock Price forecast

Authors: Kazuhide Sugiyama, Hiroshi Osada

Abstract:

Lately management strategy that put Industrial Design (ID) in its core is recognized more important, as technology and price alone cannot differentiate a product. The needs to shorten the time to develop a product also shorten the development period of ID, and it necessitates the ID process management. This research analyzes the status of integration process of ID and Engineering Design (ED) of office equipment that requires the collaboration of ID and ED to clarify the issues for the efficiency of the development and to propose solutions.

Keywords: Industrial Design (ID), Engineering Design (ED), Integration process, Office equipment

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Authors: Sunusi N., Kresna A. J., Islamiyati A., Raupong

Abstract:

Hazard rate estimation is one of the important topics in forecasting earthquake occurrence. Forecasting earthquake occurrence is a part of the statistical seismology where the main subject is the point process. Generally, earthquake hazard rate is estimated based on the point process likelihood equation called the Hazard Rate Likelihood of Point Process (HRLPP). In this research, we have developed estimation method, that is hazard rate single decrement HRSD. This method was adapted from estimation method in actuarial studies. Here, one individual associated with an earthquake with inter event time is exponentially distributed. The information of epicenter and time of earthquake occurrence are used to estimate hazard rate. At the end, a case study of earthquake hazard rate will be given. Furthermore, we compare the hazard rate between HRLPP and HRSD method.

Keywords: Earthquake forecast, Hazard Rate, Likelihood point process, Point process.

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Authors: Mustapha Kamel Mihoubi, Hocine Dahmani

Abstract:

Over recent years much progress has been achieved in the fields of numerical modeling shoreline processes: waves, currents, waves and current. However, there are still some problems in the existing models to link the on the first, the hydrodynamics of waves and currents and secondly, the sediment transport processes and due to the variability in time, space and interaction and the simultaneous action of wave-current near the shore. This paper is the establishment of a numerical modeling to forecast the sediment transport from development scenarios of harbor structure. It is established on the basis of a numerical simulation of a water-sediment model via a 2D model using a set of codes calculation MIKE 21-DHI software. This is to examine the effect of the sediment transport drivers following the dominant incident wave in the direction to pass input harbor work under different variants planning studies to find the technical and economic limitations to the sediment transport and protection of the harbor structure optimum solution.

Keywords: Swell, current, radiation, stress, mesh, MIKE21, sediment.

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Authors: Tomohiro Hachino, Hitoshi Takata, Seiji Fukushima, Yasutaka Igarashi

Abstract:

This paper presents a Gaussian process model-based short-term electric load forecasting. The Gaussian process model is a nonparametric model and the output of the model has Gaussian distribution with mean and variance. The multiple Gaussian process models as every hour ahead predictors are used to forecast future electric load demands up to 24 hours ahead in accordance with the direct forecasting approach. The separable least-squares approach that combines the linear least-squares method and genetic algorithm is applied to train these Gaussian process models. Simulation results are shown to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed electric load forecasting.

Keywords: Direct method, electric load forecasting, Gaussian process model, genetic algorithm, separable least-squares method.

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Authors: William Anderson, Kyle Kobold, Oleg Yakimenko

Abstract:

Green microgrids using mostly renewable energy (RE) for generation, are complex systems with inherent nonlinear dynamics. Among a variety of different optimization tools there are only a few ones that adequately consider this complexity. This paper evaluates applicability of two somewhat similar optimization tools tailored for standalone RE microgrids and also assesses a machine learning tool for performance prediction that can enhance the reliability of any chosen optimization tool. It shows that one of these microgrid optimization tools has certain advantages over another and presents a detailed routine of preparing input data to simulate RE microgrid behavior. The paper also shows how neural-network-based predictive modeling can be used to validate and forecast solar power generation based on weather time series data, which improves the overall quality of standalone RE microgrid analysis.

Keywords: Microgrid, renewable energy, complex systems, optimization, predictive modeling, neural networks.

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Authors: Piotr Prewysz Kwinto, Grażyna Voss

Abstract:

Accounting policies are a set of solutions compliant with legal regulations that an entity selects and adopts, and which guarantee a proper quality of financial statements. Those solutions may differ depending on whether the entity adopts national or international accounting standards. The aim of this article is to present accounting principles (policies) in Polish and international legal regulations and their adoption in selected Polish companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. The research method adopted in this work is the analysis and evaluation of legal conditions in Polish companies.

Keywords: Accounting policies, International Financial Reporting Standards, Financial statement, Method of measuring.

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Authors: Rosita Suhaimi, Firdaus Abdullah, Chong Fen Nee, Nurhani Aba Ibrahim

Abstract:

This paper attempts to identify the significance of Information and Communications Technology (ICT) and competitiveness to the profit efficiency of commercial banks in Malaysia. The profit efficiency of commercial banks in Malaysia, the dependent variable, was estimated using the Stochastic Frontier Approach (SFA) on a sample of unbalanced panel data, covering 23 commercial banks, between 1995 to 2007. Based on the empirical results, ICT was not found to exert a significant impact on profit efficiency, whereas competitiveness, non ICT stock expenditure and ownership were significant contributors. On the other hand, the size of banks was found to have significantly reduced profit efficiency, opening up for various interpretations of the interrelated role of ICT and competition.

Keywords: Competitiveness, Profit Efficiency, Stochastic Frontier Analysis

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Authors: Qiuling Xie, Shanliang Zhu, Zongdi Sun

Abstract:

In this paper, we analyzed the correlation relationship among PM2.5 from other five Air Quality Indices (AQIs) based on the grey relational degree, and built a multivariate nonlinear regression equation model of PM2.5 and the five monitoring indexes. For the optimal control problem of PM2.5, we took the partial large Cauchy distribution of membership equation as satisfaction function. We established a nonlinear programming model with the goal of maximum performance to price ratio. And the optimal control scheme is given.

Keywords: Grey relational degree, multiple linear regression, membership function, nonlinear programming.

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Authors: Bruno Félix, André Vasconcelos, José Tribolet

Abstract:

Nowadays increasingly the population makes use of Information Technology (IT). As such, in recent year the Portuguese government increased its focus on using the IT for improving people-s life and began to develop a set of measures to enable the modernization of the Public Administration, and so reducing the gap between Public Administration and citizens.Thus the Portuguese Government launched the Simplex Program. However these SIMPLEX eGov measures, which have been implemented over the years, present a serious challenge: how to forecast its impact on existing Information Systems Architecture (ISA). Thus, this research is focus in addressing the problem of automating the evaluation of the actual impact of implementation an eGovSimplification and Modernization measures in the Information Systems Architecture. To realize the evaluation we proposes a Framework, which is supported by some key concepts as: Quality Factors, ISA modeling, Multicriteria Approach, Polarity Profile and Quality Metrics

Keywords: Information System Architecture, Evaluation, eGov Simplification measure, Multicriteria Evaluation

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Authors: Yacine Challal, Abdelmadjid Bouabdallah

Abstract:

The lack of security obstructs a large scale de- ployment of the multicast communication model. There- fore, a host of research works have been achieved in order to deal with several issues relating to securing the multicast, such as confidentiality, authentication, non-repudiation, in- tegrity and access control. Many applications require au- thenticating the source of the received traffic, such as broadcasting stock quotes and videoconferencing and hence source authentication is a required component in the whole multicast security architecture. In this paper, we propose a new and efficient source au- thentication protocol which guarantees non-repudiation for multicast flows, and tolerates packet loss. We have simu- lated our protocol using NS-2, and the simulation results show that the protocol allows to achieve improvements over protocols fitting into the same category.

Keywords: Source Authentication, Non-repudiation, Multicast Security.

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Authors: Won Kyung Ham, Kang Hoon Cho, Yongho Chung, Sang C. Park

Abstract:

Presented in this paper is a framework of a software ‘WEMax’. The WEMax is invented for analysis and simulation for manned assembly lines to sustain and improve performance of manufacturing systems. In a manufacturing system, performance, such as productivity, is a key of competitiveness for output products. However, the manned assembly lines are difficult to forecast performance, because human labors are not expectable factors by computer simulation models or mathematical models. Existing approaches to performance forecasting of the manned assembly lines are limited to matters of the human itself, such as ergonomic and workload design, and non-human-factor-relevant simulation. Consequently, an approach for the forecasting and improvement of manned assembly line performance is needed to research. As a solution of the current problem, this study proposes a framework that is for generation and simulation of virtual manned assembly lines, and the framework has been implemented as a software.

Keywords: Performance Forecasting, Simulation, Virtual Manned Assembly Line.

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Authors: Panudet Saengseedam, Nanthachai Kantanantha

Abstract:

This paper proposes a linear mixed model (LMM) with spatial effects to forecast rice and cassava yields in Thailand at the same time. A multivariate conditional autoregressive (MCAR) model is assumed to present the spatial effects. A Bayesian method is used for parameter estimation via Gibbs sampling Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The model is applied to the rice and cassava yields monthly data which have been extracted from the Office of Agricultural Economics, Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives of Thailand. The results show that the proposed model has better performance in most provinces in both fitting part and validation part compared to the simple exponential smoothing and conditional auto regressive models (CAR) from our previous study.

Keywords: Bayesian method, Linear mixed model, Multivariate conditional autoregressive model, Spatial time series.

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Authors: R. Inkum, A. Teerawutgulrag, P. Puangsombat, N. Rakariyatham

Abstract:

Propranolol is worldwide hypertension drug that is active in S-isomer. Patients must use this drug throughout their lives, and this action employsa significant level of expenditure. A simpler synthesis and lower cost can reduce the price for the patient. A sis pathway of S-propranolol starting from protection of (R,S)-propranolol with di-t-butyldicarbonate and then the product is oxidized with pyridiniumchlorochromate. The selective reduction of ketone occurrs with sodiumborohydride in the presence of metal chloride provided S-propranolol.

Keywords: S-propranolol, selective reduction, sodium borohydride, metal chloride

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Authors: Malaw Ndiaye, Karim Konate

Abstract:

Smart contracts are computer protocols that facilitate, verify, and execute the negotiation or execution of a contract, or that render a contractual term unnecessary. Blockchain and smart contracts can be used to facilitate almost any financial transaction. Thanks to these smart contracts, the settlement of dividends and coupons could be automated. Smart contracts have become lucrative and profitable targets for attackers because they can hold a great amount of money. Smart contracts, although widely used in blockchain technology, are far from perfect due to security concerns. Although a series of attacks are listed, there is a lack of discussions and proposals on improving security. This survey takes stock of smart contract security from a more comprehensive perspective by correlating the level of vulnerability and systematic review of security levels in smart contracts.

Keywords: Blockchain, bitcoin, smart Contract, criminal smart contract, security.

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Authors: Rafayel K. Kostanyan

Abstract:

The opportunities of use of metallic magnesium as a generator of hydrogen gas, as well as thermal and electric energy is presented in the paper. Various schemes of magnesium application are discussed and power characteristics of corresponding devices are presented. Economic estimation of hydrogen price obtained by different methods is made, including the use of magnesium as a source of hydrogen for transportation in comparison with gasoline. Details and prospects of our new inexpensive technology of magnesium production from magnesium hydroxide and magnesium bearing rocks (which are available worldwide and in Armenia) are analyzed. It is estimated the threshold cost of Mg production at which application of this metal in power engineering is economically justified.

Keywords: Magnesium, power generation, production, renewable energy.

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Authors: A. L. Qureshi, A. A. Mahessar, A. Baloch

Abstract:

Flood wave propagation in river channel flow can be enunciated by nonlinear equations of motion for unsteady flow. It is difficult to find analytical solution of these non-linear equations. Hence, in this paper verification of the finite element model has been carried out against available numerical predictions and field data. The results of the model indicate a good matching with both Preissmann scheme and HEC-RAS model for a river reach of 29km at both sites (15km from upstream and at downstream end) for discharge hydrographs. It also has an agreeable comparison with the Preissemann scheme for the flow depth (stage) hydrographs. The proposed model has also been applying to forecast daily discharges at 400km downstream in the Indus River from Sukkur barrage of Sindh, Pakistan, which demonstrates accurate model predictions with observed the daily discharges. Hence, this model may be utilized for flood warnings in advance.

Keywords: Finite Element Method, Flood Forecasting, HEC-RAS, Indus river.

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Authors: Shoji Katagiri

Abstract:

This paper is to clarify the relationship between ICT and income inequality. To do so, we develop the general equilibrium model with ICT investment, obtain the equilibrium solutions, and then simulate the model with these solutions for some OECD countries. As a result, generally, during the corresponding periods we confirm that the relationship between ICT investment and income inequality is positive. In this mode, the increment of the ratio of ICT investment to the aggregated investment in stock enhances the capital’s share of income, and finally leads to income inequality such as the increase of the share of the top decile income. Although we confirm the positive relationship between ICT investment and income inequality, the upward trend for that relationship depends on the values of parameters for the making use of the simulations and these parameters are not deterministic in the magnitudes on the calculated results for the simulations.

Keywords: ICT, inequality, capital accumulation, technology.

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Authors: Andreas L. Savvides

Abstract:

The proposed paper examines strategies whose aim is to counter the all too often sighted process of abandonment that characterizes contemporary cities. The city of Nicosia in Cyprus is used as an indicative case study, whereby several recent projects are presented as capitalizing on traditional cultural assets to revive the downtown. The reuse of existing building stock as museums, performing arts centers and theaters but also as in the form of various housing typologies is geared to strengthen the ranks of local residents and to spur economic growth. Unlike the examples from the 1960s, the architecture of more recent adaptive reuse for urban regeneration seems to be geared in reinforcing a connection to the city where the buildings often reflect the characteristics of their urban context.

Keywords: Public Housing, Building Rehabilitation, Urban Regeneration, Population Integration

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Authors: Subir Kundu, Sukhendra Singh, Sumedha Ojha, Kanika Kundu

Abstract:

The continuous decline of petroleum and natural gas reserves and non linear rise of oil price has brought about a realisation of the need for a change in our perpetual dependence on the fossil fuel. A day to day increased consumption of crude and petroleum products has made a considerable impact on our foreign exchange reserves. Hence, an alternate resource for the conversion of energy (both liquid and gas) is essential for the substitution of conventional fuels. Biomass is the alternate solution for the present scenario. Biomass can be converted into both liquid as well as gaseous fuels and other feedstocks for the industries.

Keywords: Bioenergy, Biomass conversion, Biorefining, Efficient utilisation of night soil.

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Authors: Libena Cernohorska, Veronika Linhartova, Michal Sinka, Petr Teply

Abstract:

The term private equity usually refers to any type of equity investment in an asset in which the equity is not freely tradable on a public stock market. Some researchers believe that private equity contributed to the extent of the crisis and increased the pace of its spread over the world. We do not agree with this. On the other hand, we argue that during the economic recession private equity might become an important source of funds for firms with special needs (e.g. for firms seeking buyout financing, venture capital, expansion capital or distress debt financing). However, over-regulation of private equity in both the European Union and the US can slow down this specific funding channel to the economy and deepen credit crunch during global crises.

Keywords: scredit lunch, distress debt, global crisis, private equity, regulation

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Authors: I. Falconett, K. Nagasaka

Abstract:

This study investigates the performance of radial basis function networks (RBFN) in forecasting the monthly CO2 emissions of an electric power utility. We also propose a method for input variable selection. This method is based on identifying the general relationships between groups of input candidates and the output. The effect that each input has on the forecasting error is examined by removing all inputs except the variable to be investigated from its group, calculating the networks parameter and performing the forecast. Finally, the new forecasting error is compared with the reference model. Eight input variables were identified as the most relevant, which is significantly less than our reference model with 30 input variables. The simulation results demonstrate that the model with the 8 inputs selected using the method introduced in this study performs as accurate as the reference model, while also being the most parsimonious.

Keywords: Correlation analysis, CO2 emissions forecasting, electric power utility, radial basis function networks.

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Authors: S. Bouharati, F. Allag, M. Belmahdi, M. Bounechada

Abstract:

In terms of ecology forecast effects of desertification, the purpose of this study is to develop a predictive model of growth and adaptation of species in arid environment and bioclimatic conditions. The impact of climate change and the desertification phenomena is the result of combined effects in magnitude and frequency of these phenomena. Like the data involved in the phytopathogenic process and bacteria growth in arid soil occur in an uncertain environment because of their complexity, it becomes necessary to have a suitable methodology for the analysis of these variables. The basic principles of fuzzy logic those are perfectly suited to this process. As input variables, we consider the physical parameters, soil type, bacteria nature, and plant species concerned. The result output variable is the adaptability of the species expressed by the growth rate or extinction. As a conclusion, we prevent the possible strategies for adaptation, with or without shifting areas of plantation and nature adequate vegetation.

Keywords: Climate changes, dry soil, Phytopathogenicity, Predictive model, Fuzzy logic.

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Authors: Z. Bottyán, F. Wantuch, A. Z. Gyöngyösi, Z. Tuba, K. Hadobács, P. Kardos, R. Kurunczi

Abstract:

The sensitivity of UAVs to the atmospheric effects are apparent. All the same the meteorological support for the UAVs missions is often non-adequate or partly missing. In our paper we show a new complex meteorological support system for different types of UAVs pilots, specialists and decision makers, too. The mentioned system has two important parts with different forecasts approach such as the statistical and dynamical ones. The statistical prediction approach is based on a large climatological data base and the special analog method which is able to select similar weather situations from the mentioned data base to apply them during the forecasting procedure. The applied dynamic approach uses the specific WRF model runs twice a day and produces 96 hours, high resolution weather forecast for the UAV users over the Hungary. An easy to use web-based system can give important weather information over the Carpathian basin in Central-Europe. The mentioned products can be reached via internet connection.

Keywords: Aviation meteorology, statistical weather prediction, unmanned aerial systems, WRF.

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Authors: Subir Kundu, Sukhendra Singh, Sumedha Ojha, Kanika Kundu

Abstract:

The continuous decline of petroleum and natural gas reserves and non linear rise of oil price has brought about a realisation of the need for a change in our perpetual dependence on the fossil fuel. A day to day increased consumption of crude and petroleum products has made a considerable impact on our foreign exchange reserves. Hence, an alternate resource for the conversion of energy (both liquid and gas) is essential for the substitution of conventional fuels. Biomass is the alternate solution for the present scenario. Biomass can be converted into both liquid as well as gaseous fuels and other feedstocks for the industries.

Keywords: Bioenergy, Biomass conversion, Biorefining, Efficient utilisation of night soil.

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Authors: Kolis Karel, Kubicek Ales

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to explore the relationship between the customers- issues in company corporate governance and the financial performance. At the beginning theoretical background consisting stakeholder theory and corporate governance is presented. On this theoretical background, the empirical research is built, collecting data of 60 Czech joint stock companies- boards considering their relationships with customers. Correlation analysis and multivariate regression analysis were employed to test the sample on two hypotheses. The weak positive correlation between stakeholder approach and the company size was identified. But both hypotheses were not supported, because there was no significant relation of independent variables to financial performance.

Keywords: customers, stakeholder theory, corporate governance, financial performance

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Authors: Ondřej Nowak

Abstract:

This paper presents an exploration into the structure of the corporate governance network and interlocking directorates in the Czech Republic. First a literature overview and a basic terminology of the network theory is presented. Further in the text, statistics and other calculations relevant to corporate governance networks are presented. For this purpose an empirical data set consisting of 2 906 joint stock companies in the Czech Republic was examined. Industries with the highest average number of interlocks per company were healthcare, and energy and utilities. There is no observable link between the financial performance of the company and the number of its interlocks. Also interlocks with financial companies are very rare.

Keywords: Corporate Governance, Interlocking Directorates, Network Theory, Czech Republic.

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Authors: Kadyrzhan Smagulov, Mukhtar Senggirbay, Sholpan Zhandossova, Lyaila Ivatova, Gulnar Nassimova

Abstract:

terrorism and extremism are among the most dangerous and difficult to forecast the phenomena of our time, which are becoming more diverse forms and rampant. Terrorist attacks often produce mass casualties, involve the destruction of material and spiritual values, beyond the recovery times, sow hatred among nations, provoke war, mistrust and hatred between the social and national groups, which sometimes can not be overcome within a generation. Currently, the countries of Central Asia are a topical issue – the threat of terrorism and religious extremism, which grow not only in our area, but throughout the world. Of course, in each of the terrorist threat is assessed differently. In our country the problem of terrorism should not be acutely. Thus, after independence and sovereignty of Kazakhstan has chosen the path of democracy, progress and free economy. With the policy of the President of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev and well-organized political and economic reforms, there has been economic growth and rising living standards, socio-political stability, ensured civil peace and accord in society [1].

Keywords: Kazakhstan, national security, religious extremism and terrorism, ethnic conflict

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Authors: Tim D. Sass, Pe, Leed

Abstract:

The rising price of fossil fuels, government incentives and growing public aware-ness for the need to implement sustainable energy supplies has resulted in a large in-crease in solar panel installations across the country. For many sites the most eco-nomical solar panel installation uses existing, southerly facing rooftops. Adding solar panels to an existing roof typically means increased loads that must be borne by the building-s structural elements. The structural design professional is responsible for ensuring a new solar panel installation is properly supported by an existing structure and configured to maximize energy generation.

Keywords: Solar Panel, Structures, Structural Design.

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Authors: A. J. Regan, F. J. Lidgey, M. Betteridge, P. Georgiou, C. Toumazou, K. Hayatleh, J. R. Dibble

Abstract:

Our goal is development of an algorithm capable of predicting the directional trend of the Standard and Poor’s 500 index (S&P 500). Extensive research has been published attempting to predict different financial markets using historical data testing on an in-sample and trend basis, with many authors employing excessively complex mathematical techniques. In reviewing and evaluating these in-sample methodologies, it became evident that this approach was unable to achieve sufficiently reliable prediction performance for commercial exploitation. For these reasons, we moved to an out-ofsample strategy based on linear regression analysis of an extensive set of financial data correlated with historical closing prices of the S&P 500. We are pleased to report a directional trend accuracy of greater than 55% for tomorrow (t+1) in predicting the S&P 500.

Keywords: Financial algorithm, GPU, S&P 500, stock market prediction.

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Authors: Smajo Bisanovic, Mensur Hajro, Muris Dlakic

Abstract:

This paper presents one comprehensive modelling approach for maintenance scheduling problem of thermal power units in competitive market. This problem is formulated as a 0/1 mixedinteger linear programming model. Model incorporates long-term bilateral contracts with defined profiles of power and price, and weekly forecasted market prices for market auction. The effectiveness of the proposed model is demonstrated through case study with detailed discussion.

Keywords: Maintenance scheduling, bilateral contracts, market prices, profit.

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