Search results for: Statistical Performance.

Authors: Suman Senapati, Goutam Saha

Abstract:

This work presents a fusion of Log Gabor Wavelet (LGW) and Maximum a Posteriori (MAP) estimator as a speech enhancement tool for acoustical background noise reduction. The probability density function (pdf) of the speech spectral amplitude is approximated by a Generalized Laplacian Distribution (GLD). Compared to earlier estimators the proposed method estimates the underlying statistical model more accurately by appropriately choosing the model parameters of GLD. Experimental results show that the proposed estimator yields a higher improvement in Segmental Signal-to-Noise Ratio (S-SNR) and lower Log-Spectral Distortion (LSD) in two different noisy environments compared to other estimators.

Keywords: Speech Enhancement, Generalized Laplacian Distribution, Log Gabor Wavelet, Bayesian MAP Marginal Estimator.

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Authors: Ch. Antonopoulos, Th. Kapourniotis, V. Triantafillou

Abstract:

Optimum communication and performance in Wireless Sensor Networks, constitute multi-facet challenges due to the specific networking characteristics as well as the scarce resource availability. Furthermore, it is becoming increasingly apparent that isolated layer based approaches often do not meet the demands posed by WSNs applications due to omission of critical inter-layer interactions and dependencies. As a counterpart, cross-layer is receiving high interest aiming to exploit these interactions and increase network performance. However, in order to clearly identify existing dependencies, comprehensive performance studies are required evaluating the effect of different critical network parameters on system level performance and behavior.This paper-s main objective is to address the need for multi-parametric performance evaluations considering critical network parameters using a well known network simulator, offering useful and practical conclusions and guidelines. The results reveal strong dependencies among considered parameters which can be utilized by and drive future research efforts, towards designing and implementing highly efficient protocols and architectures.

Keywords: Wireless sensor network, Communication Systems, cross-layer architectures, simulation based performance evaluation

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Authors: Yusuke Uchiyama, Hidetoshi Konno

Abstract:

We have investigated statistical properties of the defect turbulence in 1D CGLE wherein many body interaction is involved between local depressing wave (LDW) and local standing wave (LSW). It is shown that the counting number fluctuation of LDW is subject to the sub-Poisson statistics (SUBP). The physical origin of the SUBP can be ascribed to pair extinction of LDWs based on the master equation approach. It is also shown that the probability density function (pdf) of inter-LDW distance can be identified by the hyper gamma distribution. Assuming a superstatistics of the exponential distribution (Poisson configuration), a plausible explanation is given. It is shown further that the pdf of amplitude of LDW has a fattail. The underlying mechanism of its fluctuation is examined by introducing a generalized fractional Poisson configuration.

Keywords: sub-Poisson statistics, hyper gamma distribution, fractional Poisson configuration.

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Authors: Filiz Ersoz, Taner Ersoz, Tugrul Bayraktar

Abstract:

Renewable energy is referred to as "clean energy" and common popular support for the use of renewable energy (RE) is to provide electricity with zero carbon dioxide emissions. This study provides useful insight into the European Union (EU) RE, especially, into electricity generation obtained from renewables, and their targets. The objective of this study is to identify groups of European countries, using multivariate statistical analysis and selected indicators. The hierarchical clustering method is used to decide the number of clusters for EU countries. The conducted statistical hierarchical cluster analysis is based on the Ward’s clustering method and squared Euclidean distances. Hierarchical cluster analysis identified eight distinct clusters of European countries. Then, non-hierarchical clustering (k-means) method was applied. Discriminant analysis was used to determine the validity of the results with data normalized by Z score transformation. To explore the relationship between the selected indicators, correlation coefficients were computed. The results of the study reveal the current situation of RE in European Union Member States.

Keywords: Share of electricity generation, CO2 emission, targets, multivariate methods, hierarchical clustering, K-means clustering, discriminant analyzed, correlation, EU member countries.

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Authors: Seyed Habib A. Rahmati, Arash Haji Karimi, Reza Saffari, Zeeya Rashvand

Abstract:

An important official knowledge in each country is to have a comprehensive knowledge about markets of each group of products. Drink markets are one the most important markets of each country as a sub-group of nourishment markets. This paper is going to study these markets in Iran. To do so, first, two drink products are selected as pilot, including milk and concentrate. Then, for each product, two groups of information are estimated for the last five years, including 1) total consumption (demand) and 2) total production. Finally, the two groups of productions are compared statistically by means of two statistical tests called t test and Mann- Whitney test. The implemented Different related tables and figures are also illustrated to show the method more explicitly.

Keywords: Market evaluation, Drink, Estimation, Mann- Whitney test

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Authors: Jana Kaděrová, Miroslav Vořechovský

Abstract:

The presented paper copes with an experimental evaluation of a model based on modified Weibull size effect theory. Classical statistical Weibull theory was modified by introducing a new parameter (correlation length lp) representing the spatial autocorrelation of a random mechanical properties of material. This size effect modification was observed on two different materials used in civil engineering: unreinforced (plain) concrete and multi-filament yarns made of alkaliresistant (AR) glass which are used for textile-reinforced concrete. The behavior under flexural, resp. tensile loading was investigated by laboratory experiments. A high number of specimens of different sizes was tested to obtain statistically significant data which were subsequently corrected and statistically processed. Due to a distortion of the measured displacements caused by the unstiff experiment device, only the maximal load values were statistically evaluated. Results of the experiments showed a decreasing strength with an increasing sample length. Size effect curves were obtained and the correlation length was fitted according to measured data. Results did not exclude the existence of the proposed new parameter lp.

Keywords: Statistical size effect, concrete, multi filaments yarns, experiment, autocorrelation length.

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Authors: M. S. Abdelwahed, M. A. El-Baz, T. T. El-Midany

Abstract:

this paper aims to provide an approach to predict the performance of the product produced after multi-stages of manufacturing processes, as well as the assembly. Such approach aims to control and subsequently identify the relationship between the process inputs and outputs so that a process engineer can more accurately predict how the process output shall perform based on the system inputs. The approach is guided by a six-sigma methodology to obtain improved performance. In this paper a case study of the manufacture of a hermetic reciprocating compressor is presented. The application of artificial neural networks (ANNs) technique is introduced to improve performance prediction within this manufacturing environment. The results demonstrate that the approach predicts accurately and effectively.

Keywords: Artificial neural networks, Reciprocating compressor manufacturing, Performance prediction, Quality improvement

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Authors: Mamoun F. Abdel-Hafez

Abstract:

In this paper, the detection of a fault in the Global Positioning System (GPS) measurement is addressed. The class of faults considered is a bias in the GPS pseudorange measurements. This bias is modeled as an unknown constant. The fault could be the result of a receiver fault or signal fault such as multipath error. A bias bank is constructed based on set of possible fault hypotheses. Initially, there is equal probability of occurrence for any of the biases in the bank. Subsequently, as the measurements are processed, the probability of occurrence for each of the biases is sequentially updated. The fault with a probability approaching unity will be declared as the current fault in the GPS measurement. The residual formed from the GPS and Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU) measurements is used to update the probability of each fault. Results will be presented to show the performance of the presented algorithm.

Keywords: Estimation and filtering, Statistical data analysis, Faultdetection and identification.

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Authors: J. H. Kim, J. H. Kwon, J. S. Park, K. J. Lim

Abstract:

This paper has been investigated a technique that predicts the performance of a bar-type unimorph piezoelectric vibration actuator depending on the frequency. This paper has been proposed an equivalent circuit that can be easily analyzed for the bar-type unimorph piezoelectric vibration actuator. In the dynamic analysis, rigidity and resonance frequency, which are important mechanical elements, were derived using the basic beam theory. In the equivalent circuit analysis, the displacement and bandwidth of the piezoelectric vibration actuator depending on the frequency were predicted. Also, for the reliability of the derived equations, the predicted performance depending on the shape change was compared with the result of a finite element analysis program.

Keywords: Actuator, performance, piezoelectric, unimorph.Actuator, performance, piezoelectric, unimorph.

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Authors: A. Sharma, R. Tewari, S. K. Soni

Abstract:

Biofuels production has come forth as a future technology to combat the problem of depleting fossil fuels. Bio-based ethanol production from enzymatic lignocellulosic biomass degradation serves an efficient method and catching the eye of scientific community. High cost of the enzyme is the major obstacle in preventing the commercialization of this process. Thus main objective of the present study was to optimize composition of medium components for enhancing cellulase production by newly isolated strain of Bacillus tequilensis. Nineteen factors were taken into account using statistical Plackett-Burman Design. The significant variables influencing the cellulose production were further employed in statistical Response Surface Methodology using Central Composite Design for maximizing cellulase production. The optimum medium composition for cellulase production was: peptone (4.94 g/L), ammonium chloride (4.99 g/L), yeast extract (2.00 g/L), Tween-20 (0.53 g/L), calcium chloride (0.20 g/L) and cobalt chloride (0.60 g/L) with pH 7, agitation speed 150 rpm and 72 h incubation at 37oC. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) revealed high coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.99. Maximum cellulase productivity of 11.5 IU/ml was observed against the model predicted value of 13 IU/ml. This was found to be optimally active at 60oC and pH 5.5.

Keywords: Bacillus tequilensis, CMCase, Submerged Fermentation, Optimization, Plackett-Burman Design, Response Surface Methodology.

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Authors: Kahil Amar, Boukais Said, Kezmane Ali, Hamizi Mohand, Hannachi Naceur Eddine

Abstract:

The principle of the seismic performance evaluation methods is to provide a measure of capability for a building or set of buildings to be damaged by an earthquake. The common objective of many of these methods is to supply classification criteria. The purpose of this study is to present a method for assessing the seismic performance of structures, based on Pushover method; we are particularly interested in reinforced concrete frame structures, which represent a significant percentage of damaged structures after a seismic event. The work is based on the characterization of seismic movement of the various earthquake zones in terms of PGA and PGD that is obtained by means of SIMQK_GR and PRISM software and the correlation between the points of performance and the scalar characterizing the earthquakes will developed.

Keywords: Seismic performance, Pushover method, characterization of seismic motion, harmfulness of the seismic signal

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Authors: Mohamed Elghorab, Vendra C. Madhav Rao, Jennifer X. Wen

Abstract:

Turbulence modelling is still evolving, and efforts are on to improve and develop numerical methods to simulate the real turbulence structures by using the empirical and experimental information. The monotonically integrated large eddy simulation (MILES) is an attractive approach for modelling turbulence in high Re flows, which is based on the solving of the unfiltered flow equations with no explicit sub-grid scale (SGS) model. In the current work, this approach has been used, and the action of the SGS model has been included implicitly by intrinsic nonlinear high-frequency filters built into the convection discretization schemes. The MILES solver is developed using the opensource CFD OpenFOAM libraries. The role of flux limiters schemes namely, Gamma, superBee, van-Albada and van-Leer, is studied in predicting turbulent statistical quantities for a fully developed channel flow with a friction Reynolds number, Re_T = 180, and compared the numerical predictions with the well-established Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS) results for studying the wall generated turbulence. It is inferred from the numerical predictions that Gamma, van-Leer and van-Albada limiters produced more diffusion and overpredicted the velocity profiles, while superBee scheme reproduced velocity profiles and turbulence statistical quantities in good agreement with the reference DNS data in the streamwise direction although it deviated slightly in the spanwise and normal to the wall directions. The simulation results are further discussed in terms of the turbulence intensities and Reynolds stresses averaged in time and space to draw conclusion on the flux limiter schemes performance in OpenFOAM context.

Keywords: Flux limiters, MILES, OpenFOAM, turbulence structures, TVD schemes.

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Authors: Youssef Khmou, Said Safi, Miloud Frikel

Abstract:

This paper treats different aspects of entropy measure in classical information theory and statistical quantum mechanics, it presents the possibility of extending the definition of Von Neumann entropy to image and array processing. In the first part, we generalize the quantum entropy using singular values of arbitrary rectangular matrices to measure the randomness and the quality of denoising operation, this new definition of entropy can be implemented to compare the performance analysis of filtering methods. In the second part, we apply the concept of pure state in quantum formalism to generalize the maximum entropy method for narrowband and farfield source localization problem. Several computer simulation results are illustrated to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed techniques.

Keywords: Von Neumann entropy, Filtering, array, DoA, Maximum Entropy Method.

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Authors: Azmi Hamid, Rozainun Aziz

Abstract:

The study aims to investigate the impact on board and audit committee characteristics and firm performance before and after the revision of MCCG (2007) on GLCs over the period 2005-2010. We used Return on Assets (ROA) as a proxy for firm performance. The data consists of two groups; data collected before and after the amendments of MCCG (2007). Findings show that boards of directors with accounting / finance qualifications (BEXP) are statistically significant with performance for period before the amendments. As for audit committee members with accounting or finance qualifications (ACEXP), correlation results indicate a negative association and non-significant results for the years before amendments. However, the years after the amendments show positive relationship with highly significant correlations (1%) to ROA. This indicates that the amendments of MCCG 2007 on the audit committee members- literacy in accounting have impacted the governance structures and performance of GLCs.

Keywords: BOD and Audit Committees, firm performance, GLCs.

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Authors: Sylvester A. Aye, Philippus S. Heyns

Abstract:

The effect of the rotational speed and axial torque on the diagnostics of tapered rolling element bearing defects was investigated. The accelerometer was mounted on the bearing housing and connected to Sound and Vibration Analyzer (SVAN 958) and was used to measure the accelerations from the bearing housing. The data obtained from the bearing was processed to detect damage of the bearing using statistical tools and the results were subsequently analyzed to see if bearing damage had been captured. From this study it can be seen that damage is more evident when the bearing is loaded. Also, at the incipient stage of damage the crest factor and kurtosis values are high but as time progresses the crest factors and kurtosis values decrease whereas the peak and RMS values are low at the incipient stage but increase with damage.

Keywords: crest factor, damage detection, kurtosis, RMS, tapered roller bearing.

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Authors: Ekachai Phaisangittisagul, Rapeepol Chongprachawat

Abstract:

Obtaining labeled data in supervised learning is often difficult and expensive, and thus the trained learning algorithm tends to be overfitting due to small number of training data. As a result, some researchers have focused on using unlabeled data which may not necessary to follow the same generative distribution as the labeled data to construct a high-level feature for improving performance on supervised learning tasks. In this paper, we investigate the impact of the relationship between unlabeled and labeled data for classification performance. Specifically, we will apply difference unlabeled data which have different degrees of relation to the labeled data for handwritten digit classification task based on MNIST dataset. Our experimental results show that the higher the degree of relation between unlabeled and labeled data, the better the classification performance. Although the unlabeled data that is completely from different generative distribution to the labeled data provides the lowest classification performance, we still achieve high classification performance. This leads to expanding the applicability of the supervised learning algorithms using unsupervised learning.

Keywords: Autoencoder, high-level feature, MNIST dataset, selftaught learning, supervised learning.

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Authors: Morten Stigaard Laursen, Rasmus Nyholm Jørgensen, Henrik Skov Midtiby, Anders Krogh Mortensen, Sanmohan Baby

Abstract:

This work contributes a statistical model and simulation framework yielding the best estimate possible for the potential herbicide reduction when using the MoDiCoVi algorithm all the while requiring a efficacy comparable to conventional spraying. In June 2013 a maize field located in Denmark were seeded. The field was divided into parcels which was assigned to one of two main groups: 1) Control, consisting of subgroups of no spray and full dose spraty; 2) MoDiCoVi algorithm subdivided into five different leaf cover thresholds for spray activation. In addition approximately 25% of the parcels were seeded with additional weeds perpendicular to the maize rows. In total 299 parcels were randomly assigned with the 28 different treatment combinations. In the statistical analysis, bootstrapping was used for balancing the number of replicates. The achieved potential herbicide savings was found to be 70% to 95% depending on the initial weed coverage. However additional field trials covering more seasons and locations are needed to verify the generalisation of these results. There is a potential for further herbicide savings as the time interval between the first and second spraying session was not long enough for the weeds to turn yellow, instead they only stagnated in growth.

Keywords: Weed crop discrimination, macrosprayer, herbicide reduction, site-specific, sprayer-boom.

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Authors: Marwah Mohsin, Thomas Beach, Alan Kwan, Mahdi Ismail

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This paper describes the differences in views on sustainable development between the general public and experts in a developing country, Iraq. This paper will answer the question: How do the views of the public differ from the generally accepted view of experts in the context of sustainable urban development in Iraq? In order to answer this question, the views of both the public and the experts will be analysed. These results are taken from a public survey and a Delphi questionnaire. These will be analysed using statistical methods in order to identify the significant differences. This will enable investigation of the different perceptions between the public perceptions and the experts’ views towards urban sustainable development factors. This is important due to the fact that different viewpoints between policy-makers and the public will impact on the acceptance by the public of any future sustainable development work that is undertaken. The brief findings of the statistical analysis show that the views of both the public and the experts are considered different in most of the variables except six variables show no differences. Those variables are ‘The importance of establishing sustainable cities in Iraq’, ‘Mitigate traffic congestion’, ‘Waste recycling and separating’, ‘Use wastewater recycling’, ‘Parks and green spaces’, and ‘Promote investment’.

Keywords: Urban sustainable development, experts’ views, public views, statistical analysis.

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Authors: Shao-lun Zeng, Yu-long Ren

Abstract:

Benchmarking cleaner production performance is an effective way of pollution control and emission reduction in coal-fired power industry. A benchmarking method using two-stage super-efficiency data envelopment analysis for coal-fired power plants is proposed – firstly, to improve the cleaner production performance of DEA-inefficient or weakly DEA-efficient plants, then to select the benchmark from performance-improved power plants. An empirical study is carried out with the survey data of 24 coal-fired power plants. The result shows that in the first stage the performance of 16 plants is DEA-efficient and that of 8 plants is relatively inefficient. The target values for improving DEA-inefficient plants are acquired by projection analysis. The efficient performance of 24 power plants and the benchmarking plant is achieved in the second stage. The two-stage benchmarking method is practical to select the optimal benchmark in the cleaner production of coal-fired power industry and will continuously improve plants- cleaner production performance.

Keywords: benchmarking, cleaner production performance, coal-fired power plant, super-efficiency data envelopment analysis

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Authors: Sung-yong Choi, Woo-tai Jung, Young-hwan Park

Abstract:

This study intends to improve the bond performance of the polypropylene fiber used as reinforcing fiber for concrete by changing its shape into double crimped type through the enhancement its fabrication process. The bond performance of such double crimped fiber is evaluated by applying the JCI SF-8 (dog-bone shape) testing method. The test results reveal that the double crimped fiber develops bond performance improved by more than 19% compared to the conventional crimped type fiber. 

Keywords: Bond, Polypropylene, Fiber reinforcement, Macro fiber, Shape change.

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Authors: K. Schmidt, Z. Miodrag, C. Geiger

Abstract:

Performance Measurement is still a difficult task for forwarding companies. This is caused on the one hand by missing resources and on the other hand by missing tools. The research project “Management Information System for Logistics Service Providers" aims for closing the gap between needed and disposable solutions. Core of the project is the development

Keywords: Forwarder, Logistics, Management Information, Performance Measurement.

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Authors: K. Atashgar

Abstract:

When an assignable cause(s) manifests itself to a multivariate process and the process shifts to an out-of-control condition, a root-cause analysis should be initiated by quality engineers to identify and eliminate the assignable cause(s) affected the process. A root-cause analysis in a multivariate process is more complex compared to a univariate process. In the case of a process involved several correlated variables an effective root-cause analysis can be only experienced when it is possible to identify the required knowledge including the out-of-control condition, the change point, and the variable(s) responsible to the out-of-control condition, all simultaneously. Although literature addresses different schemes to monitor multivariate processes, one can find few scientific reports focused on all the required knowledge. To the best of the author’s knowledge this is the first time that a multi task model based on artificial neural network (ANN) is reported to monitor all the required knowledge at the same time for a multivariate process with more than two correlated quality characteristics. The performance of the proposed scheme is evaluated numerically when different step shifts affect the mean vector. Average run length is used to investigate the performance of the proposed multi task model. The simulated results indicate the multi task scheme performs all the required knowledge effectively.

Keywords: Artificial neural network, Multivariate process, Statistical process control, Change point.

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Authors: N. Sopipan

Abstract:

In this paper, we study the rainfall using a time series for weather stations in Nakhon Ratchasima province in Thailand by various statistical methods to enable us to analyse the behaviour of rainfall in the study areas. Time-series analysis is an important tool in modelling and forecasting rainfall. The ARIMA and Holt-Winter models were built on the basis of exponential smoothing. All the models proved to be adequate. Therefore it is possible to give information that can help decision makers establish strategies for the proper planning of agriculture, drainage systems and other water resource applications in Nakhon Ratchasima province. We obtained the best performance from forecasting with the ARIMA Model(1,0,1)(1,0,1)12.

Keywords: ARIMA Models, Exponential Smoothing, Holt- Winter model.

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Authors: Yang Chengmei

Abstract:

In this paper, taking Chinese Nanjing Metro ALSTOM vehicle synthesis brake as an example, the subway with synthetic brake shoe formula components of final product performance, has done a lot of research and performance test, final is drawn with hybrid fiber as reinforcing material, modified phenolic resin as matrix material, and then filling friction modifier performance, by the hot pressing process made a new type of domestic subway brake shoe. The product of the test performance indicators that can replace the similar foreign products.

Keywords: Metro, synthetic brake shoe, component analysis, formula research.

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Authors: Ssu-Han Chen, Der-Baau Perng

Abstract:

Molding process in IC manufacturing secures chips against the harms done by hot, moisture or other external forces. While a chip was being molded,defects like cracks, dilapidation, or voids may be embedding on the molding surface. The molding surfaces the study poises to treat and the ones on the market, though, differ in the surface where texture similar to defects is everywhere. Manual inspection usually passes over low-contrast cracks or voids; hence an automatic optical inspection system for molding surface is necessary. The proposed system is consisted of a CCD, a coaxial light, a back light as well as a motion control unit. Based on the property of statistical textures of the molding surface, a series of digital image processing and classification procedure is carried out. After training of the parameter associated with above algorithm, result of the experiment suggests that the accuracy rate is up to 93.75%, contributing to the inspection quality of IC molding surface.

Keywords: Molding surface, machine vision, statistical texture, discrete Fourier transformation.

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Authors: Daniel A. Montoya, Marta L. Tostes

Abstract:

This investigation aims at analyzing and determining the relation between two very important variables in the human resource management: The organizational climate and the performance assessment. This study aims at contributing with knowledge in the search of the relation between the mentioned variables because the literature still does not provide solid evidence to this respect and the cases revised are incipient to reach conclusions enabling a typology about this relation.To this regard, a correlational and cross-sectional perspective was adopted in which quantitative and qualitative techniques were chosen with the total of the workers of the tourist service company PTS Peru. In order to measure the organizational climate, the OCQ (Organization Climate Questionnaire) from was used; it has 50 items and measures 9 dimensions of the Organizational Climate. Also, to assess performance, a questionnaire with 21 items and 6 dimensions was designed. As a means of assessment, a focus group was prepared and was applied to a worker in every area of the company. Additionally, interviews to human resources experts were conducted. The results of the investigation show a clear relation between the organizational climate and the personnel performance assessment as well as a relation between the nine dimensions of the organizational climate and the work performance in general and with some of its dimensions.

Keywords: Job performance, human resource management, organization climate, performance assessment.

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Authors: Mohammad Shams Esfand Abadi, John Hakon Husøy

Abstract:

Employing a recently introduced unified adaptive filter theory, we show how the performance of a large number of important adaptive filter algorithms can be predicted within a general framework in nonstationary environment. This approach is based on energy conservation arguments and does not need to assume a Gaussian or white distribution for the regressors. This general performance analysis can be used to evaluate the mean square performance of the Least Mean Square (LMS) algorithm, its normalized version (NLMS), the family of Affine Projection Algorithms (APA), the Recursive Least Squares (RLS), the Data-Reusing LMS (DR-LMS), its normalized version (NDR-LMS), the Block Least Mean Squares (BLMS), the Block Normalized LMS (BNLMS), the Transform Domain Adaptive Filters (TDAF) and the Subband Adaptive Filters (SAF) in nonstationary environment. Also, we establish the general expressions for the steady-state excess mean square in this environment for all these adaptive algorithms. Finally, we demonstrate through simulations that these results are useful in predicting the adaptive filter performance.

Keywords: Adaptive filter, general framework, energy conservation, mean-square performance, nonstationary environment.

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Authors: Milad Eghtedari Naeini, Gholamreza Heravi

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In this paper, based on the past project cost and time performance, a model for forecasting project cost performance is developed. This study presents a probabilistic project control concept to assure an acceptable forecast of project cost performance. In this concept project activities are classified into sub-groups entitled control accounts. Then obtain the Stochastic S-Curve (SS-Curve), for each sub-group and the project SS-Curve is obtained by summing sub-groups- SS-Curves. In this model, project cost uncertainties are considered through Beta distribution functions of the project activities costs required to complete the project at every selected time sections through project accomplishment, which are extracted from a variety of sources. Based on this model, after a percentage of the project progress, the project performance is measured via Earned Value Management to adjust the primary cost probability distribution functions. Then, accordingly the future project cost performance is predicted by using the Monte-Carlo simulation method.

Keywords: Monte Carlo method, Probabilistic model, Project forecasting, Stochastic S-curve

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Authors: Luminita Dumitriu, Cristina Segal, Marian Craciun, Adina Cocu, Lucian P. Georgescu

Abstract:

There are several approaches in trying to solve the Quantitative 1Structure-Activity Relationship (QSAR) problem. These approaches are based either on statistical methods or on predictive data mining. Among the statistical methods, one should consider regression analysis, pattern recognition (such as cluster analysis, factor analysis and principal components analysis) or partial least squares. Predictive data mining techniques use either neural networks, or genetic programming, or neuro-fuzzy knowledge. These approaches have a low explanatory capability or non at all. This paper attempts to establish a new approach in solving QSAR problems using descriptive data mining. This way, the relationship between the chemical properties and the activity of a substance would be comprehensibly modeled.

Keywords: association rules, classification, data mining, Quantitative Structure - Activity Relationship.

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Authors: Amiel Satvedi, Richard Pyne

Abstract:

Injuries in professional sports occur on a regular basis. Some may be minor while others can cause huge impact on a player’s career and earning potential. In soccer, there is a high risk of players picking up injuries during game time. This research work seeks to help soccer players reduce the risk of getting injured by predicting the likelihood of injury while playing in the near future and then providing recommendations for intervention. The injury prediction tool will use a soccer player’s number of minutes played on the field, number of appearances, distance covered and performance data for the current and previous seasons as variables to conduct statistical analysis and provide injury predictive results using a machine learning linear regression model.

Keywords: Injury predictor, soccer injury prevention, machine learning in soccer, big data in soccer.

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