Search results for: Modeling and network analysis
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 11906

Search results for: Modeling and network analysis

11576 An Enhanced Artificial Neural Network for Air Temperature Prediction

Authors: Brian A. Smith, Ronald W. McClendon, Gerrit Hoogenboom

Abstract:

The mitigation of crop loss due to damaging freezes requires accurate air temperature prediction models. An improved model for temperature prediction in Georgia was developed by including information on seasonality and modifying parameters of an existing artificial neural network model. Alternative models were compared by instantiating and training multiple networks for each model. The inclusion of up to 24 hours of prior weather information and inputs reflecting the day of year were among improvements that reduced average four-hour prediction error by 0.18°C compared to the prior model. Results strongly suggest model developers should instantiate and train multiple networks with different initial weights to establish appropriate model parameters.

Keywords: Time-series forecasting, weather modeling.

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11575 Retaining Users in a Commercially-Supported Social Network

Authors: Sasiphan Nitayaprapha

Abstract:

A commercially-supported social network has become an emerging channel for an organization to communicate with and provide services to customers. The success of the commercially-supported social network depends on the ability of the organization to keep the customers in participating in the network. Drawing from the theories of information adoption, information systems continuance, and web usability, the author develops a model to explore how a commercially-supported social network can encourage customers to continue participating and using the information in the network. The theoretical model will be proved through an online survey of customers using the commercially-supported social networking sites of several high technology companies operating in the same sector. The result will be compared with previous studies to learn about the explanatory power of the research model, and to identify the main factors determining users’ intention to continue using a commercially-supported social network. Theoretical and practical implications and limitations are discussed.

Keywords: Social network, Information adoption, Information systems continuance, Web usability, User satisfaction.

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11574 Neural Network Tuned Fuzzy Controller for MIMO System

Authors: Seema Chopra, R. Mitra, Vijay Kumar

Abstract:

In this paper, a neural network tuned fuzzy controller is proposed for controlling Multi-Input Multi-Output (MIMO) systems. For the convenience of analysis, the structure of MIMO fuzzy controller is divided into single input single-output (SISO) controllers for controlling each degree of freedom. Secondly, according to the characteristics of the system-s dynamics coupling, an appropriate coupling fuzzy controller is incorporated to improve the performance. The simulation analysis on a two-level mass–spring MIMO vibration system is carried out and results show the effectiveness of the proposed fuzzy controller. The performance though improved, the computational time and memory used is comparatively higher, because it has four fuzzy reasoning blocks and number may increase in case of other MIMO system. Then a fuzzy neural network is designed from a set of input-output training data to reduce the computing burden during implementation. This control strategy can not only simplify the implementation problem of fuzzy control, but also reduce computational time and consume less memory.

Keywords: Fuzzy Control, Neural Network, MIMO System, Optimization of Membership functions.

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11573 A Prediction Model for Dynamic Responses of Building from Earthquake Based on Evolutionary Learning

Authors: Kyu Jin Kim, Byung Kwan Oh, Hyo Seon Park

Abstract:

The seismic responses-based structural health monitoring system has been performed to prevent seismic damage. Structural seismic damage of building is caused by the instantaneous stress concentration which is related with dynamic characteristic of earthquake. Meanwhile, seismic response analysis to estimate the dynamic responses of building demands significantly high computational cost. To prevent the failure of structural members from the characteristic of the earthquake and the significantly high computational cost for seismic response analysis, this paper presents an artificial neural network (ANN) based prediction model for dynamic responses of building considering specific time length. Through the measured dynamic responses, input and output node of the ANN are formed by the length of specific time, and adopted for the training. In the model, evolutionary radial basis function neural network (ERBFNN), that radial basis function network (RBFN) is integrated with evolutionary optimization algorithm to find variables in RBF, is implemented. The effectiveness of the proposed model is verified through an analytical study applying responses from dynamic analysis for multi-degree of freedom system to training data in ERBFNN.

Keywords: Structural health monitoring, dynamic response, artificial neural network, radial basis function network, genetic algorithm.

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11572 Virtualization Technology as a Tool for Teaching Computer Networks

Authors: Dalibor Dobrilovic, Borislav Odadžic

Abstract:

In this paper is being described a possible use of virtualization technology in teaching computer networks. The virtualization can be used as a suitable tool for creating virtual network laboratories, supplementing the real laboratories and network simulation software in teaching networking concepts. It will be given a short description of characteristic projects in the area of virtualization technology usage in network simulation, network experiments and engineering education. A method for implementing laboratory has also been explained, together with possible laboratory usage and design of laboratory exercises. At the end, the laboratory test results of virtual laboratory are presented as well.

Keywords: Computer network simulation software, teaching networking concepts, virtual network laboratory, virtualization technology.

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11571 Virtual Routing Function Allocation Method for Minimizing Total Network Power Consumption

Authors: Kenichiro Hida, Shin-Ichi Kuribayashi

Abstract:

In a conventional network, most network devices, such as routers, are dedicated devices that do not have much variation in capacity. In recent years, a new concept of network functions virtualisation (NFV) has come into use. The intention is to implement a variety of network functions with software on general-purpose servers and this allows the network operator to select their capacities and locations without any constraints. This paper focuses on the allocation of NFV-based routing functions which are one of critical network functions, and presents the virtual routing function allocation algorithm that minimizes the total power consumption. In addition, this study presents the useful allocation policy of virtual routing functions, based on an evaluation with a ladder-shaped network model. This policy takes the ratio of the power consumption of a routing function to that of a circuit and traffic distribution between areas into consideration. Furthermore, the present paper shows that there are cases where the use of NFV-based routing functions makes it possible to reduce the total power consumption dramatically, in comparison to a conventional network, in which it is not economically viable to distribute small-capacity routing functions.

Keywords: Virtual routing function, NFV, resource allocation, minimum power consumption.

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11570 Bi-Criteria Latency Optimization of Intra-and Inter-Autonomous System Traffic Engineering

Authors: K. Vidya, V.Rhymend Uthariaraj

Abstract:

Traffic Engineering (TE) is the process of controlling how traffic flows through a network in order to facilitate efficient and reliable network operations while simultaneously optimizing network resource utilization and traffic performance. TE improves the management of data traffic within a network and provides the better utilization of network resources. Many research works considers intra and inter Traffic Engineering separately. But in reality one influences the other. Hence the effective network performances of both inter and intra Autonomous Systems (AS) are not optimized properly. To achieve a better Joint Optimization of both Intra and Inter AS TE, we propose a joint Optimization technique by considering intra-AS features during inter – AS TE and vice versa. This work considers the important criterion say latency within an AS and between ASes. and proposes a Bi-Criteria Latency optimization model. Hence an overall network performance can be improved by considering this jointoptimization technique in terms of Latency.

Keywords: Inter-Domain Routing , Measurement, OptimizationPerformance, Traffic Engineering.

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11569 An Empirical Analysis of the Influence of Application Experience on Working Methods of Process Modelers

Authors: A. Nielen, S. Mütze-Niewöhner, C. M. Schlick

Abstract:

In view of growing competition in the service sector, services are as much in need of modeling, analysis and improvement as business or working processes. Graphical process models are important means to capture process-related know-how for an effective management of the service process. In this contribution, a human performance analysis of process model development paying special attention to model development time and the working method was conducted. It was found that modelers with higher application experience need significantly less time for mental activities than modelers with lower application experience, spend more time on labeling graphical elements, and achieved higher process model quality in terms of activity label quality.

Keywords: Model quality, predetermined motion time system, process modeling, working method.

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11568 Modelling and Simulation of the Freezing Systems and Heat Pumps Using Unisim® Design

Authors: C. Patrascioiu

Abstract:

The paper describes the modeling and simulation of the heat pumps domain processes. The main objective of the study is the use of the heat pump in propene–propane distillation processes. The modeling and simulation instrument is the Unisim® Design simulator. The paper is structured in three parts: An overview of the compressing gases, the modeling and simulation of the freezing systems, and the modeling and simulation of the heat pumps. For each of these systems, there are presented the Unisim® Design simulation diagrams, the input–output system structure and the numerical results. Future studies will consider modeling and simulation of the propene–propane distillation process with heat pump.

Keywords: Distillation, heat pump, simulation, Unisim Design.

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11567 Dissecting Big Trajectory Data to Analyse Road Network Travel Efficiency

Authors: Rania Alshikhe, Vinita Jindal

Abstract:

Digital innovation has played a crucial role in managing smart transportation. For this, big trajectory data collected from trav-eling vehicles, such as taxis through installed global positioning sys-tem (GPS)-enabled devices can be utilized. It offers an unprecedented opportunity to trace the movements of vehicles in fine spatiotemporal granularity. This paper aims to explore big trajectory data to measure the travel efficiency of road networks using the proposed statistical travel efficiency measure (STEM) across an entire city. Further, it identifies the cause of low travel efficiency by proposed least square approximation network-based causality exploration (LANCE). Finally, the resulting data analysis reveals the causes of low travel efficiency, along with the road segments that need to be optimized to improve the traffic conditions and thus minimize the average travel time from given point A to point B in the road network. Obtained results show that our proposed approach outperforms the baseline algorithms for measuring the travel efficiency of the road network.

Keywords: GPS trajectory, road network, taxi trips, digital map, big data, STEM, LANCE

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11566 Numerical Evaluation of Shear Strength for Cold-Formed Steel Shear Wall Panel

Authors: Rouaz Idriss, Bourahla Nour-Eddine, Kahlouche Farah, Rafa Sid Ali

Abstract:

The stability of structures made of light-gauge steel depends highly on the contribution of Shear Wall Panel (SWP) systems under horizontal forces due to wind or earthquake loads. Steel plate sheathing is often used with these panels made of cold formed steel (CFS) to improve its shear strength. In order to predict the shear strength resistance, two methods are presented in this paper. In the first method, the steel plate sheathing is modeled with plats strip taking into account only the tension and compression force due to the horizontal load, where both track and stud are modeled according to the geometrical and mechanical characteristics of the specimen used in the experiments. The theoretical background and empirical formulations of this method are presented in this paper. However, the second method is based on a micro modeling of the cold formed steel Shear Wall Panel “CFS-SWP” using Abaqus software. A nonlinear analysis was carried out with an in-plan monotonic load. Finally, the comparison between these two methods shows that the micro modeling with Abaqus gives better prediction of shear resistance of SWP than strips method. However, the latter is easier and less time consuming than the micro modeling method.

Keywords: Cold Formed Steel Shear Wall Panel, CFS-SWP, micro modeling, nonlinear analysis, strip method.

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11565 A Multimedia Telemonitoring Network for Healthcare

Authors: Hariton N. Costin, Sorin Puscoci, Cristian Rotariu, Bogdan Dionisie, Marinela C. Cimpoesu

Abstract:

TELMES project aims to develop a securized multimedia system devoted to medical consultation teleservices. It will be finalized with a pilot system for a regional telecenters network that connects local telecenters, having as support multimedia platforms. This network will enable the implementation of complex medical teleservices (teleconsulations, telemonitoring, homecare, urgency medicine, etc.) for a broader range of patients and medical professionals, mainly for family doctors and those people living in rural or isolated regions. Thus, a multimedia, scalable network, based on modern IT&C paradigms, will result. It will gather two inter-connected regional telecenters, in Iaşi and Piteşti, Romania, each of them also permitting local connections of hospitals, diagnostic and treatment centers, as well as local networks of family doctors, patients, even educational entities. As communications infrastructure, we aim to develop a combined fixmobile- internet (broadband) links. Other possible communication environments will be GSM/GPRS/3G and radio waves. The electrocardiogram (ECG) acquisition, internet transmission and local analysis, using embedded technologies, was already successfully done for patients- telemonitoring.

Keywords: Healthcare, telemedicine, telemonitoring, ECG analysis.

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11564 Modeling and Simulation of a Hybrid System Solar Panel and Wind Turbine in the Quingeo Heritage Center in Ecuador

Authors: Juan Portoviejo Brito, Daniel Icaza Alvarez, Christian Castro Samaniego

Abstract:

In this article, we present the modeling, simulations, and energy conversion analysis of the solar-wind system for the Quingeo Heritage Center in Ecuador. A numerical model was constructed based on the 19 equations, it was coded in MATLAB R2017a, and the results were compared with the experimental data of the site. The model is built with the purpose of using it as a computer development for the optimization of resources and designs of hybrid systems in the Parish of Quingeo and its surroundings. The model obtained a fairly similar pattern compared to the data and curves obtained in the field experimentally and detailed in manuscript. It is important to indicate that this analysis has been carried out so that in the near future one or two of these power generation systems can be exploited in a massive way according to the budget assigned by the Parish GAD of Quingeo or other national or international organizations with the purpose of preserving this unique colonial helmet in Ecuador.

Keywords: Hybrid system, wind turbine, modeling, simulation, Smart Grid, Quingeo Azuay Ecuador.

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11563 Design and Implementation of Rule-based Expert System for Fault Management

Authors: Su Myat Marlar Soe, May Paing Paing Zaw

Abstract:

It has been defined that the “network is the system". This implies providing levels of service, reliability, predictability and availability that are commensurate with or better than those that individual computers provide today. To provide this requires integrated network management for interconnected networks of heterogeneous devices covering both the local campus. In this paper we are addressing a framework to effectively deal with this issue. It consists of components and interactions between them which are required to perform the service fault management. A real-world scenario is used to derive the requirements which have been applied to the component identification. An analysis of existing frameworks and approaches with respect to their applicability to the framework is also carried out.

Keywords: To diagnose the possible network faults by using thepredetermined rules.

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11562 Analysis of Causality between Defect Causes Using Association Rule Mining

Authors: Sangdeok Lee, Sangwon Han, Changtaek Hyun

Abstract:

Construction defects are major components that result in negative impacts on project performance including schedule delays and cost overruns. Since construction defects generally occur when a few associated causes combine, a thorough understanding of defect causality is required in order to more systematically prevent construction defects. To address this issue, this paper uses association rule mining (ARM) to quantify the causality between defect causes, and social network analysis (SNA) to find indirect causality among them. The suggested approach is validated with 350 defect instances from concrete works in 32 projects in Korea. The results show that the interrelationships revealed by the approach reflect the characteristics of the concrete task and the important causes that should be prevented.

Keywords: Causality, defect causes, social network analysis, association rule mining.

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11561 A General Model for Amino Acid Interaction Networks

Authors: Omar Gaci, Stefan Balev

Abstract:

In this paper we introduce the notion of protein interaction network. This is a graph whose vertices are the protein-s amino acids and whose edges are the interactions between them. Using a graph theory approach, we identify a number of properties of these networks. We compare them to the general small-world network model and we analyze their hierarchical structure.

Keywords: interaction network, protein structure, small-world network.

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11560 Analysis of Target Location Estimation in High Performance Radar System

Authors: Jin-Hyeok Kim, Won-Chul Choi, Seung-Ri Jin, Dong-Jo Park

Abstract:

In this paper, an analysis of a target location estimation system using the best linear unbiased estimator (BLUE) for high performance radar systems is presented. In synthetic environments, we are here concerned with three key elements of radar system modeling, which makes radar systems operates accurately in strategic situation in virtual ground. Radar Cross Section (RCS) modeling is used to determine the actual amount of electromagnetic waves that are reflected from a tactical object. Pattern Propagation Factor (PPF) is an attenuation coefficient of the radar equation that contains the reflection from the surface of the earth, the diffraction, the refraction and scattering by the atmospheric environment. Clutter is the unwanted echoes of electronic systems. For the data fusion of output results from radar detection in synthetic environment, BLUE is used and compared with the mean values of each simulation results. Simulation results demonstrate the performance of the radar system.

Keywords: Best linear unbiased estimator (BLUE) , data fusion, radar system modeling, target location estimation

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11559 Optimum Neural Network Architecture for Precipitation Prediction of Myanmar

Authors: Khaing Win Mar, Thinn Thu Naing

Abstract:

Nowadays, precipitation prediction is required for proper planning and management of water resources. Prediction with neural network models has received increasing interest in various research and application domains. However, it is difficult to determine the best neural network architecture for prediction since it is not immediately obvious how many input or hidden nodes are used in the model. In this paper, neural network model is used as a forecasting tool. The major aim is to evaluate a suitable neural network model for monthly precipitation mapping of Myanmar. Using 3-layerd neural network models, 100 cases are tested by changing the number of input and hidden nodes from 1 to 10 nodes, respectively, and only one outputnode used. The optimum model with the suitable number of nodes is selected in accordance with the minimum forecast error. In measuring network performance using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), experimental results significantly show that 3 inputs-10 hiddens-1 output architecture model gives the best prediction result for monthly precipitation in Myanmar.

Keywords: Precipitation prediction, monthly precipitation, neural network models, Myanmar.

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11558 Prediction of Optimum Cutting Parameters to obtain Desired Surface in Finish Pass end Milling of Aluminium Alloy with Carbide Tool using Artificial Neural Network

Authors: Anjan Kumar Kakati, M. Chandrasekaran, Amitava Mandal, Amit Kumar Singh

Abstract:

End milling process is one of the common metal cutting operations used for machining parts in manufacturing industry. It is usually performed at the final stage in manufacturing a product and surface roughness of the produced job plays an important role. In general, the surface roughness affects wear resistance, ductility, tensile, fatigue strength, etc., for machined parts and cannot be neglected in design. In the present work an experimental investigation of end milling of aluminium alloy with carbide tool is carried out and the effect of different cutting parameters on the response are studied with three-dimensional surface plots. An artificial neural network (ANN) is used to establish the relationship between the surface roughness and the input cutting parameters (i.e., spindle speed, feed, and depth of cut). The Matlab ANN toolbox works on feed forward back propagation algorithm is used for modeling purpose. 3-12-1 network structure having minimum average prediction error found as best network architecture for predicting surface roughness value. The network predicts surface roughness for unseen data and found that the result/prediction is better. For desired surface finish of the component to be produced there are many different combination of cutting parameters are available. The optimum cutting parameter for obtaining desired surface finish, to maximize tool life is predicted. The methodology is demonstrated, number of problems are solved and algorithm is coded in Matlab®.

Keywords: End milling, Surface roughness, Neural networks.

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11557 A Robust Software for Advanced Analysis of Space Steel Frames

Authors: Viet-Hung Truong, Seung-Eock Kim

Abstract:

This paper presents a robust software package for practical advanced analysis of space steel framed structures. The pre- and post-processors of the presented software package are coded in the C++ programming language while the solver is written by using the FORTRAN programming language. A user-friendly graphical interface of the presented software is developed to facilitate the modeling process and result interpretation of the problem. The solver employs the stability functions for capturing the second-order effects to minimize modeling and computational time. Both the plastic-hinge and fiber-hinge beam-column elements are available in the presented software. The generalized displacement control method is adopted to solve the nonlinear equilibrium equations.

Keywords: Advanced analysis, beam-column, fiber-hinge, plastic hinge, steel frame.

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11556 Social Network Analysis & Information Disclosure: A Case Study

Authors: Shilpi Sharma, J. S. Sodhi

Abstract:

The advent of social networking technologies has been met with mixed reactions in academic and corporate circles around the world. This study explored the influence of social network in current era, the relation being maintained between the Social networking site and its user by the extent of use, benefits and latest technologies. The study followed a descriptive research design wherein a questionnaire was used as the main research tool. The data collected was analyzed using SPSS 16. Data was gathered from 1205 users and analyzed in accordance with the objectives of the study. The analysis of the results seem to suggest that the majority of users were mainly using Facebook, despite of concerns raised about the disclosure of personal information on social network sites, users continue to disclose huge quantity of personal information, they find that reading privacy policy is time consuming and changes made can result into improper settings.

Keywords: Social Networking Sites, Privacy Policy, Disclosure of Personal Information.

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11555 Estimating Localization Network Node Positions with a Multi-Robot System

Authors: Mikko Elomaa, Aarne Halme

Abstract:

A novel method using bearing-only SLAM to estimate node positions of a localization network is proposed. A group of simple robots are used to estimate the position of each node. Each node has a unique ID, which it can communicate to a robot close by. Initially the node IDs and positions are unknown. A case example using RFID technology in the localization network is introduced.

Keywords: Localization network, Multi-robot, RFID, SLAM

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11554 Aquatic Modeling: An Interplay between Scales

Authors: Christina G. Siontorou

Abstract:

This paper presents an integrated knowledge-based approach to multi-scale modeling of aquatic systems, with a view to enhancing predictive power and aiding environmental management and policy-making. The basic phases of this approach have been exemplified in the case of a bay in Saronicos Gulf (Attiki, Greece). The results showed a significant problem with rising phytoplankton blooms linked to excessive microbial growth, arisen mostly due to increased nitrogen inflows; therefore, the nitrification/denitrification processes of the benthic and water column sub-systems have provided the quality variables to be monitored for assessing environmental status. It is thereby demonstrated that the proposed approach facilitates modeling choices and implementation option decisions, while it provides substantial support for knowledge and experience capitalization in long-term water management.

Keywords: Aquatic ecosystem, integrated modeling, multi-scale modeling, ontological platform.

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11553 Rock Textures Classification Based on Textural and Spectral Features

Authors: Tossaporn Kachanubal, Somkait Udomhunsakul

Abstract:

In this paper, we proposed a method to classify each type of natural rock texture. Our goal is to classify 26 classes of rock textures. First, we extract five features of each class by using principle component analysis combining with the use of applied spatial frequency measurement. Next, the effective node number of neural network was tested. We used the most effective neural network in classification process. The results from this system yield quite high in recognition rate. It is shown that high recognition rate can be achieved in separation of 26 stone classes.

Keywords: Texture classification, SFM, neural network, rock texture classification.

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11552 Topology Influence on TCP Congestion Control Performance in Multi-hop Ad Hoc Wireless

Authors: Haniza N., Md Khambari, M. N, Shahrin S., Adib M.Monzer Habbal, Suhaidi Hassan

Abstract:

Wireless ad hoc nodes are freely and dynamically self-organize in communicating with others. Each node can act as host or router. However it actually depends on the capability of nodes in terms of its current power level, signal strength, number of hops, routing protocol, interference and others. In this research, a study was conducted to observe the effect of hops count over different network topologies that contribute to TCP Congestion Control performance degradation. To achieve this objective, a simulation using NS-2 with different topologies have been evaluated. The comparative analysis has been discussed based on standard observation metrics: throughput, delay and packet loss ratio. As a result, there is a relationship between types of topology and hops counts towards the performance of ad hoc network. In future, the extension study will be carried out to investigate the effect of different error rate and background traffic over same topologies.

Keywords: NS-2, network topology, network performance, multi-hops

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11551 Prioritizing Service Quality Dimensions:A Neural Network Approach

Authors: A. Golmohammadi, B. Jahandideh

Abstract:

One of the determinants of a firm-s prosperity is the customers- perceived service quality and satisfaction. While service quality is wide in scope, and consists of various dimensions, there may be differences in the relative importance of these dimensions in affecting customers- overall satisfaction of service quality. Identifying the relative rank of different dimensions of service quality is very important in that it can help managers to find out which service dimensions have a greater effect on customers- overall satisfaction. Such an insight will consequently lead to more effective resource allocation which will finally end in higher levels of customer satisfaction. This issue –despite its criticality- has not received enough attention so far. Therefore, using a sample of 240 bank customers in Iran, an artificial neural network is developed to address this gap in the literature. As customers- evaluation of service quality is a subjective process, artificial neural networks –as a brain metaphor- may appear to have a potentiality to model such a complicated process. Proposing a neural network which is able to predict the customers- overall satisfaction of service quality with a promising level of accuracy is the first contribution of this study. In addition, prioritizing the service quality dimensions in affecting customers- overall satisfaction –by using sensitivity analysis of neural network- is the second important finding of this paper.

Keywords: service quality, customer satisfaction, relativeimportance, artificial neural network.

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11550 Scenario and Decision Analysis for Solar Energy in Egypt by 2035 Using Dynamic Bayesian Network

Authors: Rawaa H. El-Bidweihy, Hisham M. Abdelsalam, Ihab A. El-Khodary

Abstract:

Bayesian networks are now considered to be a promising tool in the field of energy with different applications. In this study, the aim was to indicate the states of a previous constructed Bayesian network related to the solar energy in Egypt and the factors affecting its market share, depending on the followed data distribution type for each factor, and using either the Z-distribution approach or the Chebyshev’s inequality theorem. Later on, the separate and the conditional probabilities of the states of each factor in the Bayesian network were derived, either from the collected and scrapped historical data or from estimations and past studies. Results showed that we could use the constructed model for scenario and decision analysis concerning forecasting the total percentage of the market share of the solar energy in Egypt by 2035 and using it as a stable renewable source for generating any type of energy needed. Also, it proved that whenever the use of the solar energy increases, the total costs decreases. Furthermore, we have identified different scenarios, such as the best, worst, 50/50, and most likely one, in terms of the expected changes in the percentage of the solar energy market share. The best scenario showed an 85% probability that the market share of the solar energy in Egypt will exceed 10% of the total energy market, while the worst scenario showed only a 24% probability that the market share of the solar energy in Egypt will exceed 10% of the total energy market. Furthermore, we applied policy analysis to check the effect of changing the controllable (decision) variable’s states acting as different scenarios, to show how it would affect the target nodes in the model. Additionally, the best environmental and economical scenarios were developed to show how other factors are expected to be, in order to affect the model positively. Additional evidence and derived probabilities were added for the weather dynamic nodes whose states depend on time, during the process of converting the Bayesian network into a dynamic Bayesian network.

Keywords: Bayesian network, Chebyshev, decision variable, dynamic Bayesian network, Z-distribution

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11549 ANN Modeling for Cadmium Biosorption from Potable Water Using a Packed-Bed Column Process

Authors: Dariush Jafari, Seyed Ali Jafari

Abstract:

The recommended limit for cadmium concentration in potable water is less than 0.005 mg/L. A continuous biosorption process using indigenous red seaweed, Gracilaria corticata, was performed to remove cadmium from the potable water. The process was conducted under fixed conditions and the breakthrough curves were achieved for three consecutive sorption-desorption cycles. A modeling based on Artificial Neural Network (ANN) was employed to fit the experimental breakthrough data. In addition, a simplified semi empirical model, Thomas, was employed for this purpose. It was found that ANN well described the experimental data (R2>0.99) while the Thomas prediction were a bit less successful with R2>0.97. The adjusted design parameters using the nonlinear form of Thomas model was in a good agreement with the experimentally obtained ones. The results approve the capability of ANN to predict the cadmium concentration in potable water.

Keywords: ANN, biosorption, cadmium, packed-bed, potable water.

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11548 Modeling of Catalyst Deactivation in Catalytic Wet Air Oxidation of Phenol in Fixed Bed Three-Phase Reactor

Authors: Akram Golestani, Mohammad Kazemeini, Farhad Khorasheh, Moslem Fattahi

Abstract:

Modeling and simulation of fixed bed three-phase catalytic reactors are considered for wet air catalytic oxidation of phenol to perform a comparative numerical analysis between tricklebed and packed-bubble column reactors. The modeling involves material balances both for the catalyst particle as well as for different fluid phases. Catalyst deactivation is also considered in a transient reactor model to investigate the effects of various parameters including reactor temperature on catalyst deactivation. The simulation results indicated that packed-bubble columns were slightly superior in performance than trickle beds. It was also found that reaction temperature was the most effective parameter in catalyst deactivation.

Keywords: Catalyst deactivation, Catalytic wet air oxidation, Trickle-bed, Wastewater.

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11547 Security Risk Analysis Based on the Policy Formalization and the Modeling of Big Systems

Authors: Luc Cessieux, French Navy, Adrien Derock, DCNS/IMATH

Abstract:

Security risk models have been successful in estimating the likelihood of attack for simple security threats. However, modeling complex system and their security risk is even a challenge. Many methods have been proposed to face this problem. Often difficult to manipulate, and not enough all-embracing they are not as famous as they should with administrators and deciders. We propose in this paper a new tool to model big systems on purpose. The software, takes into account attack threats and security strength.

Keywords: Security, risk management, threat, modelization.

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