Search results for: Early intervention

Authors: Peter Newton, Peter Newman, Stephen Glackin, Roman Trubka

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Pressures for urban redevelopment are intensifying in all large cities. A new logic for urban development is required – green urbanism – that provides a spatial framework for directing population and investment inwards to brownfields and greyfields precincts, rather than outwards to the greenfields. This represents both a major opportunity and a major challenge for city planners in pluralist liberal democracies. However, plans for more compact forms of urban redevelopment are stalling in the face of community resistance. A new paradigm and spatial planning platform is required that will support timely multi-level and multi-actor stakeholder engagement, resulting in the emergence of consensus plans for precinct-level urban regeneration capable of more rapid implementation. Using Melbourne, Australia as a case study, this paper addresses two of the urban intervention challenges – where and how – via the application of a 21st century planning tool ENVISION created for this purpose.

Keywords: Green urbanism, greyfields, planning tools, urban regeneration.

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Authors: Anna Romanova, Mojtaba Mahmoodian, Morteza A. Alani

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Concrete sewer pipes are known to suffer from a process of hydrogen sulfide gas induced sulfuric acid corrosion. This leads to premature pipe degradation, performance failure and collapses which in turn may lead to property and health damage. The above work reports on a field study undertaken in working sewer manholes where the parameters of effluent temperature and pH as well as ambient temperature and concentration of hydrogen sulfide were continuously measured over a period of two months. Early results suggest that effluent pH has no direct effect on hydrogen sulfide build up; on average the effluent temperature is 3.5°C greater than the ambient temperature inside the manhole and also it was observed that hydrogen sulfate concentration increases with increasing temperature.

Keywords: Concrete corrosion, hydrogen sulphide gas, temperature, sewer pipe.

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Authors: Manuela Ciocoiu, Laur Badescu, Oana Badulescu, Magda Badescu

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The research focuses on the effects of polyphenols extracted from Sambucus nigra fruit, using an experimental arterial hypertension pattern, as well as their influence on the oxidative stress. The results reveal the normalization of the reduced glutathion concentration, as well as a considerable reduction in the malondialdehide serum concentration by the polyphenolic protection. The rat blood pressure values were recorded using a CODATM system, which uses a non-invasive blood pressure measuring method. All the measured blood pressure components revealed a biostatistically significant (p<0.05) blood pressure drop between the AHT and the AHT+P groups. The results prove that oxidative stress is considerably lower, statistically speaking, in rats with hypertension but also provided with natural polyphenolic protection from Sambucus nigra fruits than in the rats belonging to the control group. In addition to the demonstrated antioxidant effects, natural polyphenols also have other biological properties that might contribute to the cardioprotective effects.

Keywords: Arterial hypertension, Oxidative stress, Sambucus nigra

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Authors: Orestis Κ. Efthymiou, Stavros T. Ponis

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In the last decade, a new industrial revolution seems to be emerging, supported -once again- by the rapid advancements of Information Technology in the areas of Machine-to-Machine (M2M) communication permitting large numbers of intelligent devices, e.g. sensors to communicate with each other and take decisions without any or minimum indirect human intervention. The advent of these technologies have triggered the emergence of a new category of hybrid (cyber-physical) manufacturing systems, combining advanced manufacturing techniques with innovative M2M applications based on the Internet of Things (IoT), under the umbrella term Industry 4.0. Even though the topic of Industry 4.0 has attracted much attention during the last few years, the attempts of providing a systematic literature review of the subject are scarce. In this paper, we present the authors’ initial study of the field with a special focus on the use and applications of Industry 4.0 principles in material handling automations and in-house logistics. Research shows that despite the vivid discussion and attractiveness of the subject, there are still many challenges and issues that have to be addressed before Industry 4.0 becomes standardized and widely applicable.

Keywords: Industry 4.0, internet of things, manufacturing systems, material handling, logistics.

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Authors: Ibrahim A. Aref, Tarek El-Mihoub, Khadiga Ben Musa

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This paper presents Carrier Sense Multiple Access (CSMA) communication models based on SoC design methodology. Such a model can be used to support the modeling of the complex wireless communication systems. Therefore, the use of such communication model is an important technique in the construction of high-performance communication. SystemC has been chosen because it provides a homogeneous design flow for complex designs (i.e. SoC and IP-based design). We use a swarm system to validate CSMA designed model and to show how advantages of incorporating communication early in the design process. The wireless communication created through the modeling of CSMA protocol that can be used to achieve communication between all the agents and to coordinate access to the shared medium (channel).

Keywords: SystemC, modeling, simulation, CSMA.

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Authors: Szilvia Gergely Seuss, Mihaela Nistor, Lilla Csáky, Péter Molnár

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In the frame of the European Union project entitled EU-Families and Adolescents Quit Tobacco (www.eufaqt.eu) focus group analysis has been carried out in Hungary to acquire qualitative information on attitudes towards smoking in groups of adolescents, parents and educators, respectively. It rendered to identify methods for smoking prevention/ intervention with family approach. The results explored the role of the family in smoking behaviour. Teachers do not feel responsibility in prevention or cessation of smoking. Adolescents are not aware of the addictive effect of the cigarette. Water pipe is popular among adolescent, therefore spreading of more information needed on the harmful effects of water pipe. We outlined the requirement for professionals to provide interventions. Partnership of EU-FAQT project has worked out antismoking interventions for adolescents and their families conducted by psychologists to ensure skill development to prevent and quit tobacco.

Keywords: Smoking of adolescents, family approach, focus group analysis, water pipe.

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Authors: E. Guercio, A. Marcengo, A. Rapp

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This paper draws a methodological framework adopted within an internal Telecomitalia project aimed to identify, on a user centred base, the potential interest towards a technological scenario aimed to extend on a personal bubble the typical communication and media fruition home environment. The problem is that involving user in the early stage of the development of such disruptive technology scenario asking users opinions on something that users actually do not manage even in a rough manner could lead to wrong or distorted results. For that reason we chose an approach that indirectly aim to understand users hidden needs in order to obtain a meaningful picture of the possible interest for a technological proposition non yet easily understandable.

Keywords: Personas, focus groups, scenarios, extended home environment, telecommunication, media.

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Authors: Peng Li, Chuanri Li, Tao Li

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Reliability allocation is quite important during early design and development stages for a system to apportion its specified reliability goal to subsystems. This paper improves the reliability fuzzy allocation method, and gives concrete processes on determining the factor and sub-factor sets, weight sets, judgment set, and multi-stage fuzzy evaluation. To determine the weight of factor and sub-factor sets, the modified trapezoidal numbers are proposed to reduce errors caused by subjective factors. To decrease the fuzziness in fuzzy division, an approximation method based on linear programming is employed. To compute the explicit values of fuzzy numbers, centroid method of defuzzification is considered. An example is provided to illustrate the application of the proposed reliability allocation method based on fuzzy arithmetic.

Keywords: Reliability allocation, fuzzy arithmetic, allocation weight.

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Authors: H. Junoh, K. Palanisamy, C. H. Yip, F. L. Pua

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This study investigates the influence of low temperature thermo-chemical pretreatment of organic food waste on performance of COD solubilisation. Both temperature and alkaline agent were reported to have effect on solubilizing any possible biomass including organic food waste. The three independent variables considered in this pretreatment were temperature (50-90oC), pretreatment time (30-120 minutes) and alkaline concentration, sodium hydroxide, NaOH (0.7-15 g/L). The maximal condition obtained were 90oC, 15 g/L NaOH for 2 hours. Solubilisation has potential in enhancing methane production by providing high amount of soluble components at early stage during anaerobic digestion.

Keywords: Food waste, pretreatments, respond surface methodology, ANOVA, anaerobic digestion.

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Authors: Danielle Klassen, Reiko Yeap, Margo Schmitt-Boshnick, Scott Oddie

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The development of the 7-week Alberta Happiness Basics program was initiated in 2010 in response to the need for community mental health programming. This provincial wide program aims to increase overall happiness and reduce negative thoughts and feelings through a positive psychology intervention. While the 7-week program has proven effective, a shortened 4-week program has additionally been developed to address client needs. In this study, participants were interviewed to determine if the 4- and 7-week programs had similar success of producing lasting behavior change at 3, 6, and 9 months post-program. A health quality of life (HQOL) measure was also used to compare the two programs and examine patient outcomes. Quantitative and qualitative analysis showed significant improvements in HQOL and sustainable behavior change for both programs. Findings indicate that the shorter, patient-centered program was effective in increasing happiness and reducing negative thoughts and feelings.

Keywords: Primary care, mental health, depression, short duration.

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Authors: S. Tarighat, F. Shateri

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This study explored the relationship between L2 Willingness to Communicate (WTC) of bilinguals and monolinguals in a foreign language using a snowball sampling method to collect questionnaire data from 200 bilinguals and monolinguals studying a foreign language (FL). The results indicated a higher willingness to communicate in a foreign language (WTC-FL) performed by bilinguals compared to that of the monolinguals with a weak significance. Yet a stronger significance was found in the relationship between the age of onset of bilingualism and WTC-FL. The researcher proposed that L2 WTC is indirectly influenced by knowledge of other languages, which can boost L2 confidence and reduce L2 anxiety and consequently lead to higher L2 WTC when learning a different L2. The study also found the age of onset of bilingualism to be a predictor of L2 WTC when learning a FL. The results emphasize the importance of bilingualism and early bilingualism in particular.

Keywords: Bilingualism, foreign language learning, L2 acquisition, willingness to communicate.

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Authors: T. Bovornvirakit, K. Viravaidya

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Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a new worldwide public health problem. A diagnosis of this disease using creatinine is still a problem in clinical practice. Therefore, a measurement of biomarkers responsible for AKI has received much attention in the past couple years. Cytokine interleukin-18 (IL-18) was reported as one of the early biomarkers for AKI. The most commonly used method to detect this biomarker is an immunoassay. This study used a planar platform to perform an immunoassay using fluorescence for detection. In this study, anti-IL-18 antibody was immobilized onto a microscope slide using a covalent binding method. Make-up samples were diluted at the concentration between 10 to 1000 pg/ml to create a calibration curve. The precision of the system was determined using a coefficient of variability (CV), which was found to be less than 10%. The performance of this immunoassay system was compared with the measurement from ELISA.

Keywords: Acute kidney injury, Acute renal failure, Antibody immobilization, Interleukin-18

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Authors: Jihyun Park

Abstract:

This research suggests that meaning in life or Ikigai can be associated with better academic performances in Japanese college students. To measure meaning in life in Japanese college students, the Ikigai questionnaire and the Meaning in Life Questionnaire (MLQ) are both used, and the survey was collected using Microsoft Teams Forms for a total of 80 Japanese college students. The data revealed that students who have a higher than a 3.0 grade point average (GPA) showed the highest score in both the Ikigai and MLQ. The participants with between a 2.0 and a 3.0 GPA reported lower scores in both MLQ and Ikigai than the previous participants. The group of students who have lower than a 2.0 GPA had the lowest scores for MLQ and Ikigai. This result can indicate that implementing meaning in life or Ikigai to early college students can bring about better academic performance, which also can improve students’ college life better as well.

Keywords: College students’ academic performance, Ikigai, meaning in life, purpose of life.

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Authors: Jawad Makki, Anne-Marie Alquier, Violaine Prince

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In this paper we propose an NLP-based method for Ontology Population from texts and apply it to semi automatic instantiate a Generic Knowledge Base (Generic Domain Ontology) in the risk management domain. The approach is semi-automatic and uses a domain expert intervention for validation. The proposed approach relies on a set of Instances Recognition Rules based on syntactic structures, and on the predicative power of verbs in the instantiation process. It is not domain dependent since it heavily relies on linguistic knowledge. A description of an experiment performed on a part of the ontology of the PRIMA1 project (supported by the European community) is given. A first validation of the method is done by populating this ontology with Chemical Fact Sheets from Environmental Protection Agency2. The results of this experiment complete the paper and support the hypothesis that relying on the predicative power of verbs in the instantiation process improves the performance.

Keywords: Information Extraction, Instance Recognition Rules, Ontology Population, Risk Management, Semantic analysis.

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Authors: H. Soleimanjahi, M. J. Nategh, S. Falahi

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Deciding the numerous parameters involved in designing a competent artificial neural network is a complicated task. The existence of several options for selecting an appropriate architecture for neural network adds to this complexity, especially when different applications of heterogeneous natures are concerned. Two completely different applications in engineering and medical science were selected in the present study including prediction of workpiece's surface roughness in ultrasonic-vibration assisted turning and papilloma viruses oncogenicity. Several neural network architectures with different parameters were developed for each application and the results were compared. It was illustrated in this paper that some applications such as the first one mentioned above are apt to be modeled by a single network with sufficient accuracy, whereas others such as the second application can be best modeled by different expert networks for different ranges of output. Development of knowledge about the essentials of neural networks for different applications is regarded as the cornerstone of multidisciplinary network design programs to be developed as a means of reducing inconsistencies and the burden of the user intervention.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Network, Malignancy Diagnosis, Papilloma Viruses Oncogenicity, Surface Roughness, UltrasonicVibration-Assisted Turning.

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Authors: Tudor Deaconescu, Andrea Deaconescu

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Deployment of pneumatic muscles in various industrial applications is still in its early days, considering the relative newness of these components. The field of robotics holds particular future potential for pneumatic muscles, especially in view of their specific behaviour known as compliance. The paper presents and discusses an innovative constructive solution for a gripper system mountable on an industrial robot, based on actuation by a linear pneumatic muscle and transmission of motion by gear and rack mechanism. The structural, operational and constructive models of the new gripper are presented, along with some of the experimental results obtained subsequently to the testing of a prototype. Further presented are two control variants of the gripper system, one by means of a 3/2-way fast-switching solenoid valve, the other by means of a proportional pressure regulator. Advantages and disadvantages are discussed for both variants.

Keywords: Gripper system, pneumatic muscle, structural modeling.

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Authors: Thitaporn Thoopputra, Tipaporn Pongmesa, Shuchuen Li

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Aims: To evaluate the application of non-invasive diabetes risk assessment tool in community pharmacy setting. Methods: Thai diabetes risk score was applied to assess individuals at risk of developing type 2 diabetes. Interactive computer-based risk screening (IT) and paper-based risk screening (PT) tools were applied. Participants aged over 25 years with no known diabetes were recruited in six participating pharmacies. Results: A total of 187 clients, mean aged (+SD) was 48.6 (+10.9) years. 35% were at high risk. The mean value of willingness-to-pay for the service fee in IT group was significantly higher than PT group (p=0.013). No significant difference observed for the satisfaction between groups. Conclusions: Non-invasive risk assessment tool, whether paper-based or computerized-based can be applied in community pharmacy to support the enhancing role of pharmacists in chronic disease management. Long term follow up is needed to determine the impact of its application in clinical, humanistic and economic outcomes.

Keywords: Community pharmacy, intervention, prevention, risk assessment, type 2 diabetes.

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Authors: Dana Madalina Pohrib, Elena Irina Ciobanu

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In compaction works, the most often used codes and standards are those for road embankments and refer to a maximum filling height of 3.00m. When filling a height greater than 3.00m, such codes are no longer valid and thus their application may lead to technical difficulties in the process of compaction and to the achievement of a sufficient degree of compaction. For this reason, in the case of controlled fillings with heights greater than 3.00m it is necessary to formulate and apply a number of special techniques, which can be determined by performing a full scale test. This paper presents the results of the studies and full scale tests conducted for the stabilization of a ravine with vertical banks and a depth of about 12.00m. The fillings will support a heavy traffic road connecting the two parts of a village in Vaslui County, Romania. After analyzing two comparative intervention solutions, the variant of a controlled filling bordered by a monolith concrete retaining wall was chosen. The results obtained by the authors highlighted the need to insert a geogrid reinforcement at every 2.00m for creating a 12.00m thick compacted fill.

Keywords: Compaction, dynamic probing, stability, soil stratification.

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Authors: Onder Yakut, Oguzhan Timus, Emine Dogru Bolat

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Health diseases have a vital significance affecting human being's life and life quality. Sudden death events can be prevented owing to early diagnosis and treatment methods. Electrical signals, taken from the human being's body using non-invasive methods and showing the heart activity is called Electrocardiogram (ECG). The ECG signal is used for following daily activity of the heart by clinicians. Heart Rate Variability (HRV) is a physiological parameter giving the variation between the heart beats. ECG data taken from MITBIH Arrhythmia Database is used in the model employed in this study. The detection of arrhythmic heart beats is aimed utilizing the features extracted from the HRV time domain parameters. The developed model provides a satisfactory performance with ~89% accuracy, 91.7 % sensitivity and 85% specificity rates for the detection of arrhythmic beats.

Keywords: Arrhythmic beat detection, ECG, HRV, kNN classifier.

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Authors: J. O. Yeboah, K Aboraa, K. Kodom

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The chemical and physical characteristics of rainwater harvested from a typical rooftop were progressively studied. The samples of rainwater collected were analyzed for pH, major ion concentrations, TDS, turbidity, conductivity. All the Physicochemical constituents fell within the WHO guideline limits at some points as rainfall progresses except the pH. All the components of rainwater quality measured during the study showed higher concentrations during the early stages of rainfall and reduce as time progresses. There was a downward trend in terms of pH as rain progressed, with 18% of the samples recording pH below the WHO limit of 6.5-8.0. It was observed that iron concentration was above the WHO threshold value of 0.3 mg/l on occasions of heavy rains. The results revealed that most of physicochemical characteristics of rainwater samples were generally below the WHO threshold, as such, the rainwater characteristics showed satisfactory conditions in terms of physicochemical constituents.

Keywords: Conductivity, pH, physicochemistry, rainwater quality, TDS.

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Authors: Dong Wook Lee

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This paper describes a method for analyzing penetration for composite material using an explicit nonlinear Finite Element Analysis (FEA). This method may be used in the early stage of design for the protection of military vehicles, aircraft engines and nuclear power plant structures made of composite materials. This paper deals with simple ballistic penetration tests for composite materials and the FEA modeling method and results. The FEA was performed to interpret the ballistic field test phenomenon regarding the damage propagation in the structure subjected to local foreign object impact.

Keywords: Computer Aided Engineering, CAE, Finite Element Analysis, FEA, impact analysis, penetration analysis, composite material.

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Authors: Souâd Demigha

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Early detection of breast cancer is considered as a major public health issue. Breast cancer screening is not generalized to the entire population due to a lack of resources, staff and appropriate tools. Systematic screening can result in a volume of data which can not be managed by present computer architecture, either in terms of storage capabilities or in terms of exploitation tools. We propose in this paper to design and develop a data warehouse system in radiology-senology (DWRS). The aim of such a system is on one hand, to support this important volume of information providing from multiple sources of data and images and for the other hand, to help assist breast cancer screening in diagnosis, education and research.

Keywords: Breast cancer screening, data warehouse, diagnosis, education, research.

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Authors: V. Geetha, K. S. Aprameya

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Early diagnosis of dental caries is essential for maintaining dental health. In this paper, method for diagnosis of dental caries is proposed using Laplacian filter, adaptive thresholding, texture analysis and Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier. Analysis of the proposed method is compared with Otsu thresholding, watershed segmentation and active contouring method. Adaptive thresholding has comparatively better performance with 96.9% accuracy and 96.1% precision. The results are validated using statistical method, two-way ANOVA, at significant level of 5%, that shows the interaction of proposed method on performance parameter measures are significant. Hence the proposed technique could be used for detection of dental caries in automated computer assisted diagnosis system.

Keywords: Computer assisted diagnosis, dental caries, dental radiography, image segmentation.

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Authors: Nurul Azma Zakaria, Masahiro Kimura, Noriko Matsumoto, Norihiko Yoshida

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The fast growth in complexity coupled with requests for shorter development periods for embedded systems are bringing demands towards a more effective, i.e. higher-abstract, design process for hardaware/software integrated design. In Software Engineering area, Model Driven Architecture (MDA) and Executable UML (xUML) has been accepted to bring further improvement in software design. This paper constructs MDA and xUML stepwise transformations from an abstract specification model to a more concrete implementation model using the refactoring technique for hardaware/software integrated design. This approach provides clear and structured models which enables quick exploration and synthesis, and early stage verification.

Keywords: Hardware/software integrated design, model driven architecture, executable UML, refactoring.

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Authors: J. Umamaheswari, G. Radhamani

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This paper describes about the process of recognition and classification of brain images such as normal and abnormal based on PSO-SVM. Image Classification is becoming more important for medical diagnosis process. In medical area especially for diagnosis the abnormality of the patient is classified, which plays a great role for the doctors to diagnosis the patient according to the severeness of the diseases. In case of DICOM images it is very tough for optimal recognition and early detection of diseases. Our work focuses on recognition and classification of DICOM image based on collective approach of digital image processing. For optimal recognition and classification Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) are used. The collective approach by using PSO-SVM gives high approximation capability and much faster convergence.

Keywords: Recognition, classification, Relaxed Median Filter, Adaptive thresholding, clustering and Neural Networks

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Authors: Lars Silver, Björn Berggren, Andreas Fili

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The financial crisis has decreased the opportunities of small businesses to acquire financing through conventional financial actors, such as commercial banks. This credit constraint is partly the reason for the emergence of new alternatives of financing, in addition to the spreading opportunities for communication and secure financial transfer through Internet. One of the most interesting venues for finance is termed “crowdfunding". As the term suggests crowdfunding is an appeal to prospective customers and investors to form a crowd that will finance projects that otherwise would find it hard to generate support through the most common financial actors. Crowdfunding is in this paper divided into different models; the threshold model, the microfinance model, the micro loan model and the equity model. All these models add to the financial possibilities of emerging entrepreneurs.

Keywords: Entrepreneurship, crowdfunding, equity finance, bank finance.

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Authors: Emma K. Sales, Nilda G. Butardo

Abstract:

The project was undertaken to determine the effects of modified tissue culture protocols e.g. age of culture and hormone levels (2,4-D) in generating somaclonal variation. Moreover, the utility of molecular markers (SSR and MSAP) in sorting off types/somaclones were investigated.

Results show that somaclonal variation is in effect due to prolonged subculture and high 2,4-D concentration. The resultant variation was observed to be due to high level of methylation events specifically cytosine methylation either at the internal or external cytosine and was identified by methylation sensitive amplification polymorphism (MSAP).Simple sequence repeats (SSR) on the other hand, was able to associate a marker to a trait of interest.

These therefore, show that molecular markers can be an important tool in sorting out variation/mutants at an early stage.

Keywords: Methylation, MSAP, somaclones, SSR, subculture, 2, 4-D.

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Authors: A. A. Penin

Abstract:

An empirical linearly-hyperbolic approximation of the I - V characteristic of a solar cell is presented. This approximation is based on hyperbolic dependence of a current of p-n junctions on voltage for large currents. Such empirical approximation is compared with the early proposed formal linearly-hyperbolic approximation of a solar cell. The expressions defining laws of change of parameters of formal approximation at change of a photo current of family of characteristics are received. It allows simplifying a finding of parameters of approximation on actual curves, to specify their values. Analytical calculation of load regime for linearly - hyperbolic model leads to quadratic equation. Also, this model allows to define soundly a deviation from the maximum power regime and to compare efficiency of regimes of solar cells with different parameters.

Keywords: a solar cell generator, I − V characteristic, p − n junction, approximation

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Authors: Joonsup Han, Jaehyeon Lee, Hyungmin Kim, Kihyung Lee

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PCCI engines can reduce NOx and PM emissions simultaneously without sacrificing thermal efficiency, but a low combustion temperature resulting from early fuel injection, and ignition occurring prior to TDC, can cause higher THC and CO emissions and fuel consumption. In conclusion, it was found that the PCCI combustion achieved by the 2-stage injection strategy with optimized calibration factors (e.g. EGR rate, injection pressure, swirl ratio, intake pressure, injection timing) can reduce NOx and PM emissions simultaneously. This research works are expected to provide valuable information conducive to a development of an innovative combustion engine that can fulfill upcoming stringent emission standards.

Keywords: Atkinson cycle, Diesel Engine, LIVC (Late intakevalve closing), PCCI (premixed charge compression ignition)

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Authors: Payam Mousavi, Andrew L. Stewart, Huiwen You, Aryeh F. G. Fayerman

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We present a decision-support tool to assist an operator in the detection and tracking of a suspect vehicle traveling to an unknown target destination. Multiple data sources, such as traffic cameras, traffic information, weather, etc., are integrated and processed in real-time to infer a suspect’s intended destination chosen from a list of pre-determined high-value targets. Previously, we presented our work in the detection and tracking of vehicles using traffic and airborne cameras. Here, we focus on the fusion and processing of that information to predict a suspect’s behavior. The network of cameras is represented by a directional graph, where the edges correspond to direct road connections between the nodes and the edge weights are proportional to the average time it takes to travel from one node to another. For our experiments, we construct our graph based on the greater Los Angeles subset of the Caltrans’s “Performance Measurement System” (PeMS) dataset. We propose a Bayesian approach where a posterior probability for each target is continuously updated based on detections of the suspect in the live video feeds. Additionally, we introduce the concept of ‘soft interventions’, inspired by the field of Causal Inference. Soft interventions are herein defined as interventions that do not immediately interfere with the suspect’s movements; rather, a soft intervention may induce the suspect into making a new decision, ultimately making their intent more transparent. For example, a soft intervention could be temporarily closing a road a few blocks from the suspect’s current location, which may require the suspect to change their current course. The objective of these interventions is to gain the maximum amount of information about the suspect’s intent in the shortest possible time. Our system currently operates in a human-on-the-loop mode where at each step, a set of recommendations are presented to the operator to aid in decision-making. In principle, the system could operate autonomously, only prompting the operator for critical decisions, allowing the system to significantly scale up to larger areas and multiple suspects. Once the intended target is identified with sufficient confidence, the vehicle is reported to the authorities to take further action. Other recommendations include a selection of road closures, i.e., soft interventions, or to continue monitoring. We evaluate the performance of the proposed system using simulated scenarios where the suspect, starting at random locations, takes a noisy shortest path to their intended target. In all scenarios, the suspect’s intended target is unknown to our system. The decision thresholds are selected to maximize the chances of determining the suspect’s intended target in the minimum amount of time and with the smallest number of interventions. We conclude by discussing the limitations of our current approach to motivate a machine learning approach, based on reinforcement learning in order to relax some of the current limiting assumptions.

Keywords: Autonomous surveillance, Bayesian reasoning, decision-support, interventions, patterns-of-life, predictive analytics, predictive insights.

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