Search results for: fluctuation in statistical characteristics

Authors: Natalia Rudeli, Elisabeth Viles, Adrian Santilli

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Delays in the construction industry are a global phenomenon. Many construction projects experience extensive delays exceeding the initially estimated completion time. The main purpose of this study is to identify construction projects typical behaviors in order to develop a prognosis and management tool. Being able to know a construction projects schedule tendency will enable evidence-based decision-making to allow resolutions to be made before delays occur. This study presents an innovative approach that uses Cluster Analysis Method to support predictions during Earned Value Analyses. A clustering analysis was used to predict future scheduling, Earned Value Management (EVM), and Earned Schedule (ES) principal Indexes behaviors in construction projects. The analysis was made using a database with 90 different construction projects. It was validated with additional data extracted from literature and with another 15 contrasting projects. For all projects, planned and executed schedules were collected and the EVM and ES principal indexes were calculated. A complete linkage classification method was used. In this way, the cluster analysis made considers that the distance (or similarity) between two clusters must be measured by its most disparate elements, i.e. that the distance is given by the maximum span among its components. Finally, through the use of EVM and ES Indexes and Tukey and Fisher Pairwise Comparisons, the statistical dissimilarity was verified and four clusters were obtained. It can be said that construction projects show an average delay of 35% of its planned completion time. Furthermore, four typical behaviors were found and for each of the obtained clusters, the interim milestones and the necessary rhythms of construction were identified. In general, detected typical behaviors are: (1) Projects that perform a 5% of work advance in the first two tenths and maintain a constant rhythm until completion (greater than 10% for each remaining tenth), being able to finish on the initially estimated time. (2) Projects that start with an adequate construction rate but suffer minor delays culminating with a total delay of almost 27% of the planned time. (3) Projects which start with a performance below the planned rate and end up with an average delay of 64%, and (4) projects that begin with a poor performance, suffer great delays and end up with an average delay of a 120% of the planned completion time. The obtained clusters compose a tool to identify the behavior of new construction projects by comparing their current work performance to the validated database, thus allowing the correction of initial estimations towards more accurate completion schedules.

Keywords: Cluster analysis, construction management, earned value, schedule.

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Authors: Abubakar Dikko

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The research investigates the causes of unemployment in Namibia, Nigeria and South Africa and the role of Capital Accumulation in reducing the unemployment profile of these economies as proposed by the post-Keynesian economics. This is conducted through extensive review of literature on the NAIRU models and focused on the post-Keynesian view of unemployment within the NAIRU framework. The NAIRU (non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment) model has become a dominant framework used in macroeconomic analysis of unemployment. The study views the post-Keynesian economics arguments that capital accumulation is a major determinant of unemployment. Unemployment remains the fundamental socio-economic challenge facing African economies. It has been a burden to citizens of those economies. Namibia, Nigeria, and South Africa are great African nations battling with high unemployment rates. The high unemployment rate in the country led the citizens to chase away foreigners in the country claiming that they have taken away their jobs. The study proposes there is a strong relationship between capital accumulation and unemployment in Namibia, Nigeria, and South Africa, and capital accumulation is responsible for high unemployment rates in these countries. For the economies to achieve steady state level of employment and satisfactory level of economic growth and development, there is need for capital accumulation to take place. The countries in the study have been selected after a critical research and investigations. They are selected based on the following criteria; African economies with high unemployment rates above 15% and have about 40% of their workforce unemployed. This level of unemployment is the critical level of unemployment in Africa as expressed by International Labour Organization (ILO). And finally, the African countries experience a slow growth in their Gross fixed capital formation. Adequate statistical measures have been employed using a time-series analysis in the study and the results revealed that capital accumulation is the main driver of unemployment performance in the chosen African countries. An increase in the accumulation of capital causes unemployment to reduce significantly. The results of the research work will be useful and relevant to federal governments and ministries, departments and agencies (MDAs) of Namibia, Nigeria and South Africa to resolve the issue of high and persistent unemployment rates in their economies which are great burden that slows growth and development of developing economies. Also, the result can be useful to World Bank, African Development Bank and International Labour Organization (ILO) in their further research and studies on how to tackle unemployment in developing and emerging economies.

Keywords: Capital accumulation, NAIRU, post-Keynesian economics, unemployment.

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Authors: Tarek M. Alguhane, Ayman H. Khalil, M. N. Fayed, Ayman M. Ismail

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This paper deals with different modeling aspects of masonry infill: no infill model, Layered shell infill model, and strut infill model. These models consider the complicated behavior of the in-filled plane frames under lateral load similar to an earthquake load. Three strut infill models are used: NBCC (2005) strut infill model, ASCE/SEI 41-06 strut infill model and proposed strut infill model based on modification to Canadian, NBCC (2005) strut infill model. Pushover and modal analyses of a masonry infill concrete frame with a single storey and an existing 5-storey RC building have been carried out by using different models for masonry infill. The corresponding hinge status, the value of base shear at target displacement as well as their dynamic characteristics have been determined and compared. A validation of the structural numerical models for the existing 5-storey RC building has been achieved by comparing the experimentally measured and the analytically estimated natural frequencies and their mode shapes. This study shows that ASCE/SEI 41-06 equation underestimates the values for the equivalent properties of the diagonal strut while Canadian, NBCC (2005) equation gives realistic values for the equivalent properties. The results indicate that both ASCE/SEI 41-06 and Canadian, NBCC (2005) equations for strut infill model give over estimated values for dynamic characteristic of the building. Proposed modification to Canadian, NBCC (2005) equation shows that the fundamental dynamic characteristic values of the building are nearly similar to the corresponding values using layered shell elements as well as measured field results.

Keywords: Masonry infill, framed structures, RC buildings, non-structural elements.

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Authors: S. A. A. Korori, H. Valipour K., S. Shabestani, A. shirvany, M. Matinizadeh

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Tehran, one of the heavily-populated capitals, is severely suffering from increasing air pollution. To show a documented trend of such pollutants during last years, plane tree species (Platanus orientalis) were suited to be studied as indicators, for the species have been planted throughout the city many years ago. Two areas (Saadatabad and Narmak districts) allotting different contents of crowed and highly-traffic routs but the same ecological characteristics were selected. Twelve sample individuals were cored twice perpendicularly in each area. Tree-rings of each core were measured by a binocular microscope and separated annually for the last 25 years. Two heavy metals including Cd and Pb accompanied by a mineral element (Ca) were analyzed using Hatch method. Treerings analysis of the two areas showed different groups in term of physiologically ability as the growths were plunged during the last 10 years in Saadatabad district and showed a slight decrease in the same period for another studying area. In direct contrast to decreasing growth trend in Saadatabad, all three mentioned elements increased sharply during last 25 years in the same area. When it came to Narmak district, the trend was completely different with Saadatabad. There were some fluctuations in absorbing trace elements like tree-rings widths were, yet calcium showed an upward trend all the last 25 years. The results of the study proved the possibility of using tree species of each region to monitor its air pollution trends of the past, hence to depict a pollution assessment of a populated city for last years and then to make appropriate decisions for the future as it is well-known what the trend is. On the other hand, risen values of calcium (as the stress-indicator element) accompanied by increased trace elements suggests non-sustainable state of the trees.

Keywords: Air pollution, Platanus orientalis, Tehran, Traceelements, Tree rings.

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Authors: G. S. Ayyappan, Srinivas Kota, Jaffer R. C. Sheriff, C. Prakash Chandra Joshua

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In the present scenario of energy crises, energy conservation in the electrical machines is very important in the industries. In order to conserve energy, one needs to monitor the performance of an induction motor on-site and in-situ. The instruments available for this purpose are very meager and very expensive. This paper deals with the design and development of induction motor performance analyser on-line, on-site, and in-situ. The system measures only few electrical input parameters like input voltage, line current, power factor, frequency, powers, and motor shaft speed. These measured data are coupled to name plate details and compute the operating efficiency of induction motor. This system employs the method of computing motor losses with the help of equivalent circuit parameters. The equivalent circuit parameters of the concerned motor are estimated using the developed algorithm at any load conditions and stored in the system memory. The developed instrument is a reliable, accurate, compact, rugged, and cost-effective one. This portable instrument could be used as a handy tool to study the performance of both slip ring and cage induction motors. During the analysis, the data can be stored in SD Memory card and one can perform various analyses like load vs. efficiency, torque vs. speed characteristics, etc. With the help of the developed instrument, one can operate the motor around its Best Operating Point (BOP). Continuous monitoring of the motor efficiency could lead to Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) of motors. LCA helps in taking decisions on motor replacement or retaining or refurbishment.

Keywords: Energy conservation, equivalent circuit parameters, induction motor efficiency, life cycle assessment, motor performance analysis.

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Authors: S. Zeynep Siretioglu Girgin, Gizem Turna Cebeci

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Turkey’s immigration policy is a controversial issue considering its legal, economic, social, and political and human rights dimensions. Formulation of an immigration policy goes hand in hand with political processes, where natives’ attitudes play a significant role. On the other hand, as was the case in Turkey, radical changes made in immigration policy or policies lacking transparency may cause severe reactions by the host society. The underlying discussion paper aims to analyze quantitatively the effects of the existing ‘open door’ immigration policy on the economic integration of Syrian refugees in Turkey, and on the perception of the native population of refugees. For the analysis, semi-structured in-depth interviews and focus group interviews have been conducted. After the introduction, a literature review is provided, followed by theoretical background on the explanation of natives’ attitudes towards immigrants. In the next section, a qualitative analysis of natives’ attitudes towards Syrian refugees is presented with the subtopics of (i) awareness, general opinions and expectations, (ii) open-door policy and management of the migration process, (iii) perception of positive and negative impacts of immigration, (iv) economic integration, and (v) cultural similarity. Results indicate that, natives concurrently have social, economic and security concerns regarding refugees, while difficulties regarding security and economic integration of refugees stand out. Socio-economic characteristics of the respondents, such as the educational level and employment status, are not sufficient to explain the overall attitudes towards refugees, while they can be used to explain the awareness of the respondents and the priority of the concerns felt.

Keywords: Economic integration, immigration policy, integration policies, migrants, natives’ attitudes, perception, Syrian refugees, Turkey.

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Authors: Orkide Donma, Mustafa M. Donma

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Basal metabolic rate (BMR) is widely used and an accepted measure of energy expenditure. Its principal determinant is body mass. However, this parameter is also correlated with a variety of other factors. The objective of this study is to measure BMR and compare it with the values obtained from predictive equations in adults classified according to their body mass index (BMI) values. 276 adults were included into the scope of this study. Their age, height and weight values were recorded. Five groups were designed based on their BMI values. First group (n = 85) was composed of individuals with BMI values varying between 18.5 and 24.9 kg/m². Those with BMI values varying from 25.0 to 29.9 kg/m² constituted Group 2 (n = 90). Individuals with 30.0-34.9 kg/m², 35.0-39.9 kg/m², > 40.0 kg/m² were included in Group 3 (n = 53), 4 (n = 28) and 5 (n = 20), respectively. The most commonly used equations to be compared with the measured BMR values were selected. For this purpose, the values were calculated by the use of four equations to predict BMR values, by name, introduced by Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)/World Health Organization (WHO)/United Nations University (UNU), Harris and Benedict, Owen and Mifflin. Descriptive statistics, ANOVA, post-Hoc Tukey and Pearson’s correlation tests were performed by a statistical program designed for Windows (SPSS, version 16.0). p values smaller than 0.05 were accepted as statistically significant. Mean ± SD of groups 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 for measured BMR in kcal were 1440.3 ± 210.0, 1618.8 ± 268.6, 1741.1 ± 345.2, 1853.1 ± 351.2 and 2028.0 ± 412.1, respectively. Upon evaluation of the comparison of means among groups, differences were highly significant between Group 1 and each of the remaining four groups. The values were increasing from Group 2 to Group 5. However, differences between Group 2 and Group 3, Group 3 and Group 4, Group 4 and Group 5 were not statistically significant. These insignificances were lost in predictive equations proposed by Harris and Benedict, FAO/WHO/UNU and Owen. For Mifflin, the insignificance was limited only to Group 4 and Group 5. Upon evaluation of the correlations of measured BMR and the estimated values computed from prediction equations, the lowest correlations between measured BMR and estimated BMR values were observed among the individuals within normal BMI range. The highest correlations were detected in individuals with BMI values varying between 30.0 and 34.9 kg/m². Correlations between measured BMR values and BMR values calculated by FAO/WHO/UNU as well as Owen were the same and the highest. In all groups, the highest correlations were observed between BMR values calculated from Mifflin and Harris and Benedict equations using age as an additional parameter. In conclusion, the unique resemblance of the FAO/WHO/UNU and Owen equations were pointed out. However, mean values obtained from FAO/WHO/UNU were much closer to the measured BMR values. Besides, the highest correlations were found between BMR calculated from FAO/WHO/UNU and measured BMR. These findings suggested that FAO/WHO/UNU was the most reliable equation, which may be used in conditions when the measured BMR values are not available.

Keywords: Adult, basal metabolic rate, FAO/WHO/UNU, obesity, prediction equations.

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Authors: Khaled M. Nabil

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This paper introduces the Nested Vortexes conception of the universe structure and interprets all the physical phenomena according this conception. The paper first reviews recent physics theories, either in microscopic scale or macroscopic scale, to collect evidence that the space is not empty. But, these theories describe the property of the space medium without determining its structure. Determining the structure of space medium is essential to understand the mechanism that leads to its properties. Without determining the space medium structure, many phenomena; such as electric and magnetic fields, gravity, or wave-particle duality remain uninterpreted. Thus, this paper introduces a conception about the structure of the universe. It assumes that the universe is a medium of ultra-tiny homogeneous particles which are still undiscovered. Like any medium with certain movements, possibly because of a great asymmetric explosion, vortexes have occurred. A vortex condenses the ultra-tiny particles in its center forming a bigger particle, the bigger particles, in turn, could be trapped in a bigger vortex and condense in its center forming a much bigger particle and so on. This conception describes galaxies, stars, protons as particles at different levels. Existing of the particle’s vortexes make the consistency of the speed of light postulate is not true. This conception shows that the vortex motion dynamic agrees with the motion of all the universe particles at any level. An experiment has been carried out to detect the orbiting effect of aggregated vortexes of aligned atoms of a permanent magnet. Based on the described particle’s structure, the gravity force of a particle and attraction between particles as well as charge, electric and magnetic fields and quantum mechanics characteristics are interpreted. All augmented physics phenomena are solved.

Keywords: Astrophysics, cosmology, particles’ structure model, particles’ forces, vortex dynamics.

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Authors: Nélio Veiga, Paula Ferreira, Tiago Correia, Maria J. Correia, Carlos Pereira, Odete Amaral, Ilídio J. Correia

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Introduction: The application of fissure sealants is considered to be an important primary prevention method used in dental medicine. However, the formation of microleakage gaps between tooth enamel and the fissure sealant applied is one of the most common reasons of dental caries development in teeth with fissure sealants. The association between various dental biomaterials may limit the major disadvantages and limitations of biomaterials functioning in a complementary manner. The present study consists in the incorporation of a cariostatic agent – silver diamine fluoride (SDF) – in a resin-based fissure sealant followed by the study of release kinetics by spectrophotometry analysis of the association between both biomaterials and assessment of the inhibitory effect on the growth of the reference bacterial strain Streptococcus mutans (S. mutans) in an in vitro study. Materials and Methods: An experimental in vitro study was designed consisting in the entrapment of SDF (Cariestop^® 12% and 30%) into a commercially available fissure sealant (Fissurit^®), by photopolymerization and photocrosslinking. The same sealant, without SDF was used as a negative control. The effect of the sealants on the growth of S. mutans was determined by the presence of bacterial inhibitory halos in the cultures at the end of the incubation period. In order to confirm the absence of bacteria in the surface of the materials, Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) characterization was performed. Also, to analyze the release profile of SDF along time, spectrophotometry technique was applied. Results: The obtained results indicate that the association of SDF to a resin-based fissure sealant may be able to increase the inhibition of S. mutans growth. However, no SDF release was noticed during the in vitro release studies and no statistical significant difference was verified when comparing the inhibitory halo sizes obtained for test and control group.  Conclusions: In this study, the entrapment of SDF in the resin-based fissure sealant did not potentiate the antibacterial effect of the fissure sealant or avoid the immediate development of dental caries. The development of more laboratorial research and, afterwards, long-term clinical data are necessary in order to verify if this association between these biomaterials is effective and can be considered for being used in oral health management. Also, other methodologies for associating cariostatic agents and sealant should be addressed.

Keywords: Biomaterial, fissure sealant, primary prevention, silver diamine fluoride, S. mutans.

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Authors: Wei-Hsin Sun, Jr-Ming Miao, Chang-Hsien Tai, Chien-Chun Hung

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The development of biomimetic micro-aerial-vehicles (MAVs) with flapping wings is the future trend in military/domestic field. The successful flight of MAVs is strongly related to the understanding of unsteady aerodynamic performance of low Reynolds number airfoils under dynamic flapping motion. This study explored the effects of flapping frequency, stroke amplitude, and the inclined angle of stroke plane on lift force and thrust force of a bio-inspiration corrugated airfoil with 33 full factorial design of experiment and ANOVA analysis. Unsteady vorticity flows over a corrugated thin airfoil executing flapping motion are computed with time-dependent two-dimensional laminar incompressible Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations with the conformal hybrid mesh. The tested freestream Reynolds number based on the chord length of airfoil as characteristic length is fixed of 103. The dynamic mesh technique is applied to model the flapping motion of a corrugated airfoil. Instant vorticity contours over a complete flapping cycle clearly reveals the flow mechanisms for lift force generation are dynamic stall, rotational circulation, and wake capture. The thrust force is produced as the leading edge vortex shedding from the trailing edge of airfoil to form a reverse von Karman vortex. Results also indicated that the inclined angle is the most significant factor on both the lift force and thrust force. There are strong interactions between tested factors which mean an optimization study on parameters should be conducted in further runs.

Keywords: biomimetic, MAVs, aerodynamic, ANOVA analysis.

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Authors: Luísa P. Cruz-Lopes, Hugo Costa e Silva, Idalina Domingos, José Ferreira, Luís Teixeira de Lemos, Bruno Esteves

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The liquefaction process of cork based tree barks has led to an increase of interest due to its potential innovation in the lumber and wood industries. In this particular study the bark of Quercus cerris (Turkish oak) is used due to its appreciable amount of cork tissue, although of inferior quality when compared to the cork provided by other Quercus trees. This study aims to optimize alkaline catalysis liquefaction conditions, regarding several parameters. To better comprehend the possible chemical characteristics of the bark of Quercus cerris, a complete chemical analysis was performed. The liquefaction process was performed in a double-jacket reactor heated with oil, using glycerol and a mixture of glycerol/ethylene glycol as solvents, potassium hydroxide as a catalyst, and varying the temperature, liquefaction time and granulometry. Due to low liquefaction efficiency resulting from the first experimental procedures a study was made regarding different washing techniques after the filtration process using methanol and methanol/water. The chemical analysis stated that the bark of Quercus cerris is mostly composed by suberin (ca. 30%) and lignin (ca. 24%) as well as insolvent hemicelluloses in hot water (ca. 23%). On the liquefaction stage, the results that led to higher yields were: using a mixture of methanol/ethylene glycol as reagents and a time and temperature of 120 minutes and 200 ºC, respectively. It is concluded that using a granulometry of <80 mesh leads to better results, even if this parameter barely influences the liquefaction efficiency. Regarding the filtration stage, washing the residue with methanol and then distilled water leads to a considerable increase on final liquefaction percentages, which proves that this procedure is effective at liquefying suberin content and lignocellulose fraction.

Keywords: Liquefaction, alkaline catalysis, optimization, Quercus cerris bark.

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Authors: Suguru Ochiai, Toru Yabuki, Yoshiki Yamaguchi, Yuetsu Kodama

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In this paper, we propose a Connect6 solver which adopts a hybrid approach based on a tree-search algorithm and image processing techniques. The solver must deal with the complicated computation and provide high performance in order to make real-time decisions. The proposed approach enables the solver to be implemented on a single Spartan-6 XC6SLX45 FPGA produced by XILINX without using any external devices. The compact implementation is achieved through image processing techniques to optimize a tree-search algorithm of the Connect6 game. The tree search is widely used in computer games and the optimal search brings the best move in every turn of a computer game. Thus, many tree-search algorithms such as Minimax algorithm and artificial intelligence approaches have been widely proposed in this field. However, there is one fundamental problem in this area; the computation time increases rapidly in response to the growth of the game tree. It means the larger the game tree is, the bigger the circuit size is because of their highly parallel computation characteristics. Here, this paper aims to reduce the size of a Connect6 game tree using image processing techniques and its position symmetric property. The proposed solver is composed of four computational modules: a two-dimensional checkmate strategy checker, a template matching module, a skilful-line predictor, and a next-move selector. These modules work well together in selecting next moves from some candidates and the total amount of their circuits is small. The details of the hardware design for an FPGA implementation are described and the performance of this design is also shown in this paper.

Keywords: Connect6, pattern matching, game-tree reduction, hardware direct computation

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Authors: Batin Latif Aylak, Bernd Noche

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Overhead conveyor systems satisfy by their simple
construction, wide application range and their full compatibility with
other manufacturing systems, which are designed according to
international standards. Ultra-light overhead conveyor systems are
rope-based conveying systems with individually driven vehicles. The
vehicles can move automatically on the rope and this can be realized
by energy and signals. Crossings are realized by switches. Overhead
conveyor systems are particularly used in the automotive industry but
also at post offices. Overhead conveyor systems always must be
integrated with a logistical process by finding the best way for a
cheaper material flow and in order to guarantee precise and fast
workflows. With their help, any transport can take place without
wasting ground and space, without excessive company capacity, lost
or damaged products, erroneous delivery, endless travels and without
wasting time. Ultra-light overhead conveyor systems provide optimal
material flow, which produces profit and saves time. This article
illustrates the advantages of the structure of the ultra-light overhead
conveyor systems in logistics applications and explains the steps of
their system design. After an illustration of the steps, currently
available systems on the market will be shown by means of their
technical characteristics. Due to their simple construction, demands
to an ultra-light overhead conveyor system will be illustrated.

Keywords: Logistics, material flow, overhead conveyor.

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Authors: Nagore Guerra Bilbao, Clemente Lobato Fraile

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This paper outlines the design and development of the MENDEPRO questionnaire, designed to analyze mentoring performance within a professional development process carried out with professors at the University of the Basque Country, Spain. The study took into account the international research carried out over the past two decades into teachers' professional development, and was also based on a thorough review of the most common instruments used to identify and analyze mentoring styles, many of which fail to provide sufficient psychometric guarantees. The present study aimed to gather empirical data in order to verify the metric quality of the questionnaire developed. To this end, the process followed to validate the theoretical construct was as follows: The formulation of the items and indicators in accordance with the study variables; the analysis of the validity and reliability of the initial questionnaire; the review of the second version of the questionnaire and the definitive measurement instrument. Content was validated through the formal agreement and consensus of 12 university professor training experts. A reduced sample of professors who had participated in a lifelong learning program was then selected for a trial evaluation of the instrument developed. After the trial, 18 items were removed from the initial questionnaire. The final version of the instrument, comprising 33 items, was then administered to a sample group of 99 participants. The results revealed a five-dimensional structure matching theoretical expectations. Also, the reliability data for both the instrument as a whole (.98) and its various dimensions (between .91 and .97) were very high. The questionnaire was thus found to have satisfactory psychometric properties and can therefore be considered apt for studying the performance of mentoring in both induction programs for young professors and lifelong learning programs for senior faculty members.

Keywords: Higher education, mentoring, professional development, university teachers.

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Authors: Dhananjoy Shaw, Seema Sharma (Kaushik)

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Anthropometry helps in associating the physical properties of an individual with their racial, cultural, and psychological attributes. Numerous research studies have included different skeletal diameters as a variable. However, most of the studies suggest their inclusion describing specific characteristics/traits of the body. However, there seems to be a scarcity of literature related to the effect of any kind of longitudinal physical training on human skeletal diameters. Hence, the present investigation was conducted to study the variability of covariance of selected skeletal diameters of females in a longitudinal physical training programme. The sample for the study was 78 college going students of the University of Delhi, classified equally in three groups, i.e. viz. (a) Progressive load of training or conditioning group coded as PLT; (b) Constant load of training or non-conditioning group coded as CLT; and (c) No-load or control or sedentary group coded as NL. Collectively, mean age of the sample was 19.54±1.79 years. The randomly selected samples were given maximum consideration to maintain their homogeneity. The variables included biacromial diameter, biiliocristal diameter, bitrochantaerion diameter, humeral bicondylar, femoral bicondylar, wrist diameter, ankle diameter, and foot breadth. Multi-group repeated measure design was adopted for the experimentation. Each group was measured four times after completion of each of the three meso-cycles of six-weeks duration. The measurements were taken following the standard landmarks and procedures. Mean, standard deviation, analysis of co-variance and its post-hoc analysis were computed to analyze the data statistically. The study concluded that both the progressive and constant load of physical training bring changes in the selected skeletal diameters of females. It also reflected the increase due to growth also along with training.

Keywords: Longitudinal, physical training, skeletal diameters, step progression load.

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Authors: H. Shamoradifar, B. Teimuri, P. Parvaresh, S. Mohammadi

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One of the main characteristics of Heavy Water Moderated Reactors is their high production of plutonium. This article demonstrates the possibility of reduction of plutonium and other actinides in Heavy Water Research Reactor. Among the many ways for reducing plutonium production in a heavy water reactor, in this research, changing the fuel from natural Uranium fuel to Thorium-Uranium mixed fuel was focused. The main fissile nucleus in Thorium-Uranium fuels is U-233 which would be produced after neutron absorption by Th-232, so the Thorium-Uranium fuels have some known advantages compared to the Uranium fuels. Due to this fact, four Thorium-Uranium fuels with different compositions ratios were chosen in our simulations; a) 10% UO₂-90% THO₂ (enriched= 20%); b) 15% UO₂-85% THO₂ (enriched= 10%); c) 30% UO₂-70% THO₂ (enriched= 5%); d) 35% UO₂-65% THO₂ (enriched= 3.7%). The natural Uranium Oxide (UO₂) is considered as the reference fuel, in other words all of the calculated data are compared with the related data from Uranium fuel. Neutronic parameters were calculated and used as the comparison parameters. All calculations were performed by Monte Carol (MCNPX2.6) steady state reaction rate calculation linked to a deterministic depletion calculation (CINDER90). The obtained computational data showed that Thorium-Uranium fuels with four different fissile compositions ratios can satisfy the safety and operating requirements for Heavy Water Research Reactor. Furthermore, Thorium-Uranium fuels have a very good proliferation resistance and consume less fissile material than uranium fuels at the same reactor operation time. Using mixed Thorium-Uranium fuels reduced the long-lived α emitter, high radiotoxic wastes and the radio toxicity level of spent fuel.

Keywords: Burn-up, heavy water reactor, minor actinides, Monte Carlo, proliferation resistance.

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Authors: Huan-Chieh Chiu, Hung-Shuo Wu, Chien-Hao Wang, Yu-Cheng Yang, Ching-Ya Tseng, Joe-Air Jiang

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Power failure resulting from tower collapse due to violent seismic events might bring enormous and inestimable losses. The Chi-Chi earthquake, for example, strongly struck Taiwan and caused huge damage to the power system on September 21, 1999. Nearly 10% of extra high voltage (EHV) transmission towers were damaged in the earthquake. Therefore, seismic hazards of EHV transmission towers should be monitored and evaluated. The ultimate goal of this study is to establish a damage level assessment model for EHV transmission towers. The data of earthquakes provided by Taiwan Central Weather Bureau serve as a reference and then lay the foundation for earthquake simulations and analyses afterward. Some parameters related to the damage level of each point of an EHV tower are simulated and analyzed by the data from monitoring stations once an earthquake occurs. Through the Fourier transform, the seismic wave is then analyzed and transformed into different wave frequencies, and the data would be shown through a response spectrum. With this method, the seismic frequency which damages EHV towers the most is clearly identified. An estimation model is built to determine the damage level caused by a future seismic event. Finally, instead of relying on visual observation done by inspectors, the proposed model can provide a power company with the damage information of a transmission tower. Using the model, manpower required by visual observation can be reduced, and the accuracy of the damage level estimation can be substantially improved. Such a model is greatly useful for health and construction monitoring because of the advantages of long-term evaluation of structural characteristics and long-term damage detection.

Keywords: Smart grid, EHV transmission tower, response spectrum, damage level monitoring.

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Authors: Svetlana Cojocaru, Mircea Petic, Inga Titchiev

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Humanity faces more and more often with different social disasters, which in turn can generate new accidents and catastrophes. To mitigate their consequences, it is important to obtain early possible signals about the events which are or can occur and to prepare the corresponding scenarios that could be applied. Our research is focused on solving two problems in this domain: identifying signals related that an accident occurred or may occur and mitigation of some consequences of disasters. To solve the first problem, methods of selecting and processing texts from global network Internet are developed. Information in Romanian is of special interest for us. In order to obtain the mentioned tools, we should follow several steps, divided into preparatory stage and processing stage. Throughout the first stage, we manually collected over 724 news articles and classified them into 10 categories of social disasters. It constitutes more than 150 thousand words. Using this information, a controlled vocabulary of more than 300 keywords was elaborated, that will help in the process of classification and identification of the texts related to the field of social disasters. To solve the second problem, the formalism of Petri net has been used. We deal with the problem of inhabitants’ evacuation in useful time. The analysis methods such as reachability or coverability tree and invariants technique to determine dynamic properties of the modeled systems will be used. To perform a case study of properties of extended evacuation system by adding time, the analysis modules of PIPE such as Generalized Stochastic Petri Nets (GSPN) Analysis, Simulation, State Space Analysis, and Invariant Analysis have been used. These modules helped us to obtain the average number of persons situated in the rooms and the other quantitative properties and characteristics related to its dynamics.

Keywords: Lexicon of disasters, modelling, Petri nets, text annotation, social disasters.

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Authors: M. Malek Yarand, H. Saebi Monfared

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This study aimed at designing and developing a mechanical force gauge for the square watermelon mold for the first time. It also tried to introduce the square watermelon characteristics and its production limitations. The mechanical force gauge performance and the product itself were also described. There are three main designable gauge models: a. hydraulic gauge, b. strain gauge, and c. mechanical gauge. The advantage of the hydraulic model is that it instantly displays the pressure and thus the force exerted by the melon. However, considering the inability to measure forces at all directions, complicated development, high cost, possible hydraulic fluid leak into the fruit chamber and the possible influence of increased ambient temperature on the fluid pressure, the development of this gauge was overruled. The second choice was to calculate pressure using the direct force a strain gauge. The main advantage of these strain gauges over spring types is their high precision in measurements; but with regard to the lack of conformity of strain gauge working range with water melon growth, calculations were faced with problems. Finally the mechanical pressure gauge has advantages, including the ability to measured forces and pressures on the mold surface during melon growth; the ability to display the peak forces; the ability to produce melon growth graph thanks to its continuous force measurements; the conformity of its manufacturing materials with the required physical conditions of melon growth; high air conditioning capability; the ability to permit sunlight reaches the melon rind (no yellowish skin and quality loss); fast and straightforward calibration; no damages to the product during assembling and disassembling; visual check capability of the product within the mold; applicable to all growth environments (field, greenhouses, etc.); simple process; low costs and so forth.

Keywords: Mechanical Force Gauge, Mold, Reshaped Fruit, Square Watermelon.

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Authors: Victoria L. Nkosi, Parvaneh Farhangpour

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Often a Grade 12 certificate is perceived as a passport to tertiary education and the minimum requirement to enter the world of work. In spite of its importance, many students do not make this milestone in South Africa. It is important to find out why so many students still fail in spite of transformation in the education system in the post-apartheid era. Given the complexity of education and its context, this study adopted a case study design to examine one historically underperforming high school in Bushbuckridge, Mpumalanga Province, South Africa in 2013. The aim was to gain a understanding of the inner and outer school contextual factors associated with the high failure rate among Grade 12 students.  Government documents and reports were consulted to identify factors in the district and the village surrounding the school and a student survey was conducted to identify school, home and student factors. The randomly-sampled half of the population of Grade 12 students (53) participated in the survey and quantitative data are analyzed using descriptive statistical methods. The findings showed that a host of factors is at play. The school is located in a village within a municipality which has been one of the poorest three municipalities in South Africa and the lowest Grade 12 pass rate in the Mpumalanga province.   Moreover, over half of the families of the students are single parents, 43% are unemployed and the majority has a low level of education. In addition, most families (83%) do not have basic study materials such as a dictionary, books, tables, and chairs. A significant number of students (70%) are over-aged (+19 years old); close to half of them (49%) are grade repeaters. The school itself lacks essential resources, namely computers, science laboratories, library, and enough furniture and textbooks. Moreover, teaching and learning are negatively affected by the teachers’ occasional absenteeism, inadequate lesson preparation, and poor communication skills. Overall, the continuous low performance of students in this school mirrors the vicious circle of multiple negative conditions present within and outside of the school. The complexity of factors associated with the underperformance of Grade 12 students in this school calls for a multi-dimensional intervention from government and stakeholders. One important intervention should be the placement of over-aged students and grade-repeaters in suitable educational institutions for the benefit of other students.

Keywords: Inner context, outer context, over-aged students, vicious circle.

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Authors: Manssour A. Abdulsalam Bin Miskeen, Ahmed Mohamed Alhodairi, Riza Atiq Abdullah Bin O. K. Rahmat

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In the planning point of view, it is essential to have mode choice, due to the massive amount of incurred in transportation systems. The intercity travellers in Libya have distinct features, as against travellers from other countries, which includes cultural and socioeconomic factors. Consequently, the goal of this study is to recognize the behavior of intercity travel using disaggregate models, for projecting the demand of nation-level intercity travel in Libya. Multinomial Logit Model for all the intercity trips has been formulated to examine the national-level intercity transportation in Libya. The Multinomial logit model was calibrated using nationwide revealed preferences (RP) and stated preferences (SP) survey. The model was developed for deference purpose of intercity trips (work, social and recreational). The variables of the model have been predicted based on maximum likelihood method. The data needed for model development were obtained from all major intercity corridors in Libya. The final sample size consisted of 1300 interviews. About two-thirds of these data were used for model calibration, and the remaining parts were used for model validation. This study, which is the first of its kind in Libya, investigates the intercity traveler’s mode-choice behavior. The intercity travel mode-choice model was successfully calibrated and validated. The outcomes indicate that, the overall model is effective and yields higher precision of estimation. The proposed model is beneficial, due to the fact that, it is receptive to a lot of variables, and can be employed to determine the impact of modifications in the numerous characteristics on the need for various travel modes. Estimations of the model might also be of valuable to planners, who can estimate possibilities for various modes and determine the impact of unique policy modifications on the need for intercity travel.

Keywords: Multinomial logit model, improved intercity transport, intercity mode-choice behavior, disaggregate analysis.

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Authors: Ke Zhao, Ballarat Colin Richardson, Jerry Courvisanos, John Crawford

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Climate change has profound consequences for the agriculture of south-eastern Australia and its climate-induced water shortage in the Murray-Darling Basin. Post Keynesian Economics (PKE) macro-dynamics, along with Kaleckian investment and growth theory, are used to develop an ecological-economic system dynamics model of this complex nonlinear river basin system. The Murray- Darling Basin Simulation Model (MDB-SM) uses the principles of PKE to incorporate the fundamental uncertainty of economic behaviors of farmers regarding the investments they make and the climate change they face, particularly as regards water ecosystem services. MDB-SM provides a framework for macroeconomic policies, especially for long-term fiscal policy and for policy directed at the sustainability of agricultural water, as measured by socio-economic well-being considerations, which include sustainable consumption and investment in the river basin. The model can also reproduce other ecological and economic aspects and, for certain parameters and initial values, exhibit endogenous business cycles and ecological sustainability with realistic characteristics. Most importantly, MDBSM provides a platform for the analysis of alternative economic policy scenarios. These results reveal the importance of understanding water ecosystem adaptation under climate change by integrating a PKE macroeconomic analytical framework with the system dynamics modelling approach. Once parameterised and supplied with historical initial values, MDB-SM should prove to be a practical tool to provide alternative long-term policy simulations of agricultural water and socio-economic well-being.

Keywords: Agricultural water, Macroeconomic dynamics, Modeling, Investment dynamics, Sustainability, Unemployment, Economics, Keynesian, Kaleckian.

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Authors: Neil Bar, Andrew Heweston

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Probability of failure (PF) often appears alongside factor of safety (FS) in design acceptance criteria for rock slope, underground excavation and open pit mine designs. However, the design acceptance criteria generally provide no guidance relating to how PF should be calculated for homogeneous and heterogeneous rock masses, or what qualifies a ‘reasonable’ PF assessment for a given slope design. Observational and kinematic methods were widely used in the 1990s until advances in computing permitted the routine use of numerical modelling. In the 2000s and early 2010s, PF in numerical models was generally calculated using the point estimate method. More recently, some limit equilibrium analysis software offer statistical parameter inputs along with Monte-Carlo or Latin-Hypercube sampling methods to automatically calculate PF. Factors including rock type and density, weathering and alteration, intact rock strength, rock mass quality and shear strength, the location and orientation of geologic structure, shear strength of geologic structure and groundwater pore pressure influence the stability of rock slopes. Significant engineering and geological judgment, interpretation and data interpolation is usually applied in determining these factors and amalgamating them into a geotechnical model which can then be analysed. Most factors are estimated ‘approximately’ or with allowances for some variability rather than ‘exactly’. When it comes to numerical modelling, some of these factors are then treated deterministically (i.e. as exact values), while others have probabilistic inputs based on the user’s discretion and understanding of the problem being analysed. This paper discusses the importance of understanding the key aspects of slope design for homogeneous and heterogeneous rock masses and how they can be translated into reasonable PF assessments where the data permits. A case study from a large open pit gold mine in a complex geological setting in Western Australia is presented to illustrate how PF can be calculated using different methods and obtain markedly different results. Ultimately sound engineering judgement and logic is often required to decipher the true meaning and significance (if any) of some PF results.

Keywords: Probability of failure, point estimate method, Monte-Carlo simulations, sensitivity analysis, slope stability.

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Authors: Dhruvit S. Berawala, Jann R. Ursin, Obrad Slijepcevic

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Shale gas is one of the most rapidly growing forms of natural gas. Unconventional natural gas deposits are difficult to characterize overall, but in general are often lower in resource concentration and dispersed over large areas. Moreover, gas is densely packed into the matrix through adsorption which accounts for large volume of gas reserves. Gas production from tight shale deposits are made possible by extensive and deep well fracturing which contacts large fractions of the formation. The conventional reservoir modelling and production forecasting methods, which rely on fluid-flow processes dominated by viscous forces, have proved to be very pessimistic and inaccurate. This paper presents a new approach to forecast shale gas production by detailed modeling of gas desorption, diffusion and non-linear flow mechanisms in combination with statistical representation of these processes. The representation of the model involves a cube as a porous media where free gas is present and a sphere (SiC: Sphere in Cube model) inside it where gas is adsorbed on to the kerogen or organic matter. Further, the sphere is considered consisting of many layers of adsorbed gas in an onion-like structure. With pressure decline, the gas desorbs first from the outer most layer of sphere causing decrease in its molecular concentration. The new available surface area and change in concentration triggers the diffusion of gas from kerogen. The process continues until all the gas present internally diffuses out of the kerogen, gets adsorbs onto available surface area and then desorbs into the nanopores and micro-fractures in the cube. Each SiC idealizes a gas pathway and is characterized by sphere diameter and length of the cube. The diameter allows to model gas storage, diffusion and desorption; the cube length takes into account the pathway for flow in nanopores and micro-fractures. Many of these representative but general cells of the reservoir are put together and linked to a well or hydraulic fracture. The paper quantitatively describes these processes as well as clarifies the geological conditions under which a successful shale gas production could be expected. A numerical model has been derived which is then compiled on FORTRAN to develop a simulator for the production of shale gas by considering the spheres as a source term in each of the grid blocks. By applying SiC to field data, we demonstrate that the model provides an effective way to quickly access gas production rates from shale formations. We also examine the effect of model input properties on gas production.

Keywords: Sphere in Cube Grid Approach to Modelling of Shale Gas Production Using Non-Linear Flow Mechanisms

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Authors: Mohammadreza Salek Faramarzi, Touraj Taghikhany

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In this paper, seismic fragility assessment of a recently developed hybrid structural system, known as the strongback system (SBS) is investigated. In this system, to mitigate the occurrence of the soft-story mechanism and improve the distribution of story drifts over the height of the structure, an elastic vertical truss is formed. The strengthened members of the braced span are designed to remain substantially elastic during levels of excitation where soft-story mechanisms are likely to occur and impose a nearly uniform story drift distribution. Due to the distinctive characteristics of near-field ground motions, it seems to be necessary to study the effect of these records on seismic performance of the SBS. To this end, a set of 56 near-field ground motion records suggested by FEMA P695 methodology is used. For fragility assessment, nonlinear dynamic analyses are carried out in OpenSEES based on the recommended procedure in HAZUS technical manual. Four damage states including slight, moderate, extensive, and complete damage (collapse) are considered. To evaluate each damage state, inter-story drift ratio and floor acceleration are implemented as engineering demand parameters. Further, to extend the evaluation of the collapse state of the system, a different collapse criterion suggested in FEMA P695 is applied. It is concluded that SBS can significantly increase the collapse capacity and consequently decrease the collapse risk of the structure during its life time. Comparing the observing mean annual frequency (MAF) of exceedance of each damage state against the allowable values presented in performance-based design methods, it is found that using the elastic vertical truss, improves the structural response effectively.

Keywords: Strongback System, Near-fault, Seismic fragility, Uncertainty, IDA, Probabilistic performance assessment.

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Authors: I. Oikonomou, I. Lappa, D. Daferera, C. Kanakis, L. Kiokakis, K. Skordilis, A. Avramouli, E. Kalli, C. Pappas, P. A. Tarantilis, E. Skotti

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Grape seeds are waste products of wineries and often referred to as an important agricultural and industrial waste product with the potential to be used in pharmaceutical, food, and cosmetic applications. In this study, grape seed oil from traditional Ionian varieties was examined for the determination of the quality and the characteristics of each variety. Initially, the fatty acid methyl ester (FAME) profiles were analyzed using Gas Chromatography-Mass Spectrometry, after transesterification. Furthermore, other quality parameters of the grape seed oils were determined by Spectroscopy techniques, UV-Vis and Raman included. Moreover, the antioxidant capacity of the oil was measured by 2,2'-azino-bis-3-ethylbenzothiazoline-6-sulfonic acid (ABTS) and 2,2-Diphenyl-1-picrylhydrazyl (DPPH) assays and their antioxidant capacity expressed in Trolox equivalents. K and ΔΚ indices were measured in 232, 268, 270 nm, as an oil quality index. The results indicate that the air-dried grape seed total oil content ranged from 5.26 to 8.77% w/w, which is in accordance with the other grape seed varieties tested in similar studies. The composition of grape seed oil is predominated with linoleic and oleic fatty acids, with the linoleic fatty acid ranging from 53.68 to 69.95% and both the linoleic and oleic fatty acids totaling 78-82% of FAMEs, which is analogous to the fatty acid composition of safflower oil. The antioxidant assays ABTS and DPPH scored high, exhibiting that the oils have potential in the cosmetic and culinary businesses. Above that, our results demonstrate that Ionian grape seed oils have prospects that can go further than cosmetic or culinary use, into the pharmaceuticals industry. Finally, the reclamation of grape seeds from wineries waste stream is in accordance with the bio-economy strategic framework and contributes to environmental protection.

Keywords: Antioxidant capacity, fatty acid methyl esters, grape seed oil, GC-MS.

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Authors: Hadi Firouzi, Majid Nili Ahmadabadi, Babak N. Araabi

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Conceptualization strengthens intelligent systems in generalization skill, effective knowledge representation, real-time inference, and managing uncertain and indefinite situations in addition to facilitating knowledge communication for learning agents situated in real world. Concept learning introduces a way of abstraction by which the continuous state is formed as entities called concepts which are connected to the action space and thus, they illustrate somehow the complex action space. Of computational concept learning approaches, action-based conceptualization is favored because of its simplicity and mirror neuron foundations in neuroscience. In this paper, a new biologically inspired concept learning approach based on the probabilistic framework is proposed. This approach exploits and extends the mirror neuron-s role in conceptualization for a reinforcement learning agent in nondeterministic environments. In the proposed method, instead of building a huge numerical knowledge, the concepts are learnt gradually from rewards through interaction with the environment. Moreover the probabilistic formation of the concepts is employed to deal with uncertain and dynamic nature of real problems in addition to the ability of generalization. These characteristics as a whole distinguish the proposed learning algorithm from both a pure classification algorithm and typical reinforcement learning. Simulation results show advantages of the proposed framework in terms of convergence speed as well as generalization and asymptotic behavior because of utilizing both success and failures attempts through received rewards. Experimental results, on the other hand, show the applicability and effectiveness of the proposed method in continuous and noisy environments for a real robotic task such as maze as well as the benefits of implementing an incremental learning scenario in artificial agents.

Keywords: Concept learning, probabilistic decision making, reinforcement learning.

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Authors: Abdulraaof H. Alqaili, Hamad A. Alsoliman

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Through progress in pavement design developments, a pavement design method was developed, which is titled the Mechanistic Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG). Nowadays, the evolution in roads network and highways is observed in Saudi Arabia as a result of increasing in traffic volume. Therefore, the MEPDG currently is implemented for flexible pavement design by the Saudi Ministry of Transportation. Implementation of MEPDG for local pavement design requires the calibration of distress models under the local conditions (traffic, climate, and materials). This paper aims to prepare data for calibration of MEPDG in Central Saudi Arabia. Thus, the first goal is data collection for the design of flexible pavement from the local conditions of the Riyadh region. Since, the modifying of collected data to input data is needed; the main goal of this paper is the analysis of collected data. The data analysis in this paper includes processing each: Trucks Classification, Traffic Growth Factor, Annual Average Daily Truck Traffic (AADTT), Monthly Adjustment Factors (MAFi), Vehicle Class Distribution (VCD), Truck Hourly Distribution Factors, Axle Load Distribution Factors (ALDF), Number of axle types (single, tandem, and tridem) per truck class, cloud cover percent, and road sections selected for the local calibration. Detailed descriptions of input parameters are explained in this paper, which leads to providing of an approach for successful implementation of MEPDG. Local calibration of MEPDG to the conditions of Riyadh region can be performed based on the findings in this paper.

Keywords: Mechanistic-empirical pavement design guide, traffic characteristics, materials properties, climate, Riyadh.

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Authors: Tim Dunne, Weicheng Li, Chris Cheng, Qi Peng

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Deeper petroleum reservoirs are more challenging to exploit due to the high hardness and abrasive characteristics of the formations. A cutting structure that consists of particulate diamond impregnated in a supporting matrix is found to be effective. Diamond impregnated bits are favored in these applications due to the higher thermal stability of the matrix material. The diamond particles scour or abrade away concentric grooves while the rock formation adjacent to the grooves is fractured and removed. The matrix material supporting the diamond will wear away, leaving the superficial dull diamonds to fall out. The matrix material wear will expose other embedded intact sharp diamonds to continue the operation. Minimizing the erosion effect on the matrix is an important design consideration, as the life of the bit can be extended by preventing early diamond pull-out. A careful balancing of the key parameters, such as diamond concentration, tungsten carbide and metal binder must be considered during development. Described herein is the design of experiment for developing and lab testing 8 unique samples. ASTM B611 wear testing was performed to benchmark the material performance against baseline products, with further scanning electron microscopy and microhardness evaluations. The recipe S5 with diamond 25/35 mesh size, narrow size distribution, high concentration blended with fine tungsten carbide and Co-Cu-Fe-P metal binder has the best performance, which shows 19% improvement in the ASTM B611 wear test compared with the reference material. In the field trial, the rate of penetration (ROP) is measured as 15 m/h, compared to 9.5, 7.8, and 6.8 m/h of other commercial impregnated bits in the same formation. A second round of optimizing recipe S5 for a higher wear resistance is further reported.

Keywords: Diamond containing material, grit hot press insert, impregnated diamond, insert, rate of penetration, ultrahard formation.

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Authors: Mustafa M. Donma, Orkide Donma

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Spexin, expressed in the central nervous system, has attracted much interest in feeding behavior, obesity, diabetes, energy metabolism and cardiovascular functions. Fetuin A is known as the negative acute phase reactant synthesized in the liver. Eosinophils are early indicators of cardiometabolic complications. Patients with elevated platelet count, associated with hypercoagulable state in the body, are also more liable to cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). In this study, the aim is to examine the profiles of spexin and fetuin A concomitant with the course of variations detected in eosinophil as well as platelet counts in morbid obese children. 34 children with normal-body mass index (N-BMI) and 51 morbid obese (MO) children participated in the study. Written-informed consent forms were obtained prior to the study. Institutional ethics committee approved the study protocol. Age- and sex-adjusted BMI percentile tables prepared by World Health Organization were used to classify healthy and obese children. Mean age ± SEM of the children were 9.3 ± 0.6 years and 10.7 ± 0.5 years in N-BMI and MO groups, respectively. Anthropometric measurements of the children were taken. BMI values were calculated from weight and height values. Blood samples were obtained after an overnight fasting. Routine hematologic and biochemical tests were performed. Within this context, fasting blood glucose (FBG), insulin (INS), triglycerides (TRG), high density lipoprotein-cholesterol (HDL-C) concentrations were measured. Homeostatic model assessment for insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) values were calculated. Spexin and fetuin A levels were determined by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Data were evaluated from the statistical point of view. Statistically significant differences were found between groups in terms of BMI, fat mass index, INS, HOMA-IR and HDL-C. In MO group, all parameters increased as HDL-C decreased. Elevated concentrations in MO group were detected in eosinophils (p < 0.05) and platelets (p > 0.05). Fetuin A levels decreased in MO group (p > 0.05). However, decrease was statistically significant in spexin levels for this group (p < 0.05). In conclusion, these results have suggested that increases in eosinophils and platelets exhibit behavior as cardiovascular risk factors. Decreased fetuin A behaved as a risk factor suitable to increased risk for cardiovascular problems associated with the severity of obesity. Along with increased eosinophils, increased platelets and decreased fetuin A, decreased spexin was the parameter, which reflects best its possible participation in the early development of CVD risk in MO children.

Keywords: Cardiovascular diseases, eosinophils, fetuin A, pediatric morbid obesity, platelets, spexin.

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