Search results for: trend analysis and Upper Euphrates Basin
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 9341

Search results for: trend analysis and Upper Euphrates Basin

9041 Performance of a Connected Random Covered Energy Efficient Wireless Sensor Network

Authors: M. Mahdavi, M. Ismail, K. Jumari, Z. M. Hanapi

Abstract:

For the sensor network to operate successfully, the active nodes should maintain both sensing coverage and network connectivity. Furthermore, scheduling sleep intervals plays critical role for energy efficiency of wireless sensor networks. Traditional methods for sensor scheduling use either sensing coverage or network connectivity, but rarely both. In this paper, we use random scheduling for sensing coverage and then turn on extra sensor nodes, if necessary, for network connectivity. Simulation results have demonstrated that the number of extra nodes that is on with upper bound of around 9%, is small compared to the total number of deployed sensor nodes. Thus energy consumption for switching on extra sensor node is small.

Keywords: Wireless sensor networks, energy efficient network, performance analysis, network coverage.

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9040 Biodiversity and Climate Change: Consequences for Norway Spruce Mountain Forests in Slovakia

Authors: Jozef Mindas, Jaroslav Skvarenina, Jana Skvareninova

Abstract:

Study of the effects of climate change on Norway Spruce (Picea abies) forests has mainly focused on the diversity of tree species diversity of tree species as a result of the ability of species to tolerate temperature and moisture changes as well as some effects of disturbance regime changes. The tree species’ diversity changes in spruce forests due to climate change have been analyzed via gap model. Forest gap model is a dynamic model for calculation basic characteristics of individual forest trees. Input ecological data for model calculations have been taken from the permanent research plots located in primeval forests in mountainous regions in Slovakia. The results of regional scenarios of the climatic change for the territory of Slovakia have been used, from which the values are according to the CGCM3.1 (global) model, KNMI and MPI (regional) models. Model results for conditions of the climate change scenarios suggest a shift of the upper forest limit to the region of the present subalpine zone, in supramontane zone. N. spruce representation will decrease at the expense of beech and precious broadleaved species (Acer sp., Sorbus sp., Fraxinus sp.). The most significant tree species diversity changes have been identified for the upper tree line and current belt of dwarf pine (Pinus mugo) occurrence. The results have been also discussed in relation to most important disturbances (wind storms, snow and ice storms) and phenological changes which consequences are little known. Special discussion is focused on biomass production changes in relation to carbon storage diversity in different carbon pools.

Keywords: Biodiversity, climate change, Norway spruce forests, gap model.

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9039 Megalopolisation: An Effect of Large Scale Urbanisation in Post-Reform China

Authors: Siqing Chen

Abstract:

Megalopolis is a group of densely populated metropolitan areas that combine to form an urban complex. Since China introduced the economic reforms in late 1970s, the Chinese urban system has experienced unprecedented growth. The process of urbanisation prevailed in the 1980s, and the process of predominantly large city growth appeared to continue through 1990s and 2000s. In this study, the magnitude and pattern of urbanisation in China during 1990s were examined using remotely sensed imagery acquired by TM/ETM+ sensor onboard the Landsat satellites. The development of megalopolis areas in China was also studied based on the GIS analysis of the increases of urban and built-up area from 1990 to 2000. The analysis suggests that in the traditional agricultural zones in China, e.g., Huang-Huai-Hai Plains, Changjiang River Delta, Pearl River Delta and Sichuan Basin, the urban and built-up areas increased by 1.76 million hectares, of which 0.82 million hectares are expansion of urban areas, an increase of 24.78% compared with 1990 at the national scale. The Yellow River Delta, Changjiang River Delta and Pearl River Delta also saw an increase of urban and built-up area by 63.9%, 66.2% and 83.0% respectively. As a result, three major megalopolises were developed in China: the Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong- Macau (Pearl River Delta: PRD) megalopolis area, the Shanghai- Nanjing-Hangzhou (Changjiang River Delta: CRD) megalopolis area and the Beijing-Tianjing-Tangshan-Qinhuangdao (Yellow River Delta-Bohai Sea Ring: YRD) megalopolis area. The relationship between the processed of megalopolisation and the inter-provincial population flow was also explored in the context of social-economic and transport infrastructure development in Post-reform China.

Keywords: Megalopolisation, Land use change, Spatial analysis, Post-reform China

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9038 Artificial Accelerated Ageing Test of Silicone Rubber Housing Material for Lightning Arrester

Authors: W. Payakcho, J. Grasaesom, S. Thong-om, B. Marungsri

Abstract:

This paper presents the experimental results of silicone rubber housing material for 24kV lightning arrester under artificial accelerated ageing test based on IEC 61109 specifications. Specimens having inclined and alternated shed made of HTV silicone rubber with ATH content and having leakage distance 625 mm were tested continuously 1000 hrs in artificial salt fog chamber. After 1000 hrs of salt fog ageing test, obviously surface erosion was observed on trunk between the upper large shed and the lower small shed near the energized end. Decreasing in hydrophobicity and increasing in hardness were measured on tested specimen comparing with new specimen. Chemical analysis by ATR-FTIR confirmed the observation results.

Keywords: Accelerated ageing test, Silicone rubber housing material, salt fog test, Lightning Arrester, Ageing

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9037 Bounds on the Second Stage Spectral Radius of Graphs

Authors: S.K.Ayyaswamy, S.Balachandran, K.Kannan

Abstract:

Let G be a graph of order n. The second stage adjacency matrix of G is the symmetric n × n matrix for which the ijth entry is 1 if the vertices vi and vj are of distance two; otherwise 0. The sum of the absolute values of this second stage adjacency matrix is called the second stage energy of G. In this paper we investigate a few properties and determine some upper bounds for the largest eigenvalue.

Keywords: Second stage spectral radius, Irreducible matrix, Derived graph

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9036 Simulation and Statistical Analysis of Motion Behavior of a Single Rockfall

Authors: Iau-Teh Wang, Chin-Yu Lee

Abstract:

The impact force of a rockfall is mainly determined by its moving behavior and velocity, which are contingent on the rock shape, slope gradient, height, and surface roughness of the moving path. It is essential to precisely calculate the moving path of the rockfall in order to effectively minimize and prevent damages caused by the rockfall. By applying the Colorado Rockfall Simulation Program (CRSP) program as the analysis tool, this research studies the influence of three shapes of rock (spherical, cylindrical and discoidal) and surface roughness on the moving path of a single rockfall. As revealed in the analysis, in addition to the slope gradient, the geometry of the falling rock and joint roughness coefficient ( JRC ) of the slope are the main factors affecting the moving behavior of a rockfall. On a single flat slope, both the rock-s bounce height and moving velocity increase as the surface gradient increases, with a critical gradient value of 1:m = 1 . Bouncing behavior and faster moving velocity occur more easily when the rock geometry is more oval. A flat piece tends to cause sliding behavior and is easily influenced by the change of surface undulation. When JRC <1.4 the moving velocity decreases and the bounce height increases as JRC increases. If the gradient is fixed, when JRC is greater, the bounce height will be higher, while the moving velocity will experience a downward trend. Therefore, the best protecting point and facilities can be chosen if the moving paths of rockfalls are precisely estimated.

Keywords: rock shape, surface roughness, moving path.

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9035 Practical Design Procedures of 3D Reinforced Concrete Shear Wall-Frame Structure Based on Structural Optimization Method

Authors: H. Nikzad, S. Yoshitomi

Abstract:

This study investigates and develops the structural optimization method. The effect of size constraints on practical solution of reinforced concrete (RC) building structure with shear wall is proposed. Cross-sections of beam and column, and thickness of shear wall are considered as design variables. The objective function to be minimized is total cost of the structure by using a simple and efficient automated MATLAB platform structural optimization methodology. With modification of mathematical formulations, the result is compared with optimal solution without size constraints. The most suitable combination of section sizes is selected as for the final design application based on linear static analysis. The findings of this study show that defining higher value of upper bound of sectional sizes significantly affects optimal solution, and defining of size constraints play a vital role in finding of global and practical solution during optimization procedures. The result and effectiveness of proposed method confirm the ability and efficiency of optimal solutions for 3D RC shear wall-frame structure.

Keywords: Structural optimization, linear static analysis, ETABS, MATLAB, RC shear wall-frame structures.

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9034 A Hyperbolic Characterization of Projective Klingenberg Planes

Authors: Basri Çelik

Abstract:

In this paper, the notion of Hyperbolic Klingenberg plane is introduced via a set of axioms like as Affine Klingenberg planes and Projective Klingenberg planes. Models of such planes are constructed by deleting a certain number m of equivalence classes of lines from a Projective Klingenberg plane. In the finite case, an upper bound for m is established and some combinatoric properties are investigated.

Keywords: Hyperbolic planes, Klingenberg planes, Projective planes.

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9033 Interannual Variations in Snowfall and Continuous Snow Cover Duration in Pelso, Central Finland, Linked to Teleconnection Patterns, 1944-2010

Authors: M. Irannezhad, E. H. N. Gashti, S. Mohammadighavam, M. Zarrini, B. Kløve

Abstract:

Climate warming would increase rainfall by shifting precipitation falling form from snow to rain, and would accelerate snow cover disappearing by increasing snowpack. Using temperature and precipitation data in the temperature-index snowmelt model, we evaluated variability of snowfall and continuous snow cover duration (CSCD) during 1944-2010 over Pelso, central Finland. Mann- Kendall non-parametric test determined that annual precipitation increased by 2.69 (mm/year, p<0.05) during the study period, but no clear trend in annual temperature. Both annual rainfall and snowfall increased by 1.67 and 0.78 (mm/year, p<0.05), respectively. CSCD was generally about 205 days from 14 October to 6 May. No clear trend was found in CSCD over Pelso. Spearman’s rank correlation showed most significant relationships of annual snowfall with the East Atlantic (EA) pattern, and CSCD with the East Atlantic/West Russia (EA/WR) pattern. Increased precipitation with no warming temperature caused the rainfall and snowfall to increase, while no effects on CSCD.

Keywords: Variations, snowfall, snow cover duration, temperature-index snowmelt model, teleconnection patterns.

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9032 Finite Element Study on Corono-Radicular Restored Premolars

Authors: Sandu L., Topală F., Porojan S.

Abstract:

Restoration of endodontically treated teeth is a common problem in dentistry, related to the fractures occurring in such teeth and to concentration of forces little information regarding variation of basic preparation guidelines in stress distribution has been available. To date, there is still no agreement in the literature about which material or technique can optimally restore endodontically treated teeth. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the influence of the core height and restoration materials on corono-radicular restored upper first premolar. The first step of the study was to achieve 3D models in order to analyze teeth, dowel and core restorations and overlying full ceramic crowns. The FEM model was obtained by importing the solid model into ANSYS finite element analysis software. An occlusal load of 100 N was conducted, and stresses occurring in the restorations, and teeth structures were calculated. Numerical simulations provide a biomechanical explanation for stress distribution in prosthetic restored teeth. Within the limitations of the present study, it was found that the core height has no important influence on the stress generated in coronoradicular restored premolars. It can be drawn that the cervical regions of the teeth and restorations were subjected to the highest stress concentrations.

Keywords: 3D models, finite element analysis, dowel and core restoration, full ceramic crown, premolars, structural simulations.

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9031 Physico-Mechanical Properties of Jute-Coir Fiber Reinforced Hybrid Polypropylene Composites

Authors: Salma Siddika, Fayeka Mansura, Mahbub Hasan

Abstract:

The term hybrid composite refers to the composite containing more than one type of fiber material as reinforcing fillers. It has become attractive structural material due to the ability of providing better combination of properties with respect to single fiber containing composite. The eco-friendly nature as well as processing advantage, light weight and low cost have enhanced the attraction and interest of natural fiber reinforced composite. The objective of present research is to study the mechanical properties of jute-coir fiber reinforced hybrid polypropylene (PP) composite according to filler loading variation. In the present work composites were manufactured by using hot press machine at four levels of fiber loading (5, 10, 15 and 20 wt %). Jute and coir fibers were utilized at a ratio of (1:1) during composite manufacturing. Tensile, flexural, impact and hardness tests were conducted for mechanical characterization. Tensile test of composite showed a decreasing trend of tensile strength and increasing trend of the Young-s modulus with increasing fiber content. During flexural, impact and hardness tests, the flexural strength, flexural modulus, impact strength and hardness were found to be increased with increasing fiber loading. Based on the fiber loading used in this study, 20% fiber reinforced composite resulted the best set of mechanical properties.

Keywords: Mechanical Properties; Coir, Jute, Polypropylene, Hybrid Composite.

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9030 Nonlinear Model Predictive Control of Water Quality in Drinking Water Distribution Systems with DBPs Objectives

Authors: Mingyu Xie, Mietek Brdys

Abstract:

The paper develops a Non-Linear Model Predictive Control (NMPC) of water quality in Drinking Water Distribution Systems (DWDS) based on the advanced non-linear quality dynamics model including disinfections by-products (DBPs). A special attention is paid to the analysis of an impact of the flow trajectories prescribed by an upper control level of the recently developed two-time scale architecture of an integrated quality and quantity control in DWDS. The new quality controller is to operate within this architecture in the fast time scale as the lower level quality controller. The controller performance is validated by a comprehensive simulation study based on an example case study DWDS.

Keywords: Model predictive control, hierarchical control structure, genetic algorithm, water quality with DBPs objectives.

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9029 Environmental Efficiency of Electric Power Industry of the United States: A Data Envelopment Analysis Approach

Authors: Alexander Y. Vaninsky

Abstract:

Importance of environmental efficiency of electric power industry stems from high demand for energy combined with global warming concerns. It is especially essential for the world largest economies like that of the United States. The paper introduces a Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) model of environmental efficiency using indicators of fossil fuels utilization, emissions rate, and electric power losses. Using DEA is advantageous in this situation over other approaches due to its nonparametric nature. The paper analyzes data for the period of 1990 - 2006 by comparing actual yearly levels in each dimension with the best values of partial indicators for the period. As positive factors of efficiency, tendency to the decline in emissions rates starting 2000, and in electric power losses starting 2004 may be mentioned together with increasing trend of fuel utilization starting 1999. As a result, dynamics of environmental efficiency is positive starting 2002. The main concern is the decline in fossil fuels utilization in 2006. This negative change should be reversed to comply with ecological and economic requirements.

Keywords: Environmental efficiency, electric power industry, DEA, United States.

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9028 Real Time Classification of Political Tendency of Twitter Spanish Users based on Sentiment Analysis

Authors: Marc Solé, Francesc Giné, Magda Valls, Nina Bijedic

Abstract:

What people say on social media has turned into a rich source of information to understand social behavior. Specifically, the growing use of Twitter social media for political communication has arisen high opportunities to know the opinion of large numbers of politically active individuals in real time and predict the global political tendencies of a specific country. It has led to an increasing body of research on this topic. The majority of these studies have been focused on polarized political contexts characterized by only two alternatives. Unlike them, this paper tackles the challenge of forecasting Spanish political trends, characterized by multiple political parties, by means of analyzing the Twitters Users political tendency. According to this, a new strategy, named Tweets Analysis Strategy (TAS), is proposed. This is based on analyzing the users tweets by means of discovering its sentiment (positive, negative or neutral) and classifying them according to the political party they support. From this individual political tendency, the global political prediction for each political party is calculated. In order to do this, two different strategies for analyzing the sentiment analysis are proposed: one is based on Positive and Negative words Matching (PNM) and the second one is based on a Neural Networks Strategy (NNS). The complete TAS strategy has been performed in a Big-Data environment. The experimental results presented in this paper reveal that NNS strategy performs much better than PNM strategy to analyze the tweet sentiment. In addition, this research analyzes the viability of the TAS strategy to obtain the global trend in a political context make up by multiple parties with an error lower than 23%.

Keywords: Political tendency, prediction, sentiment analysis, Twitter.

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9027 Influence of Kinematic, Physical and Mechanical Structure Parameters on Aeroelastic GTU Shaft Vibrations in Magnetic Bearings

Authors: Evgeniia V. Mekhonoshina, Vladimir Ya. Modorskii, Vasilii Yu. Petrov

Abstract:

At present, vibrations of rotors of gas transmittal unit evade sustainable forecasting. This paper describes elastic oscillation modes in resilient supports and rotor impellers modeled during computational experiments with regard to interference in the system of gas-dynamic flow and compressor rotor. Verification of aeroelastic approach was done on model problem of interaction between supersonic jet in shock tube with deformed plate. ANSYS 15.0 engineering analysis system was used as a modeling tool of numerical simulation in this paper. Finite volume method for gas dynamics and finite elements method for assessment of the strain stress state (SSS) components were used as research methods. Rotation speed and material’s elasticity modulus varied during calculations, and SSS components and gas-dynamic parameters in the dynamic system of gas-dynamic flow and compressor rotor were evaluated. The analysis of time dependence demonstrated that gas-dynamic parameters near the rotor blades oscillate at 200 Hz, and SSS parameters at the upper blade edge oscillate four times higher, i.e. with blade frequency. It has been detected that vibration amplitudes correction in the test points at magnetic bearings by aeroelasticity may correspond up to 50%, and about -π/4 for phases.

Keywords: Centrifugal compressor, aeroelasticity, interdisciplinary calculation, oscillation phase displacement, vibration, nonstationarity.

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9026 Environmental Issues Related to Nuclear Desalination

Authors: V. Anastasov, I.Khamis

Abstract:

The paper presents an overview of environmental issues that may be expected with nuclear desalination. The analysis of coupling nuclear power with desalination plants indicates that adverse marine impacts can be mitigated with alternative intake designs or cooling systems. The atmospheric impact of desalination may be greatly reduced through the coupling with nuclear power, while maximizing the socio-economic benefit for both processes. The potential for tritium contamination of the desalinated water was reviewed. Experience with the systems and practices related to the radiological quality of the product water, shows no examples of cross-contamination. Furthermore, the indicators for the public acceptance of nuclear desalination, as one of the most important sustainability aspects of any such large project, show a positive trend. From the data collected, a conclusion is made that nuclear desalination should be supported by decision-makers.

Keywords: Environmental impacts, nuclear desalination, publicacceptance, tritium.

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9025 Image Analysis of Fine Structures of Supercavitation in the Symmetric Wake of a Cylinder

Authors: Y. Obikane , M.Kaneko, K.Kakioka, K.Ogura

Abstract:

The fine structure of supercavitation in the wake of a symmetrical cylinder is studied with high-speed video cameras. The flow is observed in a cavitation tunnel at the speed of 8m/sec when the sidewall and the wake are partially filled with the massive cavitation bubbles. The present experiment observed that a two-dimensional ripple wave with a wave length of 0.3mm is propagated in a downstream direction, and then abruptly increases to a thicker three-dimensional layer. IR-photography recorded that the wakes originated from the horseshoe vortexes alongside the cylinder. The wake was developed to inside the dead water zone, which absorbed the bubbly wake propelled from the separated vortices at the center of the cylinder. A remote sensing classification technique (maximum most likelihood) determined that the surface porosity was 0.2, and the mean speed in the mixed wake was 7m/sec. To confirm the existence of two-dimensional wave motions in the interface, the experiments were conducted at a very low frequency, and showed similar gravity waves in both the upper and lower interfaces.

Keywords: Supercavitation, density gradient correlation

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9024 Design Charts for Strip Footing on Untreated and Cement Treated Sand Mat over Underlying Natural Soft Clay

Authors: Sharifullah Ahmed, Sarwar Jahan Md. Yasin

Abstract:

Shallow foundations on unimproved soft natural soils can undergo a high consolidation and secondary settlement. For low and medium rise building projects on such soil condition, pile foundation may not be cost effective. In such cases an alternative to pile foundations may be shallow strip footings placed on a double layered improved soil system soil. The upper layer of this system is untreated or cement treated compacted sand and underlying layer is natural soft clay. This system will reduce the settlement to an allowable limit. The current research has been conducted with the settlement of a rigid plane-strain strip footing of 2.5 m width placed on the surface of a soil consisting of an untreated or cement treated sand layer overlying a bed of homogeneous soft clay. The settlement of the mentioned shallow foundation has been studied considering both cases with the thicknesses of the sand layer are 0.3 to 0.9 times the width of footing. The response of the clay layer is assumed as undrained for plastic loading stages and drained during consolidation stages. The response of the sand layer is drained during all loading stages. FEM analysis was done using PLAXIS 2D Version 8.0. A natural clay deposit of 15 m thickness and 18 m width has been modeled using Hardening Soil Model, Soft Soil Model, Soft Soil Creep Model, and upper improvement layer has been modeled using only Hardening Soil Model. The groundwater level is at the top level of the clay deposit that made the system fully saturated. Parametric study has been conducted to determine the effect of thickness, density, cementation of the sand mat and density, shear strength of the soft clay layer on the settlement of strip foundation under the uniformly distributed vertical load of varying value. A set of the chart has been established for designing shallow strip footing on the sand mat over thick, soft clay deposit through obtaining the particular thickness of sand mat for particular subsoil parameter to ensure no punching shear failure and no settlement beyond allowable level. Design guideline in the form of non-dimensional charts has been developed for footing pressure equivalent to medium-rise residential or commercial building foundation with strip footing on soft inorganic Normally Consolidated (NC) soil of Bangladesh having void ratio from 1.0 to 1.45.

Keywords: Design charts, ground improvement, PLAXIS 2D, primary and secondary settlement, sand Mat, soft clay.

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9023 2D Human Motion Regeneration with Stick Figure Animation Using Accelerometers

Authors: Alpha Agape Gopalai, S. M. N. Arosha Senanayake

Abstract:

This paper explores the opportunity of using tri-axial wireless accelerometers for supervised monitoring of sports movements. A motion analysis system for the upper extremities of lawn bowlers in particular is developed. Accelerometers are placed on parts of human body such as the chest to represent the shoulder movements, the back to capture the trunk motion, back of the hand, the wrist and one above the elbow, to capture arm movements. These sensors placement are carefully designed in order to avoid restricting bowler-s movements. Data is acquired from these sensors in soft-real time using virtual instrumentation; the acquired data is then conditioned and converted into required parameters for motion regeneration. A user interface was also created to facilitate in the acquisition of data, and broadcasting of commands to the wireless accelerometers. All motion regeneration in this paper deals with the motion of the human body segment in the X and Y direction, looking into the motion of the anterior/ posterior and lateral directions respectively.

Keywords: Motion Regeneration, Virtual Instrumentation, Wireless Accelerometers.

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9022 Influence of Maturation Degree of Arbutus (Arbutus unedo L.) Fruits in Spirit Composition and Quality

Authors: Goreti Botelho, Filomena Gomes, Fernanda M. Ferreira, Ilda Caldeira

Abstract:

The strawberry tree (Arbutus unedo L.) is a small tree or shrub from botanical Ericaceae family that grows spontaneously nearby the Mediterranean basin and produce edible red fruits. A traditional processed fruit application, in Mediterranean countries, is the production of a spirit (known as aguardente de medronho, in Portugal) obtained from the fermented fruit. The main objective of our study was to contribute to the knowledge about the influence of the degree of maturation of fruits in the volatile composition and quality of arbutus spirit. The major volatiles in the three distillates fractions (head, heart and tail) obtained from fermentation of two different fruit maturation levels were quantified by GC-FID analysis and ANOVA one-way was performed. Additionally, the total antioxidant capacity and total phenolic compounds of both arbutus fruit spirits were determined, by ABTS and Folin-Ciocalteau method, respectively. The methanol concentration is higher (1022.39 g/hL a.a.) in the spirit made from fruits with highest total soluble solids, which is a value above the legal limit (1000 g/hL a.a.). Overall, our study emphasizes, for the first time, the influence of maturation degree of arbutus fruits in the spirit volatile composition and quality.

Keywords: Arbutus fruit, maturation, quality, spirit.

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9021 The Guaranteed Detection of the Seismoacoustic Emission Source in the C-OTDR Systems

Authors: Andrey V. Timofeev

Abstract:

A method is proposed for stable detection of seismoacoustic sources in C-OTDR systems that guarantee given upper bounds for probabilities of type I and type II errors. Properties of the proposed method are rigorously proved. The results of practical applications of the proposed method in a real C-OTDRsystem are presented.

Keywords: Guaranteed detection, C-OTDR systems, change point, interval estimation.

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9020 Validation and Selection between Machine Learning Technique and Traditional Methods to Reduce Bullwhip Effects: a Data Mining Approach

Authors: Hamid R. S. Mojaveri, Seyed S. Mousavi, Mojtaba Heydar, Ahmad Aminian

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to present a methodology in three steps to forecast supply chain demand. In first step, various data mining techniques are applied in order to prepare data for entering into forecasting models. In second step, the modeling step, an artificial neural network and support vector machine is presented after defining Mean Absolute Percentage Error index for measuring error. The structure of artificial neural network is selected based on previous researchers' results and in this article the accuracy of network is increased by using sensitivity analysis. The best forecast for classical forecasting methods (Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing, and Exponential Smoothing with Trend) is resulted based on prepared data and this forecast is compared with result of support vector machine and proposed artificial neural network. The results show that artificial neural network can forecast more precisely in comparison with other methods. Finally, forecasting methods' stability is analyzed by using raw data and even the effectiveness of clustering analysis is measured.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), bullwhip effect, demand forecasting, Support Vector Machine (SVM).

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9019 Investigating Climate Change Trend Based on Data Simulation and IPCC Scenario during 2010-2030 AD: Case Study of Fars Province

Authors: Leila Rashidian, Abbas Ebrahimi

Abstract:

The development of industrial activities, increase in fossil fuel consumption, vehicles, destruction of forests and grasslands, changes in land use, and population growth have caused to increase the amount of greenhouse gases especially CO2 in the atmosphere in recent decades. This has led to global warming and climate change. In the present paper, we have investigated the trend of climate change according to the data simulation during the time interval of 2010-2030 in the Fars province. In this research, the daily climatic parameters such as maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation and number of sunny hours during the 1977-2008 time interval for synoptic stations of Shiraz and Abadeh and during 1995-2008 for Lar stations and also the output of HADCM3 model in 2010-2030 time interval have been used based on the A2 propagation scenario. The results of the model show that the average temperature will increase by about 1 degree centigrade and the amount of precipitation will increase by 23.9% compared to the observational data. In conclusion, according to the temperature increase in this province, the amount of precipitation in the form of snow will be reduced and precipitations often will occur in the form of rain. This 1-degree centigrade increase during the season will reduce production by 6 to 10% because of shortening the growing period of wheat.

Keywords: Climate change, Lars.WG, HADCM3 model, Fars province, climatic parameters, A2 scenario.

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9018 Human Motion Regeneration in 2-Dimension as Stick Figure Animation with Accelerometers

Authors: Alpha Agape Gopalai, Darwin Gouwanda, S.M.N. Arosha Senanayake

Abstract:

This paper explores the opportunity of using tri-axial wireless accelerometers for supervised monitoring of sports movements. A motion analysis system for the upper extremities of lawn bowlers in particular is developed. Accelerometers are placed on parts of human body such as the chest to represent the shoulder movements, the back to capture the trunk motion, back of the hand, the wrist and one above the elbow, to capture arm movements. These sensors placement are carefully designed in order to avoid restricting bowler-s movements. Data is acquired from these sensors in soft-real time using virtual instrumentation; the acquired data is then conditioned and converted into required parameters for motion regeneration. A user interface was also created to facilitate in the acquisition of data, and broadcasting of commands to the wireless accelerometers. All motion regeneration in this paper deals with the motion of the human body segment in the X and Y direction, looking into the motion of the anterior/ posterior and lateral directions respectively.

Keywords: Motion Regeneration, Virtual Instrumentation, Wireless Accelerometers

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9017 UEMSD Risk Identification – Case Study

Authors: K. Sekulová, M. Šimon

Abstract:

The article demonstrates on a case study how it is possible to identify MSD risk. It is based on a dissertation Risk identification model of occupational diseases formation in relation to the work activity that determines what risk can endanger workers who are exposed to the specific risk factors. It is evaluated based on statistical calculations. These risk factors are main cause of upperextremities musculoskeletal disorders.

Keywords: Case study, upper-extremity musculoskeletal disorders, ergonomics.

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9016 Nonlinear Response of Infinite Beams on a Tensionless Extensible Geosynthetic – Reinforced Earth Beds under Moving Load

Authors: Karuppsamy K., Eswara Prasad C. R.

Abstract:

In this paper analysis of an infinite beam resting on tensionless extensible geosynthetic reinforced granular bed overlying soft soil strata under moving load with constant velocity is presented. The beam is subjected to a concentrated load moving with constant velocity. The upper reinforced granular bed is modeled by a rough elastic membrane embedded in Pasternak shear layer overlying a series of compressible nonlinear Winkler springs representing the under-lied very poor soil. The tensionless extensible geosynthetic layer has been assumed to deform such that at interface the geosynthetic and the soil have some deformation. Nonlinear behavior of granular fill and the very poor soil has been considered in the analysis by means of hyperbolic constitutive relationships. Detailed parametric study has been conducted to study the influence of various parameters on the response of soil foundation system under consideration by means of deflection and bending moment in the beam and tension mobilized in the geosynthetic layer. This study clearly observed that the comparisons of tension and tensionless foundation and magnitude of applied load, relative compressibility of granular fill and ultimate resistance of poor soil has significant influence on the response of soil foundation system.

Keywords: Infinite Beams, Tensionless Extensible Geosynthetic, Granular layer, Moving Load and Nonlinear behavior of poor soil

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9015 Model of MSD Risk Assessment at Workplace

Authors: K. Sekulová, M. Šimon

Abstract:

This article focuses on upper-extremity musculoskeletal disorders risk assessment model at workplace. In this model are used risk factors that are responsible for musculoskeletal system damage. Based on statistic calculations the model is able to define what risk of MSD threatens workers who are under risk factors. The model is also able to say how MSD risk would decrease if these risk factors are eliminated.

 

Keywords: Ergonomics, musculoskeletal disorders, occupational diseases, risk factors.

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9014 Sedimentological Study of Bivalve Fossils Site Locality in Hong Hoi Formation, Lampang, Thailand

Authors: Kritsada Moonpa, Kannipa Motanated, Weerapan Srichan

Abstract:

Hong Hoi Formation is a Middle Triassic deep marine succession presented in outcrops throughout the Lampang Basin of northern Thailand. The primary goal of this research is to diagnose the paleoenvironment, petrographic compositions, and sedimentary sources of the Hong Hoi Formation in Ban Huat, Ngao District. The Triassic Hong Hoi Formation is chosen because the outcrops are continuous and fossils are greatly exposed and abundant. Depositional environment is reconstructed through sedimentological studies along with facies analysis. The Hong Hoi Formation is petrographically divided into two major facies, they are: sandstones with mudstone interbeds, and mudstones or shale with sandstone interbeds. Sandstone beds are lithic arenite and lithic greywacke, volcanic lithic fragments are dominated. Sedimentary structures, paleocurrent data and lithofacies arrangement indicate that the formation deposited in a part of deep marine abyssal plain environment. The sedimentological and petrographic features suggest that during the deposition the Hong Hoi Formation received sediment supply from nearby volcanic arc. This suggested that the intensive volcanic activity within the Sukhothai Arc during the Middle Triassic is the main sediment source.

Keywords: Sukhothai Zone, petrography, Hong Hoi Formation, Lampang, Triassic.

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9013 Stock Price Forecast by Using Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System

Authors: Ebrahim Abbasi, Amir Abouec

Abstract:

In this research, the researchers have managed to design a model to investigate the current trend of stock price of the "IRAN KHODRO corporation" at Tehran Stock Exchange by utilizing an Adaptive Neuro - Fuzzy Inference system. For the Longterm Period, a Neuro-Fuzzy with two Triangular membership functions and four independent Variables including trade volume, Dividend Per Share (DPS), Price to Earning Ratio (P/E), and also closing Price and Stock Price fluctuation as an dependent variable are selected as an optimal model. For the short-term Period, a neureo – fuzzy model with two triangular membership functions for the first quarter of a year, two trapezoidal membership functions for the Second quarter of a year, two Gaussian combination membership functions for the third quarter of a year and two trapezoidal membership functions for the fourth quarter of a year were selected as an optimal model for the stock price forecasting. In addition, three independent variables including trade volume, price to earning ratio, closing Stock Price and a dependent variable of stock price fluctuation were selected as an optimal model. The findings of the research demonstrate that the trend of stock price could be forecasted with the lower level of error.

Keywords: Stock Price forecast, membership functions, Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System, trade volume, P/E, DPS.

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9012 A New Integer Programming Formulation for the Chinese Postman Problem with Time Dependent Travel Times

Authors: Jinghao Sun, Guozhen Tan, Guangjian Hou

Abstract:

The Chinese Postman Problem (CPP) is one of the classical problems in graph theory and is applicable in a wide range of fields. With the rapid development of hybrid systems and model based testing, Chinese Postman Problem with Time Dependent Travel Times (CPPTDT) becomes more realistic than the classical problems. In the literature, we have proposed the first integer programming formulation for the CPPTDT problem, namely, circuit formulation, based on which some polyhedral results are investigated and a cutting plane algorithm is also designed. However, there exists a main drawback: the circuit formulation is only available for solving the special instances with all circuits passing through the origin. Therefore, this paper proposes a new integer programming formulation for solving all the general instances of CPPTDT. Moreover, the size of the circuit formulation is too large, which is reduced dramatically here. Thus, it is possible to design more efficient algorithm for solving the CPPTDT in the future research.

Keywords: Chinese Postman Problem, Time Dependent, Integer Programming, Upper Bound Analysis.

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