Search results for: risk reduction.

Authors: V. Sudha, D. Sriram Kumar

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In this paper, we present a low complexity hybrid scheme using conventional selective mapping (C-SLM) and clipping algorithms to reduce the high peak-to-average power ratio (PAPR) of orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) signal. In the proposed scheme, the input data sequence (X) is divided into two sub-blocks, then clipping algorithm is applied to the first sub-block, whereas C-SLM algorithm is applied to the second sub-block in order to reduce both computational complexity and PAPR. The resultant time domain OFDM signal is obtained by combining the output of two sub-blocks. The simulation results show that the proposed hybrid scheme provides 0.45 dB PAPR reduction gain at CCDF value of 10-2 and 52% of computational complexity reduction when compared to C-SLM scheme at the expense of slight degradation in bit error rate (BER) performance.

Keywords: CCDF, Clipping, OFDM, PAPR, SLM.

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Authors: N. A. Samat, S. H. Mohd Imam Ma’arof

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Dengue disease is an infectious vector-borne viral disease that is commonly found in tropical and sub-tropical regions, especially in urban and semi-urban areas, around the world and including Malaysia. There is no currently available vaccine or chemotherapy for the prevention or treatment of dengue disease. Therefore prevention and treatment of the disease depend on vector surveillance and control measures. Disease risk mapping has been recognized as an important tool in the prevention and control strategies for diseases. The choice of statistical model used for relative risk estimation is important as a good model will subsequently produce a good disease risk map. Therefore, the aim of this study is to estimate the relative risk for dengue disease based initially on the most common statistic used in disease mapping called Standardized Morbidity Ratio (SMR) and one of the earliest applications of Bayesian methodology called Poisson-gamma model. This paper begins by providing a review of the SMR method, which we then apply to dengue data of Perak, Malaysia. We then fit an extension of the SMR method, which is the Poisson-gamma model. Both results are displayed and compared using graph, tables and maps. Results of the analysis shows that the latter method gives a better relative risk estimates compared with using the SMR. The Poisson-gamma model has been demonstrated can overcome the problem of SMR when there is no observed dengue cases in certain regions. However, covariate adjustment in this model is difficult and there is no possibility for allowing spatial correlation between risks in adjacent areas. The drawbacks of this model have motivated many researchers to propose other alternative methods for estimating the risk.

Keywords: Dengue disease, Disease mapping, Standardized Morbidity Ratio, Poisson-gamma model, Relative risk.

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Authors: L. Della Ragione, G. Meccariello

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In recent years in Italy the progress of the automobile industry, in the field of reduction of emissions values, is very remarkable. Nevertheless their evaluation and reduction is a key problem, especially in the cities, that account for more than 50% of world population. In this paper we dealt with the problem of describing a quantitatively approach for the reconstruction of GPS coordinates and altitude, in the context of correlation study between driving cycles / emission / geographical location, during an experimental campaign realized with some instrumented cars.

Keywords: Air pollution, Driving cycles, GPS signal.

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Authors: Manel Mosbahi

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The risk of water erosion is one of the main environmental concerns in the southern Mediterranean regions. Thus, quantification of soil loss is an important issue for soil and water conservation managers. The objective of this paper is to examine the applicability of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model in The Sarrath river catchment, North of Tunisia, and to identify the most vulnerable areas in order to help manager implement an effective management program. The spatial analysis of the results shows that 7 % of the catchment experiences very high erosion risk, in need for suitable conservation measures to be adopted on a priority basis. The spatial distribution of erosion risk classes estimated 3% high, 5,4% tolerable, and 84,6% low. Among the 27 delineated subcatchments only 4 sub-catchments are found to be under high and very high soil loss group, two sub-catchments fell under moderate soil loss group, whereas other sub-catchments are under low soil loss group.

Keywords: Critical source areas, Erosion risk, SWAT model.

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Authors: Kevin Fong-Rey Liu, Ken Yeh, Cheng-Wu Chen, Han-Hsi Liang

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This paper proposes the use of Bayesian belief networks (BBN) as a higher level of health risk assessment for a dumping site of lead battery smelter factory. On the basis of the epidemiological studies, the actual hospital attendance records and expert experiences, the BBN is capable of capturing the probabilistic relationships between the hazardous substances and their adverse health effects, and accordingly inferring the morbidity of the adverse health effects. The provision of the morbidity rates of the related diseases is more informative and can alleviate the drawbacks of conventional methods.

Keywords: Bayesian belief networks, lead battery smelter factory, health risk assessment.

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Authors: G. M. Mir, N. A. Shah, Moinuddin

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Guard channels improve the probability of successful handoffs by reserving a number of channels exclusively for handoffs. This concept has the risk of underutilization of radio spectrum due to the fact that fewer channels are granted to originating calls even if these guard channels are not always used, when originating calls are starving for the want of channels. The penalty is the reduction of total carried traffic. The optimum number of guard channels can help reduce this problem. This paper presents fuzzy logic based guard channel scheme wherein guard channels are reorganized on the basis of traffic density, so that guard channels are provided on need basis. This will help in incorporating more originating calls and hence high throughput of the radio spectrum

Keywords: Free channels, fuzzy logic, guard channels, Handoff

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Authors: Sanjay Singh, M Sathish Kumar, H. S Mruthyunjaya

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Multicarrier transmission system such as Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (OFDM) is a promising technique for high bit rate transmission in wireless communication system. OFDM is a spectrally efficient modulation technique that can achieve high speed data transmission over multipath fading channels without the need for powerful equalization techniques. However the price paid for this high spectral efficiency and less intensive equalization is low power efficiency. OFDM signals are very sensitive to nonlinear effects due to the high Peak-to-Average Power Ratio (PAPR), which leads to the power inefficiency in the RF section of the transmitter. This paper investigates the effect of PAPR reduction on the performance parameter of multicarrier communication system. Performance parameters considered are power consumption of Power Amplifier (PA) and Digital-to-Analog Converter (DAC), power amplifier efficiency, SNR of DAC and BER performance of the system. From our analysis it is found that irrespective of PAPR reduction technique being employed, the power consumption of PA and DAC reduces and power amplifier efficiency increases due to reduction in PAPR. Moreover, it has been shown that for a given BER performance the requirement of Input-Backoff (IBO) reduces with reduction in PAPR.

Keywords: BER, Crest Factor (CF), Digital-to-Analog Converter(DAC), Input-Backoff (IBO), Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing(OFDM), Peak-to-Average Power Ratio (PAPR), PowerAmplifier efficiency, SNR

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Authors: Leandi Steenkamp

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The sectional title industry has been a part of the property landscape in South Africa for almost half a century, and plays a significant role in addressing the housing problem in the country. Stakeholders such as owners and investors in sectional title property are in most cases not directly involved in the management thereof, and place reliance on the audited annual financial statements of bodies corporate for decision-making purposes. Although the industry seems to be highly regulated, the legislation regarding accounting and auditing of sectional title is vague and ambiguous. Furthermore, there are no industry-specific auditing and accounting standards to guide accounting and auditing practitioners in performing their work and industry financial benchmarks are not readily available. In addition, financial pressure on sectional title schemes is often very high due to the fact that some owners exercise unrealistic pressure to keep monthly levies as low as possible. All these factors have an impact on the business risk as well as audit risk of bodies corporate. Very little academic research has been undertaken on the sectional title industry in South Africa from an accounting and auditing perspective. The aim of this paper is threefold: Firstly, to discuss the findings of a literature review on uncertainties, ambiguity and confusing aspects in current legislation regarding the audit of a sectional title property that may cause or increase audit and business risk. Secondly, empirical findings of risk-related aspects from the results of interviews with three groups of body corporate role-players will be discussed. The role-players were body corporate trustee chairpersons, body corporate managing agents and accounting and auditing practitioners of bodies corporate. Specific reference will be made to business risk and audit risk. Thirdly, practical recommendations will be made on possibilities of closing the audit expectation gap, and further research opportunities in this regard will be discussed.

Keywords: Assurance, audit, audit risk, body corporate, corporate governance, sectional title.

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Authors: E. Bárcena-Martín, S. Pérez-Moreno

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This paper explores the extent of the gap in poverty rates between immigrant and native households in Spanish regions and assess to what extent regional differences in individual and contextual characteristics can explain the divergences in such a gap. By using multilevel techniques and European Union Survey on Income and Living Conditions, we estimate immigrant households experiments an increase of 76 per cent in the odds of being poor compared with a native one when we control by individual variables. In relation to regional differences in the risk of poverty, regionallevel variables have higher effect in the reduction of these differences than individual variables.

Keywords: Immigration, Multilevel Analysis, Poverty, Spanish Regions

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Authors: Alan Walsh, Peter Walker, Michael Ellis

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There is a real danger that both practitioners and researchers considering risks associated with megaprojects ignore or underestimate the impacts of cultural risk. The paper investigates the potential impacts of a failure to achieve cultural unity between the principal actors executing a megaproject. The principle relationships include the relationships between the principle Contractors and the project stakeholders or the project stakeholders and their principle advisors, Western Consultants. This study confirms that cultural dissonance between these parties can delay or disrupt the megaproject execution and examines why cultural issues should be prioritized as a significant risk factor in megaproject delivery. This paper addresses the practical impacts and potential mitigation measures, which may reduce cultural dissonance for a megaproject's delivery. This information is retrieved from on-going case studies in live infrastructure megaprojects in Europe and the Middle East's GCC states, from Western Consultants' perspective. The collaborating researchers each have at least 30 years of construction experience and are engaged in architecture, project management and contracts management, dealing with megaprojects in Europe or the GCC. After examining the cultural interfaces they have observed during the execution of megaprojects, they conclude that globally, culture significantly influences their efficient delivery. The study finds that cultural risk is ever-present, where different nationalities co-manage megaprojects and that cultural conflict poses a real threat to the timely delivery of megaprojects. The study indicates that the higher the cultural distance between the principal actors, the more pronounced the risk, with the risk of cultural dissonance more prominent in GCC megaprojects. The findings support a more culturally aware and cohesive team approach and recommend cross-cultural training to mitigate the effects of cultural disparity.

Keywords: Cultural risk underestimation, cultural distance, megaproject characteristics, megaproject execution.

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Authors: Majid Tolouei-Rad

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This paper describes a combined mathematicalgraphical approach for optimum tool path planning in order to improve machining efficiency. A methodology has been used that stabilizes machining operations by adjusting material removal rate in pocket milling operations while keeping cutting forces within limits. This increases the life of cutting tool and reduces the risk of tool breakage, machining vibration, and chatter. Case studies reveal the fact that application of this approach could result in a slight increase of machining time, however, a considerable reduction of tooling cost, machining vibration, noise and chatter can be achieved in addition to producing a better surface finish.

Keywords: CNC machines, milling, optimization, removal rate.

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Authors: D. M. Mongelli, M. De Carli, L. Carnieletto, F. Busato

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This research aims to provide a contribution to the reduction of fossil fuels and the consequent reduction of CO2eq emissions for each European region. Simulations have been carried out to replace fossil fuel fired heating boilers with air-to-water heat pumps, when allowed by favorable environmental conditions (outdoor temperature, water temperature in emission systems, etc.). To estimate the potential coverage of high-temperature heat pumps in European regions, the energy profiles of buildings were considered together with the potential coefficient of performance (COP) of heat pumps operating with flow temperature with variable climatic regulation. The electrification potential for heating buildings was estimated by dividing the 38 European countries examined into 179 territorial units. The yields have been calculated in terms of energy savings and CO2eq reduction.

Keywords: Decarbonization, Space heating, Heat pumps, Energy policies.

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Authors: C. L. Voon, M. Awang

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CO₂ miscible displacement is not feasible in many oil fields due to high reservoir temperature as higher pressure is required to achieve miscibility. The miscibility pressure is far higher than the formation fracture pressure making it impossible to have CO₂ miscible displacement. However, by using oleophilic chemicals, minimum miscibility pressure (MMP) could be lowered. The main objective of this research is to find the best oleophilic chemical in MMP reduction using slim-tube test and Vanishing Interfacial Tension (VIT) The chemicals are selected based on the characteristics that it must be oil soluble, low water solubility, have 4 – 8 carbons, semi polar, economical, and safe for human operation. The families of chemicals chosen are carboxylic acid, alcohol, and ketone. The whole experiment would be conducted at 100°C and the best chemical is said to be effective when it is able to lower CO₂-crude oil MMP the most. Findings of this research would have great impact to the oil and gas industry in reduction of operation cost for CO₂EOR which is applicable to both onshore and offshore operation.

Keywords: Enhanced Oil Recovery, Oleophilic Chemical, Minimum Miscibility Pressure, CO2 Miscible Displacement.

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Authors: Gregor Radonjič, Aleksandra P. Korda, Damijan Krajnc

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The aim of the study was to investigate whether there is the promotion of product ecodesign measures as a result of adopting ISO 14001 certification in manufacturing companies in the Republic of Slovenia. Companies gave the most of their product development attention to waste and energy reduction during manufacturing process and reduction of material consumption per unit of product. Regarding the importance of different ecodesign criteria reduction of material consumption per unit of product was reported as the most important criterion. Less attention is paid to endof- life issues considering recycling or packaging. Most manufacturing enterprises considered ISO 14001 standard as a very useful tool or at least a useful tool helping them to accelerate and establish product ecodesign activities. Two most frequently considered ecodesign drivers are increased competitive advantage and legal requirements and two most important barriers are high development costs and insufficient market demand.

Keywords: ecodesign, environmental management system, ISO 14001, products

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Authors: Hiroki Satou, Kayoko Yamamoto

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This study aims to propose three evaluation methods to evaluate the Tokyo Cap and Trade Program when emissions trading is performed virtually among enterprises, focusing on carbon dioxide (CO2), which is the only emitted greenhouse gas that tends to increase. The first method clarifies the optimum reduction rate for the highest cost benefit, the second discusses emissions trading among enterprises through market trading, and the third verifies long-term emissions trading during the term of the plan (2010-2019), checking the validity of emissions trading partly using Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The findings of this study can be summarized in the following three points. 1. Since the total cost benefit is the greatest at a 44% reduction rate, it is possible to set it more highly than that of the Tokyo Cap and Trade Program to get more total cost benefit. 2. At a 44% reduction rate, among 320 enterprises, 8 purchasing enterprises and 245 sales enterprises gain profits from emissions trading, and 67 enterprises perform voluntary reduction without conducting emissions trading. Therefore, to further promote emissions trading, it is necessary to increase the sales volumes of emissions trading in addition to sales enterprises by increasing the number of purchasing enterprises. 3. Compared to short-term emissions trading, there are few enterprises which benefit in each year through the long-term emissions trading of the Tokyo Cap and Trade Program. Only 81 enterprises at the most can gain profits from emissions trading in FY 2019. Therefore, by setting the reduction rate more highly, it is necessary to increase the number of enterprises that participate in emissions trading and benefit from the restraint of CO2 emissions.

Keywords: Emissions Trading, Tokyo Cap and Trade Program, Carbon Dioxide (CO2), Global Warming, Geographic Information Systems (GIS)

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Authors: G. Quiroga-Cubides, A. Díaz, M. Gómez

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The genus Azotobacter has been widely used as bio-fertilizer due to its significant effects on the stimulation and promotion of plant growth in various agricultural species of commercial interest. In order to obtain significantly viable cellular concentration, a scale-up strategy for a liquid fermentation process (SmF) with two strains of A. chroococcum (named Ac1 and Ac10) was validated and adjusted at laboratory and pilot scale. A batch fermentation process under previously defined conditions was carried out on a biorreactor Infors®, model Minifors of 3.5 L, which served as a baseline for this research. For the purpose of increasing process efficiency, the effect of the reduction of stirring speed was evaluated in combination with a fed-batch-type fermentation laboratory scale. To reproduce the efficiency parameters obtained, a scale-up strategy with geometric and fluid dynamic behavior similarities was evaluated. According to the analysis of variance, this scale-up strategy did not have significant effect on cellular concentration and in laboratory and pilot fermentations (Tukey, p > 0.05). Regarding air consumption, fermentation process at pilot scale showed a reduction of 23% versus the baseline. The percentage of reduction related to energy consumption reduction under laboratory and pilot scale conditions was 96.9% compared with baseline.

Keywords: Azotobacter chroococcum, scale-up, liquid fermentation, fed-batch process.

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Authors: Mussa Mahmoudi

Abstract:

For Seismic design, it is important to estimate, maximum lateral displacement (inelastic displacement) of the structures due to sever earthquakes for several reasons. Seismic design provisions estimate the maximum roof and storey drifts occurring in major earthquakes by amplifying the drifts of the structures obtained by elastic analysis subjected to seismic design load, with a coefficient named “displacement amplification factor" which is greater than one. Here, this coefficient depends on various parameters, such as ductility and overstrength factors. The present research aims to evaluate the value of the displacement amplification factor in seismic design codes and then tries to propose a value to estimate the maximum lateral structural displacement from sever earthquakes, without using non-linear analysis. In seismic codes, since the displacement amplification is related to “force reduction factor" hence; this aspect has been accepted in the current study. Meanwhile, two methodologies are applied to evaluate the value of displacement amplification factor and its relation with the force reduction factor. In the first methodology, which is applied for all structures, the ratio of displacement amplification and force reduction factors is determined directly. Whereas, in the second methodology that is applicable just for R/C moment resisting frame, the ratio is obtained by calculating both factors, separately. The acquired results of these methodologies are alike and estimate the ratio of two factors from 1 to 1.2. The results indicate that the ratio of the displacement amplification factor and the force reduction factor differs to those proposed by seismic provisions such as NEHRP, IBC and Iranian seismic code (standard no. 2800).

Keywords: Displacement amplification factor, Ductility factor, Force reduction factor, Maximum lateral displacement.

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Authors: Nahid Hassanshahi, Ayoub Karimi-Jashni, Nasser Talebbeydokhti

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Due to the economic and environmental benefits of producing less waste, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) introduces source reduction as one of the most important means to deal with the problems caused by increased landfills and pollution. Waste reduction involves all waste management methods, including source reduction, recycling, and composting, which reduce waste flow to landfills or other disposal facilities. Source reduction of waste can be studied from two perspectives: avoiding waste production, or reducing per capita waste production, and waste deviation that indicates the reduction of waste transfer to landfills. The present paper has investigated home composting as a managerial solution for reduction of waste transfer to landfills. Home composting has many benefits. The use of household waste for the production of compost will result in a much smaller amount of waste being sent to landfills, which in turn will reduce the costs of waste collection, transportation and burial. Reducing the volume of waste for disposal and using them for the production of compost and plant fertilizer might help to recycle the material in a shorter time and to use them effectively in order to preserve the environment and reduce contamination. Producing compost in a home-based manner requires very small piece of land for preparation and recycling compared with other methods. The final product of home-made compost is valuable and helps to grow crops and garden plants. It is also used for modifying the soil structure and maintaining its moisture. The food that is transferred to landfills will spoil and produce leachate after a while. It will also release methane and greenhouse gases. But, composting these materials at home is the best way to manage degradable materials, use them efficiently and reduce environmental pollution. Studies have shown that the benefits of the sale of produced compost and the reduced costs of collecting, transporting, and burying waste can well be responsive to the costs of purchasing home compost machine and the cost of related trainings. Moreover, the process of producing home compost may be profitable within 4 to 5 years and as a result, it will have a major role in reducing waste management.

Keywords: Compost, home compost, reducing waste, waste management.

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Authors: J. S. Yadav, N. P. Patidar, J. Singhai

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One of the main objectives of order reduction is to design a controller of lower order which can effectively control the original high order system so that the overall system is of lower order and easy to understand. In this paper, a simple method is presented for controller design of a higher order discrete system. First the original higher order discrete system in reduced to a lower order model. Then a Proportional Integral Derivative (PID) controller is designed for lower order model. An error minimization technique is employed for both order reduction and controller design. For the error minimization purpose, Differential Evolution (DE) optimization algorithm has been employed. DE method is based on the minimization of the Integral Squared Error (ISE) between the desired response and actual response pertaining to a unit step input. Finally the designed PID controller is connected to the original higher order discrete system to get the desired specification. The validity of the proposed method is illustrated through a numerical example.

Keywords: Discrete System, Model Order Reduction, PIDController, Integral Squared Error, Differential Evolution.

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Authors: D. M. Reddy Prasad, Nur Sabrina Binti Rahmat, Huei Ruey Ong, Chin Kui Cheng, Maksudur Rahman Khan, D. Sathiyamoorthy

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Carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission to the environment is inevitable which is responsible for global warming. Photocatalytic reduction of CO₂ to fuel, such as methanol, methane etc. is a promising way to reduce greenhouse gas CO₂ emission. In the present work, Bi₂S₃/CdS was synthesized as an effective visible light responsive photocatalyst for CO₂ reduction into methanol. The Bi₂S₃/CdS photocatalyst was prepared by hydrothermal reaction. The catalyst was characterized by X-ray diffraction (XRD) instrument. The photocatalytic activity of the catalyst has been investigated for methanol production as a function of time. Gas chromatograph flame ionization detector (GC-FID) was employed to analyze the product. The yield of methanol was found to increase with higher CdS concentration in Bi₂S₃/CdS and the maximum yield was obtained for 45 wt% of Bi₂S₃/CdS under visible light irradiation was 20 μmole/g. The result establishes that Bi₂S₃/CdS is favorable catalyst to reduce CO₂ to methanol.

Keywords: Photocatalyst, Carbon dioxide reduction, visible light, Irradiation.

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Authors: P.K. Sharma, B. Bhargava, S. Akashe

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Power dissipation due to leakage current in the digital circuits is a biggest factor which is considered specially while designing nanoscale circuits. This paper is exploring the ideas of reducing leakage current in static CMOS circuits by stacking the transistors in increasing numbers. Clearly it means that the stacking of OFF transistors in large numbers result a significant reduction in power dissipation. Increase in source voltage of NMOS transistor minimizes the leakage current. Thus stacking technique makes circuit with minimum power dissipation losses due to leakage current. Also some of digital circuits such as full adder, D flip flop and 6T SRAM have been simulated in this paper, with the application of reduction technique on ‘cadence virtuoso tool’ using specter at 45nm technology with supply voltage 0.7V.

Keywords: Stack, 6T SRAM cell, low power, threshold voltage

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Authors: M. Sadeghi, H. Pezeshk, R. Tusserkani, A. Sharifi Zarchi, A. Malekpour, M. Foroughmand, S. Goliaei, M. Totonchi, N. Ansari–Pour

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The role and relative importance of intrinsic and extrinsic factors in the development of complex diseases such as cancer still remains a controversial issue. Determining the amount of variation explained by these factors needs experimental data and statistical models. These models are nevertheless based on the occurrence and accumulation of random mutational events during stem cell division, thus rendering cancer development a stochastic outcome. We demonstrate that not only individual genome sequencing is uninformative in determining cancer risk, but also assigning a unique genome sequence to any given individual (healthy or affected) is not meaningful. Current whole-genome sequencing approaches are therefore unlikely to realize the promise of personalized medicine. In conclusion, since genome sequence differs from cell to cell and changes over time, it seems that determining the risk factor of complex diseases based on genome sequence is somewhat unrealistic, and therefore, the resulting data are likely to be inherently uninformative.

Keywords: Cancer risk, extrinsic factors, genome sequencing, intrinsic factors.

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Authors: Chen Wu, Lijuan Wang

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Relation between tolerance class and indispensable attribute and knowledge dependency in rough set model with tolerance relation is explored. After giving definitions and concepts of knowledge dependency and knowledge dependency degree for incomplete information system in tolerance rough set model by distinguishing decision attribute containing missing attribute value or not, the result of maintaining reflectivity, transitivity, augmentation, decomposition law and merge law for complete knowledge dependency is proved. Knowledge dependency degrees (not complete knowledge dependency degrees) only satisfy some laws after transitivity, augmentation and decomposition operations. An algorithm to solve attribute reduction in an incomplete decision table is designed. The correctness is checked by an example.

Keywords: Incomplete information system, rough set, tolerance relation, knowledge dependence, attribute reduction.

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Authors: Ismail Karaca, Ridvan Saracoglu, Omer Soner

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Fuzzy Logic, an advanced method to support decision-making, is used by various scientists in many disciplines. Fuzzy programming is a product of fuzzy logic, fuzzy rules, and implication. In marine science, fuzzy programming for ships is dramatically increasing together with autonomous ship studies. In this paper, a program to support the decision-making process for ship navigation has been designed. The program is produced in fuzzy logic and rules, by taking the marine accidents and expert opinions into account. After the program was designed, the program was tested by 46 ship accidents reported by the Transportation Safety Investigation Center of Turkey. Wind speed, sea condition, visibility, day/night ratio have been used as input data. They have been converted into a risk factor within the Fuzzy Logic Designer application and fuzzy rules set by marine experts. Finally, the expert's meteorological risk factor for each accident is compared with the program's risk factor, and the error rate was calculated. The main objective of this study is to improve the navigational safety of ships, by using the advance decision support model. According to the study result, fuzzy programming is a robust model that supports safe navigation.

Keywords: Calculation of risk factor, fuzzy logic, fuzzy programming for ship, safe navigation of ships.

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Authors: Michiharu Maeda, Shinya Tsuda

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This paper presents an algorithm of particle swarm optimization with reduction for global optimization problems. Particle swarm optimization is an algorithm which refers to the collective motion such as birds or fishes, and a multi-point search algorithm which finds a best solution using multiple particles. Particle swarm optimization is so flexible that it can adapt to a number of optimization problems. When an objective function has a lot of local minimums complicatedly, the particle may fall into a local minimum. For avoiding the local minimum, a number of particles are initially prepared and their positions are updated by particle swarm optimization. Particles sequentially reduce to reach a predetermined number of them grounded in evaluation value and particle swarm optimization continues until the termination condition is met. In order to show the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm, we examine the minimum by using test functions compared to existing algorithms. Furthermore the influence of best value on the initial number of particles for our algorithm is discussed.

Keywords: Particle swarm optimization, Global optimization, Metaheuristics, Reduction.

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Authors: Dyah E. Herwindiati

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A clustering is process to identify a homogeneous groups of object called as cluster. Clustering is one interesting topic on data mining. A group or class behaves similarly characteristics. This paper discusses a robust clustering process for data images with two reduction dimension approaches; i.e. the two dimensional principal component analysis (2DPCA) and principal component analysis (PCA). A standard approach to overcome this problem is dimension reduction, which transforms a high-dimensional data into a lower-dimensional space with limited loss of information. One of the most common forms of dimensionality reduction is the principal components analysis (PCA). The 2DPCA is often called a variant of principal component (PCA), the image matrices were directly treated as 2D matrices; they do not need to be transformed into a vector so that the covariance matrix of image can be constructed directly using the original image matrices. The decomposed classical covariance matrix is very sensitive to outlying observations. The objective of paper is to compare the performance of robust minimizing vector variance (MVV) in the two dimensional projection PCA (2DPCA) and the PCA for clustering on an arbitrary data image when outliers are hiden in the data set. The simulation aspects of robustness and the illustration of clustering images are discussed in the end of paper

Keywords: Breakdown point, Consistency, 2DPCA, PCA, Outlier, Vector Variance

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Authors: Rao Fu, Jie Chen, Shutian Zeng, Yiping Zhuang, Agus Sudjianto

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Generative Adversarial Net (GAN) has proved to be a powerful machine learning tool in image data analysis and generation. In this paper, we propose to use Conditional Generative Adversarial Net (CGAN) to learn and simulate time series data. The conditions include both categorical and continuous variables with different auxiliary information. Our simulation studies show that CGAN has the capability to learn different types of normal and heavy-tailed distributions, as well as dependent structures of different time series. It also has the capability to generate conditional predictive distributions consistent with training data distributions. We also provide an in-depth discussion on the rationale behind GAN and the neural networks as hierarchical splines to establish a clear connection with existing statistical methods of distribution generation. In practice, CGAN has a wide range of applications in market risk and counterparty risk analysis: it can be applied to learn historical data and generate scenarios for the calculation of Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES), and it can also predict the movement of the market risk factors. We present a real data analysis including a backtesting to demonstrate that CGAN can outperform Historical Simulation (HS), a popular method in market risk analysis to calculate VaR. CGAN can also be applied in economic time series modeling and forecasting. In this regard, we have included an example of hypothetical shock analysis for economic models and the generation of potential CCAR scenarios by CGAN at the end of the paper.

Keywords: Conditional Generative Adversarial Net, market and credit risk management, neural network, time series.

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Authors: Chiu-Wen Chen, Chih-Feng Chen, Cheng-Di Dong

Abstract:

This study was conducted using the data collected at the mouth of Jen-Gen River to investigate and analyze chromium (Cr) contained in the sediments, and to evaluate the accumulation of Cr and the degree of its potential risk. The results show that samples collected at all monitoring stations near the mouth of Jen-Gen River contain 92–567 mg/kg of Cr with average of 366±166 mg/kg. The spatial distribution of Cr reveals that the Cr concentration is relatively high in the river mouth region, and gradually diminishes toward the harbor region. This indicates that upstream industrial and municipal wastewater discharges along the river bank are major sources of pollution. The accumulation factor and potential ecological risk index indicate that the sedimentation at Jen-Gen River mouth has the most serious degree of Cr accumulation and the highest ecological potential risk.

Keywords: chromium, sediment, river mouth, enrichment factor

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Authors: Muntanavadee Maytapattana

Abstract:

The purposes of the study were to evaluate the effectiveness of the Parent Training Program for Obesity Reduction (PTPOR) on health behaviors of school-age children. An Ecological Systems Theory (EST) was approached the study and a randomized control trial was used in this study. Participants were school-age overweight or obese children and their parents. One hundred and one parent-child dyads were recruited and random assigned into the PTPOR (N=30), Educational Intervention or EI (N=32), and control group (N=39). The parents in the PTPOR group participated in five sessions including an educational session, a cooking session, aerobic exercise training, 2-time group discussion sessions, and 4-time telephoned counseling sessions. Repeated Measure ANCOVA was used to analyze data. The results presented that the outcomes of the PTPOR group were better than the EI and the control groups at 1^st, 8^th, and 32^nd weeks after finishing the program such as child exercise behavior (F_(2,97) = 3.98, p = .02) and child dietary behavior (F_(2,97) = 9.42, p = .00). The results suggest that nurses and health care providers should utilize the PTPOR for child weight reduction and for the health promotion of a lifestyle among overweight and obese children.

Keywords: Parent training program for obesity reduction, child health behaviors, school-age children.

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Authors: Yusuf Garba Baba

Abstract:

The construction industry and housing subsector are fraught with risks that have the potential of negatively impacting on the achievement of project objectives. The success or otherwise of most construction projects depends to large extent on how well these risks have been managed. The recent paradigm shift by the subsector to use of formal risk management approach in contrast to hitherto developed rules of thumb means that risks must not only be identified but also properly assessed and responded to in a systematic manner. The study focused on identifying risks associated with housing development projects and prioritisation assessment of the identified risks in order to provide basis for informed decision. The study used a three-step identification framework: review of literature for similar projects, expert consultation and questionnaire based survey to identify potential risk factors. Delphi survey method was employed in carrying out the relative prioritization assessment of the risks factors using computer-based Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) software. The results show that 19 out of the 50 risks significantly impact on housing development projects. The study concludes that although significant numbers of risk factors have been identified as having relevance and impacting to housing construction projects, economic risk group and, in particular, ‘changes in demand for houses’ is prioritised by most developers as posing a threat to the achievement of their housing development objectives. Unless these risks are carefully managed, their effects will continue to impede success in these projects. The study recommends the adoption and use of the combination of multi-technique identification framework and AHP prioritization assessment methodology as a suitable model for the assessment of risks in housing development projects.

Keywords: Risk identification, risk assessment, analytical hierarchical process, multi-criteria decision.

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