Search results for: Risk assessing

Authors: Phayong Thepaksorn

Abstract:

The objective of this study was to assess whether living in proximity to a roofing fiber cement factory in southern Thailand was associated with physical, mental, social, and spiritual health domains measured in a self-reported health risk assessment (HRA) questionnaire. A cross-sectional study was conducted among community members divided into two groups: near population (living within 0-2km of factory) and far population (living within 2-5km of factory) (N=198). A greater proportion of those living far from the factory (65.34%) reported physical health problems than the near group (51.04%) (p =0.032). This study has demonstrated that the near population group had higher proportion of participants with positive ratings on mental assessment (30.34%) and social health impacts (28.42%) than far population group (10.59% and 16.67%, respectively) (p <0.001). The near population group (29.79%) had similar proportion of participants with positive ratings in spiritual health impacts compared with far population group (27.08%). Among females, but not males, this study demonstrated that a higher proportion of the near population had a positive summative score for the self-HRA, which included all four health domain, compared to the far population (p<0.001 for females; p = 0.154 for males). In conclusion, this self-HRA of physical, mental, social, and spiritual health domains reflected the risk perceptions of populations living in the vicinity of the roofing fiber cement factory. This type of tool can bring attention to population concerns and complaints in the factory’s surrounding community. Our findings may contribute to future development of self-HRA for HIA development procedure in Thailand.

Keywords: Cement dust, health impact assessment, risk assessment, walk-though survey.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1923

Authors: Buket Metin

Abstract:

Buildings cause a variety of loads on the environment due to activities performed at each stage of the building life cycle. Construction is the first stage that affects both the natural and built environments at different steps of the process, which can be defined as transportation of materials within the construction site, formation and preparation of materials on-site and the application of materials to realize the building subsystems. All of these steps require the use of technology, which varies based on the facilities that contractors and subcontractors have. Hence, environmental consequences of the construction process should be tackled by focusing on construction technology options used in every step of the process. This paper presents an environmental decision-making model for assessing on-site performances of subcontractors based on the construction technology options which they can supply. First, construction technologies, which constitute information, tools and methods, are classified. Then, environmental performance criteria are set forth related to resource consumption, ecosystem quality, and human health issues. Finally, the model is developed based on the relationships between the construction technology components and the environmental performance criteria. The Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (FAHP) method is used for weighting the environmental performance criteria according to environmental priorities of decision-maker(s), while the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method is used for ranking on-site environmental performances of subcontractors using quantitative data related to the construction technology components. Thus, the model aims to provide an insight to decision-maker(s) about the environmental consequences of the construction process and to provide an opportunity to improve the overall environmental performance of construction sites.

Keywords: Construction process, construction technology, decision making, environmental performance, subcontractors.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1173

Authors: Tea Poklepović, Zdravka Aljinović, Mario Matković

Abstract:

Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) according to Markowitz states that investors form mean-variance efficient portfolios which maximizes their utility. Markowitz proposed the standard deviation as a simple measure for portfolio risk and the lower semi-variance as the only risk measure of interest to rational investors. This paper uses a third volatility estimator based on intraday data and compares three efficient frontiers on the Croatian Stock Market. The results show that range-based volatility estimator outperforms both mean-variance and lower semi-variance model.

Keywords: Variance, lower semi-variance, range-based volatility.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2579

Authors: Alshalaa A. Shleeg, Issmail M. Ellabib

Abstract:

Breast cancer is a major health burden worldwide being a major cause of death amongst women. In this paper, Fuzzy Inference Systems (FIS) are developed for the evaluation of breast cancer risk using Mamdani-type and Sugeno-type models. The paper outlines the basic difference between Mamdani-type FIS and Sugeno-type FIS. The results demonstrated the performance comparison of the two systems and the advantages of using Sugeno- type over Mamdani-type.

Keywords: Breast cancer diagnosis, Fuzzy Inference System (FIS), Fuzzy Logic, fuzzy intelligent technique.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 7176

Authors: S. Dabiran

Abstract:

Chest pain is one of the most prevalent complaints among adults that cause the people to attend to medical centers. The aim was to determine the prevalence and risk factors of chest pain among over 30 years old people in Tehran. In this cross-sectional study, 787 adults took part from Apr 2005 until Apr 2006. The sampling method was random cluster sampling and there were 25 clusters. In each cluster, interviews were performed with 32 over 30 years old, people lived in those houses. In cases with chest pain, extra questions asked. The prevalence of CP was 9% (71 cases). Of them 21 cases (6.5%) were in 41-60 year age ranges and the remainders were over 61 year old. 19 cases (26.8%) mentioned CP in resting state and all of the cases had exertion onset CP. The CP duration was 10 minutes or less in all of the cases and in most of them (84.5%), the location of pain mentioned left anterior part of chest, left anterior part of sternum and or left arm. There was positive history of myocardial infarction in 12 cases (17%). There was significant relation between CP and age, sex and between history of myocardial infarction and marital state of study people. Our results are similar to other studies- results in most parts, however it is necessary to perform supplementary tests and follow up studies to differentiate between cardiac and non-cardiac CP exactly.

Keywords: Chest pain, myocardial infarction, risk factor, prevalence

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1466

Authors: Emre Alptekin, Damla Yalçınyiğit, Gülfem Alptekin

Abstract:

In highly competitive environments, a growing number of companies must regularly launch new products speedily and successfully. A company-s success is based on the systematic, conscious product designing method which meets the market requirements and takes risks as well as resources into consideration. Research has found that developing and launching new products are inherently risky endeavors. Hence in this research, we aim at introducing a risk evaluation framework for the new product innovation process. Our framework is based on the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (FAHP) methodology. We have applied all the stages of the framework on the risk evaluation process of a pharmaceuticals company.

Keywords: Evaluation, risks, product innovation.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1496

Authors: Brennan Lodge

Abstract:

Amidst a complex regulatory landscape, Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) emerges as a transformative tool for Governance Risk and Compliance (GRC) officers. This paper details the application of RAG in synthesizing Large Language Models (LLMs) with external knowledge bases, offering GRC professionals an advanced means to adapt to rapid changes in compliance requirements. While the development for standalone LLMs is exciting, such models do have their downsides. LLMs cannot easily expand or revise their memory, and they cannot straightforwardly provide insight into their predictions, and may produce “hallucinations.” Leveraging a pre-trained seq2seq transformer and a dense vector index of domain-specific data, this approach integrates real-time data retrieval into the generative process, enabling gap analysis and the dynamic generation of compliance and risk management content. We delve into the mechanics of RAG, focusing on its dual structure that pairs parametric knowledge contained within the transformer model with non-parametric data extracted from an updatable corpus. This hybrid model enhances decision-making through context-rich insights, drawing from the most current and relevant information, thereby enabling GRC officers to maintain a proactive compliance stance. Our methodology aligns with the latest advances in neural network fine-tuning, providing a granular, token-level application of retrieved information to inform and generate compliance narratives. By employing RAG, we exhibit a scalable solution that can adapt to novel regulatory challenges and cybersecurity threats, offering GRC officers a robust, predictive tool that augments their expertise. The granular application of RAG’s dual structure not only improves compliance and risk management protocols but also informs the development of compliance narratives with pinpoint accuracy. It underscores AI’s emerging role in strategic risk mitigation and proactive policy formation, positioning GRC officers to anticipate and navigate the complexities of regulatory evolution confidently.

Keywords: Retrieval Augmented Generation, Governance Risk and Compliance, Cybersecurity, AI-driven Compliance, Risk Management, Generative AI.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 133

Authors: Mulugeta Shegaze, Mekitie Wondafrash, Alemayehu A. Alemayehu, Shikur Mohammed, Zewdu Shewangezaw, Mukerem Abdo, Gebresilasea Gendisha

Abstract:

Background: The 2004 World Health Assembly called for specific actions to halt the overweight and obesity epidemic that is currently penetrating urban populations in the developing world. Adolescents require particular attention due to their vulnerability to develop obesity and the fact that adolescent weight tracks strongly into adulthood. However, there is scarcity of information on the modifiable risk factors to be targeted for primary intervention among urban adolescents in Ethiopia. This study was aimed at determining the magnitude and risk factors of overweight and obesity among high school adolescents in Addis Ababa. Methods: An institution-based cross-sectional study was conducted in February and March 2014 on 456 randomly selected adolescents from 20 high schools in Addis Ababa city.  Demographic data and other risk factors of overweight and obesity were collected using self-administered structured questionnaire, whereas anthropometric measurements of weight and height were taken using calibrated equipment and standardized techniques. The WHO STEPS instrument for chronic disease risk was applied to assess dietary habit and physical activity. Overweight and obesity status was determined based on BMI-for-age percentiles of WHO 2007 reference population. Results: The prevalence rates of overweight, obesity, and overall overweight/ obesity among high school adolescents in Addis Ababa were 9.7% (95%CI = 6.9-12.4%), 4.2% (95%CI = 2.3-6.0%), and 13.9% (95%CI = 10.6-17.1%), respectively. Overweight/obesity prevalence was highest among female adolescents, in private schools, and in the higher wealth category. In multivariable regression model, being female [AOR(95%CI) = 5.4(2.5,12.1)], being from private school [AOR(95%CI) = 3.0(1.4,6.2)], having >3 regular meals [AOR(95%CI) = 4.0(1.3,13.0)], consumption of sweet foods [AOR(95%CI) = 5.0(2.4,10.3)] and spending >3 hours/day sitting [AOR(95%CI) = 3.5(1.7,7.2)] were found to increase overweight/ obesity risk, whereas high Total Physical Activity level [AOR(95%CI) = 0.21(0.08,0.57)] and better nutrition knowledge [AOR(95%CI) = 0.160.07,0.37)] were found protective. Conclusions: More than one in ten of the high school adolescents were affected by overweight/obesity with dietary habit and physical activity are important modifiable risk factors. Well-tailored nutrition education program targeting lifestyle change should be initiated with more emphasis to female adolescents and students in private schools.

Keywords: Adolescents, NCDs, overweight, obesity.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2599

Authors: N. Borjalilu, P. Rabiei, A. Enjoo

Abstract:

Flight Data Monitoring (FDM) program assists an operator in aviation industries to identify, quantify, assess and address operational safety risks, in order to improve safety of flight operations. FDM is a powerful tool for an aircraft operator integrated into the operator’s Safety Management System (SMS), allowing to detect, confirm, and assess safety issues and to check the effectiveness of corrective actions, associated with human errors. This article proposes a model for safety risk assessment level of flight data in a different aspect of event focus based on fuzzy set values. It permits to evaluate the operational safety level from the point of view of flight activities. The main advantages of this method are proposed qualitative safety analysis of flight data. This research applies the opinions of the aviation experts through a number of questionnaires Related to flight data in four categories of occurrence that can take place during an accident or an incident such as: Runway Excursions (RE), Controlled Flight Into Terrain (CFIT), Mid-Air Collision (MAC), Loss of Control in Flight (LOC-I). By weighting each one (by F-TOPSIS) and applying it to the number of risks of the event, the safety risk of each related events can be obtained.

Keywords: F-TOPSIS, fuzzy set, FDM, flight safety.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 889

Authors: I. Lucas, N. Schomberg, F-A. Couturier

Abstract:

Most empirical studies have analyzed how liquidity risks faced by individual institutions turn into systemic risk. Recent banking crisis has highlighted the importance of grasping and controlling the systemic risk, and the acceptance by Central Banks to ease their monetary policies for saving default or illiquid banks. This last point shows that banks would pay less attention to liquidity risk which, in turn, can become a new important channel of loss. The financial regulation focuses on the most important and “systemic” banks in the global network. However, to quantify the expected loss associated with liquidity risk, it is worth to analyze sensitivity to this channel for the various elements of the global bank network. A small bank is not considered as potentially systemic; however the interaction of small banks all together can become a systemic element. This paper analyzes the impact of medium and small banks interaction on a set of banks which is considered as the core of the network. The proposed method uses the structure of agent-based model in a two-class environment. In first class, the data from actual balance sheets of 22 large and systemic banks (such as BNP Paribas or Barclays) are collected. In second one, to model a network as closely as possible to actual interbank market, 578 fictitious banks smaller than the ones belonging to first class have been split into two groups of small and medium ones. All banks are active on the European interbank network and have deposit and market activity. A simulation of 12 three month periods representing a midterm time interval three years is projected. In each period, there is a set of behavioral descriptions: repayment of matured loans, liquidation of deposits, income from securities, collection of new deposits, new demands of credit, and securities sale. The last two actions are part of refunding process developed in this paper. To strengthen reliability of proposed model, random parameters dynamics are managed with stochastic equations as rates the variations of which are generated by Vasicek model. The Central Bank is considered as the lender of last resort which allows banks to borrow at REPO rate and some ejection conditions of banks from the system are introduced.

Liquidity crunch due to exogenous crisis is simulated in the first class and the loss impact on other bank classes is analyzed though aggregate values representing the aggregate of loans and/or the aggregate of borrowing between classes. It is mainly shown that the three groups of European interbank network do not have the same response, and that intermediate banks are the most sensitive to liquidity risk.

Keywords: Systemic Risk, Financial Contagion, Liquidity Risk, Interbank Market, Network Model.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2027

Authors: Kevin Fong-Rey Liu, Ken Yeh, Cheng-Wu Chen, Han-Hsi Liang

Abstract:

The sanitary sewerage connection rate becomes an important indicator of advanced cities. Following the construction of sanitary sewerages, the maintenance and management systems are required for keeping pipelines and facilities functioning well. These maintenance tasks often require sewer workers to enter the manholes and the pipelines, which are confined spaces short of natural ventilation and full of hazardous substances. Working in sewers could be easily exposed to a risk of adverse health effects. This paper proposes the use of Bayesian belief networks (BBN) as a higher level of noncarcinogenic health risk assessment of sewer workers. On the basis of the epidemiological studies, the actual hospital attendance records and expert experiences, the BBN is capable of capturing the probabilistic relationships between the hazardous substances in sewers and their adverse health effects, and accordingly inferring the morbidity and mortality of the adverse health effects. The provision of the morbidity and mortality rates of the related diseases is more informative and can alleviate the drawbacks of conventional methods.

Keywords: Bayesian belief networks, sanitary sewerage, healthrisk assessment, hazard quotient, target organ-specific hazard index.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1707

Authors: Udeme O. Ini, Edikan E. Akpanibah

Abstract:

This paper studies the optimal investment strategies for a plan member (PM) in a defined contribution (DC) pension scheme with transaction cost, taxes on invested funds and couple risky assets (stocks) under the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (O-U) process. The PM’s portfolio is assumed to consist of a risk-free asset and two risky assets where the two risky assets are driven by the O-U process. The Legendre transformation and dual theory is use to transform the resultant optimal control problem which is a nonlinear partial differential equation (PDE) into linear PDE and the resultant linear PDE is then solved for the explicit solutions of the optimal investment strategies for PM exhibiting constant absolute risk aversion (CARA) using change of variable technique. Furthermore, theoretical analysis is used to study the influences of some sensitive parameters on the optimal investment strategies with observations that the optimal investment strategies for the two risky assets increase with increase in the dividend and decreases with increase in tax on the invested funds, risk averse coefficient, initial fund size and the transaction cost.

Keywords: Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, portfolio management, Legendre transforms, CARA utility.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 483

Authors: Jaya Mahar Maligan, Teti Estiasih, Joni Kusnadi

Abstract:

Structured phospholipids from commercial soybean lecithin with oil enriched omega-3 fatty acid form by product of tuna canning is alternative procedure to provides the stability of omega-3 fatty acid structure and increase these bioactive function in metabolism. Best treatment condition was obtain in 18 hours acidolysis reaction with 30% enzyme concentration, which EPADHA incorporation level was 127,47 mg/g and incorporation percentage of EPA-DHA was 51,04% at phospholipids structure. This structured phospolipids could reduce atherosclerosis risk in male Sprague dawley rat. Provision of structured phospholipids has significant effect (α = 0.05) on changes in lipid profile, intima-media thickness of aorta rats (male Sprague dawley) fed atherogenic diet. Structured phospholipids intake can lower total cholesterol 78.36 mg/dL, total triglycerides 94,57 mg/dL, LDL levels 87.08 mg/dL and increased HDL level as much as 12,64 mg/dL in 10 weeks cares. Structured phospholipids intake also can prevent the thickening of the intima-media layer of the aorta.

Keywords: Structured phospholipids, commercial soybean lecithin, omega-3 fatty acid, atherosclerosis risk.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2564

Authors: Ammar S. M. Moohialdin, Bambang T. Suhariadi, Mohsin Siddiqui

Abstract:

This paper addresses the application of physiological status monitoring (PSM) for assessing the impact of harsh weather conditions on sports activities in universities in Saudi Arabia. Real sports measurement was conducted during sports activities such that the physiological status (HR and BR) of five students were continuously monitored by using Zephyr BioHarness^TM 3.0 sensors in order to identify the physiological bonds and zones. These bonds and zones were employed as indicators of the associated physiological risks of the performed sports activities. Furthermore, a short yes/no questionnaire was applied to collect information on participants’ health conditions and opinions of the applied PSM sensors. The results show the absence of a warning system as a protective aid for the hazardous levels of extremely hot and humid weather conditions that may cause dangerous and fatal circumstances. The applied formulas for estimating maximum HR provides accurate estimations for Maximum Heart Rate (HR_max). The physiological results reveal that the performed activities by the participants are considered the highest category (90–100%) in terms of activity intensity. This category is associated with higher HR, BR and physiological risks including losing the ability to control human body behaviors. Therefore, there is a need for immediate intervention actions to reduce the intensity of the performed activities to safer zones. The outcomes of this study assist the safety improvement of sports activities inside universities and athletes performing their sports activities. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper to represent a special case of the application of PSM technology for assessing sports activities in universities considering the impacts of harsh weather conditions on students’ health and safety.

Keywords: PSM, heart rate, HR, breathing rate, BR.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1057

Authors: Dejana Bouillet, Vlatka Domović

Abstract:

Both policymakers and researchers recognize that participating in early childhood education and care (ECEC) is useful for all children, especially for those who are exposed to the high risk of social exclusion. Social exclusion of children is understood as a multidimensional construct including economic, social, cultural, health, and other aspects of disadvantage and deprivation, which individually or combined can have an unfavorable effect on the current life and development of a child, as well as on the child’s development and on disadvantaged life chances in adult life. ECEC institutions should be able to promote educational approaches that portray developmental, cultural, language, and other diversity amongst children. However, little is known about the ways in which Croatian ECEC institutions recognize and respect the diversity of children and their families and how they respond to their educational needs. That is why this paper is dedicated to the analysis of the capacities of ECEC professionals to respond to the demands of educational needs of this very diverse group of children and their families. The results obtained in the frame of the project “Models of response to educational needs of children at risk of social exclusion in ECEC institutions,” funded by the Croatian Science Foundation, will be presented. The research methodology arises from explanations of educational processes and risks of social exclusion as a complex and heterogeneous phenomenon. The preliminary results of the qualitative data analysis of educational practices regarding capacities to identify and appropriately respond to the requirements of children at risk of social exclusion will be presented. The data have been collected by interviewing educational staff in 10 Croatian ECEC institutions (n = 10). The questions in the interviews were related to various aspects of inclusive institutional policy, culture, and practices. According to the analysis, it is possible to conclude that Croatian ECEC professionals are still faced with great challenges in the process of implementation of inclusive policies, culture, and practices. There are several baselines of this conclusion. The interviewed educational professionals are not familiar enough with the whole complexity and diversity of needs of children at risk of social exclusion, and the ECEC institutions do not have enough resources to provide all interventions that these children and their families need.

Keywords: children at risk of social exclusion, ECEC professionals, inclusive policies, culture and practices, interpretative phenomenological analysis

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 631

Authors: Eakarat Boonreang

Abstract:

The past two decades, Thailand faced the natural disasters, for instance, Gay typhoon in 1989, tsunami in 2004, and huge flood in 2011. The disaster management in Thailand was improved both structure and mechanism for cope with the natural disaster since 2007. However, the natural disaster management in Thailand has various problems, for examples, cooperation between related an organizations have not unity, inadequate resources, the natural disaster management of public sectors not proactive, people has not awareness the risk of the natural disaster, and communities did not participate in the natural disaster management. Objective of this study is to find the methods for capacity building in the natural disaster management of Thailand. The concept and information about the capacity building and the natural disaster management of Thailand were reviewed and analyzed by classifying and organizing data. The result found that the methods for capacity building in the natural disaster management of Thailand should be consist of 1) link operation and information in the natural disaster management between nation, province, local and community levels, 2) enhance competency and resources of public sectors which relate to the natural disaster management, 3) establish proactive natural disaster management both planning and implementation, 4) decentralize the natural disaster management to local government organizations, 5) construct public awareness in the natural disaster management to community, 6) support Community Based Disaster Risk Management (CBDRM) seriously, and 7) emphasis on participation in the natural disaster management of all stakeholders.

Keywords: Capacity Building, Community Based Disaster Risk Management, Natural Disaster Management, Thailand.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3248

Authors: Nabhan Hamadneh, Michael Dixon, Peter Cole, David Murray

Abstract:

This work presents the Risk Threshold RED (RTRED) congestion control strategy for TCP networks. In addition to the maximum and minimum thresholds in existing RED-based strategies, we add a third dropping level. This new dropping level is the risk threshold which works with the actual and average queue sizes to detect the immediate congestion in gateways. Congestion reaction by RTRED is on time. The reaction to congestion is neither too early, to avoid unfair packet losses, nor too late to avoid packet dropping from time-outs. We compared our novel strategy with RED and ARED strategies for TCP congestion handling using a NS-2 simulation script. We found that the RTRED strategy outperformed RED and ARED.

Keywords: AQM, congestion control, RED, TCP.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1494

Authors: Reza Gharehkhani

Abstract:

Sedimentation in reservoirs lowers the quality of consumed water, reduce the volume of reservoir, lowers the controllable amount of flood, increases the risk of water overflow during possible floods and the risk of reversal and reduction of dam's useful life. So in all stages of dam establishment such as cognitive studies, phase-1 studies of design, control, construction and maintenance, the problem of sedimentation in reservoir should be considered. What engineers need to do is examine and develop the methods to keep effective capacity of a reservoir, however engineers should also consider the influences of the methods on the flood disaster, functions of water use facilities and environmental issues.This article first examines the sedimentation in reservoirs and shows how to control it and then discusses the studies about the sedimens in Siazakh Dam.

Keywords: Sedimentation, Reservoir, Sediment Control, Dam

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2655

Authors: Julinda Keçi

Abstract:

In many countries, governments have been promoting the involvement of private sector entities to enter into long-term agreements for the development and delivery of large infrastructure projects, with a focus on overcoming the limitations upon public fund of the traditional approach. The involvement of private sector through public private partnerships (PPP) brings in new capital investments, value for money and additional risks to handle. Worldwide research studies have shown that an objective, systematic, reliable and useroriented risk assessment process and an optimal allocation mechanism among different stakeholders is crucial to the successful completion. In this framework, this paper, which is the first stage of a research study, aims to identify the main risks for the delivery of PPP projects. A review of cross-countries research projects and case studies was performed to map the key risks affecting PPP infrastructure delivery. The matrix of mapping offers a summary of the frequency of factors, clustered in eleven categories: construction, design, economic, legal, market, natural, operation, political, project finance, project selection and relationship. Results will highlight the most critical risk factors, and will hopefully assist the project managers in directing the managerial attention in the further stages of risk allocation.

Keywords: Construction, infrastructure, public private partnerships, risks.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3525

Authors: Philip Feig, Klaus Gschwendtner, Julian Schatz, Frank Diermeyer

Abstract:

Projects of accident research analysis are mostly focused on accidents involving personal damage. Property damage only has a high frequency of occurrence combined with high economic impact. This paper describes main influencing parameters for the extent of damage and presents a repair cost model. For a prospective evaluation method of the monetary effect of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS), it is necessary to be aware of and quantify all influencing parameters. Furthermore, this method allows the evaluation of vehicle concepts in combination with an ADAS at an early point in time of the product development process. In combination with a property damage database and the introduced repair cost model relevant test scenarios for specific vehicle configurations and their individual property damage risk may be determined. Currently, equipment rates of ADAS are low and a purchase incentive for customers would be beneficial. The next ADAS generation will prevent property damage to a large extent or at least reduce damage severity. Both effects may be a purchasing incentive for the customer and furthermore contribute to increased traffic safety.

Keywords: Property damage analysis, effectiveness, ADAS, damage risk, accident research, accident scenarios.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1388

Authors: Tanvir Ahmed, Thanh N. Long, Phan T. Huong, Donald E. Stewart

Abstract:

This paper presents views on condom use and the contexts of safe and unsafe sexual practices with different sexual partners and their relationships among Injecting Drug Users (IDUs) in Hai Phong, Vietnam. Fifteen IDUs participated and two local interviewers conducted qualitative semi-structured face-to-face interviews in September-October, 2012 in Vietnamese language. Data were analyzed thematically. Non-protective condom attitudes include negotiate or convince Female Sex Workers (FSW); not realizing risk, importance or necessity; partner doesn’t like, and having extra money/drug from clients. On the other hand, self-awareness, family-consciousness, suspicion of STI presence, fear of getting HIV, and client negotiation sometimes resulted in a safe-sex practice. A thematic diagram was developed to present the relationship (strong/weak) between condom attitude and sexual practice (safe/unsafe) by partner types. The experiences and views reflected in the qualitative information emphasize the heightened need for safe-sex education especially among young IDUs (male/female) highlighting sexual transmission risk.

Keywords: AIDS, HIV, injecting drug user, risk behaviors, Vietnam.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1869

Authors: Hossam Shalabi, George Hadjisophocleous

Abstract:

The Canadian Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) use some portions of NUREG/CR-6850 in carrying out Fire Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). An assessment for the applicability of NUREG/CR-6850 to CANDU reactors was performed and a CANDU Fire PRA was introduced. There are 19 operating CANDU reactors in Canada at five sites (Bruce A, Bruce B, Darlington, Pickering and Point Lepreau). A fire load density survey was done for all Fire Safe Shutdown Analysis (FSSA) fire zones in all CANDU sites in Canada. National Fire Protection Association (NFPA) Standard 557 proposes that a fire load survey must be conducted by either the weighing method or the inventory method or a combination of both. The combination method results in the most accurate values for fire loads. An updated CANDU Fire PRA model is demonstrated in this paper that includes the fuel survey in all Canadian CANDU stations. A qualitative screening step for the CANDU fire PRA is illustrated in this paper to include any fire events that can damage any part of the emergency power supply in addition to FSSA cables.

Keywords: Fire safety, CANDU, nuclear, fuel densities, FDS, qualitative analysis, fire probabilistic risk assessment.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 742

Authors: Irisa Murniece, Daina Karklina, Ruta Galoburda

Abstract:

From food consumption surveys has been found that potato consumption comparing to other European countries is one of the highest. Hence acrylamide (AA) intake coming from fried potatoes in population might be high as well. The aim of the research was to determine acrylamide content and estimate intake of acrylamide from roasted potatoes bred and cultivated in Latvia. Five common Latvian potato varieties were selected: Lenora, Brasla, Imanta, Zile, and Madara. A two-year research was conducted during two periods: just after harvesting and after six months of storage. Time and temperature (210 ± 5°C) was recorded during frying. AA was extracted from potatoes by solid phase extraction and AA content was determined by LC-MS/MS. estimated intake of acrylamide ranges from 0.012 to 0.496μgkg-1 BW per day.

Keywords: potato, roasting, variety, acrylamide, Latvia, risk assessment.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2063

Authors: H. Zarei, M. H. Fazel Zarandi, M. Karbasian

Abstract:

A Decision Support System/Expert System for stock portfolio selection presented where at first step, both technical and fundamental data used to estimate technical and fundamental return and risk (1st phase); Then, the estimated values are aggregated with the investor preferences (2nd phase) to produce convenient stock portfolio. In the 1st phase, there are two expert systems, each of which is responsible for technical or fundamental estimation. In the technical expert system, for each stock, twenty seven candidates are identified and with using rough sets-based clustering method (RC) the effective variables have been selected. Next, for each stock two fuzzy rulebases are developed with fuzzy C-Mean method and Takai-Sugeno- Kang (TSK) approach; one for return estimation and the other for risk. Thereafter, the parameters of the rule-bases are tuned with backpropagation method. In parallel, for fundamental expert systems, fuzzy rule-bases have been identified in the form of “IF-THEN" rules through brainstorming with the stock market experts and the input data have been derived from financial statements; as a result two fuzzy rule-bases have been generated for all the stocks, one for return and the other for risk. In the 2nd phase, user preferences represented by four criteria and are obtained by questionnaire. Using an expert system, four estimated values of return and risk have been aggregated with the respective values of user preference. At last, a fuzzy rule base having four rules, treats these values and produce a ranking score for each stock which will lead to a satisfactory portfolio for the user. The stocks of six manufacturing companies and the period of 2003-2006 selected for data gathering.

Keywords: Stock Portfolio Selection, Fuzzy Rule-Base ExpertSystems, Financial Decision Support Systems, Technical Analysis, Fundamental Analysis.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1842

Authors: V. Thulasi Bai, Srivatsa S. K.

Abstract:

Deaths from cardiovascular diseases have decreased substantially over the past two decades, largely as a result of advances in acute care and cardiac surgery. These developments have produced a growing population of patients who have survived a myocardial infarction. These patients need to be continuously monitored so that the initiation of treatment can be given within the crucial golden hour. The available conventional methods of monitoring mostly perform offline analysis and restrict the mobility of these patients within a hospital or room. Hence the aim of this paper is to design a Portable Cardiac Telemedicine System to aid the patients to regain their independence and return to an active work schedule, there by improving the psychological well being. The portable telemedicine system consists of a Wearable ECG Transmitter (WET) and a slightly modified mobile phone, which has an inbuilt ECG analyzer. The WET is placed on the body of the patient that continuously acquires the ECG signals from the high-risk cardiac patients who can move around anywhere. This WET transmits the ECG to the patient-s Bluetooth enabled mobile phone using blue tooth technology. The ECG analyzer inbuilt in the mobile phone continuously analyzes the heartbeats derived from the received ECG signals. In case of any panic condition, the mobile phone alerts the patients care taker by an SMS and initiates the transmission of a sample ECG signal to the doctor, via the mobile network.

Keywords: WET, ECG analyzer, Bluetooth, mobilecellular network, high risk cardiac patients.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2106

Authors: M.N. Khan, T. Rehman, Z Iqbal, M.S Sajid, M Ahmad, M Riaz

Abstract:

A cross-sectional study was carried out to determine the prevalence, species characterization and associated risk factors with Eimeria (E.) in sheep of district Toba Tek Singh from April, 2009 to March, 2010. Of the total 486 faecal samples examined for Eimeria, 209 (43%) were found infected with five species of Eimeria. Amongst the identified species of Eimeria, E. ovinoidalis was the commonest one (48.32%), followed in order by E. ahsata, E. intricata, E. parva and E. faurei with prevalence of 45.45, 28.71, 24.40 and 19.14 percent respectively. Peak prevalence was observed in August. Wet season (rainy and post-rainy) was found to be favourable for Eimeria infection. Lambs had significantly higher prevalence (P < 0.05) of Eimeria than adults. Similarly higher prevalence of Eimeria was observed in female as compared to male. Among management and husbandry practices; watering system, housing system, floor type and herd size strongly influenced the prevalence of Eimeria. Coccidiosis was more prevalent in closed housing system, non-cemented floor type, pond watered animals and larger herds (P < 0.05) as compared to open housing system, partially cemented floor type, tap watered animals and smaller herds respectively. Feeding system, breed and body condition of animals were not found as risk factors (P>0.05) influencing prevalence of Eimeria.

Keywords: Eimeria, Pakistan prevalence, sheep.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2580

Authors: Mustafa M. Donma, Orkide Donma

Abstract:

Obesity and weight gain are associated with increased risk of developing cardiovascular diseases and the progression of liver fibrosis. Aspartate transaminase–to-platelet count ratio index (APRI) and fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) were primarily considered as the formulas capable of differentiating hepatitis from cirrhosis. However, to the best of our knowledge, their status in children is not clear. The aim of this study is to determine APRI and FIB-4 status in obese (OB) children and compare them with values found in children with normal body mass index (N-BMI). A total of 68 children examined in the outpatient clinics of the Pediatrics Department in Tekirdag Namik Kemal University Medical Faculty were included in the study. Two groups were constituted. In the first group, 35 children with N-BMI, whose age- and sex-dependent BMI indices vary between 15 and 85 percentiles, were evaluated. The second group comprised 33 OB children whose BMI percentile values were between 95 and 99. Anthropometric measurements and routine biochemical tests were performed. Using these parameters, values for the related indices, BMI, APRI, and FIB-4, were calculated. Appropriate statistical tests were used for the evaluation of the study data. The statistical significance degree was accepted as p < 0.05. In the OB group, values found for APRI and FIB-4 were higher than those calculated for the N-BMI group. However, there was no statistically significant difference between the N-BMI and OB groups in terms of APRI and FIB-4. A similar pattern was detected for triglyceride (TRG) values. The correlation coefficient and degree of significance between APRI and FIB-4 were r = 0.336 and p = 0.065 in the N-BMI group. On the other hand, they were r = 0.707 and p = 0.001 in the OB group. Associations of these two indices with TRG have shown that this parameter was strongly correlated (p < 0.001) both with APRI and FIB-4 in the OB group, whereas no correlation was calculated in children with N-BMI. TRG are associated with an increased risk of fatty liver, which can progress to severe clinical problems such as steatohepatitis, which can lead to liver fibrosis. TRG are also independent risk factors for cardiovascular disease. In conclusion, the lack of correlation between TRG and APRI as well as FIB-4 in children with N-BMI, along with the detection of strong correlations of TRG with these indices in OB children, was the indicator of the possible onset of the tendency towards the development of fatty liver in OB children. This finding also pointed out the potential risk for cardiovascular pathologies in OB children. The nature of the difference between APRI vs. FIB-4 correlations in N-BMI and OB groups (no correlation vs. high correlation), respectively, may be the indicator of the importance of involving age and alanine transaminase parameters in addition to AST and PLT in the formula designed for FIB-4.

Keywords: APRI, FIB-4, obesity, triglycerides.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 219

Authors: Hekmatpanah, M.

Abstract:

Since the beginning of human history, human activities have caused many changes in the environment. Today, a particular attention should be paid to gaining knowledge about water quality of wetlands which are pristine natural environments rich in genetic reserves. If qualitative conditions of industrial areas (in terms of both physicochemical and biological conditions) are not addressed properly, they could cause disruption in natural ecosystems, especially in rivers. With regards to the quality of water resources, determination of pollutant sources plays a pivotal role in engineering projects as well as designing water quality control systems. Thus, using different methods such as flow duration curves, dischargepollution load model and frequency analysis by HYFA software package, risk of various industrial pollutants in international and ecologically important Gavkhoni wetland is analyzed. In this study, a station located at Varzaneh City is used as the last station on Zayanderud River, from where the river water is discharged into the wetland. Results showed that elements- concentrations often exceeded the allowed level and river water can endanger regional ecosystem. In addition, if the river discharge is managed on Q25 basis, this basis can lower concentrations of elements, keeping them within the normal level.

Keywords: Pollutants Risk, Industry, Flow Discharge, Management, Gavkhoni Wetland

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1247

Authors: Bernard Kumi-Boateng, Issaka Yakubu

Abstract:

Forest fire, which is, an uncontrolled fire occurring in nature has become a major concern for the Forestry Commission of Ghana (FCG). The forest fires in Ghana usually result in massive destruction and take a long time for the firefighting crews to gain control over the situation. In order to assess the effect of forest fire at local scale, it is important to consider the role fire plays in vegetation composition, biodiversity, soil erosion, and the hydrological cycle. The occurrence, frequency and behaviour of forest fires vary over time and space, primarily as a result of the complicated influences of changes in land use, vegetation composition, fire suppression efforts, and other indigenous factors. One of the forest zones in Ghana with a high level of vegetation stress is the Goaso forest area. The area has experienced changes in its traditional land use such as hunting, charcoal production, inefficient logging practices and rural abandonment patterns. These factors which were identified as major causes of forest fire, have recently modified the incidence of fire in the Goaso area. In spite of the incidence of forest fires in the Goaso forest area, most of the forest services do not provide a cartographic representation of the burned areas. This has resulted in significant amount of information being required by the firefighting unit of the FCG to understand fire risk factors and its spatial effects. This study uses Remote Sensing and Geographic Information System techniques to develop a fire risk hazard model using the Goaso Forest Area (GFA) as a case study. From the results of the study, natural forest, agricultural lands and plantation cover types were identified as the major fuel contributing loads. However, water bodies, roads and settlements were identified as minor fuel contributing loads. Based on the major and minor fuel contributing loads, a forest fire risk hazard model with a reasonable accuracy has been developed for the GFA to assist decision making.

Keywords: Forest risk, GIS, remote sensing, Goaso.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2004

Authors: Mohamed A. Hammad, Dzul Azri Mohamed Noor, Syed Azhar Syed Sulaiman, Ahmed A. Khamis, Abeer Kharshid, Nor Azizah Aziz

Abstract:

The effect of statins dose intensity (SDI) on glycemic control in patients with existing diabetes is unclear. Also, there are many contradictory findings were reported in the literature; thus, it is limiting the possibility to draw conclusions. This project was designed to compare the effect of SDI on glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c%) control in outpatients with Type 2 diabetes in the endocrine clinic at Hospital Pulau Pinang, Malaysia, between July 2015 and August 2016. A prospective cohort study was conducted, where records of 345 patients with Type 2 diabetes (Moderate-SDI group 289 patients and high-SDI cohort 56 patients) were reviewed to identify demographics and laboratory tests. The target of glycemic control (HbA1c < 7% for patient < 65 years, and < 8% for patient ≥ 65 years) was estimated, and the results were presented as descriptive statistics. From 289 moderate-SDI cohorts with a mean age of 57.3 ± 12.4 years, only 86 (29.8%) cases were shown to have controlled glycemia, while there were 203 (70.2%) cases with uncontrolled glycemia with confidence interval (CI) of 95% (6.2–10.8). On the other hand, the high-SDI group of 56 patients with Type 2 diabetes with a mean age 57.7±12.4 years is distributed among 11 (19.6%) patients with controlled diabetes, and 45 (80.4%) of them had uncontrolled glycemia, CI: 95% (7.1–11.9). The study has demonstrated that the relative risk (RR) of uncontrolled glycemia in patients with Type 2 diabetes that used high-SDI is 1.15, and the excessive relative risk (ERR) is 15%. The absolute risk (AR) is 10.2%, and the number needed to harm (NNH) is 10. Outpatients with Type 2 diabetes who use high-SDI of statin have a higher risk of uncontrolled glycemia than outpatients who had been treated with a moderate-SDI.

Keywords: Cohort study, diabetes control, dose intensity, HbA1c, Malaysia, statin, Type 2 diabetes mellitus, uncontrolled glycemia.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1464