Search results for: statistical models.
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 3549

Search results for: statistical models.

369 Controlling Water Temperature during the Electrocoagulation Process Using an Innovative Flow Column-Electrocoagulation Reactor

Authors: Khalid S. Hashim, Andy Shaw, Rafid Alkhaddar, Montserrat Ortoneda Pedrola

Abstract:

A flow column has been innovatively used in the design of a new electrocoagulation reactor (ECR1) that will reduce the temperature of water being treated; where the flow columns work as a radiator for the water being treated. In order to investigate the performance of ECR1 and compare it to that of traditional reactors; 600 mL water samples with an initial temperature of 350C were pumped continuously through these reactors for 30 min at current density of 1 mA/cm2. The temperature of water being treated was measured at 5 minutes intervals over a 30 minutes period using a thermometer. Additional experiments were commenced to investigate the effects of initial temperature (15-350C), water conductivity (0.15 – 1.2 S) and current density (0.5 -3 mA/cm2) on the performance of ECR1. The results obtained demonstrated that the ECR1, at a current density of 1 mA/cm2 and continuous flow model, reduced water temperature from 350C to the vicinity of 280C during the first 15 minutes and kept the same level till the end of the treatment time. While, the temperature increased from 28.1 to 29.80C and from 29.8 to 31.90C in the batch and the traditional continuous flow models respectively. In term of initial temperature, ECR1 maintained the temperature of water being treated within the range of 22 to 280C without the need for external cooling system even when the initial temperatures varied over a wide range (15 to 350C). The influent water conductivity was found to be a significant variable that affect the temperature. The desirable value of water conductivity is 0.6 S. However, it was found that the water temperature increased rapidly with a higher current density.

Keywords: Water temperature, flow column, electrocoagulation.

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368 MHD Boundary Layer Flow of a Nanofluid Past a Wedge Shaped Wick in Heat Pipe

Authors: Ziya Uddin

Abstract:

This paper deals with the theoretical and numerical investigation of magneto hydrodynamic boundary layer flow of a nanofluid past a wedge shaped wick in heat pipe used for the cooling of electronic components and different type of machines. To incorporate the effect of nanoparticle diameter, concentration of nanoparticles in the pure fluid, nanothermal layer formed around the nanoparticle and Brownian motion of nanoparticles etc., appropriate models are used for the effective thermal and physical properties of nanofluids. To model the rotation of nanoparticles inside the base fluid, microfluidics theory is used. In this investigation ethylene glycol (EG) based nanofluids, are taken into account. The non-linear equations governing the flow and heat transfer are solved by using a very effective particle swarm optimization technique along with Runge-Kutta method. The values of heat transfer coefficient are found for different parameters involved in the formulation viz. nanoparticle concentration, nanoparticle size, magnetic field and wedge angle etc. It is found that, the wedge angle, presence of magnetic field, nanoparticle size and nanoparticle concentration etc. have prominent effects on fluid flow and heat transfer characteristics for the considered configuration.

Keywords: Heat transfer, Heat pipe, numerical modeling, nanofluid applications, particle swarm optimization, wedge shaped wick.

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367 T Cell Immunity Profile in Pediatric Obesity and Asthma

Authors: Mustafa M. Donma, Erkut Karasu, Burcu Ozdilek, Burhan Turgut, Birol Topcu, Burcin Nalbantoglu, Orkide Donma

Abstract:

The mechanisms underlying the association between obesity and asthma may be related to a decreased immunological tolerance induced by a defective function of regulatory T cells (Tregs). The aim of this study is to establish the potential link between these diseases and CD4+, CD25+ FoxP3+ Tregs as well as T helper cells (Ths) in children. This is a prospective case control study. Obese (n:40), asthmatic (n:40), asthmatic obese (n:40) and healthy children (n:40), who don't have any acute or chronic diseases, were included in this study. Obese children were evaluated according to WHO criteria. Asthmatic patients were chosen based on GINA criteria. Parents were asked to fill up the questionnaire. Informed consent forms were taken. Blood samples were marked with CD4+, CD25+ and FoxP3+ in order to determine Tregs and Ths by flow cytometric method. Statistical analyses were performed. p≤0.05 was chosen as meaningful threshold. Tregs exhibiting anti-inflammatory nature were significantly lower in obese (0,16%; p≤0,001), asthmatic (0,25%; p≤0,01) and asthmatic obese (0,29%; p≤0,05) groups than the control group (0,38%). Ths were counted higher in asthma group than the control (p≤0,01) and obese (p≤0,001) groups. T cell immunity plays important roles in obesity and asthma pathogeneses. Decreased numbers of Tregs found in obese, asthmatic and asthmatic obese children may help to elucidate some questions in pathophysiology of these diseases. For HOMA-IR levels, any significant difference was not noted between control and obese groups, but statistically higher values were found for obese asthmatics. The values obtained in all groups were found to be below the critical cut off points. This finding has made the statistically significant difference observed between Tregs of obese, asthmatic, obese asthmatic and control groups much more valuable. These findings will be useful in diagnosis and treatment of these disorders and future studies are needed. The production and propagation of Tregs may be promising in alternative asthma and obesity treatments.

Keywords: Asthma, flow cytometry, pediatric obesity, T cells.

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366 Efficacy of Gamma Radiation on the Productivity of Bactrocera oleae Gmelin (Diptera: Tephritidae)

Authors: Mehrdad Ahmadi, Mohamad Babaie, Shiva Osouli, Bahareh Salehi, Nadia Kalantaraian

Abstract:

The olive fruit fly, Bactrocera oleae Gmelin (Diptera: Tephritidae), is one of the most serious pests in olive orchards in growing province in Iran. The female lay eggs in green olive fruit and larvae hatch inside the fruit, where they feed upon the fruit matters. One of the main ecologically friendly and species-specific systems of pest control is the sterile insect technique (SIT) which is based on the release of large numbers of sterilized insects. The objective of our work was to develop a SIT against B. oleae by using of gamma radiation for the laboratory and field trial in Iran. Oviposition of female mated by irradiated males is one of the main parameters to determine achievement of SIT. To conclude the sterile dose, pupae were placed under 0 to 160 Gy of gamma radiation. The main factor in SIT is the productivity of females which are mated by irradiated males. The emerged adults from irradiated pupae were mated with untreated adults of the same age by confining them inside the transparent cages. The fecundity of the irradiated males mated with non-irradiated females was decreased with the increasing radiation dose level. It was observed that the number of eggs and also the percentage of the egg hatching was significantly (P < 0.05) affected in either IM x NF crosses compared with NM x NF crosses in F1 generation at all doses. Also, the statistical analysis showed a significant difference (P < 0.05) in the mean number of eggs laid between irradiated and non-irradiated females crossed with irradiated males, which suggests that the males were susceptible to gamma radiation. The egg hatching percentage declined markedly with the increase of the radiation dose of the treated males in mating trials which demonstrated that egg hatch rate was dose dependent. Our results specified that gamma radiation affects the longevity of irradiated B. oleae larvae (established from irradiated pupae) and significantly increased their larval duration. Results show the gamma radiation, and SIT can be used successfully against olive fruit flies.

Keywords: Fertility, olive fruit fly, radiation, SIT.

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365 Power Ultrasound Application on Convective Drying of Banana (Musa paradisiaca), Mango (Mangifera indica L.) and Guava (Psidium guajava L.)

Authors: Erika K. Méndez, Carlos E. Orrego, Diana L. Manrique, Juan D. Gonzalez, Doménica Vallejo

Abstract:

High moisture content in fruits generates post-harvest problems such as mechanical, biochemical, microbial and physical losses. Dehydration, which is based on the reduction of water activity of the fruit, is a common option for overcoming such losses. However, regular hot air drying could affect negatively the quality properties of the fruit due to the long residence time at high temperature. Power ultrasound (US) application during the convective drying has been used as a novel method able to enhance drying rate and, consequently, to decrease drying time. In the present study, a new approach was tested to evaluate the effect of US on the drying time, the final antioxidant activity (AA) and the total polyphenol content (TPC) of banana slices (BS), mango slices (MS) and guava slices (GS). There were also studied the drying kinetics with nine different models from which water effective diffusivities (Deff) (with or without shrinkage corrections) were calculated. Compared with the corresponding control tests, US assisted drying for fruit slices showed reductions in drying time between 16.23 and 30.19%, 11.34 and 32.73%, and 19.25 and 47.51% for the MS, BS and GS respectively. Considering shrinkage effects, Deff calculated values ranged from 1.67*10-10 to 3.18*10-10 m2/s, 3.96*10-10 and 5.57*10-10 m2/s and 4.61*10-10 to 8.16*10-10 m2/s for the BS, MS and GS samples respectively. Reductions of TPC and AA (as DPPH) were observed compared with the original content in fresh fruit data in all kinds of drying assays.

Keywords: Banana, drying, effective diffusivity, guava, mango, ultrasound.

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364 Movie Genre Preference Prediction Using Machine Learning for Customer-Based Information

Authors: Haifeng Wang, Haili Zhang

Abstract:

Most movie recommendation systems have been developed for customers to find items of interest. This work introduces a predictive model usable by small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) who are in need of a data-based and analytical approach to stock proper movies for local audiences and retain more customers. We used classification models to extract features from thousands of customers’ demographic, behavioral and social information to predict their movie genre preference. In the implementation, a Gaussian kernel support vector machine (SVM) classification model and a logistic regression model were established to extract features from sample data and their test error-in-sample were compared. Comparison of error-out-sample was also made under different Vapnik–Chervonenkis (VC) dimensions in the machine learning algorithm to find and prevent overfitting. Gaussian kernel SVM prediction model can correctly predict movie genre preferences in 85% of positive cases. The accuracy of the algorithm increased to 93% with a smaller VC dimension and less overfitting. These findings advance our understanding of how to use machine learning approach to predict customers’ preferences with a small data set and design prediction tools for these enterprises.

Keywords: Computational social science, movie preference, machine learning, SVM.

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363 An Investigation of Final Tests of Translation as Practiced in Iranian Undergraduate English Translation Program

Authors: Hossein Heidari Tabrizi, Azizeh Chalak

Abstract:

The present study examined how translation teachers develop final tests as measures for checking on the quality of students’ academic translation in Iranian context. To achieve this goal, thirty experienced male and female translation teachers from the four types of the universities offering the program were invited to an in-depth 30-minute one-session semi-structured interview. The responses provided showed how much discrepancy exists among the Iranian translation teachers (as developers of final translation tests), who are least informed with the current translation evaluation methods. It was also revealed that the criteria they use for developing such tests and scoring student translations are not theory-driven but are highly subjective, mainly based on their personal experience and intuition. Hence, the quality and accountability of such tests are under serious question. The results also confirmed that the dominant method commonly and currently practiced is the purely essay-type format. To remedy the situation, some suggestions are in order. As part of the solution, to improve the reliability and validity of such tests, the present summative, product-oriented evaluation should be accompanied with some formative, process-oriented methods of evaluation. Training the teachers and helping them get acquainted with modern principles of translation evaluation as well as the existing models, and rating scales does improve the quality of academic translation evaluation.

Keywords: Iranian universities, students’ academic translations, translation final tests, undergraduate translation programs.

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362 Clinical Comparative Study Comparing Efficacy of Intrathecal Fentanyl and Magnesium as an Adjuvant to Hyperbaric Bupivacaine in Mild Pre-Eclamptic Patients Undergoing Caesarean Section

Authors: Sanchita B. Sarma, M. P. Nath

Abstract:

Adequate analgesia following caesarean section decreases morbidity, hastens ambulation, improves patient outcome and facilitates care of the newborn. Intrathecal magnesium, an NMDA antagonist, has been shown to prolong analgesia without significant side effects in healthy parturients. The aim of this study was to evaluate the onset and duration of sensory and motor block, hemodynamic effect, postoperative analgesia, and adverse effects of magnesium or fentanyl given intrathecally with hyperbaric 0.5% bupivacaine in patients with mild preeclampsia undergoing caesarean section. Sixty women with mild preeclampsia undergoing elective caesarean section were included in a prospective, double blind, controlled trial. Patients were randomly assigned to receive spinal anesthesia with 2 mL 0.5% hyperbaric bupivacaine with 12.5 μg fentanyl (group F) or 0.1 ml of 50% magnesium sulphate (50 mg) (group M) with 0.15ml preservative free distilled water. Onset, duration and recovery of sensory and motor block, time to maximum sensory block, duration of spinal anaesthesia and postoperative analgesic requirements were studied. Statistical comparison was carried out using the Chi-square or Fisher’s exact tests and Independent Student’s t-test where appropriate. The onset of both sensory and motor block was slower in the magnesium group. The duration of spinal anaesthesia (246 vs. 284) and motor block (186.3 vs. 210) were significantly longer in the magnesium group. Total analgesic top up requirement was less in group M. Hemodynamic parameters were similar in both the groups. Intrathecal magnesium caused minimal side effects. Since Fentanyl and other opioid congeners are not available throughout the country easily, magnesium with its easy availability and less side effect profile can be a cost effective alternative to fentanyl in managing pregnancy induced hypertension (PIH) patients given along with Bupivacaine intrathecally in caesarean section.

Keywords: Analgesia, magnesium, preeclampsia, spinal anaesthesia.

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361 A Comparative Analysis of Performance and QoS Issues in MANETs

Authors: Javed Parvez, Mushtaq Ahmad Peer

Abstract:

Mobile Ad hoc networks (MANETs) are collections of wireless mobile nodes dynamically reconfiguring and collectively forming a temporary network. These types of networks assume existence of no fixed infrastructure and are often useful in battle-field tactical operations or emergency search-and-rescue type of operations where fixed infrastructure is neither feasible nor practical. They also find use in ad hoc conferences, campus networks and commercial recreational applications carrying multimedia traffic. All of the above applications of MANETs require guaranteed levels of performance as experienced by the end-user. This paper focuses on key challenges in provisioning predetermined levels of such Quality of Service (QoS). It also identifies functional areas where QoS models are currently defined and used. Evolving functional areas where performance and QoS provisioning may be applied are also identified and some suggestions are provided for further research in this area. Although each of the above functional areas have been discussed separately in recent research studies, since these QoS functional areas are highly correlated and interdependent, a comprehensive and comparative analysis of these areas and their interrelationships is desired. In this paper we have attempted to provide such an overview.

Keywords: Bandwidth Reservation, Congestion, DynamicNetwork Topology, End-to-End Delay, Flexible QoS Model forMANET(FQMM), Hidden Terminal, Mobile AdhocNetwork(MANET), Packet Jitter, Queuing, Quality-of-Service(QoS), Relative Bandwidth Service Differentiation(RBSD), Resource ReSerVation Protocol (RSVP).

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360 Optimization of a New Three-Phase High Voltage Power Supply for Industrial Microwaves Generators with N Magnetrons by Phase (Treated Case N=1)

Authors: M. Bassoui, M. Ferfra, M. Chraygane, M. Ould Ahmedou, N. Elghazal, A. Belhaiba

Abstract:

Currently, the High voltage power supply for microwave generators with one magnetron uses a single-phase transformer with magnetic shunt. To contribute in the development of technological innovation in industry of manufacturing of power supplies of magnetrons for microwaves, ovens for domestic or industrial use, this original work treats the optimization of a new three-phase high voltage power supply for industrial microwaves generators with N magnetrons by phase (Treated case N=1), from its modeling with Matlab-Simulink. The design of this power supply uses three π quadruple models equivalents of new three-phase transformer with magnetic shunt of each phase. Every one supplies at its output a voltage doubler cell composed of a capacitor and a diode that in its output supplies only one magnetron.  In this work we will define a strategy that aims to reduce the volume of the transformer and the weight and cost of the entire system of the high voltage power supply, while respecting the conditions recommended by the manufacturer, concerning the current flowing in each magnetron: (Imax <1.2 A, IAv ≈ 300 mA).

 

Keywords: Optimization, Three-phase transformer, Modeling, power supply, magnetrons, Matlab Simulink, High Voltage

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359 A Hybrid Neural Network and Traditional Approach for Forecasting Lumpy Demand

Authors: A. Nasiri Pour, B. Rostami Tabar, A.Rahimzadeh

Abstract:

Accurate demand forecasting is one of the most key issues in inventory management of spare parts. The problem of modeling future consumption becomes especially difficult for lumpy patterns, which characterized by intervals in which there is no demand and, periods with actual demand occurrences with large variation in demand levels. However, many of the forecasting methods may perform poorly when demand for an item is lumpy. In this study based on the characteristic of lumpy demand patterns of spare parts a hybrid forecasting approach has been developed, which use a multi-layered perceptron neural network and a traditional recursive method for forecasting future demands. In the described approach the multi-layered perceptron are adapted to forecast occurrences of non-zero demands, and then a conventional recursive method is used to estimate the quantity of non-zero demands. In order to evaluate the performance of the proposed approach, their forecasts were compared to those obtained by using Syntetos & Boylan approximation, recently employed multi-layered perceptron neural network, generalized regression neural network and elman recurrent neural network in this area. The models were applied to forecast future demand of spare parts of Arak Petrochemical Company in Iran, using 30 types of real data sets. The results indicate that the forecasts obtained by using our proposed mode are superior to those obtained by using other methods.

Keywords: Lumpy Demand, Neural Network, Forecasting, Hybrid Approach.

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358 Non-reacting Numerical Simulation of Axisymmetric Trapped Vortex Combustor

Authors: Heval Serhat Uluk, Sam M. Dakka, Kuldeep Singh, Richard Jefferson-Loveday

Abstract:

This paper will focus on the suitability of a trapped vortex combustor as a candidate for gas turbine combustor objectives to minimize pressure drop across the combustor and investigate aerodynamic performance. Non-reacting simulation of axisymmetric cavity trapped vortex combustors was run to investigate the pressure drop for various cavity aspect ratios of 0.3, 0.6 and 1 and for air mass flow rates of 14 m/s, 28 m/s and 42 m/s. A numerical study of an axisymmetric trapped vortex combustor was carried out by using two-dimensional and three-dimensional computational domains. A comparison study was conducted between Reynolds Averaged Navier Stokes (RANS) k-ε Realizable with enhanced wall treatment and RANS k-ω Shear Stress Transport (SST) models to find the most suitable turbulence model. It was found that the k-ω SST model gives relatively close results to experimental outcomes. The numerical results were validated and showed good agreement with the experimental data. Pressure drop rises with increasing air mass flow rate, and the lowest pressure drop was observed at 0.6 cavity aspect ratio for all air mass flow rates tested, which agrees with the experimental outcome. A mixing enhancement study showed that 30-degree angle air injectors provide improved fuel-air mixing.

Keywords: Aerodynamic, Computational Fluid Dynamics, Propulsion, Trapped Vortex Combustor.

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357 Sustainability Reporting and Performances of the Companies in the Istanbul Stock Exchange Sustainability Index

Authors: Zeynep Şahin, Züleyha Yılmaz, Fikret Çankaya

Abstract:

In today's business world, in which it is difficult to survive, the economic life of products, services or knowledge is considerably reduced. Competitors produce similar products or extra-featured ones instantly. In this environment, the contribution of companies to the social and economic environment is a preferred criterion by consumers alongside products or services. Therefore, consumers need to obtain more detailed information about companies. Besides, this drastic change in the market encourages companies to become sustainable. Sustainable business means the company puts consumed products back. Corporate sustainability, corresponds to sustainability at the level of the company, and gives equal importance to company growth and profitability together with environmental and social issues. The BIST Sustainability Index started to be calculated by the Istanbul Stock Exchange (BIST) in 2014 to evaluate the sustainability performance of companies in Turkey. The main objective of this study is to present the importance of sustainability reports in Turkey. To this aim, the performances of 15 companies in the BIST Sustainability Index were compared the periods before and after entering the index. On the other hand, sustainability reporting practices should be encouraged to increase studies on this issue. In this context, to remain on the agenda of the issue is a further objective of this study. To achieve these objectives, the financial data of the companies in the period before and after entering to the BIST Sustainability Index were analyzed using t-test in Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) package. The results of the study showed that no significant difference between the performances of the companies in terms of the net profit margin, the return on assets and equity capital in these periods could be found. Therefore, it can be said that insufficient importance is given to sustainability issues in Turkey. The reasons for this situation might be considered as a lack of awareness due to the recent introduction and calculation of the index. It is expected that the awareness of firms and investors about sustainability will increase, and that they will demonstrate the necessary importance to this issue over time.

Keywords: BIST sustainability index, firm performance, sustainability, sustainability reporting.

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356 Engineering Education for Sustainable Development in China: Perceptions Bias between Experienced Engineers and Engineering Students

Authors: Liang Wang, Wei Zhang

Abstract:

Nowadays sustainable development has increasingly become an important research topic of engineering education all over the world. Engineering Education for Sustainable Development (EESD) highlighted the importance of addressing sustainable development in engineering practice. However, whether and how the professional engineering learning and experience affect those perceptions is an interesting research topic especially in Chinese context. Our study fills this gap by investigating perceptions bias of EESD among first-grade engineering students, fourth-grade engineering students and experienced engineers using a triple-dimensional model. Our goal is to find the effect of engineering learning and experience on sustainable development and make these learning and experiences more accessible for students and engineers in school and workplace context. The data (n = 138) came from a Likert questionnaire based on the triple-dimensional model of EESD adopted from literature reviews and the data contain 48 first-grade students, 56 fourth-grade students and 34 engineers with rich working experience from Environmental Engineering, Energy Engineering, Chemical Engineering and Civil Engineering in or graduated from Zhejiang University, China. One-way ANOVA analysis was used to find the difference in different dimensions among the three groups. The statistical results show that both engineering students and engineers have a well understanding of sustainable development in ecology dimension of EESD while there are significant differences among three groups as to the socio-economy and value rationality dimensions of EESD. The findings provide empirical evidence that both engineering learning and professional engineering experience are helpful to cultivate the cognition and perception of sustainable development in engineering education. The results of this work indicate that more practical content should be added to students’ engineering education while more theoretical content should be added to engineers’ training in order to promote the engineering students’ and engineers’ perceptions of sustainable development. In addition, as to the design of engineering courses and professional practice system for sustainable development, we should not only pay attention to the ecological aspects, but also emphasize the coordination of ecological, socio-economic and human-centered sustainable development (e.g., engineer's ethical responsibility).

Keywords: Engineering education, sustainable development, experienced engineers, engineering students.

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355 A survey Method and new design Lecture Chair for Complied Ergonomics Guideline at Classroom Building 2 Suranaree University of Technology, Thailand

Authors: Sumalee B., Sirinapa L., Jenjira T., Jr., Setasak S.

Abstract:

The paper describes ergonomics problems trend of student at B5101 classroom building 2, Suranaree University of Technology. The objective to survey ergonomics problems and effect from use chairs for sitting in class room. The result from survey method 100 student they use lecture chair for sitting in classroom more than 2 hours/ day by RULA[1]. and Body discomfort survey[2]. The result from Body discomfort survey contribute fatigue problems at neck, lower back, upper back and right shoulder 2.93, 2.91, 2.33, 1.75 respectively and result from RULA contribute fatigue problems at neck, body and right upper arm 4.00, 3.75 and 3.00 respectively are consistent. After that the researcher provide improvement plan for design new chair support student fatigue reduction by prepare data of sample anthropometry and design ergonomics chair prototype 3 unit. Then sample 100 student trial to use new chair and evaluate again by RULA, Body discomfort and satisfaction. The result from trial new chair after improvement by RULA present fatigue reduction average of head and neck from 4.00 to 2.25 , body and trunk from 3.75 to 2.00 and arm force from 1.00 to 0.25 respectively. The result from trial new chair after improvement by Body discomfort present fatigue reduction average of lower back from 2.91 to 0.87, neck from 2.93 to 1.24, upper back 2.33 to 0.84 and right upper arm from 1.75 to 0.74. That statistical of RULA and Body discomfort survey present fatigue reduction after improvement significance with a confidence level of 95% (p-value 0.05). When analyzing the relationship of fatigue as part of the body by Chi – square test during RULA and Body discomfort that before and after improvements were consistent with the significant level of confidence 95% (p-value 0.05) . Moreover the students satisfaction result from trial with a new chair for 30 minutes [3]. 72 percent very satisfied of the folding of the secondary writing simple 66% the width of the writing plate, 64% the suitability of the writing plate, 62% of soft seat cushion and 61% easy to seat the chair.

Keywords: Ergonomics, Work station design, ErgonomicsChair, Student, Fatigue

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354 A Posterior Predictive Model-Based Control Chart for Monitoring Healthcare

Authors: Yi-Fan Lin, Peter P. Howley, Frank A. Tuyl

Abstract:

Quality measurement and reporting systems are used in healthcare internationally. In Australia, the Australian Council on Healthcare Standards records and reports hundreds of clinical indicators (CIs) nationally across the healthcare system. These CIs are measures of performance in the clinical setting, and are used as a screening tool to help assess whether a standard of care is being met. Existing analysis and reporting of these CIs incorporate Bayesian methods to address sampling variation; however, such assessments are retrospective in nature, reporting upon the previous six or twelve months of data. The use of Bayesian methods within statistical process control for monitoring systems is an important pursuit to support more timely decision-making. Our research has developed and assessed a new graphical monitoring tool, similar to a control chart, based on the beta-binomial posterior predictive (BBPP) distribution to facilitate the real-time assessment of health care organizational performance via CIs. The BBPP charts have been compared with the traditional Bernoulli CUSUM (BC) chart by simulation. The more traditional “central” and “highest posterior density” (HPD) interval approaches were each considered to define the limits, and the multiple charts were compared via in-control and out-of-control average run lengths (ARLs), assuming that the parameter representing the underlying CI rate (proportion of cases with an event of interest) required estimation. Preliminary results have identified that the BBPP chart with HPD-based control limits provides better out-of-control run length performance than the central interval-based and BC charts. Further, the BC chart’s performance may be improved by using Bayesian parameter estimation of the underlying CI rate.

Keywords: Average run length, Bernoulli CUSUM chart, beta binomial posterior predictive distribution, clinical indicator, health care organization, highest posterior density interval.

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353 Competitive Adsorption of Heavy Metals onto Natural and Activated Clay: Equilibrium, Kinetics and Modeling

Authors: L. Khalfa, M. Bagane, M. L. Cervera, S. Najjar

Abstract:

The aim of this work is to present a low cost adsorbent for removing toxic heavy metals from aqueous solutions. Therefore, we are interested to investigate the efficiency of natural clay minerals collected from south Tunisia and their modified form using sulfuric acid in the removal of toxic metal ions: Zn(II) and Pb(II) from synthetic waste water solutions. The obtained results indicate that metal uptake is pH-dependent and maximum removal was detected to occur at pH 6. Adsorption equilibrium is very rapid and it was achieved after 90 min for both metal ions studied. The kinetics results show that the pseudo-second-order model describes the adsorption and the intraparticle diffusion models are the limiting step. The treatment of natural clay with sulfuric acid creates more active sites and increases the surface area, so it showed an increase of the adsorbed quantities of lead and zinc in single and binary systems. The competitive adsorption study showed that the uptake of lead was inhibited in the presence of 10 mg/L of zinc. An antagonistic binary adsorption mechanism was observed. These results revealed that clay is an effective natural material for removing lead and zinc in single and binary systems from aqueous solution.

Keywords: Lead, zinc heavy metal, activated clay, kinetic study, competitive adsorption, modeling.

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352 Anti-Diabetic Effect of Bryophyllum pinnatum Leaves

Authors: E. F. Aransiola, M.O. Daramola, E. O. Iwalewa, A. M. Seluwa, O. O. Olufowobi

Abstract:

Diabetes is a chronic metabolic disorder that affects the quality of life in terms of physical health, social and psychological well-being. In spite of the enormous progress in the treatment of diabetes using existing commercial drugs, such as, insulin and oral hypoglycemic agents, the quest and search for new drugs is imperative due to several limitations of the commercial drugs. In addition, the existing diabetic drugs are expensive and unaffordable by the rural populace in the developing countries. The present study demonstrates the anti-diabetic property of aqueous extract of Bryophyllum pinnatum (BP) leaves using diabetic rats (albino rats) as models. At the same time, the anti-diabetic effect of the aqueous extract was compared to that of a sample containing a mixture of the extract and a commercial diabetic medicine, glibenclamide. A specified dosage of aqueous extract of Bryophyllum pinnatum (BP) leaves was administered on the experimental diabetic rats, and their BGL was measured and recorded. The results showed a significant drop in the BGL of the diabetic rats to a value close to normal blood glucose level within 120 minutes when only aqueous extract from BP leaves was used. When a sample containing a mixture of the aqueous extract and glibenclamide was administered, a further drop in BGL was observed. Therefore, the results reveal that aqueous extract of Bryophyllum pinnatum leaves have significant anti-diabetic properties, and that the performance of the existing drugs (glibenclamide) could be enhanced with the use of the aqueous extract.

Keywords: Anti-diabetics, Bryophyllum pinnatum, Blood glucose level, albino rats.

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351 Determination of Lithology, Porosity and Water Saturation for Mishrif Carbonate Formation

Authors: F. S. Kadhim, A. Samsuri, H. Alwan

Abstract:

Well logging records can help to answer many questions from a wide range of special interested information and basic petrophysical properties to formation evaluation of oil and gas reservoirs. The accurate calculations of porosity in carbonate reservoirs are the most challenging aspects of the well logging analysis. Many equations have been developed over the years based on known physical principles or on empirically derived relationships, which are used to calculate porosity, estimate lithology, and water saturation; however these parameters are calculated from well logs by using modern technique in a current study. Nasiriya oil field is one of the giant oilfields in the Middle East, and the formation under study is the Mishrif carbonate formation which is the shallowest hydrocarbon bearing zone in this oilfield. Neurolog software was used to digitize the scanned copies of the available logs. Environmental corrections had been made as per Schlumberger charts 2005, which supplied in the Interactive Petrophysics software. Three saturation models have been used to calculate water saturation of carbonate formations, which are simple Archie equation, Dual water model, and Indonesia model. Results indicate that the Mishrif formation consists mainly of limestone, some dolomite, and shale. The porosity interpretation shows that the logging tools have a good quality after making the environmental corrections. The average formation water saturation for Mishrif formation is around 0.4- 0.6.This study is provided accurate behavior of petrophysical properties with depth for this formation by using modern software.

Keywords: Lithology, Porosity, Water Saturation, Carbonate Formation, Mishrif Formation.

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350 Numerical Studies on Flow Field Characteristics of Cavity Based Scramjet Combustors

Authors: Rakesh Arasu, Sasitharan Ambicapathy, Sivaraj Ponnusamy, Mohanraj Murugesan, V. R. Sanal Kumar

Abstract:

The flow field within the combustor of scramjet engine is very complex and poses a considerable challenge in the design and development of a supersonic combustor with an optimized geometry. In this paper comprehensive numerical studies on flow field characteristics of different cavity based scramjet combustors with transverse injection of hydrogen have been carried out for both non-reacting and reacting flows. The numerical studies have been carried out using a validated 2D unsteady, density based 1st-order implicit k-omega turbulence model with multi-component finite rate reacting species. The results show a wide variety of flow features resulting from the interactions between the injector flows, shock waves, boundary layers, and cavity flows. We conjectured that an optimized cavity is a good choice to stabilize the flame in the hypersonic flow, and it generates a recirculation zone in the scramjet combustor. We comprehended that the cavity based scramjet combustors having a bearing on the source of disturbance for the transverse jet oscillation, fuel/air mixing enhancement, and flameholding improvement. We concluded that cavity shape with backward facing step and 45o forward ramp is a good choice to get higher temperatures at the exit compared to other four models of scramjet combustors considered in this study.

Keywords: Flame holding, Hypersonic flow, Scramjet combustor, Supersonic combustor.

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349 Development of Entrepreneurship in Industry on the Basis of Regulation of Transnational Production Chains in the Russian Arctic

Authors: E. N. Vetrova, L.V. Lapochkina, N. V. Nikulina

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In the national economy, entrepreneurship plays the role of a buffer between economy and policy for it contributes to improving budget effectiveness and decreasing dependence of economy on the state. Entrepreneurship in industry makes it possible to increase the added value that is formed in production chains and to decrease dependence on import. Under the current circumstances, when sanctions are being imposed, this is especially relevant for Russia and for the realization of projects in the Russian Arctic. However, development of entrepreneurship in industry requires an enlightened state policy. The purpose of the research is elaboration of recommendations for improving economic effectiveness of the realization of the Arctic projects on the basis of conceptual proposals for the development of entrepreneurship in industry. The paper presents the studies of the extractive industry role in the Russian economy and proves its raw material character. The analysis of production chains in industry on the basis of the conception of the added value global chains demonstrated a low added value formed by Russian companies. The study of changes in the structure of economy based on systemic, statistical and comparative analyses revealed no positive changes in the structure of economy over the period under consideration. This is a manifestation of ineffectiveness of the Russian industrial policy in general and within the Arctic region in particular. The authors identified the problems information and implementation of the state industrial policy in the Arctic region and in the development of national entrepreneurship, analyzed the shortcomings of the current state policy in the sphere of the Russian industry. On the basis of the conducted studies, the authors formulated conceptual approaches to change the state policy in the Arctic. The basic idea of the authors is to substantiate the focus of the state regulation on the development of entrepreneurship in industry in the process of the Russian Arctic exploration. At the same time another problem is solved–that of the development of the manufacturing industry in the southern regions of the northwestern part of Russia. The criterion of effectiveness in this case is the economic effectiveness.

Keywords: Entrepreneurship in industry, global chains of the added value, government regulation, industrial policies, production chains in the Arctic region, economic effectiveness.

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348 Highly Optimized Novel High Speed Low Power Barrel Shifter at 22nm Hi K Metal Gate Strained Si Technology Node

Authors: Shobha Sharma, Amita Dev

Abstract:

This research paper presents highly optimized barrel shifter at 22nm Hi K metal gate strained Si technology node. This barrel shifter is having a unique combination of static and dynamic body bias which gives lowest power delay product. This power delay product is compared with the same circuit at same technology node with static forward biasing at ‘supply/2’ and also with normal reverse substrate biasing and still found to be the lowest. The power delay product of this barrel sifter is .39362X10-17J and is lowered by approximately 78% to reference proposed barrel shifter at 32nm bulk CMOS technology. Power delay product of barrel shifter at 22nm Hi K Metal gate technology with normal reverse substrate bias is 2.97186933X10-17J and can be compared with this design’s PDP of .39362X10-17J. This design uses both static and dynamic substrate biasing and also has approximately 96% lower power delay product compared to only forward body biased at half of supply voltage. The NMOS model used are predictive technology models of Arizona state university and the simulations to be carried out using HSPICE simulator.

Keywords: Dynamic body biasing, highly optimized barrel shifter, PDP, Static body biasing.

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347 Influence of Loading Pattern and Shaft Rigidity on Laterally Loaded Helical Piles in Cohesionless Soil

Authors: Mohamed Hesham Hamdy Abdelmohsen, Ahmed Shawky Abdul Aziz, Mona Fawzy Al-Daghma

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Helical piles are widely used as axially and laterally loaded deep foundations. When they are required to resist bearing combined loads (BCLs), such as axial compression and lateral thrust, different behaviour is expected, necessitating further investigation. The aim of the present article is to clarify the behaviour of a single helical pile of different shaft rigidity embedded in cohesionless soil and subjected to simultaneous or successive loading patterns of BCLs. The study was first developed analytically and extended numerically. The numerical analysis using PLAXIS 3D was further verified through a laboratory experimental programme on a set of helical pile models. The results indicate highly interactive effects of the studied parameters, but it is obviously confirmed that the pile performance increases with both the increase of shaft rigidity and the change of BCLs loading pattern from simultaneous to successive. However, it is noted that the increase of vertical load does not always enhance the lateral capacity but may cause a decrement in lateral capacity, as observed with helical piles of flexible shafts. This study provides insightful information for the design of helical piles in structures loaded by complex sequence of forces, wind turbines, and industrial shafts.

Keywords: Helical pile, lateral loads. combined loads, cohesionless soil, analytical model, PLAXIS 3D.

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346 Lineup Optimization Model of Basketball Players Based on the Prediction of Recursive Neural Networks

Authors: Wang Yichen, Haruka Yamashita

Abstract:

In recent years, in the field of sports, decision making such as member in the game and strategy of the game based on then analysis of the accumulated sports data are widely attempted. In fact, in the NBA basketball league where the world's highest level players gather, to win the games, teams analyze the data using various statistical techniques. However, it is difficult to analyze the game data for each play such as the ball tracking or motion of the players in the game, because the situation of the game changes rapidly, and the structure of the data should be complicated. Therefore, it is considered that the analysis method for real time game play data is proposed. In this research, we propose an analytical model for "determining the optimal lineup composition" using the real time play data, which is considered to be difficult for all coaches. In this study, because replacing the entire lineup is too complicated, and the actual question for the replacement of players is "whether or not the lineup should be changed", and “whether or not Small Ball lineup is adopted”. Therefore, we propose an analytical model for the optimal player selection problem based on Small Ball lineups. In basketball, we can accumulate scoring data for each play, which indicates a player's contribution to the game, and the scoring data can be considered as a time series data. In order to compare the importance of players in different situations and lineups, we combine RNN (Recurrent Neural Network) model, which can analyze time series data, and NN (Neural Network) model, which can analyze the situation on the field, to build the prediction model of score. This model is capable to identify the current optimal lineup for different situations. In this research, we collected all the data of accumulated data of NBA from 2019-2020. Then we apply the method to the actual basketball play data to verify the reliability of the proposed model.

Keywords: Recurrent Neural Network, players lineup, basketball data, decision making model.

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345 Simple Infrastructure in Measuring Countries e-Government

Authors: Sukhbaatar Dorj, Erdenebaatar Altangerel

Abstract:

As alternative to existing e-government measuring models, here proposed a new customer centric, service oriented, simple approach for measuring countries e-Governments. If successfully implemented, built infrastructure will provide a single egovernment index number for countries. Main schema is as follows. Country CIO or equal position government official, at the beginning of each year will provide to United Nations dedicated web site 4 numbers on behalf of own country: 1) Ratio of available online public services, to total number of public services, 2) Ratio of interagency inter ministry online public services to total number of available online public services, 3) Ratio of total number of citizen and business entities served online annually to total number of citizen and business entities served annually online and physically on those services, 4) Simple index for geographical spread of online served citizen and business entities. 4 numbers then combined into one index number by mathematical Average function. In addition to 4 numbers 5th number can be introduced as service quality indicator of online public services. If in ordering of countries index number is equal, 5th criteria will be used. Notice: This approach is for country’s current e-government achievement assessment, not for e-government readiness assessment.

Keywords: Countries e-government index, e-government, infrastructure for measuring e-government, measuring e-government.

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344 Passive and Active Spatial Pendulum Tuned Mass Damper with Two Tuning Frequencies

Authors: W. T. A. Mohammed, M. Eltaeb, R. Kashani

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The first bending modes of tall asymmetric structures in the two lateral X and Y-directions have two different natural frequencies. To add tuned damping to these bending modes, one needs to either a) use two pendulum-tuned mass dampers (PTMDs) with one tuning frequency, each PTMD targeting one of the bending modes, or b) use one PTMD with two tuning frequencies (one in each lateral directions). Option (a), being more massive, requiring more space, and being more expensive, is less attractive than option (b). Considering that the tuning frequency of a pendulum depends mainly on the pendulum length, one way of realizing option (b) is by constraining the swinging length of the pendulum in one direction but not in the other; such PTMD is dubbed passive Bi-PTMD. Alternatively, option (b) can be realized by actively setting the tuning frequencies of the PTMD in the two directions. In this work, accurate physical models of passive Bi-PTMD and active PTMD are developed and incorporated into the numerical model of a tall asymmetric structure. The model of PTMDs plus structure is used for a) synthesizing such PTMDs for particular applications and b) evaluating their damping effectiveness in mitigating the dynamic lateral responses of their target asymmetric structures, perturbed by wind load in X and Y-directions. Depending on how elaborate the control scheme is, the active PTMD can either be made to yield the same damping effectiveness as the passive Bi-PTMD of the same size or the passive Bi-TMD twice as massive as the active PTMD.

Keywords: Active tuned mass damper, high-rise building, multi-frequency tuning, vibration control.

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343 Monte Carlo Estimation of Heteroscedasticity and Periodicity Effects in a Panel Data Regression Model

Authors: Nureni O. Adeboye, Dawud A. Agunbiade

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This research attempts to investigate the effects of heteroscedasticity and periodicity in a Panel Data Regression Model (PDRM) by extending previous works on balanced panel data estimation within the context of fitting PDRM for Banks audit fee. The estimation of such model was achieved through the derivation of Joint Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test for homoscedasticity and zero-serial correlation, a conditional LM test for zero serial correlation given heteroscedasticity of varying degrees as well as conditional LM test for homoscedasticity given first order positive serial correlation via a two-way error component model. Monte Carlo simulations were carried out for 81 different variations, of which its design assumed a uniform distribution under a linear heteroscedasticity function. Each of the variation was iterated 1000 times and the assessment of the three estimators considered are based on Variance, Absolute bias (ABIAS), Mean square error (MSE) and the Root Mean Square (RMSE) of parameters estimates. Eighteen different models at different specified conditions were fitted, and the best-fitted model is that of within estimator when heteroscedasticity is severe at either zero or positive serial correlation value. LM test results showed that the tests have good size and power as all the three tests are significant at 5% for the specified linear form of heteroscedasticity function which established the facts that Banks operations are severely heteroscedastic in nature with little or no periodicity effects.

Keywords: Audit fee, heteroscedasticity, Lagrange multiplier test, periodicity.

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342 Research on the Optimization of the Facility Layout of Efficient Cafeterias for Troops

Authors: Qing Zhang, Jiachen Nie, Yujia Wen, Guanyuan Kou, Peng Yu, Kun Xia, Qin Yang, Li Ding

Abstract:

Background: A facility layout problem (FLP) is an NP-complete (non-deterministic polynomial) problem, for which is hard to obtain an exact optimal solution. FLP has been widely studied in various limited spaces and workflows. For example, cafeterias with many types of equipment for troops cause chaotic processes when dining. Objective: This article tried to optimize the layout of a troops’ cafeteria and to improve the overall efficiency of the dining process. Methods: First, the original cafeteria layout design scheme was analyzed from an ergonomic perspective and two new design schemes were generated. Next, three facility layout models were designed, and further simulation was applied to compare the total time and density of troops between each scheme. Last, an experiment of the dining process with video observation and analysis verified the simulation results. Results: In a simulation, the dining time under the second new layout is shortened by 2.25% and 1.89% (p<0.0001, p=0.0001) compared with the other two layouts, while troops-flow density and interference both greatly reduced in the two new layouts. In the experiment, process completing time and the number of interferences reduced as well, which verified corresponding simulation results. Conclusion: Our two new layout schemes are tested to be optimal by a series of simulation and space experiments. In future research, similar approaches could be applied when taking layout-design algorithm calculation into consideration.

Keywords: Troops’ cafeteria, layout optimization, dining efficiency, AnyLogic simulation, field experiment

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341 Effect of Nanoparticles on Wheat Seed Germination and Seedling Growth

Authors: Pankaj Singh Rawat, Rajeew Kumar, Pradeep Ram, Priyanka Pandey

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Wheat is an important cereal crop for food security. Boosting the wheat production and productivity is the major challenge across the nation. Good quality of seed is required for maintaining optimum plant stand which ultimately increases grain yield. Ensuring a good germination is one of the key steps to ensure proper plant stand and moisture assurance during seed germination may help to speed up the germination. The tiny size of nanoparticles may help in entry of water into seed without disturbing their internal structure. Considering above, a laboratory experiment was conducted during 2012-13 at G.B. Pant University of Agriculture and Technology, Pantnagar, India. The completely randomized design was used for statistical analysis. The experiment was conducted in two phases. In the first phase, the appropriate concentration of nanoparticles for seed treatment was screened. In second phase seed soaking hours of nanoparticles for better seed germination were standardized. Wheat variety UP2526 was taken as test crop. Four nanoparticles (TiO2, ZnO, nickel and chitosan) were taken for study. The crop germination studies were done in petri dishes and standard package and practices were used to raise the seedlings. The germination studies were done by following standard procedure. In first phase of the experiment, seeds were treated with 50 and 300 ppm of nanoparticles and control was also maintained for comparison. In the second phase of experiment, seeds were soaked for 4 hours, 6 hours and 8 hours with 50 ppm nanoparticles of TiO2, ZnO, nickel and chitosan along with control treatment to identify the soaking time for better seed germination. Experiment revealed that the application of nanoparticles help to enhance seed germination. The study revealed that seed treatment with  nanoparticles at 50 ppm concentration increases root length, shoot length, seedling length, shoot dry weight, seedling dry weight, seedling vigour index I and seedling vigour index II as compared to seed soaking at 300 ppm concentration. This experiment showed that seed soaking up to 4 hr was better as compared to 6 and 8 hrs. Seed soaking with nanoparticles specially TiO2, ZnO, and chitosan proved to enhance germination and seedling growth indices of wheat crop.

Keywords: Nanoparticles, seed germination, seed soaking, wheat.

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340 Breast Cancer Survivability Prediction via Classifier Ensemble

Authors: Mohamed Al-Badrashiny, Abdelghani Bellaachia

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This paper presents a classifier ensemble approach for predicting the survivability of the breast cancer patients using the latest database version of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program of the National Cancer Institute. The system consists of two main components; features selection and classifier ensemble components. The features selection component divides the features in SEER database into four groups. After that it tries to find the most important features among the four groups that maximizes the weighted average F-score of a certain classification algorithm. The ensemble component uses three different classifiers, each of which models different set of features from SEER through the features selection module. On top of them, another classifier is used to give the final decision based on the output decisions and confidence scores from each of the underlying classifiers. Different classification algorithms have been examined; the best setup found is by using the decision tree, Bayesian network, and Na¨ıve Bayes algorithms for the underlying classifiers and Na¨ıve Bayes for the classifier ensemble step. The system outperforms all published systems to date when evaluated against the exact same data of SEER (period of 1973-2002). It gives 87.39% weighted average F-score compared to 85.82% and 81.34% of the other published systems. By increasing the data size to cover the whole database (period of 1973-2014), the overall weighted average F-score jumps to 92.4% on the held out unseen test set.

Keywords: Classifier ensemble, breast cancer survivability, data mining, SEER.

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