Search results for: estimate

Authors: D. I. De Souza, D. R. Fonseca, R. Rocha

Abstract:

In this paper we will develop further the sequential life test approach presented in a previous article by [1] using an underlying two parameter Weibull sampling distribution. The minimum life will be considered equal to zero. We will again provide rules for making one of the three possible decisions as each observation becomes available; that is: accept the null hypothesis H0; reject the null hypothesis H0; or obtain additional information by making another observation. The product being analyzed is a new type of a low alloy-high strength steel product. To estimate the shape and the scale parameters of the underlying Weibull model we will use a maximum likelihood approach for censored failure data. A new example will further develop the proposed sequential life testing approach.

Keywords: Sequential Life Testing, Underlying Weibull Model, Maximum Likelihood Approach, Hypothesis Testing.

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Authors: Amal Kr Sarma, H Zeen Devi, N Nimai Singh

Abstract:

The Constraints imposed by non-thermal leptogenesis on the survival of the neutrino mass models describing the presently available neutrino mass patterns, are studied numerically. We consider the Majorana CP violating phases coming from right-handed Majorana mass matrices to estimate the baryon asymmetry of the universe, for different neutrino mass models namely quasi-degenerate, inverted hierarchical and normal hierarchical models, with tribimaximal mixings. Considering two possible diagonal forms of Dirac neutrino mass matrix as either charged lepton or up-quark mass matrix, the heavy right-handed mass matrices are constructed from the light neutrino mass matrix. Only the normal hierarchical model leads to the best predictions of baryon asymmetry of the universe, consistent with observations in non-thermal leptogenesis scenario.

Keywords: Thermal leptogenesis, Non-thermal leptogenesis.

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Authors: L. Strauta, S. Muižniece-Brasava

Abstract:

Even though legumes possess high nutritional value and have a rather high protein content for plant origin products, they are underutilized mostly due to their lengthy cooking time. To increase the presence of legume-based products in human diet, new extruded products were made of cow peas (Vigna unguiculata (L.) Walp.). But as it is known, adding different moisture content to flour before extrusion can change the physical properties of the extruded product. Experiments were carried out to estimate the optimal moisture content for cow pea extrusion. After extrusion, the pH level had dropped from 6.7 to 6.5 and the lowest hardness rate was observed in the samples with additional 9 g 100g^-1 of moisture - 28±4N, but the volume mass of the samples with additional 9 g100g^-1 of water was 263±3 g L^-1; all samples were approximately 7±1mm long.

Keywords: Cow pea, extrusion-cooking, moisture, size.

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Authors: Khaled M. EL-Naggar

Abstract:

This paper presents a fast and efficient on-line technique for estimating impedance of unbalanced loads in power systems. The proposed technique is an application of a discrete timedynamic filter based on stochastic estimation theory which is suitable for estimating parameters in noisy environment. The algorithm uses sets of digital samples of the distorted voltage and current waveforms of the non-linear load to estimate the harmonic contents of these two signal. The non-linear load impedance is then calculated from these contents. The method is tested using practical data. Results are reported and compared with those obtained using the conventional least error squares technique. In addition to the very accurate results obtained, the method can detect and reject bad measurements. This can be considered as a very important advantage over the conventional static estimation methods such as the least error square method.

Keywords: Estimation, identification, Harmonics, Dynamic Filter.

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Authors: D.M. Weeraddana, K.S. Walgama, E.C. Kulasekere

Abstract:

A framework to estimate the state of dynamically varying environment where data are generated from heterogeneous sources possessing partial knowledge about the environment is presented. This is entirely derived within Dempster-Shafer and Evidence Filtering frameworks. The belief about the current state is expressed as belief and plausibility functions. An addition to Single Input Single Output Evidence Filter, Multiple Input Single Output Evidence Filtering approach is introduced. Variety of applications such as situational estimation of an emergency environment can be developed within the framework successfully. Fire propagation scenario is used to justify the proposed framework, simulation results are presented.

Keywords: Dempster-Shafer Belief theory, Evidence Filtering, Evidence Fusion, Sensor Modalities, Wireless Sensor Networks

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Authors: Magdi M. Nabi, Ding-Li Yu

Abstract:

Control of a semi-batch polymerization reactor using an adaptive radial basis function (RBF) neural network method is investigated in this paper. A neural network inverse model is used to estimate the valve position of the reactor; this method can identify the controlled system with the RBF neural network identifier. The weights of the adaptive PID controller are timely adjusted based on the identification of the plant and self-learning capability of RBFNN. A PID controller is used in the feedback control to regulate the actual temperature by compensating the neural network inverse model output. Simulation results show that the proposed control has strong adaptability, robustness and satisfactory control performance and the nonlinear system is achieved.

Keywords: Chylla-Haase polymerization reactor, RBF neural networks, feed-forward and feedback control.

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Authors: Johann Barbier, Guillaume Sicot, Sebastien Houcke

Abstract:

In this paper we present a generic approach for the problem of the blind estimation of the parameters of linear and convolutional error correcting codes. In a non-cooperative context, an adversary has only access to the noised transmission he has intercepted. The intercepter has no knowledge about the parameters used by the legal users. So, before having acess to the information he has first to blindly estimate the parameters of the error correcting code of the communication. The presented approach has the main advantage that the problem of reconstruction of such codes can be expressed in a very simple way. This allows us to evaluate theorical bounds on the complexity of the reconstruction process but also bounds on the estimation rate. We show that some classical reconstruction techniques are optimal and also explain why some of them have theorical complexities greater than these experimentally observed.

Keywords: Blind estimation parameters, error correcting codes, non-cooperative context, reconstruction algorithm

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Authors: Sven Rebhan, Nils Einecke, Julian Eggert

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In this paper we propose a method for vision systems to consistently represent functional dependencies between different visual routines along with relational short- and long-term knowledge about the world. Here the visual routines are bound to visual properties of objects stored in the memory of the system. Furthermore, the functional dependencies between the visual routines are seen as a graph also belonging to the object-s structure. This graph is parsed in the course of acquiring a visual property of an object to automatically resolve the dependencies of the bound visual routines. Using this representation, the system is able to dynamically rearrange the processing order while keeping its functionality. Additionally, the system is able to estimate the overall computational costs of a certain action. We will also show that the system can efficiently use that structure to incorporate already acquired knowledge and thus reduce the computational demand.

Keywords: Adaptive systems, Knowledge representation, Machinevision, Systems engineering

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Authors: Aliakbar Sayadi, Thomas R. Neitzert, G. Charles Clifton, Min Cheol Han

Abstract:

The present study aims to assess the performance of vermiculite concrete containing poly-lactic acid beads as an eco-friendly aggregate. Vermiculite aggregate was replaced by poly-lactic acid in percentages of 0%, 20%, 40%, 60% and 80%. Mechanical and thermal properties of concrete were investigated. Test results indicated that the inclusion of poly-lactic acid decreased the PH value of concrete and all the poly-lactic acid particles were dissolved due to the formation of sodium lactide and lactide oligomers when subjected to the high alkaline environment of concrete. In addition, an increase in thermal conductivity value of concrete was observed as the ratio of poly-lactic acid increased. Moreover, a set of equations was proposed to estimate the water-cement ratio, cement content and water absorption ratio of concrete.

Keywords: Poly-lactic acid, PLA, vermiculite, concrete, eco-friendly, mechanical properties.

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Authors: M. Caramihai, Irina Severin

Abstract:

This paper deals with the design of an intelligent control structure for a bioprocess of Hansenula polymorpha yeast cultivation. The objective of the process control is to produce biomass in a desired physiological state. The work demonstrates that the designed Hybrid Control Techniques (HCT) are able to recognize specific evolution bioprocess trajectories using neural networks trained specifically for this purpose, in order to estimate the model parameters and to adjust the overall bioprocess evolution through an expert system and a fuzzy structure. The design of the control algorithm as well as its tuning through realistic simulations is presented. Taking into consideration the synergism of different paradigms like fuzzy logic, neural network, and symbolic artificial intelligence (AI), in this paper we present a real and fulfilled intelligent control architecture with application in bioprocess control.

Keywords: Bioprocess, intelligent control, neural nets, fuzzy structure, hybrid techniques.

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Authors: Sara A.Yones, Ahmed S. Moussa

Abstract:

Quantitative measurements of tumor in general and tumor volume in particular, become more realistic with the use of Magnetic Resonance imaging, especially when the tumor morphological changes become irregular and difficult to assess by clinical examination. However, tumor volume estimation strongly depends on the image segmentation, which is fuzzy by nature. In this paper a fuzzy approach is presented for tumor volume segmentation based on the fuzzy connectedness algorithm. The fuzzy affinity matrix resulting from segmentation is then used to estimate a fuzzy volume based on a certainty parameter, an Alpha Cut, defined by the user. The proposed method was shown to highly affect treatment decisions. A statistical analysis was performed in this study to validate the results based on a manual method for volume estimation and the importance of using the Alpha Cut is further explained.

Keywords: Alpha Cut, Fuzzy Connectedness, Magnetic Resonance Imaging, Tumor volume estimation.

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Authors: Smita S. D. Goorah, Dilish Jokhoo

Abstract:

A personal estimate of a health risk may not correspond to a scientific assessment of the health risk. Hence, there is a need to investigate perceived health risks in the public. In this study, a young, educated and healthy group of people from a tertiary institute were questioned about their health concerns. Ethics clearance was obtained and data was collected by means of a questionnaire. 362 students participated in the study. Tobacco use, heavy alcohol drinking, illicit drugs, unsafe sex and potential carcinogens were perceived to be the five greatest threats to health in this cohort. On the other hand natural health products, unemployment, unmet contraceptive needs, family violence and homelessness were felt to be the least perceived health risks. Nutrition-related health risks as well as health risks due to physical inactivity and obesity were not perceived as major health threats. Such a study of health perceptions may guide health promotion campaigns.

Keywords: Health promotion, perceptions of health risks, university students.

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Authors: Emilio A. Berny-Brandt, Sonia E. Ruiz

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Steel tubular towers serving as support structures for large wind turbines are subjected to several hundred million stress cycles caused by the turbulent nature of the wind. This causes highcycle fatigue, which could govern the design of the tower. Maintaining the support structure after the wind turbines reach its typical 20-year design life has become a common practice; however, quantifying the changes in the reliability on the tower is not usual. In this paper the effect of fatigue damage in the wind turbine structure is studied whit the use of fracture mechanics, and a method to estimate the reliability over time of the structure is proposed. A representative wind turbine located in Oaxaca, Mexico is then studied. It is found that the system reliability is significantly affected by the accumulation of fatigue damage. 

Keywords: Crack growth, fatigue, Monte Carlo simulation, structural reliability, wind turbines

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Authors: Barenten Suciu

Abstract:

In this work, by replacing the traditional solid spokes with colloidal spokes, a vehicle wheel with a built-in suspension structure is proposed. Following the background and description of the wheel system, firstly, a vibration model of the wheel equipped with colloidal spokes is proposed, and based on such model the equivalent damping coefficients and spring constants are identified. Then, a modified model of a quarter-vehicle moving on a rough pavement is proposed in order to estimate the transmissibility of vibration from the road roughness to vehicle body. In the end, the optimal design of the colloidal spokes and the optimum number of colloidal spokes are decided in order to minimize the transmissibility of vibration, i.e., to maximize the ride comfort of the vehicle.

Keywords: Built-in suspension, colloidal spoke, intrinsic spring, vibration analysis, wheel.

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Authors: Alexandros Leontitsis, Archana P. Sangole

Abstract:

This article presents a short discussion on optimum neighborhood size selection in a spherical selforganizing feature map (SOFM). A majority of the literature on the SOFMs have addressed the issue of selecting optimal learning parameters in the case of Cartesian topology SOFMs. However, the use of a Spherical SOFM suggested that the learning aspects of Cartesian topology SOFM are not directly translated. This article presents an approach on how to estimate the neighborhood size of a spherical SOFM based on the data. It adopts the L-curve criterion, previously suggested for choosing the regularization parameter on problems of linear equations where their right-hand-side is contaminated with noise. Simulation results are presented on two artificial 4D data sets of the coupled Hénon-Ikeda map.

Keywords: Parameter estimation, self-organizing feature maps, spherical topology.

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Authors: T. Kjosmoen, T. Ryen, T. Eftestøl

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In biological and biomedical research motif finding tools are important in locating regulatory elements in DNA sequences. There are many such motif finding tools available, which often yield position weight matrices and significance indicators. These indicators, p-values and E-values, describe the likelihood that a motif alignment is generated by the background process, and the expected number of occurrences of the motif in the data set, respectively. The various tools often estimate these indicators differently, making them not directly comparable. One approach for comparing motifs from different tools, is computing the E-value as the product of the p-value and the number of possible alignments in the data set. In this paper we explore the combinatorics of the motif alignment models OOPS, ZOOPS, and ANR, and propose a generic algorithm for computing the number of possible combinations accurately. We also show that using the wrong alignment model can give E-values that significantly diverge from their true values.

Keywords: Motif alignment, combinatorics, p-value, E-value, OOPS, ZOOPS, ANR.

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Authors: S. A. Razavian Amrei, G.Ghodrati Amiri, D. Rezaei

Abstract:

This paper presents probabilistic horizontal seismic hazard assessment of Naghan, Iran. It displays the probabilistic estimate of Peak Ground Horizontal Acceleration (PGHA) for the return period of 475, 950 and 2475 years. The output of the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis is based on peak ground acceleration (PGA), which is the most common criterion in designing of buildings. A catalogue of seismic events that includes both historical and instrumental events was developed and covers the period from 840 to 2009. The seismic sources that affect the hazard in Naghan were identified within the radius of 200 km and the recurrence relationships of these sources were generated by Kijko and Sellevoll. Finally Peak Ground Horizontal Acceleration (PGHA) has been prepared to indicate the earthquake hazard of Naghan for different hazard levels by using SEISRISK III software.

Keywords: Seismic Hazard Assessment, Seismicity Parameters, PGA, Naghan, Iran

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Authors: Guy Leshem, Ya'acov Ritov

Abstract:

Traffic Management and Information Systems, which rely on a system of sensors, aim to describe in real-time traffic in urban areas using a set of parameters and estimating them. Though the state of the art focuses on data analysis, little is done in the sense of prediction. In this paper, we describe a machine learning system for traffic flow management and control for a prediction of traffic flow problem. This new algorithm is obtained by combining Random Forests algorithm into Adaboost algorithm as a weak learner. We show that our algorithm performs relatively well on real data, and enables, according to the Traffic Flow Evaluation model, to estimate and predict whether there is congestion or not at a given time on road intersections.

Keywords: Machine Learning, Boosting, Classification, TrafficCongestion, Data Collecting, Magnetic Loop Detectors, SignalizedIntersections, Traffic Signal Timing Optimization.

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Authors: Reza Fazeli, Vitor Leal, Jorge Pinho de Sousa

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Planning the transition period for the adoption of alternative fuel-technology powertrains is a challenging task that requires sophisticated analysis tools. In this study, a system dynamic approach was applied to analyze the bi-directional interaction between the development of the refueling station network and vehicle sales. Besides, the developed model was used to estimate the transition cost to reach a predefined target (share of alternative fuel vehicles) in different scenarios. Several scenarios have been analyzed to investigate the effectiveness and cost of incentives on the initial price of vehicles, and on the evolution of fuel and refueling stations. Obtained results show that a combined set of incentives will be more effective than just a single specific type of incentives.

Keywords: adoption of Alternative Fuel Vehicles, System Dynamic Analysis, Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles

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Authors: Oguz Ustun, Erdal Bekiroglu

Abstract:

In the present study, position estimation of switched reluctance motor (SRM) has been achieved on the basis of the artificial neural networks (ANNs). The ANNs can estimate the rotor position without using an extra rotor position sensor by measuring the phase flux linkages and phase currents. Flux linkage-phase current-rotor position data set and supervised backpropagation learning algorithm are used in training of the ANN based position estimator. A 4-phase SRM have been used to verify the accuracy and feasibility of the proposed position estimator. Simulation results show that the proposed position estimator gives precise and accurate position estimations for both under the low and high level reference speeds of the SRM

Keywords: Artificial neural networks, modeling andsimulation, position observer, switched reluctance motor.

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Authors: D. Sumathi, P. Poongodi

Abstract:

Cloud Computing refers to applications delivered as services over the internet, and the datacenters that provide those services with hardware and systems software. These were earlier referred to as Software as a Service (SaaS). Scheduling is justified by job components (called tasks), lack of information. In fact, in a large fraction of jobs from machine learning, bio-computing, and image processing domains, it is possible to estimate the maximum time required for a task in the job. This study focuses on Trust based scheduling to improve cloud security by modifying Heterogeneous Earliest Finish Time (HEFT) algorithm. It also proposes TR-HEFT (Trust Reputation HEFT) which is then compared to Dynamic Load Scheduling.

Keywords: Software as a Service (SaaS), Trust, Heterogeneous Earliest Finish Time (HEFT) algorithm, Dynamic Load Scheduling.

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Authors: Refaat M Mohamed, Ayman El-Baz, Aly A. Farag

Abstract:

This paper introduces a novel approach to estimate the clique potentials of Gibbs Markov random field (GMRF) models using the Support Vector Machines (SVM) algorithm and the Mean Field (MF) theory. The proposed approach is based on modeling the potential function associated with each clique shape of the GMRF model as a Gaussian-shaped kernel. In turn, the energy function of the GMRF will be in the form of a weighted sum of Gaussian kernels. This formulation of the GMRF model urges the use of the SVM with the Mean Field theory applied for its learning for estimating the energy function. The approach has been tested on synthetic texture images and is shown to provide satisfactory results in retrieving the synthesizing parameters.

Keywords: Image Modeling, MRF, Parameters Estimation, SVM Learning.

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Authors: Manu Krishnan, Phil Jacoby

Abstract:

In this paper, we discuss the paradigm shift in bank capital from the “gone concern" to the “going concern" mindset. We then propose a methodology for pricing a product of this shift called Contingent Capital Notes (“CoCos"). The Merton Model can determine a price for credit risk by using the firm-s equity value as a call option on those assets. Our pricing methodology for CoCos also uses the credit spread implied by the Merton Model in a subsequent derivative form created by John Hull et al . Here, a market implied asset volatility is calculated by using observed market CDS spreads. This implied asset volatility is then used to estimate the probability of triggering a predetermined “contingency event" given the distanceto- trigger (DTT). The paper then investigates the effect of varying DTTs and recovery assumptions on the CoCo yield. We conclude with an investment rationale.

Keywords: CoCo, Contingent capital, Bank Capital, Tier1 Capital

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Authors: Antonio Mauricio F. L. Miranda de Sá

Abstract:

Partial coherence between two signals removing the contribution of a periodic, deterministic signal is proposed for evaluating the interrelationship in multivariate systems. The estimator expression was derived and shown to be independent of such periodic signal. Simulations were used for obtaining its critical value, which were found to be the same as those for Gaussian signals, as well as for evaluating the technique. An Illustration with eletroencephalografic (EEG) signals during photic stimulation is also provided. The application of the proposed technique in both simulation and real EEG data indicate that it seems to be very specific in removing the contribution of periodic sources. The estimate independence of the periodic signal may widen partial coherence application to signal analysis, since it could be used together with simple coherence to test for contamination in signals by a common, periodic noise source.

Keywords: Partial coherence, periodic input, spectral analysis, statistical signal processing.

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Authors: Hyoup-Sang Yoon

Abstract:

Video-on-demand (VOD) is designed by using content delivery networks (CDN) to minimize the overall operational cost and to maximize scalability. Estimation of the viewing pattern (i.e., the relationship between the number of viewings and the ranking of VOD contents) plays an important role in minimizing the total operational cost and maximizing the performance of the VOD systems. In this paper, we have analyzed a large body of commercial VOD viewing data and found that the viewing rank distribution fits well with the parabolic fractal distribution. The weighted linear model fitting function is used to estimate the parameters (coefficients) of the parabolic fractal distribution. This paper presents an analytical basis for designing an optimal hierarchical VOD contents distribution system in terms of its cost and performance.

Keywords: VOD, CDN, parabolic fractal distribution, viewing rank, weighted linear model fitting

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Authors: Mohammadamin Zanganeh, Vahid Khalajzadeh

Abstract:

The problems associated with wind predictions of WAsP model in complex terrain are already the target of several studies in the last decade. In this paper, the influence of surrounding orography on accuracy of wind data analysis of a train is investigated. For the case study, a site with complex surrounding orography is considered. This site is located in Manjil, one of the windiest cities of Iran. For having precise evaluation of wind regime in the site, one-year wind data measurements from two metrological masts are used. To validate the obtained results from WAsP, the cross prediction between each mast is performed. The analysis reveals that WAsP model can estimate the wind speed behavior accurately. In addition, results show that this software can be used for predicting the wind regime in flat sites with complex surrounding orography.

Keywords: Complex terrain, Meteorological mast, WAsPmodel, Wind prediction

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Authors: Naushad Mamode Khan

Abstract:

The Com-Poisson (CMP) model is one of the most popular discrete generalized linear models (GLMS) that handles both equi-, over- and under-dispersed data. In longitudinal context, an integer-valued autoregressive (INAR(1)) process that incorporates covariate specification has been developed to model longitudinal CMP counts. However, the joint likelihood CMP function is difficult to specify and thus restricts the likelihood-based estimating methodology. The joint generalized quasi-likelihood approach (GQL-I) was instead considered but is rather computationally intensive and may not even estimate the regression effects due to a complex and frequently ill-conditioned covariance structure. This paper proposes a new GQL approach for estimating the regression parameters (GQL-III) that is based on a single score vector representation. The performance of GQL-III is compared with GQL-I and separate marginal GQLs (GQL-II) through some simulation experiments and is proved to yield equally efficient estimates as GQL-I and is far more computationally stable.

Keywords: Longitudinal, Com-Poisson, Ill-conditioned, INAR(1), GLMS, GQL.

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Authors: Seong-wan Baik, Soo-young Ye, Byeong-cheol Choi, Gye-rok Jeon

Abstract:

The measurement of anesthetic depth is necessary in anesthesiology. NN10 is very simple method among the RR intervals analysis methods. NN10 parameter means the numbers of above the 10 ms intervals of the normal to normal RR intervals. Bispectrum analysis is defined as 2D FFT. EEG signal reflected the non-linear peristalsis phenomena according to the change brain function. After analyzing the bispectrum of the 2 dimension, the most significant power spectrum density peaks appeared abundantly at the specific area in awakening and anesthesia state. These points are utilized to create the new index since many peaks appeared at the specific area in the frequency coordinate. The measured range of an index was 0-100. An index is 20-50 at an anesthesia, while the index is 90-60 at the awake. In this paper, the relation between NN10 parameter using ECG and bisepctrum index using EEG is observed to estimate the depth of anesthesia during anesthesia and then we estimated the utility of the anesthetic.

Keywords: Anesthesia, Bispectrum index, ECG, EEG

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Authors: R. Sabre

Abstract:

This work focuses on the symmetric alpha stable process with continuous time frequently used in modeling the signal with indefinitely growing variance, often observed with an unknown additive error. The objective of this paper is to estimate this error from discrete observations of the signal. For that, we propose a method based on the smoothing of the observations via Jackson polynomial kernel and taking into account the width of the interval where the spectral density is non-zero. This technique allows avoiding the “Aliasing phenomenon” encountered when the estimation is made from the discrete observations of a process with continuous time. We have studied the convergence rate of the estimator and have shown that the convergence rate improves in the case where the spectral density is zero at the origin. Thus, we set up an estimator of the additive error that can be subtracted for approaching the original signal without error.

Keywords: Spectral density, stable processes, aliasing, p-adic.

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Authors: Myriam Noureddine, Rachid Noureddine

Abstract:

Following the current economic challenges and competition, all systems, whatever their field, must be efficient and operational during their activity. In this context, it is imperative to anticipate, identify, eliminate and estimate the failures of systems, which may lead to an interruption of their function. This need requires the management of possible risks, through an assessment of the failures criticality following a dependability approach. On the other hand, at the time of new information technologies and considering the networks field evolution, the data transmission has evolved towards a multipoint communication, which can simultaneously transmit information from a sender to multiple receivers. This article proposes the failures criticality assessment of a multipoint communication network, integrates a database of network failures and their quantifications. The proposed approach is validated on a case study and the final result allows having the criticality matrix associated with failures on the considered network, giving the identification of acceptable risks.

Keywords: Dependability, failure, multipoint network, criticality matrix.

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