Search results for: weed infestation forecast

Authors: Udomporn Pangnakorn, Sombat Chuenchooklin

Abstract:

Effect of the biopesticide from entomopathogenic nematode (Steinernema thailandensis n. sp.), bacteria ISR (Pseudomonas fluorescens), wood vinegar and fermented organic substances from plants: (neem Azadirachta indica + citronella grass Cymbopogon nardus Rendle + bitter bush Chromolaena odorata L.) were tested on culantro (Eryngium foetidum L.). The biopesticide was carried out for reduction infestation of the major insects pest (whitefly Bemisia tabaci (Gennadius)). The experimental plots were located at farmers’ farm in Tumbol Takhian Luean, Nakhon Sawan Province, Thailand. This study was undertaken during the drought season (lately November to May). The populations of whitefly were observed and recorded every hour up to 3 hours with insect net and yellow sticky traps after the treatments were applied. The results showed that bacteria ISR was the highest effectiveness for control whitefly infestation on culantro, the whitefly numbers on insect net were 12.5, 10.0, and 7.5 after spraying in 1hr, 2hr, and 3hr, respectively. While the whitefly on yellow sticky traps showed 15.0, 10.0, and 10.0 after spraying in 1hr, 2hr, and 3hr, respectively. Furthermore, overall the experiments showed that treatment of bacteria ISR found the average whitefly numbers only 8.06 and 11.0 on insect net and sticky tap respectively, followed by treatment of nematode found the average whitefly with 9.87 and 11.43 on the insect net and sticky tap, respectively. Therefore, the application of biopesticide from entomopathogenic nematodes, bacteria ISR, organic substances from plants and wood vinegar combined with natural enemies is the alternative method of Integrated Pest Management (IPM) for against infestation of whitefly.

Keywords: whitefly (Bemisia tabaci Gennadius), culantro (Eryngium foetidum L.), entomopathogenic nematode (Steinernema thailandensis n. sp.), bacteria ISR (Pseudomonas fluorescens), wood vinegar, fermented organic substances

Procedia PDF Downloads 336

Authors: Muhammad Haroon, LI Xiangju

Abstract:

C. communis L. is an important weed of many crop, but very little information about the adaptation strategies of C. communis L. biotypes under drought stress. We investigated five biotypes of C. communis L under drought stress to identify the adaptation mechanism. The expression of drought stress related genes (DRS1, EREB and HRB1) was up-regulated in biotypes, while in some biotypes their expression was down regulated. All five biotypes can thus regulate water balance to consume less water to maintain their status under drought stress condition. This result concluded that C. communis L. biotypes can survive longer under drought stress condition. Weed scientist should seek more effective management strategies to deal with C. communis L.

Keywords: C. communis, biotypes, drought stress, gene expression

Procedia PDF Downloads 121

Authors: Fatemeh Rouhi, Hadi Nassiri

Abstract:

Earning forecast is a key element in economic decisions but there are some situations, such as conflicts of interest in financial reporting, complexity and lack of direct access to information has led to the phenomenon of information asymmetry among individuals within the organization and external investors and creditors that appear. The adverse selection and moral hazard in the investor's decision and allows direct assessment of the difficulties associated with data by users makes. In this regard, the role of trustees in corporate governance disclosure is crystallized that includes controls and procedures to ensure the lack of movement in the interests of the company's management and move in the direction of maximizing shareholder and company value. Therefore, the earning forecast of companies in the capital market and the need to identify factors influencing this study was an attempt to make relationship between moral hazard and corporate governance with earning forecast quality companies operating in the capital market and its impact on Earnings Forecasts quality by the company to be established. Getting inspiring from the theoretical basis of research, two main hypotheses and sub-hypotheses are presented in this study, which have been examined on the basis of available models, and with the use of Panel-Data method, and at the end, the conclusion has been made at the assurance level of 95% according to the meaningfulness of the model and each independent variable. In examining the models, firstly, Chow Test was used to specify either Panel Data method should be used or Pooled method. Following that Housman Test was applied to make use of Random Effects or Fixed Effects. Findings of the study show because most of the variables are positively associated with moral hazard with earnings forecasts quality, with increasing moral hazard, earning forecast quality companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange is increasing. Among the variables related to corporate governance, board independence variables have a significant relationship with earnings forecast accuracy and earnings forecast bias but the relationship between board size and earnings forecast quality is not statistically significant.

Keywords: corporate governance, earning forecast quality, moral hazard, financial sciences

Procedia PDF Downloads 287

Authors: Yeliz Ekinci, Melis Koyuncu

Abstract:

Successful planning of solid waste management systems requires successful prediction of the amount of solid waste generated in an area. Waste management planning can protect the environment and human health, hence it is tremendously important for countries. The lack of information in waste generation can cause many environmental and health problems. Turkey is a country that plans to join European Union, hence, solid waste management is one of the most significant criteria that should be handled in order to be a part of this community. Solid waste management system requires a good forecast of solid waste generation. Thus, this study aims to forecast solid waste generation in Turkey. Artificial Neural Network and Linear Regression models will be used for this aim. Many models will be run and the best one will be selected based on some predetermined performance measures.

Keywords: forecast, solid waste generation, solid waste management, Turkey

Procedia PDF Downloads 467

Authors: Efe Ogidiaka-Obende, Gabriel C. C. Ndinwa, John Atadiose, Ewoma O. Oduma

Abstract:

Water hyacinth (Eichhornia crassipes), which is a native of South America, is believed to have found its way into Nigeria waters through Pot-Novo creek, Benin Republic, in September 1984. This study attempts to review the impacts, challenges, and prospects of water hyacinths in Nigeria's coastal waters. Water hyacinth possesses a very high proliferation rate, and its infestation in Nigeria's coastal waters poses severe problems to the fishing, recreational, transportation, and health sector, amongst other activities. The weed has been reported to disrupt aquatic ecosystems, clog waterways, and create associated problems with water supply, irrigation, and drainage. To curb this menace, a huge amount of money is used yearly for its management, which is not sustainable. There is, however, a positive twist to this plant as it has the potential to be used as fertilizers, feed for fish, craft materials, biogas, and many more. Due to its high population and related economic importance and implications in Nigeria's coastal waters, it is highly recommended that more research works be carried out on the of making optimal use of this plant.

Keywords: waste to wealth, environmental pollution, water hyacinth, biogas, sustainable development goals

Procedia PDF Downloads 60

Authors: Helene Thieblemont, Fariborz Haghighat

Abstract:

Energy storage systems play a crucial role in decreasing building energy consumption during peak periods and expand the use of renewable energies in buildings. To provide a high building thermal performance, the energy storage system has to be properly controlled to insure a good energy performance while maintaining a satisfactory thermal comfort for building’s occupant. In the case of passive discharge storages, defining in advance the required amount of energy is required to avoid overheating in the building. Consequently, anticipatory supervisory control strategies have been developed forecasting future energy demand and production to coordinate systems. Anticipatory supervisory control strategies are based on some predictions, mainly of the weather forecast. However, if the forecasted hourly outdoor temperature may be found online with a high accuracy, solar radiations predictions are most of the time not available online. To estimate them, this paper proposes an advanced approach based on the forecast of weather conditions. Several methods to correlate hourly weather conditions forecast to real hourly solar radiations are compared. Results show that using weather conditions forecast allows estimating with an acceptable accuracy solar radiations of the next day. Moreover, this technique allows obtaining hourly data that may be used for building models. As a result, this solar radiation prediction model may help to implement model-based controller as Model Predictive Control.

Keywords: anticipatory control, model predictive control, solar radiation forecast, thermal storage

Procedia PDF Downloads 245

Authors: Prachi Desai, Ankita Gandhi, Mitali Acharya

Abstract:

Rainfall forecast is mainly used for predictions of rainfall in a specified area and determining their future rainfall conditions. Rainfall is always a global issue as it affects all major aspects of one's life. Agricultural, fisheries, forestry, tourism industry and other industries are widely affected by these conditions. The studies have resulted in insufficient availability of water resources and an increase in water demand in the near future. We already have a new forecast system that uses the deep Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) to forecast monthly rainfall and climate changes. We have also compared CNN against Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). Machine Learning techniques that are used in rainfall predictions include ARIMA Model, ANN, LR, SVM etc. The dataset on which we are experimenting is gathered online over the year 1901 to 20118. Test results have suggested more realistic improvements than conventional rainfall forecasts.

Keywords: ANN, CNN, supervised learning, machine learning, deep learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 149

Authors: Ibrahim Sani, Suleiman Mohammed., Salisu Sulaiman, Aminu Musa

Abstract:

The fall army worm (FAW), Spodoptera frugiperda (J. E. Smith) (Lepidoptera, Noctuidae) has recently become one of the major threats to maize production in the world. It is native to tropical and subtropical America and began to spread to many African and a few Asian Countries. A survey for the observation of infestation and collection of fall armyworm was conducted in field planted with maize in the northern part of Katsina state. Eggs and immature stages were collected, place in a plastic container and brought to the laboratory for observation and study of developmental stages. FAW was identified based on the morphological characteristics, i.e. the “Y” inverted shape on the head capsule and the patterns of black spots on the abdominal segments (square and trapezoidal forms). Different growing stage of maize are affected by fall armyworm, but the damage is greatest during the early growing phase of corn. Heavy infestation on the leaves also cause defoliation. Four developmental stages (eggs larvae, pupae and adults) of the FAW were studied when fed with young corn under laboratory conditions. Furthermore, effective scouting or monitoring of FAW could be practice at early stage of growth of maize.

Keywords: infestation, katsina, maize, fall armyworm

Procedia PDF Downloads 27

Authors: Udomporn Pangnakorn, Settawut Prasatporn, Sombat Chuenchooklin

Abstract:

The effect of biopesticide on growth, yield and pest infestation of maize (Zea mays Linn.) (variety DK 6818) was evaluated during the drought season. The experimental plots were located at research station of Faculty of Agriculture, Natural Resources and Environment, Naresuan University, Phitsanulok, Thailand. The extracted substance from plants was evaluated in the plots in 4 treatments: 1) water as control; 2) bitter bush (Chromolaena odorata L.); 3) neem (Azadirachta indica A. Juss), 4) golden shower (Cassia fistula Linn.). The experiment was followed a Randomized Complete Block Design (RCBD) with 4 treatments and 4 replications per treatment. The results showed that golden shower gave the highest growth of maize in term of height (203.29 cm), followed by neem and bitter bush with average height of 202.66 cm and 191.66 cm respectively with significance different. But neem treatment given significantly higher average of yield component in term of length, width, and weight of pod corn with 18.89 cm 13.91 cm and 166.46 g respectively. Also, treatment of neem showed the highest harvested yield at 284.06 kg/ha followed by the golden shower and bitter bush with harvested yield at 245.86 kg/ha and 235.52 kg/ha respectively. Additionally, treatment of neem and golden shower were the highest effectiveness for reducing insects pest infestation of maize: corn leaf aphid Rhopalosiphum maidis Fitch, corn borer Ostrinia fumacalis Guenee and corn armyworm Mythimna separata Walker. The treatment of neem, golden shower, and bitter bush given reduction insect infestation on maize with leaves area were infested at 5,412 mm², 6,827 mm² and 8,910 mm² respectively with significance different when compared to control.

Keywords: maize, Zea mays Linn., biopesticide, bitter bush, Chromolaena odorata L.), neem, Azadirachta indica A. Juss, golden shower, Cassia fistula Linn.

Procedia PDF Downloads 280

Authors: Abir Soltani, Moez Amri, Jouda Mediouni Ben Jemâa

Abstract:

In North Africa, the chickpea leafminer Liriomyza cicerina (Rondani) (Diptera: Agromizidae) is one of the major damaging pests affecting both spring and winter-planted chickpea. Damage is caused by the larvae which feed in the leaf mesophyll tissue, resulting in desiccation and premature leaf fall that can cause severe yield losses. In the present work, the distribution and the seasonal phenology of L. cicerina were studied on two chickpea varieties; a winter variety Beja 1 which is the most cultivated variety in Tunisia and a spring-sown variety Amdoun 1. The experiment was conducted during the cropping season 2015-2016. In the experimental research station Oued Beja, in the Beja region (36°44’N; 9°13’E). To determine the distribution and seasonal phenology of L. cicerina in both studied varieties Beja 1 and Amdoun 1, respectively 100 leave samples (50 from the top and 50 from the base) were collected from 10 chickpea plants randomly chosen from each field. The sampling was done during three development stages (i) 20-25 days before flowering (BFL), (ii) at flowering (FL) and (ii) at pod setting stage (PS). For each plant, leaves were checked from the base till the upper ones for the insect infestation progress into the plant in correlation with chickpea growth Stages. Fly adult populations were monitored using 8 yellow sticky traps together with weekly leaves sampling in each field. The traps were placed 70 cm above ground. Trap catches were collected once a week over the cropping season period. Results showed that L. cicerina distribution varied among both studied chickpea varieties and crop development stage all with seasonal phenology. For the winter chickpea variety Beja 1, infestation levels of 2%, 10.3% and 20.3% were recorded on the bases plant part for BFL, FL and PS stages respectively against 0%, 8.1% and 45.8% recorded for the upper plant part leaves for the same stages respectively. For the spring-sown variety Amdoun 1 the infestation level reached 71.5% during flowering stage. Population dynamic study revealed that for Beja 1 variety, L. cicerina accomplished three annual generations over the cropping season period with the third one being the most important with a capture level of 85 adult/trap by mid-May against a capture level of 139 adult/trap at the end May recorded for cv. Amdoun 1. Also, results showed that L. cicerina field infestation dispersal depends on the field part and on the crop growth stage. The border areas plants were more infested than the plants placed inside the plots. For cv. Beja 1, border areas infestations were 11%, 28% and 91.2% for BFL, FL and PS stages respectively, against 2%, 10.73% and 69.2% recorded on the on the inside plot plants during the for the same growth stages respectively. For the cv. Amdoun1 infestation level of 90% was observed on the border plants at FL and PS stages against an infestation level less than 65% recorded inside the plot.

Keywords: leaf miner, liriomyza cicerina, chickpea, distribution, seasonal phenology, Tunisia

Procedia PDF Downloads 252

Authors: Noureddine Adjlane, Nizar Haddad

Abstract:

Deformed Wing Virus (DWV) is considered as the most prevalent virus that dangerous the honeybee health worldwide today. In this study we aimed to evaluate the impact of the virus on honeybees (Apis mellifera intermissa) mortality in Algeria and we conducted the study on samples collected from the central area in the country. We used PCR for the diagnoses of the (DWV) in the diagnosis. The results had shown a high infestation in the sampled colonies and it represented 42% of the total sample. In this study, we found a clear role of both Varroa destructor mite and DWV on hive mortality in the experimented apiary. Further studies need to be conducted in order to give soled recommendations to the beekeepers, decision makers and stockholders of the Algerian beekeeping sector.

Keywords: honey bee, DWV, Varroa destructor, mortality, prevalence, infestation

Procedia PDF Downloads 422

Authors: Ahmad Awajan, Sadam Al Wadi

Abstract:

In this study, a hybrid method based on Empirical Mode Decomposition and Holt-Winter (EMD-HW) is used to forecast Amman stock market data. First, the data are decomposed by EMD method into Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs) and residual components. Then, all components are forecasted by HW technique. Finally, forecasting values are aggregated together to get the forecasting value of stock market data. Empirical results showed that the EMD- HW outperform individual forecasting models. The strength of this EMD-HW lies in its ability to forecast non-stationary and non- linear time series without a need to use any transformation method. Moreover, EMD-HW has a relatively high accuracy comparing with eight existing forecasting methods based on the five forecast error measures.

Keywords: Holt-Winter method, empirical mode decomposition, forecasting, time series

Procedia PDF Downloads 96

Authors: Roihatul Mutiah, Sukardiman, Aty Widyawaruyanti

Abstract:

Calotropis gigantiea (L.) R. Br (Apocynaceae) commonly called as “Biduri” or “giant milk weed” is a well-known weed to many cultures for treating various disorders. Several studies reported that C.gigantea roots has anticancer activity. The main aim of this research was to isolate and identify an active marker compound of C.gigantea roots for quality control purpose of its extract in the development as anticancer natural product. The isolation methods was bioactivity guided column chromatography, TLC, and HPLC. Evaluated anticancer activity of there substances using MTT assay methods. Identification structure active compound by UV, 1HNMR, 13CNMR, HMBC, HMQC spectral and other references. The result showed that the marker active compound was identical as Calotropin.

Keywords: calotropin, Calotropis gigantea, anticancer, marker active

Procedia PDF Downloads 297

Authors: Okwara O. S., Osunsina I. O. O., Pitan O. R., Afolabi C. G.

Abstract:

Rice (Oryza sativa L.) belongs to the family poaceae and has become the most popular food. Globally, this crop is been faced with the menace of vertebrate pests, of which birds and rodents are the most implicated. The study avian and rodents’ infestations and the evaluation of attributable losses was carried out in 2020 and 2021 with the objectives of identifying the types of bird and rodent species associated with lowland rice and to determine the infestation levels, damage intensity, and the crop loss induced by these pests. The experiment was laid out in a split plot arrangement fitted into a Randomized Complete Block Design (RCBD), with the main plots being protected and unprotected groups and the sub-plots being four rice varieties, Ofada, WITA-4, NERICA L-34, and Arica-3. Data collection was done over a 16-week period, and the data obtained were transformed using square root transformation model before Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) was done at 5% probability level. The results showed the infestation levels of both birds and rodents across all the treatment means of thevarieties as not significantly different (p > 0.05) in both seasons. The damage intensity by these pests in both years were also not significantly different (p > 0.05) among the means of the varieties, which explains the diverse feeding nature of birds and rodents when it comes to infestations. The infestation level under the protected group was significantly lower (p < 0.05) than the infestation level recorded under the unprotected group.Consequently, an estimated crop loss of 91.94 % and 90.75 % were recorded in 2020 and 2021, respectively, andthe identified pest birds were Ploceus melanocephalus, Ploceus cuculatus, and Spermestes cucullatus. Conclusively, vertebrates pest cause damage to lowland rice which could result to a high percentage crop loss if left uncontrolled.

Keywords: pests, infestations, evaluation, losses, rodents, avian

Procedia PDF Downloads 85

Authors: Morten Stigaard Laursen, Rasmus Nyholm Jørgensen, Henrik Skov Midtiby, Anders Krogh Mortensen, Sanmohan Baby

Abstract:

This work contributes a statistical model and simulation framework yielding the best estimate possible for the potential herbicide reduction when using the MoDiCoVi algorithm all the while requiring a efficacy comparable to conventional spraying. In June 2013 a maize field located in Denmark were seeded. The field was divided into parcels which was assigned to one of two main groups: 1) Control, consisting of subgroups of no spray and full dose spraty; 2) MoDiCoVi algorithm subdivided into five different leaf cover thresholds for spray activation. In addition approximately 25% of the parcels were seeded with additional weeds perpendicular to the maize rows. In total 299 parcels were randomly assigned with the 28 different treatment combinations. In the statistical analysis, bootstrapping was used for balancing the number of replicates. The achieved potential herbicide savings was found to be 70% to 95% depending on the initial weed coverage. However additional field trials covering more seasons and locations are needed to verify the generalisation of these results. There is a potential for further herbicide savings as the time interval between the first and second spraying session was not long enough for the weeds to turn yellow, instead they only stagnated in growth.

Keywords: herbicide reduction, macrosprayer, weed crop discrimination, site-specific, sprayer boom

Procedia PDF Downloads 272

Authors: Amin AminiKhafri, James M. Dawson-Edwards, Ryan M. Simpson, Simaan M. AbouRizk

Abstract:

Earned value management (EVM) has been introduced as an integrated method to combine schedule, budget, and work breakdown structure (WBS). EVM provides various indices to demonstrate project performance including the cost performance index (CPI). CPI is also used to forecast final project cost at completion based on the cost performance during the project execution. Knowing the final project cost during execution can initiate corrective actions, which can enhance project outputs. CPI, however, is not constant during the project, and calculating the final project cost using a variable index is an inaccurate and challenging task for practitioners. Since CPI is based on the cumulative progress values and because of the learning curve effect, CPI variation dampens and stabilizes as project progress. Although various definitions for the CPI stability have been proposed in literature, many scholars have agreed upon the definition that considers a project as stable if the CPI at 20% completion varies less than 0.1 from the final CPI. While 20% completion point is recognized as the stability point for military development projects, construction projects stability have not been studied. In the current study, an empirical study was first conducted using construction project data to determine the stability point for construction projects. Early findings have demonstrated that a majority of construction projects stabilize towards completion (i.e., after 70% completion point). To investigate the effect of CPI stability on cost forecast accuracy, the correlation between CPI stability and project cost at completion forecast accuracy was also investigated. It was determined that as projects progress closer towards completion, variation of the CPI decreases and final project cost forecast accuracy increases. Most projects were found to have 90% accuracy in the final cost forecast at 70% completion point, which is inlined with findings from the CPI stability findings. It can be concluded that early stabilization of the project CPI results in more accurate cost at completion forecasts.

Keywords: cost performance index, earned value management, empirical study, final project cost

Procedia PDF Downloads 129

Authors: Amin Salighehdar, Ziwen Ye, Mingzhe Liu, Ionut Florescu, Alan F. Blumberg

Abstract:

Storm surge is an abnormal water level caused by a storm. Accurate prediction of a storm surge is a challenging problem. Researchers developed various ensemble modeling techniques to combine several individual forecasts to produce an overall presumably better forecast. There exist some simple ensemble modeling techniques in literature. For instance, Model Output Statistics (MOS), and running mean-bias removal are widely used techniques in storm surge prediction domain. However, these methods have some drawbacks. For instance, MOS is based on multiple linear regression and it needs a long period of training data. To overcome the shortcomings of these simple methods, researchers propose some advanced methods. For instance, ENSURF (Ensemble SURge Forecast) is a multi-model application for sea level forecast. This application creates a better forecast of sea level using a combination of several instances of the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). An ensemble dressing method is based on identifying best member forecast and using it for prediction. Our contribution in this paper can be summarized as follows. First, we investigate whether the ensemble models perform better than any single forecast. Therefore, we need to identify the single best forecast. We present a methodology based on a simple Bayesian selection method to select the best single forecast. Second, we present several new and simple ways to construct ensemble models. We use correlation and standard deviation as weights in combining different forecast models. Third, we use these ensembles and compare with several existing models in literature to forecast storm surge level. We then investigate whether developing a complex ensemble model is indeed needed. To achieve this goal, we use a simple average (one of the simplest and widely used ensemble model) as benchmark. Predicting the peak level of Surge during a storm as well as the precise time at which this peak level takes place is crucial, thus we develop a statistical platform to compare the performance of various ensemble methods. This statistical analysis is based on root mean square error of the ensemble forecast during the testing period and on the magnitude and timing of the forecasted peak surge compared to the actual time and peak. In this work, we analyze four hurricanes: hurricanes Irene and Lee in 2011, hurricane Sandy in 2012, and hurricane Joaquin in 2015. Since hurricane Irene developed at the end of August 2011 and hurricane Lee started just after Irene at the beginning of September 2011, in this study we consider them as a single contiguous hurricane event. The data set used for this study is generated by the New York Harbor Observing and Prediction System (NYHOPS). We find that even the simplest possible way of creating an ensemble produces results superior to any single forecast. We also show that the ensemble models we propose generally have better performance compared to the simple average ensemble technique.

Keywords: Bayesian learning, ensemble model, statistical analysis, storm surge prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 284

Authors: Hilal Bulut, Serap Saler

Abstract:

Protozoan ciliate epibionts infestation on zooplankton in Cip Dam Lake were studied seasonally, between spring 2014-winter 2015 The ciliates peritrich Epibiont Epistylis sp. (Protozoa, Ciliophora) was found as colony form on some individuals of different zooplanktonic groups, especially rotifers and copepods. Totally 23 zooplankton species (19 species from Rotifera, 3 species from Cladocera and 1 species from Copepoda in Cip Dam Lake were investigated. Rotifers were the most important zooplanktonic group (82.7 % of total) and the taxa observed with epibionts were Keratella, Polyarthra, and Brachionus. The highest densities of infected zooplankton was observed in winter (14265 ind.m-3), the lowest densities of infected zooplankton was found in summer (3056 ind.m-). Rotifers were most infected groups with 75% in this study. Epistylis sp. was found on three species of rotifers and one copepod species. Infestation of Epistylis sp. has been registered for the first time in Cip Dam Lake.

Keywords: copepoda, epibiosis, peritrich, rotifera

Procedia PDF Downloads 221

Authors: Yen Chia-Ju, Cheng Ding-Ruei

Abstract:

This study took case office building as subject and explored the responsive work order repair request of facilities and equipment in offices and public areas by gray theory, with the purpose of providing for future related office building owners, executive managers, property management companies, mechanical and electrical companies as reference for deciding and assessing forecast model. Important conclusions of this study are summarized as follows according to the study findings: 1. Grey Relational Analysis discusses the importance of facilities repair number of six categories, namely, power systems, building systems, water systems, air conditioning systems, fire systems and manpower dispatch in order. In terms of facilities maintenance importance are power systems, building systems, water systems, air conditioning systems, manpower dispatch and fire systems in order. 2. GM (1,N) and regression method took maintenance hours as dependent variables and repair number, leased area and tenants number as independent variables and conducted single month forecast based on 12 data from January to December 2011. The mean absolute error and average accuracy of GM (1,N) from verification results were 6.41% and 93.59%; the mean absolute error and average accuracy of regression model were 4.66% and 95.34%, indicating that they have highly accurate forecast capability.

Keywords: rey theory, forecast model, Taipei 101, office buildings, property management, facilities, equipment

Procedia PDF Downloads 408

Authors: Matteo Bonaventura, Giancarlo Giudici

Abstract:

This paper analyses the valuation process of companies listed on the Italian Exchange in the period 2000-2009 at their Initial Public Offering (IPO). One the most common valuation techniques declared in the IPO prospectus to determine the offer price is the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method. We develop a ‘reverse engineering’ model to discover the short term profitability implied in the offer prices. We show that there is a significant optimistic bias in the estimation of future profitability compared to ex-post actual realization and the mean forecast error is substantially large. Yet we show that such error characterizes also the estimations carried out by analysts evaluating non-IPO companies. The forecast error is larger the faster has been the recent growth of the company, the higher is the leverage of the IPO firm, the more companies issued equity on the market. IPO companies generally exhibit better operating performance before the listing, with respect to comparable listed companies, while after the flotation they do not perform significantly different in term of return on invested capital. Pre-IPO book building activity plays a significant role in partially reducing the forecast error and revising expectations, while the market price of the first day of trading does not contain information for further reducing forecast errors.

Keywords: initial public offerings, DCF, book building, post-IPO profitability drop

Procedia PDF Downloads 318

Authors: Juergen Junk, Franz Ronellenfitsch, Michael Eickermann

Abstract:

An appropriate weed management in autumn is a prerequisite for an economically successful harvest in the following year. In Luxembourg oilseed rape, wheat and barley is sown from August until October, accompanied by a chemical weed control with soil active herbicides, depending on the state of the weeds and the meteorological conditions. Based on regular ground and surface water-analysis, high levels of contamination by transformation products of respective herbicide compounds have been found in Luxembourg. The most ideal conditions for incorporating soil active herbicides are single rain events. Weed control may be reduced if application is made when weeds are under drought stress or if repeated light rain events followed by dry spells, because the herbicides tend to bind tightly to the soil particles. These effects have been frequently reported for Luxembourg throughout the last years. In the framework of a multisite long-term field experiment (EFFO) weed monitoring, plants observations and corresponding meteorological measurements were conducted. Long-term time series (1947-2016) from the SYNOP station Findel-Airport (WMO ID = 06590) showed a decrease in the number of days with precipitation. As the total precipitation amount has not significantly changed, this indicates a trend towards rain events with higher intensity. All analyses are based on decades (10-day periods) for September and October of each individual year. To assess the future meteorological conditions for Luxembourg, two different approaches were applied. First, multi-model ensembles from the CORDEX experiments (spatial resolution ~12.5 km; transient projections until 2100) were analysed for two different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP8.5 and RCP4.5), covering the time span from 2005 until 2100. The multi-model ensemble approach allows for the quantification of the uncertainties and also to assess the differences between the two emission scenarios. Second, to assess smaller scale differences within the country a high resolution model projection using the COSMO-LM model was used (spatial resolution 1.3 km). To account for the higher computational demands, caused by the increased spatial resolution, only 10-year time slices have been simulated (reference period 1991-2000; near future 2041-2050 and far future 2091-2100). Statistically significant trends towards higher air temperatures, +1.6 K for September (+5.3 K far future) and +1.3 K for October (+4.3 K), were predicted for the near future compared to the reference period. Precipitation simultaneously decreased by 9.4 mm (September) and 5.0 mm (October) for the near future and -49 mm (September) and -10 mm (October) in the far future. Beside the monthly values also decades were analyzed for the two future time periods of the CLM model. For all decades of September and October the number of days with precipitation decreased for the projected near and far future. Changes in meteorological variables such as air temperature and precipitation did already induce transformations in weed societies (composition, late-emerging etc.) of arable ecosystems in Europe. Therefore, adaptations of agronomic practices as well as effective weed control strategies must be developed to maintain crop yield.

Keywords: CORDEX projections, dry spells, ensembles, weed management

Procedia PDF Downloads 206

Authors: Josip Vasilj, Petar Sarajcev, Damir Jakus

Abstract:

One of the major difficulties introduced with wind power penetration is the inherent uncertainty in production originating from uncertain wind conditions. This uncertainty impacts many different aspects of power system operation, especially the balancing power requirements. For this reason, in power system development planing, it is necessary to evaluate the potential uncertainty in future wind power generation. For this purpose, simulation models are required, reproducing the performance of wind power forecasts. This paper presents a wind power forecast error simulation models which are based on the stochastic process simulation. Proposed models capture the most important statistical parameters recognized in wind power forecast error time series. Furthermore, two distinct models are presented based on data availability. First model uses wind speed measurements on potential or existing wind power plant locations, while the seconds model uses statistical distribution of wind speeds.

Keywords: wind power, uncertainty, stochastic process, Monte Carlo simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 449

Authors: Namwinwelbere Dabire, Eugene C. Ezin, Adandedji M. Firmin

Abstract:

The prediction of hydrological flows (rainfall-depth or rainfall-discharge) is becoming increasingly important in the management of hydrological risks such as floods. In this study, the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network, a state-of-the-art algorithm dedicated to time series, is applied to predict the daily water level of Nokoue Lake in Benin. This paper aims to provide an effective and reliable method enable of reproducing the future daily water level of Nokoue Lake, which is influenced by a combination of two phenomena: rainfall and river flow (runoff from the Ouémé River, the Sô River, the Porto-Novo lagoon, and the Atlantic Ocean). Performance analysis based on the forecasting horizon indicates that LSTM can predict the water level of Nokoué Lake up to a forecast horizon of t+10 days. Performance metrics such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), coefficient of correlation (R²), Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) agree on a forecast horizon of up to t+3 days. The values of these metrics remain stable for forecast horizons of t+1 days, t+2 days, and t+3 days. The values of R² and NSE are greater than 0.97 during the training and testing phases in the Nokoué Lake basin. Based on the evaluation indices used to assess the model's performance for the appropriate forecast horizon of water level in the Nokoué Lake basin, the forecast horizon of t+3 days is chosen for predicting future daily water levels.

Keywords: forecasting, long short-term memory cell, recurrent artificial neural network, Nokoué lake

Procedia PDF Downloads 30

Authors: Deepa Das, Susmita Das

Abstract:

Cognitive Radio (CR) is an emerging technology to combat the spectrum scarcity issues. This is achieved by consistently sensing the spectrum, and detecting the under-utilized frequency bands without causing undue interference to the primary user (PU). In soft decision fusion (SDF) based cooperative spectrum sensing, various evolutionary algorithms have been discussed, which optimize the weight coefficient vector for maximizing the detection performance. In this paper, we propose the hybrid invasive weed optimization and particle swarm optimization (IWO/PSO) algorithm as a fast and global optimization method, which improves the detection probability with a lesser sensing time. Then, the efficiency of this algorithm is compared with the standard invasive weed optimization (IWO), particle swarm optimization (PSO), genetic algorithm (GA) and other conventional SDF based methods on the basis of convergence and detection probability.

Keywords: cognitive radio, spectrum sensing, soft decision fusion, GA, PSO, IWO, hybrid IWO/PSO

Procedia PDF Downloads 426

Authors: Qais H. Alsafasfeh

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to provide a forecast of the peak demand for the next 15 years for electrical distribution companies. The proposed methodology provides both the peak demand and its location for the next 15 years. This paper describes the Spatial Load Forecasting model used, the information provided by electrical distribution company in Jordan, the workflow followed, the parameters used and the assumptions made to run the model. The aim of this paper is to provide a forecast of the peak demand for the next 15 years for electrical distribution companies. The proposed methodology provides both the peak demand and its location for the next 15 years. This paper describes the Spatial Load Forecasting model used, the information provided by electrical distribution company in Jordan, the workflow followed, the parameters used and the assumptions made to run the model.

Keywords: load forecast, peak demand, spatial load, electrical distribution

Procedia PDF Downloads 460

Authors: Girish Chavadappanavar

Abstract:

The impact of climate on agriculture could result in problems with food security and may threaten the livelihood activities upon which much of the population depends. In the present study, the development of a statistical yield forecast model has been carried out for sugarcane production over Belagavi district, Karnataka using weather variables of crop growing season and past observed yield data for the period of 1971 to 2010. The study shows that this type of statistical yield forecast model could efficiently forecast yield 5 weeks and even 10 weeks in advance of the harvest for sugarcane within an acceptable limit of error. The performance of the model in predicting yields at the district level for sugarcane crops is found quite satisfactory for both validation (2007 and 2008) as well as forecasting (2009 and 2010).In addition to the above study, the climate variability of the area has also been studied, and hence, the data series was tested for Mann Kendall Rank Statistical Test. The maximum and minimum temperatures were found to be significant with opposite trends (decreasing trend in maximum and increasing in minimum temperature), while the other three are found in significant with different trends (rainfall and evening time relative humidity with increasing trend and morning time relative humidity with decreasing trend).

Keywords: climate impact, regression analysis, yield and forecast model, sugar models

Procedia PDF Downloads 32

Authors: Yiseyon Hosu, Joseph Akande

Abstract:

Wheat is one of the most important staple food grains of human for centuries and is largely consumed in South Africa. It has a special place in the South African economy because of its significance in food security, trade, and industry. This paper modelled and forecast the production and consumption of wheat in South Africa in the time covid-19 and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war by using annual time series data from 1940–2021 based on the ARIMA models. Both the averaging forecast and selected models forecast indicate that there is the possibility of an increase with respect to production. The minimum and maximum growth in production is projected to be between 3million and 10 million tons, respectively. However, the model also forecast a possibility of depression with respect to consumption in South Africa. Although Covid-19 and the war between Ukraine and Russia, two major producers and exporters of global wheat, are having an effect on the volatility of the prices currently, the wheat production in South African is expected to increase and meat the consumption demand and provided an opportunity for increase export with respect to domestic consumption. The forecasting of production and consumption behaviours of major crops play an important role towards food and nutrition security, these findings can assist policymakers and will provide them with insights into the production and pricing policy of wheat in South Africa.

Keywords: ARIMA, food security, price volatility, staple food, South Africa

Procedia PDF Downloads 69

Authors: Uditi Dhakad, Baldev Ram, Chaman K. Jadon, R. K. Yadav, D. L. Yadav, Pratap Singh, Shalini Meena

Abstract:

A field experiment was conducted during Kharif 2021 at Agricultural Research Station, Kota, to evaluate the effect of different post-emergence herbicides applied to soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merrill] on soil enzymes activity viz. dehydrogenase, phosphatase, and urease. The soil of the experimental site was clay loam (vertisols) in texture and slightly alkaline in reaction with 7.7 pH. The soil was low in organic carbon (0.49%), medium in available nitrogen (210 kg/ha), phosphorus (23.5 P2O5 kg/ha), and high in potassium (400 K2O kg/ha) status. The results elucidated that no significant adverse effect on soil dehydrogenase, urease, and phosphatase activity was determined with the application of post-emergence herbicides over the untreated control. Two hands weeding at 20 and 40 DAS registered maximum dehydrogenase enzyme activity (0.329 μgTPF/g soil/d) closely followed by herbicides mixtures and sole herbicide while pre-emergence application of pendimethalin + imazethapyr 960 g a.i./ha and pendimethalin 1.0 kg a.i./ha significantly reduced dehydrogenase enzyme activity compared to control. Urease enzyme activity was not much affected under different weed control treatments and weedy checks. The treatments were found statistically non-significant, and values ranged between 1.16-1.25 μgNH4N/g soil/d. Phosphatase enzyme activity was also not influenced significantly due to various weed control treatments. Though maximum phosphatase enzyme activity (30.17 μgpnp/g soil/hr) was observed under two-hand weeding, followed by fomesafen + fluazifop-p-butyl 220 g a.i./ha. Herbicidal weed control measures did not influence the total bacteria, fungi, and actinomycetes population.

Keywords: dehydrogenase, phosphatase, post-emergence, soil enzymes, urease.

Procedia PDF Downloads 74

Authors: L. C. Nwosu, C. O. Adedire, M. O. Ashamo, E. O. Ogunwolu

Abstract:

The maize weevil, Sitophilus zeamais Motschulsky is a notorious pest of stored maize (Zea mays L.). The development of resistant maize varieties to manage weevils is a major breeding objective. The study investigated the parameters and mechanisms that confer resistance on a maize variety to S. zeamais infestation using twenty elite maize varieties. Detailed morphological, physical and chemical studies were conducted on whole-maize grain and the grain pericarp. Resistance was assessed at 33, 56, and 90 days post infestation using weevil mortality rate, weevil survival rate, percent grain damage, percent grain weight loss, weight of grain powder, oviposition rate and index of susceptibility as indices rated on a scale developed by the present study and on Dobie’s modified scale. Linear regression models that can predict maize grain damage in relation to the duration of storage were developed and applied. The resistant varieties identified particularly 2000 SYNEE-WSTR and TZBRELD3C5 with very high degree of resistance should be used singly or best in an integrated pest management system for the control of S. zeamais infestation in stored maize. Though increases in the physical properties of grain hardness, weight, length, and width increased varietal resistance, it was found that the bases of resistance were increased chemical attributes of phenolic acid, trypsin inhibitor and crude fibre while the bases of susceptibility were increased protein, starch, magnesium, calcium, sodium, phosphorus, manganese, iron, cobalt and zinc, the role of potassium requiring further investigation. Characters that conferred resistance on the test varieties were found distributed in the pericarp and the endosperm of the grains. Increases in grain phenolic acid, crude fibre, and trypsin inhibitor adversely and significantly affected the bionomics of the weevil on further assessment. The flat side of a maize grain at the point of penetration was significantly preferred by the weevil. Why the south area of the flattened side of a maize grain was significantly preferred by the weevil is clearly unknown, even though grain-face-type seemed to be a contributor in the study. The preference shown to the south area of the grain flat side has implications for seed viability. The study identified antibiosis, preference, antixenosis, and host evasion as the mechanisms of maize post harvest resistance to Sitophilus zeamais infestation.

Keywords: maize weevil, resistant, parameters, mechanisms, preference

Procedia PDF Downloads 282

Authors: Ashwinder K. Dhaliwal, G. P. S. Dhillon

Abstract:

Eucalyptus is one of the most important forest tree species that can tolerate and grow well on degraded and unfertile soils which are not suitable for other tree species. Besides this, these trees have a short rotation and good economic value. However, the gall inducing wasp Leptocybe invasa Fisher and La Salle has been reported from many countries throughout the world. The spread of L. invasa is of huge economic concern as more than 20,000 ha of young Eucalyptus trees have already been affected in southern states of India. The host plant resistance being the first line of defense against insect pests demands the screening of different germplasm source against L. invasa. Keeping this in view, fourteen different clones of Eucalyptus spp. were evaluated for their susceptibility to L. invasa from a replicated clonal trial planted at Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana. The degree of gall infestation was recorded from three plants of each clone in each replication. Three branches selected from the lower, middle and upper canopy of the trees were selected for recording the total number of galls induced by L. invasa. The statistical analysis was done as per the procedure laid down for completely randomised block design (CRBD), analysis of variance (ANOVA), critical difference (CD) and variance components using Proc GLM (SAS software 9.3, SAS Institute Ltd. U.S.A). All possible treatment means were compared with Duncan’s multiple range test (DMRT) at 1 % probability level. The results showed that the clones C-9, C-45 and C-42 were completely free from the infestation of L. invasa. However, there was minor infestation of L. invasa on C-2135, C-413, C-407, C-35, C-72 and C-37 clones. The clone C-6 was severely infested by L. invasa followed by C-11, C-12, F-316 and C-25 clones. The information generated by this study will be helpful for future breeding and use in afforestation programmes.

Keywords: eucalyptus clones, gall wasp, Leptocybe invasa, screening, susceptibility

Procedia PDF Downloads 191