Search results for: weather
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 767

Search results for: weather

227 Controlling Drone Flight Missions through Natural Language Processors Using Artificial Intelligence

Authors: Sylvester Akpah, Selasi Vondee

Abstract:

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) as they are also known, drones have attracted increasing attention in recent years due to their ubiquitous nature and boundless applications in the areas of communication, surveying, aerial photography, weather forecasting, medical delivery, surveillance amongst others. Operated remotely in real-time or pre-programmed, drones can fly autonomously or on pre-defined routes. The application of these aerial vehicles has successfully penetrated the world due to technological evolution, thus a lot more businesses are utilizing their capabilities. Unfortunately, while drones are replete with the benefits stated supra, they are riddled with some problems, mainly attributed to the complexities in learning how to master drone flights, collision avoidance and enterprise security. Additional challenges, such as the analysis of flight data recorded by sensors attached to the drone may take time and require expert help to analyse and understand. This paper presents an autonomous drone control system using a chatbot. The system allows for easy control of drones using conversations with the aid of Natural Language Processing, thus to reduce the workload needed to set up, deploy, control, and monitor drone flight missions. The results obtained at the end of the study revealed that the drone connected to the chatbot was able to initiate flight missions with just text and voice commands, enable conversation and give real-time feedback from data and requests made to the chatbot. The results further revealed that the system was able to process natural language and produced human-like conversational abilities using Artificial Intelligence (Natural Language Understanding). It is recommended that radio signal adapters be used instead of wireless connections thus to increase the range of communication with the aerial vehicle.

Keywords: artificial ntelligence, chatbot, natural language processing, unmanned aerial vehicle

Procedia PDF Downloads 117
226 A Damage Level Assessment Model for Extra High Voltage Transmission Towers

Authors: Huan-Chieh Chiu, Hung-Shuo Wu, Chien-Hao Wang, Yu-Cheng Yang, Ching-Ya Tseng, Joe-Air Jiang

Abstract:

Power failure resulting from tower collapse due to violent seismic events might bring enormous and inestimable losses. The Chi-Chi earthquake, for example, strongly struck Taiwan and caused huge damage to the power system on September 21, 1999. Nearly 10% of extra high voltage (EHV) transmission towers were damaged in the earthquake. Therefore, seismic hazards of EHV transmission towers should be monitored and evaluated. The ultimate goal of this study is to establish a damage level assessment model for EHV transmission towers. The data of earthquakes provided by Taiwan Central Weather Bureau serve as a reference and then lay the foundation for earthquake simulations and analyses afterward. Some parameters related to the damage level of each point of an EHV tower are simulated and analyzed by the data from monitoring stations once an earthquake occurs. Through the Fourier transform, the seismic wave is then analyzed and transformed into different wave frequencies, and the data would be shown through a response spectrum. With this method, the seismic frequency which damages EHV towers the most is clearly identified. An estimation model is built to determine the damage level caused by a future seismic event. Finally, instead of relying on visual observation done by inspectors, the proposed model can provide a power company with the damage information of a transmission tower. Using the model, manpower required by visual observation can be reduced, and the accuracy of the damage level estimation can be substantially improved. Such a model is greatly useful for health and construction monitoring because of the advantages of long-term evaluation of structural characteristics and long-term damage detection.

Keywords: damage level monitoring, drift ratio, fragility curve, smart grid, transmission tower

Procedia PDF Downloads 273
225 The Status of Precision Agricultural Technology Adoption on Row Crop Farms vs. Specialty Crop Farms

Authors: Shirin Ghatrehsamani

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Higher efficiency and lower environmental impact are the consequence of using advanced technology in farming. They also help to decrease yield variability by diminishing weather variability impact, optimizing nutrient and pest management as well as reducing competition from weeds. A better understanding of the pros and cons of applying technology and finding the main reason for preventing the utilization of the technology has a significant impact on developing technology adoption among farmers and producers in the digital agriculture era. The results from two surveys carried out in 2019 and 2021 were used to investigate whether the crop types had an impact on the willingness to utilize technology on the farms. The main focus of the questionnaire was on utilizing precision agriculture (PA) technologies among farmers in some parts of the united states. Collected data was analyzed to determine the practical application of various technologies. The survey results showed more similarities in the main reason not to use PA between the two crop types, but the present application of using technology in specialty crops is generally five times larger than in row crops. GPS receiver applications were reported similar for both types of crops. Lack of knowledge and high cost of data handling were cited as the main problems. The most significant difference was among using variable rate technology, which was 43% for specialty crops while was reported 0% for row crops. Pest scouting and mapping were commonly used for specialty crops, while they were rarely applied for row crops. Survey respondents found yield mapping, soil sampling map, and irrigation scheduling were more valuable for specialty crops than row crops in management decisions. About 50% of the respondents would like to share the PA data in both types of crops. Almost 50 % of respondents got their PA information from retailers in both categories, and as the second source, using extension agents were more common in specialty crops than row crops.

Keywords: precision agriculture, smart farming, digital agriculture, technology adoption

Procedia PDF Downloads 84
224 An Investigation into Root Causes of Sabotage and Vandalism of Pipes: A Major Environmental Effluence in Niger Delta, Nigeria

Authors: Oshienemen Albert

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Human’s activities could be pointed as the root cause of almost all environmental damages/ disasters as we contribute to the activities that are currently damaging the ozone layers (global warming), unusual environmental changes and extreme weather conditions (climate change) in recent times. Nigeria just as every other disaster-prone nation is faced with different types of disasters and environmental calamities, starting from terrorist displacement disasters, flood, drought and oil spill hazards. Oil spillage as an environmental disaster has great consequences not just on the environment but on human health, economy and the entire populace that might be involved, which deem necessary to look into the root causes of the incidents and how it can be curtailed. The different incidents of oil spillages and other oil production consequent on the environment is alarming in the Nigerian context and cannot be overemphasized without a critical investigation and synthesis. This paper investigates the root causes of environmental pollution induced by oil spill hazards from petroleum activities within Niger Delta communities of effects and detailed the potential solutions to reduce the causal factors and reoccurrence of the incidents. This study adopts a desk-based approach, interviews with key members of communities which consist of chiefs, youth leaders, and key women within the high environmental damaged communities. Also, Interviews were conducted with environmental expertise representatives from the oil and gas sectors and representatives from oil spill-related agency. Data were analyzed using thematic techniques. The study shows different influencing factors of sabotage and vandalism of oil facilities as such; marginalization, deprivation of resources utility and resource derivation principles were identified as major contributors to vandalism and sabotage act. The study proposed potential strategies to curtail the root causes of sabotage and vandalism as the major causes of environmental devastations in Nigeria.

Keywords: environment, oil spill hazards, Niger delta, Nigeria

Procedia PDF Downloads 161
223 Load Forecasting in Microgrid Systems with R and Cortana Intelligence Suite

Authors: F. Lazzeri, I. Reiter

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Energy production optimization has been traditionally very important for utilities in order to improve resource consumption. However, load forecasting is a challenging task, as there are a large number of relevant variables that must be considered, and several strategies have been used to deal with this complex problem. This is especially true also in microgrids where many elements have to adjust their performance depending on the future generation and consumption conditions. The goal of this paper is to present a solution for short-term load forecasting in microgrids, based on three machine learning experiments developed in R and web services built and deployed with different components of Cortana Intelligence Suite: Azure Machine Learning, a fully managed cloud service that enables to easily build, deploy, and share predictive analytics solutions; SQL database, a Microsoft database service for app developers; and PowerBI, a suite of business analytics tools to analyze data and share insights. Our results show that Boosted Decision Tree and Fast Forest Quantile regression methods can be very useful to predict hourly short-term consumption in microgrids; moreover, we found that for these types of forecasting models, weather data (temperature, wind, humidity and dew point) can play a crucial role in improving the accuracy of the forecasting solution. Data cleaning and feature engineering methods performed in R and different types of machine learning algorithms (Boosted Decision Tree, Fast Forest Quantile and ARIMA) will be presented, and results and performance metrics discussed.

Keywords: time-series, features engineering methods for forecasting, energy demand forecasting, Azure Machine Learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 272
222 Computational Fluid Dynamics Simulation of a Boiler Outlet Header Constructed of Inconel Alloy 740H

Authors: Sherman Ho, Ahmed Cherif Megri

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Headers play a critical role in conveying steam to regulate heating system temperatures. While various materials like steel grades 91 and 92 have been traditionally used for pipes, this research proposes the use of a robust and innovative material, INCONEL Alloy 740H. Boilers in power plant configurations are exposed to cycling conditions due to factors such as daily, seasonal, and yearly variations in weather. These cycling conditions can lead to the deterioration of headers, which are vital components with intricate geometries. Header failures result in substantial financial losses from repair costs and power plant shutdowns, along with significant public inconveniences such as the loss of heating and hot water. To address this issue and seek solutions, a mechanical analysis, as well as a structural analysis, are recommended. Transient analysis to predict heat transfer conditions is of paramount importance, as the direction of heat transfer within the header walls and the passing steam can vary based on the location of interest, load, and operating conditions. The geometry and material of the header are also crucial design factors, and the choice of pipe material depends on its usage. In this context, the heat transfer coefficient plays a vital role in header design and analysis. This research employs ANSYS Fluent, a numerical simulation program, to understand header behavior, predict heat transfer, and analyze mechanical phenomena within the header. Transient simulations are conducted to investigate parameters like heat transfer coefficient, pressure loss coefficients, and heat flux, with the results used to optimize header design.

Keywords: CFD, header, power plant, heat transfer coefficient, simulation using experimental data

Procedia PDF Downloads 32
221 Long-Range Transport of Biomass Burning Aerosols over South America: A Case Study in the 2019 Amazon Rainforest Wildfires Season

Authors: Angel Liduvino Vara-Vela, Dirceu Luis Herdies, Debora Souza Alvim, Eder Paulo Vendrasco, Silvio Nilo Figueroa, Jayant Pendharkar, Julio Pablo Reyes Fernandez

Abstract:

Biomass-burning episodes are quite common in the central Amazon rainforest and represent a dominant source of aerosols during the dry season, between August and October. The increase in the occurrence of fires in 2019 in the world’s largest biomes has captured the attention of the international community. In particular, a rare and extreme smoke-related event occurred in the afternoon of Monday, August 19, 2019, in the most populous city in the Western Hemisphere, the São Paulo Metropolitan Area (SPMA), located in southeastern Brazil. The sky over the SPMA suddenly blackened, with the day turning into night, as reported by several news media around the world. In order to clarify whether or not the smoke that plunged the SPMA into sudden darkness was related to wildfires in the Amazon rainforest region, a set of 48-hour simulations over South America were performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model at 20 km horizontal resolution, on a daily basis, during the period from August 16 to August 19, 2019. The model results were satisfactorily compared against satellite-based data products and in situ measurements collected from air quality monitoring sites. Although a very strong smoke transport coming from the Amazon rainforest was observed in the middle of the afternoon on August 19, its impact on air quality over the SPMA took place in upper levels far above the surface, where, conversely, low air pollutant concentrations were observed.

Keywords: Amazon rainforest, biomass burning aerosols, São Paulo metropolitan area, WRF-Chem model

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220 Collective Potential: A Network of Acupuncture Interventions for Flood Resilience

Authors: Sachini Wickramanayaka

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The occurrence of natural disasters has increased in an alarming rate in recent times due to escalating effects of climate change. One such natural disaster that has continued to grow in frequency and intensity is ‘flooding’, adversely affecting communities around the globe. This is an exploration on how architecture can intervene and facilitate in preserving communities in the face of disaster, specifically in battling floods. ‘Resilience’ is one of the concepts that have been brought forward to be instilled in vulnerable communities to lower the impact from such disasters as a preventative and coping mechanism. While there are number of ways to achieve resilience in the built environment, this paper aims to create a synthesis between resilience and ‘urban acupuncture’. It will consider strengthening communities from within, by layering a network of relatively small-scale, fast phased interventions on pre-existing conventional flood preventative large-scale engineering infrastructure.By investigating ‘The Woodlands’, a planned neighborhood as a case study, this paper will argue that large-scale water management solutions while extremely important will not suffice as a single solution particularly during a time of frequent and extreme weather events. The different projects will try to synthesize non-architectural aspects such as neighborhood aspirations, requirements, potential and awareness into a network of architectural forms that would collectively increase neighborhood resiliency to floods. A mapping study of the selected study area will identify the problematic areas that flood in the neighborhood while the empirical data from previously implemented case studies will assess the success of each solution.If successful the different solutions for each of the identified problem areas will exhibithow flooding and water management can be integrated as part and parcel of daily life.

Keywords: acupuncture, architecture, resiliency, micro-interventions, neighborhood

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219 Climate Variability and Its Impacts on Rice (Oryza sativa) Productivity in Dass Local Government Area of Bauchi State, Nigeria

Authors: Auwal Garba, Rabiu Maijama’a, Abdullahi Muhammad Jalam

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Variability in climate has affected the agricultural production all over the globe. This concern has motivated important changes in the field of research during the last decade. Climate variability is believed to have declining effects towards rice production in Nigeria. This study examined climate variability and its impact on rice productivity in Dass Local Government Area, Bauchi State, by employing Linear Trend Model (LTM), analysis of variance (ANOVA) and regression analysis. Annual seasonal data of the climatic variables for temperature (min. and max), rainfall, and solar radiation from 1990 to 2015 were used. Results confirmed that 74.4% of the total variation in rice yield in the study area was explained by the changes in the independent variables. That is to say, temperature (minimum and maximum), rainfall, and solar radiation explained rice yield with 74.4% in the study area. Rising mean maximum temperature would lead to reduction in rice production while moderate increase in mean minimum temperature would be advantageous towards rice production, and the persistent rise in the mean maximum temperature, in the long run, will have more negatively affect rice production in the future. It is, therefore, important to promote agro-meteorological advisory services, which will be useful in farm planning and yield sustainability. Closer collaboration among the meteorologist and agricultural scientist is needed to increase the awareness about the existing database, crop weather models among others, with a view to reaping the full benefits of research on specific problems and sustainable yield management and also there should be a special initiative by the ADPs (State Agricultural Development Programme) towards promoting best agricultural practices that are resilient to climate variability in rice production and yield sustainability.

Keywords: climate variability, impact, productivity, rice

Procedia PDF Downloads 75
218 Improving Fingerprinting-Based Localization System Using Generative AI

Authors: Getaneh Berie Tarekegn

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A precise localization system is crucial for many artificial intelligence Internet of Things (AI-IoT) applications in the era of smart cities. Their applications include traffic monitoring, emergency alarming, environmental monitoring, location-based advertising, intelligent transportation, and smart health care. The most common method for providing continuous positioning services in outdoor environments is by using a global navigation satellite system (GNSS). Due to nonline-of-sight, multipath, and weather conditions, GNSS systems do not perform well in dense urban, urban, and suburban areas.This paper proposes a generative AI-based positioning scheme for large-scale wireless settings using fingerprinting techniques. In this article, we presented a semi-supervised deep convolutional generative adversarial network (S-DCGAN)-based radio map construction method for real-time device localization. It also employed a reliable signal fingerprint feature extraction method with t-distributed stochastic neighbor embedding (t-SNE), which extracts dominant features while eliminating noise from hybrid WLAN and long-term evolution (LTE) fingerprints. The proposed scheme reduced the workload of site surveying required to build the fingerprint database by up to 78.5% and significantly improved positioning accuracy. The results show that the average positioning error of GAILoc is less than 0.39 m, and more than 90% of the errors are less than 0.82 m. According to numerical results, SRCLoc improves positioning performance and reduces radio map construction costs significantly compared to traditional methods.

Keywords: location-aware services, feature extraction technique, generative adversarial network, long short-term memory, support vector machine

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217 Short-Term Effects of Extreme Temperatures on Cause Specific Cardiovascular Admissions in Beijing, China

Authors: Deginet Aklilu, Tianqi Wang, Endwoke Amsalu, Wei Feng, Zhiwei Li, Xia Li, Lixin Tao, Yanxia Luo, Moning Guo, Xiangtong Liu, Xiuhua Guo

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Extreme temperature-related cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) have become a growing public health concern. However, the impact of temperature on the cause of specific CVDs has not been well studied in the study area. The objective of this study was to assess the impact of temperature on cause-specific cardiovascular hospital admissions in Beijing, China. We obtained data from 172 large general hospitals from the Beijing Public Health Information Center Cardiovascular Case Database and China. Meteorological Administration covering 16 districts in Beijing from 2013 to 2017. We used a time-stratified case crossover design with a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) to derive the impact of temperature on CVD in hospitals back to 27 days on CVD admissions. The temperature data were stratified as cold (extreme and moderate ) and hot (moderate and extreme ). Within five years (January 2013-December 2017), a total of 460,938 (male 54.9% and female 45.1%) CVD admission cases were reported. The exposure-response relationship for hospitalization was described by a "J" shape for the total and cause-specific. An increase in the six-day moving average temperature from moderate hot (30.2 °C) to extreme hot (36.9 °C) resulted in a significant increase in CVD admissions of 16.1%(95% CI = 12.8%-28.9%). However, the effect of cold temperature exposure on CVD admissions over a lag time of 0-27 days was found to be non significant, with a relative risk of 0.45 (95% CI = 0.378-0.55) for extreme cold (-8.5 °C)and 0.53 (95% CI = 0.47-0.60) for moderate cold (-5.6 °C). The results of this study indicate that exposure to extremely high temperatures is highly associated with an increase in cause-specific CVD admissions. These finding may guide to create and raise awareness of the general population, government and private sectors regarding on the effects of current weather conditions on CVD.

Keywords: admission, Beijing, cardiovascular diseases, distributed lag non linear model, temperature

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216 Assessment of Physical Characteristics of Maize (Zea Mays) Stored in Metallic Silos

Authors: B. A. Alabadan, E. S. Ajayi, C. A. Okolo

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The storage losses recorded globally in maize (Zea mays) especially in the developing countries is worrisome. Certain degenerating changes in the physical characteristics (PC) of the grain occur due to the interaction between the stored maize and the immediate environment especially during long storage period. There has been tremendous reduction in the storage losses since the evolution of metallic silos. This study was carried out to assess the physical quality attributes of maize stored in 2500 MT and 1 MT metallic silos for a period of eight months. The PC evaluated includes percentage moisture content MC, insect damage ID, foreign matters FM, hectolitre weight HC, mould M and germinability VG. The evaluation of data obtained was done using statistical package for social sciences (SPSS 20) for windows evaluation version to determine significant levels and trend of deterioration (P < 0.05) for all the values obtained using Multiple Analysis of Variance (MANOVA) and Duncan’s multivariate test. The result shows that the PC are significant with duration of storage at (P < 0.05) except MI and FM that are significant at (P > 0.05) irrespective of the size of the metallic silos. The average mean deviation for physical properties from the control in respect to duration of storage are as follows: MC 10.0 ±0.00%, HC 72.9 ± 0.44% ID 0.29 ± 0.00%, BG 0.55±0.05%, MI 0.00 ± 0.65%, FM 0.80± 0.20%, VG 100 ± 0.03%. The variables that were found to be significant (p < 0.05) with the position of grain in the bulk are VG, MI and ID while others are insignificant at (p > 0.05). Variables were all significant (p < 0.05) with the duration of storage with (0.00) significant levels, irrespective of the size of the metallic silos, but were insignificant with the position of the grain in the bulk (p > 0.05). From the results, it can be concluded that there is a slight decrease of the following variables, with time, HC, MC, and V, probably due to weather fluctuations and grain respiration, while FM, BG, ID and M were found to increase slightly probably due to insect activity in the bigger silos and loss of moisture. The size of metallic silos has no remarkable influence on the PC of stored maize (Zea mays). Germinability was found to be better with the 1 MT silos probably due to its hermetic nature. Smaller size metallic silos are preferred for storage of seeds but bigger silos largely depend on the position of the grains in the bulk.

Keywords: maize, storage, silo, physical characteristics

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215 DNA of Hibiscus sabdariffa Damaged by Radiation from 900 MHz GSM Antenna

Authors: A. O. Oluwajobi, O. A. Falusi, N. A. Zubbair, T. Owoeye, F. Ladejobi, M. C. Dangana, A. Abubakar

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The technology of mobile telephony has positively enhanced human life and reports on the bio safety of the radiation from their antennae have been contradictory, leading to serious litigations and violent protests by residents in several parts of the world. The crave for more information, as requested by WHO in order to resolve this issue, formed the basis for this study on the effect of the radiation from 900 MHz GSM antenna on the DNA of Hibiscus sabdariffa. Seeds of H. sabdariffa were raised in pots placed in three replicates at 100, 200, 300 and 400 metres from the GSM antennae in three selected test locations and a control where there was no GSM signal. Temperature (˚C) and the relative humidity (%) of study sites were measured for the period of study (24 weeks). Fresh young leaves were harvested from each plant at two, eight and twenty-four weeks after sowing and the DNA extracts were subjected to RAPD-PCR analyses. There were no significant differences between the weather conditions (temperature and relative humidity) in all the study locations. However, significant differences were observed in the intensities of radiations between the control (less than 0.02 V/m) and the test (0.40-1.01 V/m) locations. Data obtained showed that DNA of samples exposed to rays from GSM antenna had various levels of distortions, estimated at 91.67%. Distortions occurred in 58.33% of the samples between 2-8 weeks of exposure while 33.33% of the samples were distorted between 8-24 weeks exposure. Approximately 8.33% of the samples did not show distortions in DNA while 33.33% of the samples had their DNA damaged twice, both at 8 and at 24 weeks of exposure. The study showed that radiation from the 900 MHz GSM antenna is potent enough to cause distortions to DNA of H. sabdariffa even within 2-8 weeks of exposure. DNA damage was also independent of the distance from the antenna. These observations would qualify emissions from GSM mast as environmental hazard to the existence of plant biodiversities and all life forms in general. These results will trigger efforts to prevent further erosion of plant genetic resources which have been threatening food security and also the risks posed to living organisms, thereby making our environment very safe for our existence while we still continue to enjoy the benefits of the GSM technology.

Keywords: damage, DNA, GSM antenna, radiation

Procedia PDF Downloads 305
214 Modified 'Perturb and Observe' with 'Incremental Conductance' Algorithm for Maximum Power Point Tracking

Authors: H. Fuad Usman, M. Rafay Khan Sial, Shahzaib Hamid

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The trend of renewable energy resources has been amplified due to global warming and other environmental related complications in the 21st century. Recent research has very much emphasized on the generation of electrical power through renewable resources like solar, wind, hydro, geothermal, etc. The use of the photovoltaic cell has become very public as it is very useful for the domestic and commercial purpose overall the world. Although a single cell gives the low voltage output but connecting a number of cells in a series formed a complete module of the photovoltaic cells, it is becoming a financial investment as the use of it fetching popular. This also reduced the prices of the photovoltaic cell which gives the customers a confident of using this source for their electrical use. Photovoltaic cell gives the MPPT at single specific point of operation at a given temperature and level of solar intensity received at a given surface whereas the focal point changes over a large range depending upon the manufacturing factor, temperature conditions, intensity for insolation, instantaneous conditions for shading and aging factor for the photovoltaic cells. Two improved algorithms have been proposed in this article for the MPPT. The widely used algorithms are the ‘Incremental Conductance’ and ‘Perturb and Observe’ algorithms. To extract the maximum power from the source to the load, the duty cycle of the convertor will be effectively controlled. After assessing the previous techniques, this paper presents the improved and reformed idea of harvesting maximum power point from the photovoltaic cells. A thoroughly go through of the previous ideas has been observed before constructing the improvement in the traditional technique of MPP. Each technique has its own importance and boundaries at various weather conditions. An improved technique of implementing the use of both ‘Perturb and Observe’ and ‘Incremental Conductance’ is introduced.

Keywords: duty cycle, MPPT (Maximum Power Point Tracking), perturb and observe (P&O), photovoltaic module

Procedia PDF Downloads 146
213 Aerosol - Cloud Interaction with Summer Precipitation over Major Cities in Eritrea

Authors: Samuel Abraham Berhane, Lingbing Bu

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This paper presents the spatiotemporal variability of aerosols, clouds, and precipitation within the major cities in Eritrea and it investigates the relationship between aerosols, clouds, and precipitation concerning the presence of aerosols over the study region. In Eritrea, inadequate water supplies will have both direct and indirect adverse impacts on sustainable development in areas such as health, agriculture, energy, communication, and transport. Besides, there exists a gap in the knowledge on suitable and potential areas for cloud seeding. Further, the inadequate understanding of aerosol-cloud-precipitation (ACP) interactions limits the success of weather modification aimed at improving freshwater sources, storage, and recycling. Spatiotemporal variability of aerosols, clouds, and precipitation involve spatial and time series analysis based on trend and anomaly analysis. To find the relationship between aerosols and clouds, a correlation coefficient is used. The spatiotemporal analysis showed larger variations of aerosols within the last two decades, especially in Assab, indicating that aerosol optical depth (AOD) has increased over the surrounding Red Sea region. Rainfall was significantly low but AOD was significantly high during the 2011 monsoon season. Precipitation was high during 2007 over most parts of Eritrea. The correlation coefficient between AOD and rainfall was negative over Asmara and Nakfa. Cloud effective radius (CER) and cloud optical thickness (COT) exhibited a negative correlation with AOD over Nakfa within the June–July–August (JJA) season. The hybrid single-particle Lagrangian integrated trajectory (HYSPLIT) model that is used to find the path and origin of the air mass of the study region showed that the majority of aerosols made their way to the study region via the westerly and the southwesterly winds.

Keywords: aerosol-cloud-precipitation, aerosol optical depth, cloud effective radius, cloud optical thickness, HYSPLIT

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212 Adoption of Risk and Insurance among Aquaculture Producers in Khuzestan Province, Iran

Authors: Kiyanoush Ghalavand

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Aquaculture production is inherently a risky business, and farmers face a variety of weather, pest, disease, inptut supply, and market related risks. There are many factors out farmers control and unpredictable. Insurance has an important role in aquaculture production and is a tool to support farmers against threats. Investigation of factors affecting aquaculture farmers' adoption of aquaculture insurance strategy was the objective of this study. The purpose of this study was determining the related factors to adoption of insurance by aquaculture farmers in Khuzestan province, Iran. The research design was a descriptive and correlation surveying method. Aquaculture farmers in Khuzestan province were the target population for this study. A random sample of aquaculture selected (N=1830, n =139). The main result of the study reveled that exist correlation between the level of education, knowledge about purpose of insurance, participation in extension course, visit with insurance organization, and contact with extension agents to the adoption of insurance by aquaculture farmers were significantly positive. By using Bartlett's test and KMO test, determine whether research variables are appropriate for factor analysis (Sig = 0.000, Bartlett test = 0.9724, KMO = 0.74). The number of factors was determined using a split plot, eigenvalue, and percent of variance. An examination of the items and their factors loadings was used to understand the nature of the nine factors. To reduce subjectivity, items with factor loading equal to or greater than 0.5 were considered most important when factors were labeled. The nine factors were labeled (1) Extension and education activities, (2) Economical characteristics, (3) Governmental support, (4) communicational channel, (5) local leaders, (6) Facilitate in given damage (7) Motivation establishing, (8) Given damage in appropriate methods and (9) Appropriate activities by insurance organization. The results obtained from the factors analysis reveal that the nine factors explain percentage75 of the variation of the adoption of insurance of the adoption of insurance by aquaculture farmers in Khuzestan province.

Keywords: aquaculture farmers, insurance, factorial analysis, Khuzestan province, risks

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211 The Experimental House: A Case Study to Assess the Long-Term Performance of Waste Tires Used as Replacement for Natural Material in Backfill Applications for Basement Walls in Manitoba

Authors: M. Shokry Rashwan

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This study follows a number of experiments conducted at Red River College (RRC) to investigate the short term properties of tire derived aggregate (TDA) produced from shredding off-the-road (OTR) wasted tires in a proposed new application. The application targets replacing natural material used under concrete slabs and as backfills for residential homes’ basement slabs and walls, respectively, with TDA. The experimental work included determining: compressibility, gradation distribution, unit weight, hydraulic conductivity and lateral pressure. Based on the results of those short term properties; it was decided to move forward to study the long-term performance of this otherwise waste material through on-site demonstration. A full-scale basement replicating a typical Manitoba home was therefore built at RRC where both TDA and Natural Materials (NM) were used side-by-side. A large number of sensing and measuring systems are used to compare between the performances of each material when exposed to the typical ground and weather conditions. Parameters monitored and measured include heat losses, moisture migration, drainage ability, lateral pressure, relative movements of slabs and walls, an integrity of ground water and radon emissions. Up-to-date results have confirmed part of the conclusions reached from the earlier laboratory experiments. However, other results have shown that construction practices; such as placing and compaction, may need some adjustments to achieve more desirable outcomes. This presentation provides a review of both short-term tests as well as up-to-date analysis of the on-site demonstration.

Keywords: tire derived aggregate (TDA), basement construction, TDA material properties, lateral pressure of TDA, hydraulic conductivity of TDA

Procedia PDF Downloads 189
210 Thermal and Solar Performances of Adsorption Solar Refrigerating Machine

Authors: Nadia Allouache

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Solar radiation is by far the largest and the most world’s abundant, clean and permanent energy source. The amount of solar radiation intercepted by the Earth is much higher than annual global energy use. The energy available from the sun is greater than about 5200 times the global world’s need in 2006. In recent years, many promising technologies have been developed to harness the sun's energy. These technologies help in environmental protection, economizing energy, and sustainable development, which are the major issues of the world in the 21st century. One of these important technologies is the solar cooling systems that make use of either absorption or adsorption technologies. The solar adsorption cooling systems are good alternative since they operate with environmentally benign refrigerants that are natural, free from CFCs, and therefore they have a zero ozone depleting potential (ODP). A numerical analysis of thermal and solar performances of an adsorption solar refrigerating system using different adsorbent/adsorbate pairs such as activated carbon AC35 and activated carbon BPL/Ammoniac; is undertaken in this study. The modeling of the adsorption cooling machine requires the resolution of the equation describing the energy and mass transfer in the tubular adsorber that is the most important component of the machine. The Wilson and Dubinin- Astakhov models of the solid-adsorbat equilibrium are used to calculate the adsorbed quantity. The porous medium is contained in the annular space and the adsorber is heated by solar energy. Effect of key parameters on the adsorbed quantity and on the thermal and solar performances are analysed and discussed. The performances of the system that depends on the incident global irradiance during a whole day depends on the weather conditions: the condenser temperature and the evaporator temperature. The AC35/methanol pair is the best pair comparing to the BPL/Ammoniac in terms of system performances.

Keywords: activated carbon-methanol pair, activated carbon-ammoniac pair, adsorption, performance coefficients, numerical analysis, solar cooling system

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209 Analysis of Sustainability of Groundwater Resources in Rote Island, Indonesia under HADCM3 Global Model Climate Scenarios: Groundwater Flow Simulation and Proposed Adaptive Strategies

Authors: Dua K. S. Y. Klaas, Monzur A. Imteaz, Ika Sudiayem, Elkan M. E. Klaas, Eldav C. M. Klaas

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Developing tailored management strategies to ensure the sustainability of groundwater resource under climate and demographic changes is critical for tropical karst island, where relatively small watershed and highly porous soil nature make this natural resource highly susceptible and thus very sensitive to those changes. In this study, long-term impacts of climate variability on groundwater recharge and discharge at the Oemau spring, Rote Island, Indonesia were investigated. Following calibration and validation of groundwater model using MODFLOW code, groundwater flow was simulated for period of 2020-2090 under HadCM3 global model climate (GCM) scenarios, using input data of weather variables downscaled by Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM). The reported analysis suggests that the sustainability of groundwater resources will be adversely affected by climate change during dry years. The area is projected to variably experience 2.53-22.80% decrease of spring discharge. A subsequent comprehensive set of management strategies as palliative and adaptive efforts was proposed to be implemented by relevant stakeholders to assist the community dealing with water deficit during the dry years. Three main adaptive strategies, namely socio-cultural, technical, and ecological measures, were proposed by incorporating physical and socio-economic characteristics of the area. This study presents a blueprint for assessing groundwater sustainability under climate change scenarios and developing tailored management strategies to cope with adverse impacts of climate change, which may become fundamental necessities across other tropical karst islands in the future.

Keywords: climate change, groundwater, management strategies, tropical karst island, Rote Island, Indonesia

Procedia PDF Downloads 121
208 Evaluation of Sustainable Business Model Innovation in Increasing the Penetration of Renewable Energy in the Ghana Power Sector

Authors: Victor Birikorang Danquah

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Ghana's primary energy supply is heavily reliant on petroleum, biomass, and hydropower. Currently, Ghana gets its energy from hydropower (Akosombo and Bui), thermal power plants powered by crude oil, natural gas, and diesel, solar power, and imports from La Cote d'Ivoire. Until the early 2000s, large hydroelectric dams dominated Ghana's electricity generation. Due to unreliable weather patterns, Ghana increased its reliance on thermal power. However, thermal power contributes the highest percentage in terms of electricity generation in Ghana and is predominantly supplied by Independent Power Producers (IPPs). Ghana's electricity industry operates the corporate utility model as its business model. This model is typically' vertically integrated,' with a single corporation selling the majority of power generated by its generation assets to its retail business, which then sells the electricity to retail market consumers. The corporate utility model has a straightforward value proposition that is based on increasing the number of energy units sold. The unit volume business model drives the entire energy value chain to increase throughput, locking system users into unsustainable practices. This report uses the qualitative research approach to explore the electricity industry in Ghana. There is a need for increasing renewable energy, such as wind and solar, in electricity generation. The research recommends two critical business models for the penetration of renewable energy in Ghana's power sector. The first model is the peer-to-peer electricity trading model, which relies on a software platform to connect consumers and generators in order for them to trade energy directly with one another. The second model is about encouraging local energy generation, incentivizing optimal time-of-use behaviour, and allowing any financial gains to be shared among the community members.

Keywords: business model innovation, electricity generation, renewable energy, solar energy, sustainability, wind energy

Procedia PDF Downloads 142
207 Psychological Resilience Factors Associated with Climate Change Adaptations by Subsistence Farmers in a Rural Community, South Africa

Authors: Kgopa Bontle, Tholen Sodi

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Climate change poses a major threat to the well-being of both people and the environment, with subsistence farmers most affected as they rely on local supply systems that are sensitive to climate variation. This study documented psychological resilience factors associated with climate change adaptations by subsistence farmers in Maruleng Municipality, Limpopo Province. A qualitative study was conducted to examine the notions of climate change by subsistence farmers, the psychological resilience factors, the strategies to cope with climate change, adaptation methods, and the development of subsistence farmers’ psychological resilience factors model. Data were collected through direct interactions with participants using a grounded theory research design. An open-ended interview was used to collect data with a sample of 15 participants selected through theoretical sampling in Maruleng Municipality. The participants were both Sepedi and Xitsonga speaking from 2 villages, mostly unemployed, pensioners and dependent on social grants. The study included both males and females who were predominately the elderly. The research findings indicate that farmers have limited knowledge of what climate change is and what causes it. Furthermore, the research reflects that although their responses were non-scientific but sensible enough to know what they were dealing with. They mentioned extreme weather, which includes hot days and less rainfall and changes in seasons, as some of the impacts brought by climate change. The results also indicated that participants have learned to adapt through several adaptation strategies, including mulching, changes in irrigation time slots and being innovative. The resilience factors that emerged from the study were a passion for farming, hope, enthusiasm, courage, acceptance/tolerance, livelihood and belief systems. Looking at the socio-economic factors of the current study setting argumentation leads to the conclusion that it is important that government should assist the subsistence farmers as it was observed from the participants that they felt neglected by the government and policymakers as they are small scale farmers and are not included like commercial farmers.

Keywords: climate change, psychological resilience factors, human adaptation, subsistence farmers

Procedia PDF Downloads 100
206 Improving Lane Detection for Autonomous Vehicles Using Deep Transfer Learning

Authors: Richard O’Riordan, Saritha Unnikrishnan

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Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) are incorporating an increasing number of ADAS features, including automated lane-keeping systems. In recent years, many research papers into lane detection algorithms have been published, varying from computer vision techniques to deep learning methods. The transition from lower levels of autonomy defined in the SAE framework and the progression to higher autonomy levels requires increasingly complex models and algorithms that must be highly reliable in their operation and functionality capacities. Furthermore, these algorithms have no room for error when operating at high levels of autonomy. Although the current research details existing computer vision and deep learning algorithms and their methodologies and individual results, the research also details challenges faced by the algorithms and the resources needed to operate, along with shortcomings experienced during their detection of lanes in certain weather and lighting conditions. This paper will explore these shortcomings and attempt to implement a lane detection algorithm that could be used to achieve improvements in AV lane detection systems. This paper uses a pre-trained LaneNet model to detect lane or non-lane pixels using binary segmentation as the base detection method using an existing dataset BDD100k followed by a custom dataset generated locally. The selected roads will be modern well-laid roads with up-to-date infrastructure and lane markings, while the second road network will be an older road with infrastructure and lane markings reflecting the road network's age. The performance of the proposed method will be evaluated on the custom dataset to compare its performance to the BDD100k dataset. In summary, this paper will use Transfer Learning to provide a fast and robust lane detection algorithm that can handle various road conditions and provide accurate lane detection.

Keywords: ADAS, autonomous vehicles, deep learning, LaneNet, lane detection

Procedia PDF Downloads 60
205 Sustainable Development of Adsorption Solar Cooling Machine

Authors: N. Allouache, W. Elgahri, A. Gahfif, M. Belmedani

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Solar radiation is by far the largest and the most world’s abundant, clean and permanent energy source. The amount of solar radiation intercepted by the Earth is much higher than annual global energy use. The energy available from the sun is greater than about 5200 times the global world’s need in 2006. In recent years, many promising technologies have been developed to harness the sun's energy. These technologies help in environmental protection, economizing energy, and sustainable development, which are the major issues of the world in the 21st century. One of these important technologies is the solar cooling systems that make use of either absorption or adsorption technologies. The solar adsorption cooling systems are a good alternative since they operate with environmentally benign refrigerants that are natural, free from CFCs, and therefore they have a zero ozone depleting potential (ODP). A numerical analysis of thermal and solar performances of an adsorption solar refrigerating system using different adsorbent/adsorbate pairs, such as activated carbon AC35 and activated carbon BPL/Ammoniac; is undertaken in this study. The modeling of the adsorption cooling machine requires the resolution of the equation describing the energy and mass transfer in the tubular adsorber, that is the most important component of the machine. The Wilson and Dubinin- Astakhov models of the solid-adsorbat equilibrium are used to calculate the adsorbed quantity. The porous medium is contained in the annular space, and the adsorber is heated by solar energy. Effect of key parameters on the adsorbed quantity and on the thermal and solar performances are analysed and discussed. The performances of the system that depends on the incident global irradiance during a whole day depends on the weather conditions: the condenser temperature and the evaporator temperature. The AC35/methanol pair is the best pair comparing to the BPL/Ammoniac in terms of system performances.

Keywords: activated carbon-methanol pair, activated carbon-ammoniac pair, adsorption, performance coefficients, numerical analysis, solar cooling system

Procedia PDF Downloads 50
204 Improving Fingerprinting-Based Localization System Using Generative Artificial Intelligence

Authors: Getaneh Berie Tarekegn

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A precise localization system is crucial for many artificial intelligence Internet of Things (AI-IoT) applications in the era of smart cities. Their applications include traffic monitoring, emergency alarming, environmental monitoring, location-based advertising, intelligent transportation, and smart health care. The most common method for providing continuous positioning services in outdoor environments is by using a global navigation satellite system (GNSS). Due to nonline-of-sight, multipath, and weather conditions, GNSS systems do not perform well in dense urban, urban, and suburban areas.This paper proposes a generative AI-based positioning scheme for large-scale wireless settings using fingerprinting techniques. In this article, we presented a novel semi-supervised deep convolutional generative adversarial network (S-DCGAN)-based radio map construction method for real-time device localization. We also employed a reliable signal fingerprint feature extraction method with t-distributed stochastic neighbor embedding (t-SNE), which extracts dominant features while eliminating noise from hybrid WLAN and long-term evolution (LTE) fingerprints. The proposed scheme reduced the workload of site surveying required to build the fingerprint database by up to 78.5% and significantly improved positioning accuracy. The results show that the average positioning error of GAILoc is less than 39 cm, and more than 90% of the errors are less than 82 cm. That is, numerical results proved that, in comparison to traditional methods, the proposed SRCLoc method can significantly improve positioning performance and reduce radio map construction costs.

Keywords: location-aware services, feature extraction technique, generative adversarial network, long short-term memory, support vector machine

Procedia PDF Downloads 41
203 Multimedia Container for Autonomous Car

Authors: Janusz Bobulski, Mariusz Kubanek

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The main goal of the research is to develop a multimedia container structure containing three types of images: RGB, lidar and infrared, properly calibrated to each other. An additional goal is to develop program libraries for creating and saving this type of file and for restoring it. It will also be necessary to develop a method of data synchronization from lidar and RGB cameras as well as infrared. This type of file could be used in autonomous vehicles, which would certainly facilitate data processing by the intelligent autonomous vehicle management system. Autonomous cars are increasingly breaking into our consciousness. No one seems to have any doubts that self-driving cars are the future of motoring. Manufacturers promise that moving the first of them to showrooms is the prospect of the next few years. Many experts believe that creating a network of communicating autonomous cars will be able to completely eliminate accidents. However, to make this possible, it is necessary to develop effective methods of detection of objects around the moving vehicle. In bad weather conditions, this task is difficult on the basis of the RGB(red, green, blue) image. Therefore, in such situations, you should be supported by information from other sources, such as lidar or infrared cameras. The problem is the different data formats that individual types of devices return. In addition to these differences, there is a problem with the synchronization of these data and the formatting of this data. The goal of the project is to develop a file structure that could be containing a different type of data. This type of file is calling a multimedia container. A multimedia container is a container that contains many data streams, which allows you to store complete multimedia material in one file. Among the data streams located in such a container should be indicated streams of images, films, sounds, subtitles, as well as additional information, i.e., metadata. This type of file could be used in autonomous vehicles, which would certainly facilitate data processing by the intelligent autonomous vehicle management system. As shown by preliminary studies, the use of combining RGB and InfraRed images with Lidar data allows for easier data analysis. Thanks to this application, it will be possible to display the distance to the object in a color photo. Such information can be very useful for drivers and for systems in autonomous cars.

Keywords: an autonomous car, image processing, lidar, obstacle detection

Procedia PDF Downloads 187
202 Energy Efficient Building Design in Nigeria: An Assessment of the Effect of the Sun on Energy Consumption in Residential Buildings

Authors: Ekele T. Ochedi, Ahmad H. Taki, Birgit Painter

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The effect of the sun and its path on thermal comfort and energy consumption in residential buildings in tropical climates constitute a serious concern for designers, building owners, and users. Passive design approaches based on the sun and its path have been identified as a means of reducing energy consumption as well as enhancing thermal comfort in buildings worldwide. Hence, a thorough understanding regarding the sun path is key to achieving this. This is necessary due to energy need, poor energy supply, and distribution, energy poverty, and over-dependence on electric generators for power supply in Nigeria. These challenges call for a change in the approach to energy-related issues, especially in terms of buildings. The aim of this study is to explore the influence of building orientation, glazing and the use of shading devices on residential buildings in Nigeria. This is intended to provide data that will guide designers in the design of energy-efficient residential buildings. The paper used EnergyPlus to analyze a typical semi-detached residential building in Lokoja, Nigeria using hourly weather data for a period of 10 years. Building performance was studied as well as possible improvement regarding different orientations, glazing types and shading devices. The simulation results show some reductions in energy consumption in response to changes in building orientation, types of glazing and the use of shading devices. The results indicate 29.45% reduction in solar gains and 1.90% in annual operative temperature using natural ventilation only. This shows a huge potential to reduce energy consumption and improve people’s well-being through the use of proper building orientation, glazing and appropriate shading devices on building envelope. The study concludes that for a significant reduction in total energy consumption by residential buildings, the design should focus on multiple design options rather than concentrating on one or few building elements. Moreover, the investigation confirms that energy performance modeling can be used by building designers to take advantage of the sun and to evaluate various design options.

Keywords: energy consumption, energy-efficient buildings, glazing, thermal comfort, shading devices, solar gains

Procedia PDF Downloads 177
201 GAILoc: Improving Fingerprinting-Based Localization System Using Generative Artificial Intelligence

Authors: Getaneh Berie Tarekegn

Abstract:

A precise localization system is crucial for many artificial intelligence Internet of Things (AI-IoT) applications in the era of smart cities. Their applications include traffic monitoring, emergency alarming, environmental monitoring, location-based advertising, intelligent transportation, and smart health care. The most common method for providing continuous positioning services in outdoor environments is by using a global navigation satellite system (GNSS). Due to nonline-of-sight, multipath, and weather conditions, GNSS systems do not perform well in dense urban, urban, and suburban areas.This paper proposes a generative AI-based positioning scheme for large-scale wireless settings using fingerprinting techniques. In this article, we presented a novel semi-supervised deep convolutional generative adversarial network (S-DCGAN)-based radio map construction method for real-time device localization. We also employed a reliable signal fingerprint feature extraction method with t-distributed stochastic neighbor embedding (t-SNE), which extracts dominant features while eliminating noise from hybrid WLAN and long-term evolution (LTE) fingerprints. The proposed scheme reduced the workload of site surveying required to build the fingerprint database by up to 78.5% and significantly improved positioning accuracy. The results show that the average positioning error of GAILoc is less than 39 cm, and more than 90% of the errors are less than 82 cm. That is, numerical results proved that, in comparison to traditional methods, the proposed SRCLoc method can significantly improve positioning performance and reduce radio map construction costs.

Keywords: location-aware services, feature extraction technique, generative adversarial network, long short-term memory, support vector machine

Procedia PDF Downloads 38
200 A Comparative Study of Regional Climate Models and Global Coupled Models over Uttarakhand

Authors: Sudip Kumar Kundu, Charu Singh

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As a great physiographic divide, the Himalayas affecting a large system of water and air circulation which helps to determine the climatic condition in the Indian subcontinent to the south and mid-Asian highlands to the north. It creates obstacles by defending chill continental air from north side into India in winter and also defends rain-bearing southwesterly monsoon to give up maximum precipitation in that area in monsoon season. Nowadays extreme weather conditions such as heavy precipitation, cloudburst, flash flood, landslide and extreme avalanches are the regular happening incidents in the region of North Western Himalayan (NWH). The present study has been planned to investigate the suitable model(s) to find out the rainfall pattern over that region. For this investigation, selected models from Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) has been utilized in a consistent framework for the period of 1976 to 2000 (historical). The ability of these driving models from CORDEX domain and CMIP5 has been examined according to their capability of the spatial distribution as well as time series plot of rainfall over NWH in the rainy season and compared with the ground-based Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) gridded rainfall data set. It is noted from the analysis that the models like MIROC5 and MPI-ESM-LR from the both CORDEX and CMIP5 provide the best spatial distribution of rainfall over NWH region. But the driving models from CORDEX underestimates the daily rainfall amount as compared to CMIP5 driving models as it is unable to capture daily rainfall data properly when it has been plotted for time series (TS) individually for the state of Uttarakhand (UK) and Himachal Pradesh (HP). So finally it can be said that the driving models from CMIP5 are better than CORDEX domain models to investigate the rainfall pattern over NWH region.

Keywords: global warming, rainfall, CMIP5, CORDEX, NWH

Procedia PDF Downloads 138
199 Scheduling Residential Daily Energy Consumption Using Bi-criteria Optimization Methods

Authors: Li-hsing Shih, Tzu-hsun Yen

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Because of the long-term commitment to net zero carbon emission, utility companies include more renewable energy supply, which generates electricity with time and weather restrictions. This leads to time-of-use electricity pricing to reflect the actual cost of energy supply. From an end-user point of view, better residential energy management is needed to incorporate the time-of-use prices and assist end users in scheduling their daily use of electricity. This study uses bi-criteria optimization methods to schedule daily energy consumption by minimizing the electricity cost and maximizing the comfort of end users. Different from most previous research, this study schedules users’ activities rather than household appliances to have better measures of users’ comfort/satisfaction. The relation between each activity and the use of different appliances could be defined by users. The comfort level is at the highest when the time and duration of an activity completely meet the user’s expectation, and the comfort level decreases when the time and duration do not meet expectations. A questionnaire survey was conducted to collect data for establishing regression models that describe users’ comfort levels when the execution time and duration of activities are different from user expectations. Six regression models representing the comfort levels for six types of activities were established using the responses to the questionnaire survey. A computer program is developed to evaluate electricity cost and the comfort level for each feasible schedule and then find the non-dominated schedules. The Epsilon constraint method is used to find the optimal schedule out of the non-dominated schedules. A hypothetical case is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach and the computer program. Using the program, users can obtain the optimal schedule of daily energy consumption by inputting the intended time and duration of activities and the given time-of-use electricity prices.

Keywords: bi-criteria optimization, energy consumption, time-of-use price, scheduling

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198 Enhancement of Long Term Peak Demand Forecast in Peninsular Malaysia Using Hourly Load Profile

Authors: Nazaitul Idya Hamzah, Muhammad Syafiq Mazli, Maszatul Akmar Mustafa

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The peak demand forecast is crucial to identify the future generation plant up needed in the long-term capacity planning analysis for Peninsular Malaysia as well as for the transmission and distribution network planning activities. Currently, peak demand forecast (in Mega Watt) is derived from the generation forecast by using load factor assumption. However, a forecast using this method has underperformed due to the structural changes in the economy, emerging trends and weather uncertainty. The dynamic changes of these drivers will result in many possible outcomes of peak demand for Peninsular Malaysia. This paper will look into the independent model of peak demand forecasting. The model begins with the selection of driver variables to capture long-term growth. This selection and construction of variables, which include econometric, emerging trend and energy variables, will have an impact on the peak forecast. The actual framework begins with the development of system energy and load shape forecast by using the system’s hourly data. The shape forecast represents the system shape assuming all embedded technology and use patterns to continue in the future. This is necessary to identify the movements in the peak hour or changes in the system load factor. The next step would be developing the peak forecast, which involves an iterative process to explore model structures and variables. The final step is combining the system energy, shape, and peak forecasts into the hourly system forecast then modifying it with the forecast adjustments. Forecast adjustments are among other sales forecasts for electric vehicles, solar and other adjustments. The framework will result in an hourly forecast that captures growth, peak usage and new technologies. The advantage of this approach as compared to the current methodology is that the peaks capture new technology impacts that change the load shape.

Keywords: hourly load profile, load forecasting, long term peak demand forecasting, peak demand

Procedia PDF Downloads 130