Search results for: stochastic perturbations

Authors: M. Naderi, N. Iyyer, K. Goel, N. Phan

Abstract:

A micromechanical analysis of the influence of fiber-matrix interface fracture properties on the transverse tensile response of fiber-reinforced composite is investigated. Augmented finite element method (AFEM) is used to provide high-fidelity damage initiation and propagation along the micromechanical analysis. Effects of fiber volume fraction and fiber shapes are also studies in representative volume elements (RVE) to capture the stochastic behavior of the composite under loading. In addition, defects and voids influence on the composite response are investigated in micromechanical analysis. The results reveal that the response of RVE with constant interface properties overestimates the composite transverse strength. It is also seen that the damage initiation and propagation locations are controlled by the distributions of fracture properties, fibers’ shapes, and defects.

Keywords: cohesive model, fracture, computational mechanics, micromechanics

Procedia PDF Downloads 266

Authors: (Ted) Edward Holmberg, Mahdi Abdelguerfi, Elias Ioup

Abstract:

This research details a coverage measure for evaluating the effectiveness of observer node placements in a spatial bipartite network. This coverage measure can be used to optimize the configuration of stationary or mobile spatially oriented observer nodes, or a hybrid of the two, over time in order to fully utilize their capabilities. To demonstrate the practical application of this approach, we construct a SpatioTemporal Bipartite Network (STBN) using real-time crime center (RTCC) camera nodes and NOPD calls for service (CFS) event nodes from New Orleans, La (NOLA). We use the coverage measure to identify optimal placements for moving mobile RTCC camera vans to improve coverage of vulnerable areas based on temporal patterns.

Keywords: coverage measure, mobile node dynamics, Monte Carlo simulation, observer nodes, observable nodes, spatiotemporal bipartite knowledge graph, temporal spatial analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 63

Authors: Vishal Jaunky, Jonas Grafström

Abstract:

The development of the European Union’s (EU) single economic market and rapid technological change has resulted in major structural changes in EU’s member states economies. The general liberalization process that the countries has undergone together has convinced the governments of the member states of need to upgrade their economic and training systems in order to be able to face the economic globalization. Several signs of economic convergence have been found but less is known about the knowledge production. This paper addresses the convergence pattern of technological innovation in 13 European Union (EU) states over the time period 1990-2011 by means of parametric and non-parametric techniques. Parametric approaches revolve around the neoclassical convergence theories. This paper reveals divergence of both the β and σ types. Further, we found evidence of stochastic divergence and non-parametric convergence approach such as distribution dynamics shows a tendency towards divergence. This result is supported with the occurrence of γ-divergence. The policies of the EU to reduce technological gap among its member states seem to be missing its target, something that can have negative long run consequences for the market.

Keywords: convergence, patents, panel data, European union

Procedia PDF Downloads 255

Authors: Samuel Oluwafemi Oyamakin, Angela Unna Chukwu

Abstract:

Richrads growth equation being a generalized logistic growth equation was improved upon by introducing an allometric parameter using the hyperbolic sine function. The integral solution to this was called hyperbolic Richards growth model having transformed the solution from deterministic to a stochastic growth model. Its ability in model prediction was compared with the classical Richards growth model an approach which mimicked the natural variability of heights/diameter increment with respect to age and therefore provides a more realistic height/diameter predictions using the coefficient of determination (R2), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Square Error (MSE) results. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and Shapiro-Wilk test was also used to test the behavior of the error term for possible violations. The mean function of top height/Dbh over age using the two models under study predicted closely the observed values of top height/Dbh in the hyperbolic Richards nonlinear growth models better than the classical Richards growth model.

Keywords: height, diameter at breast height, DBH, hyperbolic sine function, Pinus caribaea, Richards' growth model

Procedia PDF Downloads 361

Authors: Valentina A. Mikhailova, Serguei V. Feskov, Anatoly I. Ivanov

Abstract:

In the last decade the nonequilibrium charge transfer have attracted considerable interest from the scientific community. Examples of such processes are the charge recombination in excited donor-acceptor complexes and the intramolecular electron transfer from the second excited electronic state. In these reactions the charge transfer proceeds predominantly in the nonequilibrium mode. In the excited donor-acceptor complexes the nuclear nonequilibrium is created by the pump pulse. The intramolecular electron transfer from the second excited electronic state is an example where the nuclear nonequilibrium is created by the forward electron transfer. The kinetics of these nonequilibrium reactions demonstrate a number of peculiar properties. Most important from them are: (i) the absence of the Marcus normal region in the free energy gap law for the charge recombination in excited donor-acceptor complexes, (ii) extremely low quantum yield of thermalized charge separated state in the ultrafast charge transfer from the second excited state, (iii) the nonexponential charge recombination dynamics in excited donor-acceptor complexes, (iv) the dependence of the charge transfer rate constant on the excitation pulse frequency. This report shows that most of these kinetic features can be well reproduced in the framework of stochastic point-transition multichannel model. The model involves an explicit description of the nonequilibrium excited state formation by the pump pulse and accounts for the reorganization of intramolecular high-frequency vibrational modes, for their relaxation as well as for the solvent relaxation. The model is able to quantitatively reproduce complex nonequilibrium charge transfer kinetics observed in modern experiments. The interpretation of the nonequilibrium effects from a unified point of view in the terms of the multichannel point transition stochastic model allows to see similarities and differences of electron transfer mechanism in various molecular donor-acceptor systems and formulates general regularities inherent in these phenomena. The nonequilibrium effects in photoinduced ultrafast charge transfer which have been studied for the last 10 years are analyzed. The methods of suppression of the ultrafast charge recombination, similarities and dissimilarities of electron transfer mechanism in different molecular donor-acceptor systems are discussed. The extremely low quantum yield of the thermalized charge separated state observed in the ultrafast charge transfer from the second excited state in the complex consisting of 1,2,4-trimethoxybenzene and tetracyanoethylene in acetonitrile solution directly demonstrates that its effectiveness can be close to unity. This experimental finding supports the idea that the nonequilibrium charge recombination in the excited donor-acceptor complexes can be also very effective so that the part of thermalized complexes is negligible. It is discussed the regularities inherent to the equilibrium and nonequilibrium reactions. Their fundamental differences are analyzed. Namely the opposite dependencies of the charge transfer rates on the dynamical properties of the solvent. The increase of the solvent viscosity results in decreasing the thermal rate and vice versa increasing the nonequilibrium rate. The dependencies of the rates on the solvent reorganization energy and the free energy gap also can considerably differ. This work was supported by the Russian Science Foundation (Grant No. 16-13-10122).

Keywords: Charge recombination, higher excited states, free energy gap law, nonequilibrium

Procedia PDF Downloads 287

Authors: Abdul Rehman, Bo Liu

Abstract:

Axial flow turbines are commonly designed with high loads that generate strong secondary flows and result in high secondary losses. These losses contribute to almost 30% to 50% of the total losses. Non-axisymmetric endwall profiling is one of the passive control technique to reduce the secondary flow loss. In this paper, the non-axisymmetric endwall profile construction and optimization for the stator endwalls are presented to improve the efficiency of a high pressure turbine. The commercial code NUMECA Fine/ Design3D coupled with Fine/Turbo was used for the numerical investigation, design of experiments and the optimization. All the flow simulations were conducted by using steady RANS and Spalart-Allmaras as a turbulence model. The non-axisymmetric endwalls of stator hub and shroud were created by using the perturbation law based on Bezier Curves. Each cut having multiple control points was supposed to be created along the virtual streamlines in the blade channel. For the design of experiments, each sample was arbitrarily generated based on values automatically chosen for the control points defined during parameterization. The Optimization was achieved by using two algorithms i.e. the stochastic algorithm and gradient-based algorithm. For the stochastic algorithm, a genetic algorithm based on the artificial neural network was used as an optimization method in order to achieve the global optimum. The evaluation of the successive design iterations was performed using artificial neural network prior to the flow solver. For the second case, the conjugate gradient algorithm with a three dimensional CFD flow solver was used to systematically vary a free-form parameterization of the endwall. This method is efficient and less time to consume as it requires derivative information of the objective function. The objective function was to maximize the isentropic efficiency of the turbine by keeping the mass flow rate as constant. The performance was quantified by using a multi-objective function. Other than these two classifications of the optimization methods, there were four optimizations cases i.e. the hub only, the shroud only, and the combination of hub and shroud. For the fourth case, the shroud endwall was optimized by using the optimized hub endwall geometry. The hub optimization resulted in an increase in the efficiency due to more homogenous inlet conditions for the rotor. The adverse pressure gradient was reduced but the total pressure loss in the vicinity of the hub was increased. The shroud optimization resulted in an increase in efficiency, total pressure loss and entropy were reduced. The combination of hub and shroud did not show overwhelming results which were achieved for the individual cases of the hub and the shroud. This may be caused by fact that there were too many control variables. The fourth case of optimization showed the best result because optimized hub was used as an initial geometry to optimize the shroud. The efficiency was increased more than the individual cases of optimization with a mass flow rate equal to the baseline design of the turbine. The results of artificial neural network and conjugate gradient method were compared.

Keywords: artificial neural network, axial turbine, conjugate gradient method, non-axisymmetric endwall, optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 201

Authors: André Luís Brasil Cavalcante, Juan Felix Rodriguez Rebolledo, Lucas Parreira de Faria Borges

Abstract:

A methodology for the probabilistic analysis of active earth pressure on retaining wall for c-Φ soil backfill is described in this paper. The Rosenblueth point estimate method is used to measure the failure probability of a gravity retaining wall. The basic principle of this methodology is to use two point estimates, i.e., the standard deviation and the mean value, to examine a variable in the safety analysis. The simplicity of this framework assures to its wide application. For the calculation is required 2ⁿ repetitions during the analysis, since the system is governed by n variables. In this study, a probabilistic model based on the Rosenblueth approach for the computation of the overturning probability of failure of a retaining wall is presented. The obtained results have shown the advantages of this kind of models in comparison with the deterministic solution. In a relatively easy way, the uncertainty on the wall and fill parameters are taken into account, and some practical results can be obtained for the retaining structure design.

Keywords: retaining wall, active earth pressure, backfill, probabilistic analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 378

Authors: Adedolapo Ayoade, John the Beloved Dada

Abstract:

This study identified the phytoplankton assemblage of the Dandaru Lake (that received effluents from a zoological garden and hospital) as bioindicators of water quality. Physicochemical parameters including Dissolved Oxygen (DO), biochemical oxygen demand, nitrate, phosphate and heavy metals were also determined. Samples of water and plankton were collected once monthly from April to September, 2015 at five stations (I – V). The mean physicochemical parameters were within the limits of National Environmental Standards and Regulations Enforcement Agency (NESREA) and USEPA except Lead, 0.02 ± 0.08 mg/ L; Manganese, 0.46 ± 1.00 mg/ L and Zinc, 0.05 ± 0.17 mg/ L. Means of DO, alkalinity, and phosphate were significantly different between the stations at p < 0.05. While highest mean DO (6.88 ± 1.34 mg/L) was recorded in station I with less anthropogenic activities, highest phosphate concentration (0.28 ± 0.28 mg/L) occurred in station II, the entry point of wastewater from hospital and zoological garden. The 147 phytoplankton species found in the lake belonged to six classes: Chlorophyceae (50), Euglenophyceae (40), Bacillariophyceae (37), Cyanophyceae (17), Xanthophyceae and Chrysophyceae (3). The order of abundance for phytoplankton was Euglenophyceae (49.77%) > Bacillariophyceae (18.00%) > Cyanophyceae (17.39%) > Chlorophyceae (13.7%) > Xanthophyceae (1.06%) > Chrysophyceae (0.02%). The stations impacted with effluents were dominated by members of Euglenophyceae (Station III, 77.09%; IV, 50.55%) and Cyanophyceae (Station II, 27.7%; V, 32.57%). While station I was dominated by diatoms (57.98%). The species richness recorded was 0.32 – 4.49. Evenness index was highest in station I and least in station III. Generally, pollution tolerant species (Microcystis, Oscillatoria, Scenedesmus, Anabaena, and Euglena) showed greater density in areas impacted by human activities. The phytoplankton assemblage and comparatively low biotic diversity in Dandaru Lake could be attributed to perturbations in the water column that exerted selective effects on the biological assemblage.

Keywords: manmade lake, Nigeria, phytoplankton, water quality

Procedia PDF Downloads 226

Authors: Jessemyn Modiini, Timothy Lynar, Elena Sitnikova

Abstract:

We present a novel enhanced compartmental model for malware spread analysis in cyber security. This paper applies cyber security data features to epidemiological compartmental models to model the infectious potential of malware. Compartmental models are most efficient for calculating the infectious potential of a disease. In this paper, we discuss and profile epidemiologically relevant data features from a Domain Name System (DNS) dataset. We then apply these features to epidemiological compartmental models to network traffic features. This paper demonstrates how epidemiological principles can be applied to the novel analysis of key cybersecurity behaviours and trends and provides insight into threat modelling above that of kill-chain analysis. In applying deterministic compartmental models to a cyber security use case, the authors analyse the deficiencies and provide an enhanced stochastic model for cyber epidemiology. This enhanced compartmental model (SUEICRN model) is contrasted with the traditional SEIR model to demonstrate its efficacy.

Keywords: cybersecurity, epidemiology, cyber epidemiology, malware

Procedia PDF Downloads 82

Authors: Innocent Pangapanga-Phiri, Eric Dada Mungatana

Abstract:

This study estimates the effect of climate-induced rural-urban migrants (RUM) on maize productivity. It uses panel data gathered by the National Statistics Office and the World Bank to understand the effect of RUM on the technical efficiency of maize production in rural Malawi. The study runs the two-stage Tobit regression to isolate the real effect of rural-urban migration on the technical efficiency of maize production. The results show that RUM significantly reduces the technical efficiency of maize production. However, the interaction of RUM and climate-smart agriculture has a positive and significant influence on the technical efficiency of maize production, suggesting the need for re-investing migrants’ remittances in agricultural activities.

Keywords: climate-smart agriculture, farm productivity, rural-urban migration, panel stochastic frontier models, two-stage Tobit regression

Procedia PDF Downloads 86

Authors: Boukari Abdou Wakilou

Abstract:

Benin is one of West Africa's major cotton-producing countries. Cotton is the country's main source of foreign currency and employment. But it is also one of the sources of soil degradation. The search for good agricultural practices is therefore, a constant preoccupation. The aim of this study is to measure the technical efficiency of cotton growers by comparing those who constantly grow cotton on the same land with those who practice crop rotation. The one-step estimation approach of the stochastic production frontier, including determinants of technical inefficiency, was applied to a stratified random sample of 261 cotton producers. Overall, the growers had a high average technical efficiency level of 90%. However, there was no significant difference in the level of technical efficiency between the two groups of growers studied. All the factors linked to compliance with the technical production itinerary had a positive influence on the growers' level of efficiency. It is, therefore, important to continue raising awareness of the importance of respecting the technical production itinerary and of integrated soil fertility management techniques.

Keywords: technical efficiency, soil fertility, cotton, crop rotation, benin

Procedia PDF Downloads 28

Authors: Reni M. Sagayaraj, Anand Gnana S. Selvam, Reynald R. Susainathan

Abstract:

In this paper, we consider stochastic queueing models for Steady-state behavior of a multi-phase M/M/1 queue in random evolution subject to catastrophe failure. The arrival flow of customers is described by a marked Markovian arrival process. The service times of different type customers have a phase-type distribution with different parameters. To facilitate the investigation of the system we use a generalized phase-type service time distribution. This model contains a repair state, when a catastrophe occurs the system is transferred to the failure state. The paper focuses on the steady-state equation, and observes that, the steady-state behavior of the underlying queueing model along with the average queue size is analyzed.

Keywords: M/G/1 queuing system, multi-phase, random evolution, steady-state equation, catastrophe failure

Procedia PDF Downloads 285

Authors: Mahmoud M. Othman, Almoataz Y. Abdelaziz, Yasser G. Hegazy

Abstract:

This paper presents a load control strategy based on modification of the Big Bang Big Crunch optimization method. The proposed strategy aims to determine the optimal load to be controlled and the corresponding time of control in order to minimize the energy purchased from substation. The presented strategy helps the distribution network operator to rely on the renewable energy sources in supplying the system demand. The renewable energy sources used in the presented study are modeled using the diagonal band Copula method and sequential Monte Carlo method in order to accurately consider the multivariate stochastic dependence between wind power, photovoltaic power and the system demand. The proposed algorithms are implemented in MATLAB environment and tested on the IEEE 37-node feeder. Several case studies are done and the subsequent discussions show the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

Keywords: big bang big crunch, distributed generation, load control, optimization, planning

Procedia PDF Downloads 316

Authors: Shiliang Wu, Huanxin Zhang, Aditya Kumar

Abstract:

There have been increasing concerns on atmospheric mercury as a toxic and bioaccumulative pollutant in the global environment. Global change, including changes in climate change, land use, land cover and wildfires activities can all have significant impacts on atmospheric mercury. In this study, we use a global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) to examine the potential impacts from global change on atmospheric mercury. All of these factors in the context of global change are found to have significant impacts on the long-term evolution of atmospheric mercury and can substantially alter the global source-receptor relationships for mercury. We also estimate the global Hg emissions from wildfires for present-day and the potential impacts from the 2000-2050 changes in climate, land use and land cover and Hg anthropogenic emissions by combining statistical analysis with global data on vegetation type and coverage as well as fire activities. Present global Hg wildfire emissions are estimated to be 612 Mg year-1. Africa is the dominant source region (43.8% of global emissions), followed by Eurasia (31%) and South America (16.6%). We find significant perturbations to wildfire emissions of Hg in the context of global change, driven by the projected changes in climate, land use and land cover and Hg anthropogenic emissions. 2000-2050 climate change could increase Hg emissions by 14% globally. Projected changes in land use by 2050 could decrease the global Hg emissions from wildfires by 13% mainly driven by a decline in African emissions due to significant agricultural land expansion. Future land cover changes could lead to significant increases in Hg emissions over some regions (+32% North America, +14% Africa, +13% Eurasia). Potential enrichment of terrestrial ecosystems in 2050 in response to changes in Hg anthropogenic emissions could increase Hg wildfire emissions both globally (+28%) and regionally. Our results indicate that the future evolution of climate, land use and land cover and Hg anthropogenic emissions are all important factors affecting Hg wildfire emissions in the coming decades.

Keywords: climate change, land use, land cover, wildfires

Procedia PDF Downloads 293

Authors: Ju-Hong Lee, Ding-Chen Chung

Abstract:

This paper deals with the optimal design of recursive doubly complementary (DC) digital filter design using a metaheuristic based optimization technique. Based on the theory of DC digital filters using two recursive digital all-pass filters (DAFs), the design problem is appropriately formulated to result in an objective function which is a weighted sum of the phase response errors of the designed DAFs. To deal with the stability of the recursive DC filters during the design process, we can either impose some necessary constraints on the phases of the recursive DAFs. Through a frequency sampling and a weighted least squares approach, the optimization problem of the objective function can be solved by utilizing a population based stochastic optimization approach. The resulting DC digital filters can possess satisfactory frequency response. Simulation results are presented for illustration and comparison.

Keywords: doubly complementary, digital all-pass filter, weighted least squares algorithm, particle swarm optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 649

Authors: A. Abbou, V. Makis, N. Salari

Abstract:

We study the condition-based maintenance (CBM) problem of a system subject to stochastic deterioration. The system is composed of three units (or modules): (i) Module 1 deterioration follows a Markov process with two operational states and one failure state. The operational states are partially observable through periodic condition monitoring. (ii) Module 2 deterioration follows a Gamma process with a known failure threshold. The deterioration level of this module is fully observable through periodic inspections. (iii) Only the operating age information is available of Module 3. The lifetime of this module has a general distribution. A CBM policy prescribes when to initiate a maintenance intervention and which modules to repair during intervention. Our objective is to determine the optimal CBM policy minimizing the long-run expected average cost of operating the system. This is achieved by formulating a Markov decision process (MDP) and developing the value iteration algorithm for solving the MDP. We provide numerical examples illustrating the cost-effectiveness of the optimal CBM policy through a comparison with heuristic policies commonly found in the literature.

Keywords: reliability, maintenance optimization, Markov decision process, heuristics

Procedia PDF Downloads 189

Authors: H. Mousavi, M. Sharifi, H. Pourvaziri

Abstract:

Redundancy Allocation Problem (RAP) is a well-known mathematical problem for modeling series-parallel systems. It is a combinatorial optimization problem which focuses on determining an optimal assignment of components in a system design. In this paper, to be more practical, we have considered the problem of redundancy allocation of series system with interval valued reliability of components. Therefore, during the search process, the reliabilities of the components are considered as a stochastic variable with a lower and upper bounds. In order to optimize the problem, we proposed a simulated annealing based on cloud theory (CBSAA). Also, the Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) is embedded to the CBSAA to handle the random variable components’ reliability. This novel approach has been investigated by numerical examples and the experimental results have shown that the CBSAA combining MCS is an efficient tool to solve the RAP of systems with interval-valued component reliabilities.

Keywords: redundancy allocation problem, simulated annealing, cloud theory, monte carlo simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 386

Authors: Soudabeh Shemehsavar

Abstract:

In this paper, we consider the situation under a life test, in which the failure time of the test units are not related deterministically to an observable stochastic time varying covariate. In such a case, the joint distribution of failure time and a marker value would be useful for modeling the step stress life test. The problem of accelerating such an experiment is considered as the main aim of this paper. We present a step stress accelerated model based on a bivariate Wiener process with one component as the latent (unobservable) degradation process, which determines the failure times and the other as a marker process, the degradation values of which are recorded at times of failure. Parametric inference based on the proposed model is discussed and the optimization procedure for obtaining the optimal time for changing the stress level is presented. The optimization criterion is to minimize the approximate variance of the maximum likelihood estimator of a percentile of the products’ lifetime distribution.

Keywords: bivariate normal, Fisher information matrix, inverse Gaussian distribution, Wiener process

Procedia PDF Downloads 295

Authors: Ju-Hong Lee, Ding-Chen Chung

Abstract:

The paper deals with the optimal design of two-channel linear-phase (LP) quadrature mirror filter (QMF) banks using a metaheuristic based optimization technique. Based on the theory of two-channel QMF banks using two recursive digital all-pass filters (DAFs), the design problem is appropriately formulated to result in an objective function which is a weighted sum of the group delay error of the designed QMF bank and the magnitude response error of the designed low-pass analysis filter. Through a frequency sampling and a weighted least squares approach, the optimization problem of the objective function can be solved by utilizing a particle swarm optimization algorithm. The resulting two-channel QMF banks can possess approximately LP response without magnitude distortion. Simulation results are presented for illustration and comparison.

Keywords: quadrature mirror filter bank, digital all-pass filter, weighted least squares algorithm, particle swarm optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 485

Authors: Mochamad Beta Auditama, Yusuf Kurniawan

Abstract:

A smartphone or tablet require a strong randomness to establish secure encrypted communication, encrypt files, etc. Therefore, random number generation is one of the main keys to provide secrecy. Android devices are equipped with hardware-based sensors, such as accelerometer, gyroscope, etc. Each of these sensors provides a stochastic process which has a potential to be used as an extra randomness source, in addition to /dev/random and /dev/urandom pseudorandom number generators. Android sensors can provide randomness automatically. To obtain randomness from Android sensors, each one of Android sensors shall be used to construct an entropy source. After all entropy sources are constructed, output from these entropy sources are combined to provide more entropy. Then, a deterministic process is used to produces a sequence of random bits from the combined output. All of these processes are done in accordance with NIST SP 800-22 and the series of NIST SP 800-90. The operation conditions are done 1) on Android user-space, and 2) the Android device is placed motionless on a desk.

Keywords: Android hardware-based sensor, deterministic process, entropy source, random number generation/generators

Procedia PDF Downloads 337

Authors: Javier E. García-Gallo, Nelson J. Fonseca-Ruiz, John F. Duitama-Munoz

Abstract:

Sepsis is a syndrome that occurs with physiological and biochemical abnormalities induced by severe infection and carries a high mortality and morbidity, therefore the severity of its condition must be interpreted quickly. After patient admission in an intensive care unit (ICU), it is necessary to synthesize the large volume of information that is collected from patients in a value that represents the severity of their condition. Traditional severity of illness scores seeks to be applicable to all patient populations, and usually assess in-hospital mortality. However, the use of machine learning techniques and the data of a population that shares a common characteristic could lead to the development of customized mortality prediction scores with better performance. This study presents the development of a score for the one-year mortality prediction of the patients that are admitted to an ICU with a sepsis diagnosis. 5650 ICU admissions extracted from the MIMICIII database were evaluated, divided into two groups: 70% to develop the score and 30% to validate it. Comorbidities, demographics and clinical information of the first 24 hours after the ICU admission were used to develop a mortality prediction score. LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) and SGB (Stochastic Gradient Boosting) variable importance methodologies were used to select the set of variables that make up the developed score; each of this variables was dichotomized and a cut-off point that divides the population into two groups with different mean mortalities was found; if the patient is in the group that presents a higher mortality a one is assigned to the particular variable, otherwise a zero is assigned. These binary variables are used in a logistic regression (LR) model, and its coefficients were rounded to the nearest integer. The resulting integers are the point values that make up the score when multiplied with each binary variables and summed. The one-year mortality probability was estimated using the score as the only variable in a LR model. Predictive power of the score, was evaluated using the 1695 admissions of the validation subset obtaining an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.7528, which outperforms the results obtained with Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), Oxford Acute Severity of Illness Score (OASIS) and Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPSII) scores on the same validation subset. Observed and predicted mortality rates within estimated probabilities deciles were compared graphically and found to be similar, indicating that the risk estimate obtained with the score is close to the observed mortality, it is also observed that the number of events (deaths) is indeed increasing as the outcome go from the decile with the lowest probabilities to the decile with the highest probabilities. Sepsis is a syndrome that carries a high mortality, 43.3% for the patients included in this study; therefore, tools that help clinicians to quickly and accurately predict a worse prognosis are needed. This work demonstrates the importance of customization of mortality prediction scores since the developed score provides better performance than traditional scoring systems.

Keywords: intensive care, logistic regression model, mortality prediction, sepsis, severity of illness, stochastic gradient boosting

Procedia PDF Downloads 182

Authors: Adane Gebresilassie Hailemariam, Belete Yilma Hirpaye

Abstract:

The enhanced concentrations of heavy metals, especially in sediments, may indicate human-induced perturbations rather than natural enrichment through geological weathering. Heavy metals are non-biodegradable, persist in the environment, and are concentrated up to the food chain, leading to enhanced levels in the liver and muscle tissues of fishes, aquatic bryophytes, and aquatic biota. Marine organisms, in general fish in particular, accumulate metals to concentrations many times higher than present in water or sediment as they can take up metals in their organs and concentrate at different levels. Thus, metals acquired through the food chain due to pollution are potential chemical hazards, threatening consumers. The Nile tilapia (oreochromic niloticus), catfish (clarius garpinus), and water samples were collected from five sampling sites, namely, inlet-1, inlet-2, center, outlet-1 and outlet-2 of Lake Chamo. The concentration of major and trace metals Na, K, Mg, Ca, Cr, Co, Ni, Mn and Cu in the two fish muscles, gill and liver, was determined using an atomic absorption spectrometer (AAS) and flame photometer (FP). Metal concentrations in the water have also been evaluated within the two consecutive seasons, winter (dry) and spring (wet). The results revealed that the concentration of those metals in Tilapia’s (O. niloticus) muscle, gill, and liver were Na 44.5, 35.1, 28, Mg 2.8, 8.41, 4.61, K 43, 32, 30, Ca 1.5, 6.0, 5.5, Cr 0.91, 1.2, 3.5, Co 3.0, 2.89, 2.62, Ni 0.94, 1.99, 2.2, Mn 1.23, 1.51, 1.6 and Cu 1.1, 1.99, 3.5 mg kg-1 respectively and in catfish’s muscle, gill and liver Na 25, 39, 41.5, Mg 4.8, 2.87, 6, K 29, 38, 40, Ca 2.5, 8.10, 3.0, Cr 0.65, 3.5, 5.0, Co 2.62, 1.86, 1.73, Ni 1.10, 2.3, 3.1, Mn 1.54, 1.57, 1.59 and Cu 1.01, 1.10, 3.70 mg kg-1 respectively. The highest accumulation of Na and K were observed for tilapia muscle and catfish gill, Mg and Ca got higher in tilapia gill and catfish liver, while Co is higher in muscle of the two fish. The Cr, Ni, Mn and Cu levels were higher in the livers of the two fish species. In conculusion, metal toxicity through food chain is the current dangerous issue for human and othe animals. This needs deep focus to promot the health of living animals. The Details of the work are going to be discussed at the conference.

Keywords: bioaccumulation, catfish, essential metals, nile tilapia

Procedia PDF Downloads 40

Authors: M. Sadeghi, H. Pezeshk, R. Tusserkani, A. Sharifi Zarchi, A. Malekpour, M. Foroughmand, S. Goliaei, M. Totonchi, N. Ansari–Pour

Abstract:

The role and relative importance of intrinsic and extrinsic factors in the development of complex diseases such as cancer still remains a controversial issue. Determining the amount of variation explained by these factors needs experimental data and statistical models. These models are nevertheless based on the occurrence and accumulation of random mutational events during stem cell division, thus rendering cancer development a stochastic outcome. We demonstrate that not only individual genome sequencing is uninformative in determining cancer risk, but also assigning a unique genome sequence to any given individual (healthy or affected) is not meaningful. Current whole-genome sequencing approaches are therefore unlikely to realize the promise of personalized medicine. In conclusion, since genome sequence differs from cell to cell and changes over time, it seems that determining the risk factor of complex diseases based on genome sequence is somewhat unrealistic, and therefore, the resulting data are likely to be inherently uninformative.

Keywords: cancer risk, extrinsic factors, genome sequencing, intrinsic factors

Procedia PDF Downloads 239

Authors: Arezoo Heidary, Abolfazl Mirzazadeh, Aref Gholami-Qadikolaei

Abstract:

In the business environment it is very common that a lot received may not be equal to quantity ordered. in this work, a random disturbance in a received quantity is considered. It is assumed a maximum allowable limit for storage space and inventory investment.The impact of lead time and ordering cost reductions once they act dependently is also investigated. Further, considering a mixture of back order and lost sales for allowable shortage system, the effect of investment on reducing lost sale rate is analyzed. For the proposed control system, a Lagrangian method is applied in order to solve the problem and an algorithmic procedure is utilized to achieve optimal solution with the global minimum expected cost. Finally, proves on concavity and convexity of the model in the decision variables are shown.

Keywords: stochastic inventory system, lead time, ordering cost, lost sale rate, inventory constraints, random disturbance

Procedia PDF Downloads 387

Authors: Vijay Vir Singh

Abstract:

This work is focused studying the Linux operating system connected in a LAN (local area network). The STAR topology (to be called subsystem-1) and BUS topology (to be called subsystem-2) are taken into account, which are placed at two different locations and connected to a server through a hub. In the both topologies BUS topology and STAR topology, we have assumed n clients. The system has two types of failures i.e. partial failure and complete failure. Further, the partial failure has been categorized as minor and major partial failure. It is assumed that the minor partial failure degrades the sub-systems and the major partial failure make the subsystem break down mode. The system may completely fail due to failure of server hacking and blocking etc. The system is studied using supplementary variable technique and Laplace transform by using different types of failure and two types of repair. The various measures of reliability for example, availability of system, reliability of system, MTTF, profit function for different parametric values have been discussed.

Keywords: star topology, bus topology, blocking, hacking, Linux operating system, Gumbel-Hougaard family copula, supplementary variable

Procedia PDF Downloads 333

Authors: Rita Emília Szabó, Róbert Polanek, Tünde Tőkés, Zoltán Szabó, Szabolcs Czifrus, Katalin Hideghéty

Abstract:

Purpose: Several feature of zebrafish are making them amenable for investigation on therapeutic approaches such as ionizing radiation. The establishment of zebrafish model for comprehensive radiobiological research stands in the focus of our investigation, comparing the radiation effect curves of neutron and photon irradiation. Our final aim is to develop an appropriate vertebrate model in order to investigate the relative biological effectiveness of laser driven ionizing radiation. Methods and Materials: After careful dosimetry series of viable zebrafish embryos were exposed to a single fraction whole-body neutron-irradiation (1,25; 1,875; 2; 2,5 Gy) at the research reactor of the Technical University of Budapest and to conventional 6 MeV photon beam at 24 hour post-fertilization (hpf). The survival and morphologic abnormalities (pericardial edema, spine curvature) of each embryo were assessed for each experiment at 24-hour intervals from the point of fertilization up to 168 hpf (defining the dose lethal for 50% (LD50)). Results: In the zebrafish embryo model LD50 at 20 Gy dose level was defined and the same lethality were found at 2 Gy dose from the reactor neutron beam resulting RBE of 10. Dose-dependent organ perturbations were detected on macroscopic (shortening of the body length, spine curvature, microcephaly, micro-ophthalmia, micrognathia, pericardial edema, and inhibition of yolk sac resorption) and microscopic (marked cellular changes in skin, cardiac, gastrointestinal system) with the same magnitude of dose difference. Conclusion: In our observations, we found that zebrafish embryo model can be used for investigating the effects of different type of ionizing radiation and this system proved to be highly efficient vertebrate model for preclinical examinations.

Keywords: ionizing radiation, LD50, relative biological effectiveness, zebrafish embryo

Procedia PDF Downloads 281

Authors: Mohammad Ebrahim Arbabian

Abstract:

This paper investigates the impact of 3D printing, also known as additive manufacturing, on a multi-item supply chain comprising a manufacturer and retailer. Operating under a wholesale-price contract and catering to stochastic customer demand, this study delves into the largely unexplored realm of how 3D printing technology reshapes supply chain dynamics. A distinguishing aspect of 3D printing is its versatility in producing various product types, yet its slower production pace compared to traditional methods poses a challenge. We analyze the trade-off between 3D printing's limited capacity and its enhancement of production flexibility. By delineating the economic circumstances favoring 3D printing adoption by the manufacturer, we establish the Stackelberg equilibrium in the retailer-manufacturer game. Additionally, we determine optimal order quantities for the retailer considering 3D printing as an option for the manufacturer, ascertain optimal wholesale prices in the presence of 3D printing, and compute optimal profits for both parties involved in the supply chain.

Keywords: additive manufacturing, supply chain management, contract theory, Stackelberg game, optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 8

Authors: Golnar Behzadi, Michael O'Sullivan, Tava Olsen, Abraham Zhang

Abstract:

By definition, increasing supply chain resilience improves the supply chain’s ability to return to normal, or to an even more desirable situation, quickly and efficiently after being hit by a disruption. This is especially critical in agribusiness supply chains where the products are perishable and have a short life-cycle. In this paper, we propose a resilience metric to capture and improve the recovery process in terms of both performance and time, of an agribusiness supply chain following either supply or demand-side disruption. We build a model that determines optimal supply chain recovery planning decisions and selects the best resilient strategies that minimize the loss of profit during the recovery time window. The model is formulated as a two-stage stochastic mixed-integer linear programming problem and solved with a branch-and-cut algorithm. The results show that the optimal recovery schedule is highly dependent on the duration of the time-window allowed for recovery. In addition, the profit loss during recovery is reduced by utilizing the proposed resilient actions.

Keywords: agribusiness supply chain, recovery, resilience metric, risk management

Procedia PDF Downloads 361

Authors: Md. Mazharul Anwar, Md. Samim Hossain Molla, Md. Akkas Ali, Mian Sayeed Hassan

Abstract:

After 68 years, the agreement between Bangladesh and India was ratified on 6 June 2015 and Bangladesh received 111 Indian enclaves. Millions of farm household lived in these previous enclaves, being detached from the mainland of the country, they were socially, economically and educationally deprived people in the world. This study was undertaken to compare of the Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) and the constant returns to scale (CRS) and variable returns to scale (VRS) output-oriented DEA models, based on a sample of 300 farms from the three largest enclaves of Bangladesh in 2017. However, the aim of the study was not only to compare estimates of technical efficiency obtained from the two approaches, but also to examine the determinants of inefficiency. The results from both the approaches indicated that there is a potential for increasing farm production through efficiency improvement and that farmers' age, educational level, new technology dissemination and training on crop production technology have a significant effect on efficiency. The detection and measurement of technical inefficiency and its determinants can be used as a basis of policy recommendations.

Keywords: DEA approach, previous enclaves, SFA approach, technical inefficiency

Procedia PDF Downloads 95

Authors: Tugrul Oktay, Mehmet Konar, Mohamed Abdallah Mohamed, Murat Aydin, Firat Sal, Murat Onay, Mustafa Soylak

Abstract:

In this paper, it is aimed to improve autonomous flight performance of a load-carrying (payload: 3 kg and total: 6kg) unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) through active wing and horizontal tail active morphing and also integrated autopilot system parameters (i.e. P, I, D gains) and UAV parameters (i.e. extension ratios of wing and horizontal tail during flight) design. For this purpose, a loadcarrying UAV (i.e. ZANKA-II) is manufactured in Erciyes University, College of Aviation, Model Aircraft Laboratory is benefited. Optimum values of UAV parameters and autopilot parameters are obtained using a stochastic optimization method. Using this approach autonomous flight performance of UAV is substantially improved and also in some adverse weather conditions an opportunity for safe flight is satisfied. Active morphing and integrated design approach gives confidence, high performance and easy-utility request of UAV users.

Keywords: unmanned aerial vehicles, morphing, autopilots, autonomous performance

Procedia PDF Downloads 638