Search results for: spatial rainfall prediction

Authors: B. Baran, S. N. Kaptanoglu, M. Ocal, Y. Kagnici, E. Esen, E. Siyez, D. M. Siyez

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Infertility is the fact that couples cannot have children despite 1 year of unprotected sexual life. Infertility can be considered as an important problem affecting not only sexual life but also social and psychological conditions of couples. Learning about information about preventable factors related to infertility during university years plays an important role in preventing a possible infertility case in older ages. The possibility to facilitate access to information with the internet has provided the opportunity to reach a broad audience in the diverse learning environments and educational environment. Moreover, the internet has become a basic resource for the 21st-century learners. Providing information about infertility over the internet will enable more people to reach in a short time. When studies conducted abroad about infertility are examined, interactive websites and online education programs come to the fore. In Turkey, while there is no comprehensive online education program for university students, it seems that existing studies are aimed to make more advertisements for doctors or hospitals. In this study, it was aimed to design and develop online infertility prevention education for university students. Mayer’s Multimedia Learning Theory made up the framework for the online learning environment in this study. The results of the needs analysis collected from the university students in Turkey who were selected with sampling to represent the audience for online learning contributed to the design phase. In this study, an infertility prevention online education environment designed as a 4-week education was developed by explaining the theoretical basis and needs analysis results. As a result; in the development of the online environment, different kind of visual aids that will increase teaching were used in the environment of online education according to Mayer’s principles of extraneous processing (coherence, signaling, spatial contiguity, temporal contiguity, redundancy, expectation principles), essential processing (segmenting, pre-training, modality principles) and generative processing (multimedia, personalization, voice principles). For example, the important points in reproductive systems’ expression were emphasized by visuals in order to draw learners’ attention, and the presentation of the information was also supported by the human voice. In addition, because of the limited knowledge of university students in the subject, the issue of female reproductive and male reproductive systems was taught before preventable factors related to infertility. Furthermore, 3D video and augmented reality application were developed in order to embody female and male reproductive systems. In conclusion, this study aims to develop an interactive Online Infertility Prevention Education in which university students can easily access reliable information and evaluate their own level of knowledge about the subject. It is believed that the study will also guide the researchers who want to develop online education in this area as it contains design-stage decisions of interactive online infertility prevention education for university students.

Keywords: infertility, multimedia learning theory, online education, reproductive health

Procedia PDF Downloads 141

Authors: Tali Neta

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Humans’ impact on the environment has been incredibly brutal, with enormous plastic- and other pollutants (e.g., cigarette buds, paper cups, tires) worldwide. On land, litter costs taxpayers a fortune. Most of the litter pollution comes from the land, yet it is one of the greatest hazards to marine environments. Due to spatial and temporal limitations, previous litter data covered very small areas. Currently, smartphones can be used to obtain information on various pollutants (through citizen science), and they can greatly assist in acknowledging and mitigating the environmental impact of litter. Litter app data, such as the Litterati, are available for study through a global map only; these data are not available for download, and it is not clear whether irrelevant hashtags have been eliminated. Instagram and Twitter open-source geospatial data are available for download; however, these are considered inaccurate, computationally challenging, and impossible to quantify. Therefore, the resulting data are of poor quality. Other downloadable geospatial data (e.g., Marine Debris Tracker8 and Clean Swell10) are focused on marine- rather than terrestrial litter. Therefore, accurate terrestrial geospatial documentation of litter distribution is needed to improve environmental awareness. The current research employed citizen science to examine litter distribution in Lethbridge, Alberta, Canada, using the OpenLitterMap (OLM) app. The OLM app is an application used to track litter worldwide, and it can mark litter locations through photo georeferencing, which can be presented through GIS-designed maps. The OLM app provides open-source data that can be downloaded. It also offers information on various litter types and “hot-spots” areas where litter accumulates. In this study, Lethbridge College students collected litter data with the OLM app. The students produced GIS Story Maps (interactive web GIS illustrations) and presented these to school children to improve awareness of litter's impact on environmental health. Preliminary results indicate that towards the Lethbridge Coulees’ (valleys) East edges, the amount of litter significantly increased due to shrubs’ presence, that acted as litter catches. As wind generally travels from west to east in Lethbridge, litter in West-Lethbridge often finds its way down in the east part of the coulees. The students’ documented various litter types, while the majority (75%) included plastic and paper food packaging. The students also found metal wires, broken glass, plastic bottles, golf balls, and tires. Presentations of the Story Maps to school children had a significant impact, as the children voluntarily collected litter during school recess, and they were looking into solutions to reduce litter. Further litter distribution documentation through Citizen Science is needed to improve public awareness. Additionally, future research will be focused on Drone imagery of highly concentrated litter areas. Finally, a time series analysis of litter distribution will help us determine whether public education through Citizen Science and Story Maps can assist in reducing litter and reaching a cleaner and healthier environment.

Keywords: citizen science, litter pollution, Open Litter Map, GIS Story Map

Procedia PDF Downloads 50

Authors: Tingneyuc Sekac, Sujoy Kumar Jana, Indrajit Pal, Dilip Kumar Pal

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Tectonism induced Tsunami, landslide, ground shaking leading to liquefaction, infrastructure collapse, conflagration are the common earthquake hazards that are experienced worldwide. Apart from human casualty, the damage to built-up infrastructures like roads, bridges, buildings and other properties are the collateral episodes. The appropriate planning must precede with a view to safeguarding people’s welfare, infrastructures and other properties at a site based on proper evaluation and assessments of the potential level of earthquake hazard. The information or output results can be used as a tool that can assist in minimizing risk from earthquakes and also can foster appropriate construction design and formulation of building codes at a particular site. Different disciplines adopt different approaches in assessing and monitoring earthquake hazard throughout the world. For the present study, GIS and Remote Sensing potentials were utilized to evaluate and assess earthquake hazards of the study region. Subsurface geology and geomorphology were the common features or factors that were assessed and integrated within GIS environment coupling with seismicity data layers like; Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA), historical earthquake magnitude and earthquake depth to evaluate and prepare liquefaction potential zones (LPZ) culminating in earthquake hazard zonation of our study sites. The liquefaction can eventuate in the aftermath of severe ground shaking with amenable site soil condition, geology and geomorphology. The latter site conditions or the wave propagation media were assessed to identify the potential zones. The precept has been that during any earthquake event the seismic wave is generated and propagates from earthquake focus to the surface. As it propagates, it passes through certain geological or geomorphological and specific soil features, where these features according to their strength/stiffness/moisture content, aggravates or attenuates the strength of wave propagation to the surface. Accordingly, the resulting intensity of shaking may or may not culminate in the collapse of built-up infrastructures. For the case of earthquake hazard zonation, the overall assessment was carried out through integrating seismicity data layers with LPZ. Multi-criteria Evaluation (MCE) with Saaty’s Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) was adopted for this study. It is a GIS technology that involves integration of several factors (thematic layers) that can have a potential contribution to liquefaction triggered by earthquake hazard. The factors are to be weighted and ranked in the order of their contribution to earthquake induced liquefaction. The weightage and ranking assigned to each factor are to be normalized with AHP technique. The spatial analysis tools i.e., Raster calculator, reclassify, overlay analysis in ArcGIS 10 software were mainly employed in the study. The final output of LPZ and Earthquake hazard zones were reclassified to ‘Very high’, ‘High’, ‘Moderate’, ‘Low’ and ‘Very Low’ to indicate levels of hazard within a study region.

Keywords: hazard micro-zonation, liquefaction, multi criteria evaluation, tectonism

Procedia PDF Downloads 239

Authors: Dila Ram Bhandari

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Throughout the 20th century, new governments were created where identities such as ethnic, religious, linguistic, caste, communal, tribal, and others played a part in the development of constitutions and the legal system of victim and criminal justice. Acute issues with extremism, poverty, environmental degradation, cybercrimes, human rights violations, crime against, and victimization of both individuals and groups have recently plagued South Asian nations. Everyday massive number of crimes are steadfast, these frequent crimes have made the lives of common citizens restless. Crimes are one of the major threats to society and also for civilization. Crime is a bone of contention that can create a societal disturbance. The old-style crime solving practices are unable to live up to the requirement of existing crime situations. Crime analysis is one of the most important activities of the majority of intelligent and law enforcement organizations all over the world. The South Asia region lacks such a regional coordination mechanism, unlike central Asia of Asia Pacific regions, to facilitate criminal intelligence sharing and operational coordination related to organized crime, including illicit drug trafficking and money laundering. There have been numerous conversations in recent years about using data mining technology to combat crime and terrorism. The Data Detective program from Sentient as a software company, uses data mining techniques to support the police (Sentient, 2017). The goals of this internship are to test out several predictive model solutions and choose the most effective and promising one. First, extensive literature reviews on data mining, crime analysis, and crime data mining were conducted. Sentient offered a 7-year archive of crime statistics that were daily aggregated to produce a univariate dataset. Moreover, a daily incidence type aggregation was performed to produce a multivariate dataset. Each solution's forecast period lasted seven days. Statistical models and neural network models were the two main groups into which the experiments were split. For the crime data, neural networks fared better than statistical models. This study gives a general review of the applied statistics and neural network models. A detailed image of each model's performance on the available data and generalizability is provided by a comparative analysis of all the models on a comparable dataset. Obviously, the studies demonstrated that, in comparison to other models, Gated Recurrent Units (GRU) produced greater prediction. The crime records of 2005-2019 which was collected from Nepal Police headquarter and analysed by R programming. In conclusion, gated recurrent unit implementation could give benefit to police in predicting crime. Hence, time series analysis using GRU could be a prospective additional feature in Data Detective.

Keywords: time series analysis, forecasting, ARIMA, machine learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 137

Authors: Ramez F. Saad, Ahmad Kobaissi, Bernard Amiaud, Julien Ruelle, Emile Benizri

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Agromining is a new technology that establishes agricultural systems on ultramafic soils in order to produce valuable metal compounds such as nickel (Ni), with the final aim of restoring a soil's agricultural functions. But ultramafic soils are characterized by low fertility levels and this can limit yields of hyperaccumulators and metal phytoextraction. The objectives of the present work were to test if the association of a hyperaccumulating plant (Alyssum murale) and a Fabaceae (Vicia sativa var. Prontivesa) could induce changes in physicochemical characteristics of a serpentine soil and in root architecture of a hyperaccumulating plant then lead to efficient agromining practices through soil quality improvement. Based on standard agricultural systems, consisting in the association of legumes and another crop such as wheat or rape, a three-month rhizobox experiment was carried out to study the effect of the co-cropping (Co) or rotation (Ro) of a hyperaccumulating plant (Alyssum murale) with a legume (Vicia sativa) and incorporating legume biomass to soil, in comparison with mineral fertilization (FMo), on the structure and physicochemical properties of an ultramafic soil and on root architecture. All parameters measured (biomass, C and N contents, and taken-up Ni) on Alyssum murale conducted in co-cropping system showed the highest values followed by the mineral fertilization and rotation (Co > FMo > Ro), except for root nickel yield for which rotation was better than the mineral fertilization (Ro > FMo). The rhizosphere soil of Alyssum murale in co-cropping had larger soil particles size and better aggregates stability than other treatments. Using geostatistics, co-cropped Alyssum murale showed a greater root surface area spatial distribution. Moreover, co-cropping and rotation-induced lower soil DTPA-extractable nickel concentrations than other treatments, but higher pH values. Alyssum murale co-cropped with a legume showed a higher biomass production, improved soil physical characteristics and enhanced nickel phytoextraction. This study showed that the introduction of a legume into Ni agromining systems could improve yields of dry biomass of the hyperaccumulating plant used and consequently, the yields of Ni. Our strategy can decrease the need to apply fertilizers and thus minimizes the risk of nitrogen leaching and underground water pollution. Co-cropping of Alyssum murale with the legume showed a clear tendency to increase nickel phytoextraction and plant biomass in comparison to rotation treatment and fertilized mono-culture. In addition, co-cropping improved soil physical characteristics and soil structure through larger and more stabilized aggregates. It is, therefore, reasonable to conclude that the use of legumes in Ni-agromining systems could be a good strategy to reduce chemical inputs and to restore soil agricultural functions. Improving the agromining system by the replacement of inorganic fertilizers could simultaneously be a safe way of rehabilitating degraded soils and a method to restore soil quality and functions leading to the recovery of ecosystem services.

Keywords: plant association, legumes, hyperaccumulating plants, ultramafic soil physicochemical properties

Procedia PDF Downloads 144

Authors: K. Bose

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India is one of the largest democracies in the global south, which demonstrates the highest social enterprise activities in the subcontinent. Although there has been a meteoric rise in social enterprise activities, it is not a new phenomenon, as it dates back to Vinoba Bhave's Land Gift movement in 1950. India also has a rich history of a welfare mix where non-governmental organisations played a significant role in the public welfare provision. Lately, the government’s impetus on entrepreneurship has contributed to a burgeoning social enterprise sector in the country; however, there is a lack in understanding of how social enterprises are constructed in India. Social entrepreneurship as practice has been conceptualised as a multi-dimensional concept, which is predominantly explained through the characteristics of a social entrepreneur. Social enterprise organisation, which is a component of social entrepreneurship practice are also classified through the role of the social entrepreneur; thus making social entrepreneur a vital unit shaping organisation and practice. Hence, individual identity of the social entrepreneur acts as a steering agent for defining organisation and practice. Individual identity does not operate in a vacuum and different isomorphic pressures (resource-rich actors/institutions) leads to negotiation in these identities. Dey and Teasdale's work investigated this identity work of non-profit practitioners within the practice of social enterprises in England. Furthermore, the construction of social enterprises is predominantly understood through two approaches i.e. an institutional logic perspective emerging from Europe and process and outcome perspective derived from the United States. These two approaches explain social enterprise as an inevitable institutional outcome in a linear and simplistic manner. Such linear institutional transition is inferred from structural policy reforms and austerity measures adopted by the government, which led to heightened competition for funds in the non-profit sector. These political and economic challenges were specific to the global north, which is different from transitions experienced in the global south, thus further investigation would help understand social enterprise activities as a contextual phenomenon. There is a growing interest in understanding the role of the context within the entrepreneurship literature, additionally, there is growing recognition in entrepreneurship research that economic behaviour is realised far better within its historical, temporal, institutional, spatial and social context, as these contexts provide boundaries to individuals in terms of opportunities and actions. Social enterprise phenomenon too is realised as contextual phenomenon though it differs from traditional entrepreneurship in terms of its dual mission (social and economic), however, the understanding of the role of context in social entrepreneurship has been limited. Hence, this work in progress study integrates identity work of social entrepreneur and the role of context. It investigates the identities of social entrepreneur and its negotiation within its context. Further, how this negotiated identity transcends into organisational practice in turn shaping how social enterprises are constructed in a specific region. The study employs a qualitative inquiry of semi-structured interviews and ethnographic institutionalism. Interviews were analysed using critical discourse analysis and the preliminary outcomes are currently a work in progress.

Keywords: context, Dey and Teasdale, identity, social entrepreneurs, social enterprise, social entrepreneurship

Procedia PDF Downloads 153

Authors: Nejmeddine Ouhichi, Fethi Lachaal, Radhouane Hamdi, Olivier Grunberger

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Located in Cap Bon peninsula (Tunisia), the Lebna dam was built in 1987 to balance local water salt intrusion taking place in the coastal aquifer of Korba. The first intention was to reduce coastal groundwater over-pumping by supplying surface water to a large irrigation system. The unpredicted beneficial effect was recorded with the occurrence of a direct localized recharge to the coastal aquifer by leakage through the geological material of the southern bank of the lake. The hydrological balance of the reservoir dam gave an estimation of the annual leakage volume, but dynamic processes and sound quantification of recharge inputs are still required to understand the localized effect of the recharge in terms of piezometry and quality. Present work focused on simulating the recharge process to confirm the hypothesis, and established a sound quantification of the water supply to the coastal aquifer and extend it to multi-annual effects. A spatial frame of 30km² was used for modeling. Intensive outcrops and geophysical surveys based on 68 electrical resistivity soundings were used to characterize the aquifer 3D geometry and the limit of the Plio-quaternary geological material concerned by the underground flow paths. Permeabilities were determined using 17 pumping tests on wells and piezometers. Six seasonal piezometric surveys on 71 wells around southern reservoir dam banks were performed during the 2019-2021 period. Eight monitoring boreholes of high frequency (15min) piezometric data were used to examine dynamical aspects. Model boundary conditions were specified using the geophysics interpretations coupled with the piezometric maps. The dam-groundwater flow model was performed using Visual MODFLOW software. Firstly, permanent state calibration based on the first piezometric map of February 2019 was established to estimate the permanent flow related to the different reservoir levels. Secondly, piezometric data for the 2019-2021 period were used for transient state calibration and to confirm the robustness of the model. Preliminary results confirmed the temporal link between the reservoir level and the localized recharge flow with a strong threshold effect for levels below 16 m.a.s.l. The good agreement of computed flow through recharge cells on the southern banks and hydrological budget of the reservoir open the path to future simulation scenarios of the dilution plume imposed by the localized recharge. The dam reservoir-groundwater flow-model simulation results approve a potential for storage of up to 17mm/year in existing wells, under gravity-feed conditions during level increases on the reservoir into the three years of operation. The Lebna dam groundwater flow model characterized a spatiotemporal relation between groundwater and surface water.

Keywords: leakage, MODFLOW, saltwater intrusion, surface water-groundwater interaction

Procedia PDF Downloads 114

Authors: Kyoung Lee

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Numerous aerobic bacteria have the ability to form multicellular communities on the surface layer of the air-liquid (A-L) interface as a biofilm called a pellicle. Pellicles occupied at the A-L interface will benefit from the utilization of oxygen from air and nutrient from liquid. Buoyancy of cells can be obtained by high surface tension at the A-L interface. Thus, formation of pellicles is an adaptive advantage in utilization of excess nutrients in the standing culture where oxygen depletion is easily set up due to rapid cell growth. In natural environments, pellicles are commonly observed on the surface of lake or pond contaminated with pollutants. Previously, we have shown that when cultured in standing LB media an alkylphenol-degrading bacteria Pseudomonas alkylphenolia KL28 forms pellicles in a diameter of 0.3-0.5 mm with a thickness of ca 40 µm. The pellicles have unique features for possessing flatness and unusual rigidity. In this study, the biogenesis of the circular pellicles has been investigated by observing the cell organization at early stages of pellicle formation and cell arrangements in pellicle, providing a clue for highly organized cellular arrangement to be adapted to the air-liquid niche. Here, we first monitored developmental patterns of pellicle from monolayer to multicellular organization. Pellicles were shaped by controlled growth of constituent cells which accumulate extracellular polymeric substance. The initial two-dimensional growth was transited to multilayers by a constraint force of accumulated self-produced extracellular polymeric substance. Experiments showed that pellicles are formed by clonal growth and even with knock-out of genes for flagella and pilus formation. In contrast, the mutants in the epm gene cluster for alginate-like polymer biosynthesis were incompetent in cell alignment for initial two-dimensional growth of pellicles. Electron microscopic and confocal laser scanning microscopic studies showed that the fully matured structures are highly packed by matrix-encased cells which have special arrangements. The cells on the surface of the pellicle lie relatively flat and inside longitudinally cross packed. HPLC analysis of the extrapolysaccharide (EPS) hydrolysate from the colonies from LB agar showed a composition with L-fucose, L-rhamnose, D-galactosamine, D-glucosamine, D-galactose, D-glucose, D-mannose. However, that from pellicles showed similar neutral and amino sugar profile but missing galactose. Furthermore, uronic acid analysis of EPS hydrolysates by HPLC showed that mannuronic acid was detected from pellicles not from colonies, indicating the epm-derived polymer is critical for pellicle formation as proved by the epm mutants. This study verified that for the circular pellicle architecture P. alkylphenolica KL28 cells utilized EPS building blocks different from that used for colony construction. These results indicate that P. alkylphenolica KL28 is a clever architect that dictates unique cell arrangements with selected EPS matrix material to construct sophisticated building, circular biofilm pellicles.

Keywords: biofilm, matrix, pellicle, pseudomonas

Procedia PDF Downloads 135

Authors: Ntandazo Dlatu, Benjamin Longo-Mbenza, Andre Renzaho, Ruffin Appalata, Yolande Yvonne Valeria Matoumona Mavoungou, Mbenza Ben Longo, Kenneth Ekoru, Blaise Makoso, Gedeon Longo Longo

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Background: The gap between complexities related to the integration of Tuberculosis /HIV control and evidence-based knowledge motivated the initiation of the study. Therefore, the objective of this study was to explore correlations between national TB management guidelines, multiple deprivation indexes, quantiles, components and levels of Tuberculosis control programme using mathematical modeling in rural O.R. Tambo District Health Facilities, South Africa. Methods: The study design used mixed secondary data analysis and cross-sectional analysis between 2009 and 2013 across O.R Tambo District, Eastern Cape, South Africa using univariate/ bivariate analysis, linear multiple regression models, and multivariate discriminant analysis. Health inequalities indicators and component of an impediment to the tuberculosis control programme were evaluated. Results: In total, 62 400 records for TB notification were analyzed for the period 2009-2013. There was a significant but negative between Financial Year Expenditure (r= -0.894; P= 0.041) Seropositive HIV status(r= -0.979; P= 0.004), Population Density (r = -0.881; P= 0.048) and the number of TB defaulter in all TB cases. It was shown unsuccessful control of TB management program through correlations between numbers of new PTB smear positive, TB defaulter new smear-positive, TB failure all TB, Pulmonary Tuberculosis case finding index and deprivation-concentration-dispersion index. It was shown successful TB program control through significant and negative associations between declining numbers of death in co-infection of HIV and TB, TB deaths all TB and SMIAD gradient/ deprivation-concentration-dispersion index. The multivariate linear model was summarized by unadjusted r of 96%, adjusted R2 of 95 %, Standard Error of estimate of 0.110, R2 changed of 0.959 and significance for variance change for P=0.004 to explain the prediction of TB defaulter in all TB with equation y= 8.558-0.979 x number of HIV seropositive. After adjusting for confounding factors (PTB case finding the index, TB defaulter new smear-positive, TB death in all TB, TB defaulter all TB, and TB failure in all TB). The HIV and TB death, as well as new PTB smear positive, were identified as the most important, significant, and independent indicator to discriminate most deprived deprivation index far from other deprivation quintiles 2-5 using discriminant analysis. Conclusion: Elimination of poverty such as overcrowding, lack of sanitation and environment of highest burden of HIV might end the TB threat in O.R Tambo District, Eastern Cape, South Africa. Furthermore, ongoing adequate budget comprehensive, holistic and collaborative initiative towards Sustainable Developmental Goals (SDGs) is necessary for complete elimination of TB in poor O.R Tambo District.

Keywords: tuberculosis, HIV/AIDS, success, failure, control program, health inequalities, South Africa

Procedia PDF Downloads 138

Authors: Lijuan Li

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Nitric oxide (NO) has become a fascinating entity in biological chemistry over the past few years. It is a gaseous lipophilic radical molecule that plays important roles in several physiological and pathophysiological processes in mammals, including activating the immune response, serving as a neurotransmitter, regulating the cardiovascular system, and acting as an endothelium-derived relaxing factor. NO functions in eukaryotes both as a signal molecule at nanomolar concentrations and as a cytotoxic agent at micromolar concentrations. The latter arises from the ability of NO to react readily with a variety of cellular targets leading to thiol S-nitrosation, amino acid N-nitrosation, and nitrosative DNA damage. Nitric oxide can readily bind to metals to give metal-nitrosyl (M-NO) complexes. Some of these species are known to play roles in biological NO storage and transport. These complexes have different biological, photochemical, or spectroscopic properties due to distinctive structural features. These recent discoveries have spawned a great interest in the development of transition metal complexes containing NO, particularly its iron complexes that are central to the role of nitric oxide in the body. Spectroscopic evidence would appear to implicate species of “Fe(NO)2+” type in a variety of processes ranging from polymerization, carcinogenesis, to nitric oxide stores. Our research focuses on isolation and structural studies of non-heme iron nitrosyls that mimic biologically active compounds and can potentially be used for anticancer drug therapy. We have shown that reactions between Fe(NO)2(CO)2 and a series of imidazoles generated new non-heme iron nitrosyls of the form Fe(NO)2(L)2 [L = imidazole, 1-methylimidazole, 4-methylimidazole, benzimidazole, 5,6-dimethylbenzimidazole, and L-histidine] and a tetrameric cluster of [Fe(NO)2(L)]4 (L=Im, 4-MeIm, BzIm, and Me2BzIm), resulted from the interactions of Fe(NO)2 with a series of substituted imidazoles was prepared. Recently, a series of sulfur bridged iron di nitrosyl complexes with the general formula of [Fe(µ-RS)(NO)2]2 (R = n-Pr, t-Bu, 6-methyl-2-pyridyl, and 4,6-dimethyl-2-pyrimidyl), were synthesized by the reaction of Fe(NO)2(CO)2 with thiols or thiolates. Their structures and properties were studied by IR, UV-vis, 1H-NMR, EPR, electrochemistry, X-ray diffraction analysis and DFT calculations. IR spectra of these complexes display one weak and two strong NO stretching frequencies (νNO) in solution, but only two strong νNO in solid. DFT calculations suggest that two spatial isomers of these complexes bear 3 Kcal energy difference in solution. The paramagnetic complexes [Fe2(µ-RS)2(NO)4]-, have also been investigated by EPR spectroscopy. Interestingly, the EPR spectra of complexes exhibit an isotropic signal of g = 1.998 - 2.004 without hyperfine splitting. The observations are consistent with the results of calculations, which reveal that the unpaired electron dominantly delocalize over the two sulfur and two iron atoms. The difference of the g values between the reduced form of iron-sulfur clusters and the typical monomeric di nitrosyl iron complexes is explained, for the first time, by of the difference in unpaired electron distributions between the two types of complexes, which provides the theoretical basis for the use of g value as a spectroscopic tool to differentiate these biologically active complexes.

Keywords: di nitrosyl iron complex, metal nitrosyl, non-heme iron, nitric oxide

Procedia PDF Downloads 280

Authors: Chitresh Prasad, Arvind Ramesh, Aditya Virkar, Karan Dholkaria, Vinayak Malhotra

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Solid Propellant Rocket is a rocket that utilises a combination of a solid Oxidizer and a solid Fuel. Success in Solid Rocket Motor design and development depends significantly on knowledge of burning rate behaviour of the selected solid propellant under all motor operating conditions and design limit conditions. Most Solid Motor Rockets consist of the Main Engine, along with multiple Boosters that provide an additional thrust to the space-bound vehicle. Though widely used, they have been eclipsed by Liquid Propellant Rockets, because of their better performance characteristics. The addition of a catalyst such as Iron Oxide, on the other hand, can drastically enhance the performance of a Solid Rocket. This scientific investigation tries to emulate the working of a Solid Rocket using Sparklers and Energized Candles, with a central Energized Candle acting as the Main Engine and surrounding Sparklers acting as the Booster. The Energized Candle is made of Paraffin Wax, with Magnesium filings embedded in it’s wick. The Sparkler is made up of 45% Barium Nitrate, 35% Iron, 9% Aluminium, 10% Dextrin and the remaining composition consists of Boric Acid. The Magnesium in the Energized Candle, and the combination of Iron and Aluminium in the Sparkler, act as catalysts and enhance the burn rates of both materials. This combustion of Metallized Propellants has an influence over the regression rate of the subject candle. The experimental parameters explored here are Separation Distance, Systematically varying Configuration and Layout Symmetry. The major performance parameter under observation is the Regression Rate of the Energized Candle. The rate of regression is significantly affected by the orientation and configuration of the sparklers, which usually act as heat sources for the energized candle. The Overall Efficiency of any engine is factorised by the thermal and propulsive efficiencies. Numerous efforts have been made to improve one or the other. This investigation focuses on the Orientation of Rocket Motor Design to maximize their Overall Efficiency. The primary objective is to analyse the Flame Spread Rate variations of the energized candle, which resembles the solid rocket propellant used in the first stage of rocket operation thereby affecting the Specific Impulse values in a Rocket, which in turn have a deciding impact on their Time of Flight. Another objective of this research venture is to determine the effectiveness of the key controlling parameters explored. This investigation also emulates the exhaust gas interactions of the Solid Rocket through concurrent ignition of the Energized Candle and Sparklers, and their behaviour is analysed. Modern space programmes intend to explore the universe outside our solar system. To accomplish these goals, it is necessary to design a launch vehicle which is capable of providing incessant propulsion along with better efficiency for vast durations. The main motivation of this study is to enhance Rocket performance and their Overall Efficiency through better designing and optimization techniques, which will play a crucial role in this human conquest for knowledge.

Keywords: design modifications, improving overall efficiency, metallized combustion, regression rate variations

Procedia PDF Downloads 154

Authors: Pau Rodriguez, Jordi Gonzalez, Josep M. Gonfaus, Xavier Roca

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Image sharing in social networks has increased exponentially in the past years. Officially, there are 600 million Instagrammers uploading around 100 million photos and videos per day. Consequently, there is a need for developing new tools to understand the content expressed in shared images, which will greatly benefit social media communication and will enable broad and promising applications in education, advertisement, entertainment, and also psychology. Following these trends, our work aims to take advantage of the existing relationship between text and personality, already demonstrated by multiple researchers, so that we can prove that there exists a relationship between images and personality as well. To achieve this goal, we consider that images posted on social networks are typically conditioned on specific words, or hashtags, therefore any relationship between text and personality can also be observed with those posted images. Our proposal makes use of the most recent image understanding models based on neural networks to process the vast amount of data generated by social users to determine those images most correlated with personality traits. The final aim is to train a weakly-supervised image-based model for personality assessment that can be used even when textual data is not available, which is an increasing trend. The procedure is described next: we explore the images directly publicly shared by users based on those accompanying texts or hashtags most strongly related to personality traits as described by the OCEAN model. These images will be used for personality prediction since they have the potential to convey more complex ideas, concepts, and emotions. As a result, the use of images in personality questionnaires will provide a deeper understanding of respondents than through words alone. In other words, from the images posted with specific tags, we train a deep learning model based on neural networks, that learns to extract a personality representation from a picture and use it to automatically find the personality that best explains such a picture. Subsequently, a deep neural network model is learned from thousands of images associated with hashtags correlated to OCEAN traits. We then analyze the network activations to identify those pictures that maximally activate the neurons: the most characteristic visual features per personality trait will thus emerge since the filters of the convolutional layers of the neural model are learned to be optimally activated depending on each personality trait. For example, among the pictures that maximally activate the high Openness trait, we can see pictures of books, the moon, and the sky. For high Conscientiousness, most of the images are photographs of food, especially healthy food. The high Extraversion output is mostly activated by pictures of a lot of people. In high Agreeableness images, we mostly see flower pictures. Lastly, in the Neuroticism trait, we observe that the high score is maximally activated by animal pets like cats or dogs. In summary, despite the huge intra-class and inter-class variabilities of the images associated to each OCEAN traits, we found that there are consistencies between visual patterns of those images whose hashtags are most correlated to each trait.

Keywords: emotions and effects of mood, social impact theory in social psychology, social influence, social structure and social networks

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Authors: A. Odoom, A. Salama, H. Ibrahim

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Hydrogen is a clean source of energy for power production and transportation. The main source of hydrogen in this research is biodiesel. Glycerol also called glycerine is a by-product of biodiesel production by transesterification of vegetable oils and methanol. This is a reliable and environmentally-friendly source of hydrogen production than fossil fuels. A typical composition of crude glycerol comprises of glycerol, water, organic and inorganic salts, soap, methanol and small amounts of glycerides. Crude glycerol has limited industrial application due to its low purity thus, the usage of crude glycerol can significantly enhance the sustainability and production of biodiesel. Reforming techniques is an approach for hydrogen production mainly Steam Reforming (SR), Autothermal Reforming (ATR) and Partial Oxidation Reforming (POR). SR produces high hydrogen conversions and yield but is highly endothermic whereas POR is exothermic. On the downside, PO yields lower hydrogen as well as large amount of side reactions. ATR which is a fusion of partial oxidation reforming and steam reforming is thermally neutral because net reactor heat duty is zero. It has relatively high hydrogen yield, selectivity as well as limits coke formation. The complex chemical processes that take place during the production phases makes it relatively difficult to construct a reliable and robust numerical model. Numerical model is a tool to mimic reality and provide insight into the influence of the parameters. In this work, we introduce a finite volume numerical study for an 'in-house' lab-scale experiment of ATR. Previous numerical studies on this process have considered either using Comsol or nodal finite difference analysis. Since Comsol is a commercial package which is not readily available everywhere and lab-scale experiment can be considered well mixed in the radial direction. One spatial dimension suffices to capture the essential feature of ATR, in this work, we consider developing our own numerical approach using MATLAB. A continuum fixed bed reactor is modelled using MATLAB with both pseudo homogeneous and heterogeneous models. The drawback of nodal finite difference formulation is that it is not locally conservative which means that materials and momenta can be generated inside the domain as an artifact of the discretization. Control volume, on the other hand, is locally conservative and suites very well problems where materials are generated and consumed inside the domain. In this work, species mass balance, Darcy’s equation and energy equations are solved using operator splitting technique. Therefore, diffusion-like terms are discretized implicitly while advection-like terms are discretized explicitly. An upwind scheme is adapted for the advection term to ensure accuracy and positivity. Comparisons with the experimental data show very good agreements which build confidence in our modeling approach. The models obtained were validated and optimized for better results.

Keywords: autothermal reforming, crude glycerol, hydrogen, numerical model

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Authors: Rishana Bilimoria, Selina Tang, Sajni Shah, Marianne Henien, Christopher Sproat

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Temporomandibular disorders (TMD) may affect up to a third of the general population, and there is evidence demonstrating the majority of Myofascial TMD cases improve after education and conservative measures. In 2015 our department implemented a modified care pathway for myofascial TMD patients in an attempt to improve the patient journey. This involved the use of an interactive group therapy approach to deliver education, reinforce conservative measures and promote self-management. Patient reported experience measures from the new group clinic revealed 71% patient satisfaction. This service is efficient in improving aspects of health status while reducing health-care costs and redistributing clinical time. Since its’ establishment, 52 hours of clinical time, resources and funding have been redirected effectively. This Quality Improvement Project was initiated because it was felt that this new service was being underutilised by our surgical teams. The ‘Plan-Do-Study-Act cycle’ (PDSA) framework was employed to analyse utilisation of the service: The ‘plan’ stage involved outlining our aims: to raise awareness amongst clinicians of the unified care pathway and to increase referral to this clinic. The ‘do’ stage involved collecting data from a sample of 96 patients over 4 month period to ascertain the proportion of Myofascial TMD patients who were correctly referred to the designated clinic. ‘Suitable’ patients who weren’t referred were identified. The ‘Study’ phase involved analysis of results, which revealed that 77% of suitable patients weren’t referred to the designated clinic. They were reviewed on other clinics, which are often overbooked, or managed by junior staff members. This correlated with our original prediction. Barriers to referral included: lack of awareness of the clinic, individual consultant treatment preferences and patient, reluctance to be referred to a ‘group’ clinic. The ‘Act’ stage involved presenting our findings to the team at a clinical governance meeting. This included demonstration of the clinical effectiveness of the care-pathway and explaining the referral route and criteria. In light of the evaluation results, it was decided to keep the group clinic and maximize utilisation. The second cycle of data collection following these changes revealed that of 66 Myofascial TMD patients over a 4 month period, only 9% of suitable patients were not seen via the designated pathway; therefore this QIP was successful in meeting the set objectives. Overall, employing the PDSA cycle in this QIP resulted in appropriate utilisation of the modified care pathway for patients with myofascial TMD in Guy’s Oral Surgery Department. In turn, this leads to high patient satisfaction with the service and effectively redirected 52 hours of clinical time. It permitted adoption of a collaborative working style with oral surgery colleagues to investigate problems, identify solutions, and collectively raise standards of clinical care to ensure we adopt a unified care pathway in secondary care management of Myofascial TMD patients.

Keywords: myofascial, quality Improvement, PDSA, TMD

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Authors: G. Kiran Kumar, K. Padmaja

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The rise of urban and peri-urban agriculture (UPA) is an important urban phenomenon that needs to be well understood before we pronounce a verdict whether it is beneficial or not. The challenge of supply of safe and nutritious food is faced by urban inhabitants. The definition of urban and peri-urban varies from city to city depending on the local policies framed with a view to bring regulated urban habitations as part of governance. Expansion of cities and the blurring of boundaries between urban and rural areas make it difficult to define peri-urban agriculture. The problem is further exacerbated by the fact that definition adopted in one region may not fit in the other. On the other hand the proportion of urban population is on the rise vis-à-vis rural. The rise of UPA does not promise that the food requirements of cities can be entirely met from this practice, since availability of enormous amounts of spaces on rooftops and vacant plots is impossible for raising crops. However, UPA reduces impact of price volatility, particularly for vegetables, which relatively have a longer shelf life. UPA improves access to fresh, nutritious and safe food for the urban poor. UPA provides employment to food handlers and traders in the supply chain. UPA can pose environmental and health risks from inappropriate agricultural practices; increased competition for land, water and energy; alter the ecological landscape and make it vulnerable to increased pollution. The present work is based on case studies in peri-urban agriculture in Hyderabad, India and relies on secondary data. This paper tries to analyze the need for more intensive production technologies without affecting the environment. An optimal solution in terms of urban-rural linkages has to be devised. There is a need to develop a spatial vision and integrate UPA in urban planning in a harmonious manner. Zoning of peri-urban areas for agriculture, milk and poultry production is an essential step to preserve the traditional nurturing character of these areas. Urban local bodies in conjunction with Departments of Agriculture and Horticulture can provide uplift to existing UPA models, without which the UPA can develop into a haphazard phenomenon and add to the increasing list of urban challenges. Land to be diverted for peri-urban agriculture may render the concept of urban and peri-urban forestry ineffective. This paper suggests that UPA may be practiced for high value vegetables which can be cultivated under protected conditions and are better resilient to climate change. UPA can provide models for climate resilient agriculture in urban areas which can be replicated in rural areas. Production of organic farm produce is another option for promote UPA owing to the proximity to informed consumers and access to markets within close range. Waste lands in peri-urban areas can be allotted to unemployed rural youth with the support of Urban Local Bodies (ULBs) and used for UPA. This can serve the purposes of putting wastelands to food production, enhancing employment opportunities and enhancing access to fresh produce for urban consumers.

Keywords: environment, food security, urban and peri-urban agriculture, zoning

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Authors: Berengere Vire, Nicolas Salvetat, Yoann Lannay, Guillaume Marcellin, Siem Van Der Laan, Franck Molina, Dinah Weissmann

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Predicting suicidal behaviors is one of the most complex challenges of daily psychiatric practices. Today, suicide risk prediction using biological tools is not validated and is only based on subjective clinical reports of the at-risk individual. Therefore, there is a great need to identify biomarkers that would allow early identification of individuals at risk of suicide. Alterations of adenosine-to-inosine (A-to-I) RNA editing of neurotransmitter receptors and other proteins have been shown to be involved in etiology of different psychiatric disorders and linked to suicidal behavior. RNA editing is a co- or post-transcriptional process leading to a site-specific alteration in RNA sequences. It plays an important role in the epi transcriptomic regulation of RNA metabolism. On postmortem human brain tissue (prefrontal cortex) of depressed suicide victims, Alcediag found specific alterations of RNA editing activity on the mRNA coding for the serotonin 2C receptor (5-HT2cR). Additionally, an increase in expression levels of ADARs, the RNA editing enzymes, and modifications of RNA editing profiles of prime targets, such as phosphodiesterase 8A (PDE8A) mRNA, have also been observed. Interestingly, the PDE8A gene is located on chromosome 15q25.3, a genomic region that has recurrently been associated with the early-onset major depressive disorder (MDD). In the current study, we examined whether modifications in RNA editing profile of prime targets allow identifying disease-relevant blood biomarkers and evaluating suicide risk in patients. To address this question, we performed a clinical study to identify an RNA editing signature in blood of depressed patients with and without the history of suicide attempts. Patient’s samples were drawn in PAXgene tubes and analyzed on Alcediag’s proprietary RNA editing platform using next generation sequencing technology. In addition, gene expression analysis by quantitative PCR was performed. We generated a multivariate algorithm comprising various selected biomarkers to detect patients with a high risk to attempt suicide. We evaluated the diagnostic performance using the relative proportion of PDE8A mRNA editing at different sites and/or isoforms as well as the expression of PDE8A and the ADARs. The significance of these biomarkers for suicidality was evaluated using the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC). The generated algorithm comprising the biomarkers was found to have strong diagnostic performances with high specificity and sensitivity. In conclusion, we developed tools to measure disease-specific biomarkers in blood samples of patients for identifying individuals at the greatest risk for future suicide attempts. This technology not only fosters patient management but is also suitable to predict the risk of drug-induced psychiatric side effects such as iatrogenic increase of suicidal ideas/behaviors.

Keywords: blood biomarker, next-generation-sequencing, RNA editing, suicide

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Authors: Stanley Russell

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Until the end of the 19th century, European painting dealt almost exclusively with the realistic representation of objects and landscapes, as can be seen in the work of realist artists like Gustav Courbet. Architects of the day typically made reference to and recreated historical precedents in their designs. The curriculum of the first architecture school in Europe, The Ecole des Beaux Artes, based on the study of classical buildings, had a profound effect on the profession. Painting exhibited an increasing level of abstraction from the late 19th century, with impressionism, and the trend continued into the early 20th century when Cubism had an explosive effect sending shock waves through the art world that also extended into the realm of architectural design. Architect /painter Le Corbusier with “Purism” was one of the first to integrate abstract painting and building design theory in works that were equally shocking to the architecture world. The interrelationship of the arts, including architecture, was institutionalized in the Bauhaus curriculum that sought to find commonality between diverse art disciplines. Renowned painter and Bauhaus instructor Vassily Kandinsky was one of the first artists to make a semi-scientific analysis of the elements in “non-objective” painting while also drawing parallels between painting and architecture in his book Point and Line to plane. Russian constructivists made abstract compositions with simple geometric forms, and like the De Stijl group of the Netherlands, they also experimented with full-scale constructions and spatial explorations. Based on the study of historical accounts and original artworks, of Impressionism, Cubism, the Bauhaus, De Stijl, and Russian Constructivism, this paper begins with a thorough explanation of the art theory and several key works from these important art movements of the late 19th and early 20th century. Similarly, based on written histories and first-hand experience of built and drawn works, the author continues with an analysis of the theories and architectural works generated by the same groups, all of which actively pursued continuity between their art and architectural concepts. With images of specific works, the author shows how the trend toward abstraction and geometric purity in painting coincided with a similar trend in architecture that favored simple unornamented geometries. Using examples like the Villa Savoye, The Schroeder House, the Dessau Bauhaus, and unbuilt designs by Russian architect Chernikov, the author gives detailed examples of how the intersection of trends in Art and Architecture led to a unique and fruitful period of creative synergy when the same concepts that were used by artists to generate paintings were also used by architects in the making of objects, space, and buildings. In Conclusion, this article examines the extremely pivotal period in art and architecture history from the late 19th to early 20th century when the confluence of art and architectural theory led to many painted, drawn, and built works that continue to inspire architects and artists to this day.

Keywords: modern art, architecture, design methodologies, modern architecture

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Authors: Geraldine Molina, Malou Allagnat

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Entry through meteorological and climatic phenomena, technical knowledge and engineering sciences has long been favored by the research and local public action to analyze the urban climate, develop strategies to reduce its changes and adapt their spaces. However, in their daily practices and sensitive experiences, city dwellers are confronted with the climate and constantly deal with its fluctuations. In this way, these actors develop knowledge, skills and tactics to regulate their comfort and adapt to climatic variations. Therefore, the empirical observation and analysis of these living experiences represent major scientific and social challenges. This contribution proposes to question these relationships of the inhabitants to urban climate. It tackles the construction of inhabitants’ climatic experiences to answer a central question: how do city dwellers’ deal with the urban climate and adapt to its different variations? Indeed, the city raises the question of how populations adapt to different spatial and temporal climatic variations. Local impacts of global climate change are combined with the urban heat island phenomenon and other microclimatic effects, as well as seasonal, daytime and night-time fluctuations. To provide answers, the presentation will be focused on the results of a CNRS research project (Géraldine Molina), part of which is linked to the European project Nature For Cities (H2020, Marjorie Musy, Scientific Director). From a theoretical point of view, the contribution is based on a renewed definition of adaptation centered on the capacity of individuals and social groups, a recently opened entry from a theoretical point of view by social scientists. The research adopts a "radical interdisciplinary" approach to shed light on the links between social dynamics of climate (inhabitants’ perceptions, representations and practices) and physical processes that characterize urban climate. To do so, it relied on a methodological combination of different survey techniques borrowed from the social sciences (geography, anthropology, sociology) and linked to the work, methodologies and results of the engineering sciences. From 2016 to 2019, a survey was carried out in two districts of Lyon whose morphological, micro-climatic and social characteristics differ greatly, namely the 6th arrondissement and the Guillotière district. To explore the construction of climate experiences over the long term by putting it into perspective with the life trajectories of individuals, 70 semi-directive interviews were conducted with inhabitants. In order to also punctually survey the climate experiments as they unfold in a given time and moment, observation and measurement campaigns of physical phenomena and questionnaires have been conducted in public spaces by an interdisciplinary research team1. The contribution at the ICUC 2020 will mainly focus on the presentation of the presentation of the qualitative survey conducted thanks to the inhabitants’ interviews.

Keywords: sensitive experiences, ways of life, thermal comfort, radical interdisciplinarity

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Authors: Jing Zhang, Yvonne Reinwald, Nick Poulson, Alicia El Haj, Chung See, Mike Somekh, Melissa Mather

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Biomedical imaging of native tissue using light offers the potential to obtain excellent structural and functional information in a non-invasive manner with good temporal resolution. Image contrast can be derived from intrinsic absorption, fluorescence, or scatter, or through the use of extrinsic contrast. A major challenge in applying optical microscopy to in vivo tissue imaging is the effects of light attenuation which limits light penetration depth and achievable imaging resolution. Recently Selective Plane Illumination Microscopy (SPIM) has been used to map the 3D distribution of fluorophores dispersed in biological structures. In this approach, a focused sheet of light is used to illuminate the sample from the side to excite fluorophores within the sample of interest. Images are formed based on detection of fluorescence emission orthogonal to the illumination axis. By scanning the sample along the detection axis and acquiring a stack of images, 3D volumes can be obtained. The combination of rapid image acquisition speeds with the low photon dose to samples optical sectioning provides SPIM is an attractive approach for imaging biological samples in 3D. To date all implementations of SPIM rely on the use of fluorescence reporters be that endogenous or exogenous. This approach has the disadvantage that in the case of exogenous probes the specimens are altered from their native stage rendering them unsuitable for in vivo studies and in general fluorescence emission is weak and transient. Here we present for the first time to our knowledge a label-free implementation of SPIM that has downstream applications in the clinical setting. The experimental set up used in this work incorporates both label-free and fluorescent illumination arms in addition to a high specification camera that can be partitioned for simultaneous imaging of both fluorescent emission and scattered light from intrinsic sources of optical contrast in the sample being studied. This work first involved calibration of the imaging system and validation of the label-free method with well characterised fluorescent microbeads embedded in agarose gel. 3D constructs of mammalian cells cultured in agarose gel with varying cell concentrations were then imaged. A time course study to track cell proliferation in the 3D construct was also carried out and finally a native tissue sample was imaged. For each sample multiple images were obtained by scanning the sample along the axis of detection and 3D maps reconstructed. The results obtained validated label-free SPIM as a viable approach for imaging cells in a 3D gel construct and native tissue. This technique has the potential use in a near-patient environment that can provide results quickly and be implemented in an easy to use manner to provide more information with improved spatial resolution and depth penetration than current approaches.

Keywords: bioimaging, optics, selective plane illumination microscopy, tissue imaging

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Authors: Ekemini M. Okon, Reuben C. Okocha, Babatunde T. Adesina, Judith O. Ehigie, Babatunde M. Falana, Boluwape T. Okikiola

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Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) has evolved to become a significant threat to global public health and food safety. The development of AMR in animals has been associated with antimicrobial overuse. In recent years, the number of antimicrobials used in food animals such as fish and poultry has escalated. It, therefore, becomes imperative to understand the patterns of AMR in fish and poultry and map out future directions for better surveillance efforts. This study used the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses(PRISMA) to assess the trend, patterns, and spatial distribution for AMR research in Egypt, Nigeria, and South Africa. A literature search was conducted through the Scopus and Web of Science databases in which published studies on AMR between 1989 and 2021 were assessed. A total of 172 articles were relevant for this study. The result showed progressive attention on AMR studies in fish and poultry from 2018 to 2021 across the selected countries. The period between 2018 (23 studies) and 2021 (25 studies) showed a significant increase in AMR publications with a peak in 2019 (28 studies). Egypt was the leading exponent of AMR research (43%, n=74) followed by Nigeria (40%, n=69), then South Africa (17%, n=29). AMR studies in fish received relatively little attention across countries. The majority of the AMR studies were on poultry in Egypt (82%, n=61), Nigeria (87%, n=60), and South Africa (83%, n=24). Further, most of the studies were on Escherichia and Salmonella species. Antimicrobials frequently researched were ampicillin, erythromycin, tetracycline, trimethoprim, chloramphenicol, and sulfamethoxazole groups. Multiple drug resistance was prevalent, as demonstrated by antimicrobial resistance patterns. In poultry, Escherichia coli isolates were resistant to cefotaxime, streptomycin, chloramphenicol, enrofloxacin, gentamycin, ciprofloxacin, oxytetracycline, kanamycin, nalidixic acid, tetracycline, trimethoprim/sulphamethoxazole, erythromycin, and ampicillin. Salmonella enterica serovars were resistant to tetracycline, trimethoprim/sulphamethoxazole, cefotaxime, and ampicillin. Staphylococcusaureus showed high-level resistance to streptomycin, kanamycin, erythromycin, cefoxitin, trimethoprim, vancomycin, ampicillin, and tetracycline. Campylobacter isolates were resistant to ceftriaxone, erythromycin, ciprofloxacin, tetracycline, and nalidixic acid at varying degrees. In fish, Enterococcus isolates showed resistance to penicillin, ampicillin, chloramphenicol, vancomycin, and tetracycline but sensitive to ciprofloxacin, erythromycin, and rifampicin. Isolated strains of Vibrio species showed sensitivity to florfenicol and ciprofloxacin, butresistance to trimethoprim/sulphamethoxazole and erythromycin. Isolates of Aeromonas and Pseudomonas species exhibited resistance to ampicillin and amoxicillin. Specifically, Aeromonashydrophila isolates showed sensitivity to cephradine, doxycycline, erythromycin, and florfenicol. However, resistance was also exhibited against augmentinandtetracycline. The findings constitute public and environmental health threats and suggest the need to promote and advance AMR research in other countries, particularly those on the global hotspot for antimicrobial use.

Keywords: antibiotics, antimicrobial resistance, bacteria, environment, public health

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Authors: Staci McGill, Morgan Hayes, Robert Coleman, Kimberly Tumlin

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The interaction and relationships between horses and humans have been shown to be positive for physical, mental, and emotional wellbeing, however equine spaces where these interactions occur do include some environmental risks. There are 1.7 million jobs associated with the equine industry in the United States in addition to recreational riders, owners, and volunteers who interact with horses for substantial amounts of time daily inside built structures. One specialized facility, an “indoor arena” is a semi-indoor structure used for exercising horses and exhibiting skills during competitive events. Typically, indoor arenas have a sand or sand mixture as the footing or surface over which the horse travels, and increasingly, silica sand is being recommended due to its durable nature. It was previously identified in a semi-qualitative survey that the majority of individuals using indoor arenas have environmental concerns with dust. 27% (90/333) of respondents reported respiratory issues or allergy-like symptoms while riding with 21.6% (71/329) of respondents reporting these issues while standing on the ground observing or teaching. Frequent headaches and/or lightheadedness was reported in 9.9% (33/333) of respondents while riding and in 4.3% 14/329 while on the ground. Horse respiratory health is also negatively impacted with 58% (194/333) of respondents indicating horses cough during or after time in the indoor arena. Instructors who spent time in indoor arenas self-reported more respiratory issues than those individuals who identified as smokers, highlighting the health relevance of understanding these unique structures. To further elucidate environmental concerns and self-reported health issues, 35 facility assessments were conducted in a cross-sectional sampling design in the states of Kentucky and Ohio (USA). Data, including air speeds, were collected in a grid fashion at 15 points within the indoor arenas and then mapped spatially using krigging in ARCGIS. From the spatial maps, standard variances were obtained and differences were analyzed using multivariant analysis of variances (MANOVA) and analysis of variances (ANOVA). There were no differences for the variance of the air speeds in the spaces for facility orientation, presence and type of roof ventilation, climate control systems, amount of openings, or use of fans. Variability of the air speeds in the indoor arenas was 0.25 or less. Further analysis yielded that average air speeds within the indoor arenas were lower than 100 ft/min (0.51 m/s) which is considered still air in other animal facilities. The lack of air movement means that dust clearance is reliant on particle size and weight rather than ventilation. While further work on respirable dust is necessary, this characterization of the semi-indoor environment where animals and humans interact indicates insufficient air flow to eliminate or reduce respiratory hazards. Finally, engineering solutions to address air movement deficiencies within indoor arenas or mitigate particulate matter are critical to ensuring exposures do not lead to adverse health outcomes for equine professionals, volunteers, participants, and horses within these spaces.

Keywords: equine, indoor arena, ventilation, particulate matter, respiratory health

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Authors: Waqas Ahmed Khan, Faheem Khokhaar

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Air pollution is one of the main perpetrators of climate change. GHGs cause melting of glaciers and cause change in temperature and heavy rain fall many gasses like Formaldehyde is not direct precursor that damage ozone like CO2 or Methane but Formaldehyde (HCHO) form glyoxal (CHOCHO) that has effect on ozone. Countries around the globe have unique air quality monitoring protocols to describe local air pollution. Formaldehyde is a colorless, flammable, strong-smelling chemical that is used in building materials and to produce many household products and medical preservatives. Formaldehyde also occurs naturally in the environment. It is produced in small amounts by most living organisms as part of normal metabolic processes. Pakistan lacks the monitoring facilities on larger scale to measure the atmospheric gasses on regular bases. Formaldehyde is formed from Glyoxal and effect mountain biodiversity and livelihood. So its monitoring is necessary in order to maintain and preserve biodiversity. Objective: Present study is aimed to measure atmospheric HCHO vertical column densities (VCDs) obtained from ground-base and compute HCHO data in Punjab and elevated areas (Rawalpindi & Islamabad) by satellite observation during the time period of 2014-2015. Methodology: In order to explore the spatial distributing of H2CO, various fields campaigns including international scientist by using car Max-Doas. Major focus was on the cities along national highways and industrial region of Punjab Pakistan. Level 2 data product of satellite instruments OMI retrieved by differential optical absorption spectroscopy (DOAS) technique are used. Spatio-temporal distribution of HCHO column densities over main cities and region of Pakistan has been discussed. Results: Results show the High HCHO column densities exceeding permissible limit over the main cities of Pakistan particularly the areas with rapid urbanization and enhanced economic growth. The VCDs value over elevated areas of Pakistan like Islamabad, Rawalpindi is around 1.0×1016 to 34.01×1016 Molecules’/cm2. While Punjab has values revolving around the figure 34.01×1016. Similarly areas with major industrial activity showed high amount of HCHO concentrations. Tropospheric glyoxal VCDs were found to be 4.75 × 1015 molecules/cm2. Conclusion: Results shows that monitoring site surrounded by Margalla hills (Islamabad) have higher concentrations of Formaldehyde. Wind data shows that industrial areas and areas having high economic growth have high values as they provide pathways for transmission of HCHO. Results obtained from this study would help EPA, WHO and air protection departments in order to monitor air quality and further preservation and restoration of mountain biodiversity.

Keywords: air quality, formaldehyde, Max-Doas, vertical column densities (VCDs), satellite instrument, climate change

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Authors: Sarah Reker, Christiane H. Kellner

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From the perspective of people with disabilities, inequalities can also emerge from spatial segregation, the lack of social contacts or limited economic resources. In order to reduce or even eliminate these disadvantages and increase general well-being, community-based participation as well as decentralisation efforts within exclusively residential homes is essential. Therefore, the new research project “Index for participation development and quality of life for persons with disabilities”(TeLe-Index, 2014-2016), which is anchored at the Technische Universität München in Munich and at a large residential complex and service provider for persons with disabilities in the outskirts of Munich aims to assist the development of community-based living environments. People with disabilities should be able to participate in social life beyond the confines of the institution. Since a diverse society is a society in which different individual needs and wishes can emerge and be catered to, the ultimate goal of the project is to create an environment for all citizens–regardless of disability, age or ethnic background–that accommodates their daily activities and requirements. The UN-Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities, which Germany also ratified, postulates the necessity of user-centered design, especially when it comes to evaluating the individual needs and wishes of all citizens. Therefore, a multidimensional approach is required. Based on this insight, the structure of the town-like center will be remodeled to open up the community to all people. This strategy should lead to more equal opportunities and open the way for a much more diverse community. Therefore, macro-level research questions were inspired by quality of life theory and were formulated as follows for different dimensions: •The user dimension: what needs and necessities can we identify? Are needs person-related? Are there any options to choose from? What type of quality of life can we identify? The economic dimension: what resources (both material and staff-related) are available in the region? (How) are they used? What costs (can) arise and what effects do they entail? •The environment dimension: what “environmental factors” such as access (mobility and absence of barriers) prove beneficial or impedimental? In this context, we have provided academic supervision and support for three projects (the construction of a new school, inclusive housing for children and teenagers with disabilities and the professionalization of employees with person-centered thinking). Since we cannot present all the issues of the umbrella-project within the conference framework, we will be focusing on one project more in-depth, namely “Outpatient Housing Options for Children and Teenagers with Disabilities”. The insights we have obtained until now will enable us to present the intermediary results of our evaluation. The most central questions pertaining to this part of the research were the following: •How have the existing network relations been designed? •What meaning (or significance) does the existing service offers and structures have for the everyday life of an external residential group? These issues underpinned the environmental analyses as well as the qualitative guided interviews and qualitative network analyses we carried out.

Keywords: decentralisation, environmental analyses, outpatient housing options for children and teenagers with disabilities, qualitative network analyses

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Authors: Jihong Liang, Huiling Feng, Linqing Ma, Tianjiao Qi

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Confucius is the first sage in Chinese culture. Confucianism, the theories represented by Confucius, has long been at the core of Chinese traditional society, as the dominating political ideology of centralized feudal monarchy for more than two thousand years. Confucius Worship Ceremony held in the Confucian Temple in Qufu (Confucius’s birthplace), which is dedicated to commemorate Confucius and other 170 elites in Confucianism with a whole set of formal rites, pertains to “Auspicious Rites”, which worship heaven and earth, humans and ghosts. It was first a medium-scaled ritual activity but then upgraded to the supreme one at national level in the Qing Dynasty. As a national event, it was celebrated by Emperor as well as common intellectuals in traditional China. The Ceremony can be solemn and respectful, with prescribed and complicated procedures, well-prepared utensil and matched offerings operated in rhythm with music and dances. Each participant has his place, and everyone follows the specified rules. This magnificent ritual Ceremony, while embedded with rich culture connotation, actually symbolizes the social acknowledgment for orthodox culture represented by Confucianism. Rites reflected in this Ceremony, is one of the most important features of Chinese culture, serving as the key bond in the identification and continuation of Chinese culture. These rites and ritual ceremonies, as culture memories themselves, are not only treasures of China, but of the whole world. However, while the ancient Chinese Rite has been one of the thorniest and most complicated topics for academics, the more regrettable is that due to their interruption in practice and historical changes, these rites and ritual ceremonies have already become a vague language in today’s academic discourse and strange terms of the past for common people. Luckily, we, today, by virtue of modern digital technology, may be able to reproduce these ritual ceremonies, as most of them can still be found in ancient manuscripts, through which Chinese ancestors tell the beauty and gravity of their dignified rites and more importantly, their spiritual pursuits with vivid language and lively pictures. This research, based on review and interpretation of the ancient literature, intends to construct the ancient ritual ceremonies, with the Confucius Worship Ceremony as a case and by use of digital technology. Using 3D technology, the spatial scenes in the Confucian Temple can be reconstructed by virtual reality; the memorial tablet exhibited in the temple by GIS and different rites in the ceremonies by animation technology. With reference to the lyrics, melodies and lively pictures recorded in ancient scripts, it is also possible to reproduce the live dancing site. Also, image rendering technology can help to show the life experience and accomplishments of Confucius. Finally, lining up all the elements in a multimedia narrative form, a complete digitalized Confucius Worship Ceremony can be reproduced, which will provide an excellent virtual experience that goes beyond time and space by bringing its audience back to that specific historical time. This digital project, once completed, will play an important role in the inheritance and dissemination of cultural heritage.

Keywords: Confucius worship ceremony, multimedia narrative form, GIS, visual representation

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Authors: Evren Aysev Denec

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As an urban settlement dating as early as 8000 years and the capital for Byzantine and Ottoman empires; İstanbul has been a significant global city throughout history. The most drastic changes in the macro form of Istanbul have taken place in the last seven decades; starting from 1950’s with rapid industrialization and population growth; pacing up after the 1980’s with the efforts of integration to the global capitalist system; reaching to a climax in the 2000’s with the adaptation of a neoliberal urban regime. Today, the rate of urbanization together with land speculation and real estate investment has been growing enormously. Every inch of urban land is conceptualized as a commodity to be capitalized. This neoliberal mindset has many controversial implementations, from the privatization of public land to the urban transformation of historic neighbourhoods and consumption of natural resources. The planning decisions concerning the city have been mainly top down initiations; conceptualising historical, cultural and natural heritage as commodities to be capitalised and consumed in favour of creating rent value. One of the most crucial implementations of this neoliberal urban regime is the project of establishing a ‘new city’ around northern Istanbul; together with a number of large-scale infrastructural projects such as the Third Bosporus Bridge; a new highway system, a Third Airport Project and a secondary Bosporus project called the ‘Canal Istanbul’. Urbanizing northern Istanbul is highly controversial as this area consists of major natural resources of the city; being the northern forests, water supplies and wildlife; which are bound to be destroyed to a great extent following the implementations. The construction of the third bridge and the third airport has begun in 2013, despite environmental objections and protests. Over five hundred thousand trees are planned be cut for solely the construction of the bridge and the Northern Marmara Motorway. Yet the real damage will be the urbanization of the forest area; irreversibly corrupting the natural resources and attracting millions of additional population towards Istanbul. Furthermore, these projects lack an integrated planning scope as the plans prepared for Istanbul are constantly subjected to alterations forced by the central government. Urban interventions mentioned above are executed despite the rulings of Istanbul Environmental plan, due to top down planning decisions. Instead of an integrated action plan that prepares for the future of the city, Istanbul is governed by partial plans and projects that are issued by a profit based agenda; supported by legal alterations and laws issued by the central government. This paper aims to discuss the ongoing implementations with regards to northern Istanbul; claiming that they are not merely infrastructural interventions but parts of a greater neoliberal urbanization strategy. In the course of the study, firstly a brief account on the northern forests of Istanbul will be presented. Then, the projects will be discussed in detail, addressing how the current planning schemes deal with the natural heritage of the city. Lastly, concluding remarks on how the implementations could affect the future of Istanbul will be presented.

Keywords: Istanbul, urban design, urban planning, natural resources

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Authors: Scott M. Black, Craig Maclean, Pauline Hall Barrientos, Konstantinos Ritos, Asimina Kazakidi

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Aortic aneurysms and dissections are leading causes of death in cardiovascular disease. Both inevitably lead to hemodynamic instability without surgical intervention in the form of vascular stent-graft deployment. An accurate description of the aortic geometry and blood flow in patient-specific cases is vital for treatment planning and long-term success of such grafts, as they must generate physiological branch perfusion and in-stent hemodynamics. The aim of this study was to create patient-specific computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models through a multi-modality, multi-dimensional approach with boundary condition optimization to predict branch flow rates and in-stent hemodynamics in custom stent-graft configurations. Three-dimensional (3D) thoracoabdominal aortae were reconstructed from four-dimensional flow-magnetic resonance imaging (4D Flow-MRI) and computed tomography (CT) medical images. The former employed a novel approach to generate and enhance vessel lumen contrast via through-plane velocity at discrete, user defined cardiac time steps post-hoc. To produce patient-specific boundary conditions (BCs), the aortic geometry was reduced to a one-dimensional (1D) model. Thereafter, a zero-dimensional (0D) 3-Element Windkessel model (3EWM) was coupled to each terminal branch to represent the distal vasculature. In this coupled 0D-1D model, the 3EWM parameters were optimized to yield branch flow waveforms which are representative of the 4D Flow-MRI-derived in-vivo data. Thereafter, a 0D-3D CFD model was created, utilizing the optimized 3EWM BCs and a 4D Flow-MRI-obtained inlet velocity profile. A sensitivity analysis on the effects of stent-graft configuration and BC parameters was then undertaken using multiple stent-graft configurations and a range of distal vasculature conditions. 4D Flow-MRI granted unparalleled visualization of blood flow throughout the cardiac cycle in both the pre- and postsurgical states. Segmentation and reconstruction of healthy and stented regions from retrospective 4D Flow-MRI images also generated 3D models with geometries which were successfully validated against their CT-derived counterparts. 0D-1D coupling efficiently captured branch flow and pressure waveforms, while 0D-3D models also enabled 3D flow visualization and quantification of clinically relevant hemodynamic parameters for in-stent thrombosis and graft limb occlusion. It was apparent that changes in 3EWM BC parameters had a pronounced effect on perfusion distribution and near-wall hemodynamics. Results show that the 3EWM parameters could be iteratively changed to simulate a range of graft limb diameters and distal vasculature conditions for a given stent-graft to determine the optimal configuration prior to surgery. To conclude, this study outlined a methodology to aid in the prediction post-surgical branch perfusion and in-stent hemodynamics in patient specific cases for the implementation of custom stent-grafts.

Keywords: 4D flow-MRI, computational fluid dynamics, vascular stent-grafts, windkessel

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Authors: Chieh-Ning Lan, Tzu-Shin Lin, Kun-Hao Lin

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Chinese handwriting skill is one of the basic skills of school-age children in Taiwan, which helps them to learn most academic subjects. Differ from the alphabetic language system, Chinese written language is a logographic script with a complicated 2-dimensional character structure as a morpheme. Visuospatial ability places a great role in Chinese handwriting to maintain good proportion and alignment of these interwoven strokes. In Taiwan, school-age students faced the challenge to recognize and write down Chinese characters, especially in children with written expression difficulties (CWWDs). In this study, we developed an instructional app to help CWWDs practice Chinese handwriting skills, and we aimed to apply the mobile assisted language learning (MALL) system in clinical writing strategies. To understand the feasibility and satisfaction of this auxiliary instructional writing app, we investigated the perceive and value both from school-age students and the clinic therapists, who were the target users and the experts. A group of 8 elementary school children, as well as 8 clinic therapists, were recruited. The school-age students were asked to go through a paper-based instruction and were asked to score the visual expression based on their graphic preference; the clinic therapists were asked to watch an introductive video of this instructional app and complete the online formative questionnaire. In the results of our study, from the perspective of user interface design, school-age students were more attracted to cartoon-liked pictures rather than line drawings or vivid photos. Moreover, compared to text, pictures which have higher semantic transparency were more commonly chosen by children. In terms of the quantitative survey from clinic therapists, they were highly satisfied with this auxiliary instructional writing app, including the concepts such as visual design, teaching contents, and positive reinforcement system. Furthermore, the qualitative results also suggested comprehensive positive feedbacks on the teaching contents and the feasibility of integrating the app into clinical treatments. Interestingly, we found that clinic therapists showed high agreement in approving CWWDs’ writing ability with using orthographic knowledge; however, in the qualitative section, clinic therapists pointed out that CWWDs usually have relative insufficient background knowledge in Chinese character orthographic rules, which because it is not a key-point in conventional handwriting instruction. Also, previous studies indicated that conventional Chinese reading and writing instructions were lacked of utilizing visual-spatial arrangement strategies. Based on the sharing experiences from all participants, we concluded several interesting topics that are worth to dedicate to in the future. In this undergoing app system, improvement and revision will be applied into the system design, and will establish a better and more useful instructional system for CWWDs within their treatments; enlightened by the opinions related to learning content, the importance of orthographic knowledge in Chinese character recognition should be well discussed and involved in CWWDs’ intervention in the future.

Keywords: auxiliary instructional app, children with writing difficulties, Chinese handwriting, orthographic knowledge

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Authors: Weili Jiang, Simon Cadavid Lopera, Klaus Drechsler

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Fuel cell vehicle has become the most competitive solution for the transportation sector in the hydrogen economy. Type IV pressure vessel is currently the most popular and widely developed technology for the on-board storage, based on their high reliability and relatively low cost. Due to the stringent requirement on mechanical performance, the pressure vessel is subject to great amount of composite material, a major cost driver for the hydrogen tanks. Evidently, the optimization of composite layup design shows great potential in reducing the overall material usage, yet requires comprehensive understanding on underlying mechanisms as well as the influence of different design parameters on mechanical performance. Given the type of materials and manufacturing processes by which the type IV pressure vessels are manufactured, the design and optimization are a nuanced subject. The manifold of stacking sequence and fiber orientation variation possibilities have an out-standing effect on vessel strength due to the anisotropic property of carbon fiber composites, which make the design space high dimensional. Each variation of design parameters requires computational resources. Using finite element analysis to evaluate different designs is the most common method, however, the model-ing, setup and simulation process can be very time consuming and result in high computational cost. For this reason, it is necessary to build a reliable automation scheme to set up and analyze the di-verse composite layups. In this research, the simulation process of different tank designs regarding various parameters is conducted and automatized in a commercial finite element analysis framework Abaqus. Worth mentioning, the modeling of the composite overwrap is automatically generated using an Abaqus-Python scripting interface. The prediction of the winding angle of each layer and corresponding thickness variation on dome region is the most crucial step of the modeling, which is calculated and implemented using analytical methods. Subsequently, these different composites layups are simulated as axisymmetric models to facilitate the computational complexity and reduce the calculation time. Finally, the results are evaluated and compared regarding the ultimate tank strength. By automatically modeling, evaluating and comparing various composites layups, this system is applicable for the optimization of the tanks structures. As mentioned above, the mechanical property of the pressure vessel is highly dependent on composites layup, which requires big amount of simulations. Consequently, to automatize the simulation process gains a rapid way to compare the various designs and provide an indication of the optimum one. Moreover, this automation process can also be operated for creating a data bank of layups and corresponding mechanical properties with few preliminary configuration steps for the further case analysis. Subsequently, using e.g. machine learning to gather the optimum by the data pool directly without the simulation process.

Keywords: type IV pressure vessels, carbon composites, finite element analy-sis, automation of simulation process

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Authors: Shilpi Bora, Abhirup Chatterjee, Debkumar Chakrabarti

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Organizations of all the sectors around the world are increasingly revisiting their workplace strategies with due concern for women working therein. Limited office space and rigid work arrangements contribute to lesser job satisfaction and greater work impoundments for any organization. Flexible workspace strategies are indispensable to accommodate the progressive rise of modular workstations and involvement of women. Today’s generation of employees deserves malleable office environments with employee-friendly job conditions and strategies. The workplace nowadays stands on rapid organizational changes in progressive and flexible work culture. Occupational well-being practices need to keep pace with the rapid changes in office-based work. Working at the office (workspace) with awkward postures or for long periods can cause pain, discomfort, and injury. The world is stirring towards the era of globalization and progress. The 4000 women police personnel constitute less than one per cent of the total police strength of India. Lots of innovative fields are growing fast, and it is important that we should accommodate women in those arenas. The timeworn trends should be set apart to set out for fresh opportunities and possibilities of development and success through more involvement of women in the workplace. The notion of women policing is gaining position throughout the world, and various countries are putting solemn efforts to mainstream women in policing. As the role of women policing in a society is budding, and thus it is also notable that the accessibility of women at general police stations should be considered. Accordingly, the impact of workspace at police station on the employee productivity has been widely deliberated as a crucial contributor to employee satisfaction leading to better functional motivation. Thus the present research aimed to look into the office workstation design of police station with reference to womanhood specific issues to uplift occupational wellbeing of the policewomen. Personal interview and individual responses collected through administering to a subjective assessment questionnaire on thirty women police as well as to have their views on these issues by purposive non-probability sampling of women police personnel of different ranks posted in Guwahati, Assam, India. Scrutiny of the collected data revealed that office design has a substantial impact on the policewomen job satisfaction in the police station. In this study, the workspace was designed in such a way that the set of factors would impact on the individual to ensure increased productivity. Office design such as furniture, noise, temperature, lighting and spatial arrangement were considered. The primary feature which affected the productivity of policewomen was the furniture used in the workspace, which was found to disturb the everyday and overall productivity of policewomen. Therefore, it was recommended to have proper and adequate ergonomics design intervention to improve the office design for better performance. This type of study is today’s need-of-the-hour to empower women and facilitate their inner talent to come up in service of the nation. The office workspace design also finds critical importance at several other occupations also – where office workstation needs further improvement.

Keywords: office workspace design, policewomen, womanhood concerns at workspace, occupational wellbeing

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Authors: Sabrina Neururer, Marco Schweitzer, Werner Hackl, Bernhard Tilg, Patrick Raudaschl, Andreas Huber, Bernhard Pfeifer

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History and the current outbreak of Covid-19 have shown the deadly potential of infectious diseases. However, infectious diseases also have a serious impact on areas other than health and healthcare, such as the economy or social life. These areas are strongly codependent. Therefore, disease control measures, such as social distancing, quarantines, curfews, or lockdowns, have to be adopted in a very considerate manner. Infectious disease modeling can support policy and decision-makers with adequate information regarding the dynamics of the pandemic and therefore assist in planning and enforcing appropriate measures that will prevent the healthcare system from collapsing. In this work, an agent-based simulation package named “survival” for simulating infectious diseases is presented. A special focus is put on SARS-Cov-2. The presented simulation package was used in Austria to model the SARS-Cov-2 outbreak from the beginning of 2020. Agent-based modeling is a relatively recent modeling approach. Since our world is getting more and more complex, the complexity of the underlying systems is also increasing. The development of tools and frameworks and increasing computational power advance the application of agent-based models. For parametrizing the presented model, different data sources, such as known infections, wastewater virus load, blood donor antibodies, circulating virus variants and the used capacity for hospitalization, as well as the availability of medical materials like ventilators, were integrated with a database system and used. The simulation result of the model was used for predicting the dynamics and the possible outcomes and was used by the health authorities to decide on the measures to be taken in order to control the pandemic situation. The survival package was implemented in the programming language Java and the analytics were performed with R Studio. During the first run in March 2020, the simulation showed that without measures other than individual personal behavior and appropriate medication, the death toll would have been about 27 million people worldwide within the first year. The model predicted the hospitalization rates (standard and intensive care) for Tyrol and South Tyrol with an accuracy of about 1.5% average error. They were calculated to provide 10-days forecasts. The state government and the hospitals were provided with the 10-days models to support their decision-making. This ensured that standard care was maintained for as long as possible without restrictions. Furthermore, various measures were estimated and thereafter enforced. Among other things, communities were quarantined based on the calculations while, in accordance with the calculations, the curfews for the entire population were reduced. With this framework, which is used in the national crisis team of the Austrian province of Tyrol, a very accurate model could be created on the federal state level as well as on the district and municipal level, which was able to provide decision-makers with a solid information basis. This framework can be transferred to various infectious diseases and thus can be used as a basis for future monitoring.

Keywords: modelling, simulation, agent-based, SARS-Cov-2, COVID-19

Procedia PDF Downloads 148