Search results for: shadow prices

Authors: Amer Ait Sidhoum

Abstract:

Interest in sustainability has gained ground among practitioners, academics and policy-makers due to growing stakeholders’ awareness of environmental and social concerns. This is particularly true for agriculture. However, relatively little research has been conducted on the quantification of social sustainability and the contribution of social issues to the agricultural production efficiency. This research's main objective is to propose a method for evaluating prices of social outputs, more precisely shadow prices, by allowing for the stochastic nature of agricultural production that is to say for production uncertainty. In this article, the assessment of social outputs’ shadow prices is conducted within the methodological framework of nonparametric Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). An output-oriented directional distance function (DDF) is implemented to represent the technology of a sample of Catalan arable crop farms and derive the efficiency scores the overall production technology of our sample is assumed to be the intersection of two different sub-technologies. The first sub-technology models the production of random desirable agricultural outputs, while the second sub-technology reflects the social outcomes from agricultural activities. Once a nonparametric production technology has been represented, the DDF primal approach can be used for efficiency measurement, while shadow prices are drawn from the dual representation of the DDF. Computing shadow prices is a method to assign an economic value to non-marketed social outcomes. Our research uses cross sectional, farm-level data collected in 2015 from a sample of 180 Catalan arable crop farms specialized in the production of cereals, oilseeds and protein (COP) crops. Our results suggest that our sample farms show high performance scores, from 85% for the bad state of nature to 88% for the normal and ideal crop growing conditions. This suggests that farm performance is increasing with an improvement in crop growth conditions. Results also show that average shadow prices of desirable state-contingent output and social outcomes for efficient and inefficient farms are positive, suggesting that the production of desirable marketable outputs and of non-marketable outputs makes a positive contribution to the farm production efficiency. Results also indicate that social outputs’ shadow prices are contingent upon the growing conditions. The shadow prices follow an upward trend as crop-growing conditions improve. This finding suggests that these efficient farms prefer to allocate more resources in the production of desirable outputs than of social outcomes. To our knowledge, this study represents the first attempt to compute shadow prices of social outcomes while accounting for the stochastic nature of the production technology. Our findings suggest that the decision-making process of the efficient farms in dealing with social issues are stochastic and strongly dependent on the growth conditions. This implies that policy-makers should adjust their instruments according to the stochastic environmental conditions. An optimal redistribution of rural development support, by increasing the public payment with the improvement in crop growth conditions, would likely enhance the effectiveness of public policies.

Keywords: data envelopment analysis, shadow prices, social sustainability, sustainable farming

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Authors: Huey-Kuo Chen

Abstract:

This paper applies directional marginal productivity model to study the shadow price of emissions by transportation modes in the years of 2011 and 2013 with the aim to provide a reference for policy makers to improve the emission of pollutants. One input variable (i.e., energy consumption), one desirable output variable (i.e., vehicle kilometers traveled) and three undesirable output variables (i.e., carbon dioxide, sulfur oxides and nitrogen oxides) generated by road transportation modes were used to evaluate directional marginal productivity and directional shadow price for 18 transportation modes. The results show that the directional shadow price (DSP) of SOx is much higher than CO2 and NOx. Nevertheless, the emission of CO2 is the largest among the three kinds of pollutants. To improve the air quality, the government should pay more attention to the emission of CO2 and apply the alternative solution such as promoting public transportation and subsidizing electric vehicles to reduce the use of private vehicles.

Keywords: marginal productivity, road transportation modes, shadow price, undesirable outputs

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Authors: Bo Wan, Xiu Wen, Lingling An, Xiaoling Ding

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The paper describes a Chinese shadow play animation system based on Kinect. Users, without any professional training, can personally manipulate the shadow characters to finish a shadow play performance by their body actions and get a shadow play video through giving the record command to our system if they want. In our system, Kinect is responsible for capturing human movement and voice commands data. Gesture recognition module is used to control the change of the shadow play scenes. After packaging the data from Kinect and the recognition result from gesture recognition module, VRPN transmits them to the server-side. At last, the server-side uses the information to control the motion of shadow characters and video recording. This system not only achieves human-computer interaction, but also realizes the interaction between people. It brings an entertaining experience to users and easy to operate for all ages. Even more important is that the application background of Chinese shadow play embodies the protection of the art of shadow play animation.

Keywords: hadow play animation, Kinect, gesture recognition, VRPN, HCI

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Authors: Ramiz Kuliev, Fuad Kuliev-Smirnov

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The 'Shadow Sparring' training exercise is widely used in the training of boxers and martial artists. The main disadvantage of the usual shadow sparring is that the trainer cannot fully control such training and evaluate its results. During the competition, the athlete, preparing for the upcoming fight, imagines the Shadow (upcoming opponent) in accordance with his own imagination. A ‘Smart-Shadow Sparring’ (SSS) is an innovative version of the ‘Shadow Sparring’. During SSS, the fighter will see the Shadow (virtual opponent that moves, defends, and punches) and understand when he misses the punches from the Shadow. The task of a real athlete is to spar with a virtual one, move around, punch in the direction of unprotected areas of the Shadow and dodge his punches. Moves and punches of Shadow are set up before each training. The system will give the coach full information about virtual sparring: (i) how many and what type of punches has the fighter landed, (ii) accuracy of these punches, (iii) how many and what type of virtual punches (punches of Smart-Shadow) has the fighter missed, etc. SSS will be recorded as animated fighting of two fighters and will help the coach to analyze past training. SSS can be configured to fit the physical and technical characteristics of the next real opponent (size, techniques, speed, missed and landed punches, etc.). This will allow to simulate and rehearse the upcoming fight and improve readiness for the next opponent. For amateur fighters, SSS will be reconfigured several times during a tournament, when the real opponent becomes known. SSS can be used in three versions: (1) Digital Shadow: the athlete will see a Shadow on a monitor (2) VR-Shadow: the athlete will see a Shadow in a VR-glasses (3) Smart Shadow: a Shadow will be controlled by artificial intelligence. These technologies are based on the ‘semi-real simulation’ method. The technology allows coaches to train athletes remotely. Simulation of different opponents will help the athletes better prepare for competition. Repeat rehearsals of the upcoming fight will help improve results. SSS can improve results in Boxing, Taekwondo, Karate, and Fencing. 41 sets of medals will be awarded in these sports at the 2020 Olympic Games.

Keywords: boxing, combat sports, fight simulation, shadow sparring

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Authors: Chayakarn Bamrungbutr, James Sillitoe

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The term ‘shadow port’ is used to describe a port whose markets are dominated by an adjacent port that has a more competitive capability. Recently, researchers have put effort into studying the mechanisms of how a regional port, in the shadow of a nearby predominant port which is a capital city port, can compete and grow. However, such mechanism is still unclear. This study thus focuses on understanding the growth of shadow port and the type of shadow port by using the two capital city ports of Thailand; Bangkok port (the former main port) and Laem Chabang port (the current main port), as the case study. By developing an understanding of the mechanisms of shadow, port could ultimately lead to an increase in the competitiveness. In this study, a framework of opportunity capture (introduced by Magala, 2004) will be used to create a framework for the study of the growth of the selected shadow port. In the process of building this framework, five groups of port development experts, consisting of government, council, academia, logistics provider and industry, will be interviewed. To facilitate this work, the Noticing, Collecting and Thinking model which was developed by Seidel (1998) will be used in an analysis of the dataset. The resulting analysis will be used to classify the type of shadow port. The type of these ports will be a significant factor for developing a feasible strategic guideline for the future management planning of ports, particularly, shadow ports, and then to increase the competitiveness of a nation’s maritime transport industry, and eventually lead to a boost in the national economy.

Keywords: shadow port, Bangkok Port, Laem Chabang Port, port growth

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Authors: Kaveh Shahi, Helmi Z. M. Shafri, Ebrahim Taherzadeh

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In remote sensing, shadow causes problems in many applications such as change detection and classification. It is caused by objects which are elevated, thus can directly affect the accuracy of information. For these reasons, it is very important to detect shadows particularly in urban high spatial resolution imagery which created a significant problem. This paper focuses on automatic shadow detection based on a new spectral index for multispectral imagery known as Shadow Detection Index (SDI). The new spectral index was tested on different areas of World-View 2 images and the results demonstrated that the new spectral index has a massive potential to extract shadows effectively and automatically.

Keywords: spectral index, shadow detection, remote sensing images, World-View 2

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Authors: Akram Hatami, Naser Firoozi, Vesa Puhakka

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Ethics and responsibility are rapidly becoming a distinguishing feature of organizations. In this paper, we analyze ethics and responsibility in shadow factories in China. We engage ourselves with Bauman’s moral impulse perspective because his idea can contextualize ethics and responsibility. Moral impulse is a feeling of a selfless, infinite and unconditional responsibility towards, and care for, Others. We analyze a case study from a secondary data source because, for such a critical phenomenon as business ethics in shadow factories, collecting primary data is difficult, since they are unregistered factories. We argue that there has not been enough attention given to the ethics and responsibility in shadow factories in China. Our main goal is to demonstrate that, considering the Other, more importantly the employees, in ethical decision-making is a simple instruction beyond the narrow version of ethics by ethical codes and rules.

Keywords: moral impulse, responsibility, shadow factories, Bauman’s moral impulse

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Authors: Rakiba Sultana

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This paper investigates how different colors are used and bring symbolic meaning comparatively in Zhang Yimou's movies Hero and Shadow. The study also explores how those colors are symbolized in contemporary society. The researcher analyzes the movies Hero and the Shadow to investigate them using colors and how they are used in contemporary society. Hero exposes the colorful colors to expose the Chinese traditions, whereas Shadow explores the gray, black, and white with the ink paints. Also, in contemporary society, sometimes, the author gets a similar symbolic meaning of the colors. Sometimes, the contemporary's meaning is different from the one used in these two movies.

Keywords: Chinese movie, visuals, colors, traditional painting, contemporary society, and Western countries

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Authors: C. Bamrungbutr, J. Sillitoe

Abstract:

Maritime transportation has been a crucial part of world economics. Recently, researchers have put effort into studying the mechanisms of how a regional port, in the shadow of a nearby predominant port, can compete and grow. However, limited research has focused on the competition issues for a shadow port which is a capital city port. This study will thus focus on this question of the growth of a capital city port which is under the shadow of the adjacent capital city port by using the two capital city ports of Thailand; Bangkok port (the former main port) and Laem Chabang port (the current main port). For this work, a framework of opportunity capture will be used, and five groups of port development experts (government, council, logistics provider, academia and industry) will be interviewed. The responses will be analysed using the noticing, collecting and thinking model. The resulting analysis will be appropriate for use in developing guidelines for the future management of a range of shadow ports established in a capital city, enabling them to operate in a competitive environment more effectively. The resultant growth of these ports will be a significant factor in increasing the competitiveness of a nation’s maritime transport industry and eventually lead to a boost in the national economy.

Keywords: shadow port, Bangkok Port, Laem Chabang Port, port competition

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Authors: Hoshang Kolivand, Mahyar Kolivand, Mohd Shahrizal Sunar, Mohd Azhar M. Arsad

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Real-time shadow generation in virtual environments and Augmented Reality (AR) was always a hot topic in the last three decades. Lots of calculation for shadow generation among AR needs a fast algorithm to overcome this issue and to be capable of implementing in any real-time rendering. In this paper, a silhouette detection algorithm is presented to generate shadows for AR systems. Δ+ algorithm is presented based on extending edges of occluders to recognize which edges are silhouettes in the case of real-time rendering. An accurate comparison between the proposed algorithm and current algorithms in silhouette detection is done to show the reduction calculation by presented algorithm. The algorithm is tested in both virtual environments and AR systems. We think that this algorithm has the potential to be a fundamental algorithm for shadow generation in all complex environments.

Keywords: silhouette detection, shadow volumes, real-time shadows, rendering, augmented reality

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Authors: Kamel Malik Bensafta, Gervasio Semedo

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The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between oil prices and socks markets. The empirical analysis in this paper is conducted within the context of Multivariate GARCH models, using a transform version of the so-called BEKK parameterization. We show that mean and uncertainty of US market are transmitted to oil market and European market. We also identify an important transmission from WTI prices to Brent Prices.

Keywords: oil volatility, stock markets, MGARCH, transmission, structural break

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Authors: Melek Akay

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Turkey's agricultural commodity prices are prone to fluctuation but have gradually over time. A considerable amount of literature examines the changes in these prices by dealing with other commodities such as energy. Links between agricultural and energy markets have therefore been extensively investigated. Since red meat prices are becoming increasingly volatile in Turkey, this paper analyses the price volatility of veal, lamb and the relationship between red meat and crude oil, exchange rates by applying the generalize all period unconstraint volatility model, which generalises the GARCH (p, q) model for analysing weekly data covering a period of May 2006 to February 2017. Empirical results show that veal and lamb prices present volatility during the last decade, but particularly between 2009 and 2012. Moreover, oil prices have a significant effect on veal and lamb prices as well as their previous periods. Consequently, our research can lead policy makers to evaluate policy implementation in the appropriate way and reduce the impacts of oil prices by supporting producers.

Keywords: red meat price, volatility, crude oil, exchange rates, GARCH models, Turkey

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Authors: Ashokkumar Subbiah

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This study investigates the impact of factors that influenced the success of construction planning for a major construction project in Qatar. An approach of participant observation is adopted which is informed by the principles of ethnography: one that reports the participants’ view of their world rather than imposing an artificial theoretical framework upon it. As participant observant, key factors were observed and identified that had an impact on the management and execution of the construction planning. It is found that a ‘shadow culture’ exists between the project participants which, it is argued, is only observable from the perspective of an embedded participant observer. The shadow culture acts to enable the management of the planning process, and its efficacy relates to the ‘quality’ of human inter-relationships amongst immediate stakeholders. Whilst this study uses the concept of shadow culture, it is treated as both a methodological stance and one of the findings of this research in the context of the major construction project in Qatar. The concept of shadow culture is not imposed upon the findings, but instead is used as a research tool: respondents report their own worldview and this is reported from the view of a participant observant in a manner that is understandable and useful to those who are not part of the construction project. The findings of this study identify similar factors influencing the planning process of the Qatar project, but the shadow culture predominantly influences these factors towards the failure of planning process. The research concludes by questioning the assumption that construction planning is a mechanistic process that has to be conducted solely by the planning team. Instead, it is a highly social phenomenon in which the seemingly mechanistic process is made workable by the quality of relationships that exist in the project. Drawing on this the final section provides a series of recommendations that may be helpful in enhancing the efficacy of project planning; these include better training/education at the pre-construction phase; recognition of the importance of shadow processes at management levels, and better appreciation of the impact of contract type and chosen procurement route.

Keywords: construction planning, participant observation, project participants, shadow culture

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Authors: Y. Bhatt, N. Ghosh, N. Tiwari

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Acreage response function are modeled taking account of expected harvest prices, weather related variables and other non-price variables allowing for partial adjustment possibility. At the outset, based on the literature on price expectation formation, we explored suitable formulations for estimating the farmer’s expected prices. Assuming that farmers form expectations rationally, the prices of food and biofuel crops are modeled using time-series methods for possible ARCH/GARCH effects to account for volatility. The prices projected on the basis of the models are then inserted to proxy for the expected prices in the acreage response functions. Food crop acreages in different growing states are found sensitive to their prices relative to those of one or more of the biofuel crops considered. The required percentage improvement in food crop yields is worked to offset the acreage loss.

Keywords: acreage response function, biofuel, food security, sustainable development

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Authors: Kamel Malik Bensafta, Gervasio Bensafta

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between oil prices and socks markets. The empirical analysis in this paper is conducted within the context of Multivariate GARCH models, using a transform version of the so-called BEKK parameterization. We show that mean and uncertainty of US market are transmitted to oil market and European market. We also identify an important transmission from WTI prices to Brent Prices.

Keywords: oil volatility, stock markets, MGARCH, transmission, structural break

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Authors: Osamah A. Alsayegh

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This paper contributes to the literature by updating the analysis of the impact of the recent oil prices fall on the renewable energy (RE) industry and deployment. The research analysis uses the Renewable Energy Industrial Index (RENIXX), which tracks the world’s 30 largest publicly traded companies and oil prices daily data from January 2003 to March 2016. RENIXX represents RE industries developing solar, wind, geothermal, bioenergy, hydropower and fuel cells technologies. This paper tests the hypothesis that claims high oil prices encourage the substitution of alternate energy sources for conventional energy sources. Furthermore, it discusses RENIXX performance behavior with respect to the governments’ policies factor that investors should take into account. Moreover, the paper proposes a theoretical model that relates RE industry progress with oil prices and policies through the fuzzy logic system.

Keywords: Fuzzy logic, investment, policy, stock exchange index

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Authors: Mei-Se Chien, Chien-Chiang Lee, Sin-Jie Cai

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The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the long-run equilibrium and short-run dynamics of international housing prices when macroeconomic variables change. We apply the Pedroni’s, panel cointegration, using the unbalanced panel data analysis of 33 countries over the period from 1980Q1 to 2013Q1, to examine the relationships among house prices and macroeconomic variables. Our empirical results of panel data cointegration tests support the existence of a cointegration among these macroeconomic variables and house prices. Besides, the empirical results of panel DOLS further present that a 1% increase in economic activity, long-term interest rates, and construction costs cause house prices to respectively change 2.16%, -0.04%, and 0.22% in the long run. Furthermore, the increasing economic activity and the construction cost would cause stronger impacts on the house prices for lower income countries than higher income countries. The results lead to the conclusion that policy of house prices growth can be regarded as economic growth for lower income countries. Finally, in America region, the coefficient of economic activity is the highest, which displays that increasing economic activity causes a faster rise in house prices there than in other regions. There are some special cases whereby the coefficients of interest rates are significantly positive in America and Asia regions.

Keywords: house prices, macroeconomic variables, panel cointegration, dynamic OLS

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Authors: Qaiser Munir, Hamid Hussain

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Oil prices are believed to have a major impact on several economic indicators, leading to several instances where a comparison between oil prices and a trade deficit of oil-importing countries have been carried out. Building upon the narrative, this paper sheds light on the ongoing debate by inquiring upon the possibility of asymmetric linkages between oil prices, industrial production, exchange rate, whole price index, and trade deficit. The analytical tool used to further understand the complexities of a recent approach called nonlinear auto-regressive distributed lag model (NARDL) is utilised. Our results suggest that there are significant asymmetric effects among the main variables of interest. Further, our findings indicate that any variation in oil prices, industrial production, exchange rate, and whole price index on trade deficit tend to fluctuate in the long run. Moreover, the long-run picture denotes that increased oil price leads to a negative impact on the trade deficit, which, in its true essence, is a disproportionate impact. In addition to this, the Wald test simultaneously conducted concludes the absence of any significant evidence of the asymmetry in the oil prices impact on the trade balance in the short-run.

Keywords: trade deficit, oil prices, developing economy, NARDL

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Authors: Haidy S. Ghali, Engy Serag, A. Samer Ezeldin

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Copper is an essential raw material used in the construction industry. During the year 2021 and the first half of 2022, the global market suffered from a significant fluctuation in copper raw material prices due to the aftermath of both the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war, which exposed its consumers to an unexpected financial risk. Thereto, this paper aims to develop two ANN-LSTM price prediction models, using Python, that can forecast the average monthly copper prices traded in the London Metal Exchange; the first model is a multivariate model that forecasts the copper price of the next 1-month and the second is a univariate model that predicts the copper prices of the upcoming three months. Historical data of average monthly London Metal Exchange copper prices are collected from January 2009 till July 2022, and potential external factors are identified and employed in the multivariate model. These factors lie under three main categories: energy prices and economic indicators of the three major exporting countries of copper, depending on the data availability. Before developing the LSTM models, the collected external parameters are analyzed with respect to the copper prices using correlation and multicollinearity tests in R software; then, the parameters are further screened to select the parameters that influence the copper prices. Then, the two LSTM models are developed, and the dataset is divided into training, validation, and testing sets. The results show that the performance of the 3-Month prediction model is better than the 1-Month prediction model, but still, both models can act as predicting tools for diverse economic situations.

Keywords: copper prices, prediction model, neural network, time series forecasting

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Authors: Raif Parlakkaya, Ahmet Diken, Erkan Kara

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This paper examines the relationship between corporate governance rating and stock prices of 26 Turkish firms listed in Turkish stock exchange (Borsa Istanbul) by using panel data analysis over five-year period. The paper also investigates the stock performance of firms with governance rating with regards to the market portfolio (i.e. BIST 100 Index) both prior and after governance scoring began. The empirical results show that there is no relation between corporate governance rating and stock prices when using panel data for annual variation in both rating score and stock prices. Further analysis indicates surprising results that while the selected firms outperform the market significantly prior to rating, the same performance does not continue afterwards.

Keywords: corporate governance, stock price, performance, panel data analysis

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Authors: Marin Mandić, Elis Sutlović, Tonći Modrić, Luka Stanić

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With the restructuring and deregulation of the power system, storage owners, generation companies or private producers can offer their multiple services on various power markets and earn income in different types of markets, such as the day-ahead, real-time, ancillary services market, etc. During the COVID-19 pandemic, electricity prices, as well as ancillary services prices, increased significantly. The optimization of the energy storage operation was performed using a suitable model for simulating the operation of a pumped storage hydropower plant under market conditions. The objective function maximizes the income earned through energy arbitration, regulation-up, regulation-down and spinning reserve services. The optimization technique used for solving the objective function is mixed integer linear programming (MILP). In numerical examples, the pumped storage hydropower plant operation has been optimized considering the already achieved hourly electricity market prices from Nord Pool for the pre-pandemic (2019) and the pandemic (2020 and 2021) years. The impact of the electricity market prices during the COVID-19 pandemic on energy storage operation is shown through the analysis of income, operating hours, reserved capacity and consumed energy for each service. The results indicate the role of energy storage during a significant fluctuation in electricity and services prices.

Keywords: electrical market prices, electricity market, energy storage optimization, mixed integer linear programming (MILP) optimization

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Authors: E. Dahlen

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Inflation can be calculated from either the prices of consumer products or from salaries. This paper presents a logical exercise that shows it is easier to calculate inflation from salaries than from consumer products. While the prices of consumer products may change due to technological advancement, such as automation, which must be corrected for, salaries do not. If technological advancements are not accounted for within calculations based on consumer product prices, inflation can be confused with real wage changes, since both inflation and real wage changes affect the prices of consumer products. The method employed in this paper is a logical exercise. Logical arguments are presented that suggest the existence of many different feasible ways by which inflation can be determined. Then a short mathematical exercise will be presented which shows that one of these methods –using salaries – contains the fewest number of unknown parameters, and hence, is the preferred method, since the risk of mistakes is lower. From the results, it can be concluded that salaries, rather than consumer products, should be used to calculate inflation.

Keywords: inflation, logic, math, real wages

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Authors: Pratheeba Subramanian, Anjula Gurtoo, Mary Mathew

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Transaction of patents in emerging patent markets is gaining momentum. Pricing patents for a transaction say patent sale remains a challenge. Patents vary in their pricing with some patents fetching higher prices than others. Sale of patents in portfolios further complicates pricing with multiple patents playing a role in pricing a bundle. In this paper, a set of 138 US patents sold individually as single invention lots and 462 US patents sold in bundles of 120 portfolios are investigated to understand the dynamics of selling prices of singletons and portfolios and their determinants. Firstly, price variations when patents are sold individually as singletons and portfolios are studied. Multivariate statistical techniques are used for analysis both at the lot level as well as at the individual patent level. The results show portfolios fetching higher prices than singletons at the lot level. However, at the individual patent level singletons show higher prices than per patent price of individual patent members within the portfolio. Secondly, to understand the price determinants, the effect of patent, seller, and bundling related characteristics on selling prices is studied separately for singletons and portfolios. The results show differences in the set of characteristics determining prices of singletons and portfolios. Selling prices of singletons are found to be dependent on the patent related characteristics, unlike portfolios whose prices are found to be dependent on all three aspects – patent, seller, and bundling. The specific patent, seller and bundling characteristics influencing selling price are discussed along with the implications.

Keywords: auction, patents, portfolio bundling, seller type, selling price, singleton

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Authors: Abimbola Adedeji, Ahmad Shauqi Zubir

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This paper examines the profitability and risk between investing in gold exchange traded funds (ETFs) and gold mutual funds compares to gold prices. The main focus in determining whether there are similarities or differences between those financial products is the tracking error. The importance of understanding the similarities or differences between the gold ETFs, gold mutual funds and gold prices is derived from the fact that gold ETFs and gold mutual funds are used as substitutions for investors who are looking to profit from gold prices although they are short in capital. 10 hypotheses were tested. There are 3 types of tracking error used. Tracking error 1 and 3 gives results that differentiate between types of ETFs and mutual funds, hence yielding the answers in answering the hypotheses that were developed. However, tracking error 2 failed to give the answer that could shed light on the questions raised in this study. All of the results in tracking error 2 technique only telling us that the difference between the ups and downs of the financial instruments are similar, statistically to the physical gold prices movement.

Keywords: gold etf, gold mutual funds, tracking error

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Authors: Mahdi Karazmodeh, Pooyan Jafari

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One of the most interesting topics in finance is the relation between stock prices and exchange rates. During the past decades different stock markets in different countries have been the subject of study for researches. The volatilities of exchange rates and its effect on stock prices during the past 10 years have continued to be an attractive research topic. The subject of this study is one of the most important indices, FTSE 100. 20 firms with the highest market capitalization in 5 different industries are chosen. Firms are included in oil and gas, mining, pharmaceuticals, banking and food related industries. 5 different criteria have been introduced to evaluate the relationship between stock markets and exchange rates. Return of market portfolio, returns on broad index of Sterling are also introduced. The results state that not all firms are sensitive to changes in exchange rates. Furthermore, a Granger Causality test has been run to observe the route of changes between stock prices and foreign exchange rates. The results are consistent, to some level, with the previous studies. However, since the number of firms is not large, it is suggested that a larger number of firms being used to achieve the best results. However results showed that not all firms are affected by foreign exchange rates changes. After testing Granger Causality, this study found out that in some industries (oil and gas, pharmaceuticals), changes in foreign exchange rate will not cause any changes in stock prices (or vice versa), however, in banking sector the situation was different. This industry showed more reaction to these changes. The results are similar to the ones with Richards and Noel, where a variety of firms in different industries were evaluated.

Keywords: stock prices, foreign exchange rate, exchange rate exposure, Granger Causality

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Authors: Anwar Hussain, Muhammad Iqbal

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The changes in the prices of the agriculture commodities combined with changes in population and agriculture productivity affect farmers’ profitability and standard of living. This study intends to estimate various domestic terms of trade for agriculture sector and also to assess the volatility in the standard of living and profitability of farmers. The terms of trade has been estimated for Pakistan and its provinces using producer prices indices, consumer price indices, input prices indices and quantity indices using the data for the period 1990-91 to 2008-09. The domestic terms of trade of agriculture sector has been improved in terms of both approaches i.e. the ratio of producer prices indices to consumer prices indices and the real per capita income approach. However, the cross province estimates indicated that the terms of trade also improved for Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Sindh and Punjab while Balochistan’s domestic terms of trade deteriorated drastically. In other words the standard of living of the farmers in Pakistan and its provinces except Balochistan improved. Using the input prices, the domestic terms of trade deteriorated for Pakistan as a whole and its provinces as well. This also explores that as a whole the profitability of the farmers reduced during the study period. The farmers pay more prices for inputs as compared to they receive for their produce. This further indicates that the poverty at the gross root level has been increased. Further, summing, the standard of living of the farmers improved but their profitability reduced, which indicates that the farmers do not completely rely on the farm income but also utilize some other sources of income for their livelihood. The study supports to give subsidies on farm inputs so as to improve the profitability of the farmers.

Keywords: agricultural terms of trade, farmers’ profitability, farmers’ standard of living, consumer and producer price indices, quantity indices

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Authors: Hla Hla Khaing, Yit Jian Liang, Nant Nyein Moe Htay, Jiang Fan

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Partial shadowing is one of the problems that are always faced in terrestrial applications of solar photovoltaic (PV). The effects of partial shadow on the energy yield of conventional mono-crystalline and multi-crystalline PV modules have been researched for a long time. With deployment of new thin-film solar PV modules in the market, it is important to understand the performance of new PV modules operating under the partial shadow in the tropical zone. This paper addresses the impacts of different partial shadowing on the operating characteristics of four different types of solar PV modules that include multi-crystalline, amorphous thin-film, CdTe thin-film and CIGS thin-film PV modules.

Keywords: partial shade, CdTe, CIGS, multi-crystalline (mc-Si), amorphous silicon (a-Si), bypass diode

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Authors: Waqqas-ur-Rehman Butt, Martin Servin, Marion Pause

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In recent years, object detection has gained much attention and very encouraging research area in the field of computer vision. The robust object boundaries detection in an image is demanded in numerous applications of human computer interaction and automated surveillance systems. Many methods and approaches have been developed for automatic object detection in various fields, such as automotive, quality control management and environmental services. Inappropriately, to the best of our knowledge, object detection under illumination with shadow consideration has not been well solved yet. Furthermore, this problem is also one of the major hurdles to keeping an object detection method from the practical applications. This paper presents an approach to automatic object detection in images under non-standardized environmental conditions. A key challenge is how to detect the object, particularly under uneven illumination conditions. Image capturing conditions the algorithms need to consider a variety of possible environmental factors as the colour information, lightening and shadows varies from image to image. Existing methods mostly failed to produce the appropriate result due to variation in colour information, lightening effects, threshold specifications, histogram dependencies and colour ranges. To overcome these limitations we propose an object detection algorithm, with pre-processing methods, to reduce the interference caused by shadow and illumination effects without fixed parameters. We use the Y CrCb colour model without any specific colour ranges and predefined threshold values. The segmented object regions are further classified using morphological operations (Erosion and Dilation) and contours. Proposed approach applied on a large image data set acquired under various environmental conditions for wood stack detection. Experiments show the promising result of the proposed approach in comparison with existing methods.

Keywords: image processing, illumination equalization, shadow filtering, object detection

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Authors: Nini Johana Marin Rodriguez

Abstract:

This paper applies DCC, EWMA and OGARCH models to compare the dynamic correlations between exchange rates, oil prices, exchange rates and stock markets to examine the time-varying conditional correlations to the daily oil prices and index returns in relation to the US dollar/local currency for developed (Canada and Mexico) and emerging Latin American markets (Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Peru). Changes in correlation interactions are indicative of structural changes in market linkages with implications to contagion and interdependence. For each pair of stock price-exchange rate and oil price-US dollar/local currency, empirical evidence confirms of a strengthening negative correlation in the last decade. Methodologies suggest only two events have significatively impact in the countries analyzed: global financial crisis and Europe crisis, both events are associated with shifts of correlations to stronger negative level for most of the pairs analyzed. While, the first event has a shifting effect on mainly emerging members, the latter affects developed members. The identification of these relationships provides benefits in risk diversification and inflation targeting.

Keywords: crude oil, dynamic conditional correlation, exchange rates, interdependence, stock prices

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Authors: Renzo Munoz-Najar, Cristina Wong, Daniel De La Torre Ugarte

Abstract:

The literature on price transmission usually deals with asymmetries related to different commodities and/or the short and long term. The role of domestic regional differences and the relationship with asymmetries within a country are usually left out. This paper looks at the asymmetry in the transmission of rice prices from the international price to the farm gate prices in four northern regions of Peru for the last period 2001-2016. These regions are San Martín, Piura, Lambayeque and La Libertad. The relevance of the study lies in its ability to assess the need for policies aimed at improving the competitiveness of the market and ensuring the benefit of producers. There are differences in planting and harvesting dates, as well as in geographic location that justify the hypothesis of the existence of differences in the price transition asymmetries between these regions. Those differences are due to at least three factors geography, infrastructure development, and distribution systems. For this, the Threshold Vector Error Correction Model and the Autoregressive Vector Model with Threshold are used. Both models, collect asymmetric effects in the price adjustments. In this way, it is sought to verify that farm prices react more to falls than increases in international prices due to the high bargaining power of intermediaries. The results of the investigation suggest that the transmission of prices is significant only for Lambayeque and La Libertad. Likewise, the asymmetry in the transmission of prices for these regions is checked. However, these results are not met for San Martin and Piura, the main rice producers nationwide. A significant price transmission is verified only in the Lambayeque and La Libertad regions. San Martin and Piura, in spite of being the main rice producing regions of Peru, do not present a significant transmission of international prices; a high degree of self-sufficient supply might be at the center of the logic for this result. An additional finding is the short-term adjustment with respect to international prices, it is higher in La Libertad compared to Lambayeque, which could be explained by the greater bargaining power of intermediaries in the last-mentioned region due to the greater technological development in the mills.

Keywords: asymmetric price transmission, rice prices, price transmission, regional economics

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