Search results for: separating the variables
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 4198

Search results for: separating the variables

3958 New Machine Learning Optimization Approach Based on Input Variables Disposition Applied for Time Series Prediction

Authors: Hervice Roméo Fogno Fotsoa, Germaine Djuidje Kenmoe, Claude Vidal Aloyem Kazé

Abstract:

One of the main applications of machine learning is the prediction of time series. But a more accurate prediction requires a more optimal model of machine learning. Several optimization techniques have been developed, but without considering the input variables disposition of the system. Thus, this work aims to present a new machine learning architecture optimization technique based on their optimal input variables disposition. The validations are done on the prediction of wind time series, using data collected in Cameroon. The number of possible dispositions with four input variables is determined, i.e., twenty-four. Each of the dispositions is used to perform the prediction, with the main criteria being the training and prediction performances. The results obtained from a static architecture and a dynamic architecture of neural networks have shown that these performances are a function of the input variable's disposition, and this is in a different way from the architectures. This analysis revealed that it is necessary to take into account the input variable's disposition for the development of a more optimal neural network model. Thus, a new neural network training algorithm is proposed by introducing the search for the optimal input variables disposition in the traditional back-propagation algorithm. The results of the application of this new optimization approach on the two single neural network architectures are compared with the previously obtained results step by step. Moreover, this proposed approach is validated in a collaborative optimization method with a single objective optimization technique, i.e., genetic algorithm back-propagation neural networks. From these comparisons, it is concluded that each proposed model outperforms its traditional model in terms of training and prediction performance of time series. Thus the proposed optimization approach can be useful in improving the accuracy of time series forecasts. This proves that the proposed optimization approach can be useful in improving the accuracy of time series prediction based on machine learning.

Keywords: input variable disposition, machine learning, optimization, performance, time series prediction

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3957 A quantitative Analysis of Impact of Potential Variables on the Energy Performance of Old and New Buildings in China

Authors: Yao Meng, Mahroo Eftekhari, Dennis Loveday

Abstract:

Currently, there are two types of heating systems in Chinese residential buildings, with respect to the controllability of the heating system, one is an old heating system without any possibility of controlling room temperature and another is a new heating system that provides temperature control of individual rooms. This paper is aiming to evaluate the impact of potential variables on the energy performance of old and new buildings respectively in China, and to explore how the use of individual room temperature control would change occupants’ heating behaviour and thermal comfort in Chinese residential buildings and its impact on the building energy performance. In the study, two types of residential buildings have been chosen, the new building install personal control on the heating system, together with ‘pay for what you use’ tariffs. The old building comprised uncontrolled heating with payment based on floor area. The studies were carried out in each building, with a longitudinal monitoring of indoor air temperature, outdoor air temperature, window position. The occupants’ behaviour and thermal sensation were evaluated by questionnaires. Finally, use the simulated analytic method to identify the impact of influence variables on energy use for both types of buildings.

Keywords: residential buildings, China, design parameters, energy efficiency, simulation analytics method

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3956 People Management, Knowledge Sharing and Intermediary Variables

Authors: Nizar Mansour, Chiha Gaha, Emna Gara

Abstract:

The present research investigates the relationship among HRM practices, knowledge sharing behavior and a certain number of intermediary variables in the context of Tunisian knowledge-intensive firms. Results suggest that five HR practices influence either directly or indirectly the knowledge sharing behavior through enhancing the value of human capital and fostering a learning-oriented organizational climate. Results have strong theoretical implications for both the fields of knowledge management and strategic human resource management. Managerial implications are also derived.

Keywords: human capital, knowledge intensive firms, knowledge sharing, organizational climate, Tunisia

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3955 The Relationship between Land Use Factors and Feeling of Happiness at the Neighbourhood Level

Authors: M. Moeinaddini, Z. Asadi-Shekari, Z. Sultan, M. Zaly Shah

Abstract:

Happiness can be related to everything that can provide a feeling of satisfaction or pleasure. This study tries to consider the relationship between land use factors and feeling of happiness at the neighbourhood level. Land use variables (beautiful and attractive neighbourhood design, availability and quality of shopping centres, sufficient recreational spaces and facilities, and sufficient daily service centres) are used as independent variables and the happiness score is used as the dependent variable in this study. In addition to the land use variables, socio-economic factors (gender, race, marital status, employment status, education, and income) are also considered as independent variables. This study uses the Oxford happiness questionnaire to estimate happiness score of more than 300 people living in six neighbourhoods. The neighbourhoods are selected randomly from Skudai neighbourhoods in Johor, Malaysia. The land use data were obtained by adding related questions to the Oxford happiness questionnaire. The strength of the relationship in this study is found using generalised linear modelling (GLM). The findings of this research indicate that increase in happiness feeling is correlated with an increasing income, more beautiful and attractive neighbourhood design, sufficient shopping centres, recreational spaces, and daily service centres. The results show that all land use factors in this study have significant relationship with happiness but only income, among socio-economic factors, can affect happiness significantly. Therefore, land use factors can affect happiness in Skudai more than socio-economic factors.

Keywords: neighbourhood land use, neighbourhood design, happiness, socio-economic factors, generalised linear modelling

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3954 The Conduct of Laundering Money through Transport of Cash in the Middle East and North Africa Region

Authors: Haytham Yassine

Abstract:

This article mainly aims to detect and understand how money laundering activities are executed by transport of cash, identifying the underlying factors and separating legitimate from illegitimate usage of cash and how it is being used. This research provides academics with additional literature and provides bank supervisors and practitioners with a better understanding of sources and uses of cash in criminal activities and how cash is used in the laundering mechanism. Data are gathered through survey in the Middle East and North Africa region and review of the available research. The results of the analysis will help distinguish the factors affecting preference for cash rather other payment instruments in the region, identify what causes the tendency to launder illegal proceeds through cash transportation and how illegal cash is being laundered and moved. On the other hand, this paper sheds the light on major cash generating criminal activities, its sources and main destinations.

Keywords: illegitimate activities, cash, money laundering, terrorism financing

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3953 Swimming Pool Water Chlorination Detection System Utilizing TDSTestr

Authors: Fahad Alamoudi, Yaser Miaji, Fawzy Jalalah

Abstract:

The growing popularity of swimming pools and other activities in the water for sport, fitness, therapy or just enjoyable relaxation have led to the increased use of swimming pools and the establishment of a variety of specific-use pools such as spa pools, Waterslides and more recently, hydrotherapy and wave pools. In this research a few simple equipments are used for test, Detect and alert for detection of water cleanness and pollution. YSI Photometer Systems, TDSTestr High model, rio 12HF, and Electrode A1. The researchers used electrolysis as a method of separating bonded elements and compounds by passing an electric current through them. The results which use 41 experiments show the higher the salt concentration, the more efficient the electrode and the smaller the gap between the plates and The lower the electrode voltage. Furthermore, it is proved that the larger the surface area, the lower the cell voltage and the higher current used the more chlorine produced.

Keywords: photometer, electrode, electrolysis, swimming pool chlorination

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3952 Review of Downscaling Methods in Climate Change and Their Role in Hydrological Studies

Authors: Nishi Bhuvandas, P. V. Timbadiya, P. L. Patel, P. D. Porey

Abstract:

Recent perceived climate variability raises concerns with unprecedented hydrological phenomena and extremes. Distribution and circulation of the waters of the Earth become increasingly difficult to determine because of additional uncertainty related to anthropogenic emissions. According to the sixth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Technical Paper on Climate Change and water, changes in the large-scale hydrological cycle have been related to an increase in the observed temperature over several decades. Although many previous research carried on effect of change in climate on hydrology provides a general picture of possible hydrological global change, new tools and frameworks for modelling hydrological series with nonstationary characteristics at finer scales, are required for assessing climate change impacts. Of the downscaling techniques, dynamic downscaling is usually based on the use of Regional Climate Models (RCMs), which generate finer resolution output based on atmospheric physics over a region using General Circulation Model (GCM) fields as boundary conditions. However, RCMs are not expected to capture the observed spatial precipitation extremes at a fine cell scale or at a basin scale. Statistical downscaling derives a statistical or empirical relationship between the variables simulated by the GCMs, called predictors, and station-scale hydrologic variables, called predictands. The main focus of the paper is on the need for using statistical downscaling techniques for projection of local hydrometeorological variables under climate change scenarios. The projections can be then served as a means of input source to various hydrologic models to obtain streamflow, evapotranspiration, soil moisture and other hydrological variables of interest.

Keywords: climate change, downscaling, GCM, RCM

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3951 Development of Adhesive from Prosopis african Seed Endosperm (OKPEYI)

Authors: Florence Chinyere Nwangwu, Rosemary Ene

Abstract:

An experimental study was carried out to develop an adhesive from Prosopis africana seed endosperm. The Prosopis seeds for this work were obtained from Enugu State in the South East part of Nigeria. The Prosopis seeds were prepared by separating the Prosopis endosperm from the seed coat and cotyledon. The dry adhesive gotten from the endosperm was later dissolved to get the adhesive solution. Confirmatory tests like viscosity, density, pH, and binding strength were carried out. The effect of time, temperature, concentration on the yield and properties of the adhesive were investigated. The results obtained showed that increase in concentration, time, temperature decreases the viscosity of the Prosopis adhesive and yield of Prosopis endosperm. It was also deduced that increase in viscosity increases the binding strength of the Prosopis adhesive. The percentage of the adhesive yield from Prosopis endosperm showed that the commercialization of the seed in Nigeria will be possible and profitable.

Keywords: adhesive, Prosopis, viscosity, endosperm

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3950 Surge in U. S. Citizens Expatriation: Testing Structual Equation Modeling to Explain the Underlying Policy Rational

Authors: Marco Sewald

Abstract:

Comparing present to past the numbers of Americans expatriating U. S. citizenship have risen. Even though these numbers are small compared to the immigrants, U. S. citizens expatriations have historically been much lower, making the uptick worrisome. In addition, the published lists and numbers from the U.S. government seems incomplete, with many not counted. Different branches of the U. S. government report different numbers and no one seems to know exactly how big the real number is, even though the IRS and the FBI both track and/or publish numbers of Americans who renounce. Since there is no single explanation, anecdotal evidence suggests this uptick is caused by global tax law and increased compliance burdens imposed by the U.S. lawmakers on U.S. citizens abroad. Within a research project the question arose about the reasons why a constant growing number of U.S. citizens are expatriating – the answers are believed helping to explain the underlying governmental policy rational, leading to such activities. While it is impossible to locate former U.S. citizens to conduct a survey on the reasons and the U.S. government is not commenting on the reasons given within the process of expatriation, the chosen methodology is Structural Equation Modeling (SEM), in the first step by re-using current surveys conducted by different researchers within the population of U. S. citizens residing abroad during the last years. Surveys questioning the personal situation in the context of tax, compliance, citizenship and likelihood to repatriate to the U. S. In general SEM allows: (1) Representing, estimating and validating a theoretical model with linear (unidirectional or not) relationships. (2) Modeling causal relationships between multiple predictors (exogenous) and multiple dependent variables (endogenous). (3) Including unobservable latent variables. (4) Modeling measurement error: the degree to which observable variables describe latent variables. Moreover SEM seems very appealing since the results can be represented either by matrix equations or graphically. Results: the observed variables (items) of the construct are caused by various latent variables. The given surveys delivered a high correlation and it is therefore impossible to identify the distinct effect of each indicator on the latent variable – which was one desired result. Since every SEM comprises two parts: (1) measurement model (outer model) and (2) structural model (inner model), it seems necessary to extend the given data by conducting additional research and surveys to validate the outer model to gain the desired results.

Keywords: expatriation of U. S. citizens, SEM, structural equation modeling, validating

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3949 Compressible Flow Modeling in Pipes and Porous Media during Blowdown Experiment

Authors: Thomas Paris, Vincent Bruyere, Patrick Namy

Abstract:

A numerical model is developed to simulate gas blowdowns through a thin tube and a filter (porous media), separating a high pressure gas filled reservoir to low pressure ones. Based on a previous work, a one-dimensional approach is developed by using the finite element method to solve the transient compressible flow and to predict the pressure and temperature evolution in space and time. Mass, momentum, and energy conservation equations are solved in a fully coupled way in the reservoirs, the pipes and the porous media. Numerical results, such as pressure and temperature evolutions, are firstly compared with experimental data to validate the model for different configurations. Couplings between porous media and pipe flow are then validated by checking mass balance. The influence of the porous media and the nature of the gas is then studied for different initial high pressure values.

Keywords: compressible flow, fluid mechanics, heat transfer, porous media

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3948 The Study of the Determinants of Impulse Buying in Algeria

Authors: Amina Merabet, Ali Iznasni, Abderrezzak Benhabib

Abstract:

Impulse buying is of strategic importance to distributors. Currently, distribution companies rely heavily on contextual variables (music, smells, colors, sound, design ...) in order to push customers towards purchase and consumption. As such, a crucial way for commercial brands to increase sales is to stimulate impulse buying. For this reason, this study aims at identifying the factors that initiate and encourage impulse buying, as well as the levers that help distributors highlight effective marketing techniques in order to encourage consumers to make impulse purchase. Thus, we try to show, upon a field survey of 590 buyers, the impact of situational elements of both the store and the product on achieving impulse buying.

Keywords: Algerian shoppers, impulse buying, shopping environment, situational variables, product

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3947 A Time since of Injection Model for Hepatitis C Amongst People Who Inject Drugs

Authors: Nader Al-Rashidi, David Greenhalgh

Abstract:

Mathematical modelling techniques are now being used by health organizations worldwide to help understand the likely impact that intervention strategies treatment options and combinations of these have on the prevalence and incidence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) in the people who inject drugs (PWID) population. In this poster, we develop a deterministic, compartmental mathematical model to approximate the spread of the HCV in a PWID population that has been divided into two groups by time since onset of injection. The model assumes that after injection needles adopt the most infectious state of their previous state or that of the PWID who last injected with them. Using analytical techniques, we find that the model behaviour is determined by the basic reproductive number R₀, where R₀ = 1 is a critical threshold separating two different outcomes. The disease-free equilibrium is globally stable if R₀ ≤ 1 and unstable if R₀ > 1. Additionally, we make some simulations where have confirmed that the model tends to this endemic equilibrium value with realistic parameter values giving an HCV prevalence.

Keywords: hepatitis C, people who inject drugs, HCV, PWID

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3946 Pre-Operative Psychological Factors Significantly Add to the Predictability of Chronic Narcotic Use: A Two Year Prospective Study

Authors: Dana El-Mughayyar, Neil Manson, Erin Bigney, Eden Richardson, Dean Tripp, Edward Abraham

Abstract:

Use of narcotics to treat pain has increased over the past two decades and is a contributing factor to the current public health crisis. Understanding the pre-operative risks of chronic narcotic use may be aided through investigation of psychological measures. The objective of the reported study is to determine predictors of narcotic use two years post-surgery in a thoracolumbar spine surgery population, including an array of psychological factors. A prospective observational study of 191 consecutively enrolled adult patients having undergone thoracolumbar spine surgery is presented. Baseline measures of interest included the Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS), Tampa Scale for Kinesiophobia, Multidimensional Scale for Perceived Social Support (MSPSS), Chronic Pain Acceptance Questionnaire (CPAQ-8), Oswestry Disability Index (ODI), Numeric Rating Scales for back and leg pain (NRS-B/L), SF-12’s Mental Component Summary (MCS), narcotic use and demographic variables. The post-operative measure of interest is narcotic use at 2-year follow-up. Narcotic use is collapsed into binary categories of use and no use. Descriptive statistics are run. Chi Square analysis is used for categorical variables and an ANOVA for continuous variables. Significant variables are built into a hierarchical logistic regression to determine predictors of post-operative narcotic use. Significance is set at α < 0.05. Results: A total of 27.23% of the sample were using narcotics two years after surgery. The regression model included ODI, NRS-Leg, time with condition, chief complaint, pre-operative drug use, gender, MCS, PCS subscale helplessness, and CPAQ subscale pain willingness and was significant χ² (13, N=191)= 54.99; p = .000. The model accounted for 39.6% of the variance in narcotic use and correctly predicted in 79.7% of cases. Psychological variables accounted for 9.6% of the variance over and above the other predictors. Conclusions: Managing chronic narcotic usage is central to the patient’s overall health and quality of life. Psychological factors in the preoperative period are significant predictors of narcotic use 2 years post-operatively. The psychological variables are malleable, potentially allowing surgeons to direct their patients to preventative resources prior to surgery.

Keywords: narcotics, psychological factors, quality of life, spine surgery

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3945 Human Development Strengthening against Terrorism in ASEAN East Asia and Pacific: An Econometric Analysis

Authors: Tismazammi Mustafa, Jaharudin Padli

Abstract:

The frequency of terrorism is increasing throughout years that is resulting in loss of life, damaging people’s property, and destructing the environment. The incident of terrorism is not stationed in one particular country but has spread and scattered in other countries hence causing an increase in the number of terrorism cases. Thus, this paper aims to investigate the factors of human development upon the terrorism in East Asia and Pacific countries. This study used a panel ARDL model, in which it enables to capture the long run and the short run relationship among the variables of interest. Logit Model for Binary data is also used, in which to representing an attributes of dependent variables. This study focuses on several human development variables namely GDP per capita, population, human capital, land area, and technologies. The empirical finding revealed that the GDP per capita, population, human capital, land area, and technologies are positively and statistically significant in influencing the terrorism. Thus, the finding in this study will present as grounds to preserve human rights and develop public awareness and will offer guidelines to policy makers, emergency managers, first responders, public health workers, physicians, and other researchers.

Keywords: terrorism, East Asia and Pacific, human development, econometric analysis

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3944 Investigation of the Effect of Grid Size on External Store Separation Trajectory Using CFD

Authors: Alaa A. Osman, Amgad M. Bayoumy Aly, Ismail El baialy, Osama E. Abdellatif, Essam E. Khallil

Abstract:

In this paper, a numerical simulation of a finned store separating from a wing-pylon configuration has been studied and validated. A dynamic unstructured tetrahedral mesh approach is accomplished by using three grid sizes to numerically solving the discretized three dimensional, inviscid and compressible Navier-stokes equations. The method used for computations of separation of an external store assuming quasi-steady flow condition. Computations of quasi-steady flow have been directly coupled to a six degree-of-freedom (6DOF) rigid-body motion code to generate store trajectories. The pressure coefficients at four different angular cuts and time histories of various trajectory parameters during the store separation are compared for every grid size with published experimental data.

Keywords: CFD modelling, transonic store separation, quasi-steady flow, moving-body trajectories

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3943 Impact of Board Characteristics on Financial Performance: A Study of Manufacturing Sector of Pakistan

Authors: Saad Bin Nasir

Abstract:

The research will examine the role of corporate governance (CG) practices on firm’s financial performance. Population of this research will be manufacture sector of Pakistan. For the purposes of measurement of impact of corporate governance practices such as board size, board independence, ceo/chairman duality, will take as independent variables and for the measurement of firm’s performance return on assets and return on equity will take as dependent variables. Panel data regression model will be used to estimate the impact of CG on firm performance.

Keywords: corporate governance, board size, board independence, leadership

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3942 Evaluation and Comparison of Male and Female Students’ Life Skills of Theoretical, Technical-Vocational and Job and Knowledge Branches of Secondary High School Period

Authors: Khalil Aryanfar, Shahrzad Sanjari, Elmira Hafez, Pariya Gholipor

Abstract:

The aim of this study was to Evaluate and compare the male and female students’ life skills of theoretical, technical-vocational and Job and Knowledge branches of secondary high school period. The research method is descriptive - survey Research population was 5892 students from three high schools in Tehran, sample size was determined 342 patients according to Morgan’s table and by stratified random sampling. The data collection tool was a questionnaire designed by the researchers that the reliability was more than 85/0 respectively. Data was anglicized by Kryskal Wallis and Mann-Whitney U-test. In three branches of theoretical, technical-vocational and Job and Knowledge The variables of academic achievement, the importance of organization, problem solving, seeking knowledge, good habits, mental and physical self-concept, family orientation and future orientation was not significant differences, in the variables of cooperative behavior, and ready for change was but significant differences. Variables such as academic achievement, seek knowledge, good habits, mental and physical, seeking direction to future cooperative behavior between boys and girls with the confidence of at least 95/0 and the variable ready for change among boys and girls by ensuring 0932 / There was an However, the importance of variables, problem solving, self-concept and family orientation was not significantly different.

Keywords: life skills, high school, theoretical, technical-vocational, job and knowledge

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3941 Investigation of Main Operating Parameters Affecting Gas Turbine Efficiency and Gas Releases

Authors: Farhat Hajer, Khir Tahar, Ammar Ben Brahim

Abstract:

This work presents a study on the influence of the main operating variables on the gas turbine cycle. A numerical simulation of a gas turbine cycle is performed for a real net power of 100 MW. A calculation code is developed using EES software. The operating variables are taken in conformity with the local environmental conditions adopted by the Tunisian Society of Electricity and Gas. Results show that the increase of ambient temperature leads to an increase of Tpz and NOx emissions rate and a decrease of cycle efficiency and UHC emissions. The CO emissions decrease with the raise of residence time, while NOx emissions rate increases and UHC emissions rate decreases. Furthermore, both of cycle efficiency and NOx emissions increase with the increase of the pressure ratio.

Keywords: Carbon monoxide, Efficiency, Emissions, Gas Turbine, Nox, UHC

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3940 The Correlation of Economic Variables on Domestic Investment

Authors: Amirreza Attarzadeh

Abstract:

This paper aims to investigate the relationship between economic variables, e.g., inflation rate, interest rate, trade openness and the growth rate of GDP, with domestic investment. The present study also draws on conceptual economy related theories to verify the negative effect of interest rates on domestic investment. However, trade openness and growth rate had a positive correlation, and the inflation rate may have a positive or negative impact on domestic investment.

Keywords: inflation rate, growth rate of GDP, interest rate and trade openness, domestic investment

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3939 Growth and Development of Membranes in Gas Sequestration

Authors: Sreevalli Bokka

Abstract:

The process of reducing the intensity of the carbon from a process or stream into the atmosphere is termed Decarbonization. Of the various technologies that are emerging to capture or reduce carbon intensity, membranes are emerging as a key player in separating carbon from a gas stream, such as industrial effluent air and others. Due to the advantage of high surface area and low flow resistance, fiber membranes are emerging widely for gas separation applications. A fiber membrane is a semipermeable barrier that is increasingly used for filtration and separation applications needing high packing density. A few of the many applications are in water desalination, medical applications, bioreactors, and gas separations applications. Only a few polymeric membranes were studied for fabricating fiber membranes such as cellulose acetate, Polysulfone, and Polyvinylidene fluoride. A few of the challenges of using fiber membranes are fouling and weak mechanical properties, leading to the breakage of membranes. In this work, the growth of fiber membranes and challenges for future developments in the filtration and gas separation applications are presented.

Keywords: membranes, filtration, separations, polymers, carbon capture

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3938 The Antecedent Variables of Government Financial Accounting System (SAKD) Implementation and Its Consequences: Empirical Study on the Device of Regional Coordinating Agency for Development of Cross County, City Region III Central Java Province, Indo

Authors: Dona Primasari

Abstract:

This study examines the antecedent variables of Government Financial Acccounting System (SAKD) implementation and its consequence. The antecedent variables are: decentralization of decision making, adaptation, and the manager support. The consequences are satisfaction and performance officer. This research represents the empirical test which used convenience sampling technics in data collection. The data were collected from 167 officers of local government in the Regional Coordinating Agency for Development of Cross County/City Region III Central Java Province. Data analysis used Structural Equation Model (SEM) with the AMOS 18.0 program. The result of hypothesis examination indicates that six raised hypothesis are accepted and two hypothesis are rejected.

Keywords: decentralization of decision making, adaptation officer, manager support, implementation of Government Accounting Financial System (SAKD), satisfaction and performance officer

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3937 Stress Analysis of Water Wall Tubes of a Coal-fired Boiler during Soot Blowing Operation

Authors: Pratch Kittipongpattana, Thongchai Fongsamootr

Abstract:

This research aimed to study the influences of a soot blowing operation and geometrical variables to the stress characteristic of water wall tubes located in soot blowing areas which caused the boilers of Mae Moh power plant to lose their generation hour. The research method is divided into 2 parts (a) measuring the strain on water wall tubes by using 3-element rosette strain gages orientation during a full capacity plant operation and in periods of soot blowing operations (b) creating a finite element model in order to calculate stresses on tubes and validating the model by using experimental data in a steady state plant operation. Then, the geometrical variables in the model were changed to study stresses on the tubes. The results revealed that the stress was not affected by the soot blowing process and the finite element model gave the results 1.24% errors from the experiment. The geometrical variables influenced the stress, with the most optimum tubes design in this research reduced the average stress from the present design 31.28%.

Keywords: boiler water wall tube, finite element, stress analysis, strain gage rosette

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3936 Joint Probability Distribution of Extreme Water Level with Rainfall and Temperature: Trend Analysis of Potential Impacts of Climate Change

Authors: Ali Razmi, Saeed Golian

Abstract:

Climate change is known to have the potential to impact adversely hydrologic patterns for variables such as rainfall, maximum and minimum temperature and sea level rise. Long-term average of these climate variables could possibly change over time due to climate change impacts. In this study, trend analysis was performed on rainfall, maximum and minimum temperature and water level data of a coastal area in Manhattan, New York City, Central Park and Battery Park stations to investigate if there is a significant change in the data mean. Partial Man-Kendall test was used for trend analysis. Frequency analysis was then performed on data using common probability distribution functions such as Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), normal, log-normal and log-Pearson. Goodness of fit tests such as Kolmogorov-Smirnov are used to determine the most appropriate distributions. In flood frequency analysis, rainfall and water level data are often separately investigated. However, in determining flood zones, simultaneous consideration of rainfall and water level in frequency analysis could have considerable effect on floodplain delineation (flood extent and depth). The present study aims to perform flood frequency analysis considering joint probability distribution for rainfall and storm surge. First, correlation between the considered variables was investigated. Joint probability distribution of extreme water level and temperature was also investigated to examine how global warming could affect sea level flooding impacts. Copula functions were fitted to data and joint probability of water level with rainfall and temperature for different recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 25, 50, 100, 200, 500, 600 and 1000 was determined and compared with the severity of individual events. Results for trend analysis showed increase in long-term average of data that could be attributed to climate change impacts. GEV distribution was found as the most appropriate function to be fitted to the extreme climate variables. The results for joint probability distribution analysis confirmed the necessity for incorporation of both rainfall and water level data in flood frequency analysis.

Keywords: climate change, climate variables, copula, joint probability

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3935 Impact of Climate Variability on Dispersal and Distribution of Airborne Pollen and Fungal Spores in Nsukka, South-East Nigeria: Implication on Public Health

Authors: Dimphna Ezikanyi, Gloria Sakwari

Abstract:

Airborne pollen and fungal spores are major triggers of allergies, and their abundance and seasonality depend on plant responses to climatic and meteorological variables. A survey of seasonal prevalence of airborne pollen and fungal spores in Nsukka, Enugu, South- East Nigeria and relationship to climatic variables were carried out from Jan-June, 2017. The aim of the study was to access climate change and variability over time in the area and their accrued influence on modern pollen and spores rain. Decadal change in climate was accessed from variables collected from meteorological centre in the study area. Airborne samples were collected monthly using a modified Tauber-like pollen samplers raised 5 ft above ground level. Aerosamples collected were subjected to acetolysis. Dominant pollen recorded were those of Poaceae, Elaeis guinensis Jacq. and Casuarina equisetifolia L. Change in weather brought by onset of rainfall evoked sporulation and dispersal of diverse spores into ambient air especially potent allergenic spores with the spores of Ovularia, Bispora, Curvularia, Nigrospora, Helminthosporium preponderant; these 'hydrophilic fungi' were abundant in the rainy season though in varying quantities. Total fungal spores correlated positively with monthly rainfall and humidity but negatively with temperature. There was a negative though not significant correlation between total pollen count and rainfall. The study revealed a strong influence of climatic variables on abundance and spatial distribution of pollen and fungal spores in the ambient atmosphere.

Keywords: allergy, fungal spores, pollen, weather parameters

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3934 Fast Bayesian Inference of Multivariate Block-Nearest Neighbor Gaussian Process (NNGP) Models for Large Data

Authors: Carlos Gonzales, Zaida Quiroz, Marcos Prates

Abstract:

Several spatial variables collected at the same location that share a common spatial distribution can be modeled simultaneously through a multivariate geostatistical model that takes into account the correlation between these variables and the spatial autocorrelation. The main goal of this model is to perform spatial prediction of these variables in the region of study. Here we focus on a geostatistical multivariate formulation that relies on sharing common spatial random effect terms. In particular, the first response variable can be modeled by a mean that incorporates a shared random spatial effect, while the other response variables depend on this shared spatial term, in addition to specific random spatial effects. Each spatial random effect is defined through a Gaussian process with a valid covariance function, but in order to improve the computational efficiency when the data are large, each Gaussian process is approximated to a Gaussian random Markov field (GRMF), specifically to the block nearest neighbor Gaussian process (Block-NNGP). This approach involves dividing the spatial domain into several dependent blocks under certain constraints, where the cross blocks allow capturing the spatial dependence on a large scale, while each individual block captures the spatial dependence on a smaller scale. The multivariate geostatistical model belongs to the class of Latent Gaussian Models; thus, to achieve fast Bayesian inference, it is used the integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) method. The good performance of the proposed model is shown through simulations and applications for massive data.

Keywords: Block-NNGP, geostatistics, gaussian process, GRMF, INLA, multivariate models.

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3933 Design of Single Point Mooring Buoy System by Parametric Analysis

Authors: Chul-Hee Jo, Do-Youb Kim, Seok-Jin Cho, Yu-Ho Rho

Abstract:

The Catenary Anchor Leg Mooring (CALM) Single Point Mooring (SPM) buoy system is the most popular and widely used type of offshore loading terminals. SPM buoy mooring systems have been deployed worldwide for a variety of applications, water depths and vessel sizes ranging from small production carriers to Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs). Because of safe and easy berthing and un-berthing operations, the SPM buoy mooring system is also preferred for offshore terminals. The SPM buoy consists of a buoy that is permanently moored to the seabed by means of multiple mooring lines. The buoy contains a bearing system that allows a part of it to rotate around the moored geostatic part. When moored to the rotating part of the buoy, a vessel is able to freely weathervane around the buoy. This study was verified the effects of design variables in order to design an SPM buoy mooring system through parametric analysis. The design variables have independent and nonlinear characteristics. Using parametric analysis, this research was found that the fairlead departure angle, wave height and period, chain diameter and line length effect to the mooring top tension, buoy excursion and line layback.

Keywords: Single Point Mooring (SPM), Catenary Anchor Leg Mooring(CALM), design variables, parametric analysis, mooring system optimization

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3932 Considering Cultural and Linguistic Variables When Working as a Speech-Language Pathologist with Multicultural Students

Authors: Gabriela Smeckova

Abstract:

The entire world is becoming more and more diverse. The reasons why people migrate are different and unique for each family /individual. Professionals delivering services (including speech-language pathologists) must be prepared to work with clients coming from different cultural and/or linguistic backgrounds. Well-educated speech-language pathologists will consider many factors when delivering services. Some of them will be discussed during the presentation (language spoken, beliefs about health care and disabilities, reasons for immigration, etc.). The communication styles of the client can be different than the styles of the speech-language pathologist. The goal is to become culturally responsive in service delivery.

Keywords: culture, cultural competence, culturallly responsive practices, speech-language pathologist, cultural and linguistical variables, communication styles

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3931 Analysis of Municipal Solid Waste Management in Nigeria

Authors: Anisa Gumel

Abstract:

This study examines the present condition of solid waste management in Nigeria. The author explores the challenges and opportunities affecting municipal solid waste management in "Nigeria" and determines the most profound challenges by analysing the interdependence and interrelationship among identified variables. In this study, multiple stakeholders, including 15 waste management professionals interviewed online, were utilised to identify the difficulties and opportunities affecting municipal solid waste in Nigeria. The interviews were transcribed and coded using NVivo to produce pertinent variables. An online survey of Nigerian internet and social media users was done to validate statements made by experts on the identified variable. In addition, a panel of five experts participated in a focus group discussion to discover the most influential factors that influence municipal solid waste management in Nigeria by analysing the interrelationships as well as the driving and reliant power of variables. The results show significant factors affecting municipal solid waste in Nigeria, including inadequate funding, lack of knowledge, and absence of legislation, as well as behavioural, financial, technological, and legal concerns grouped into five categories. Some claims stated by experts in the interview are supported by the survey data, while others are not. In addition, the focus group reveals patterns, correlations, and driving forces between variables that have been analysed. This study will provide decision-makers with a roadmap for resolving important waste management concerns in Nigeria and managing scarce resources effectively. It will also help non-governmental organisations combat malaria in Nigeria and other underdeveloped nations. In addition, the work contributes to the literature for future scholars to consult.

Keywords: municipal solid waste, stakeholders, public, experts

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3930 Two-Photon Ionization of Silver Clusters

Authors: V. Paployan, K. Madoyan, A. Melikyan, H. Minassian

Abstract:

Resonant two-photon ionization (TPI) is a valuable technique for the study of clusters due to its ultrahigh sensitivity. The comparison of the observed TPI spectra with results of calculations allows to deduce important information on the shape, rotational and vibrational temperatures of the clusters with high accuracy. In this communication we calculate the TPI cross-section for pump-probe scheme in Ag neutral cluster. The pump photon energy is chosen to be close to the surface plasmon (SP) energy of cluster in dielectric media. Since the interband transition energy in Ag exceeds the SP resonance energy, the main contribution into the TPI comes from the latter. The calculations are performed by separating the coordinates of electrons corresponding to the collective oscillations and the individual motion that allows to take into account the resonance contribution of excited SP oscillations. It is shown that the ionization cross section increases by two orders of magnitude if the energy of the pump photon matches the surface plasmon energy in the cluster.

Keywords: resonance enhancement, silver clusters, surface plasmon, two-photon ionization

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3929 The Motivational Factors of Learning Languages for Specific Purposes

Authors: Janos Farkas, Maria Czeller, Ildiko Tar

Abstract:

A remarkable feature of today’s language teaching is the learners’ language learning motivation. It is always considered as a very important factor and has been widely discussed and investigated. This paper aims to present a research study conducted in higher education institutions among students majoring in business and administration in Hungary. The aim of the research was to investigate the motivational factors of students learning languages for business purposes and set up a multivariate statistical model of language learning motivation, and examine the model's main components by different social background variables. The research question sought to answer the question of whether the motivation of students of business learning LSP could be characterized through some main components. The principal components of LSP have been created, and the correlations with social background variables have been explored. The main principal components of learning a language for business purposes were "professional future", "abroad", "performance", and "external". In the online voluntary questionnaire, 28 questions were asked about students’ motivational attitudes. 449 students have filled in the questionnaire. Descriptive statistical calculations were performed, then the difference between the highest and lowest mean was analyzed by one-sample t-test. The assessment of LSP learning was examined by one-way analysis of variance and Tukey post-hoc test among students of parents with different qualifications. The correlations between student motivation statements and various social background variables and other variables related to LSP learning motivation (gender, place of residence, mother’s education, father’s education, family financial situation, etc.) have also been examined. The attitudes related to motivation were seperated by principal component analysis, and then the different language learning motivation between socio-economic variables and other variables using principal component values were examined using an independent two-sample t-test. The descriptive statistical analysis of language learning motivation revealed that students learn LSP because this knowledge will come in handy in the future. It can be concluded that students consider learning the language for business purposes to be essential and see its future benefits. Therefore, LSP teaching has an important role and place in higher education. The results verify the second linguistic motivational self-system where the ideal linguistic self embraces the ideas and desires that the foreign language learner wants to achieve in the future. One such desire is to recognize that students will need technical language skills in the future, and it is a powerful motivation for them to learn a language.

Keywords: higher education, language learning motivation, LSP, statistical analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 66