Search results for: selection of risk measures

Authors: Saniye Çeşmecioğlu

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The importance of project sustainability and success has become increasingly significant due to the proliferation of external environmental factors that have decreased project resistance in contemporary times. The primary approach to forestall the failure of projects is to ensure their long-term viability through the strategic selection of projects as creating judicious project selection framework within the organization. Decision-makers require precise decision contexts (models) that conform to the company's business objectives and sustainability expectations during the project selection process. The establishment of a rational model for project selection enables organizations to create a distinctive and objective framework for the selection process. Additionally, for the optimal implementation of this decision-making model, it is crucial to establish a Project Management Office (PMO) team and Project Steering Committee within the organizational structure to oversee the framework. These teams enable updating project selection criteria and weights in response to changing conditions, ensuring alignment with the company's business goals, and facilitating the selection of potentially viable projects. This paper presents a multi-criteria decision model for selecting project sustainability and project success criteria that ensures timely project completion and retention. The model was developed using MACBETH (Measuring Attractiveness by a Categorical Based Evaluation Technique) and was based on broadcaster companies’ expectations. The ultimate results of this study provide a model that endorses the process of selecting the appropriate project objectively by utilizing project selection and sustainability criteria along with their respective weights for organizations. Additionally, the study offers suggestions that may ascertain helpful in future endeavors.

Keywords: project portfolio management, project selection, multi-criteria decision making, project sustainability and success criteria, MACBETH

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Authors: Sabina Garayeva

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To determine the significant risk factors for intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR), we carried out a thorough study of the social status of the parents of children with IUGR. We observed 315 mothers who gave birth to children with (IUGR), of which 172 mothers with asymmetric type and 143 mothers with symmetric type of IUGR. Through a detailed survey was gathered detailed information about education of parents. The results show that the majority of mothers with IUGR had secondary education (44,8 ± 2,8%), and fathers - higher education (35,2 ± 2,7%). Whereas in the control group, the largest number of parents had higher education (mother 35,3 ± 4,4%, fathers 42,9 ± 4,5%). Number of mothers with secondary education with IUGR was significantly (p1 <0,01; χ2 = 22,67) differs from the number of mothers with physiological pregnancy with the same level of education. Meanwhile, in the group with a symmetrical embodiment of IUGR mothers with secondary formation of significantly greater 53,1 ± 4,2%, than the asymmetric embodiment IUGR 37,8 ± 3,7% (p2 <0,05; χ2 = 8 06). Among fathers with secondary education significant difference was noted in the symmetric version of IUGR 37,8 ± 4,1% more than in the control group (p1 <0,05), and among parents of children with asymmetric IUGR option prevailed fathers with higher education - 37 2 ± 3,7%. Thus, our results revealed a low educational level of the mother as a risk factor for IUGR, which further help to develop preventive and therapeutic measures to eliminate the severity of its consequences. As seen from the data presented, mothers of children with asymmetric IUGR had a school education and fathers - higher education, while in the symmetric type of both parents had secondary education. It is found that frequency of children, born with IUGR, of mothers - housewives and fathers, engage in physical labor, was high. Thus, the analysis conducted by the social status of the parents with IUGR revealed a low level of education and unemployed mothers as risk factors for this disease, which in the future will help to develop preventive and therapeutic measures to eliminate the severity of its.

Keywords: intrauterine growth restriction, education of mothers, education influence, IUGR

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Authors: C. L. Wu, W. W. Tseng

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From the National Health Insurance (NHI) system was introduced in Taiwan in 2000, there have been some problems in transformed small-scale hospitals, such as mobility of patients, shortage of nursing staff, medical pipelines breaking fire compartments and insufficient fire protection systems. Due to shrinking of the funding scale and the aging society, fire safety in small-scale hospitals has recently given cause for concern. The aim of this study is to determine fire risk index for small-scale hospital through a systematic approach The selection of fire safety mitigation methods can be regarded as a multi-attribute decision making process which must be guaranteed by expert groups. First of all, identify and select safety related factors and identify evaluation criteria through literature reviews and experts group. Secondly, application of the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process method is used to ascertain a weighted value which enables rating of the importance each of the selected factors. Overall, Sprinkler type and Compartmentation are the most crucial indices in mitigating fire, that is to say, structural approach play an important role to decrease losses in fire events.

Keywords: Fuzzy Delphi Method, fuzzy analytic hierarchy, process risk assessment, fire events

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Authors: Abdelkrim Alfalah, Lahcen Ouarbya, John Howroyd

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This paper investigates and compares the performance of four existing distances and similarity measures between partitions. The partition measures considered are Rand Index (RI), Adjusted Rand Index (ARI), Variation of Information (VI), and Normalised Variation of Information (NVI). This work investigates the ability of these partition measures to capture three predefined intuitions: the variation within randomly generated partitions, the sensitivity to small perturbations, and finally the independence from the dataset scale. It has been shown that the Adjusted Rand Index performed well overall, with regards to these three intuitions.

Keywords: clustering, comparing partitions, similarity measure, partition distance, partition metric, similarity between partitions, clustering comparison.

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Authors: Mehdi Assefi, Keihan Hataminezhad

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One of the efficient architectures for exploring the resources in wireless ad-hoc networks is contact-based architecture. In this architecture, each node assigns a unique zone for itself and each node keeps all information from inside the zone, as well as some from outside the zone, which is called contact. Reducing the overlap between different zones of a node and its contacts increases its performance, therefore Edge Method (EM) is designed for this purpose. Contacts selected by EM do not have any overlap with their sources, but for choosing the contact a vast amount of information must be transmitted. In this article, we will offer a new protocol for contact selection, which is called PEM. The objective would be reducing the volume of transmitted information, using Non-Uniform Dissemination Probabilistic Protocols. Consumed energy for contact selection is a function of the size of transmitted information between nodes. Therefore, by reducing the content of contact selection message using the PEM will decrease the consumed energy. For evaluation of the PEM we applied the simulation method. Results indicated that PEM consumes less energy compared to EM, and by increasing the number of nodes (level of nodes), performance of PEM will improve in comparison with EM.

Keywords: wireless ad-hoc networks, contact selection, method for CARD, energy-efficient

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Authors: Brian W. Mandikiana

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Homestead food production has the potential to alleviate hunger, improve health and nutrition for children and adults. This article examines the relationship between self-reported hunger and homestead food production using the ordered probit model. A sample of households participating in homestead food production was drawn from the first wave of the South African National Income Dynamics Survey, a nationally representative cross-section. The sample selection problem was corrected using an ordered probit model with sample selection approach. The findings show that homestead food production exerts a positive and significant impact on children and adults’ ability to cope with hunger and malnutrition. Yet, on the contrary, potential gains of homestead food production are threatened by shocks such as crop failure.

Keywords: agriculture, hunger, nutrition, sample selection

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Authors: Samah Benmerbi, Kamal Amroun, Abdelkamel Tari

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The increasing number of Web service (WS)providers throughout the globe, have produced numerous Web services providing the same or similar functionality. Therefore, there is a need of tools developing the best answer of queries by selecting and composing services with total transparency. This paper reviews various QoS based Web service selection mechanisms and architectures which facilitate qualitatively optimal selection, in other fact Web service composition is required when a request cannot be fulfilled by a single web service. In such cases, it is preferable to integrate existing web services to satisfy user’s request. We introduce an automatic Web service composition method based on hypergraph decomposition using hypertree decomposition method. The problem of selection and the composition of the web services is transformed into a resolution in a hypertree by exploring the relations of dependency between web services to get composite web service via employing an execution order of WS satisfying global request.

Keywords: web service, web service selection, web service composition, QoS, hypergraph decomposition, BE hypergraph decomposition, hypertree resolution

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Authors: Anastasios Manos, Despina Elisabeth Filippidou

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Introduction: Historical buildings are an inte-gral part of the cultural heritage of every place, and beyond the obvious need for protection against risks, they have specific requirements regarding the handling of hazards and disasters such as fire, floods, earthquakes, etc. Ensuring high levels of protection and safety for these buildings is impera-tive for two distinct but interconnected reasons: a) they themselves constitute cultural heritage, and b) they are often used as museums/cultural spaces, necessitating the protection of both human life (vis-itors and workers) and the cultural treasures they house. However, these buildings present serious constraints in implementing the necessary measures to protect them from destruction due to their unique architecture, construction methods, and/or the structural materials used in the past, which have created an existing condition that is sometimes challenging to reshape and operate within the framework of modern regulations and protection measures. One of the most devastating risks that threaten historical buildings is fire. Catastrophic fires demonstrate the need for timely evaluation of fire safety measures in historical buildings. Recog-nizing the criticality of protecting historical build-ings from the risk of fire, the Confederation of Fire Protection Associations in Europe (CFPA E) issued specific guidelines in 2013 (CFPA-E Guideline No 30:2013 F) for the fire protection of historical buildings at the European level. However, until now, few actions have been implemented towards leveraging modern technologies in the field of con-struction and maintenance of buildings, such as Building Information Modeling (BIM) and the Inter-net of Things (IoT), for the protection of historical buildings from risks like fires, floods, etc. The pro-ject BIM4Cult has bee developed in order to fill this gap. It is a tool for timely assessing and monitoring of the fire safety level of historical buildings using BIM and IoT technologies in an integrated manner. The tool serves as a decision support expert system for improving the fire safety of historical buildings by continuously monitoring, controlling and as-sessing critical risk factors for fire.

Keywords: Iot, fire, BIM, expert system

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Authors: Sameen Masood, Muhammad Ali Jibran

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The frequent flood history in Pakistan has pronounced the need for disaster risk management. Various policies are formulated and steps are being taken by the government in order to cope with the flood effects. However, a much promising pro-active approach that is globally acknowledged is educating the masses regarding living with risk and uncertainty. Unfortunately, majority of the flood victims in Pakistan are poor and illiterate which also transpires as a significant cause of their distress. An illiterate population is not risk averse or equipped intellectually regarding how to prepare and protect against natural disasters. The current research utilizes a cross-disciplinary approach where the role of education (both formal and informal) and indigenous knowledge is explored with reference to disaster preparedness. The data was collected from the flood prone rural areas of Punjab. In the absence of disaster curriculum taught in formal schools, informal education disseminated by NGOs and relief and rehabilitation agencies was the only education given to the flood victims. However the educational attainment of flood victims highly correlated with their awareness regarding flood management and disaster preparedness. Moreover, lessons learned from past flood experience generated indigenous knowledge on the basis of which flood victims prepared themselves for any uncertainty. If the future policy regarding disaster preparation integrates indigenous knowledge and then delivers education on the basis of that, it is anticipated that the flood devastations can be much reduced. Education can play a vital role in amplifying perception of risk and taking precautionary measures for disaster. The findings of the current research will provide practical strategies where disaster preparedness through education has not yet been applied.

Keywords: education, disaster preparedness, illiterate population, risk management

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Authors: Ashenafi Sileshi Etefa, Bezawit Worku Yenealem

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Micro-insurance is a relatively new concept that is just being introduced in Ethiopia. For an agrarian economy dominated by small holder farming and vulnerable to natural disasters, mainly drought, the need for an Index-Based Micro Insurance (IBMI) is crucial. Since IBMI solves moral hazard, adverse selection, and access issues to poor clients, it is preferable over traditional insurance products. IBMI is being piloted in drought prone areas of Ethiopia with the aim of learning and expanding the service across the country. This article analyses the demand of IBMI and the barriers to demand and finds that the demand for IBMI has so far been constrained by lack of awareness, trust issues, costliness, and the level of basis risk; and recommends reducing the basis risk and increasing the role of government and farmer cooperatives.

Keywords: agriculture, index based micro-insurance (IBMI), drought, micro-finance institution (MFI)

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Authors: Syed Sameer Aga, Saniya Nissar

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The Xeroderma pigmentosum group D gene (XPD) plays a key role in nucleotide excision repair (NER) pathway of the damaged DNA. Genetic polymorphisms in the coding region of the XPD gene may alter DNA repair capacity of the protein and hence can modulate the risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) risk. The aim of the study was to determine the genetic association of XPD Lys751Gln polymorphism with the risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) development. 120 CRC patients and 160 normal controls were assessed for genotype frequencies of XPD Lys751Gln polymorphism using PCR-RFLP technique. We observed a significant association (p < 0.05) between the XPD Lys751Gln polymorphism and the risk of developing CRC (p < 0.05). Additionally, Gln/Gln genotype of the XPD gene doubled the risk for the development of CRC [p < 0.05; OR=2.25 95% CI (1.07-4.7)]. Our results suggest that there is a significant association between the XPD Lys751Gln polymorphism and the risk of CRC.

Keywords: colorectal cancer, polymorphism, RFLP, DNA Repair, NER, XPD

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Authors: Yoonsuh Jung

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As DNA microarray data contain relatively small sample size compared to the number of genes, high dimensional models are often employed. In high dimensional models, the selection of tuning parameter (or, penalty parameter) is often one of the crucial parts of the modeling. Cross-validation is one of the most common methods for the tuning parameter selection, which selects a parameter value with the smallest cross-validated score. However, selecting a single value as an "optimal" value for the parameter can be very unstable due to the sampling variation since the sample sizes of microarray data are often small. Our approach is to choose multiple candidates of tuning parameter first, then average the candidates with different weights depending on their performance. The additional step of estimating the weights and averaging the candidates rarely increase the computational cost, while it can considerably improve the traditional cross-validation. We show that the selected value from the suggested methods often lead to stable parameter selection as well as improved detection of significant genetic variables compared to the tradition cross-validation via real data and simulated data sets.

Keywords: cross validation, parameter averaging, parameter selection, regularization parameter search

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Authors: Amit Tribedi

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Genuine Quantumness present in Quantum Systems is the resource for implementing Quantum Information and Computation Protocols which can outperform the classical counterparts. These Quantumness measures encompass non-local ones known as quantum entanglement (QE) and quantum information theoretic (QIT) ones, e.g. Quantum Discord (QD). In this paper, some well-known measures of QE and QD in some wheel-like frustrated molecular magnetic systems have been studied. One of the systems has already been synthesized using coordination chemistry, and the other is hypothetical, where the dominant interaction is the spin-spin exchange interaction. Exact analytical methods and exact numerical diagonalization methods have been used. Some counter-intuitive non-trivial features, like non-monotonicity of quantum correlations with temperature, persistence of multipartite entanglement over bipartite ones etc. indicated by the behaviour of the correlations and the QIT measures have been found. The measures, being operational ones, can be used to realize the resource of Quantumness in experiments.

Keywords: 0D Magnets, discord, entanglement, frustration

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Authors: Vincent Liu

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Machine learning algorithms (ML) can achieve high accuracy in predicting outcomes compared to classical models. Metaheuristic, nature-inspired algorithms can enhance traditional ML algorithms by optimizing them such as by performing feature selection. We compare ten ML algorithms to predict 30-day hospital readmission rates for diabetes patients in the US using a dataset from UCI Machine Learning Repository with feature selection performed by Greywolf nature-inspired algorithm. The baseline accuracy for the initial random forest model was 65%. After performing feature engineering, SMOTE for class balancing, and Greywolf optimization, the machine learning algorithms showed better metrics, including F1 scores, accuracy, and confusion matrix with improvements ranging in 10%-30%, and a best model of XGBoost with an accuracy of 95%. Applying machine learning this way can improve patient outcomes as unnecessary rehospitalizations can be prevented by focusing on patients that are at a higher risk of readmission.

Keywords: diabetes, machine learning, 30-day readmission, metaheuristic

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Authors: Kwabena Asare, Ezekiel N. N. Nortey, Felix O. Mettle

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Modelling of extreme events has always been of interest in fields such as hydrology and meteorology. However, after the recent global financial crises, appropriate models for modelling of such rare events leading to these crises have become quite essential in the finance and risk management fields. This paper models the extreme values of the Ghana Stock Exchange All-Shares indices (2000-2010) by applying the Extreme Value Theory to fit a model to the tails of the daily stock returns data. A conditional approach of the EVT was preferred and hence an ARMA-GARCH model was fitted to the data to correct for the effects of autocorrelation and conditional heteroscedastic terms present in the returns series, before EVT method was applied. The Peak Over Threshold (POT) approach of the EVT, which fits a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) model to excesses above a certain selected threshold, was employed. Maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters were obtained and the model’s goodness of fit was assessed graphically using Q-Q, P-P and density plots. The findings indicate that the GPD provides an adequate fit to the data of excesses. The size of the extreme daily Ghanaian stock market movements were then computed using the Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) risk measures at some high quantiles, based on the fitted GPD model.

Keywords: extreme value theory, expected shortfall, generalized pareto distribution, peak over threshold, value at risk

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Authors: Ali Abdullah Albezaghi

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This article aims to introduce a conceptual framework that can facilitate investigations concerning the role of risk management practices in the relationship between construction risks and the construction project's performance. This article is structured based on the extant literature; it reviews theoretical perspectives, highlights the gaps, and illustrates the significance of developing a framework of suggested relationships. Despite growing interest in the role of risks in construction project performance, previous studies have paid little attention to investigating the moderating role of risk management practices on the risk-performance link. This has left researchers and construction project managers with minimal information to explain the conditions under which risk management practices can reduce the impact of project-related risks and improve performance. In this context, this article suggests a viable research model with propositions that assess risk-performance relationships and discusses the potential moderating effects on the domain relationship. This paper adds to the risk management literature by focusing on risk variables that directly impact performance. Further, it also considers the moderating role of risk management practices in such relationships.

Keywords: risk management practices, external risks, internal risks, project risks, project performance

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Authors: Mine Koyaz, M. Cem Altun

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Selection of the materials satisfying the expected performances is significantly important for any design. Today, with the constantly evolving and developing technologies, the material options are so wide that the necessity of the use of some support tools in the selection process is arising. Therefore, as a sub process of building element design, a systematic material selection tool is developed, that defines four main steps of the material selection; definition, research, comparison and decision. The main purpose of the tool is being an educational instrument that would show a methodic way of material selection in architectural detailing for the use of architecture students. The tool predefines the possible uses of various material databases and other sources of information on material properties. Hence, it is to be used as a guidance for designers, especially with a limited material knowledge and experience. The material selection tool not only embraces technical properties of materials related with building elements’ functional requirements, but also its sensual properties related with the identity of design and its environmental impacts with respect to the sustainability of the design. The method followed in the development of the tool has two main sections; first the examination and application of the existing methods and second the development of trial versions and their applications. Within the scope of the existing methods; design support tools, methodic approaches for the building element design and material selection process, material properties, material databases, methodic approaches for the decision making process are examined. The existing methods are applied by architecture students and newly graduate architects through different design problems. With respect to the results of these applications, strong and weak sides of the existing material selection tools are presented. A main flow chart of the material selection tool has been developed with the objective to apply the strong aspects of the existing methods and develop their weak sides. Through different stages, a different aspect of the material selection process is investigated and the tool took its final form. Systematic material selection tool, within the building element design process, guides the users with a minimum background information, to practically and accurately determine the ideal material that is to be chosen, satisfying the needs of their design. The tool has a flexible structure that answers different needs of different designs and designers. The trial version issued in this paper shows one of the paths that could be followed and illustrates its application over a design problem.

Keywords: architectural education, building element design, material selection tool, systematic approach

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Authors: Tejasvi Parupudi, Mochen Li, Lakshya Mittal, Ignacio G. Camarillo, Raji Sundararajan

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With breast cancer becoming a global pandemic, it is very important to assess a woman’s risk profile accurately in a timely manner. Providing an estimate of the risk of developing breast cancer to a woman gives her an opportunity to consider options to decrease this risk. Women at low risk may be suggested yearly screenings whereas women with a high risk of developing breast cancer would be candidates for aggressive surveillance. Fortunately, there is a set of risk factors that are used to predict the probability of a woman being diagnosed with breast cancer in the future. Studying risk factors and understanding how they correlate to cancer is important for early diagnosis, prevention and reducing mortality rates. The effect of crucial risk factors among black and white women was compared in this study. The various risk factors analyzed include breast density, age, cancer in a first-degree relative, menopausal status, body mass index (BMI) and prior breast cancer diagnosis, etc. Breast density, age at first full-term birth and BMI were utilized in this study as important risk factors for the comparison of incidence rates between women of black and white races in the USA. Understanding the differences could lead to the development of solutions to reduce disparity in mortality rates among black women by improving overall access to care.

Keywords: big data, breast cancer, risk factors, incidence rates, mortality, race

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Authors: Wencong Lu, Abdul Latif, Raza Ullah, Subhan Ullah

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Agricultural production is subject to risk and the attitudes of producers toward risk, in turn, may be affected by certain socioeconomic characteristics of producers. Although, it is important to assess the risk attitude of farmers and their perception towards different calamitous risk sources for better understanding of their risk management adoption decisions, to the best of our knowledge no studies have been carried out to analyze the risk attitude and risk perceptions in the context of tobacco production in Pakistan. Therefore the study in hand is conducted with an attempt to overcome the gap in existing literature by analyzing different catastrophic risk sources faced by tobacco growers, their attitude towards risk and the effect of socioeconomic and demographic characteristics, farmers’ participation in contract farming and off-farm diversification on their risk attitude and risk perception. Around 78% of Pakistan’s entire tobacco crop and nearly all of the country’s Flue-Cured Virginia (FCV) tobacco is produced in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) province alone. The yield/hectare of tobacco produced in KPK province is 14% higher than the global average and 22 % higher than national average. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province was selected as main study area as nearly all of the country’s Flue-Cured Virginia (FCV) tobacco is produced in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) province alone. Six districts were purposely selected based on their contribution in overall production for the last five years which accounts for more than 94.84% of the tobacco production in KPK province. Specific objectives taken into considerations for this study are the risk attitude of the farmers for growing FCV tobacco crop, farmers’ risk perception for different risk sources related to tobacco production (as far as the incidence and severity of each risk source is concerned) and the effect of socioeconomic characteristics, contract farming participation and off-farm diversification (income) on the risk attitude and risk perception of FCV tobacco growers.

Keywords: risk attitude, risk perception, contract farming, off-farm diversification, probit model

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Authors: Tayyaba Hussain, Sobia Jangsher, Saqib Ali, Saqib Ejaz

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Unmanned Aerial vehicles (UAV’s) have gained great popularity due to their remoteness, ease of deployment and high maneuverability in different applications like real-time surveillance, image capturing, weather atmospheric studies, disaster site monitoring and mapping. These applications can involve a real-time communication with the ground station. However, altitude and mobility possess a few challenges for the communication. UAV’s at high altitude usually require more transmit power. One possible solution can be with the use of multi hops (UAV’s acting as relays) and exploiting the mobility pattern of the UAV’s. In this paper, we studied a relay (UAV’s acting as relays) selection for a reliable transmission to a destination UAV. We exploit the mobility information of the UAV’s to propose a Mobility-Aware Relay Selection (MARS) algorithm with the objective of giving improved data rates. The results are compared with Non Mobility-Aware relay selection scheme and optimal values. Numerical results show that our proposed MARS algorithm gives 6% better achievable data rates for the mobile UAV’s as compared with Non MobilityAware relay selection scheme. On average a decrease of 20.2% in data rate is achieved with MARS as compared with SDP solver in Yalmip.

Keywords: mobility aware, relay selection, time division multiple acess, unmanned aerial vehicle

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Authors: Thitaporn Thoopputra, Tipaporn Pongmesa, Shuchuen Li

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Aims: To evaluate the application of non-invasive diabetes risk assessment tool in community pharmacy setting. Methods: Thai diabetes risk score was applied to assess individuals at risk of developing type 2 diabetes. Interactive computer-based risk screening (IT) and paper-based risk screening (PT) tools were applied. Participants aged over 25 years with no known diabetes were recruited in six participating pharmacies. Results: A total of 187 clients, mean aged (+SD) was 48.6 (+10.9) years. 35% were at high risk. The mean value of willingness-to-pay for the service fee in IT group was significantly higher than PT group (p=0.013). No significant difference observed for the satisfaction between groups. Conclusions: Non-invasive risk assessment tool, whether paper-based or computerized-based can be applied in community pharmacy to support the enhancing role of pharmacists in chronic disease management. Long term follow up is needed to determine the impact of its application in clinical, humanistic and economic outcomes.

Keywords: community pharmacy, intervention, prevention, risk assessment, type 2 diabetes

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Authors: Subhash Chandra Sharma, Mohammad Soleimani

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Selection of the correct lubricant for the top of rail application is a complex process. In this paper, the selection of the proper lubricant for a Top-Of-Rail (TOR) lubrication system based on graph theory and matrix approach has been developed. Attributes influencing the selection process and their influence on each other has been represented through a digraph and an equivalent matrix. A matrix function which is called the Permanent Function is derived. By substituting the level of inherent contribution of the influencing parameters and their influence on each other qualitatively, a criterion called Suitability Index is derived. Based on these indices, lubricants can be ranked for their suitability. The proposed model can be useful for maintenance engineers in selecting the best lubricant for a TOR application. The proposed methodology is illustrated step–by-step through an example.

Keywords: lubricant selection, top of rail lubrication, graph-theory, Ranking of lubricants

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Authors: Santosh Sharma

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Background: Drug abuse, needle sharing, and risky sexual behaviour are often compounded to increase the risk of HIV transmission. Injecting Drug Users are at the duel risk of needle sharing and risky sexual Behaviour, becoming more vulnerable to STI and HIV. Thus, studying the interface of injecting drug use and risky sexual behaviour is important to curb the pace of HIV epidemic among IDUs. The aim of this study is to determine the factor associated with HIV among injecting drug users in three states of India. Materials and methods: This paper analyzes covariates of multiplicity of risk behavior among injecting drug users. Findings are based on data from Integrated Behavioral and Biological Assessment (IBBA) round 2, 2010. IBBA collects the information of IDUs from the six districts. IDUs were selected on the criteria of those who were 18 years or older, who injected addictive substances/drugs for non-medical purposes at least once in past six month. A total of 1,979 in round 2 were interviewed in the IBBA. The study employs quantitative techniques using standard statistical tools to achieve the above objectives. All results presented in this paper are unweighted univariate measures. Results: Among IDUs, average duration of injecting drugs is 5.2 years. Mean duration between first drug use to first injecting drugs among younger IDUs, belongs to 18-24 years is 2.6 years Needle cleaning practices is common with above two-fifths reporting its every time cleaning. Needle sharing is quite prevalent especially among younger IDUs. Further, IDUs practicing needle sharing exhibit pervasive multi-partner behavior. Condom use with commercial partners is almost 81 %, whereas with intimate partner it is 39 %. Coexistence of needle sharing and unprotected sex enhances STI prevalence (6.8 %), which is further pronounced among divorced/separated/widowed (9.4 %). Conclusion: Working towards risk reduction for IDUs must deal with multiplicity of risk. Interventions should deal with covariates of risk, addressing youth, and risky sexual behavior.

Keywords: IDUs, HIV, STI, behaviour

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Authors: Heba Abdelmotaal, Magdy Abdel-Kader

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Purpose: This study explores whether a firm’s effective political risk management is preventing real and accrual earnings management . Design/methodology/approach: Based on a sample of 130 firms operating in Egypt during the period 2008-2013, two hypotheses are tested using the panel data regression models. Findings: The empirical findings indicate a significant relation between real and accrual earnings management and political risk. Originality/value: This paper provides a statistically evidence on the effects of the political risk management failure on the mangers’ engagement in the real and accrual earnings management practices, and its impact on the firm’s performance.

Keywords: political risk, risk management failure, real activities manipulation, accrual earnings management

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Authors: Xiongxiong You, Zhanwen Niu

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Choosing an appropriate surrogate model plays an important role in surrogates-assisted evolutionary algorithms (SAEAs) since there are many types and different kernel functions in the surrogate model. In this paper, an adaptive selection of the best suitable surrogate model method is proposed to solve different kinds of expensive optimization problems. Firstly, according to the prediction residual error sum of square (PRESS) and different model selection strategies, the excellent individual surrogate models are integrated into multiple ensemble models in each generation. Then, based on the minimum root of mean square error (RMSE), the best suitable surrogate model is selected dynamically. Secondly, two methods with dynamic number of models and selection strategies are designed, which are used to show the influence of the number of individual models and selection strategy. Finally, some compared studies are made to deal with several commonly used benchmark problems, as well as a rotor system optimization problem. The results demonstrate the accuracy and robustness of the proposed method.

Keywords: adaptive selection, expensive optimization, rotor system, surrogates assisted evolutionary algorithms

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Authors: Semion Kertzman, Pinhas Dannon

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Impulsive behaviour and the underlying brain processes are hypothesized to be central in the development and maintenance of pathological gambling. Inhibition ability can be differentially impaired in pathological gamblers (PGs). Aims: This study aimed to compare the ability of eight widely used inhibition measures to discriminate between PGs and healthy controls (HCs). Methods: PGs (N=51) and demographically matched HCs (N=51) performed cognitive inhibition (the Stroop), motor inhibition (the Go/NoGo) and reflective inhibition (the Matching Familiar Figures (MFFT)) tasks. Results: An augmented total interference response time in the Stroop task (η² =0.054), a large number of commission errors (η² =0.053) in the Go/NoGo task, and the total number of errors in the MFFT (η² =0.05) can discriminate PGs from HCs. Other measures are unable to differentiate between PGs and HCs. No significant correlations were observed between inhibition measures. Conclusion: Inhibition measures varied in the ability to discriminate PGs from HCs. Most inhibition measures were not relevant to gambling behaviour. PGs do not express rash, impulsive behaviour, such as quickly choosing an answer without thinking. In contrast, in PGs, inhibition impairment was related to slow-inaccurate performance.

Keywords: pathological gambling, impulsivity, neurocognition, addiction

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Authors: Anne Mastamet-Mason, Oluwatosin Onakoya, Karla Tissiman

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The COVID-19 pandemic that ravaged the world in 2020 brought about the need for handmade fabric face masks in South Africa and beyond. These masks showcased individuality and environmental responsibility and effectively aided our battle against the virus. These practical masks held significant meaning, representing human creativity, resilience, and commitment to sustainability in adversity. This paper examines how aesthetics, sustainability, and safety were achieved in the Handmade Fabric Face Masks. It analyses how their integration signified human agility and resilience to the pandemic while promoting dignity and environmental welfare. The research conducted a qualitative analysis to choose handmade fabric face masks and assess their aesthetic, sustainable, and safety features. The study involved interviewing a group of mask designers and users who evaluated the masks' efficacy in providing protection, aesthetics, and environmental sustainability. Although the designers demonstrated a high level of knowledge in the design aspects, the results indicated a need for more information regarding the functional safety measures and some environmental factors in mask selection and production. The mask analysis also revealed that the masks available in the market combined aesthetics and environmental protection but had limited safety measures. Despite the lack of balance of aesthetics, sustainability, and safety among the designers and the users of hand-fabric masks, functional aspects of fabrics and sustainability literacy are essential

Keywords: sustainable fashion, fabric mask, aesthetics, safety measures

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Authors: Prandesha Govender, Chris Cloete

Abstract:

Purpose: The objective of the paper is to develop a tool for the evaluation of the financial risk of a shopping center. Methodology: Important factors that indicate the success of a shopping center were identified from the available literature. Weights were allocated to these factors and a risk rating was calculated for 505 shopping centers in the largest province in South Africa by taking the factor scores, factor weights, and category weights into account. The ratings for ten randomly selected shopping centers were correlated with consumer feedback and standardized against the ECAI (External Credit Assessment Institutions) data for the same centers. The ratings were also mapped to corporates with the same risk rating to provide a better intuitive assessment of the meaning of the inherent risk of each center. Results: The proposed risk tool shows a strong linear correlation with consumer views and can be compared to expert opinions, such as that of fund managers and REITs. Interpretation of the tool was also illustrated by correlating the risk rating of selected shopping centers to the risk rating of reputable and established entities. Conclusions: The proposed Shopping Centre Risk Tool, used in conjunction with financial inputs from the relevant center, should prove useful to an investor when the desirability of investment in or expansion, renovation, or purchase of a shopping center is being considered.

Keywords: risk, shopping centres, risk modelling, investment, rating tool, rating scale

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Authors: Jihan Abdulazeez Ahmed, Adnan Mohsin Abdulazeez Brifcani

Abstract:

This paper suggests a new internal architecture of holon based on feature selection model using the combination of Bees Algorithm (BA) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN). BA is used to generate features while ANN is used as a classifier to evaluate the produced features. Proposed system is applied on the Wine data set, the statistical result proves that the proposed system is effective and has the ability to choose informative features with high accuracy.

Keywords: artificial neural network, bees algorithm, feature selection, Holon

Procedia PDF Downloads 430

Authors: Synthia A. Sari

Abstract:

The transparent nomination and selection process is the first step to obtaining qualified members of board. It is believed as the representative (agent) of the owners, members of the board must consist of competent and professional people. However, the development of transparent and ideal nomination and selection process in Indonesian State-owned enterprises (SOEs) has been based on relatively little research. Considering the relative importance attached by boards to conduct their roles in their principal’s interest in a variety of governance tasks in state-owned enterprises, the primary aim of this paper is to shed light on the extent of nomination and selection process impact performance of the board in implementing good corporate governance in Indonesian SOEs. The exploratory nature of this study led to the adoption of a qualitative research methodology which uses semi-structured interviews and publically available documents to collect a range of data pertaining board nomination and selection and the work of boards. Interviews were conducted with four informants from three Indonesian SOEs and Ministry of SOEs. Findings in this study demonstrate unclear job description and expectations board members as a result of unclear functions of the board in Indonesian SOEs make transparent and accountable nomination and selection process hard to conduct. This situation is vulnerable to the influences from political interest and that even the process itself can degenerate into situations of political interference. In the end, it leads to choosing the wrong person for membership of the board. This study makes a significant contribution to several fields; the human resource management, corporate governance, and Southeast studies by addressing the basic research gaps of board selection process issues in Indonesian SOEs. The gap is addressed by providing a more coherent framework for effective nomination and selection system which reflects more clearly the real experiences of those actually involved at board level.

Keywords: board selection and nomination process, Indonesian stated-owned enterprises, good corporate governance, political influence

Procedia PDF Downloads 230