Search results for: risk modelling

Authors: Marcus Bellett-Travers

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Different modelling approaches have been used to determine or predict yield of crops in different geographies. Central to the methodologies are the presumption that it is the absolute yield of the crop in a given location that is of the highest priority to those requiring information on crop productivity. Most individuals, companies and organisations within the agri-food sector need to be able to balance the supply of crops with the demand for them. Different modelling approaches have been used to determine and predict crop yield. The growing need to ensure certainty of supply and stability of prices requires an approach that describes the risk in producing a crop. A review of current methodologies to evaluate the risk to food production from changes in the weather and climate is presented.

Keywords: crop production, risk, climate, modelling

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Authors: Mohammad Ghavami, Reza S. Dilmaghani

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This paper presents an adaptive framework for modelling financial markets using equity risk premiums, risk free rates and volatilities. The recorded economic factors are initially used to train four adaptive filters for a certain limited period of time in the past. Once the systems are trained, the adjusted coefficients are used for modelling and prediction of an important financial market index. Two different approaches based on least mean squares (LMS) and recursive least squares (RLS) algorithms are investigated. Performance analysis of each method in terms of the mean squared error (MSE) is presented and the results are discussed. Computer simulations carried out using recorded data show MSEs of 4% and 3.4% for the next month prediction using LMS and RLS adaptive algorithms, respectively. In terms of twelve months prediction, RLS method shows a better tendency estimation compared to the LMS algorithm.

Keywords: adaptive methods, LSE, MSE, prediction of financial Markets

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Authors: Ya-Fen Lee, Yun-Yao Chi

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The study aims to explore the relationship between risk perceptions of rockfall and revisit intention using a Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) analysis. A total of 573 valid questionnaires are collected from travelers to Taroko National Park, Taiwan. The findings show the majority of travellers have the medium perception of rockfall risk, and are willing to revisit the Taroko National Park. The revisit intention to Taroko National Park is influenced by hazardous preferences, willingness-to-pay, obstruction and attraction. The risk perception has an indirect effect on revisit intention through influencing willingness-to-pay. The study results can be a reference for mitigation the rockfall disaster.

Keywords: risk perception, rockfall, revisit intention, structural equation modelling

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Authors: Amirhossein Karamoozian, Desheng Wu, Behzad Abbasnejad

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Building information modelling (BIM) is a new technology to enhance the efficiency of project management in the construction industry. In addition to the potential benefits of this useful technology, there are various risks and obstacles to applying it in construction projects. In this study, a decision making approach is presented for risk assessment in BIM adoption in construction projects. Various risk factors of exerting BIM during different phases of the project lifecycle are identified with the help of Delphi method, experts’ opinions and related literature. Afterward, Shannon’s entropy and Fuzzy TOPSIS (Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Situation) are applied to derive priorities of the identified risk factors. Results indicated that lack of knowledge between professional engineers about workflows in BIM and conflict of opinions between different stakeholders are the risk factors with the highest priority.

Keywords: risk, BIM, fuzzy TOPSIS, construction projects

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Authors: Kwabena Asare, Ezekiel N. N. Nortey, Felix O. Mettle

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Modelling of extreme events has always been of interest in fields such as hydrology and meteorology. However, after the recent global financial crises, appropriate models for modelling of such rare events leading to these crises have become quite essential in the finance and risk management fields. This paper models the extreme values of the Ghana Stock Exchange All-Shares indices (2000-2010) by applying the Extreme Value Theory to fit a model to the tails of the daily stock returns data. A conditional approach of the EVT was preferred and hence an ARMA-GARCH model was fitted to the data to correct for the effects of autocorrelation and conditional heteroscedastic terms present in the returns series, before EVT method was applied. The Peak Over Threshold (POT) approach of the EVT, which fits a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) model to excesses above a certain selected threshold, was employed. Maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters were obtained and the model’s goodness of fit was assessed graphically using Q-Q, P-P and density plots. The findings indicate that the GPD provides an adequate fit to the data of excesses. The size of the extreme daily Ghanaian stock market movements were then computed using the Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) risk measures at some high quantiles, based on the fitted GPD model.

Keywords: extreme value theory, expected shortfall, generalized pareto distribution, peak over threshold, value at risk

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Authors: Nina V. Zaitseva, Pavel Z. Shur, Nina G. Atiskova

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Nowadays harmonization of sanitary and hygienic standards of environmental quality with international standards is crucial part of integration of Russia into the international community. Harmonization of Russian and international ambient air quality standards may be realized by risk-based standards development. In this paper approaches to risk-based standards development and examples of these approaches implementation are presented.

Keywords: harmonization, health risk assessment, evolutionary modelling, benchmark level, nickel, manganese

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Authors: Yahya Lavafpour, Steve Sharples

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This study investigated the potential negative impacts of future UK climate change on dwellings. In particular, the risk of overheating was considered for a Passivhaus dwelling in London. The study used dynamic simulation modelling software to investigate the potential use of building geometry to control current and future overheating risks in the dwelling for London climate. Specifically, the focus was on the optimum inclination of a south façade to make use of the building’s shape to self-protect itself. A range of different inclined façades were examined to test their effectiveness in reducing the overheating risk. The research found that implementing a 115° tilted façade could completely eliminate the risk of overheating in current climate, but with some consequence for natural ventilation and daylighting. Future overheating was significantly reduced by the tilted façade. However, geometric considerations could not eradicate completely the risk of overheating particularly by the 2080s. The study also used CFD modelling and sensitivity analysis to investigate the effect of the façade geometry on the wind pressure distributions on and around the building surface. This was done to assess natural ventilation flows for alternative façade inclinations.

Keywords: climate change, tilt façade, thermal comfort, passivhaus, overheating

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Authors: Prandesha Govender, Chris Cloete

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Purpose: The objective of the paper is to develop a tool for the evaluation of the financial risk of a shopping center. Methodology: Important factors that indicate the success of a shopping center were identified from the available literature. Weights were allocated to these factors and a risk rating was calculated for 505 shopping centers in the largest province in South Africa by taking the factor scores, factor weights, and category weights into account. The ratings for ten randomly selected shopping centers were correlated with consumer feedback and standardized against the ECAI (External Credit Assessment Institutions) data for the same centers. The ratings were also mapped to corporates with the same risk rating to provide a better intuitive assessment of the meaning of the inherent risk of each center. Results: The proposed risk tool shows a strong linear correlation with consumer views and can be compared to expert opinions, such as that of fund managers and REITs. Interpretation of the tool was also illustrated by correlating the risk rating of selected shopping centers to the risk rating of reputable and established entities. Conclusions: The proposed Shopping Centre Risk Tool, used in conjunction with financial inputs from the relevant center, should prove useful to an investor when the desirability of investment in or expansion, renovation, or purchase of a shopping center is being considered.

Keywords: risk, shopping centres, risk modelling, investment, rating tool, rating scale

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Authors: Mohammed El-Arbi Khalfallah, Mohamed Lakhdar Hadji

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Managing and controlling risk is a topic research in the world of finance. Before a risky situation, the stakeholders need to do comparison according to the positions and actions, and financial institutions must take measures of a particular market risk and credit. In this work, we study a model of risk measure in finance: Value at Risk (VaR), which is a new tool for measuring an entity's exposure risk. We explain the concept of value at risk, your average, tail, and describe the three methods for computing: Parametric method, Historical method, and numerical method of Monte Carlo. Finally, we briefly describe advantages and disadvantages of the three methods for computing value at risk.

Keywords: average value at risk, conditional value at risk, tail value at risk, value at risk

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Authors: Nidhi Gaur, Padmaja Joshi, Vijay Jain, Rajeev Srivastava

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Web application architecture is important to achieve the desired performance for the application. Performance analysis studies are conducted to evaluate existing or planned systems. Web applications are used by hundreds of thousands of users simultaneously, which sometimes increases the risk of server failure in real time operations. We use Coloured Petri Net (CPN), a very powerful tool for modelling dynamic behaviour of a web application system. CPNs extend the vocabulary of ordinary Petri nets and add features that make them suitable for modelling large systems. The major focus of this work is on server side of web applications. The presented work focuses on modelling restructuring aspects, with major focus on concurrency and architecture, using CPN. It also focuses on bringing out the appropriate architecture for web and database servers given the number of concurrent users.

Keywords: coloured Petri Nets (CPNs), concurrent users, per- formance modelling, web application architecture

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Authors: Jadwiga Królikowska, Andrzej Królikowski, Jarosław Bajer

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The work delineates the threats of maladjustment of the capacity of rain canals, designed and built in the early 20th century, in connection to heavy rainfall, especially in summer. This is the cause of the so called 'urban floods.' It directly relates to fierce raise of paving in the cities. Resolving this problem requires a change in philosophy of draining the rainfall by wider use of retention, infiltration and usage of rainwater. In systemic approach to managing the safety of urban drainage systems the risk, which is directly connected to safety failures, has been accepted as a measure. The risk level defines the probability of occurrence of losses greater than the ones forecast for a given time frame. The procedure of risk modelling, enabling its numeric analysis by using appropriate weights, is a significant issue in this paper.

Keywords: risk management, drainage system, urban areas, urban floods

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Authors: Jadwiga Królikowska, Andrzej Królikowski, Jarosław Bajer

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The work delineates the threats of maladjustment of the capacity of rain canals, designed and built in the early 20th century, in connection to heavy rainfall, especially in summer. This is the cause of the so called 'urban floods.' It directly relates to fierce raise of paving in the cities. Resolving this problem requires a change in philosophy of draining the rainfall by wider use of retention, infiltration and usage of rainwater. In systemic approach to managing the safety of urban drainage systems the risk, which is directly connected to safety failures, has been accepted as a measure. The risk level defines the probability of occurrence of losses grater than the ones forecast for a given time frame. The procedure of risk modelling, enabling its numeric analysis by using appropriate weights, is a significant issue in this paper.

Keywords: drainage system, urban areas, risk measurement, systemic approach

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Authors: Tio Novita Efriani

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Public sector organizations work in a complex and risky environment. Since the beginning of 2000s, the public sector has paid attention to the need for an effective risk management. The Indonesian public sector has also concerned about this issue and in 2008 it enacted the Government Regulation that gives mandate for the implementation of risk management in government organizations. This paper investigates risk management implementation in the Indonesian public sector organizations and the role of transformational leadership and internal audit activities. Data was collected via survey. A total of 202 effective responses (30% response rate) from employees in 34 government ministries were statistically analyzed by using Partial least square structural equation modelling (PLS-SEM) and the software was SmartPLS 3.0. All the constructs were lower order, except for the risk management implementation construct, which was treated as a second-order construct. A two-stage approach was employed in the analysis of the higher order component. The findings revealed that transformational leadership positively influence risk management implementation. The findings also found that the core and legitimate roles of internal audit in risk management positively affect the implementation of risk management. The final finding showed that internal auditing mediates a relationship between transformational leadership and risk management implementation. These results suggest that the implementation of risk management in the Indonesian public sector was significantly supported by internal auditors and leadership. The findings confirm the importance of transformational leadership and internal audit in the public sector risk management strategies.

Keywords: Indonesian public sector, internal audit, risk management, transformational leadership

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Authors: K. Sekulová, M. Šimon

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This article focuses on upper-extremity musculoskeletal disorders risk assessment model at workplace. In this model are used risk factors that are responsible for musculoskeletal system damage. Based on statistic calculations the model is able to define what risk of MSD threatens workers who are under risk factors. The model is also able to say how MSD risk would decrease if these risk factors are eliminated.

Keywords: ergonomics, musculoskeletal disorders, occupational diseases, risk factors

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Authors: Zidane Abderrezzaq

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In contrast to recent successful developments in macro monetary policies, the modelling, measurement and management of systemic financial stability has remained problematical. Indeed, the focus of most effort has been on improving individual, rather than systemic, bank risk management; the Basel II objective has been to bring regulatory bank capital into line with the (sophisticated) banks’ assessment of their own economic capital. Even at the individual bank level there are concerns over appropriate diversification allowances, differing objectives of banks and regulators, the need for a buffer over regulatory minima, and the distinction between expected and unexpected losses (EL and UL). At the systemic level the quite complex and prescriptive content of Basel II raises dangers of ‘endogenous risk’ and procyclicality. Simulations suggest that this latter could be a serious problem. In an extension to the main analysis we study how liquidity effects interact with banking structure to produce a greater chance of systemic breakdown. We finally consider how the risk of contagion might depend on the degree of asymmetry (tiering) inherent in the structure of the banking system. A number of our results have important implications for public policy, which this paper also draws out.

Keywords: systemic stability, financial regulation, credit risk, systemic risk

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Authors: Betty Johanna Garzon Rozo, Jonathan Crook, Fernando Moreira

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Operational risk losses are heavy tailed and are likely to be asymmetric and extremely dependent among business lines/event types. We propose a new methodology to assess, in a multivariate way, the asymmetry and extreme dependence between severity distributions, and to calculate the capital for Operational Risk. This methodology simultaneously uses (i) several parametric distributions and an alternative mix distribution (the Lognormal for the body of losses and the Generalized Pareto Distribution for the tail) via extreme value theory using SAS®, (ii) the multivariate skew t-copula applied for the first time for operational losses and (iii) Bayesian theory to estimate new n-dimensional skew t-copula models via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation. This paper analyses a newly operational loss data set, SAS Global Operational Risk Data [SAS OpRisk], to model operational risk at international financial institutions. All the severity models are constructed in SAS® 9.2. We implement the procedure PROC SEVERITY and PROC NLMIXED. This paper focuses in describing this implementation.

Keywords: operational risk, loss distribution approach, extreme value theory, copulas

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Authors: Conrad Weber

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The modelling of railway noise over large projects areas can be very time consuming in terms of preparing the noise models and calculation time. An open-source GIS program has been utilised to assist with the modelling of operational noise levels for 675km of railway corridor. A range of GIS algorithms were utilised to break up the noise model area into manageable calculation sizes. GIS was utilised to prepare and filter a range of noise modelling inputs, including building files, land uses and ground terrain. A spreadsheet was utilised to manage the accuracy of key input parameters, including train speeds, train types, curve corrections, bridge corrections and engine notch settings. GIS was utilised to present the final noise modelling results. This paper explains the noise modelling process and how the spreadsheet and GIS were utilised to accurately model this massive project efficiently.

Keywords: noise, modeling, GIS, rail

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Authors: Sélima Baccar, Ephraim Clark

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This paper can be considered as a new perspective to analyse credit spreads. A comprehensive empirical analysis of conditional variance of credit spreads indices is performed using various GARCH models. Based on a comparison between traditional and asymmetric GARCH models with alternative functional forms of the conditional density, we intend to identify what macroeconomic and financial factors have driven daily changes in the US Dollar credit spreads in the period from January 2011 through January 2013. The results provide a strong interdependence between credit spreads and the explanatory factors related to the conditions of interest rates, the state of the stock market, the bond market liquidity and the exchange risk. The empirical findings support the use of asymmetric GARCH models. The AGARCH and GJR models outperform the traditional GARCH in credit spreads modelling. We show, also, that the leptokurtic Student-t assumption is better than the Gaussian distribution and improves the quality of the estimates, whatever the rating or maturity.

Keywords: corporate bonds, default risk, credit spreads, asymmetric garch models, student-t distribution

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Authors: Adel A. Ghobbar, Varun Raman

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The Corrective maintenance of components and systems is a problem plaguing almost every industry in the world today. Train operators’ and the maintenance repair and overhaul subsidiary of the Dutch railway company is also facing this problem. A considerable portion of the maintenance activities carried out by the company are unscheduled. This, in turn, severely stresses and stretches the workforce and resources available. One possible solution is to have a robust preventive maintenance plan. The other possible solution is to plan maintenance based on real-time data obtained from sensor-based ‘Health and Usage Monitoring Systems.’ The former has been investigated in this paper. The preventive maintenance model developed for train operator will subsequently be extended, to tackle the unscheduled maintenance problem also affecting the aerospace industry. The extension of the model to the aerospace sector will be dealt with in the second part of the research, and it would, in turn, validate the soundness of the model developed. Thus, there are distinct areas that will be addressed in this paper, including the mathematical modelling of preventive maintenance and optimization based on cost and system availability. The results of this research will help an organization to choose the right maintenance strategy, allowing it to save considerable sums of money as opposed to overspending under the guise of maintaining high asset availability. The concept of delay time modelling was used to address the practical problem of unscheduled maintenance in this paper. The delay time modelling can be used to help with support planning for a given asset. The model was run using MATLAB, and the results are shown that the ideal inspection intervals computed using the extended from a minimal cost perspective were 29 days, and from a minimum downtime, perspective was 14 days. Risk matrix integration was constructed to represent the risk in terms of the probability of a fault leading to breakdown maintenance and its consequences in terms of maintenance cost. Thus, the choice of an optimal inspection interval of 29 days, resulted in a cost of approximately 50 Euros and the corresponding value of b(T) was 0.011. These values ensure that the risk associated with component X being maintained at an inspection interval of 29 days is more than acceptable. Thus, a switch in maintenance frequency from 90 days to 29 days would be optimal from the point of view of cost, downtime and risk.

Keywords: delay time modelling, unscheduled maintenance, reliability, maintainability, availability

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Authors: Yusuf S. Dambatta, Ahmed A. D. Sarhan

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Fused deposition modelling (FDM) is one of the most prominent rapid prototyping (RP) technologies which is being used to efficiently fabricate CAD 3D geometric models. However, the process is coupled with many drawbacks, of which the surface quality of the manufactured RP parts is among. Hence, studies relating to improving the surface roughness have been a key issue in the field of RP research. In this work, a technique of modelling the surface roughness in FDM is presented. Using experimentally measured surface roughness response of the FDM parts, an ANFIS prediction model was developed to obtain the surface roughness in the FDM parts using the main critical process parameters that affects the surface quality. The ANFIS model was validated and compared with experimental test results.

Keywords: surface roughness, fused deposition modelling (FDM), adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), orientation

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Authors: P. Agnivesh, P. V. Ponambala Moorthi

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Evolution of information modelling leads to the visualisation of well-organized built environment. Building Information Modelling (BIM) is considered as evolution in the off-site construction which essentially enhances and controls the present scenario of on-site construction paradigms. Promptness, sustainability and security are considered as the important characteristics of the building information modelling. Projects that uses BIM are tied firmly by technology but distributed organizationally. This allows different team members in the project to associate and integrate the works and work flows. This will in turn improve the efficiency of work breakdown structure. Internationally BIM had been accepted as modern computer aided way of information sharing by construction industry for efficient way of manipulation in order to avoid the on-site misperceptions. Even though, in developing countries like India BIM is in the phase of start and requires lot of mandates and policies to be brought about by the government for its widespread implementations. This paper reviews the current scenario of BIM worldwide and in India and suggests for the improved implementation of building modelling for Indian policy condition.

Keywords: building information modelling, Indian polity, information modelling, information sharing, mandates and policies, sustainability.

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Authors: Oluwaseun K. Oyebode, Josiah A. Adeyemo

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Hydrological modelling plays a crucial role in the planning and management of water resources, most especially in water stressed regions where the need to effectively manage the available water resources is of critical importance. However, due to the complex, nonlinear and dynamic behaviour of hydro-climatic interactions, achieving reliable modelling of water resource systems and accurate projection of hydrological parameters are extremely challenging. Although a significant number of modelling techniques (process-based and data-driven) have been developed and adopted in that regard, the field of hydrological modelling is still considered as one that has sluggishly progressed over the past decades. This is majorly as a result of the identification of some degree of uncertainty in the methodologies and results of techniques adopted. In recent times, evolutionary computation (EC) techniques have been developed and introduced in response to the search for efficient and reliable means of providing accurate solutions to hydrological related problems. This paper presents a comprehensive review of the underlying principles, methodological needs and applications of a promising evolutionary computation modelling technique – genetic programming (GP). It examines the specific characteristics of the technique which makes it suitable to solving hydrological modelling problems. It discusses the opportunities inherent in the application of GP in water related-studies such as rainfall estimation, rainfall-runoff modelling, streamflow forecasting, sediment transport modelling, water quality modelling and groundwater modelling among others. Furthermore, the means by which such opportunities could be harnessed in the near future are discussed. In all, a case for total embracement of GP and its variants in hydrological modelling studies is made so as to put in place strategies that would translate into achieving meaningful progress as it relates to modelling of water resource systems, and also positively influence decision-making by relevant stakeholders.

Keywords: computational modelling, evolutionary algorithms, genetic programming, hydrological modelling

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Authors: K. Sekulová, M. Šimon

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The article demonstrates on a case study how it is possible to identify MSD risk. It is based on a dissertation risk identification model of occupational diseases formation in relation to the work activity that determines what risk can endanger workers who are exposed to the specific risk factors. It is evaluated based on statistical calculations. These risk factors are main cause of upper-extremities musculoskeletal disorders.

Keywords: case study, upper-extremity musculoskeletal disorders, ergonomics, risk identification

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Authors: R. Whalley

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The heat transfer modelling for a diffusion process will be considered. Difficulties in computing the time-distance dynamics of the representation will be addressed. Incomplete and irrational Laplace function will be identified as the computational issue. Alternative approaches to the response evaluation process will be provided. An illustration application problem will be presented. Graphical results confirming the theoretical procedures employed will be provided.

Keywords: heat, transfer, diffusion, modelling, computation

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Authors: Selim M. Khan, Dustin D. Pearson, Tryggve Rönnqvist, Markus E. Nielsen, Joshua M. Taron, Aaron A. Goodarzi

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Accumulation of radioactive radon gas in indoor air poses a serious risk to human health by increasing the lifetime risk of lung cancer and is classified by IARC as a category one carcinogen. Radon exposure risks are a function of geologic, geographic, design, and human behavioural variables and can change over time. Using time series and deep machine learning modelling, we analyzed long-term radon test outcomes as a function of building metrics from 25,489 Canadian and 38,596 Swedish residential properties constructed between 1945 to 2020. While Canadian and Swedish properties built between 1970 and 1980 are comparable (96–103 Bq/m³), innate radon risks subsequently diverge, rising in Canada and falling in Sweden such that 21st Century Canadian houses show 467% greater average radon (131 Bq/m³) relative to Swedish equivalents (28 Bq/m³). These trends are consistent across housing types and regions within each country. The introduction of energy efficiency measures within Canadian and Swedish building codes coincided with opposing radon level trajectories in each nation. Deep machine learning modelling predicts that, without intervention, average Canadian residential radon levels will increase to 176 Bq/m³ by 2050, emphasizing the importance and urgency of future building code intervention to achieve systemic radon reduction in Canada.

Keywords: radon health risk, time-series, deep machine learning, lung cancer, Canada, Sweden

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Authors: Atousa Khodadadyan, Ali Rostami

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The objective of off-site construction manufacturing is to utilise the workforce and machinery in a controlled environment without external interference for higher productivity and quality. The usage of prefabricated components can save up to 14% of the total energy consumption in comparison with the equivalent number of cast-in-place ones. Despite the benefits of prefabrication construction, its current project practices encompass technical and managerial issues. Building design, precast components’ production, logistics, and prefabrication installation processes are still mostly discontinued and fragmented. Furthermore, collaboration among prefabrication manufacturers, transportation parties, and on-site assemblers rely on real-time information such as the status of precast components, delivery progress, and the location of components. From the technical point of view, in this industry, geometric variability is still prevalent, which can be caused during the transportation or production of components. These issues indicate that there are still many aspects of prefabricated construction that can be developed using disruptive technologies. Practical real-time risk analysis can be used to address these issues as well as the management of safety, quality, and construction environment issues. On the other hand, the lack of research about risk assessment and the absence of standards and tools hinder risk management modeling in prefabricated construction. It is essential to note that no risk management standard has been established explicitly for prefabricated construction projects, and most software packages do not provide tailor-made functions for this type of projects.

Keywords: project risk management, risk analysis, risk modelling, prefabricated construction projects

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Authors: Sujesh F. Sujan, Steve W. Jones, Arto Kiviniemi

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The use of Building Information Modelling (BIM) in the Architectural-Engineering-Construction (AEC) industry is a form of systemic innovation. Unlike incremental innovation, (such as the technological development of CAD from hand based drawings to 2D electronically printed drawings) any form of systemic innovation in Project-Based Inter-Organisational Networks requires complete collaboration and results in numerous benefits if adopted and utilised properly. Proper use of BIM involves people collaborating with the use of interoperable BIM compliant tools. The AEC industry globally has been known for its adversarial and fragmented nature where firms take advantage of one another to increase their own profitability. Due to the industry’s nature, getting people to collaborate by unifying their goals is critical to successful BIM adoption. However, this form of innovation is often being forced artificially in the old ways of working which do not suit collaboration. This may be one of the reasons for its low global use even though the technology was developed more than 20 years ago. Therefore, there is a need to develop a metric/method to support and allow industry players to gain confidence in their investment into BIM software and workflow methods. This paper departs from defining systemic risk as a risk that affects all the project participants at a given stage of a project and defines categories of systemic risks. The need to generalise is to allow method applicability to any industry where the category will be the same, but the example of the risk will depend on the industry the study is done in. The method proposed seeks to use individual perception of an example of systemic risk as a key parameter. The significance of this study lies in relating the variance of individual perception of systemic risk to how much the team is collaborating. The method bases its notions on the claim that a more unified range of individual perceptions would mean a higher probability that the team is collaborating better. Since contracts and procurement devise how a project team operates, the method could also break the methodological barrier of highly subjective findings that case studies inflict, which has limited the possibility of generalising between global industries. Since human nature applies in all industries, the authors’ intuition is that perception can be a valuable parameter to study collaboration which is essential especially in projects that utilise systemic innovation such as BIM.

Keywords: building information modelling, perception of risk, systemic innovation, team collaboration

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Authors: Ruchi Agarwal, Jake Ansell

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Austerity impacts on all aspects of society. Companies into the future will have to be more capable of dealing with the risks they face. Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) has widely been accepted in recent years as an approach to manage risks within businesses. ERM attempts to tackle risk holistically with gains from opportunities in a managing risk and reduction in the risk of failure. The paper reviews merits and demerits of approaches to risk management in regard to antifragility. A qualitative study has investigated current practices and the problems with ERM implementation by interviewing over 25 chief risk officers and senior management. The findings indicate the gap in ERM description, understanding, and implementation. The paper suggests risk learning and expertise knowledge supports development of effective enterprise risk management by designing systems with inherent resilience.

Keywords: risk management, interviews, antifragility, failure

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Authors: Beatrice Wamuyu Muchiri, Monika M. L. Dos Santos

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An increasingly recognised prevention approach for substance use entails reduction in risk factors and enhancement of promotive or protective factors in individuals and the environment surrounding them during their growth and development. However, in order to enhance the effectiveness of this approach, continuous study of risk aspects targeting different cultures, social groups and mixture of society has been recommended. This study evaluated the impact of potential risk and protective factors associated with family management and relations on adolescent substance abuse in South Africa. Exploratory analysis and cumulative odds ordinal logistic regression modelling was performed on the data while controlling for demographic and socio-economic characteristics on adolescent substance use. The most intensely used substances were tobacco, cannabis, cocaine, heroin and alcohol in decreasing order of use intensity. The specific protective or risk impact of family management or relations factors varied from substance to substance. Risk factors associated with demographic and socio-economic factors included being male, younger age, being in lower education grades, coloured ethnicity, adolescents from divorced parents and unemployed or fully employed mothers. Significant family relations risk and protective factors against substance use were classified as either family functioning and conflict or family bonding and support. Several family management factors, categorised as parental monitoring, discipline, behavioural control and rewards, demonstrated either risk or protective effect on adolescent substance use. Some factors had either interactive risk or protective impact on substance use or lost significance when analysed jointly with other factors such as controlled variables. Interaction amongst risk or protective factors as well as the type of substance should be considered when further considering interventions based on these risk or protective factors. Studies in other geographical regions, institutions and with better gender balance are recommended to improve upon the representativeness of the results. Several other considerations to be made when formulating interventions, the shortcomings of this study and possible improvements as well as future studies are also suggested.

Keywords: risk factors, protective factors, substance use, adolescents

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Authors: Selvakumar Ulaganathan, Ivo Couckuyt, Francesco Ferranti, Tom Dhaene, Eric Laermans

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Variable-fidelity surrogate modelling offers an efficient way to approximate function data available in multiple degrees of accuracy each with varying computational cost. In this paper, a Kriging-based variable-fidelity surrogate modelling approach is introduced to approximate such deterministic data. Initially, individual Kriging surrogate models, which are enhanced with gradient data of different degrees of accuracy, are constructed. Then these Gradient enhanced Kriging surrogate models are strategically coupled using a recursive CoKriging formulation to provide an accurate surrogate model for the highest fidelity data. While, intuitively, gradient data is useful to enhance the accuracy of surrogate models, the primary motivation behind this work is to investigate if it is also worthwhile incorporating gradient data of varying degrees of accuracy.

Keywords: Kriging, CoKriging, Surrogate modelling, Variable- fidelity modelling, Gradients

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