Search results for: seismic pounding mitigation

Authors: Muhammad Arif Rahman, Gamma Abdul Jabbar, Enggar Handra Pangestu, Alfi Syahrin Qadri, Iryan Anugrah Putra, Rizqi Ramadhandi.

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Indonesia lies above three major tectonic plates, Indo-Australia plate, Eurasia plate, and Pacific plate. Interactions between those plates resulted in high tectonic and volcanic activities that corelates into high risk of geological hazards in adjacent areas, one of the areas is in North of Sulawesi’s Islands. This case raises a problem in terms of infrastructure in order to mitigate existing infrastructure and various future infrastructures plan. One of the infrastructures that is essentials to enhance telecommunication aspect is submarine fiber optic cable, that has risk to geological hazard. This cable is essential that act as backbone in telecommunication. Damaged fiber optic cables can pose serious problem that make existing signal to be loss and have negative impact to people’s social and economic factor with also decreasing various governmental services performance. Submarine cables are facing challenges in terms of geological hazards, for instance are seamounts activity. Previous studies show that until 2023, five seamounts are identified in North of Sulawesi. Seamounts itself can damage and trigger many activities that can risks submarine cables, one of the examples is submarine landslide. Main focuses of this study are to identify new possible seamounts and submarine landslide path in area North of Sulawesi Islands to help minimize risks pose by those hazards, either to existing or future plan submarine cables. Using bathymetry data, this study conduct slope analysis and use distinctive morphological features to interpret possible seamounts. Then we mapped out valleys in between seamounts and determine where sediments might flow in case of landslide, and to finally, know how it affect submarine cables in the area.

Keywords: bathymetry, geological hazard, mitigation, seamount, submarine cable, submarine landslide, volcanic activity

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Authors: Maffo Maffo Nicole Liliane, Mounmemi Kpoumie Hubert, Libalah Moses, Ouandji Angele, Zapfack Louis

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Forest degradation causes biodiversity and carbon loss and thus indirectly contributes to climate change. In order to assess the contribution of forests to climate change mitigation, the present study was conducted in the Ngambe-Ndom-Nyanon Communal Forest with the main objective of assessing the floristic diversity and estimating the carbon stock in the different reservoirs of the said forest. Nine plots of 2000 m² each were installed in 3 TOSs of the forest (young secondary forests, gallery forests and fallow lands) with a total area of 18,000 m² or 1,8 ha. All trees with a Diameter at Breast Height (DBH) ≥ 5 cm were inventoried at 1.30 m from the ground in each plot. Species richness, floristic diversity indices, and structural parameters were studied. 1542 trees divided into 162 species, 122 genera and 44 families were identified. The most important families were listed: Myristicaceae (30.22%), Apocynaceae (25.20%), Fabaceae (24.41%), Euphorbiaceae (22.91%) and Phyllanthaceae (20.23%). The richest genera are: Cola, Macaranga, Oncoba (4 species each); the genera Diospyros, Trichilia, Vitex and Zanthoxylum (3 species each). The ecologically important species within the forest studied are: Funtumia africana (26.14%), Coelocaryon preussii (18.46%), Pycnanthus angolensis (15.57%), Tabernaemontana crassa (14.85%) and Olax subscorpioidea (13.04%). Assessment of carbon stocks in the six forest reservoirs studied (living trees and roots, understorey, dead wood, litter and rootlets) shows that they vary according to the land-use types. It is 119.41 t.C.ha-¹ in gallery forest, 115.2 t.C.ha-¹ in young secondary forest and 90.56 t.C.ha-¹ in fallow. The Wilcoxon statistical test shows that the carbon in the young secondary forest is identical to that in the fallow, which is identical to the carbon in the gallery forest. At the individual species level, the largest diameter class [25-35[ sequesters the most carbon (232.94 tC/ha). This work shows that the quantity of carbon sequestered by a biotope is a function of the age of the stand.

Keywords: floristic diversity, carbon stocks, evergreen forests, communal forest, Ngambé-Ndom-Nyanon

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Authors: Maryam Jabeen

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In recent times, there has been a notable surge in attention towards diverse literacy concepts such as media literacy, information literacy, and digital literacy. These concepts have garnered escalating interest, spurring the emergence of novel approaches, particularly in the aftermath of the Covid-19 crisis. However, amidst discussions of crises, the domain of crisis literacy remains largely uncharted within academic exploration. Crisis literacy, also referred to as disaster literacy, denotes an individual's aptitude to not only comprehend but also effectively apply information, enabling well-informed decision-making and adherence to instructions about disaster mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery. This theoretical and descriptive study seeks to transcend foundational literacy concepts, underscoring the urgency for an in-depth exploration of crisis literacy and its interplay with the realm of media communication. Given the profound impact of the pandemic experience and the looming uncertainty of potential future crises, there arises a pressing need to elevate crisis literacy, or disaster literacy, towards heightened autonomy and active involvement within the spheres of critical disaster preparedness, recovery initiatives, and media communication domains. This research paper is part of my ongoing Ph.D. research study, which explores on a broader level the Encoding and decoding of media communications in relation to crisis literacy. The primary objective of this research paper is to expound upon a descriptive, theoretical research endeavor delving into this domain. The emphasis lies in highlighting the paramount significance of media communications in literacy of crisis, coupled with an accentuated focus on its role in providing information to marginalized populations amidst crises. In conclusion, this research bridges the gap in crisis literacy correlation to media communications exploration, advocating for a comprehensive understanding of its dynamics and its symbiotic relationship with media communications. It intends to foster a heightened sense of crisis literacy, particularly within marginalized communities, catalyzing proactive participation in disaster preparedness, recovery processes, and adept media interactions.

Keywords: covid-19, crisis literacy, crisis, marginalized, media and communications, pandemic, vulnerable people

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Authors: Anargha A. Dhorde, Deshpande Gauri, Amit G. Dhorde

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Mula-Mutha basin is one of the speedily urbanizing watersheds, wherein two major urban centers, Pune and Pimpri-Chinchwad, have developed at a shocking rate in the last two decades. Such changing land use/land cover (LULC) is prone to hydrological problems and flash floods are a frequent, eventuality in the lower reaches of the basin. The present research brings out the impact of varying LULC, impervious surfaces on urban surface hydrology and generates storm-runoff scenarios for the hydrological units. The two multi-temporal satellite images were processed and supervised classification is performed with > 75% accuracy. The built-up has increased from 14.4% to 34.37% in the 28 years span, which is concentrated in and around the Pune-PCMC region. Impervious surfaces that were obtained by population calibrated multiple regression models. Almost 50% area of the watershed is impervious, which attribute to increase surface runoff and flash floods. The SCS-CN method was employed to calculate surface runoff of the watershed. The comparison between calculated and measured values of runoff was performed in a statistically precise way which shows no significant difference. Increasing built-up areas, as well as impervious surface areas due to rapid urbanization and industrialization, may lead to generating high runoff volumes in the basin especially in the urbanized areas of the watershed and along the major transportation arteries. Simulations generated with 50 mm and 100 mm rainstorm depth conspicuously noted that most of the changes in terms of increased runoff are constricted to the highly urbanized areas. Considering whole watershed area, the runoff values 39 m³ generated with 1'' rainfall whereas only urbanized areas of the basin (Pune and Pimpari-Chinchwad) were generated 11154 m³ runoff. Such analysis is crucial in providing information regarding their intensity and location, which proves instrumental in their analysis in order to formulate proper mitigation measures and rehabilitation strategies.

Keywords: land use/land cover, LULC, impervious surfaces, surface hydrology, storm-runoff scenarios

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Authors: Haj Najafi Leila, Tehranizadeh Mohsen

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Dependencies between diverse factors involved in probabilistic seismic loss evaluation are recognized to be an imperative issue in acquiring accurate loss estimates. Dependencies among component damage costs could be taken into account considering two partial distinct states of independent or perfectly-dependent for component damage states; however, in our best knowledge, there is no available procedure to take account of loss dependencies in story level. This paper attempts to present a method called "modal cost superposition method" for decoupling story damage costs subjected to earthquake ground motions dealt with closed form differential equations between damage cost and engineering demand parameters which should be solved in complex system considering all stories' cost equations by the means of the introduced "substituted matrixes of mass and stiffness". Costs are treated as probabilistic variables with definite statistic factors of median and standard deviation amounts and a presumed probability distribution. To supplement the proposed procedure and also to display straightforwardness of its application, one benchmark study has been conducted. Acceptable compatibility has been proven for the estimated damage costs evaluated by the new proposed modal and also frequently used stochastic approaches for entire building; however, in story level, insufficiency of employing modification factor for incorporating occurrence probability dependencies between stories has been revealed due to discrepant amounts of dependency between damage costs of different stories. Also, more dependency contribution in occurrence probability of loss could be concluded regarding more compatibility of loss results in higher stories than the lower ones, whereas reduction in incorporation portion of cost modes provides acceptable level of accuracy and gets away from time consuming calculations including some limited number of cost modes in high mode situation.

Keywords: dependency, story-cost, cost modes, engineering demand parameter

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Authors: Iuri Salukvadze

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Development of Georgian Economy largely depends on its effective use of its transit country potential. The value of Georgia as the part of Europe-Asia corridor has increased; this increases the interest of western and eastern countries to Georgia as to the country that laid on the transit axes that implies transit infrastructure creation and development in Georgia. It is important to use compacted concrete with the additive in modern road construction industry. Even in the 21-century, concrete remains as the main vital constructive building material, therefore innovative, economic and environmentally protected technologies are needed. Georgian construction market requires the use of concrete of new generation, adaptation of nanotechnologies to the local realities that will give the ability to create multifunctional, nano-technological high effective materials. It is highly important to research their physical and mechanical states. The study of compacted concrete with the additives is necessary to use in the road construction in the future and to increase hardness of roads in Georgia. The aim of the research is to study the physical-mechanical properties of the compacted concrete with the additives based on the local materials. Any experimental study needs large number of experiments from one side in order to achieve high accuracy and optimal number of the experiments with minimal charges and in the shortest period of time from the other side. To solve this problem in practice, it is possible to use experiments planning static and mathematical methods. For the materials properties research we will use distribution hypothesis, measurements results by normal law according to which divergence of the obtained results is caused by the error of method and inhomogeneity of the object. As the result of the study, we will get resistible compacted concrete with additives for the motor roads that will improve roads infrastructure and give us saving rate while construction of the roads and their exploitation.

Keywords: construction, seismic protection systems, soil, motor roads, concrete

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Authors: G. St-Pierre-Lemieux, E. Askari Mahvelati, D. Groleau, P. Proulx

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Mathematical modeling has become an important tool for the study of foam behavior. Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) can be used to investigate the behavior of foam around foam breakers to better understand the mechanisms leading to the ‘destruction’ of foam. The focus of this investigation was the simple cone foam breaker, whose performance has been identified in numerous studies. While the optimal pumping angle is known from the literature, the contribution of pressure drop, shearing, and centrifugal forces to the foam syneresis are subject to speculation. This work provides a screening of those factors against changes in the cone angle and foam rheology. The CFD simulation was made with the open source OpenFOAM toolkits on a full three-dimensional model discretized using hexahedral cells. The geometry was generated using a python script then meshed with blockMesh. The OpenFOAM Volume Of Fluid (VOF) method was used (interFOAM) to obtain a detailed description of the interfacial forces, and the model k-omega SST was used to calculate the turbulence fields. The cone configuration allows the use of a rotating wall boundary condition. In each case, a pair of immiscible fluids, foam/air or water/air was used. The foam was modeled as a shear thinning (Herschel-Buckley) fluid. The results were compared to our measurements and to results found in the literature, first by computing the pumping rate of the cone, and second by the liquid break-up at the exit of the cone. A 3D printed version of the cones submerged in foam (shaving cream or soap solution) and water, at speeds varying between 400 RPM and 1500 RPM, was also used to validate the modeling results by calculating the torque exerted on the shaft. While most of the literature is focusing on cone behavior using Newtonian fluids, this works explore its behavior in shear thinning fluid which better reflects foam apparent rheology. Those simulations bring new light on the cone behavior within the foam and allow the computation of shearing, pressure, and velocity of the fluid, enabling to better evaluate the efficiency of the cones as foam breakers. This study contributes to clarify the mechanisms behind foam breaker performances, at least in part, using modern CFD techniques.

Keywords: bioreactor, CFD, foam breaker, foam mitigation, OpenFOAM

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Authors: Julio Jesus Salazar, Max Jesus De Lama

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The challenges of water management are aggravated by global change, which implies high complexity and associated uncertainty; water management is difficult because water networks cross domains (natural, societal, and political), scales (space, time, jurisdictional, institutional, knowledge, etc.) and levels (area: patches to global; knowledge: a specific case to generalized principles). In this context, we need to apply natural and non-natural measures to manage water and soil. The Basin Management Methodology considers multifunctional measures of natural water retention and erosion control and soil formation to protect water resources and address the challenges related to the recovery or conservation of the ecosystem, as well as natural characteristics of water bodies, to improve the quantitative status of water bodies and reduce vulnerability to floods and droughts. This method of water management focuses on the positive impacts of the chemical and ecological status of water bodies, restoration of the functioning of the ecosystem and its natural services; thus, contributing to both adaptation and mitigation of climate change. This methodology was applied in 7 interventions in the sub-basin of the Shullcas River in Huancayo-Junín-Peru, obtaining great benefits in the framework of the participation of alliances of actors and integrated planning scenarios. To implement the methodology in the sub-basin of the Shullcas River, a process called Climate Smart Territories (CST) was used; with which the variables were characterized in a highly complex space. The diagnosis was then worked using risk management and adaptation to climate change. Finally, it was concluded with the selection of alternatives and projects of this type. Therefore, the CST approach and process face the challenges of climate change through integrated, systematic, interdisciplinary and collective responses at different scales that fit the needs of ecosystems and their services that are vital to human well-being. This methodology is now replicated at the level of the Mantaro river basin, improving with other initiatives that lead to the model of a resilient basin.

Keywords: climate-smart territories, climate change, ecosystem services, natural measures, Climate Smart Territories (CST) approach

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Authors: Esra Zengin, Sinan Akkar

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Reliable and accurate prediction of nonlinear structural response requires specification of appropriate earthquake ground motions to be used in nonlinear time history analysis. The current research has mainly focused on selection and manipulation of real earthquake records that can be seen as the most critical step in the performance based seismic design and assessment of the structures. Utilizing amplitude scaled ground motions that matches with the target spectra is commonly used technique for the estimation of nonlinear structural response. Representative ground motion ensembles are selected to match target spectrum such as scenario-based spectrum derived from ground motion prediction equations, Uniform Hazard Spectrum (UHS), Conditional Mean Spectrum (CMS) or Conditional Spectrum (CS). Different sets of criteria exist among those developed methodologies to select and scale ground motions with the objective of obtaining robust estimation of the structural performance. This study presents ground motion selection and scaling procedure that considers the spectral variability at target demand with the level of ground motion dispersion. The proposed methodology provides a set of ground motions whose response spectra match target median and corresponding variance within a specified period interval. The efficient and simple algorithm is used to assemble the ground motion sets. The scaling stage is based on the minimization of the error between scaled median and the target spectra where the dispersion of the earthquake shaking is preserved along the period interval. The impact of the spectral variability on nonlinear response distribution is investigated at the level of inelastic single degree of freedom systems. In order to see the effect of different selection and scaling methodologies on fragility curve estimations, results are compared with those obtained by CMS-based scaling methodology. The variability in fragility curves due to the consideration of dispersion in ground motion selection process is also examined.

Keywords: ground motion selection, scaling, uncertainty, fragility curve

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Authors: Mohammad Mosaddik Rahman

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This study embarks on an exploratory journey to assess the pervasive issue of heavy metal contamination in the water bodies along Chittagong Coast, Bangladesh. Situated along the mesmerizing Bay of Bengal, known for its potential as an emerging tourist haven, economic zone, ship breaking yard, confronts significant environmental hurdles. The core of these challenges lies in the contamination from heavy metals such as lead, cadmium, chromium, and mercury, which detrimentally impact both the ecological integrity and public health of the region. This contamination primarily stems from industrial activities, particularly those involving metallurgical and chemical processes, which release these metals into the environment, leading to their accumulation in soil and water bodies. The study's primary aim is to conduct a thorough assessment of heavy metal pollution levels, alongside an analysis of nutrient variations, focusing on nitrates and nitrites. Methodologically, the study leverages systematic sampling and advanced analytical tools like the Hach 3900 spectrophotometer to ensure precise and reliable data collection. The implications of heavy metal presence are multifaceted, affecting microbial and aquatic life, and posing severe health risks to the local population, including respiratory problems, neurological disorders, and an increased risk of cancer. The results of this study highlight the urgent need for effective mitigation strategies and regulatory measures to address this critical issue. By providing a comprehensive understanding of the environmental and public health implications of heavy metal contamination in Chittagong Coast, this research endeavours to serve as a catalyst for change, emphasising the need for pollution control and advancements in water management policies. It is envisioned that the outcomes of this study will guide stakeholders in collaborating to develop and implement sustainable solutions, ultimately safeguarding the region’s environment and public health.

Keywords: heavy metal, environmental health, pollution control policies, shipbreaking yard

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Authors: Mutasim A. M. Ez Eldin, Tareq Saeid Al Zahrani, Gabel Zamil Al-Barakati, Ibrahim Mohamed AlHarthi, Marwan Mohamed Al Saikhan, Waleed Abdel Aziz Al Aklouk, Waheed Mohamed Saeid Ba Amer

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The Knowledge Economic City (KEC) of Al Madinah Al Munawarah is one of the major projects and represents a cornerstone for the new development activities for Al Madinah. The study area contains different geological units dominated by basalt and overlain by surface deposits. The surface soils vary in thickness and can be classified into well-graded SAND with silt and gravel (SW-SM), silty SAND with gravel (SM), silty GRAVEL with sand (GM), and sandy SILTY clay (CL-ML). The subsurface soil obtained from the drilled boreholes can be classified into poorly graded GRAVEL (GP), well-graded GRAVEL with sand (GW), poorly graded GRAVEL with silt (GP-GM), silty CLAYEY gravel with sand (GC-GM), silty SAND with gravel (SM), silt with SAND (ML), and silty CLAY with sand (CL-ML), sandy lean CLAY (CL), and lean CLAY (CL). The relative density of the deposit and the different gravel sizes intercalated with the soil influenced the Standard Penetration Tests (SPT) values. The SPT N values are high and approach refusal even at shallow depths. The shallow refusal depth (0.10 to 0.90m) of the Dynamic Cone Penetration Test (DCPT) was observed. Generally, the soil can be described as inactive with low plasticity and dense to very dense consistency. The basalt of the KEC site is characterized by slightly (W2) to moderately (W3) weathering, their strength ranges from moderate (S4) to very strong (S2), and the Rock Quality Designation (RQD) ranges from very poor (R5) to excellent (R1). The engineering geological map of the KEC characterized the geoengineering properties of the soil and rock materials and classified them into many zones. The high sulphate (SO₄²⁻) and chloride (Cl⁻) contents in groundwater call for protective measures for foundation concrete. The current study revealed that geohazard(s) mitigation measures concerning floods, volcanic eruptions, and earthquakes should be taken into consideration.

Keywords: engineering geology, KEC, petrographic description, rock and soil investigations

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Authors: Thomas Ruppert, Shana Jones, J. Scott Pippin

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State and federal government agencies within the United States have recently invested substantial resources into studies of future flood risk conditions associated with climate change and sea-level rise. A review of numerous case studies has uncovered several key themes that speak to an overall incoherence within current flood risk assessment procedures in the U.S. context. First, there are substantial local differences in the quality of available information about basic infrastructure, particularly with regard to local stormwater features and essential facilities that are fundamental components of effective flood hazard planning and mitigation. Second, there can be substantial mismatch between regulatory Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs) as produced by the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) and other 'current condition' flood assessment approaches. This is of particular concern in areas where FIRMs already seem to underestimate extant flood risk, which can only be expected to become a greater concern if future FIRMs do not appropriately account for changing climate conditions. Moreover, while there are incentives within the NFIP’s Community Rating System (CRS) to develop enhanced assessments that include future flood risk projections from climate change, the incentive structures seem to have counterintuitive implications that would tend to promote moral hazard. In particular, a technical finding of higher future risk seems to make it easier for a community to qualify for flood insurance savings, with much of these prospective savings applied to individual properties that have the most physical risk of flooding. However, there is at least some case study evidence to indicate that recognition of these issues is prompting broader discussion about the need to move beyond FIRMs as a standalone local flood planning standard. The paper concludes with approaches for developing climate adaptation and flood resilience strategies in the U.S. that move away from the social welfare model being applied through NFIP and toward more of an informed risk approach that transfers much of the investment responsibility over to individual private property owners.

Keywords: climate change adaptation, flood risk, moral hazard, sea-level rise

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Authors: Tarek Duzan

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Fractures are a fundamental property of most reservoirs. Despite their abundance, they remain difficult to detect and quantify. The most effective characterization of fractured reservoirs is accomplished by integrating geological, geophysical, and engineering data. Detection of fractures and defines their relative contribution is crucial in the early stages of exploration and later in the production of any field. Because fractures could completely change our thoughts, efforts, and planning to produce a specific field properly. From the structural point of view, all reservoirs are fractured to some point of extent. North Gialo field is thought to be a naturally fractured reservoir to some extent. Historically, natural fractured reservoirs are more complicated in terms of their exploration and production efforts, and most geologists tend to deny the presence of fractures as an effective variable. Our aim in this paper is to determine the degree of fracturing, and consequently, our evaluation and planning can be done properly and efficiently from day one. The challenging part in this field is that there is no enough data and straightforward well testing that can let us completely comfortable with the idea of fracturing; however, we cannot ignore the fractures completely. Logging images, available well testing, and limited core studies are our tools in this stage to evaluate, model, and predict possible fracture effects in this reservoir. The aims of this study are both fundamental and practical—to improve the prediction and diagnosis of natural-fracture attributes in N. Gialo hydrocarbon reservoirs and accurately simulate their influence on production. Moreover, the production of this field comes from 2-phase plan; a self depletion of oil and then gas injection period for pressure maintenance and increasing ultimate recovery factor. Therefore, well understanding of fracturing network is essential before proceeding with the targeted plan. New analytical methods will lead to more realistic characterization of fractured and faulted reservoir rocks. These methods will produce data that can enhance well test and seismic interpretations, and that can readily be used in reservoir simulators.

Keywords: natural fracture, sandstone reservoir, geological, geophysical, and engineering data

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Authors: Abubakar Maitama Yusuf Hotoro, Olokpo Israel Olofu, Yusuf U. Tarauni, Mudassir A. Umar, Aliyu A, Dahiru Garba Diso, Usman H. Jamoh, M. Sale

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The study assessed the impact of environmental pollution on groundwater potential at Tudun Murtala waste land fill using electrical resistivity, induced polarization and Physiochemical methods. The study area is located between latitude 12.023678N and longitude 8.573676 E. Geophysical data were collected at maximum length of 140m along twelve profiles using ABEM Terrameter SAS 1000. Results from the Geophysical analysis showed that the profiles were underlain by three lithological layers; the top layer consisting of Loamy and Sand soils, alluvium, granite, shale and sandstone. The second and third layers were predominantly made of weathered and fractured basements respectively. The potential groundwater water bearing zones of the study area occurred at VES2, VES4, VES5, VES6 and VES7. The thicknesses of the sounding points were found to be 20.8m at VES2; 25.2m at VES4; 13.2m at VES5; 50.8m at VES6 and 13.3m at VES7. The corresponding depths for the sounding points were 20.8m at VES2; 27.9m at VES4; 26.7m at VES5; 51.6m at VES6 and 24.9m at VES7 respectively. The Physiochemical study of selected groundwater samples assessed parameters such as the Electrical Conductivity, EC (288dS/m to 1365dS/m), TDS (170.8mg/L to 820mg/L) Pb (0.546mg/l to 0.629mg/l), Cu (-0.001mg/l to 0.004mg/l), and Cd (0.031mg/l to 0.092mg/l). The physiochemical results showed that the groundwater around the dumpsite may have been contaminated, especially in Dumpsite Hole 1 and Hole 2 at VES4 and VES6 respectively. There are indications for suspected leachate mitigation around the two VES points. Even though, the pH values of 6.4 and 6.2 at the two sounding points were considered to be within the permissible pH range (6.5 to 6.8). The values of other elements present in the groundwater for the samples at other VES points were found to be above permissible WHO and Nigerian Standards for Drinking Water.

Keywords: resistivity induced polarization, chargeability, landfill, leachate, contamination

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Authors: Abdel Rahman Khider Hassan

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This paper describes a multi-criteria geospatial model for prediction of landslide hazard zonation (LHZ) for Lake Naivasha catchment (Kenya), based on spatial analysis of integrated datasets of location intrinsic parameters (slope stability factors) and external landslides triggering factors (natural and man-made factors). The intrinsic dataset included: lithology, geometry of slope (slope inclination, aspect, elevation, and curvature) and land use/land cover. The landslides triggering factors included: rainfall as the climatic factor, in addition to the destructive effects reflected by proximity of roads and drainage network to areas that are susceptible to landslides. No published study on landslides has been obtained for this area. Thus, digital datasets of the above spatial parameters were conveniently acquired, stored, manipulated and analyzed in a Geographical Information System (GIS) using a multi-criteria grid overlay technique (in ArcGIS 10.2.2 environment). Deduction of landslide hazard zonation is done by applying weights based on relative contribution of each parameter to the slope instability, and finally, the weighted parameters grids were overlaid together to generate a map of the potential landslide hazard zonation (LHZ) for the lake catchment. From the total surface of 3200 km² of the lake catchment, most of the region (78.7 %; 2518.4 km²) is susceptible to moderate landslide hazards, whilst about 13% (416 km²) is occurring under high hazards. Only 1.0% (32 km²) of the catchment is displaying very high landslide hazards, and the remaining area (7.3 %; 233.6 km²) displays low probability of landslide hazards. This result confirms the importance of steep slope angles, lithology, vegetation land cover and slope orientation (aspect) as the major determining factors of slope failures. The information provided by the produced map of landslide hazard zonation (LHZ) could lay the basis for decision making as well as mitigation and applications in avoiding potential losses caused by landslides in the Lake Naivasha catchment in the Kenya Highlands.

Keywords: decision making, geospatial, landslide, multi-criteria, Naivasha

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Authors: Mohammad Mokhtari, Mehdi Masoodi, Parvaneh Faridi

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history of tsunami generating earthquakes along the Makran Subduction Zone provides evidence of the potential tsunami hazard for the whole coastal area. In comparison with other subduction zone in the world, the Makran region of southern Pakistan and southeastern Iran remains low seismicity. Also, it is one of the least studied area in the northwest of the Indian Ocean regarding tsunami studies. We present a review of studies dealing with the historical /and ongoing palaeotsunamis supported by IGCP of UNESCO in the Makran Subduction Zone. The historical tsunami presented here includes about nine tsunamis in the Makran Subduction Zone, of which over 7 tsunamis occur in the eastern Makran. Tsunami is not as common in the western Makran as in the eastern Makran, where a database of historical events exists. The historically well-documented event is related to the 1945 earthquake with a magnitude of 8.1moment magnitude and tsunami in the western and eastern Makran. There are no details as to whether a tsunami was generated by a seismic event before 1945 off western Makran. But several potentially large tsunamigenic events in the MSZ before 1945 occurred in 325 B.C., 1008, 1483, 1524, 1765, 1851, 1864, and 1897. Here we will present new findings from a historical point of view, immediately, we would like to emphasize that the area needs to be considered with higher research investigation. As mentioned above, a palaeotsunami (geological evidence) is now being planned, and here we will present the first phase result. From a risk point of view, the study shows as preliminary achievement within 20 minutes the wave reaches to Iranian as well Pakistan and Oman coastal zone with very much destructive tsunami waves capable of inundating destructive effect. It is important to note that all the coastal areas of all states surrounding the MSZ are being developed very rapidly, so any event would have a devastating effect on this region. Although several papers published about modelling, seismology, tsunami deposits in the last decades; as Makran is a forgotten subduction zone, more data such as the main crustal structure, fault location, and its related parameter are required.

Keywords: historical tsunami, Indian ocean, makran subduction zone, palaeotsunami

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Authors: Haileyesus Tessema Alemneh, Abiyu Enyew Molla, Oluwole Daniel Makinde

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Introduction: Faba bean is one of the most important grown plants worldwide for humans and animals. Several biotic and abiotic elements have limited the output of faba beans, irrespective of their diverse significance. Many faba bean pathogens have been reported so far, of which the most important yield-limiting disease is chocolate spot disease (Botrytis fabae). The dynamics of disease transmission and decision-making processes for intervention programs for disease control are now better understood through the use of mathematical modeling. Currently, a lot of mathematical modeling researchers are interested in plant disease modeling. Objective: In this paper, a deterministic mathematical model for chocolate spot disease (CSD) on faba bean plant with an optimal control model was developed and analyzed to examine the best strategy for controlling CSD. Methodology: Three control interventions, quarantine (u2), chemical control (u3), and prevention (u1), are employed that would establish the optimal control model. The optimality system, characterization of controls, the adjoint variables, and the Hamiltonian are all generated employing Pontryagin’s maximum principle. A cost-effective approach is chosen from a set of possible integrated strategies using the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). The forward-backward sweep iterative approach is used to run numerical simulations. Results: The Hamiltonian, the optimality system, the characterization of the controls, and the adjoint variables were established. The numerical results demonstrate that each integrated strategy can reduce the diseases within the specified period. However, due to limited resources, an integrated strategy of prevention and uprooting was found to be the best cost-effective strategy to combat CSD. Conclusion: Therefore, attention should be given to the integrated cost-effective and environmentally eco-friendly strategy by stakeholders and policymakers to control CSD and disseminate the integrated intervention to the farmers in order to fight the spread of CSD in the Faba bean population and produce the expected yield from the field.

Keywords: CSD, optimal control theory, Pontryagin’s maximum principle, numerical simulation, cost-effectiveness analysis

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Authors: Seyed Reza Alvani, Norzarina Mohd Zaharim

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Diabetes mellitus is one of the chronic, progressive illnesses that has reached a widespread level all over the world and considered an extreme life-threatening condition in South East Asian countries region include Malaysia. Co-morbid psychological factors like diabetes-related distress and low level of psychological well-being are related to high levels of blood sugar and hypo/hyperglycemia complications. As a result, the implementation of any effective psychological interventions among diabetes patients is necessary. One such intervention is cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) that is approved and suggested by many professionals as an empirically-supported technique of treatment for people how are suffering from diabetes around the world where there is no clear evidence of using this technique in Malaysia. The target of this study was to see whether or not participation in group CBT would end in an improvement of psychological well-being (by decreasing the levels of depression and anxiety) and diabetes-related distress followed by lower level of blood sugar level. The sample of the present study was 60 type 2 diabetes adults (ages 20-65) with HbA1c ≥ 7 from Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM) clinic. All participants were selected by the convenience sampling technique. Participants completed Well-Being Questionaire (W-BQ) and Distress Scale (DDS-17) after signing written consent form. Those participants who were interested to join CBT groups were placed to the experimental groups, and people who were not interested were assigned to the control group. The experimental groups (n = 30) received group CBT, whereas participants in the control group (n = 30) did not receive any kind of psychological intervention. For testing the effect of intervention, mixed between-within ANOVA used. The entire intervention program took three months, and a significant improvement in the level of psychological well-being and decline in the level of diabetes distress observed among participants from experimental group, but not for those in the control group. Additionally, the result of the study suggested that group CBT could help participants in experimental group achieve more acceptable HbA1c levels in comparison with those in the control group. Malaysian Ministry of Health, researcher and governors should give due interest and commitment to psychological care as a pathway to diabetes mitigation among Malaysian adults.

Keywords: cognitive behavioral therapy, diabetes related distress, diabetes type 2, Malaysia, well-being

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Authors: Eric A. Morris, Xia Liu, Yee Ka Wong, Greg J. Evans, Jeff R. Brook

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Air quality monitoring stations tend to be widely distributed and are often located far from major roadways, thus, determining where, when, and which traffic-related air pollutants (TRAPs) have the greatest impact on public health becomes a matter of extrapolation. Compact, multipollutant sensor systems are an effective solution as they enable several TRAPs to be monitored in a geospatially dense network, thus filling in the gaps between conventional monitoring stations. This work describes two applications of one such system named AirSENCE for gathering actionable air quality data relevant to smart city infrastructures. In the first application, four AirSENCE devices were co-located with traffic monitors around the perimeter of a city block in Oshawa, Ontario. This study, which coincided with the COVID-19 outbreak of 2020 and subsequent lockdown measures, demonstrated a direct relationship between decreased traffic volumes and TRAP concentrations. Conversely, road construction was observed to cause elevated TRAP levels while reducing traffic volumes, illustrating that conventional smart city sensors such as traffic counters provide inadequate data for inferring air quality conditions. The second application used two AirSENCE sensors on opposite sides of a major 2-way commuter road in Toronto. Clear correlations of TRAP concentrations with wind direction were observed, which shows that impacted areas are not necessarily static and may exhibit high day-to-day variability in air quality conditions despite consistent traffic volumes. Both of these applications provide compelling evidence favouring the inclusion of air quality sensors in current and future smart city infrastructure planning. Such sensors provide direct measurements that are useful for public health alerting as well as decision-making for projects involving traffic mitigation, heavy construction, and urban renewal efforts.

Keywords: distributed sensor network, continuous ambient air quality monitoring, Smart city sensors, Internet of Things, traffic-related air pollutants

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Authors: Wassamon Kun-Amornpong

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When a financial crisis occurs, there will be a law and regulatory reform in order to manage the turmoil and prevent a future crisis. One of the most important regulatory efforts to help cope with systemic risk and a financial crisis is the third version of the Basel Accord. Basel III has introduced some measures and tools (e.g., systemic risk buffer, countercyclical buffer, capital conservation buffer and liquidity risk) in order to mitigate systemic risk. Nevertheless, the effectiveness of these measures in Basel III in adequately addressing the problem of contagious runs that can quickly spread throughout the financial system is questionable. This paper seeks to contribute to the knowledge regarding the role of the Basel Accords in mitigating systemic risk. The research question is to what extent the Basel Accords can help control systemic risk in the financial markets? The paper tackles this question by analysing the concept of systemic risk. It will then examine the weaknesses of the Basel Accords before and after the Global financial crisis in 2008. Finally, it will suggest some possible solutions in order to improve the Basel Accord. The rationale of the study is the fact that academic works on systemic risk and financial crises are largely studied from economic or financial perspective. There is comparatively little research from the legal and regulatory perspective. The finding of the paper is that there are some problems in all of the three pillars of the Basel Accords. With regards to Pillar I, the risk model is excessively complex while the benefits of its complexity are doubtful. Concerning Pillar II, the effectiveness of the risk-based supervision in preventing systemic risk still depends largely upon its design and implementation. Factors such as organizational culture of the regulator and the political context within which the risk-based supervision operates might be a barrier against the success of Pillar II. Meanwhile, Pillar III could not provide adequate market discipline as market participants do not always act in a rational way. In addition, the too-big-to-fail perception reduced the incentives of the market participants to monitor risks. There has been some development in resolution measure (e.g. TLAC and MREL) which might potentially help strengthen the incentive of the market participants to monitor risks. However, those measures have some weaknesses. The paper argues that if the weaknesses in the three pillars are resolved, it can be expected that the Basel Accord could contribute to the mitigation of systemic risk in a more significant way in the future.

Keywords: Basel accords, financial regulation, risk-based supervision, systemic risk

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Authors: Gauri Sreekumar, Sabuj Kumar Mandal

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Contributing about 18% to India’s Gross Domestic Product, the agricultural sector plays a significant role in the Indian rural economy. Despite being the primary source of livelihood for more than half of India’s population, most of them are marginal and small farmers facing several challenges due to agro-climatic shocks. Climate change is expected to increase the risk in the regions that are highly agriculture dependent. With systematic and scientific evidence of changes in rainfall, temperature and other extreme climate events, migration started to emerge as a survival strategy for the farm households. In this backdrop, our present study aims to combine the two strands of literature and attempts to explore whether migration is the only adaptation strategy for the farmers once they experience crop failures due adverse climatic condition. Combining the temperature and rainfall information from the weather data provided by the Indian Meteorological Department with the household level panel data on Indian states belonging to the Eastern and Semi-Arid Tropics regions from the Village Dynamics in South Asia (VDSA) collected by the International Crop Research Institute for the Semi-arid Tropics, we form a rich panel data for the years 2010-2014. A Recursive Econometric Model is used to establish the three-way nexus between climate change-yield-migration while addressing the role of irrigation and local non-farm income diversification. Using Three Stage Least Squares Estimation method, we find that climate change induced yield loss is a major driver of farmers’ migration. However, irrigation and local level non-farm income diversification are found to mitigate the adverse impact of climate change on migration. Based on our empirical results, we suggest for enhancing irrigation facilities and making local non-farm income diversification opportunities available to increase farm productivity and thereby reduce farmers’ migration.

Keywords: climate change, migration, adaptation, mitigation

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Authors: Constâncio Augusto Machanguana

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The world over, resettling communities, for whatever purpose (mining, dams, forestry and wildlife management, roads, or facilitating services delivery), often leads to tensions between those resettled, the investors, and the local and national governments involved in the process. Causes include unclear government legislation and regulations, confusing Corporate Social Responsibility policies and guidelines, and other social-economic policies leading to unrealistic expectations among those being resettled, causing frustrations within the community, shifting them to any imminent conflict against the investors (company). The exploitation of heavy mineral sands along Mozambique’s long coastline and hinterland has not been providing a benefit for the affected communities. A case in point is the exploration, since 2018, of heavy sands in Chibuto District in the Southern Province of Gaza. A likely contributing factor is the standard type of socio-economic surveys and community involvement processes that could smooth the relationship among the parties. This research aims to investigate alternative processes to plan, initiate and guide resettlement processes in such a way that tensions and conflicts are avoided. Based on the process already finished, compared to similar cases along with the country, mixed methods to collect primary data were adopted: three focus groups of 125 people, representing 324 resettled householders; five semi-structured interviews with relevant stakeholders such as the local government, NGO’s and local leaders to understand their role in all stages of the process. The preliminary results show that the community has limited or no understanding of the potential impacts of these large-scale explorations, and the apparent harmony between the parties (community and company) may hide the dissatisfaction of those resettled. So, rather than focusing on negative mining impacts, the research contributes to science by identifying the best resettlement approach that can be replicated in other contexts along with the country in the actual context of the new discovery of mineral resources.

Keywords: conflict mitigation, resettlement, mining, Mozambique

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Authors: Remy Kulagowski, Tobias Sturm, Audrey Leopold, Aurelie Metay, Josephine Peigne, Alexis Thoumazeau, Alain Brauman, Bruno Fogliani, Florent Tivet

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A major challenge for agriculture is to enhance productivity while limiting the impact on the environment. Conservation agriculture (CA) is one strategy whereby both sustainability and productivity can be achieved by preserving and improving the soil quality. Soils provide and regulate a large number of ecosystem services (ES) such as agricultural productivity and climate change adaptation and mitigation. The aim of this study is to assess the impacts of contrasted CA crop management on soil functions for maize (Zea mays L.) cultivation in an eight years field experiment (2010-2018). The study included two CA practices: direct seeding in dead mulch (DM) and living mulch (LM), and conventional plough-based tillage (CT) practices on a fluvisol in New Caledonia (French Archipelago in the South Pacific). In 2018, soil quality of the cropping systems were evaluated with the Biofunctool® set of indicators, that consists in twelve integrative, in-field, and low-tech indicators assessing the biological, physical and chemical properties of soils. Main soil functions were evaluated including (i) carbon transformation, (ii) structure maintenance, and (iii) nutrient cycling in the ten first soil centimeters. The results showed significant higher score for soil structure maintenance (e.g., aggregate stability, water infiltration) and carbon transformation function (e.g., soil respiration, labile carbon) under CA in DM and LM when compared with CT. Score of carbon transformation index was higher in DM compared with LM. However, no significant effect of cropping systems was observed on nutrient cycling (i.e., nitrogen and phosphorus). In conclusion, the aggregated synthetic scores of soil multi-functions evaluated with Biofunctool® demonstrate that CA cropping systems lead to a better soil functioning. Further analysis of the results with agronomic performance of the soil-crop systems would allow to better understand the links between soil functioning and production ES of CA.

Keywords: conservation agriculture, cropping systems, ecosystem services, soil functions

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Authors: Wojciech Górecki, Anna Sowiżdżał, Grzegorz Machowski, Tomasz Maćkowski, Bartosz Papiernik, Michał Stefaniuk

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The article shows results of the project which aims at evaluating possibilities of effective development and exploitation of natural gas from argillaceous series of the Autochthonous Miocene in the Carpathian Foredeep. To achieve the objective, the research team develop a world-trend based but unique methodology of processing and interpretation, adjusted to data, local variations and petroleum characteristics of the area. In order to determine the zones in which maximum volumes of hydrocarbons might have been generated and preserved as shale gas reservoirs, as well as to identify the most preferable well sites where largest gas accumulations are anticipated a number of task were accomplished. Evaluation of petrophysical properties and hydrocarbon saturation of the Miocene complex is based on laboratory measurements as well as interpretation of well-logs and archival data. The studies apply mercury porosimetry (MICP), micro CT and nuclear magnetic resonance imaging (using the Rock Core Analyzer). For prospective location (e.g. central part of Carpathian Foredeep – Brzesko-Wojnicz area) reprocessing and reinterpretation of detailed seismic survey data with the use of integrated geophysical investigations has been made. Construction of quantitative, structural and parametric models for selected areas of the Carpathian Foredeep is performed on the basis of integrated, detailed 3D computer models. Modeling are carried on with the Schlumberger’s Petrel software. Finally, prospective zones are spatially contoured in a form of regional 3D grid, which will be framework for generation modelling and comprehensive parametric mapping, allowing for spatial identification of the most prospective zones of unconventional gas accumulation in the Carpathian Foredeep. Preliminary results of research works indicate a potentially prospective area for occurrence of unconventional gas accumulations in the Polish part of Carpathian Foredeep.

Keywords: autochthonous Miocene, Carpathian foredeep, Poland, shale gas

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Authors: Eva L. Suarez, Daniel E. Meeroff, Yan Yong

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Current flooding risk modeling focuses on resilience, defined as the probability of recovery from a severe flooding event. However, the long-term damage to property and well-being by nuisance flooding and its long-term effects on communities are not typically included in risk assessments. An approach was developed to address the probability of recovering from a severe flooding event combined with the probability of community performance during a nuisance event. A consolidated model, namely the conflation flooding recovery (&FR) model, evaluates risk-coping mitigation strategies for communities based on the recovery time from catastrophic events, such as hurricanes or extreme surges, and from everyday nuisance flooding events. The &FR model assesses the variation contribution of each independent input and generates a weighted output that favors the distribution with minimum variation. This approach is especially useful if the input distributions have dissimilar variances. The &FR is defined as a single distribution resulting from the product of the individual probability density functions. The resulting conflated distribution resides between the parent distributions, and it infers the recovery time required by a community to return to basic functions, such as power, utilities, transportation, and civil order, after a flooding event. The &FR model is more accurate than averaging individual observations before calculating the mean and variance or averaging the probabilities evaluated at the input values, which assigns the same weighted variation to each input distribution. The main disadvantage of these traditional methods is that the resulting measure of central tendency is exactly equal to the average of the input distribution’s means without the additional information provided by each individual distribution variance. When dealing with exponential distributions, such as resilience from severe flooding events and from nuisance flooding events, conflation results are equivalent to the weighted least squares method or best linear unbiased estimation. The combination of severe flooding risk with nuisance flooding improves flood risk management for highly populated coastal communities, such as in South Florida, USA, and provides a method to estimate community flood recovery time more accurately from two different sources, severe flooding events and nuisance flooding events.

Keywords: community resilience, conflation, flood risk, nuisance flooding

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Authors: Chow Jeng Hei, Pavel Tkalich, Low Kai Sheng Bryan

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Due to the growing demand for sustainability in the maritime industry, there has been a significant increase in focus on alternative fuels such as biofuels, liquefied natural gas (LNG), hydrogen, methanol and ammonia to reduce the carbon footprint of vessels. Alternative fuels offer efficient transportability and significantly reduce carbon dioxide emissions, a critical factor in combating global warming. In an era where the world is determined to tackle climate change, the utilization of methanol is projected to witness a consistent rise in demand, even during downturns in the oil and gas industry. Since 2022, there has been an increase in methanol loading and discharging operations for industrial use in Singapore. These operations were conducted across various storage tank terminals at Jurong Island of varying capacities, which are also used to store alternative fuels for bunkering requirements. The key objective of this research is to support the green shipping industries in the transformation to new fuels such as methanol and ammonia, especially in evolving the capability to inform risk assessment and management of spills. In the unlikely event of accidental spills, a highly reliable forecasting system must be in place to provide mitigation measures and ahead planning. The outcomes of this research would lead to an enhanced metocean prediction capability and, together with advanced sensing, will continuously build up a robust digital twin of the bunkering operating environment. Outputs from the developments will contribute to management strategies for alternative marine fuel spills, including best practices, safety challenges and crisis management. The outputs can also benefit key port operators and the various bunkering, petrochemicals, shipping, protection and indemnity, and emergency response sectors. The forecasted datasets provide a forecast of the expected atmosphere and hydrodynamic conditions prior to bunkering exercises, enabling a better understanding of the metocean conditions ahead and allowing for more refined spill incident management planning

Keywords: clean fuels, hydrodynamics, coastal engineering, impact assessments

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Authors: Jinlai Bian, Zailin Yang, Guanxixi Jiang, Xinzhu Li

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The problem of elastic wave propagation in inhomogeneous medium has always been a classic problem. Due to the frequent occurrence of earthquakes, many economic losses and casualties have been caused, therefore, to prevent earthquake damage to people and reduce damage, this paper studies the dynamic response around the circular inclusion in the whole space with inhomogeneous modulus, the inhomogeneity of the medium is reflected in the shear modulus of the medium with the spatial position, and the density is constant, this method can be used to solve the problem of the underground buried pipeline. Stress concentration phenomena are common in aerospace and earthquake engineering, and the dynamic stress concentration factor (DSCF) is one of the main factors leading to material damage, one of the important applications of the theory of elastic dynamics is to determine the stress concentration in the body with discontinuities such as cracks, holes, and inclusions. At present, the methods include wave function expansion method, integral transformation method, integral equation method and so on. Based on the complex function method, the Helmholtz equation with variable coefficients is standardized by using conformal transformation method and wave function expansion method, the displacement and stress fields in the whole space with circular inclusions are solved in the complex coordinate system, the unknown coefficients are solved by using boundary conditions, by comparing with the existing results, the correctness of this method is verified, based on the superiority of the complex variable function theory to the conformal transformation, this method can be extended to study the inclusion problem of arbitrary shapes. By solving the dynamic stress concentration factor around the inclusions, the influence of the inhomogeneous parameters of the medium and the wavenumber ratio of the inclusions to the matrix on the dynamic stress concentration factor is analyzed. The research results can provide some reference value for the evaluation of nondestructive testing (NDT), oil exploration, seismic monitoring, and soil-structure interaction.

Keywords: circular inclusions, complex variable function, dynamic stress concentration factor (DSCF), inhomogeneous medium

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Authors: Chuan-Ming Tung, Jin-Cheng Fu, Chia-En Feng

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In recent years, the rapid development of urban land in Taiwan has led to the constant increase of the areas of impervious surface, which has increased the risk of waterlogging during heavy rainfall. Therefore, in recent years, promoting runoff allocation responsibilities has often been used as a means of reducing regional flooding. In this study, the single catchment area covering both urban and rural land as the study area is discussed. Based on Storm Water Management Model, urban and rural land in a single catchment area was explored to develop the runoff allocation responsibilities according to their respective control regulation on land use. The impacts of runoff increment and reduction in sub-catchment area were studied to understand the impact of highly developed urban land on the reduction of flood risk of rural land at the back end. The results showed that the rainfall with 1 hour short delay of 2 years, 5 years, 10 years, and 25 years return period. If the study area was fully developed, the peak discharge at the outlet would increase by 24.46% -22.97% without runoff allocation responsibilities. The front-end urban land would increase runoff from back-end of rural land by 76.19% -46.51%. However, if runoff allocation responsibilities were carried out in the study area, the peak discharge could be reduced by 58.38-63.08%, which could make the front-end to reduce 54.05% -23.81% of the peak flow to the back-end. In addition, the researchers found that if it was seen from the perspective of runoff allocation responsibilities of per unit area, the residential area of urban land would benefit from the relevant laws and regulations of the urban system, which would have a better effect of reducing flood than the residential land in rural land. For rural land, the development scale of residential land was generally small, which made the effect of flood reduction better than that of industrial land. Agricultural land requires a large area of land, resulting in the lowest share of the flow per unit area. From the point of the planners, this study suggests that for the rural land around the city, its responsibility should be assigned to share the runoff. And setting up rain water storage facilities in the same way as urban land, can also take stock of agricultural land resources to increase the ridge of field for flood storage, in order to improve regional disaster reduction capacity and resilience.

Keywords: runoff allocation responsibilities, land use, flood mitigation, SWMM

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Authors: Varvara Roubtsova, Mohamed Chekired

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Recent studies on the numerical simulation of geotechnical problems show the importance of considering the soil micro-structure. At this scale, soil is a discrete particle medium where the particles can interact with each other and with water flow under external forces, structure loads or natural events. This paper presents research conducted in a virtual laboratory named SiGran, developed at IREQ (Institut de recherche d’Hydro-Quebec) for the purpose of investigating a broad range of problems encountered in geotechnics. Using Discrete Element Method (DEM), SiGran simulated granular materials directly by applying Newton’s laws to each particle. The water flow was simulated by using Marker and Cell method (MAC) to solve the full form of Navier-Stokes’s equation for non-compressible viscous liquid. In this paper, examples of numerical simulation and their comparisons with real experiments have been selected to show the complexity of geotechnical research at the micro level. These examples describe transient flows into a porous medium, interaction of particles in a viscous flow, compacting of saturated and unsaturated soils and the phenomenon of liquefaction under seismic load. They also provide an opportunity to present SiGran’s capacity to compute the distribution and evolution of energy by type (particle kinetic energy, particle internal elastic energy, energy dissipated by friction or as a result of viscous interaction into flow, and so on). This work also includes the first attempts to apply micro discrete results on a macro continuum level where the Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) method was used to resolve the system of governing equations. The material behavior equation is based on the results of simulations carried out at a micro level. The possibility of combining three methods (DEM, MAC and SPH) is discussed.

Keywords: discrete element method, marker and cell method, numerical simulation, multi-scale simulations, smoothed particle hydrodynamics

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Authors: Basma Yassa

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Evidence on cash transfers’ effectiveness in mitigating macro and idiosyncratic shocks’ impacts has been mixed and is mostly concentrated in Latin America, Sub-Saharan Africa, and South Asia with very limited evidence from the MENA region. Yet conditional cash transfers schemes have been continually used, especially in Egypt, as the main social protection tool in response to the recent socioeconomic crises and macro shocks. We use 2 panel datasets and 1 cross-sectional dataset to estimate the effectiveness of cash transfers as a shock-mitigative mechanism in the Egyptian context. In this paper, the results from the different models (Panel Fixed Effects model and the Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) model) confirm that micro and macro shocks lead to significant decline in several household-level welfare outcomes and that Takaful cash transfers have a significant positive impact in mitigating the negative shock impacts, especially on households’ debt incidence, debt levels, and asset ownership, but not necessarily on food, and non-food expenditure levels. The results indicate large positive significant effects on decreasing household incidence of debt by up to 12.4 percent and lowered the debt size by approximately 18 percent among Takaful beneficiaries compared to non-beneficiaries’. Similar evidence is found on asset ownership levels, as the RDD model shows significant positive effects on total asset ownership and productive asset ownership, but the model failed to detect positive impacts on per capita food and non-food expenditures. Further extensions are still in progress to compare the models’ results with the DID model results when using a nationally representative ELMPS panel data (2018/2024) rounds. Finally, our initial analysis suggests that conditional cash transfers are effective in buffering the negative shock impacts on certain welfare indicators even after successive macro-economic shocks in 2022 and 2023 in the Egyptian Context.

Keywords: cash transfers, fixed effects, household welfare, household debt, micro shocks, regression discontinuity design

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