Search results for: project management
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 12951

Search results for: project management

3381 Enhancing the Implementation Strategy of Simultaneous Operations (SIMOPS) for the Major Turnaround at Pertamina Plaju Refinery

Authors: Fahrur Rozi, Daniswara Krisna Prabatha, Latief Zulfikar Chusaini

Abstract:

Amidst the backdrop of Pertamina Plaju Refinery, which stands as the oldest and historically less technologically advanced among Pertamina's refineries, lies a unique challenge. Originally integrating facilities established by Shell in 1904 and Stanvac (originally Standard Oil) in 1926, the primary challenge at Plaju Refinery does not solely revolve around complexity; instead, it lies in ensuring reliability, considering its operational history of over a century. After centuries of existence, Plaju Refinery has never undergone a comprehensive major turnaround encompassing all its units. The usual practice involves partial turnarounds that are sequentially conducted across its primary, secondary, and tertiary units (utilities and offsite). However, a significant shift is on the horizon. In the Q-IV of 2023, the refinery embarks on its first-ever major turnaround since its establishment. This decision was driven by the alignment of maintenance timelines across various units. Plaju Refinery's major turnaround was scheduled for October-November 2023, spanning 45 calendar days, with the objective of enhancing the operational reliability of all refinery units. The extensive job list for this turnaround encompasses 1583 tasks across 18 units/areas, involving approximately 9000 contracted workers. In this context, the Strategy of Simultaneous Operations (SIMOPS) execution emerges as a pivotal tool to optimize time efficiency and ensure safety. A Hazard Effect Management Process (HEMP) has been employed to assess the risk ratings of each task within the turnaround. Out of the tasks assessed, 22 are deemed high-risk and necessitate mitigation. The SIMOPS approach serves as a preventive measure against potential incidents. It is noteworthy that every turnaround period at Pertamina Plaju Refinery involves SIMOPS-related tasks. In this context, enhancing the implementation strategy of "Simultaneous Operations (SIMOPS)" becomes imperative to minimize the occurrence of incidents. At least four improvements have been introduced in the enhancement process for the major turnaround at Refinery Plaju. The first improvement involves conducting systematic risk assessment and potential hazard mitigation studies for SIMOPS tasks before task execution, as opposed to the previous on-site approach. The second improvement includes the completion of SIMOPS Job Mitigation and Work Matrices Sheets, which was often neglected in the past. The third improvement emphasizes comprehensive awareness to workers/contractors regarding potential hazards and mitigation strategies for SIMOPS tasks before and during the major turnaround. The final improvement is the introduction of a daily program for inspecting and observing work in progress for SIMOPS tasks. Prior to these improvements, there was no established program for monitoring ongoing activities related to SIMOPS tasks during the turnaround. This study elucidates the steps taken to enhance SIMOPS within Pertamina, drawing from the experiences of Plaju Refinery as a guide. A real actual case study will be provided from our experience in the operational unit. In conclusion, these efforts are essential for the success of the first-ever major turnaround at Plaju Refinery, with the SIMOPS strategy serving as a central component. Based on these experiences, enhancements have been made to Pertamina's official Internal Guidelines for Executing SIMOPS Risk Mitigation, benefiting all Pertamina units.

Keywords: process safety management, turn around, oil refinery, risk assessment

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3380 Elasto-Viscoplastic Constitutive Modelling of Slow-Moving Landslides

Authors: Deepak Raj Bhat, Kazushige Hayashi, Yorihiro Tanaka, Shigeru Ogita, Akihiko Wakai

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Slow-moving landslides are one of the major natural disasters in mountainous regions. Therefore, study of the creep displacement behaviour of a landslide and associated geological and geotechnical issues seem important. This study has addressed and evaluated the slow-moving behaviour of landslide using the 2D-FEM based Elasto-viscoplastic constitutive model. To our based knowledge, two new control constitutive parameters were incorporated in the numerical model for the first time to better understand the slow-moving behaviour of a landslide. First, the predicted time histories of horizontal displacement of the landslide are presented and discussed, which may be useful for landslide displacement prediction in the future. Then, the simulation results of deformation pattern and shear strain pattern is presented and discussed. Moreover, the possible failure mechanism along the slip surface of such landslide is discussed based on the simulation results. It is believed that this study will be useful to understand the slow-moving behaviour of landslides, and at the same time, long-term monitoring and management of the landslide disaster will be much easier.

Keywords: numerical simulation, ground water fluctuations, elasto-viscoplastic model, slow-moving behaviour

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3379 Philippine Site Suitability Analysis for Biomass, Hydro, Solar, and Wind Renewable Energy Development Using Geographic Information System Tools

Authors: Jara Kaye S. Villanueva, M. Rosario Concepcion O. Ang

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For the past few years, Philippines has depended most of its energy source on oil, coal, and fossil fuel. According to the Department of Energy (DOE), the dominance of coal in the energy mix will continue until the year 2020. The expanding energy needs in the country have led to increasing efforts to promote and develop renewable energy. This research is a part of the government initiative in preparation for renewable energy development and expansion in the country. The Philippine Renewable Energy Resource Mapping from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) Surveys is a three-year government project which aims to assess and quantify the renewable energy potential of the country and to put them into usable maps. This study focuses on the site suitability analysis of the four renewable energy sources – biomass (coconut, corn, rice, and sugarcane), hydro, solar, and wind energy. The site assessment is a key component in determining and assessing the most suitable locations for the construction of renewable energy power plants. This method maximizes the use of both the technical methods in resource assessment, as well as taking into account the environmental, social, and accessibility aspect in identifying potential sites by utilizing and integrating two different methods: the Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) method and Geographic Information System (GIS) tools. For the MCDA, Analytical Hierarchy Processing (AHP) is employed to determine the parameters needed for the suitability analysis. To structure these site suitability parameters, various experts from different fields were consulted – scientists, policy makers, environmentalists, and industrialists. The need to have a well-represented group of people to consult with is relevant to avoid bias in the output parameter of hierarchy levels and weight matrices. AHP pairwise matrix computation is utilized to derive weights per level out of the expert’s gathered feedback. Whereas from the threshold values derived from related literature, international studies, and government laws, the output values were then consulted with energy specialists from the DOE. Geospatial analysis using GIS tools translate this decision support outputs into visual maps. Particularly, this study uses Euclidean distance to compute for the distance values of each parameter, Fuzzy Membership algorithm which normalizes the output from the Euclidean Distance, and the Weighted Overlay tool for the aggregation of the layers. Using the Natural Breaks algorithm, the suitability ratings of each of the map are classified into 5 discrete categories of suitability index: (1) not suitable (2) least suitable, (3) suitable, (4) moderately suitable, and (5) highly suitable. In this method, the classes are grouped based on the best groups similar values wherein each subdivision are set from the rest based on the big difference in boundary values. Results show that in the entire Philippine area of responsibility, biomass has the highest suitability rating with rice as the most suitable at 75.76% suitability percentage, whereas wind has the least suitability percentage with score 10.28%. Solar and Hydro fall in the middle of the two, with suitability values 28.77% and 21.27%.

Keywords: site suitability, biomass energy, hydro energy, solar energy, wind energy, GIS

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3378 Evaluating Antifungal Potential of Respiratory Inhibitors against Phyto-Pathogenic Fungi

Authors: Sehrish Iftikhar, Ahmad Ali Shahid, Kiran Nawaz, Waheed Anwar

Abstract:

Discovery and development of new compounds require intense studies in chemistry, biochemistry. Numerous experiments under laboratory-, greenhouse- and field conditions can be performed to select suitable candidates and to understand their full potential. Novel fungicides are fundamental to combat plant diseases. Fusarium solani is important plant pathogen. New broad spectrum foliar fungicides against complex II were designed in this study. Complex II, namely succinate dehydrogenase (SDH), or succinate quinone oxidoreductase (SQR) is a multi-subunit enzyme at the crossroads of TCA and ETC at the inner mitochondrial membrane. The need for new and innovative fungicides is driven by resistance management, regulatory hurdles and increasing customer expectations amongst others. Fungicidal activity was assessed for the effect on mycelial growth and spore germination of the fungi using fungicide amended media assay. In mycelial growth assay compounds C10 and C6 were highly active against all the isolates. The compounds C1 and C10 were found most potent in spore germination test. It fully proved that the SDHIs designed in this paper displayed as good inhibitory effects against Fusarium solani.

Keywords: Wilt, Fusarium, SDH, antifungal

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3377 Collision Avoidance Maneuvers for Vessels Navigating through Traffic Separation Scheme

Authors: Aswin V. J., Sreeja S., R. Harikumar

Abstract:

Ship collision is one of the major concerns while navigating in the ocean. In congested sea routes where there are hectic offshore operations, ships are often forced to take close encounter maneuvers. Maritime rules for preventing collision at sea are defined in the International Regulations for Preventing Collision at Sea. Traffic Separation Schemes (TSS) are traffic management route systems ruled by International Maritime Organization (IMO), where the traffic lanes indicate the general direction of traffic flow. The Rule 10 of International Regulations for Preventing Collision at Sea prescribes the conduct of vessels while navigating through TSS. But no quantitative criteria regarding the procedures to detect and evaluate collision risk is specified in International Regulations for Preventing Collision at Sea. Most of the accidents that occur are due to operational errors affected by human factors such as lack of experience and loss of situational awareness. In open waters, the traffic density is less when compared to that in TSS, and hence the vessels can be operated in autopilot mode. A collision avoidance method that uses the possible obstacle trajectories in advance to predict “collision occurrence” and can generate suitable maneuvers for collision avoidance is presented in this paper. The suitable course and propulsion changes that can be used in a TSS considering International Regulations for Preventing Collision at Sea are found out for various obstacle scenarios.

Keywords: collision avoidance, maneuvers, obstacle trajectories, traffic separation scheme

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3376 Factors Influencing the Development and Implementation of Radiology Technologist Specialist Role in Image Interpretation in Sudan

Authors: Awad Elkhadir, Rajab M. Ben Yousef

Abstract:

Introduction: The production of high-quality medical images by radiology technologists is useful in diagnosing and treating various injuries and diseases. However, the factors affecting the role of radiology technologists in image interpretation in Sudan have not been investigated widely. Methods: Cross-sectional study has been employed by recruiting ten radiology college deans in Sudan. The questionnaire was distributed online, and obtained data were analyzed using Microsoft Excel and IBM-SPSS version 16.0 to generate descriptive statistics. Results: The study results have shown that half of the deans were doubtful about the readiness of Sudan to implement the role of radiology technologist specialist in image interpretation. The majority of them (60%) believed that this issue had been most strongly pushed by researchers over the past decade. The factors affecting the implementation of the radiology technologist specialist role in image interpretation included; education/training (100%), recognition (30%), technical issues (30%), people-related issues (20%), management changes (30%), government role (30%), costs (10%), and timings (20%). Conclusion: The study concluded that there is a need for a change in image interpretation by radiology technologists in Sudan.

Keywords: development, image interpretation, implementation, radiology technologist specialist, Sudan

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3375 An Exploratory Analysis of Brisbane's Commuter Travel Patterns Using Smart Card Data

Authors: Ming Wei

Abstract:

Over the past two decades, Location Based Service (LBS) data have been increasingly applied to urban and transportation studies due to their comprehensiveness and consistency. However, compared to other LBS data including mobile phone data, GPS and social networking platforms, smart card data collected from public transport users have arguably yet to be fully exploited in urban systems analysis. By using five weekdays of passenger travel transaction data taken from go card – Southeast Queensland’s transit smart card – this paper analyses the spatiotemporal distribution of passenger movement with regard to the land use patterns in Brisbane. Work and residential places for public transport commuters were identified after extracting journeys-to-work patterns. Our results show that the locations of the workplaces identified from the go card data and residential suburbs are largely consistent with those that were marked in the land use map. However, the intensity for some residential locations in terms of population or commuter densities do not match well between the map and those derived from the go card data. This indicates that the misalignment between residential areas and workplaces to a certain extent, shedding light on how enhancements to service management and infrastructure expansion might be undertaken.

Keywords: big data, smart card data, travel pattern, land use

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3374 Forecasting the Sea Level Change in Strait of Hormuz

Authors: Hamid Goharnejad, Amir Hossein Eghbali

Abstract:

Recent investigations have demonstrated the global sea level rise due to climate change impacts. In this study climate changes study the effects of increasing water level in the strait of Hormuz. The probable changes of sea level rise should be investigated to employ the adaption strategies. The climatic output data of a GCM (General Circulation Model) named CGCM3 under climate change scenario of A1b and A2 were used. Among different variables simulated by this model, those of maximum correlation with sea level changes in the study region and least redundancy among themselves were selected for sea level rise prediction by using stepwise regression. One models of Discrete Wavelet artificial Neural Network (DWNN) was developed to explore the relationship between climatic variables and sea level changes. In these models, wavelet was used to disaggregate the time series of input and output data into different components and then ANN was used to relate the disaggregated components of predictors and predictands to each other. The results showed in the Shahid Rajae Station for scenario A1B sea level rise is among 64 to 75 cm and for the A2 Scenario sea level rise is among 90 to 105 cm. Furthermore the result showed a significant increase of sea level at the study region under climate change impacts, which should be incorporated in coastal areas management.

Keywords: climate change scenarios, sea-level rise, strait of Hormuz, forecasting

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3373 Teaching Children about Their Brains: Evaluating the Role of Neuroscience Undergraduates in Primary School Education

Authors: Clea Southall

Abstract:

Many children leave primary school having formed preconceptions about their relationship with science. Thus, primary school represents a critical window for stimulating scientific interest in younger children. Engagement relies on the provision of hands-on activities coupled with an ability to capture a child’s innate curiosity. This requires children to perceive science topics as interesting and relevant to their everyday life. Teachers and pupils alike have suggested the school curriculum be tailored to help stimulate scientific interest. Young children are naturally inquisitive about the human body; the brain is one topic which frequently engages pupils, although it is not currently included in the UK primary curriculum. Teaching children about the brain could have wider societal impacts such as increasing knowledge of neurological disorders. However, many primary school teachers do not receive formal neuroscience training and may feel apprehensive about delivering lessons on the nervous system. This is exacerbated by a lack of educational neuroscience resources. One solution is for undergraduates to form partnerships with schools - delivering engaging lessons and supplementing teacher knowledge. The aim of this project was to evaluate the success of a short lesson on the brain delivered by an undergraduate neuroscientist to primary school pupils. Prior to entering schools, semi-structured online interviews were conducted with teachers to gain pedagogical advice and relevant websites were searched for neuroscience resources. Subsequently, a single lesson plan was created comprising of four hands-on activities. The activities were devised in a top-down manner, beginning with learning about the brain as an entity, before focusing on individual neurons. Students were asked to label a ‘brain map’ to assess prior knowledge of brain structure and function. They viewed animal brains and created ‘pipe-cleaner neurons’ which were later used to depict electrical transmission. The same session was delivered by an undergraduate student to 570 key stage 2 (KS2) pupils across five schools in Leeds, UK. Post-session surveys, designed for teachers and pupils respectively, were used to evaluate the session. Children in all year groups had relatively poor knowledge of brain structure and function at the beginning of the session. When asked to label four brain regions with their respective functions, older pupils labeled a mean of 1.5 (± 1.0) brain regions compared to 0.8 (± 0.96) for younger pupils (p=0.002). However, by the end of the session, 95% of pupils felt their knowledge of the brain had increased. Hands-on activities were rated most popular by pupils and were considered the most successful aspect of the session by teachers. Although only half the teachers were aware of neuroscience educational resources, nearly all (95%) felt they would have more confidence in teaching a similar session in the future. All teachers felt the session was engaging and that the content could be linked to the current curriculum. Thus, a short fifty-minute session can successfully enhance pupils’ knowledge of a new topic: the brain. Partnerships with an undergraduate student can provide an alternative method for supplementing teacher knowledge, increasing their confidence in delivering future lessons on the nervous system.

Keywords: education, neuroscience, primary school, undergraduate

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3372 Assessing the Use of Biomedicine in Nigeria: A Case Study of IDO and Northwest Local Government Areas of Ibadan, Nigeria

Authors: Adeyemi A. Ajisebiolola

Abstract:

This study examined people’s responses to demand and consumption of herbal medicines in Nigeria. It also assessed people’s evaluation of the effectiveness of the existing medicines on the treatment of ailments and encouraging forest products utilization for greener future in terms of healthcare delivery. Two Local Government Areas, namely Ido and Ibadan Northwest were adopted for the study; Ido is characterized by rural populace and Ibadan Northwest by urban populace. Out of 500 questionnaires randomly administered to the households in the two local government areas of study, 481 (96.2%) were recovered. Statistical analysis employed showed that people were beginning to understand the importance of herbal medicines in Nigeria as majority of the households use herbal medicines to treat various ailments. Among the major problems encountered by the respondents are lack of precise dosage and adequate preservation methods. It was recommended that Forestry Research Institutes in Nigeria should be deeply involved in the findings on medicinal plants, package them into products and make them available to the society for sustainable healthcare management and greener future of the nation.

Keywords: demand and consumption, forest products, herbal medicines, Nigeria

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3371 Admission Control Policy for Remanufacturing Activities with Quality Variation of Returns

Authors: Sajjad Farahani, Wilkistar Otieno, Xiaohang Yue

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This paper develops a model for the optimal disposition decision for product returns in a remanufacturing system with limited recoverable inventory capacity. In this model, a constant demand is satisfied by remanufacturing returned products which are up to the minimum required quality grade. The quality grade of returned products is uncertain and remanufacturing cost increases as the quality level decreases, and remanufacturer wishes to determine which returned product to accept to be remanufactured for reselling, and any unaccepted returns may be salvaged at a value that increases with their quality level. Accepted returns can be stocked for remanufacturing upon demand requests, but incur a holding cost. A Markov decision problem is formulated in order to evaluate various performance measures for this system and obtain the optimal remanufacturing policy. A detailed numerical study reveals that our approach to the disposition problem outperforms the current industrial practice ignoring quality grade of returned products. In addition, we identify conditions under which this improvement is the highest.

Keywords: green supply chain management, matrix geometric method, production recovery, reverse supply chains

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3370 Instructional Leadership and Competency in Capacity Development among Principals: A Mediation with Self Efficacy in Moderate Performing Schools

Authors: Mohd Ibrahim K. Azeez, Mohammed Sani Ibrahim, Rosemawati Mustapa, Maisarah A. Malik, Chandrakala Varatharajoo, Wee Akina Sia Seng Lee

Abstract:

The leadership of the principals is known to be a key indicator in development and school performance. Therefore, this study was undertaken to assess the extent of the influence of instructional leadership in the field of supervision and curriculum focus on capacity development competence in the field of communication and teamwork. In addition, this study also examines self-efficacy mediator school leadership in the field of self-improvement and self-management of school principals. The study involved 383 guest teachers from 55 secondary schools for leadership in schools. Data was analyzed using SEM aid program AMOS 21. The final result shows partial mediation model was the best model fit to obtain the best goodness of fit of (X2/df = 4.663, CFI = 0.922, GFI = 0.778, TLI = 0914, NFI = 0.903, and RMSEA = 0.098) compared to the direct effect model of the findings (X2/df = 5.319, CFI = 0.908, GFI = 0755, TLI = 0.899, NFI = 0.889, and RMSEA = 0.106). While the findings of the fully mediator model with a self-efficacy refers principals as a mediator as follows (X2/df = 4.838, CFI = 0918, GFI = 0772, TLI = 0.910, NFI = 0.899, and RMSEA = 0.100). Therefore, it can be concluded that the findings clearly demonstrate self-efficacy variables principals become a mediator in the relationship between instructional leadership capacity and competency development.

Keywords: instructional leadership, capacity development, self-efficacy, competency

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3369 Machine Learning in Momentum Strategies

Authors: Yi-Min Lan, Hung-Wen Cheng, Hsuan-Ling Chang, Jou-Ping Yu

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The study applies machine learning models to construct momentum strategies and utilizes the information coefficient as an indicator for selecting stocks with strong and weak momentum characteristics. Through this approach, the study has built investment portfolios capable of generating superior returns and conducted a thorough analysis. Compared to existing research on momentum strategies, machine learning is incorporated to capture non-linear interactions. This approach enhances the conventional stock selection process, which is often impeded by difficulties associated with timeliness, accuracy, and efficiency due to market risk factors. The study finds that implementing bidirectional momentum strategies outperforms unidirectional ones, and momentum factors with longer observation periods exhibit stronger correlations with returns. Optimizing the number of stocks in the portfolio while staying within a certain threshold leads to the highest level of excess returns. The study presents a novel framework for momentum strategies that enhances and improves the operational aspects of asset management. By introducing innovative financial technology applications to traditional investment strategies, this paper can demonstrate significant effectiveness.

Keywords: information coefficient, machine learning, momentum, portfolio, return prediction

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3368 Influence of Age and Religion on Sexual Behaviours of Undergraduates in Southwest, Nigeria

Authors: Tosin Emmanuel Akinduyo, F. O. Ojewola

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This study investigated the influence of age and religion on the sexual behaviours of undergraduates in southwest Nigeria. The aim of this study is to examine the sexual behaviour of undergraduates based on moderating variables of age and religion. The research design was a descriptive research design of the survey type. The sample for the study was 1,200 undergraduates selected through a multi-stage sampling procedure. A self-constructed questionnaire titled “Sexual Behaviours Questionnaire” (SBCUQ) with Pearson reliability (r) of 0.68 was used to elicit information from the respondents. Two research questions were answered using frequency count, percentage, means, and standard deviation. The two hypotheses were tested using t-test and ANOVA. Where the result of ANOVA showed a significant difference, the Scheffe Posthoc test was used to show where the significant difference (s) occurred. The findings of the study revealed that age and religion influenced undergraduates’ sexual behaviour. Based on the findings, the government at all tiers, in collaboration with the university management, should introduce sex education as a course to enlighten undergraduates and inform them of moderation needed as expected in their sexual expressions. Professional counsellors and religious organizations should always line up seminars and workshops for undergraduates on acceptable engagement in their sexual behaviours.

Keywords: age, religion, sexual behaviuors, undergraduates

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3367 New Approach for Minimizing Wavelength Fragmentation in Wavelength-Routed WDM Networks

Authors: Sami Baraketi, Jean Marie Garcia, Olivier Brun

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Wavelength Division Multiplexing (WDM) is the dominant transport technology used in numerous high capacity backbone networks, based on optical infrastructures. Given the importance of costs (CapEx and OpEx) associated to these networks, resource management is becoming increasingly important, especially how the optical circuits, called “lightpaths”, are routed throughout the network. This requires the use of efficient algorithms which provide routing strategies with the lowest cost. We focus on the lightpath routing and wavelength assignment problem, known as the RWA problem, while optimizing wavelength fragmentation over the network. Wavelength fragmentation poses a serious challenge for network operators since it leads to the misuse of the wavelength spectrum, and then to the refusal of new lightpath requests. In this paper, we first establish a new Integer Linear Program (ILP) for the problem based on a node-link formulation. This formulation is based on a multilayer approach where the original network is decomposed into several network layers, each corresponding to a wavelength. Furthermore, we propose an efficient heuristic for the problem based on a greedy algorithm followed by a post-treatment procedure. The obtained results show that the optimal solution is often reached. We also compare our results with those of other RWA heuristic methods.

Keywords: WDM, lightpath, RWA, wavelength fragmentation, optimization, linear programming, heuristic

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3366 Molecular Screening of Piroplasm from Ticks Collected from Sialkot, Gujranwala and Gujarat Districts of Punjab, Pakistan

Authors: Mahvish Maqbool, Muhmmad Sohail Sajid

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Ticks (Acari: Ixodidae); bloodsucking parasites of domestic animals, have significant importance in the transmission of diseases and causing huge economic losses. This study aimed to screen endophilic ticks for the Piroplasms using polymerase chain reaction in three districts Sialkot, Gujranwala and Gujarat of Punjab, Pakistan. Ticks were dissected under a stereomicroscope, and internal organs (midguts& salivary glands) were procured to generate pools of optimum weights. DNA extraction was done through standard protocol followed by primer specific PCR for Piroplasma spp. A total of 22.95% tick pools were found positive for piroplasma spp. In districts, Sialkot and Gujranwala Piroplasma prevalence are higher in riverine animals while in Gujarat Prevalence is higher in non-riverine animals. Female animals were found more prone to piroplasma as compared to males. This study will provide useful data on the distribution of Piroplasma in the vector population of the study area and devise future recommendations for better management of ruminants to avoid subclinical and clinical infections and vector transmitted diseases.

Keywords: babesia, hyalomma, piroplasmposis, tick infectivity

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3365 A Multi-Model Approach to Assess Atlantic Bonito (Sarda Sarda, Bloch 1793) in the Eastern Atlantic Ocean: A Case Study of the Senegalese Exclusive Economic Zone

Authors: Ousmane Sarr

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The Senegalese coasts have high productivity of fishery resources due to the frequency of intense up-welling system that occurs along its coast, caused by the maritime trade winds making its waters nutrients rich. Fishing plays a primordial role in Senegal's socioeconomic plans and food security. However, a global diagnosis of the Senegalese maritime fishing sector has highlighted the challenges this sector encounters. Among these concerns, some significant stocks, a priority target for artisanal fishing, need further assessment. If no efforts are made in this direction, most stock will be overexploited or even in decline. It is in this context that this research was initiated. This investigation aimed to apply a multi-modal approach (LBB, Catch-only-based CMSY model and its most recent version (CMSY++); JABBA, and JABBA-Select) to assess the stock of Atlantic bonito, Sarda sarda (Bloch, 1793) in the Senegalese Exclusive Economic Zone (SEEZ). Available catch, effort, and size data from Atlantic bonito over 15 years (2004-2018) were used to calculate the nominal and standardized CPUE, size-frequency distribution, and length at retentions (50 % and 95 % selectivity) of the species. These relevant results were employed as input parameters for stock assessment models mentioned above to define the stock status of this species in this region of the Atlantic Ocean. The LBB model indicated an Atlantic bonito healthy stock status with B/BMSY values ranging from 1.3 to 1.6 and B/B0 values varying from 0.47 to 0.61 of the main scenarios performed (BON_AFG_CL, BON_GN_Length, and BON_PS_Length). The results estimated by LBB are consistent with those obtained by CMSY. The CMSY model results demonstrate that the SEEZ Atlantic bonito stock is in a sound condition in the final year of the main scenarios analyzed (BON, BON-bt, BON-GN-bt, and BON-PS-bt) with sustainable relative stock biomass (B2018/BMSY = 1.13 to 1.3) and fishing pressure levels (F2018/FMSY= 0.52 to 1.43). The B/BMSY and F/FMSY results for the JABBA model ranged between 2.01 to 2.14 and 0.47 to 0.33, respectively. In contrast, The estimated B/BMSY and F/FMSY for JABBA-Select ranged from 1.91 to 1.92 and 0.52 to 0.54. The Kobe plots results of the base case scenarios ranged from 75% to 89% probability in the green area, indicating sustainable fishing pressure and an Atlantic bonito healthy stock size capable of producing high yields close to the MSY. Based on the stock assessment results, this study highlighted scientific advice for temporary management measures. This study suggests an improvement of the selectivity parameters of longlines and purse seines and a temporary prohibition of the use of sleeping nets in the fishery for the Atlantic bonito stock in the SEEZ based on the results of the length-base models. Although these actions are temporary, they can be essential to reduce or avoid intense pressure on the Atlantic bonito stock in the SEEZ. However, it is necessary to establish harvest control rules to provide coherent and solid scientific information that leads to appropriate decision-making for rational and sustainable exploitation of Atlantic bonito in the SEEZ and the Eastern Atlantic Ocean.

Keywords: multi-model approach, stock assessment, atlantic bonito, healthy stock, sustainable, SEEZ, temporary management measures

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3364 (Anti)Depressant Effects of Non-Steroidal Antiinflammatory Drugs in Mice

Authors: Horia Păunescu

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Purpose: The study aimed to assess the depressant or antidepressant effects of several Nonsteroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drugs (NSAIDs) in mice: the selective cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) inhibitor meloxicam, and the non-selective COX-1 and COX-2 inhibitors lornoxicam, sodium metamizole, and ketorolac. The current literature data regarding such effects of these agents are scarce. Materials and methods: The study was carried out on NMRI mice weighing 20-35 g, kept in a standard laboratory environment. The study was approved by the Ethics Committee of the University of Medicine and Pharmacy „Carol Davila”, Bucharest. The study agents were injected intraperitoneally, 10 mL/kg body weight (bw) 1 hour before the assessment of the locomotor activity by cage testing (n=10 mice/ group) and 2 hours before the forced swimming tests (n=15). The study agents were dissolved in normal saline (meloxicam, sodium metamizole), ethanol 11.8% v/v in normal saline (ketorolac), or water (lornoxicam), respectively. Negative and positive control agents were also given (amitryptilline in the forced swimming test). The cage floor used in the locomotor activity assessment was divided into 20 equal 10 cm squares. The forced swimming test involved partial immersion of the mice in cylinders (15/9cm height/diameter) filled with water (10 cm depth at 28C), where they were left for 6 minutes. The cage endpoint used in the locomotor activity assessment was the number of treaded squares. Four endpoints were used in the forced swimming test (immobility latency for the entire 6 minutes, and immobility, swimming, and climbing scores for the final 4 minutes of the swimming session), recorded by an observer that was "blinded" to the experimental design. The statistical analysis used the Levene test for variance homogeneity, ANOVA and post-hoc analysis as appropriate, Tukey or Tamhane tests.Results: No statistically significant increase or decrease in the number of treaded squares was seen in the locomotor activity assessment of any mice group. In the forced swimming test, amitryptilline showed an antidepressant effect in each experiment, at the 10 mg/kg bw dosage. Sodium metamizole was depressant at 100 mg/kg bw (increased the immobility score, p=0.049, Tamhane test), but not in lower dosages as well (25 and 50 mg/kg bw). Ketorolac showed an antidepressant effect at the intermediate dosage of 5 mg/kg bw, but not so in the dosages of 2.5 and 10 mg/kg bw, respectively (increased the swimming score, p=0.012, Tamhane test). Meloxicam and lornoxicam did not alter the forced swimming endpoints at any dosage level. Discussion: 1) Certain NSAIDs caused changes in the forced swimming patterns without interfering with locomotion. 2) Sodium metamizole showed a depressant effect, whereas ketorolac proved antidepressant. Conclusion: NSAID-induced mood changes are not class effects of these agents and apparently are independent of the type of inhibited cyclooxygenase (COX-1 or COX-2). Disclosure: This paper was co-financed from the European Social Fund, through the Sectorial Operational Programme Human Resources Development 2007-2013, project number POSDRU /159 /1.5 /S /138907 "Excellence in scientific interdisciplinary research, doctoral and postdoctoral, in the economic, social and medical fields -EXCELIS", coordinator The Bucharest University of Economic Studies.

Keywords: antidepressant, depressant, forced swim, NSAIDs

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3363 The Implementation of the European Landscape Convention in Turkey: Opportunities and Constraints

Authors: Tutku Ak, Abdullah Kelkit, Cihad Öztürk

Abstract:

An increase has been witnessed with the number of multinational environmental agreements in the past decade, particularly in Europe. Success with implementation, however, shows variation. While many countries are willing to join these agreements, they do not always fully honor their obligations to put their commitments into practice. One reason for this is that countries have different legal and administrative systems. One example of an international multilateral environmental agreement is the European Landscape Convention (ELC). ELC expresses a concern to achieve sustainable development based on a balanced and harmonious relationship between social needs, economic activity, and the environment. Member states are required to implement the convention in accordance with their own administrative structure, respecting subsidiarity. In particular, the importance of cooperation in the protection, management, and planning of the resources is expressed through the convention. In this paper, it is intended to give a broad view of ELC’s implementation process in Turkey and what factors have influenced by the process. Under this context, the paper will focus on the objectives of the convention for addressing the issue of the loss of European landscapes, and the justification and tools used to accomplish these objectives. The degree to which these objectives have been implemented in Turkey and the opportunities and constraints that have been faced during this process have been discussed.

Keywords: European landscape convention, implementation, multinational environmental agreements, policy tools

Procedia PDF Downloads 274
3362 Pupils' and Teachers' Perceptions and Experiences of Welsh Language Instruction

Authors: Mirain Rhys, Kevin Smith

Abstract:

In 2017, the Welsh Government introduced an ambitious, new strategy to increase the number of Welsh speakers in Wales to 1 million by 2050. The Welsh education system is a vitally important feature of this strategy. All children attending state schools in Wales learn Welsh as a second language until the age of 16 and are assessed at General Certificate of Secondary Education (GCSE) level. In 2013, a review of Welsh second language instruction in Key Stages 3 and 4 was completed. The report identified considerable gaps in teachers’ preparation and training for teaching Welsh; poor Welsh language ethos at many schools; and a general lack of resources to support the instruction of Welsh. Recommendations were made across a number of dimensions including curriculum content, pedagogical practice, and teacher assessment, training, and resources. With a new national curriculum currently in development, this study builds on this review and provides unprecedented detail into pupils’ and teachers’ perceptions of Welsh language instruction. The current research built on data taken from an existing capacity building research project on Welsh education, the Wales multi-cohort study (WMS). Quantitative data taken from WMS surveys with over 1200 pupils in schools in Wales indicated that Welsh language lessons were the least enjoyable subject among pupils. The current research aimed to unpick pupil experiences in order to add to the policy development context. To achieve this, forty-four pupils and four teachers in three schools from the larger WMS sample participated in focus groups. Participants from years 9, 11 and 13 who had indicated positive, negative and neutral attitudes towards the Welsh language in a previous WMS survey were selected. Questions were based on previous research exploring issues including, but not limited to pedagogy, policy, assessment, engagement and (teacher) training. A thematic analysis of the focus group recordings revealed that the majority of participants held positive views around keeping the language alive but did not want to take on responsibility for its maintenance. These views were almost entirely based on their experiences of learning Welsh at school, especially in relation to their perceived lack of choice and opinions around particular lesson strategies and assessment. Analysis of teacher interviews highlighted a distinct lack of resources (materials and staff alike) compared to modern foreign languages, which had a negative impact on student motivation and attitudes. Both staff and students indicated a need for more practical, oral language instruction which could lead to Welsh being used outside the classroom. The data corroborate many of the review’s previous findings, but what makes this research distinctive is the way in which pupils poignantly address generally misguided aims for Welsh language instruction, poor pedagogical practice and a general disconnect between Welsh instruction and its daily use in their lives. These findings emphasize the complexity of incorporating the educational sector in strategies for Welsh language maintenance and the complications arising from pedagogical training, support, and resources, as well as teacher and pupil perceptions of, and attitudes towards, teaching and learning Welsh.

Keywords: bilingual education, language maintenance, language revitalisation, minority languages, Wales

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3361 Combustion Variability and Uniqueness in Cylinders of a Radial Aircraft Piston Engine

Authors: Michal Geca, Grzegorz Baranski, Ksenia Siadkowska

Abstract:

The work is a part of the project which aims at developing innovative power and control systems for the high power aircraft piston engine ASz62IR. Developed electronically controlled ignition system will reduce emissions of toxic compounds as a result of lowered fuel consumption, optimized combustion and engine capability of efficient combustion of ecological fuels. The tested unit is an air-cooled four-stroke gasoline engine of 9 cylinders in a radial setup, mechanically charged by a radial compressor powered by the engine crankshaft. The total engine cubic capac-ity is 29.87 dm3, and the compression ratio is 6.4:1. The maximum take-off power is 1000 HP at 2200 rpm. The maximum fuel consumption is 280 kg/h. Engine powers aircrafts: An-2, M-18 „Dromader”, DHC-3 „OTTER”, DC-3 „Dakota”, GAF-125 „HAWK” i Y5. The main problems of the engine includes the imbalanced work of cylinders. The non-uniformity value in each cylinder results in non-uniformity of their work. In radial engine cylinders arrangement causes that the mixture movement that takes place in accordance (lower cylinder) or the opposite (upper cylinders) to the direction of gravity. Preliminary tests confirmed the presence of uneven workflow of individual cylinders. The phenomenon is most intense at low speed. The non-uniformity is visible on the waveform of cylinder pressure. Therefore two studies were conducted to determine the impact of this phenomenon on the engine performance: simulation and real tests. Simplified simulation was conducted on the element of the intake system coated with fuel film. The study shows that there is an effect of gravity on the movement of the fuel film inside the radial engine intake channels. Both in the lower and the upper inlet channels the film flows downwards. It follows from the fact that gravity assists the movement of the film in the lower cylinder channels and prevents the movement in the upper cylinder channels. Real tests on aircraft engine ASz62IR was conducted in transients condition (rapid change of the excess air in each cylinder were performed. Calculations were conducted for mass of fuel reaching the cylinders theoretically and really and on this basis, the factors of fuel evaporation “x” were determined. Therefore a simplified model of the fuel supply to cylinder was adopted. Model includes time constant of the fuel film τ, the number of engine transport cycles of non-evaporating fuel along the intake pipe γ and time between next cycles Δt. The calculation results of identification of the model parameters are presented in the form of radar graphs. The figures shows the averages declines and increases of the injection time and the average values for both types of stroke. These studies shown, that the change of the position of the cylinder will cause changes in the formation of fuel-air mixture and thus changes in the combustion process. Based on the results of the work of simulation and experiments was possible to develop individual algorithms for ignition control. This work has been financed by the Polish National Centre for Research and Development, INNOLOT, under Grant Agreement No. INNOLOT/I/1/NCBR/2013.

Keywords: radial engine, ignition system, non-uniformity, combustion process

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3360 Accounting Knowledge Management and Value Creation of SME in Chatuchak Market: Case Study Ceramics Product

Authors: Runglaksamee Rodkam

Abstract:

The purpose of this research was to study the influence of accountants’ potential performance on their working process, a case study of Government Savings Banks in the northeast of Thailand. The independent variables included accounting knowledge, accounting skill, accounting value, accounting ethics, and accounting attitude, while the dependent variable included the success of the working process. A total of 155 accountants working for Government Savings Banks were selected by random sampling. A questionnaire was used as a tool for collecting data. Descriptive statistics in this research included percentage, mean, and multiple regression analyses. The findings revealed that the majority of accountants were female with an age between 35-40 years old. Most of the respondents had an undergraduate degree with ten years of experience. Moreover, the factors of accounting knowledge, accounting skill, accounting a value and accounting ethics and accounting attitude were rated at a high level. The findings from regression analysis of observation data revealed a causal relationship in that the observation data could explain at least 51 percent of the success in the accountants’ working process.

Keywords: influence, potential performance, success, working process

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3359 Evaluation of the Efficiency of Intelligent Systems in Traffic Congestion Pricing Schemes in Urban Streets

Authors: Saeed Sayyad Hagh Shomar

Abstract:

Traffic congestion pricing as one of the demand management strategies constrains expenditure to network users so that it helps reduction in traffic congestion and environment pollution like air pollution. Despite the development of congestion pricing schemes for traffic in our country, the matters of traditional toll collection, drivers’ waste of time and delay in traffic are still widespread. Electronic toll collection as a part of the intelligent transportation system provides the possibility of collecting tolls without car-stop and traffic disruption. Unlike the satisfying outcomes of using intelligent systems in congestion pricing schemes, implementation costs and technological problems are the barriers in these schemes. In this research first, a variety of electronic pay toll systems and their components are introduced then their functional usage is discussed. In the following, by analyzing and comparing the barriers, limitations and advantages, the selection criteria of intelligent systems are described and the results show that the choice of the best technology depends on the various parameters which, by examining them, it is concluded that in a long-term run and by providing the necessary conditions, DSRC technology as the main system in the schemes and ANPR as a major backup system of the main one can be employed.

Keywords: congestion pricing, electronic toll collection, intelligent systems, technology, traffic

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3358 Mathematics Professional Development: Uptake and Impacts on Classroom Practice

Authors: Karen Koellner, Nanette Seago, Jennifer Jacobs, Helen Garnier

Abstract:

Although studies of teacher professional development (PD) are prevalent, surprisingly most have only produced incremental shifts in teachers’ learning and their impact on students. There is a critical need to understand what teachers take up and use in their classroom practice after attending PD and why we often do not see greater changes in learning and practice. This paper is based on a mixed methods efficacy study of the Learning and Teaching Geometry (LTG) video-based mathematics professional development materials. The extent to which the materials produce a beneficial impact on teachers’ mathematics knowledge, classroom practices, and their students’ knowledge in the domain of geometry through a group-randomized experimental design are considered. Included is a close-up examination of a small group of teachers to better understand their interpretations of the workshops and their classroom uptake. The participants included 103 secondary mathematics teachers serving grades 6-12 from two US states in different regions. Randomization was conducted at the school level, with 23 schools and 49 teachers assigned to the treatment group and 18 schools and 54 teachers assigned to the comparison group. The case study examination included twelve treatment teachers. PD workshops for treatment teachers began in Summer 2016. Nine full days of professional development were offered to teachers, beginning with the one-week institute (Summer 2016) and four days of PD throughout the academic year. The same facilitator-led all of the workshops, after completing a facilitator preparation process that included a multi-faceted assessment of fidelity. The overall impact of the LTG PD program was assessed from multiple sources: two teacher content assessments, two PD embedded assessments, pre-post-post videotaped classroom observations, and student assessments. Additional data were collected from the case study teachers including additional videotaped classroom observations and interviews. Repeated measures ANOVA analyses were used to detect patterns of change in the treatment teachers’ content knowledge before and after completion of the LTG PD, relative to the comparison group. No significant effects were found across the two groups of teachers on the two teacher content assessments. Teachers were rated on the quality of their mathematics instruction captured in videotaped classroom observations using the Math in Common Observation Protocol. On average, teachers who attended the LTG PD intervention improved their ability to engage students in mathematical reasoning and to provide accurate, coherent, and well-justified mathematical content. In addition, the LTG PD intervention and instruction that engaged students in mathematical practices both positively and significantly predicted greater student knowledge gains. Teacher knowledge was not a significant predictor. Twelve treatment teachers self-selected to serve as case study teachers to provide additional videotapes in which they felt they were using something from the PD they learned and experienced. Project staff analyzed the videos, compared them to previous videos and interviewed the teachers regarding their uptake of the PD related to content knowledge, pedagogical knowledge and resources used. The full paper will include the case study of Ana to illustrate the factors involved in what teachers take up and use from participating in the LTG PD.

Keywords: geometry, mathematics professional development, pedagogical content knowledge, teacher learning

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3357 Community-Based Destination Sustainable Development: Case of Cicada Walking Street, Hua Hin, Thailand

Authors: Kingkan Pongsiri

Abstract:

This paper aims to study the role and activities of the participants and the impact of activities created in the local area in order to sustainably develop the local areas. This study applied both qualitative and quantitative approaches presented in descriptive style; the data was collected via survey, observation and in-depth interviews with samples. The results illustrated five sorts of roles of participants of the Cicada Walking-street and four types of creative activities; recreation based, art based, cultural based, and live events. Integration of local characteristics, arts and cultures were presented creatively and interestingly. Participants are various. The roles of the participants found in the Cicada Market are group of the property and area management, entrepreneurs, leisure (entertaining persons), local people, and tourists. The good impacts on local communities are those in terms of economy, environmental friendly and local arts and cultures promoting. On the other hand, the traffic congestion, waste and the increasing of energy consumption are negative impacts from area development.

Keywords: creative tourism activity, destination development, sustainable development, walking street

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3356 DCASH: Dynamic Cache Synchronization Algorithm for Heterogeneous Reverse Y Synchronizing Mobile Database Systems

Authors: Gunasekaran Raja, Kottilingam Kottursamy, Rajakumar Arul, Ramkumar Jayaraman, Krithika Sairam, Lakshmi Ravi

Abstract:

The synchronization server maintains a dynamically changing cache, which contains the data items which were requested and collected by the mobile node from the server. The order and presence of tuples in the cache changes dynamically according to the frequency of updates performed on the data, by the server and client. To synchronize, the data which has been modified by client and the server at an instant are collected, batched together by the type of modification (insert/ update/ delete), and sorted according to their update frequencies. This ensures that the DCASH (Dynamic Cache Synchronization Algorithm for Heterogeneous Reverse Y synchronizing Mobile Database Systems) gives priority to the frequently accessed data with high usage. The optimal memory management algorithm is proposed to manage data items according to their frequency, theorems were written to show the current mobile data activity is reverse Y in nature and the experiments were tested with 2g and 3g networks for various mobile devices to show the reduced response time and energy consumption.

Keywords: mobile databases, synchronization, cache, response time

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3355 Air Conditioner Refrigerant and Burn: A Case Report

Authors: Okan Cakir, Ibrahim Arziman, Derya Can, Mete Erkencigil, Murat Durusu, S. Mehmet Yasar

Abstract:

Introduction: Burn injuries from different types and ways commonly seen in emergency departments, approach and treatment varies from outpatient treatment to critical care unit. We wanted to mention a rare burn injury cause of air conditioner refrigerant. Case report: A 22-year-old case admitted to emergency department with a complaint of left hand burn injury and pain. In his history, he said that an accident was occurred before 30 minutes from admission while he had been trying to repair the air conditioner. Air conditioner refrigerant suddenly had erupted from its tank and burned his hand. In physical examination of extremities, second-degree burn bullae on the left hand on second and third proximal phalanx, between first and second phalanx palmar side and on hypothenar region and on third and fourth proximal phalanx and also hyperemia from hand to wrist were seen. There was no motor and sensorial deficiency. As a treatment, local silver sulfadiazine applied to the burn area and analgesic prescribed. The case called for the clinical follow-up to the plastic surgery department. Conclusion: The clinician should take a comprehensive and careful anamnesis for suitable and right management and treatment as in this case in which as well as rare and occurs different way.

Keywords: air conditioner refrigerant, burn, emergency department, rare

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3354 Reproductive Health Education (RHE) Toolkit for Science Teachers

Authors: Ivy Jeralyn T. Andres, Eva B. Macugay

Abstract:

Using a descriptive research design utilizing the Research and Development (R&D) methodology, this study focused on the development of Reproductive Health Education (RHE) Toolkit for Science Teachers that provides a guide in teaching reproductive health. Based on the findings, the teacher-respondents identified nine topics that can be included in the development of the RHE toolkit. The topics included are The Male Reproductive System, The Female Reproductive System, The Roles of Hormones in Male and Female Reproductive System, Menstrual Cycle, Fertilization, Pregnancy and Childbirth, Breastfeeding, Human Reproductive and Developmental Concerns and Reproductive Health Management and Diseases. The developed RHE Toolkit is remarked as very highly valid and very highly acceptable learning material. The validators and evaluators acknowledged the developed RHE toolkit as clear, creative, and academically useful supplemental material for educating reproductive health. Moreover, it follows the principles of SMART objectives, factual, timely, and relevant content for both learners and the community as a whole. Science teachers should employ the RHE Toolkit in teaching reproductive health education into their respective classes. It is also suggested that the developed RHE toolkit can be implemented to elementary pupils and the community, particularly in rural areas.

Keywords: reproductive health education, toolkit, science teachers, supplemental material

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3353 Non-Contact Characterization of Standard Liquids Using Waveguide at 12.4 to18 Ghz Frequency Span

Authors: Kasra Khorsand-Kazemi, Bianca Vizcaino, Mandeep Chhajer Jain, Maryam Moradpour

Abstract:

This work presents an approach to characterize a non- contact microwave sensor using waveguides for different standard liquids such as ethanol, methanol and 2-propanol (Isopropyl Alcohol). Wideband waveguides operating between 12.4GHz to 18 GHz form the core of the sensing structure. Waveguides are sensitive to changes in conductivity of the sample under test (SUT), making them an ideal tool to characterize different polar liquids. As conductivity of the sample under test increase, the loss tangent of the material increase, thereby decreasing the S21 (dB) response of the waveguide. Among all the standard liquids measured, methanol exhibits the highest conductivity and 2-Propanol exhibits the lowest. The cutoff frequency measured for ethanol, 2-propanol, and methanol are 10.28 GHz, 10.32 GHz, and 10.38 GHz respectively. The measured results can be correlated with the loss tangent results of the standard liquid measured using the dielectric probe. This conclusively enables us to characterize different liquids using waveguides expanding the potential future applications in domains ranging from water quality management to bio-medical, chemistry and agriculture.

Keywords: Waveguides, , Microwave sensors, , Standard liquids characterization, Non-contact sensing

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3352 A 3D Model of the Sustainable Management of the Natural Environment in National Parks

Authors: Paolo Russu

Abstract:

This paper investigates the economic and ecological dynamics that emerge in Protected Areas (PAs) as a result of interactions between visitors to the area and the animals that live there. We suppose that the PAs contain two species whose interactions are determined by the Lotka-Volterra equations system. Visitors' decisions to visit PAs are influenced by the entrance cost required to enter the park as well as the chance of witnessing the species that live there. Visitors have contradictory effects on the species and thus on the sustainability of the protected areas: on the one hand, an increase in the number of tourists damages the natural habitat of the areas and thus the species living there; on the other hand, it increases the total amount of entrance fees that the managing body of the PAs can use to perform defensive expenditures that protect the species from extinction. For a given set of parameter values, the existence of saddle-node bifurcation, Hopf bifurcation, homoclinic orbits, and a Bogdanov–Takens bifurcation of codimension two has been investigated. The system displays periodic doubling and chaotic solutions, as demonstrated by numerical examples. Pontryagin's Maximum Principle was utilized to develop an optimal admission charge policy that maximized both social gain and ecosystem conservation.

Keywords: environmental preferences, singularities point, dynamical system, chaos

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