Search results for: price trap

Authors: Ioannis P. Panapakidis, Marios N. Moschakis

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The Greek Energy Market is structured as a mandatory pool where the producers make their bid offers in day-ahead basis. The System Operator solves an optimization routine aiming at the minimization of the cost of produced electricity. The solution of the optimization problem leads to the calculation of the System Marginal Price (SMP). Accurate forecasts of the SMP can lead to increased profits and more efficient portfolio management from the producer`s perspective. Aim of this study is to provide a comparative analysis of various machine learning models such as artificial neural networks and neuro-fuzzy models for the prediction of the SMP of the Greek market. Machine learning algorithms are favored in predictions problems since they can capture and simulate the volatilities of complex time series.

Keywords: deregulated energy market, forecasting, machine learning, system marginal price

Procedia PDF Downloads 179

Authors: YongSeok Choi, HwaYoung Seo, InSu Whang, GeogKee Park

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Frankliniella. occidentalis is major pest in chrysanthemum in worldwide. The density of F. occidentalis increased continuously in spite of the periodical chemical control after planting in this study. F. occidentalis began to increase mid-May. The numbers of F. occidentalis collected on a tray with wet paper by heating the flowers of pink, white, and yellow Chrysanthemum standard mums were 18.4, 56.6, and 52.6 in the flowering season. Also, the numbers were 15.2, 45.8, and 41.6 in bud season, but in the case of the leaves, the numbers were 2, 8.8 and 3.4. In the Y-tube olfactometer test, the frequency of F. occidentalis’ visits to one side arm of the Y-tube olfactometer was higher in the odor cue of the white flower than of the yellow, red, and violet flowers, but the frequency was higher in the odor cue of the violet and red flowers than of the yellow without white. In the case of the four-choice olfactometer test, in the same visual cues as the odor cues of the pot mum flowers, the frequency of F. occidentalis was higher in the yellow flower than in the other flowers (white, red, and violet) in all the observation times (10, 15, and 20 minutes).

Keywords: Frankliniella occidentalis, Chrysanthemum, trap plant, control effect

Procedia PDF Downloads 159

Authors: Muhammad Siddique, Volodymyr Lugovskyy

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This paper explores how nations might mitigate the unfavorable impacts of oil price volatility on economic growth by switching to renewable energy sources. The impacts of uncertain factor prices on economic activity are examined by looking at the Realized Volatility (RV) of oil prices rather than the more traditional method of looking at oil price shocks. The United States of America (USA), China (C), India (I), United Kingdom (UK), Germany (G), Malaysia (M), and Pakistan (P) are all included to round out the traditional literature's examination of selected nations, which focuses on oil-importing and exporting economies. Granger Causality Tests (GCT), Impulse Response Functions (IRF), and Variance Decompositions (VD) demonstrate that in a Vector Auto-Regressive (VAR) scenario, the negative impacts of oil price volatility extend beyond what can be explained by oil price shocks alone for all of the nations in the sample. Different nations have different levels of vulnerability to changes in oil prices and other factors that may play a role in a sectoral composition and the energy mix. The conventional method, which only takes into account whether a country is a net oil importer or exporter, is inadequate. The potential economic advantages of initiatives to decouple the macroeconomy from volatile commodities markets are shown through simulations of volatility shocks in alternative energy mixes (with greater proportions of renewables). It is determined that in developing countries like Pakistan, increasing the use of renewable energy sources might lessen an economy's sensitivity to changes in oil prices; nonetheless, a country-specific study is required to identify particular policy actions. In sum, the research provides an innovative justification for mitigating economic growth's dependence on stable oil prices in our sample countries.

Keywords: oil price volatility, renewable energy, economic growth, developed and developing economies

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Authors: Sebastian Gerber, Julian Fesel, Christian Zimmer, Pauline Yzombard, Daniel Comparat, Michael Doser

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Molecular anions play a central role in a wide range of fields: from atmospheric and interstellar science, anionic superhalogens to the chemistry of highly correlated systems. However, up to now the synthesis of negative ions in a controlled manner at ultracold temperatures, relevant for the processes in which they are involved, is currently limited to a few Kelvin by supersonic beam expansion followed by resistive, buffer gas or electron cooling in cryogenic environments. We present a realistic scheme for laser cooling of C2- molecules to sub-Kelvin temperatures, which has so far only been achieved for a few neutral diatomic molecules. The generation of a pulsed source of C2- and subsequent laser cooling techniques of C2- molecules confined in a Penning trap are reviewed. Further, laser cooling of one anionic species would allow to sympathetically cool other molecular anions, electrons and antiprotons that are confined in the same trapping potential. In this presentation the status of the experiment and the feasibility of C2- sympathetic Doppler laser cooling, photo-detachment cooling and AC-Stark Sisyphus cooling will be reviewed.

Keywords: antiprotons, anions, cooling of ions and molecules, Doppler cooling, photo-detachment, penning trap, Sisyphus cooling, sympathetic cooling

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Authors: Amine M. Benmehaia, Amine Oulmane

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The supply response of agricultural commodities to changes in price incentives is an important issue for the success of any policy reform in the agricultural sector. This study aims to quantify the responsiveness of producers of some livestock commodities to price incentives in Algerian context. Time series analysis is used on annual data for a period of 52 years (1966-2018). Both co-integration and vector error correction model (VECM) are used through the Nerlove model of partial adjustment. The study attempts to determine the long-run and short-run relationships along with the magnitudes of disequilibria in the selected commodities. Results show that the short-run price elasticities are low in cow and sheep meat sectors (8.7 and 8% respectively), while their respective long-run elasticities are 16.5 and 10.5, whereas eggs and milk have very high short-run price elasticities (82 and 90% respectively) with long-run elasticities of 40 and 46 respectively. The error correction coefficient, reflecting the speed of adjustment towards the long-run equilibrium, is statistically significant and have the expected negative sign. Its estimates are 12.7 for cow meat, 33.5 for sheep meat, 46.7 for eggs and 8.4 for milk. It seems that cow meat and milk producers have a weak feedback of about 12.7% and 8.4% respectively of the previous year's disequilibrium from the long-run price elasticity, whereas sheep meat and eggs producers adjust to correct long run disequilibrium with a high speed of adjustment (33.5% and 46.7 % respectively). The implication of this is that much more in-depth research is needed to identify those factors that affect agricultural supply and to describe the effect of factors that shift supply in response to price incentives. This could provide valuable information for government in the use of appropriate policy measures.

Keywords: Algeria, cointegration, livestock, supply response, vector error correction model

Procedia PDF Downloads 104

Authors: Şakir Bingöl, Abdullah Emre Aydemir, Abdullah Saado, Ahmet Akıl, Elif Canbaz, Feyza Nur Bulgurcu, Gizem Uzun, Günsu Bilge Dal, Muhammedcan Pirinççi

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Smart contracts, which can be applied in many different areas, from financial applications to the internet of things, come to the fore with their security, low cost, and self-executing features. In this paper, it is focused on peer-to-peer (P2P) energy trading and the implementation of the smart contract on the Ethereum blockchain. It is assumed a microgrid consists of consumers and prosumers that can produce solar and wind energy. The proposed architecture is a system where the prosumer makes the purchase or sale request in the smart contract and the maximum price obtained through the distribution system operator (DSO) by forecasting. It is aimed to forecast the hourly maximum unit price of energy by using deep learning instead of a fixed pricing. In this way, it will make the system more reliable as there will be more dynamic and accurate pricing. For this purpose, Istanbul's energy generation, energy consumption and market clearing price data were used. The consistency of the available data and forecasting results is observed and discussed with graphs.

Keywords: energy trading smart contract, deep learning, microgrid, forecasting, Ethereum, peer to peer

Procedia PDF Downloads 88

Authors: Waleed Afzal Naveed, Muhammd Dildar Gogi, Mubashir Iqbal, Muhammad Junaid Nisar, Muhammad Hamza Khaliq, Faisal Munir

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Experiment was carried out to evaluate the performance of highly effective Slow-Released Formulations (SRF) of Methyl eugenol with Lanolin wax, Candellila wax, Bee-wax, Carnauba wax and paraffin wax in the orchard of University of Agriculture Faisalabad, Pakistan against fruit flies. The waxes were mixed with methyl eugenol in 1:9 ratio. The results revealed that SRF of Candellila, Paraffin, Bees and Carnauba wax attracted 13.77, 11, 8.15 and 7.23 flies/day/trap which was 2.6, 2, 1.5 and 1.4 times higher than standard respectively and exhibited 41.42%, 32.05%, 20.98% and 12.87% attractive index respectively, proved moderately attractive slow-released formulation to B. zonata and was catagorized as Class-II slow-released formulation (AI = 11-50%). However, SRF of Lanolin wax trapped 1.81 flies/day/trap which was 3 times less than standard and exhibited -61.86% attractive index proved little or non attractive slow-released formulation and was categorized as Class-I slow-released formulation for B. zonata (AI < 11%).

Keywords: biodegradable waxes, slow-released formulation, Bactrocera zonata, methyl euginol

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Authors: Mohammad Rahim Rahnama

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The study employs Monte Carlo method for simulation of rented housing in Mashhad second largest city in Iran. A total number of 334 rental residential units in Mashhad, including both apartments and houses (villa), were randomly selected from advertisements placed in Khorasan Newspapers during the months of July and August of 2015. In order to simulate the monthly rent price, the rent index was calculated through combining the mortgage and the rent price. In the next step, the relation between the variables of the floor area and that of the number of bedrooms for each unit, in both apartments and houses(villa), was calculated through multivariate regression using SPSS and was coded in XML. The initial model was called using simulation button in SPSS and was simulated using triangular and binominal algorithms. The findings revealed that the average simulated rental index was 548.5$ per month. Calculating the sensitivity of rental index to a number of bedrooms we found that firstly, 97% of units have three bedrooms, and secondly as the number of bedrooms increases from one to three, for the rent price of less than 200$, the percentage of units having one bedroom decreases from 10% to 0. Contrariwise, for units with the rent price of more than 571.4$, the percentage of bedrooms increases from 37% to 48%. In the light of these findings, it becomes clear that planning to build rental residential units, overseeing the rent prices, and granting subsidies to rental residential units, for apartments with two bedrooms, present a felicitous policy for regulating residential units in Mashhad.

Keywords: Mashhad, Monte Carlo, simulation, rent price, residential unit

Procedia PDF Downloads 244

Authors: Dongqi Sun, Juan Tao, Yingying Wu

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This paper reexamines the appropriateness of contrarian trades as a proxy of informed trades, using high frequency Chinese stock data. Employing this measure for 5 minute intervals, a U-shaped intraday pattern of probability of informed trades (PIN) is found for the CSI300 stocks, which is consistent with previous findings for other markets. However, while dividing the trades into different sizes, a reversed U-shaped PIN from large-sized trades, opposed to the U-shaped pattern for small- and medium-sized trades, is observed. Drawing from the mixed evidence with different trade sizes, the price impact of trades is further investigated. By examining the relationship between trade imbalances and unexpected returns, larges-sized trades are found to have significant price impact. This implies that in those intervals with large trades, it is non-contrarian trades that are more likely to be informed trades. Taking account of the price impact of large-sized trades, non-contrarian trades are used to proxy for informed trading in those intervals with large trades, and contrarian trades are still used to measure informed trading in other intervals. A stronger U-shaped PIN is demonstrated from this modification. Auto-correlation and information advantage tests for robustness also support the modified informed trading measure.

Keywords: contrarian trades, informed trading, price impact, trade imbalance

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Authors: Ming Liu, Zhihui Sun, Xiaoning Zhang

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This paper studies a deterministic container transportation problem, jointly optimizing the berth allocation, quay crane assignment and yard storage allocation at container ports. The problem is formulated as an integer program to coordinate the decisions. Because of the large scale, it is then transformed into a set partitioning formulation, and a framework of branchand- price algorithm is provided to solve it.

Keywords: branch-and-price, container terminal, joint scheduling, maritime logistics

Procedia PDF Downloads 258

Authors: Serdar Delice, Mehmet Isik, Nizami Hasanli, Kadir Goksen

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Researchers have donated great interest to ternary and quaternary semiconductor compounds especially with the improvement of the optoelectronic technology. The quaternary compound Tl2Ga2Se3S which was grown by Bridgman method carries the properties of ternary thallium chalcogenides group of semiconductors with layered structure. This compound can be formed from TlGaSe2 crystals replacing the one quarter of selenium atom by sulfur atom. Although Tl2Ga2Se3S crystals are not intentionally doped, some unintended defect types such as point defects, dislocations and stacking faults can occur during growth processes of crystals. These defects can cause undesirable problems in semiconductor materials especially produced for optoelectronic technology. Defects of various types in the semiconductor devices like LEDs and field effect transistor may act as a non-radiative or scattering center in electron transport. Also, quick recombination of holes with electrons without any energy transfer between charge carriers can occur due to the existence of defects. Therefore, the characterization of defects may help the researchers working in this field to produce high quality devices. Thermoluminescence (TL) is an effective experimental method to determine the kinetic parameters of trap centers due to defects in crystals. In this method, the sample is illuminated at low temperature by a light whose energy is bigger than the band gap of studied sample. Thus, charge carriers in the valence band are excited to delocalized band. Then, the charge carriers excited into conduction band are trapped. The trapped charge carriers are released by heating the sample gradually and these carriers then recombine with the opposite carriers at the recombination center. By this way, some luminescence is emitted from the samples. The emitted luminescence is converted to pulses by using an experimental setup controlled by computer program and TL spectrum is obtained. Defect characterization of Tl2Ga2Se3S single crystals has been performed by TL measurements at low temperatures between 10 and 300 K with various heating rate ranging from 0.6 to 1.0 K/s. The TL signal due to the luminescence from trap centers revealed one glow peak having maximum temperature of 36 K. Curve fitting and various heating rate methods were used for the analysis of the glow curve. The activation energy of 13 meV was found by the application of curve fitting method. This practical method established also that the trap center exhibits the characteristics of mixed (general) kinetic order. In addition, various heating rate analysis gave a compatible result (13 meV) with curve fitting as the temperature lag effect was taken into consideration. Since the studied crystals were not intentionally doped, these centers are thought to originate from stacking faults, which are quite possible in Tl2Ga2Se3S due to the weakness of the van der Waals forces between the layers. Distribution of traps was also investigated using an experimental method. A quasi-continuous distribution was attributed to the determined trap centers.

Keywords: chalcogenides, defects, thermoluminescence, trap centers

Procedia PDF Downloads 258

Authors: Qaiser Munir, Hamid Hussain

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Oil prices are believed to have a major impact on several economic indicators, leading to several instances where a comparison between oil prices and a trade deficit of oil-importing countries have been carried out. Building upon the narrative, this paper sheds light on the ongoing debate by inquiring upon the possibility of asymmetric linkages between oil prices, industrial production, exchange rate, whole price index, and trade deficit. The analytical tool used to further understand the complexities of a recent approach called nonlinear auto-regressive distributed lag model (NARDL) is utilised. Our results suggest that there are significant asymmetric effects among the main variables of interest. Further, our findings indicate that any variation in oil prices, industrial production, exchange rate, and whole price index on trade deficit tend to fluctuate in the long run. Moreover, the long-run picture denotes that increased oil price leads to a negative impact on the trade deficit, which, in its true essence, is a disproportionate impact. In addition to this, the Wald test simultaneously conducted concludes the absence of any significant evidence of the asymmetry in the oil prices impact on the trade balance in the short-run.

Keywords: trade deficit, oil prices, developing economy, NARDL

Procedia PDF Downloads 109

Authors: Pratheeba Subramanian, Anjula Gurtoo, Mary Mathew

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Transaction of patents in emerging patent markets is gaining momentum. Pricing patents for a transaction say patent sale remains a challenge. Patents vary in their pricing with some patents fetching higher prices than others. Sale of patents in portfolios further complicates pricing with multiple patents playing a role in pricing a bundle. In this paper, a set of 138 US patents sold individually as single invention lots and 462 US patents sold in bundles of 120 portfolios are investigated to understand the dynamics of selling prices of singletons and portfolios and their determinants. Firstly, price variations when patents are sold individually as singletons and portfolios are studied. Multivariate statistical techniques are used for analysis both at the lot level as well as at the individual patent level. The results show portfolios fetching higher prices than singletons at the lot level. However, at the individual patent level singletons show higher prices than per patent price of individual patent members within the portfolio. Secondly, to understand the price determinants, the effect of patent, seller, and bundling related characteristics on selling prices is studied separately for singletons and portfolios. The results show differences in the set of characteristics determining prices of singletons and portfolios. Selling prices of singletons are found to be dependent on the patent related characteristics, unlike portfolios whose prices are found to be dependent on all three aspects – patent, seller, and bundling. The specific patent, seller and bundling characteristics influencing selling price are discussed along with the implications.

Keywords: auction, patents, portfolio bundling, seller type, selling price, singleton

Procedia PDF Downloads 303

Authors: Widya Anggraini Pamungkas, Rosana Budi Setyawati, Awaludin Fitroh Rifai, Candra Pangesti Setiawan, Anatta Wahyu Budiiman, Inayati, Joko Waluyo, Sunu Herwi Pranolo

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The increase in LPG consumption in Indonesia is not balanced with the amount of supply. The high demand for LPG due to the success of the government's kerosene-to-LPG conversion program and the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020 led to an increase in LPG consumption in the household sector and caused Indonesia's trade balance to experience a deficit. The high consumption of LPG encourages the need for alternative fuels as a substitute or which aims to substitute LPG; one of the materials that can be used is Dimethyl Ether (DME). Dimethyl ether (DME) is an organic compound with the chemical formula CH 3. OCH 3 has a high cetane number and has characteristics similar to LPG. DME can be produced from various sources, such as coal, biomass and natural gas. Based on the economic analysis conducted at 10% IRR, coal has the largest NPV of Rp. 20,034,837,497,241 with a payback period of 3.86 years, then biomass with an NPV of Rp. 10,401,526,072,850 and a payback period of 5.16. the latter is natural gas with an NPV of IDR 7,401,272,559,191 and a payback period of 6.17 years. Of the three sources of raw materials used, if the sensitivity is calculated using the selling price of DME equal to the selling price of LPG, it will get an NPV value that is greater than the NPV value when using the current DME price. The advantages of coal as a raw material for DME are not only because it is profitable, namely: low price and abundant resources, but has high greenhouse gas emissions.

Keywords: LPG, DME, coal, biomass, natural gas

Procedia PDF Downloads 82

Authors: Marjan Golmaryami, Marzieh Behzadi

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Recent developments in stock exchange highlight the need for an efficient and accurate method that helps stockholders make better decision. Since stock markets have lots of fluctuations during the time and different effective parameters, it is difficult to make good decisions. The purpose of this study is to employ artificial neural network (ANN) which can deal with time series data and nonlinear relation among variables to forecast next day stock price. Unlike other evolutionary algorithms which were utilized in stock exchange prediction, we trained our proposed neural network with metaheuristic bat algorithm, with fast and powerful convergence and applied it in stock price prediction for the first time. In order to prove the performance of the proposed method, this research selected a 7 year dataset from Parsian Bank stocks and after imposing data preprocessing, used 3 types of ANN (back propagation-ANN, particle swarm optimization-ANN and bat-ANN) to predict the closed price of stocks. Afterwards, this study engaged MATLAB to simulate 3 types of ANN, with the scoring target of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The results may be adapted to other companies stocks too.

Keywords: artificial neural network (ANN), bat algorithm, particle swarm optimization algorithm (PSO), stock exchange

Procedia PDF Downloads 523

Authors: Rancy Chepchirchir Kosgey, John Olukuru

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This study examines the impact of introduction of futures trading on the spot price volatility in the commodity market. The paper considers the United States of America, South Africa and Ethiopian economies. Three commodities i.e. coffee, maize and wheat from New York Merchantile Exchange, South African Futures Exchange and Ethiopian Commodity Exchange are analyzed. ARCH LM test is used to check for heteroskedasticity and GARCH and EGARCH are used to check for the behavior of volatility between the pre- and post-futures periods. For all the three economies, the results indicate presence of the ARCH effect in the log returns. For conditional and unconditional variances; spot price volatility for coffee has decreased after futures trading in all the economies and the EGARCH has also shown reduction in persistence of volatility in the post-futures period in the three economies; while that of maize has reduced for the Ethiopian economy while there has been an increase in both the US and South African economies. For wheat, the conditional variance has been found to rise in the post-futures period in all the three economies.

Keywords: derivatives, futures exchange, agricultural commodities, spot price volatility

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Authors: Christopher Reichstein, Ralf-Christian Härting, Martina Häußler

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With a continuously increasing speed of information exchange on the World Wide Web, retailers in the E-Commerce sector are faced with immense possibilities regarding different online purchase processes like dynamic price settings. By use of Dynamic Pricing, retailers are able to set short time price changes in order to optimize producer surplus. The empirical research illustrates the basics of Dynamic Pricing and identifies six influencing factors of Dynamic Pricing. The results of a structural equation modeling approach show five main drivers increasing the potential of dynamic price settings in the E-Commerce. Influencing factors are the knowledge of customers’ individual willingness to pay, rising sales, the possibility of customization, the data volume and the information about competitors’ pricing strategy.

Keywords: e-commerce, empirical research, experts, dynamic pricing (DP), influencing factors, potentials

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Authors: Prince Amartey

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Bees are clever creatures, thus, capturing bees implies that the hives are intelligent in the sense that they have all of the required circumstances to attract and trap the bees. If the hive goes above and beyond to keep the bees in the hive and to keep the activities of in-hive pests to a minimal in order for the bees to develop to their maximum potential, the hive is becoming or is more 'intelligent'. Some bee pests, such as tiny beehive beetles, are endemic to Africa; however, the way we now extract honey by cutting off the combs and pressing for honey prevents the spread of these bees' insect enemies. However, when we explore entering the commercialization. When freshly collected combs are returned to the hives following the adoption of the frame and other systems, there is a need to consider putting in strategies to manage the accompanying pest concerns that arise with unprotected combs.The techniques for making hives more'intelligent' are thus more important presently, given that the African apicultural business does not wish to encourage the use of pesticides in the hives. This include changing the hive's entrance holes in order to improve the bees' own mechanism for defending the entry sites, as well as collecting pests by setting exterior and in-hive traps to prevent pest infiltration into hives by any means feasible. Material and Methods: The following five (5) mechanisms are proposed to make the hives more 'intelligent.' i. The usage of modified frames with five (5) beetle traps positioned horizontally on the vertical 'legs' to catch the beetle along the combs' surfaces-multiple bee ii. Baited bioelectric frame traps, which has both vertical sections of frame covered with a 3mm mesh that allows pest entry but not bees. The pest is attracted by strips of combs of honey, open brood, pollen on metal plates inserted horizontally on the vertical ‘legs’ of the frames. An electrical ‘mine’ system in place that electrocutes the pests as they step on the wires in the trap to enter the frame trap iii. The ten rounded hive entry holes are adapted as the bees are able to police the entrance to prevent entry of pest. The holes are arranged in two rows, with one on top of the other What Are the Main Contributions of Your Research?-Results Discussions and Conclusions The techniques implemented decrease pest ingress, while in-hive traps capture those that escape entry into the hives. Furthermore, the stand alteration traps larvae and stops their growth into adults. As beekeeping commercialization grows throughout Africa, these initiatives will minimize insect infestation in hives and necessarily enhance honey output.

Keywords: bee pests, modified frames, multiple beetle trap, Baited bioelectric frame traps

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Authors: Samira Mohabbatdar, Abbas Ahmadi, Mohsen S. Sajadieh

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This paper deals with a two-level supply chain consisted of one manufacturer and one retailer for single-type product. The demand function of the customers depends on price. We consider an integrated production inventory system where the manufacturer processes raw materials in order to deliver finished product with imperfect quality to the retailer. Then retailer inspects the products and after that delivers perfect products to customers. The proposed model is based on the joint total profit of both the manufacturer and the retailer, and it determines the optimal ordering lot-size, number of shipment and selling price of the retailer. A numerical example is provided to analyse and illustrate the behaviour and application of the model. Finally, sensitivity analysis of the key parameters are presented to test feasibility of the model.

Keywords: supply chain, pricing policy, defective quality, joint economic lot sizing

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Authors: Leanda Denise Mason, Philip William Bateman, Grant Wardell-Johnson

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Ecological traps attract biota to low-quality habitats. Landscape traps are zones caught in a vortex of spiraling degradation. Here, we demonstrate how short-range endemic traits may make such taxa vulnerable to ecological and landscape traps. Three short-range endemic mygalomorph spider species were used in this study. Mygalomorphs can be long-lived ( > 40 years) and select sites for permanent burrows in their early dispersal phase. Spiderlings from two species demonstrated choice for microhabitats that correspond to where adults typically occur. An invasive veldt grass microhabitat was selected almost exclusively by spiderlings of the third species. Habitat dominated by veldt grass has lower prey diversity and abundance than undisturbed habitats and therefore acts as an ecological trap for this species. Furthermore, as a homogenising force, veldt grass can spread to form a landscape trap in naturally heterogeneous ecosystems. Selection of specialised microhabitats of short-range endemics may explain high extinction rates in old, stable landscapes undergoing (human-induced) rapid change.

Keywords: biotic homogenization, invasive species, mygalomorph, short-range endemic

Procedia PDF Downloads 199

Authors: Debraj Adhikari, Resham Bahadur Thapa, Samudra Lal Joshi, Jason Jinping Du, Sundar Tiwari

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The purpose of this study was to keep a record of fruit fly species (Tephritidae: Diptera) in the sweet orange orchards of Sindhuli district, Nepal. Male fruit fly species were trapped and collected fortnightly using para-pheromone lures (methyl eugenol and cue lure) in Steiner traps at 25 orchards starting in March 2019 and continuing until February 2021. During the monitoring period, there was a significant variation in the occurrence of the fruit fly species. Fruit flies were captured in greater numbers during warm and rainy months (June, July, August, September) than during dry and winter months (December, January, February). Higher numbers of fruit flies were trapped in methyl eugenol than cue lure traps. Bactrocera dorsalis, B. zonata were major fruit fly species trapped in the methyl eugenol trap. Whereas, Zeugodacus tau, Z. cucurbitae, Z. scutellaris, and Dacus longicornis were major fruit fly species trapped in the cue lure trap. The findings of this study could be used to develop a long-term pest management strategy for the agro-ecological system.

Keywords: bactrocera, cue lure, methyl eugenol, monitoring, zeugodacus

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Authors: Sungzoon Cho, Hye Jin Lee, Sungwhan Jeon, Dongyoung Min, Sungwon Lyu

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Major public corporations worldwide use conference calls to report their quarterly earnings. These 'earnings' conference calls allow for questions from stock analysts. We investigated if it is possible to identify sentiment from the call script and use it to predict stock price movement. We analyzed call scripts from six companies, two each from Korea, China and Indonesia during six years 2011Q1 – 2017Q2. Random forest with Frequency-based sentiment scores using Loughran MacDonald Dictionary did better than control model with only financial indicators. When the stock prices went up 20 days from earnings release, our model predicted correctly 77% of time. When the model predicted 'up,' actual stock prices went up 65% of time. This preliminary result encourages us to investigate advanced sentiment scoring methodologies such as topic modeling, auto-encoder, and word2vec variants.

Keywords: earnings call script, random forest, sentiment analysis, stock price prediction

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Authors: Chia-Yu Lin, Chun-Ying Lee, Chih-Jer Lin

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Lemongrass (Cymbopogon citratus), grown in tropical and subtropical regions over the world, has many potential uses in pharmaceutical, cosmetics, food and flavor, and agriculture industries. In this study, because of its affinity to human body and friendliness to the environment, lemongrass extract was prepared from different processes to evaluate its effectiveness as mosquito repellent. Moreover, the supercritical fluid extraction method has been widely used as an effective and environmental friendly process in the preparation of a variety of compounds. Thus, both the extracts from lemongrass by the conventional hydrodistillation method and the supercritical CO₂ assisted method were compared. The effects of pressure, temperature and time duration on the supercritical CO₂ extraction were also investigated. The compositions of different extracts were examined using mass spectrometer. As for the experiment of mosquito repellence, the extract was placed inside a mosquito trap along with syrup. The mosquito counts in each trap with extracts prepared from different processes were employed in the quantitative evaluation. It was found that the extract from the supercritical CO₂ assisted process contained higher citronellol content than the conventional hydrodistillation method. The extract with higher citronellol content also demonstrated more effective as a mosquito repellent.

Keywords: lemongrass (Cymbopogon citratus), hydrodistillation, supercritical fluid extraction, mosquito repellent

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Authors: Siphat Lim

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The result of the study revealed that the interaction between money, exchange rate, and price level was mainly derived from the policy-induced by the central bank. Furthermore, the variation of inflation was explained weakly by exchange rate and money supply. In the period of twelfth-month, the variation of inflation which caused by exchange rate and money supply were not more than 1.78 percent and 9.77 percent, respectively.

Keywords: money supply, exchange rate, price level, VAR model

Procedia PDF Downloads 248

Authors: Punya Tepsing

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This research aimed to study the beliefs in auspicious materials of entrepreneurs in Muang Hat Yai. The data were collected via documentary research and field work including interviews, observations shops in Hat Yai which used auspicious materials to bring lucks to the shops. The results were as follows. The beliefs in auspicious materials that the entrepreneurs had were of three areas: 1) The auspicious materials could correct the improperness of the shop location, for example, the shop situated opposite a branch road, a shrine, or a bank. The owner usually corrected it by putting Chinese auspicious materials in front of or in the shop, for example, a lion holding a sword in his mouth, or a mirror, etc. 2) The auspicious materials could bring in more income. The owner of the shop usually put the auspicious materials such as a cat beckoning and a bamboo fish trap believed to trap money in front of or inside the shop. 3) The auspicious materials like turtles, paired fish and a monster holding the moon in his mouth could solve life problems including health, family, and safety problems. The use of these auspicious materials showed the blending of the beliefs of the Chinese shop entrepreneurs with the Thai folk beliefs. What is interesting is that Hat Yai is located near the three southern border provinces which are the unrest area and this may cause the number of tourists to decline. This prompted them to build a mechanism in adjusting themselves both to save their lives and to increase the number of customers. Auspicious materials can make them feel more confident.

Keywords: belief, auspicious materials, shop, entrepreneur, Maung Hat Yai

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Authors: Tai-Yue Wang, Yi-Ho Chen

Abstract:

In this study, we investigate a two-echelon supply chain with two suppliers and three retailers among which one retailer dominates other retailers. A price competition demand function is used to model this dominant retailer, which is leading market. The promotion strategies and negotiation schemes are integrated to form decision-making models under different scenarios. These models are then formulated into different mathematical programming models. The decision variables such as promotional costs, retailer prices, wholesale price, and order quantity are included in these models. At last, the distributions of promotion costs under different cost allocation strategies are discussed. Finally, an empirical example used to validate our models. The results from this empirical example show that the profit model will create the largest profit for the supply chain but with different profit-sharing results. At the same time, the more risk a member can take, the more profits are distributed to that member in the utility model.

Keywords: supply chain, price promotion, mathematical models, dominant retailer

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Authors: Waleed Afzal Naveed, Muhammd Dildar Gogi, Muhammad Sufian, Muhammad Junaid Nisar, Mubashir Iqbal, Hafiz Muhammad Waqas Amjad, Muhammad Hamza Khaliq

Abstract:

Present study was carried out to evaluate the performance of Slow-Released Formulations (SRF) of methyl eugenol with Carnauba wax in orchard of University of Agriculture Faisalabad, Pakistan against fruit flies. Carnauba wax was mixed with methyl eugenol in nine ratios (10:90, 20:80, 30:70, 40:60, 50:50, 60:40, 70:30, 80:20 and 90:10). The results revealed that SRFCN-9 trapped 35.3 flies/day/trap, exhibited an attractancy index (AI) of 50.35%, proved strongly attractive SRFCN for B. zonata and was categorized as Class-III slow-released formulation (Attractive Index > 50%). The SRFCN-1, SRFCN-2, SRFCN-3, SRFCN-4, SRFCN-5, SRFCN-6, SRFCN-7 and SRFCN-8 trapped 2.0, 5.3, 3.3, 4.0, 5.7, 12.0, 9.7 and 14.3 flies/day/trap respectively exhibited an attractancy index (AI) of -70.73%, -37.25%, -55.55%, -48.93%, -34.61%, 1.40%, -9.37% and 10.25% Attractive Index respectively, proved little or non attractive slow-released formulation and was categorized as Class-I slow-released formulation for B. zonata (Attractive Index < 11%). Results revealed that the Slow-Released Formulation containing 10% Carnauba wax with 90% methyl eugenol trapped maximum number of flies of over 30 days.

Keywords: slow-released formulation, Bactrocera zonata, Carnauba wax, methyl euginol

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Authors: Pierluigi Gallo, Francesco Randazzo, Ignazio Gallo

Abstract:

In recent years, many new and interesting models of successful online business have been developed. Many of these are based on the competition between users, such as online auctions, where the product price is not fixed and tends to rise. Other models, including group-buying, are based on cooperation between users, characterized by a dynamic price of the product that tends to go down. There is not yet a business model in which both sellers and buyers are grouped in order to negotiate on a specific product or service. The present study investigates a new extension of the group-buying model, called fair, which allows aggregation of demand and supply for price optimization, in a cooperative manner. Additionally, our system also aggregates products and destinations for shipping optimization. We introduced the following new relevant input parameters in order to implement a double-side aggregation: (a) price-quantity curves provided by the seller; (b) waiting time, that is, the longer buyers wait, the greater discount they get; (c) payment time, which determines if the buyer pays before, during or after receiving the product; (d) the distance between the place where products are available and the place of shipment, provided in advance by the buyer or dynamically suggested by the system. To analyze the proposed model we implemented a system prototype and a simulator that allows studying effects of changing some input parameters. We analyzed the dynamic price model in fairs having one single seller and a combination of selected sellers. The results are very encouraging and motivate further investigation on this topic.

Keywords: auction, aggregation, fair, group buying, social buying

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Authors: Himayatullah Khan

Abstract:

This study estimates supply response function of sugarcane in Pakistan from 1980-81 to 2012-13. The study uses co-integration approach and error correction mechanism. Sugarcane production, area and price series were tested for unit root using Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF). The study found that these series were stationary at their first differenced level. Using the Augmented Engle-Granger test and Cointegrating Regression Durbin-Watson (CRDW) test, the study found that “production and price” and “area and price” were co-integrated suggesting that the two sets of time series had long-run or equilibrium relationship. The results of the error correction models for the two sets of series showed that there was disequilibrium in the short run there may be disequilibrium. The Engle-Granger residual may be thought of as the equilibrium error which can be used to tie the short-run behavior of the dependent variable to its long-run value. The Granger-Causality test results showed that log of price granger caused both the long of production and log of area whereas, the log of production and log of area Granger caused each other.

Keywords: co-integration, error correction mechanism, Granger-causality, sugarcane, supply response

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Authors: Cristian Pauna

Abstract:

Trading the financial markets is a widespread activity today. A large number of investors, companies, public of private funds are buying and selling every day in order to make profit. Algorithmic trading is the prevalent method to make the trade decisions after the electronic trading release. The orders are sent almost instantly by computers using mathematical models. This paper will present a price prediction methodology based on a multi-dimensional neural network. Using the Fisher transform, the neural network will be instructed for a low-latency auto-adaptive process in order to predict the price evolution for the next period of time. The model is designed especially for algorithmic trading and uses the real-time price series. It was found that the characteristics of the Fisher function applied at the nodes scale level can generate reliable trading signals using the neural network methodology. After real time tests it was found that this method can be applied in any timeframe to trade the financial markets. The paper will also include the steps to implement the presented methodology into an automated trading system. Real trading results will be displayed and analyzed in order to qualify the model. As conclusion, the compared results will reveal that the neural network methodology applied together with the Fisher transform at the nodes level can generate a good price prediction and can build reliable trading signals for algorithmic trading.

Keywords: algorithmic trading, automated trading systems, financial markets, high-frequency trading, neural network

Procedia PDF Downloads 132