Search results for: portfolio insurance

Authors: Wee Tong Liaw, Elaine Wong Yee Sing

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Since 2001, many companies in Singapore have voluntarily participated in the bi-annual Singapore HEALTH Award initiated by the Health Promotion Board of Singapore (HPB). The Singapore HEALTH Award (SHA), is an industry wide award and assessment process. SHA assesses and recognizes employers in Singapore for implementing a comprehensive and sustainable health promotion programme at their workplaces. The rationale for implementing a sustained health promoting workplace and participating in SHA is obvious when company management is convinced that healthier employees, business productivity, and profitability are positively correlated. However, performing research or empirical studies on the impact of a sustained health promoting workplace on stock returns are not likely to yield any interests in the absence of a systematic and independent assessment on the comprehensiveness and sustainability of a health promoting workplace in most developed economies. The principles of diversification and mean-variance efficient portfolio in Modern Portfolio Theory developed by Markowitz (1952) laid the foundation for the works of many financial economists and researchers, and among others, the development of the Capital Asset Pricing Model from the work of Sharpe (1964), Lintner (1965) and Mossin (1966), and the Fama-French Three-Factor Model of Fama and French (1992). This research seeks to support the rationale by studying whether there is a significant relationship or impact of a sustained health promoting workplace on the performance of companies listed on the SGX. The research shall form and test hypotheses pertaining to the impact of a sustained health promoting workplace on company’s performances, including stock returns, of companies that participated in the SHA and companies that did not participate in the SHA. In doing so, the research would be able to determine whether corporate and fund manager should consider the significance of a sustained health promoting workplace as a risk factor to explain the stock returns of companies listed on the SGX. With respect to Singapore’s stock market, this research will test the significance and relevance of a health promoting workplace using the Singapore Health Award as a proxy for non-diversifiable risk factor to explain stock returns. This study will examine the significance of a health promoting workplace on a company’s performance and study its impact on stock price performance and beta and examine if it has higher explanatory power than the traditional single factor asset pricing model CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model). To study the significance there are three key questions pertinent to the research study. I) Given a choice, would an investor be better off investing in a listed company with a sustained health promoting workplace i.e. a Singapore Health Award’s recipient? II) The Singapore Health Award has four levels of award starting from Bronze, Silver, Gold to Platinum. Would an investor be indifferent to the level of award when investing in a listed company who is a Singapore Health Award’s recipient? III) Would an asset pricing model combining FAMA-French Three Factor Model and ‘Singapore Health Award’ factor be more accurate than single factor Capital Asset Pricing Model and the Three Factor Model itself?

Keywords: asset pricing model, company's performance, stock prices, sustained health promoting workplace

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Authors: Cagdas Agirdas

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Background: The Affordable Care Act (ACA) requires non-grandfathered private insurance plans, starting with plan years on or after September 23rd, 2010, to provide certain preventive care services without any cost sharing in the form of deductibles, copayments or co-insurance. This requirement may affect racial and ethnic disparities in preventive care as it provides the largest copay reduction in preventive care. Objectives: We ask whether the ACA’s free preventive care benefits are associated with a reduction in racial and ethnic disparities in the utilization of four preventive services: cholesterol screenings, colonoscopies, mammograms, and pap smears. Methods: We use a data set of over 6,000 individuals from the 2009, 2010, and 2013 Medical Expenditure Panel Surveys (MEPS). We restrict our data set only to individuals who are old enough to be eligible for each preventive service. Our difference-in-differences logistic regression model classifies privately-insured Hispanics, African Americans, and Asians as the treatment groups and 2013 as the after-policy year. Our control group consists of non-Hispanic whites on Medicaid as this program already covered preventive care services for free or at a low cost before the ACA. Results: After controlling for income, education, marital status, preferred interview language, self-reported health status, employment, having a usual source of care, age and gender, we find that the ACA is associated with increases in the probability of the median, privately-insured Hispanic person to get a colonoscopy by 3.6% and a mammogram by 3.1%, compared to a non-Hispanic white person on Medicaid. Similarly, we find that the median, privately-insured African American person’s probability of receiving these two preventive services improved by 2.3% and 2.4% compared to a non-Hispanic white person on Medicaid. We do not find any significant improvements for any racial or ethnic group for cholesterol screenings or pap smears. Furthermore, our results do not indicate any significant changes for Asians compared to non-Hispanic whites in utilizing the four preventive services. These reductions in racial/ethnic disparities are robust to reconfigurations of time periods, previous diagnosis, and residential status. Conclusions: Early effects of the ACA’s provision of free preventive care are significant for Hispanics and African Americans. Further research is needed for the later years as more individuals became aware of these benefits.

Keywords: preventive care, Affordable Care Act, cost sharing, racial disparities

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Authors: Aslam Faheem, Hunjra Ahmed Imran, Tayachi Tahar, Verhoeven Peter, Tariq Yasir

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We investigate the evidence of three risk-adjusted calendar anomalies in eight frontier markets. Our sample consists of the daily closing prices of their stock indices for the period of January 2006 to September 2019. We categorize the data with respect to day-of-the-week, Lunar calendar and Islamic calendar. Using Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) eight Markets Index as our proxy of the market portfolio, most of the frontier markets tested exhibit calendar seasonality. We confirm that systematic risk varies with respect to day-of-the-week, Lunar months and Islamic months. After consideration of time-varying risk and applying Bonferroni correction, few frontier markets exhibit profitable investment opportunities from calendar return anomalies for active investment managers.

Keywords: asset pricing, frontier markets, market efficiency, Islamic calendar effects, Islamic stock markets

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Authors: Elijah Cavan

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In Major League Sports (MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL), it is the Front Office Staff (FOS) who make decisions about who plays for their respective team. The FOS bear the brunt of the responsibility for acquiring players through drafting, trading and signing players in free agency while typically contesting with maximum roster salary constraints. The players themselves are volatile assets of these teams- their value fluctuates with age and performance. A simple comparison can be made when viewing players as assets. The problem here is similar to that of optimizing your investment portfolio. The The goal is ultimately to maximize your periodic returns while tolerating a fixed risk (degree of uncertainty/ potential loss). Each franchise may value assets differently, and some may only tolerate lower risk levels- these are examples of factors that introduce additional constraints into the model. In this talk, we will detail the mathematical formulation of this problem as a constrained optimization problem- which can be solved with classical machine learning methods but is also well posed as a problem to be solved on quantum computers

Keywords: optimization, financial mathematics, sports analytics, simulated annealing

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Authors: Waheed Oseni

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This article reviews emergent global trends in intellectual property protection and identifies patenting as a strategic initiative. Recent developments in software and method of doing business patenting are fast transforming the e‐business landscape. The article discusses the emergent global regulatory framework concerning intellectual property rights and the strategic value of patenting. Important features of a corporate patenting portfolio are described. Superficially, the e‐commerce landscape appears to be dominated by dotcom start-ups or the “dotcomization” of existing brick and mortar companies. But, in reality, at its very bedrock is intellectual property (IP). In this connection, the recent avalanche of patenting of software and method‐of‐doing‐business (MDB) in the USA is a very significant development with regard to rules governing IP rights and, therefore, e‐commerce. Together with the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) IP rules, there is an emerging global regulatory framework for IP rights, an understanding of which is necessary for designing effective e‐commerce strategies.

Keywords: intellectual property, patents, methods, computer software

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Authors: Yuri Katz, Kun Liu, Arunram Atmacharan

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Due to illiquidity, mispricing on Credit Markets is inevitable. This creates huge challenges to banks and investors as they seek to find new ways of risk valuation and portfolio management in a post-credit crisis world. Here, we analyze the difference in behavior of the spread-to-maturity in investment and high-yield categories of US corporate bonds between 2014 and 2023. Deviation from the theoretical dependency of this measure in the universe under study allows to identify multiple cases of mispriced credit risk. Remarkably, we observe mispriced bonds in both categories of credit ratings. This identification is supported by the application of the state-of-the-art machine learning model in more than 90% of cases. Noticeably, the ML-driven model-based forecasting of a category of bond’s credit ratings demonstrate an excellent out-of-sample accuracy (AUC = 98%). We believe that these results can augment conventional valuations of credit portfolios.

Keywords: credit risk, credit ratings, bond pricing, spread-to-maturity, machine learning

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Authors: João Boaventura Branco De Matos

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Currently, in Brazil, there is a considerable collection of publications on the supplementary health sector, but the vast majority is limited to retrospective examination of the sector. The present contribution starts from the diagnosis of an overwhelming change in the role of the State and its institutions, as well as an accelerated and no less forceful change in the way of producing goods and services, resulting in a clash between these different waves (state and market). This shock produces unique energy, capable of imposing major changes in the most varied sectors. Based on this diagnosis, there was an opportunity to offer the perspective and propositional study of regulatory measures relevant to the best conduct and performance of this sector in the future.

Keywords: private health regulation, state and market, forecasts in Brazilian regulation, political economy

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Authors: Algia Hammami, Abdelfatteh Bouri

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In this work, our objective is to study the transmission of volatility between oil and stock markets in developed (USA, Germany, Italy, France and Japan) and emerging countries (Tunisia, Thailand, Brazil, Argentina, and Jordan) for the period 1998-2015. Our methodology consists of analyzing the monthly data by the GARCH-BEKK model to capture the effect in terms of volatility in the variation of the oil price on the different stock market. The empirical results in the emerging countries indicate that the relationships are unidirectional from the stock market to the oil market. For the developed countries, we find that the transmission of volatility is unidirectional from the oil market to stock market. For the USA and Italy, we find no transmission between the two markets. The transmission is bi-directional only in Thailand. Following our estimates, we also noticed that the emerging countries influence almost the same extent as the developed countries, while at the transmission of volatility there a bid difference. The GARCH-BEKK model is more effective than the others versions to minimize the risk of an oil-stock portfolio.

Keywords: GARCH, oil prices, stock market, volatility transmission

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Authors: Mehari Teshome, Lara Agostini, Anna Nosella

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The current knowledge-based economy extends intellectual property rights (IPRs) legal research themes into a more strategic and organizational perspectives. From the diverse types of IPRs, patents are the strongest and well-known form of legal protection that influences commercial success and market value. Indeed, from our pilot survey, we understood that firms are less likely to manage their patents and actively used it as a tool for achieving competitive advantage rather they invest resource and efforts for patent application. To this regard, the literature also confirms that insights into how firms manage their patents from a holistic, strategic perspective, and how the portfolio value of patents can be optimized are scarce. Though patent management is an important business tool and there exist few scales to measure some dimensions of patent management, at the best of our knowledge, no systematic attempt has been made to develop a valid and comprehensive measure of it. Considering this theoretical and practical point of view, the aim of this article is twofold: to develop a framework for patent management encompassing all relevant dimensions with their respective constructs and measurement items, and to validate the measurement using survey data from practitioners. Methodology: We used six-step methodological approach (i.e., specify the domain of construct, item generation, scale purification, internal consistency assessment, scale validation, and replication). Accordingly, we carried out a systematic review of 182 articles on patent management, from ISI Web of Science. For each article, we mapped relevant constructs, their definition, and associated features, as well as items used to measure these constructs, when provided. This theoretical analysis was complemented by interviews with experts in patent management to get feedbacks that are more practical on how patent management is carried out in firms. Afterwards, we carried out a questionnaire survey to purify our scales and statistical validation. Findings: The analysis allowed us to design a framework for patent management, identifying its core dimensions (i.e., generation, portfolio-management, exploitation and enforcement, intelligence) and support dimensions (i.e., strategy and organization). Moreover, we identified the relevant activities for each dimension, as well as the most suitable items to measure them. For example, the core dimension generation includes constructs as: state-of-the-art analysis, freedom-to-operate analysis, patent watching, securing freedom-to-operate, patent potential and patent-geographical-scope. Originality and the Study Contribution: This study represents a first step towards the development of sound scales to measure patent management with an overarching approach, thus laying the basis for developing a recognized landmark within the research area of patent management. Practical Implications: The new scale can be used to assess the level of sophistication of the patent management of a company and compare it with other firms in the industry to evaluate their ability to manage the different activities involved in patent management. In addition, the framework resulting from this analysis can be used as a guide that supports managers to improve patent management in firms.

Keywords: patent, management, scale, development, intellectual property rights (IPRs)

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Authors: Yih-Wenn Laih

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In recent times, the dependence and co-movement among international financial markets have become stronger than in the past, as evidenced by commentaries in the news media and the financial sections of newspapers. Studying the co-movement between returns in financial markets is an important issue for portfolio management and risk management. The realization of co-movement helps investors to identify the opportunities for international portfolio management in terms of asset allocation and pricing. Since the election of the new Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, in November 2012, the yen has weakened against the US dollar from the 80 to the 120 level. The policies, known as “Abenomics,” are to encourage private investment through a more aggressive mix of monetary and fiscal policy. Given the close economic relations and competitions among Asia markets, it is interesting to discover the co-movement relations, affected by the depreciation of yen, between stock market of Japan and 5 major Asia stock markets, including China, Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan. Specifically, we devote ourselves to measure the co-movement of stock markets between Japan and each one of the 5 Asia stock markets in terms of rank correlation coefficients. To compute the coefficients, return series of each stock market is first fitted by a skewed-t GARCH (generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity) model. Secondly, to measure the dependence structure between matched stock markets, we employ the symmetrized Joe-Clayton (SJC) copula to calculate the probability density function of paired skewed-t distributions. The joint probability density function is then utilized as the scoring scheme to optimize the sequence alignment by dynamic programming method. Finally, we compute the rank correlation coefficients (Kendall's  and Spearman's ) between matched stock markets based on their aligned sequences. We collect empirical data of 6 stock indexes from Taiwan Economic Journal. The data is sampled at a daily frequency covering the period from January 1, 2013 to July 31, 2015. The empirical distributions of returns indicate fatter tails than the normal distribution. Therefore, the skewed-t distribution and SJC copula are appropriate for characterizing the data. According to the computed Kendall’s τ, Korea has the strongest co-movement relation with Japan, followed by Taiwan, China, and Singapore; the weakest is Hong Kong. On the other hand, the Spearman’s ρ reveals that the strength of co-movement between markets with Japan in decreasing order are Korea, China, Taiwan, Singapore, and Hong Kong. We explore the effects of “Abenomics” on Asia stock markets by measuring the co-movement relation between Japan and five major Asia stock markets in terms of rank correlation coefficients. The matched markets are aligned by a hybrid method consisting of GARCH, copula and sequence alignment. Empirical experiments indicate that Korea has the strongest co-movement relation with Japan. The strength of China and Taiwan are better than Singapore. The Hong Kong market has the weakest co-movement relation with Japan.

Keywords: co-movement, depreciation of Yen, rank correlation, stock market

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Authors: Giriraj Achari, Malay Bhattacharyya

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In this paper, the effectiveness of Copula Markov Switching Multifractal (MSM) models at forecasting Value-at-Risk of a two-stock portfolio is studied. The innovations are allowed to be drawn from distributions that can capture skewness and leptokurtosis, which are well documented empirical characteristics observed in financial returns. The candidate distributions considered for this purpose are Johnson-SU, Pearson Type-IV and α-Stable distributions. The two univariate marginal distributions are combined using the Student-t copula. The estimation of all parameters is performed by Maximum Likelihood Estimation. Finally, the models are compared in terms of accurate Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasts using tests of unconditional coverage and independence. It is found that Copula-MSM-models with leptokurtic innovation distributions perform slightly better than Copula-MSM model with Normal innovations. Copula-MSM models, in general, produce better VaR forecasts as compared to traditional methods like Historical Simulation method, Variance-Covariance approach and Copula-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (Copula-GARCH) models.

Keywords: Copula, Markov Switching, multifractal, value-at-risk

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Authors: Beata Wentura-Dudek

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In the United States in 2007-2010 before the crisis, the US labour market policy focused mainly on providing residents with unemployment insurance, after the recession this policy changed. The aim of the article was to present quantitative research presenting the most effective labor market instruments contributing to reducing unemployment during the crisis in the USA. The article presents research based on the analysis of available documents and statistical data. The results of the conducted research show that the most effective forms of counteracting unemployment at that time were: direct job creation, job search assistance, subsidized employment, training and employment promotion using new technologies, including social media.

Keywords: lotteries, loyalty programs, competitions, bonus sales, rebate campaigns

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Authors: A. A. Behroozpoor, M. M. Mazarei

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In this paper, a fuzzy recurrent neural network is proposed for solving the classical quadratic control problem subject to linear equality and bound constraints. The convergence of the state variables of the proposed neural network to achieve solution optimality is guaranteed.

Keywords: REFERENCES [1] Xia, Y, A new neural network for solving linear and quadratic programming problems. IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks, 7(6), 1996, pp.1544–1548. [2] Xia, Y., & Wang, J, A recurrent neural network for solving nonlinear convex programs subject to linear constraints. IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks, 16(2), 2005, pp. 379–386. [3] Xia, Y., H, Leung, & J, Wang, A projection neural network and its application to constrained optimization problems. IEEE Transactions Circuits and Systems-I, 49(4), 2002, pp.447–458.B. [4] Q. Liu, Z. Guo, J. Wang, A one-layer recurrent neural network for constrained seudoconvex optimization and its application for dynamic portfolio optimization. Neural Networks, 26, 2012, pp. 99-109.

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Authors: Syamsul Syafiq, Maslina Daud, Hafizah Hasan, Ahmad Zairi, Shazil Imri, Ezaini Akmar, Norbazilah Rahim

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Over recent years, web development has changed significantly. Driven largely by the rise of trends like mobiles, the world of development is rapidly evolving. The rise of the Internet makes web applications crucial nowadays. The web application has been an interface for a company and one of the ways they present their portfolio to the client. On the other hand, the web has become part of the file management system which takes over the role of paper. Due to high demand in web applications, developers are required to develop a web application that are cost-effective, secure and well coded. A framework has been proposed to develop an application rather than using library style development. The framework is helping the developer in creating the structure of a web automatically. This paper will compare the advantages and disadvantages of web development using framework against library-style development. This comparison is based on a previous research paper focusing on two main indicators, which are the impact to management and impact to the developer.

Keywords: framework, library style development, web application development, traditional web, static web, dynamic web

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Authors: Ya-Hui Wang

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Lower speech therapy rate of tracheostomized patient was noted in comparison with previous researches. This study is aim to shed light on the referral status of speech therapy in those patients in Taiwan. This study developed an analysis for the size and key characteristics of the population of tracheostomized in-patient in the Taiwan. Method: We analyzed National Healthcare Insurance data (The Collaboration Center of Health Information Application, CCHIA) from Jan 1 2010 to Dec 31 2010. Result: over ages 3, number of tracheostomized in-patient is directly proportional to age. A high service loading was observed in North region in comparison with other regions. Only 4.87% of the tracheostomized in-patients were referred for speech therapy, and 1.9% for swallow examination, 2.5% for communication evaluation.

Keywords: refer, speech therapy, training, rehabilitation

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Authors: Muhammad Sheraz, Vasile Preda, Silvia Dedu

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Concepts of econophysics are usually used to solve problems related to uncertainty and nonlinear dynamics. In the theory of option pricing the risk neutral probabilities play very important role. The application of entropy in finance can be regarded as the extension of both information entropy and the probability entropy. It can be an important tool in various financial methods such as measure of risk, portfolio selection, option pricing and asset pricing. Gulko applied Entropy Pricing Theory (EPT) for pricing stock options and introduced an alternative framework of Black-Scholes model for pricing European stock option. In this article, we present solutions to maximum entropy problems based on Tsallis, Weighted-Tsallis, Kaniadakis, Weighted-Kaniadakies entropies, to obtain risk-neutral densities. We have also obtained the value of European call and put in this framework.

Keywords: option pricing, Black-Scholes model, Tsallis entropy, Kaniadakis entropy, weighted entropy, risk-neutral density

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Authors: Prasansha Kumari

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Financial Literacy is the possession of knowledge and understanding of financial matters. Financial Literacy often entails the knowledge of properly making decisions pertaining to certain personal financial areas like real estate, insurance investing, and savings. This paper intends to identify and analyze the financial knowledge among university undergraduates by using 200 undergraduates in four faculties of University of Kelaniya, Sri Lanka. Collected data will be analyzed by descriptive research method using SPSS package. Expected outcomes are considerable percentage of undergraduates have basic knowledge on financial matters while it has a law percentage for advanced financial literacy among undergraduates. Students from faculty of Commerce and Management and Science have good understanding about financial matters than undergraduates in other two faculties

Keywords: advanced finance, undergraduates, financial literacy, savings

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Authors: Tarik Bazgour, Cedric Heuchenne, Danielle Sougne

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We examine time variation in the market beta of portfolios sorted on quality, liquidity level and liquidity beta characteristics across stock market phases. Using US stock market data for the period 1970-2010, we find, first, the US stock market was driven by four regimes. Second, during the crisis regime, low (high) quality, high (low) liquidity beta and illiquid (liquid) stocks exhibit an increase (a decrease) in their market betas. This finding is consistent with the flight-to-quality and liquidity phenomena. Third, we document the same pattern across stocks when the market volatility is low. We argue that, during low volatility times, investors shift their portfolios towards low quality and illiquid stocks to seek portfolio gains. The pattern observed in the tranquil regime can be, therefore, explained by a flight-to-low-quality and to illiquidity. Finally, our results reveal that liquidity level is more important than liquidity beta during the crisis regime.

Keywords: financial crises, quality, liquidity, liquidity risk, regime-switching models

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Authors: Dongping Fang, Lian Duan, Xiaojing Yuan, Mike Xu, Allyn Klunder, Kevin Tan, Suiting Cao, Yeqing Ji

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Accurate prediction of a medical condition with straight clinical evidence is a long-sought topic in the medical management and health insurance field. Although great progress has been made with machine learning algorithms, the medical community is still, to a certain degree, suspicious about the model's accuracy and interpretability. This paper presents an innovative hierarchical attention deep learning model to achieve good prediction and clear interpretability that can be easily understood by medical professionals. This deep learning model uses a hierarchical attention structure that matches naturally with the medical history data structure and reflects the member’s encounter (date of service) sequence. The model attention structure consists of 3 levels: (1) attention on the medical code types (diagnosis codes, procedure codes, lab test results, and prescription drugs), (2) attention on the sequential medical encounters within a type, (3) attention on the medical codes within an encounter and type. This model is applied to predict the occurrence of stage 3 chronic kidney disease (CKD3), using three years’ medical history of Medicare Advantage (MA) members from a top health insurance company. The model takes members’ medical events, both claims and electronic medical record (EMR) data, as input, makes a prediction of CKD3 and calculates the contribution from individual events to the predicted outcome. The model outcome can be easily explained with the clinical evidence identified by the model algorithm. Here are examples: Member A had 36 medical encounters in the past three years: multiple office visits, lab tests and medications. The model predicts member A has a high risk of CKD3 with the following well-contributed clinical events - multiple high ‘Creatinine in Serum or Plasma’ tests and multiple low kidneys functioning ‘Glomerular filtration rate’ tests. Among the abnormal lab tests, more recent results contributed more to the prediction. The model also indicates regular office visits, no abnormal findings of medical examinations, and taking proper medications decreased the CKD3 risk. Member B had 104 medical encounters in the past 3 years and was predicted to have a low risk of CKD3, because the model didn’t identify diagnoses, procedures, or medications related to kidney disease, and many lab test results, including ‘Glomerular filtration rate’ were within the normal range. The model accurately predicts members A and B and provides interpretable clinical evidence that is validated by clinicians. Without extra effort, the interpretation is generated directly from the model and presented together with the occurrence date. Our model uses the medical data in its most raw format without any further data aggregation, transformation, or mapping. This greatly simplifies the data preparation process, mitigates the chance for error and eliminates post-modeling work needed for traditional model explanation. To our knowledge, this is the first paper on an interpretable deep-learning model using a 3-level attention structure, sourcing both EMR and claim data, including all 4 types of medical data, on the entire Medicare population of a big insurance company, and more importantly, directly generating model interpretation to support user decision. In the future, we plan to enrich the model input by adding patients’ demographics and information from free-texted physician notes.

Keywords: deep learning, interpretability, attention, big data, medical conditions

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Authors: Anna M. Pretorius

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The emerging markets category for portfolio investment was introduced in 1986 in an attempt to promote capital market development in less developed countries. Investors traditionally diversified their portfolios by investing in different developed markets. However, high growth opportunities forced investors to consider emerging markets as well. Examples include the rapid growth of the “Asian Tigers” during the 1980s, growth in Latin America during the 1990s and the increased interest in emerging markets during the global financial crisis. As such, portfolio flows to emerging markets have increased substantially. In 2002 7% of all equity allocations from advanced economies went to emerging markets; this increased to 20% in 2012. The stronger links between advanced and emerging markets led to increased synchronization of asset price movements. This increased level of stock market integration for emerging markets is confirmed by various empirical studies. Against the background of increased interest in emerging market assets and the increasing level of integration of emerging markets, this paper focuses on the determinants of stock market integration of emerging market countries. Various studies have linked the level of financial market integration with specific economic variables. These variables include: economic growth, local inflation, trade openness, local investment, budget surplus/ deficit, market capitalization, domestic bank credit, domestic institutional and legal environment and world interest rates. The aim of this study is to empirically investigate to what extent trade-related determinants have an impact on stock market integration. The panel data sample include data of 16 emerging market countries: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Czech Republic, Hungary, India, Malaysia, Pakistan, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Russian Federation, South Africa, Thailand and Turkey for the period 1998-2011. The integration variable for each emerging stock market is calculated as the explanatory power of a multi-factor model. These factors are extracted from a large panel of global stock market returns. Trade related explanatory variables include: exports as percentage of GDP, imports as percentage of GDP and total trade as percentage of GDP. Other macroeconomic indicators – such as market capitalisation, the size of the budget deficit and the effectiveness of the regulation of the securities exchange – are included in the regressions as control variables. An initial analysis on a sample of developed stock markets could not identify any significant determinants of stock market integration. Thus the macroeconomic variables identified in the literature are much more significant in explaining stock market integration of emerging markets than stock market integration of developed markets. The three trade variables are all statistically significant at a 5% level. The market capitalisation variable is also significant while the regulation variable is only marginally significant. The global financial crisis has highlighted the urgency to better understand the link between the financial and real sectors of the economy. This paper comes to the important finding that, apart from the level of market capitalisation (as financial indicator), trade (representative of the real economy) is a significant determinant of stock market integration of countries not yet classified as developed economies.

Keywords: emerging markets, financial market integration, panel data, trade

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Authors: Mingxia Zhu, Matthew Tingchi Liu

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AI grows gradually in the market with its efficiency and accuracy, influencing people’s perceptions, attitude, and even consequential behaviors. Current study extends prior research by focusing on AI’s impact on consumers’ morality. First, study 1 tested individuals’ believes about AI and human’s moral perceptions and people’s attribution of moral worth to AI and human. Moral perception refers to a computational system an entity maintains to detect and identify moral violations, while moral worth here denotes whether individual regard an entity as worthy of moral treatment. To identify the effect of AI on consumers’ morality, two studies were employed. Study 1 is a within-subjects survey, while study 2 is an experimental study. In the study 1, one hundred and forty participants were recruited through online survey company in China (M_age = 27.31 years, SD = 7.12 years; 65% female). The participants were asked to assign moral perception and moral worth to AI and human. A paired samples t-test reveals that people generally regard that human has higher moral perception (M_Human = 6.03, SD = .86) than AI (M_AI = 2.79, SD = 1.19; t(139) = 27.07, p < .001; Cohen’s d = 1.41). In addition, another paired samples t-test results showed that people attributed higher moral worth to the human personnel (M_Human = 6.39, SD = .56) compared with AIs (M_AI = 5.43, SD = .85; t(139) = 12.96, p < .001; d = .88). In the next study, two hundred valid samples were recruited from survey company in China (M_age = 27.87 years, SD = 6.68 years; 55% female) and the participants were randomly assigned to two conditions (AI vs. human). After viewing the stimuli of human versus AI, participants are informed that one insurance company would determine the price purely based on their declaration. Therefore, their open-ended answers were coded into ethical, honest behavior and unethical, dishonest behavior according to the design of prior literature. A Chi-square analysis revealed that 64% of the participants would immorally lie towards AI insurance inspector while 42% of participants reported deliberately lower mileage facing with human inspector (χ^2 (1) = 9.71, p = .002). Similarly, the logistic regression results suggested that people would significantly more likely to report fraudulent answer when facing with AI (β = .89, odds ratio = 2.45, Wald = 9.56, p = .002). It is demonstrated that people would be more likely to behave unethically in front of non-human agents, such as AI agent, rather than human. The research findings shed light on new practical ethical issues in human-AI interaction and address the important role of human employees during the process of service delivery in the new era of AI.

Keywords: AI agent, consumer morality, ethical behavior, human-AI interaction

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Authors: Siddhant Sahu, P. James Daniel Paul

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Technical analysis comprised by various technical indicators is a holistic way of representing price movement of stocks in the market. Various forms of indicators have evolved from the primitive ones in the past decades. There have been many attempts to introduce volume as a major determinant to determine strong patterns in market forecasting. The law of demand defines the relationship between the volume and price. Most of the traders are familiar with the volume game. Including the time dimension to the law of demand provides a different visualization to the theory. While attempting the same, it was found that there are different thresholds in the market for different companies. These thresholds have a significant influence on the price. This article is an attempt in determining the thresholds for companies using the three dimensional graphs for optimizing the portfolios. It also emphasizes on the magnitude of importance of volumes as a key factor for determining of predicting strong price movements, bullish and bearish markets. It uses a comprehensive data set of major companies which form a major chunk of the Indian automotive sector and are thus used as an illustration.

Keywords: technical analysis, expert system, law of demand, stocks, portfolio analysis, Indian automotive sector

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Authors: Josip Arneric, Blanka Skrabic Peric

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Forecasting of volatility, i.e. returns fluctuations, has been a topic of interest to portfolio managers, option traders and market makers in order to get higher profits or less risky positions. Based on the fact that volatility is time varying in high frequency data and that periods of high volatility tend to cluster, the most common used models are GARCH type models. As standard GARCH models show high volatility persistence, i.e. integrated behaviour of the conditional variance, it is difficult the predict volatility using standard GARCH models. Due to practical limitations of these models different approaches have been proposed in the literature, based on Markov switching models. In such situations models in which the parameters are allowed to change over time are more appropriate because they allow some part of the model to depend on the state of the economy. The empirical analysis demonstrates that Markov switching GARCH model resolves the problem of excessive persistence and outperforms uni-regime GARCH models in forecasting volatility for selected emerging markets.

Keywords: emerging markets, Markov switching, GARCH model, transition probabilities

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Authors: Uwizera Egide

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Introduction: Dermatological conditions are one of the most burdensome diseases in our health system. Global studies suggest that around 1 in 3 people gets a skin disease at a certain point in their life, though this does not necessarily guarantee the urge to consult. For a high-ranking disease, it is surprising how there is not enough data to support its effect on the economy and the general health system impact. It is for that reason that this study’s aim is to identify the burden of dermatological conditions in Rwanda so as to have a general picture of what our population is going through in regards to dermatological conditions. Methods: We used a cross sectional retrospective study. Data were obtained from patient’s information recorded in an open clinic at CHUB in a period of six months from July to December of the year 2021. Results: The study had a total of 4600 patients who attended dermatology service in a period of six months from July to December of the year 2021. We found a list of 102 dermatological diseases that presented at variable rates. The most prevalent disease was atopic dermatitis, at a rate of 23%. About 90% of presented conditions had only one choice of treatment from the hospital pharmacy. Most patients who presented were between 18-35 years old and with a predominance of the female gender; the level of education was either secondary or University Degree in our study, 65.4% of patients who presented were female; the majority, around 45% were between 18-35 years old, mostly being single 56%. The majority came from Southern province as it is the location of the hospital. The insurance mostly used was community-based health insurance with 63.8%, followed by RSSB with 18.5%, MS/UR, and other private insurances. The frequency of group drugs prescribed among all dermatological medications, steroids were the most commonly given medications at a rate of 39%, followed by emollients, antibiotics, and antifungal. The drugs prescribed were mostly available in the pharmacy of CHUB, with 60% and 40% being found in pharmacies outside the hospital. Conclusion: Dermatological conditions are prevalent in all age groups and distributed through all socioeconomic classes. About 9.2% of patient who consulted CHUB in 2021 presented one Dermatological condition of which 40 % of prescribed medications is never found in Hospital urging a need to buy medication in private pharmacies with more expenses and a risk of not complying on prescribed medication if in case they can’t afford paying them outside the CHUB. This finding urges a need to avail all essential dermatological drugs in hospital pharmacies to allow our patients to get them for the proper compliance of prescribed drugs in the management of skin diseases.

Keywords: atopic dermatitis, CHUB (centre hopitalier univerisitaire de butare), dermatological condition, fungal infections

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Authors: Matthew Cardeiro, Amalia D. Ardeljan, Lexi Frankel, Dianela Prado Escobar, Catalina Molnar, Omar M. Rashid

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Introduction: Enterococci comprise the natural flora of nearly all animals and are ubiquitous in food manufacturing and probiotics. However, its role in the microbiome remains controversial. The gut microbiome has shown to play an important role in immunology and cancer. Further, recent data has suggested a relationship between gut microbiota and breast cancer. These studies have shown that the gut microbiome of patients with breast cancer differs from that of healthy patients. Research regarding enterococcus infection and its sequala is limited, and further research is needed in order to understand the relationship between infection and cancer. Enterococcus may prevent the development of breast cancer (BC) through complex immunologic and microbiotic adaptations following an enterococcus infection. This study investigated the effect of enterococcus infection and the incidence of BC. Methods: A retrospective study (January 2010- December 2019) was provided by a Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA) compliant national database and conducted using a Humans Health Insurance Database. International Classification of Disease (ICD) 9th and 10th codes, Current Procedural Terminology (CPT), and National Drug Codes were used to identify BC diagnosis and enterococcus infection. Patients were matched for age, sex, Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), antibiotic treatment, and region of residence. Chi-squared, logistic regression, and odds ratio were implemented to assess the significance and estimate relative risk. Results: 671 out of 28,518 (2.35%) patients with a prior enterococcus infection and 1,459 out of 28,518 (5.12%) patients without enterococcus infection subsequently developed BC, and the difference was statistically significant (p<2.2x10⁻¹⁶). Logistic regression also indicated enterococcus infection was associated with a decreased incidence of BC (RR=0.60, 95% CI [0.57, 0.63]). Treatment for enterococcus infection was analyzed and controlled for in both enterococcus infected and noninfected populations. 398 out of 11,523 (3.34%) patients with a prior enterococcus infection and treated with antibiotics were compared to 624 out of 11,523 (5.41%) patients with no history of enterococcus infection (control) and received antibiotic treatment. Both populations subsequently developed BC. Results remained statistically significant (p<2.2x10-16) with a relative risk of 0.57 (95% CI [0.54, 0.60]). Conclusion & Discussion: This study shows a statistically significant correlation between enterococcus infection and a decrease incidence of breast cancer. Further exploration is needed to identify and understand not only the role of enterococcus in the microbiome but also the protective mechanism(s) and impact enterococcus infection may have on breast cancer development. Ultimately, further research is needed in order to understand the complex and intricate relationship between the microbiome, immunology, bacterial infections, and carcinogenesis.

Keywords: breast cancer, enterococcus, immunology, infection, microbiome

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Authors: S. Malarvizhi, S. Sadiq Basha, M. Santhosh Kumar, K. Saravanan, R. Sasikumar, R. Satheesh

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This is a web based application which provides authorization for the vehicle identification and registration. It also provides mutual authentication between the police and users in order to avoid misusage. The QR code generation in this application overcomes the difficulty in the manual registration of the vehicle documents. This generated QR code is placed in the number plates of the vehicles. The QR code is scanned using the QR Reader installed in the smart devices. The police officials can check the vehicle details and file cases on accidents, theft and traffic rules violations using QR code. In addition to vehicle insurance payments and renewals, the renewal alert is sent to the vehicle owner about payment deadline. The non-permitted vehicles can be blocked in the next check-post by sending the alert messages.

Keywords: QR code, QR reader, registration, authentication, idenfication

Procedia PDF Downloads 453

Authors: Erez Cohen

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The study examines the socioeconomic impact of development of an advanced industry in Israel. The research method is based on data collected from the Israel Central Bureau of Statistics and from the National Insurance Institute (NII) databases, which provided information that allows to examine the Economic and Social Changes during the 1990s. The study examined the socioeconomic effects of the development of advanced industry in Israel. The research findings indicate that as a result of globalization processes, the weight of traditional industry began to diminish as a result of factory closures and the laying off of workers. These circumstances led to growing unemployment among the weaker groups in Israeli society, detracting from their income and thus increasing inequality among different socioeconomic groups in Israel and enhancement of social disparities.

Keywords: globalization, Israeli advanced industry, public policy, socio-economic indicators

Procedia PDF Downloads 126

Authors: Joseph M. Njoroge

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The need for urgent adaptation have triggered tourism stakeholders and research community to develop generic adaptation framework(s) for national, regional and or local tourism desti-nations. Such frameworks have been proposed to guide the tourism industry in the adaptation process with an aim of reducing tourism industry’s vulnerability and to enhance their ability to cope to climate associated externalities. However research show that current approaches are far from sustainability since the adaptation options sought are usually closely associated with development needs-‘business as usual’-where the implication of adaptation to social justice and environmental integrity are often neglected. Based on this view there is a need to look at adaptation beyond addressing vulnerability and resilience to include the need for adaptation to enhance social justice and environmental integrity. This paper reviews the existing adaptation frameworks/models and evaluates their suitability in enhancing sustainable adaptation for regional tourist destinations. It is noted that existing frameworks contradicts the basic ‘principles of sustainable adaptation’. Further attempts are made to propose a Sustainable Regional Tourism Adaptation Framework (SRTAF) to assist regional tourism stakeholders in the achieving sustainable adaptation.

Keywords: sustainable adaptation, sustainability principles, sustainability portfolio, Regional Tourism

Procedia PDF Downloads 361

Authors: Lindrianasari Stefanie, Aminah Khairudin

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This study aims to provide empirical evidence regarding the ability of Price to Earnings Ratio and PEG Ratio in predicting future stock returns issuers. The samples used in this study are stocks that go into LQ45. The main contribution is to assign empirical evidence if the PEG Ratio can provide optimum return compared to Price to Earnings Ratio. This study used a sample of the entire company into the group LQ45 with the period of observation. The data used is limited to the financial statements of a company incorporated in LQ45 period July 2013-July 2014, using the financial statements and the position of the company's closing stock price at the end of 2010 as a reference benchmark for the growth of the company's stock price compared to the closing price of 2013. This study found that the method of PEG Ratio can outperform the method of PE ratio in predicting future returns on the stock portfolio of LQ45.

Keywords: price to earnings growth, price to earnings ratio, future returns, stock price

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Authors: S. Masud, J. Merson, D. F. Robinson

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The management of environmental resources requires engagement of a range of stakeholders including public/private agencies and different community groups to implement sustainable conservation practices. The challenge which is often ignored is the analysis of agencies involved and their power relations. One of the barriers identified is the difference in risk perceptions among the agencies involved that leads to disjointed efforts of assessing and managing risks. Wood et al 2012, explains that it is important to have an integrated approach to risk management where decision makers address stakeholder perspectives. This is critical for an effective risk management policy. This abstract is part of a PhD research that looks into barriers to flood management under a changing climate and intends to identify bottlenecks that create maladaptation. Experiences are drawn from international practices in the UK and examined in the context of Australia through exploring the flood governance in a highly flood-prone region in Australia: the Hawkesbury Ne-pean catchment as a case study. In this research study several aspects of governance and management are explored: (i) the complexities created by the way different agencies are involved in assessing flood risks (ii) different perceptions on acceptable flood risk level; (iii) perceptions on community engagement in defining acceptable flood risk level; (iv) Views on a holistic flood risk management approach; and, (v) challenges of centralised information system. The study concludes that the complexity of managing a large catchment is exacerbated by the difference in the way professionals perceive the problem. This has led to: (a) different standards for acceptable risks; (b) inconsistent attempt to set-up a regional scale flood management plan beyond the jurisdictional boundaries: (c) absence of a regional scale agency with license to share and update information (d) Lack of forums for dialogue with insurance companies to ensure an integrated approach to flood management. The research takes the Hawkesbury-Nepean catchment as case example and draws from literary evidence from around the world. In addition, conclusions were extrapolated from eighteen semi-structured interviews from agencies involved in flood risk management in the Hawkesbury-Nepean catchment of NSW, Australia. The outcome of this research is to provide a better understanding of complexity in assessing risks against a rapidly changing climate and contribute towards developing effective risk communication strategies thus enabling better management of floods and achieving increased level of support from insurance companies, real-estate agencies, state and regional risk managers and the affected communities.

Keywords: adaptive governance, flood management, flood risk communication, stakeholder risk perceptions

Procedia PDF Downloads 256