Search results for: forecasts in Brazilian regulation
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1911

Search results for: forecasts in Brazilian regulation

1911 The Regulation on Human Exposure to Electromagnetic Fields for Brazilian Power System

Authors: Hugo Manoel Olivera Da Silva, Ricardo Silva Thé Pontes

Abstract:

In this work, is presented an analysis of the Brazilian regulation on human exposure to electromagnetic fields, which provides limits to electric fields, magnetic and electromagnetic fields. The regulations for the electricity sector was in charge of the Agência Nacional de Energia Elétrica-ANEEL, the Brazilian Electricity Regulatory Agency, that made it through the Normative Resolution Nº 398/2010, resulting in a series of obligations for the agents of the electricity sector, especially in the areas of generation, transmission, and distribution.

Keywords: adverse effects, electric energy, electric and magnetic fields, human health, regulation

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1910 Three or Four Tonics and a Wave: The Trajectory of Health Insurance Regulation in Brazil

Authors: João Boaventura Branco De Matos

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Currently, in Brazil, there is a considerable collection of publications on the supplementary health sector, but the vast majority is limited to retrospective examination of the sector. The present contribution starts from the diagnosis of an overwhelming change in the role of the State and its institutions, as well as an accelerated and no less forceful change in the way of producing goods and services, resulting in a clash between these different waves (state and market). This shock produces unique energy, capable of imposing major changes in the most varied sectors. Based on this diagnosis, there was an opportunity to offer the perspective and propositional study of regulatory measures relevant to the best conduct and performance of this sector in the future.

Keywords: private health regulation, state and market, forecasts in Brazilian regulation, political economy

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1909 Evaluation of Football Forecasting Models: 2021 Brazilian Championship Case Study

Authors: Flavio Cordeiro Fontanella, Asla Medeiros e Sá, Moacyr Alvim Horta Barbosa da Silva

Abstract:

In the present work, we analyse the performance of football results forecasting models. In order to do so, we have performed the data collection from eight different forecasting models during the 2021 Brazilian football season. First, we guide the analysis through visual representations of the data, designed to highlight the most prominent features and enhance the interpretation of differences and similarities between the models. We propose using a 2-simplex triangle to investigate visual patterns from the results forecasting models. Next, we compute the expected points for every team playing in the championship and compare them to the final league standings, revealing interesting contrasts between actual to expected performances. Then, we evaluate forecasts’ accuracy using the Ranked Probability Score (RPS); models comparison accounts for tiny scale differences that may become consistent in time. Finally, we observe that the Wisdom of Crowds principle can be appropriately applied in the context, driving into a discussion of results forecasts usage in practice. This paper’s primary goal is to encourage football forecasts’ performance discussion. We hope to accomplish it by presenting appropriate criteria and easy-to-understand visual representations that can point out the relevant factors of the subject.

Keywords: accuracy evaluation, Brazilian championship, football results forecasts, forecasting models, visual analysis

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1908 Strategic Environmental Assessment and Climate Change: From European Experiences to Brazilian Needs

Authors: Amália S. Botter Fabbri

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This paper proposes the analysis of the Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) in relation to the three pillars of the sustainable development, highlighting its particular importance to combat climate change. Theoretical and practical examples from Europe show how SEA has been implemented under the SEA Directive in the recent years, while the Brazilian case study shows a situation in which no regulation on SEA was implemented, despite the strong demand for it, as revealed by past experiences and future planning needs. In the end, some aspects to the formulation of a SEA Act are suggested, in an attempt to contribute to a better Brazilian environmental governance in relation to the future plans, programmes and policies required to the reduction of greenhouse gases emissions.

Keywords: Brazil, climate change, Europe, strategic environmental assessment

Procedia PDF Downloads 245
1907 Currency Exchange Rate Forecasts Using Quantile Regression

Authors: Yuzhi Cai

Abstract:

In this paper, we discuss a Bayesian approach to quantile autoregressive (QAR) time series model estimation and forecasting. Together with a combining forecasts technique, we then predict USD to GBP currency exchange rates. Combined forecasts contain all the information captured by the fitted QAR models at different quantile levels and are therefore better than those obtained from individual models. Our results show that an unequally weighted combining method performs better than other forecasting methodology. We found that a median AR model can perform well in point forecasting when the predictive density functions are symmetric. However, in practice, using the median AR model alone may involve the loss of information about the data captured by other QAR models. We recommend that combined forecasts should be used whenever possible.

Keywords: combining forecasts, MCMC, predictive density functions, quantile forecasting, quantile modelling

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1906 Between Legal Authority and Epistemic Competence: A Case Study of the Brazilian Supreme Court

Authors: Júlia Massadas

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The objective of this paper is to analyze the role played by the institute of the public hearings in the Brazilian Supreme Court. The public hearings are regulated since 1999 by the Brazilian Laws nº 9.868, nº 9.882 and by the Intern Regiment of the Brazilian Supreme Court. According to this legislation, the public hearings are supposed to be called when a matter of circumstance of fact must be clarified, what can be done through the hearing of the testimonies of persons with expertise and authority in the theme related to the cause. This work aims to investigate what is the role played by the public hearings and by the experts in the Brazilian Supreme Court. The hypothesis of this research is that: (I) The public hearings in the Brazilian Supreme Court are used to uphold a rhetoric of a democratic legitimacy of the Court`s decisions; (II) The Legislative intentions have been distorted. To test this hypothesis, the adopted methodology involves an empirical study of the Brazilian jurisprudence. As a conclusion, it follows that the public hearings convened by the Brazilian Supreme Court do not correspond, in practice, to the role assigned to them by the Congress since they do not serve properly to epistemic interests. The public hearings not only do not legitimate democratically the decisions, but also, do not properly clarify technical issues.

Keywords: Brazilian Supreme Court, constitutional law, public hearings, epistemic competence, legal authority

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1905 Brazilian Sign Language: A Synthesis of the Research in the Period from 2000 to 2017

Authors: Maria da Gloria Guara-Tavares

Abstract:

This article reports a synthesis of the research in Brazilian Sign Language conducted from 2000 to 2017. The objective of the synthesis was to identify the most researched areas and the most used methodologies. Articles published in three Brazilian journals of Translation Studies, unpublished dissertations and theses were included in the analysis. Abstracts and the method sections of the papers were scrutinized. Sixty studies were analyzed, and overall results indicate that the research in Brazilian Sign Language has been fragmented in several areas such as linguistic aspects, facial expressions, subtitling, identity issues, bilingualism, and interpretation strategies. Concerning research methods, the synthesis reveals that most research is qualitative in nature. Moreover, results show that the cognitive aspects of Brazilian Sign Language seem to be poorly explored. Implications for a future research agenda are also discussed.

Keywords: Brazilian sign language, qualitative methods, research agenda, synthesis

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1904 The Reliability of Management Earnings Forecasts in IPO Prospectuses: A Study of Managers’ Forecasting Preferences

Authors: Maha Hammami, Olfa Benouda Sioud

Abstract:

This study investigates the reliability of management earnings forecasts with reference to these two ingredients: verifiability and neutrality. Specifically, we examine the biasedness (or accuracy) of management earnings forecasts and company specific characteristics that can be associated with accuracy. Based on sample of 102 IPO prospectuses published for admission on NYSE Euronext Paris from 2002 to 2010, we found that these forecasts are on average optimistic and two of the five test variables, earnings variability and financial leverage are significant in explaining ex post bias. Acknowledging the possibility that the bias is the result of the managers’ forecasting behavior, we then examine whether managers decide to under-predict, over-predict or forecast accurately for self-serving purposes. Explicitly, we examine the role of financial distress, operating performance, ownership by insiders and the economy state in influencing managers’ forecasting preferences. We find that managers of distressed firms seem to over-predict future earnings. We also find that when managers are given more stock options, they tend to under-predict future earnings. Finally, we conclude that the management earnings forecasts are affected by an intentional bias due to managers’ forecasting preferences.

Keywords: intentional bias, management earnings forecasts, neutrality, verifiability

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1903 A Goal-Oriented Approach for Supporting Input/Output Factor Determination in the Regulation of Brazilian Electricity Transmission

Authors: Bruno de Almeida Vilela, Heinz Ahn, Ana Lúcia Miranda Lopes, Marcelo Azevedo Costa

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Benchmarking public utilities such as transmission system operators (TSOs) is one of the main strategies employed by regulators in order to fix monopolistic companies’ revenues. Since 2007 the Brazilian regulator has been utilizing Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to benchmark TSOs. Despite the application of DEA to improve the transmission sector’s efficiency, some problems can be pointed out, such as the high price of electricity in Brazil; the limitation of the benchmarking only to operational expenses (OPEX); the absence of variables that represent the outcomes of the transmission service; and the presence of extremely low and high efficiencies. As an alternative to the current concept of benchmarking the Brazilian regulator uses, we propose a goal-oriented approach. Our proposal supports input/output selection by taking traditional organizational goals and measures as a basis for the selection of factors for benchmarking purposes. As the main advantage, it resolves the classical DEA problems of input/output selection, undesirable and dual-role factors. We also provide a demonstration of our goal-oriented concept regarding service quality. As a result, most TSOs’ efficiencies in Brazil might improve when considering quality as important in their efficiency estimation.

Keywords: decision making, goal-oriented benchmarking, input/output factor determination, TSO regulation

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1902 Culture and Internationalization: A Study About Brazilian Companies in Bolivia

Authors: Renato Dias Baptista

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the elements of the cultural dimension in the internationalization process of Brazilian companies in Bolivia. This paper is based on research on two major Brazilian transnational companies which have plants in Bolivia. To achieve the objectives, the interconnective characteristics of culture in the process of productive internationalization were analyzed aiming to highlight it as a guiding element opposite the premises of the Brazilian leadership in the integration and development of the continent. The analysis aims to give relevance to the culture of a country and its relations with internationalization.

Keywords: interculturalism, transnational, internationalization, organizational development

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1901 The Dimensions of Culture in the Productive Internationalization Process: An Overview about Brazilian Companies in Bolivia

Authors: Renato Dias Baptista

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the elements of the cultural dimension in the internationalization process of Brazilian companies in Bolivia. This paper is based on research on two major Brazilian transnational companies which have plants in Bolivia. To achieve the objectives, the interconnective characteristics of culture in the process of productive internationalization were analyzed aiming to highlight it as a guiding element opposite the premises of the Brazilian leadership in the integration and development of the continent. The analysis aims to give relevance to the culture of a country and its relations with internationalization.

Keywords: culture, transnational, internationalization, Bolivia, Brazil

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1900 Brazilian Environmental Public Policies Analysis

Authors: Estela Macedo Alves

Abstract:

This paper is an overview on public policy analysis focused on the study of Brazilian public policy making process. The methodology is based on the review of some theories on the subject, linking them to Brazilian reality. The study presents basic policy analysis concepts, such as policy, polity and politics. It is emphasized John Kingdon's Multiple Stream Model, because of its clarifying aspects concerning public policies formulation process in democratic countries. In this path it was possible to establish interpretations on environmental public policies in Brazil and understand its methods, instead of presenting only a case study. At the end, it is possible to connect theory with Brazilian reality, identifying negative and positive points of its political processes and structure.

Keywords: Brazilian policies, environmental public policy, multiple stream model, public policy analysis

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1899 The Impact of Corporate Social Responsibility Information Disclosure on the Accuracy of Analysts' Earnings Forecasts

Authors: Xin-Hua Zhao

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In recent years, the growth rate of social responsibility reports disclosed by Chinese corporations has grown rapidly. The economic effects of the growing corporate social responsibility reports have become a hot topic. The article takes the chemical listed engineering corporations that disclose social responsibility reports in China as a sample, and based on the information asymmetry theory, examines the economic effect generated by corporate social responsibility disclosure with the method of ordinary least squares. The research is conducted from the perspective of analysts’ earnings forecasts and studies the impact of corporate social responsibility information disclosure on improving the accuracy of analysts' earnings forecasts. The results show that there is a statistically significant negative correlation between corporate social responsibility disclosure index and analysts’ earnings forecast error. The conclusions confirm that enterprises can reduce the asymmetry of social and environmental information by disclosing social responsibility reports, and thus improve the accuracy of analysts’ earnings forecasts. It can promote the effective allocation of resources in the market.

Keywords: analysts' earnings forecasts, corporate social responsibility disclosure, economic effect, information asymmetry

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1898 On the Added Value of Probabilistic Forecasts Applied to the Optimal Scheduling of a PV Power Plant with Batteries in French Guiana

Authors: Rafael Alvarenga, Hubert Herbaux, Laurent Linguet

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The uncertainty concerning the power production of intermittent renewable energy is one of the main barriers to the integration of such assets into the power grid. Efforts have thus been made to develop methods to quantify this uncertainty, allowing producers to ensure more reliable and profitable engagements related to their future power delivery. Even though a diversity of probabilistic approaches was proposed in the literature giving promising results, the added value of adopting such methods for scheduling intermittent power plants is still unclear. In this study, the profits obtained by a decision-making model used to optimally schedule an existing PV power plant connected to batteries are compared when the model is fed with deterministic and probabilistic forecasts generated with two of the most recent methods proposed in the literature. Moreover, deterministic forecasts with different accuracy levels were used in the experiments, testing the utility and the capability of probabilistic methods of modeling the progressively increasing uncertainty. Even though probabilistic approaches are unquestionably developed in the recent literature, the results obtained through a study case show that deterministic forecasts still provide the best performance if accurate, ensuring a gain of 14% on final profits compared to the average performance of probabilistic models conditioned to the same forecasts. When the accuracy of deterministic forecasts progressively decreases, probabilistic approaches start to become competitive options until they completely outperform deterministic forecasts when these are very inaccurate, generating 73% more profits in the case considered compared to the deterministic approach.

Keywords: PV power forecasting, uncertainty quantification, optimal scheduling, power systems

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1897 Forecasting Container Throughput: Using Aggregate or Terminal-Specific Data?

Authors: Gu Pang, Bartosz Gebka

Abstract:

We forecast the demand of total container throughput at the Indonesia’s largest seaport, Tanjung Priok Port. We propose four univariate forecasting models, including SARIMA, the additive Seasonal Holt-Winters, the multiplicative Seasonal Holt-Winters and the Vector Error Correction Model. Our aim is to provide insights into whether forecasting the total container throughput obtained by historical aggregated port throughput time series is superior to the forecasts of the total throughput obtained by summing up the best individual terminal forecasts. We test the monthly port/individual terminal container throughput time series between 2003 and 2013. The performance of forecasting models is evaluated based on Mean Absolute Error and Root Mean Squared Error. Our results show that the multiplicative Seasonal Holt-Winters model produces the most accurate forecasts of total container throughput, whereas SARIMA generates the worst in-sample model fit. The Vector Error Correction Model provides the best model fits and forecasts for individual terminals. Our results report that the total container throughput forecasts based on modelling the total throughput time series are consistently better than those obtained by combining those forecasts generated by terminal-specific models. The forecasts of total throughput until the end of 2018 provide an essential insight into the strategic decision-making on the expansion of port's capacity and construction of new container terminals at Tanjung Priok Port.

Keywords: SARIMA, Seasonal Holt-Winters, Vector Error Correction Model, container throughput

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1896 The Term Structure of Government Bond Yields in an Emerging Market: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan Bond Market

Authors: Wali Ullah, Muhammad Nishat

Abstract:

The study investigates the extent to which the so called Nelson-Siegel model (DNS) and its extended version that accounts for time varying volatility (DNS-EGARCH) can optimally fit the yield curve and predict its future path in the context of an emerging economy. For the in-sample fit, both models fit the curve remarkably well even in the emerging markets. However, the DNS-EGARCH model fits the curve slightly better than the DNS. Moreover, both specifications of yield curve that are based on the Nelson-Siegel functional form outperform the benchmark VAR forecasts at all forecast horizons. The DNS-EGARCH comes with more precise forecasts than the DNS for the 6- and 12-month ahead forecasts, while the two have almost similar performance in terms of RMSE for the very short forecast horizons.

Keywords: yield curve, forecasting, emerging markets, Kalman filter, EGARCH

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1895 An Investigation the Effectiveness of Emotion Regulation Training on the Reduction of Cognitive-Emotion Regulation Problem in Patients with Multiple Sclerosis

Authors: Mahboobeh Sadeghi, Zahra Izadi Khah, Mansour Hakim Javadi, Masoud Gholamali Lavasani

Abstract:

Background: Since there is a relation between psychological and physiological factors, the aim of this study was to examine the effect of Emotion Regulation training on cognitive emotion regulation problem in patients with Multiple Sclerosis(MS) Method: In a randomized clinical trial thirty patients diagnosed with Multiple Sclerosis referred to state welfare organization were selected. The sample group was randomized into either an experimental group or a nonintervention control group. The subjects participated in 75-minute treatment sessions held three times a week for 4weeks (12 sessions). All 30 individuals were administered with Cognitive Emotion Regulation questionnaire (CERQ). Participants completed the questionnaire in pretest and post-test. Data obtained from the questionnaire was analyzed using Mancova. Results: Emotion Regulation significantly decreased the Cognitive Emotion Regulation problems patients with Multiple sclerosis (p < 0.001). Conclusions: Emotion Regulation can be used for the treatment of cognitive-emotion regulation problem in Multiple sclerosis.

Keywords: Multiple Sclerosis, cognitive-emotion regulation, emotion regulation, MS

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1894 Price Regulation in Domestic Market: Incentives to Collude in the Deregulated Market

Authors: S. Avdasheva, D. Tsytsulina

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In many regulated industries over the world price cap as a method of price regulation replaces cost-plus pricing. It is a kind of incentive regulation introduced in order to enhance productive efficiency by strengthening sellers’ incentives for cost reduction as well as incentives for more efficient pricing. However pricing under cap is not neutral for competition in the market. We consider influence on competition on the markets where benchmark for cap is chosen from when sellers are multi-market. We argue that the impact of price cap regulation on market competition depends on the design of cap. More specifically if cap for one (regulated) market depends on the price of the supplier in other (non-regulated) market, there is sub-type of price cap regulation (known in Russian tariff regulation as ‘netback minus’) that enhance incentives to collude in non-regulated market.

Keywords: price regulation, competition, collusion

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1893 Estimation and Forecasting with a Quantile AR Model for Financial Returns

Authors: Yuzhi Cai

Abstract:

This talk presents a Bayesian approach to quantile autoregressive (QAR) time series model estimation and forecasting. We establish that the joint posterior distribution of the model parameters and future values is well defined. The associated MCMC algorithm for parameter estimation and forecasting converges to the posterior distribution quickly. We also present a combining forecasts technique to produce more accurate out-of-sample forecasts by using a weighted sequence of fitted QAR models. A moving window method to check the quality of the estimated conditional quantiles is developed. We verify our methodology using simulation studies and then apply it to currency exchange rate data. An application of the method to the USD to GBP daily currency exchange rates will also be discussed. The results obtained show that an unequally weighted combining method performs better than other forecasting methodology.

Keywords: combining forecasts, MCMC, quantile modelling, quantile forecasting, predictive density functions

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1892 Balancing Rule of Law, Human Rights and Governance

Authors: Torkan Jabbariraad

Abstract:

This study explores the role of private regulation as a mode of governance that engages non-state actors in establishing and implementing rules or standards for public goods or services. It examines the various forms, functions, and effects of private regulation on the rule of law and human rights and considers the role and duties of public authorities in monitoring and supporting private regulation. It contends that private regulation should be regarded as a beneficial supplement to public regulation rather than a substitute or rival and that public authorities should find a balance between acknowledging the independence and variety of private actors and securing their accountability and legitimacy. It also recommends that applying the principles and values of good governance to private regulation can improve its quality and efficiency. The study relies on various sources and viewpoints from the literature on governance theory, public law, and human rights and suggests further research and discussion on the topic of private regulation and its consequences for society.

Keywords: private regulation, public authority, governance theory, rule of law, human rights

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1891 Downscaling Seasonal Sea Surface Temperature Forecasts over the Mediterranean Sea Using Deep Learning

Authors: Redouane Larbi Boufeniza, Jing-Jia Luo

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This study assesses the suitability of deep learning (DL) for downscaling sea surface temperature (SST) over the Mediterranean Sea in the context of seasonal forecasting. We design a set of experiments that compare different DL configurations and deploy the best-performing architecture to downscale one-month lead forecasts of June–September (JJAS) SST from the Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Climate Forecast System version 1.0 (NUIST-CFS1.0) for the period of 1982–2020. We have also introduced predictors over a larger area to include information about the main large-scale circulations that drive SST over the Mediterranean Sea region, which improves the downscaling results. Finally, we validate the raw model and downscaled forecasts in terms of both deterministic and probabilistic verification metrics, as well as their ability to reproduce the observed precipitation extreme and spell indicator indices. The results showed that the convolutional neural network (CNN)-based downscaling consistently improves the raw model forecasts, with lower bias and more accurate representations of the observed mean and extreme SST spatial patterns. Besides, the CNN-based downscaling yields a much more accurate forecast of extreme SST and spell indicators and reduces the significant relevant biases exhibited by the raw model predictions. Moreover, our results show that the CNN-based downscaling yields better skill scores than the raw model forecasts over most portions of the Mediterranean Sea. The results demonstrate the potential usefulness of CNN in downscaling seasonal SST predictions over the Mediterranean Sea, particularly in providing improved forecast products.

Keywords: Mediterranean Sea, sea surface temperature, seasonal forecasting, downscaling, deep learning

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1890 Forecasting Age-Specific Mortality Rates and Life Expectancy at Births for Malaysian Sub-Populations

Authors: Syazreen N. Shair, Saiful A. Ishak, Aida Y. Yusof, Azizah Murad

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In this paper, we forecast age-specific Malaysian mortality rates and life expectancy at births by gender and ethnic groups including Malay, Chinese and Indian. Two mortality forecasting models are adopted the original Lee-Carter model and its recent modified version, the product ratio coherent model. While the first forecasts the mortality rates for each subpopulation independently, the latter accounts for the relationship between sub-populations. The evaluation of both models is performed using the out-of-sample forecast errors which are mean absolute percentage errors (MAPE) for mortality rates and mean forecast errors (MFE) for life expectancy at births. The best model is then used to perform the long-term forecasts up to the year 2030, the year when Malaysia is expected to become an aged nation. Results suggest that in terms of overall accuracy, the product ratio model performs better than the original Lee-Carter model. The association of lower mortality group (Chinese) in the subpopulation model can improve the forecasts of high mortality groups (Malay and Indian).

Keywords: coherent forecasts, life expectancy at births, Lee-Carter model, product-ratio model, mortality rates

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1889 Teaching Translation in Brazilian Universities: A Study about the Possible Impacts of Translators’ Comments on the Cyberspace about Translator Education

Authors: Erica Lima

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The objective of this paper is to discuss relevant points about teaching translation in Brazilian universities and the possible impacts of blogs and social networks to translator education today. It is intended to analyze the curricula of Brazilian translation courses, contrasting them to information obtained from two social networking groups of great visibility in the area concerning essential characteristics to become a successful profession. Therefore, research has, as its main corpus, a few undergraduate translation programs’ syllabuses, as well as a few postings on social networks groups that specifically share professional opinions regarding the necessity for a translator to obtain a degree in translation to practice the profession. To a certain extent, such comments and their corresponding responses lead to the propagation of discourses which influence the ideas that aspiring translators and recent graduates end up having towards themselves and their undergraduate courses. The postings also show that many professionals do not have a clear position regarding the translator education; while refuting it, they also encourage “free” courses. It is thus observed that cyberspace constitutes, on the one hand, a place of mobilization of people in defense of similar ideas. However, on the other hand, it embodies a place of tension and conflict, in view of the fact that there are many participants and, as in any other situation of interlocution, disagreements may arise. From the postings, aspects related to professionalism were analyzed (including discussions about regulation), as well as questions about the classic dichotomies: theory/practice; art/technique; self-education/academic training. As partial result, the common interest regarding the valorization of the profession could be mentioned, although there is no consensus on the essential characteristics to be a good translator. It was also possible to observe that the set of socially constructed representations in the group reflects characteristics of the world situation of the translation courses (especially in some European countries and in the United States), which, in the first instance, does not accurately reflect the Brazilian idiosyncrasies of the area.

Keywords: cyberspace, teaching translation, translator education, university

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1888 How Participatory Climate Information Services Assist Farmers to Uptake Rice Disease Forecasts and Manage Diseases in Advance: Evidence from Coastal Bangladesh

Authors: Moriom Akter Mousumi, Spyridon Paparrizos, Fulco Ludwig

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Rice yield reduction due to climate change-induced disease occurrence is becoming a great concern for coastal farmers of Bangladesh. The development of participatory climate information services (CIS) based on farmers’ needs could implicitly facilitate farmers to get disease forecasts and make better decisions to manage diseases. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate how participatory climate information services assist coastal rice farmers to take up rice disease forecasts and better manage rice diseases by improving their informed decision-making. Through participatory approaches, we developed a tailor-made agrometeorological service through the DROP app to forecast rice diseases and manage them in advance. During farmers field schools (FFS) we communicated 7-day disease forecasts during face-to-face weekly meetings using printed paper and, messenger app derived from DROP app. Results show that the majority of the farmers understand disease forecasts through visualization, symbols, and text. The majority of them use disease forecast information directly from the DROP app followed by face-to-face meetings, messenger app, and printed paper. Farmers participation and engagement during capacity building training at FFS also assist them in making more informed decisions and improved management of diseases using both preventive measures and chemical measures throughout the rice cultivation period. We conclude that the development of participatory CIS and the associated capacity-building and training of farmers has increased farmers' understanding and uptake of disease forecasts to better manage of rice diseases. Participatory services such as the DROP app offer great potential as an adaptation option for climate-smart rice production under changing climatic conditions.

Keywords: participatory climate service, disease forecast, disease management, informed decision making, coastal Bangladesg

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1887 Jurisdictional Issues in E-Commerce Law after the 'Recast Brussels Regulation'

Authors: Seyedeh Sajedeh Salehi

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The Regulation No. 1215/2012/EC also known as the Brussels I Regulation (Recast) deals with jurisdictional disputes in civil and commercial matters. The main aim of the Recast (as in-line with its predecessor Regulation) is to bring a reform in procuring more simplified and faster circulation of civil and commercial judgments within the EU. Hence it is significant to take a closer look at the function of this regulatory tool. Therefore, the main objective of this paper is to analyze a clear understanding of the post-Recast situation on e-commerce relevant jurisdictional matters. The e-consumer protection and the choice-of-court agreements along with the position of the Court of Justice of the European Union in its decisions within the Recast Regulation will be also taken into consideration throughout this paper.

Keywords: choice-of-court agreements, consumer protection, e-commerce, jurisdiction, Recast Brussels I Regulation

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1886 Age Related Changes in the Neural Substrates of Emotion Regulation: Mechanisms, Consequences, and Interventions

Authors: Yasaman Mohammadi

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Emotion regulation is a complex process that allows individuals to manage and modulate their emotional responses in order to adaptively respond to environmental demands. As individuals age, emotion regulation abilities may decline, leading to an increased vulnerability to mood disorders and other negative health outcomes. Advances in neuroimaging techniques have greatly enhanced our understanding of the neural substrates underlying emotion regulation and age-related changes in these neural systems. Additionally, genetic research has identified several candidate genes that may influence age-related changes in emotion regulation. In this paper, we review recent findings from neuroimaging and genetic research on age-related changes in the neural substrates of emotion regulation, highlighting the mechanisms and consequences of these changes. We also discuss potential interventions, including cognitive and behavioral approaches, that may be effective in mitigating age-related declines in emotion regulation. We propose that a better understanding of the mechanisms underlying age-related changes in emotion regulation may lead to the development of more targeted interventions aimed at promoting healthy emotional functioning in older adults. Overall, this paper highlights the importance of studying age-related changes in emotion regulation and provides a roadmap for future research in this field.

Keywords: emotion regulation, aging, neural substrates, neuroimaging, emotional functioning, healthy aging

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1885 A Qualitative Exploration of How Brazilian Immigrant Mothers Living in the United States Obtain Information about Physical Activity and Screen-Viewing for Their Young Children

Authors: Ana Cristina Lindsay, Mary L. Greaney

Abstract:

Background: Racial/ethnic minority children of low-income immigrant families remain at increased risk of obesity. Consistent with high rates of childhood obesity among racial/ethnic minority children are high rates of physical inactivity and increased levels of sedentary behaviors (e.g., TV and other screen viewing). Brazilians comprise a fast-growing immigrant population group in the US, yet little research has focused on the health issues affecting Brazilian immigrant children. The purpose of this qualitative study was to explore how Brazilian-born immigrant mothers living in the United States obtain information about physical activity and screen-time for their young children. Methods: Qualitative research including focus groups with Brazilian immigrant mothers of preschool-age children living in the U.S. Results: Results revealed that Brazilian immigrant mothers obtain information on young children’s physical activity and screen-time from a variety of sources including interpersonal communication, television and magazines, government health care programs (WIC program) and professionals (e.g., nurses and pediatricians). A noteworthy finding is the significant role of foreign information sources (Brazilian TV shows and magazines) on mothers’ access to information about these early behaviors. Future research is needed to quantify and better understanding Brazilian parents’ access to accurate and sound information related to young children’s physical activity and screen-viewing behaviors. Conclusions: To our knowledge, no existing research has examined how Brazilian immigrant mothers living in the United States obtain information about these behaviors. This information is crucial for the design of culturally appropriate early childhood obesity prevention interventions tailored to the specific needs of this ethnic group.

Keywords: physical activity, scree-time, information, immigrant, mothers, Brazilian, United States

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1884 The Importance of Generating Electricity through Wind Farms in the Brazilian Electricity Matrix, from 2013 to 2020

Authors: Alex Sidarta Guglielmoni

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Since the 1970s, sustainable development has become increasingly present on the international agenda. The present work has as general objective to analyze, discuss and bring answers to the following question, what is the importance of the generation of electric energy through the wind power plants in the Brazilian electricity matrix between 2013 and 2019? To answer this question, we analyzed the generation of renewable energy from wind farms and the consumption of electricity in Brazil during the period of January 2013 until December 2020. The specific objectives of this research are: to analyze the public data, to identify the total wind generation, to identify the total wind capacity generation, to identify the percentage participation of the generation and generation capacity of wind energy in the Brazilian electricity matrix. In order to develop this research, it was necessary a bibliographic search, collection of secondary data, tabulation of generation data, and electricity capacity by a comparative analysis between wind power and the Brazilian electricity matrix. As a result, it was possible to observe how important Brazil is for global sustainable development and how much this country can grow with this, in view of its capacity and potential for generating wind power since this percentage has grown in past few years.

Keywords: wind power, Brazilian market, electricity matrix, generation capacity

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1883 The Effectiveness of the Workers' Constitutional Rights of Citizenship as One of the Embodiments of the Democratic and Social State of the Brazilian Law

Authors: Christine S. Veviani

Abstract:

By observing the Brazilian labor reality, considered as degrading and oppressive, as well as responsible for creating obstacles to rights, this paper is aimed at demonstrating the obligatoriness of complying with the Constitution, as an effective instrument of the Democratic and Social State of Law established in the country since 1988, which identifies and determines the recognition of a single type of citizenship, as representation of equality, social inclusion and human dignity. To achieve this purpose, that is, to awake to a new culture focused on human respect / fundamental rights engraved in the Brazilian Constitution, doctrinal works, case law and labor courts (how they work) will be used as methodology. Thus, by concluding that there is a need for a change in behavior, by employers, intended to respect the Constitution, especially with regard to the concept and citizenship content if an attempt is made to achieve as a result few steps effectiveness of fundamental social rights protective of the Brazilian working class. Thus, by analyzing the Brazilian labor reality, the result is the employers' denial of full and single citizenship of workers, whose effects are directly related to the violation of rights, which leads to the conclusion that there is a need for a change in the behavior regarding the respect for the Constitution, especially concerning the effectiveness of fundamental social rights, which protect the working class in Brazil.

Keywords: employment relationships, opposing citizenships, constitutionalism, capitalism

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1882 Practices of Lean Manufacturing in the Autoparts: Brazilian Industry Overview

Authors: Guilherme Gorgulho, Carlos Roberto Camello Lima

Abstract:

Over the past five years between 2011 and 2015, the license plate of cars, light commercial vehicles, trucks and buses have suffered retraction. This sector's decline can be explained by economic and national policy in the Brazilian industry operates. In parallel to the reduction of sales and license plate of vehicles, their suppliers are also affected influencing its results, among these vendors, there is the auto parts sector. The existence of international companies, and featured strongly in Asia and Mexico due to low production costs, encourage companies to constantly seek continuous improvement and operational efficiency. Under this argument, the decision making based on lean manufacturing tools it is essential for the management of operations. The purpose of this article is to analyze between lean practices in Brazilian auto parts industries, through the application of a questionnaire with employees who practice lean thinking in organizations. The purpose is to confront the extracted data in the questionnaires, and debate on which of lean tools help organizations as a competitive advantage.

Keywords: autoparts, brazilian industry, lean practices, survey

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