Search results for: population balance modeling

Authors: K. Thawichai, R. Pornthep

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This study examined the effects of ten basic exercises of Muay Thai Chaiya training for balance and strength in male older adults. Thirty male older adult volunteer from Thayang elderly clubs, Thayang, Petchaburi, Thailand. All participants were randomly assigned to two groups a training group and a control group. The training group (n=15) participated in eight week training program of ten basic exercises of Muay Thai Chaiya training and not to change or increase another exercise during of the study. In the control group, (n=15) did not participate in ten basic exercises of Muay Thai Chaiya training. Both groups were tested before and after eight weeks of the study period on balance in terms of single leg stance with eyes closed and strength in terms of the thirty second chair stand. The data of the study show that the participants of the training group perform significantly different higher scores in single leg stance with eyes closed and thirty second chair stand than the participants in the control group. The results of this study suggested that ten basic exercises of Muay Thai Chaiya training can use to improve balance and strength in male older adults.

Keywords: balance, strength, Muay Thai Chaiya, older adults

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Authors: Ayça Utkan Karasu, Elif Balevi Batur, Gülçin Kaymak Karataş

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The aim of this study was to examine the efficiency of virtual reality exercises with Nintendo Wii system on balance and independence in motor functions. This randomized controlled assessor-blinded study included 23 stroke inpatients with hemiparesis all within 12 months poststroke. Patients were randomly assigned to control group (n=11) or experimental group (n=12) via block randomization method. Control group participated in a conventional balance rehabilitation programme. Study group received a four-week balance training programme five times per week with a session duration of 20 minutes in addition to the conventional balance rehabilitation programme. Balance was assessed by the Berg’s balance scale, the functional reach test, the timed up and go test, the postural assessment scale for stroke, the static balance index. Also, displacement of centre of pressure sway and centre of pressure displacement during weight shifting was calculated by Emed-SX system. Independence in motor functions was assessed by The Functional Independence Measure (FIM) ambulation and FIM transfer subscales. The outcome measures were evaluated at baseline, 4th week (posttreatment), 8th week (follow-up). Repeated measures analysis of variance was performed for each of the outcome measure. Significant group time interaction was detected in the scores of the Berg’s balance scale, the functional reach test, eyes open anteroposterior and mediolateral center of pressure sway distance, eyes closed anteroposterior center of pressure sway distance, center of pressure displacement during weight shifting to effected side, unaffected side and total centre of pressure displacement during weight shifting (p < 0.05). Time effect was statistically significant in the scores of the Berg’s balance scale, the functional reach test, the timed up and go test, the postural assessment scale for stroke, the static balance index, eyes open anteroposterior and mediolateral center of pressure sway distance, eyes closed mediolateral center of pressure sway distance, the center of pressure displacement during weight shifting to effected side, the functional independence measure ambulation and transfer scores (p < 0.05). Virtual reality exercises with Nintendo Wii system combined with a conventional balance rehabilitation programme enhances balance performance and independence in motor functions in stroke patients.

Keywords: balance, hemiplegia, stroke rehabilitation, virtual reality

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Authors: Laura Álvarez Antón, Joaquín Díaz

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The construction industry is turning towards sustainability. It is a well-known fact that sustainability is based on a balance between environmental, social and economic aspects. In order to achieve sustainability efficiently, these three criteria should be taken into account in the initial project phases, since that is when a project can be influenced most effectively. Thus the aim must be to integrate important tools like BIM and LCA at an early stage in order to make full use of their potential. With the synergies resulting from the integration of BIM and LCA, a wider approach to sustainability becomes possible, covering the three pillars of sustainability.

Keywords: building information modeling (BIM), construction industry, design phase, life cycle assessment (LCA), sustainability

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Authors: Nurullah Buker, Ezgi Karagoz, Yesim Salik Sengul, Sevay Alsen Guney, Gokhan Yoyler, Aylin Ozbek

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Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) is one of the most common neurodevelopmental disorders with heterogeneous clinical features such as inattention, hyperactivity, and impulsivity. Many different types of exercise interventions were employed for children with ADHD. However, previous studies have usually examined the effects of non-specific exercise programs or short-term effects of exercise. The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of the Neurocognitive Exercise Program (NEP), which is a structured exercise program derived from Life Kinetik, and a relatively new for children with ADHD, on symptoms, attention, and dynamic balance in medication-naïve children with ADHD. Fourteen medication-naive children (7-12 years) with ADHD were included in the intervention group. NEP was performed once a week for ten weeks. The intervention group also performed a structured home exercise program for another six days, for ten weeks. The children in the intervention group were assessed at baseline, in the third month, in the sixth month, and in the twelfth month regarding ADHD-related symptoms, attention, and dynamic balance. Fifteen age-matched typically developing children were assessed once for establishing normative values. Hyperactivity-Impulsivity score and dynamic balance were found to improve after NEP in the ADHD group in the 3rd month (p<0.05). In addition, these results were similar for both groups after NEP and at the end of the 12th month (p>0.05). The NEP may provide beneficial effects on hyperactivity-impulsivity, oppositional defiant, and dynamic balance in children with ADHD, and the improvements may be maintained in the long term.

Keywords: ADHD, attention problems, dynamic balance, neurocognitive exercise

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Authors: Talha Ahmed, Ishtiaq Hassan

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Urban areas or metropolitan is portrayed by the very high density of population due to the result of these economic activities. Some critical elements, such as urban expansion and climate change, are driving changes in cities with exposure to the incidence and impacts of pluvial floods. Urban communities are recurrently developed by huge spaces by which water cannot enter impermeable surfaces, such as man-made permanent surfaces and structures, which do not cause the phenomena of infiltration and percolation. Urban sprawl can result in increased run-off volumes, flood stage and flood extents during heavy rainy seasons. The flood risks require a thorough examination of all aspects affecting to severe an event in order to accurately estimate their impacts and other risk factors associated with them. For risk evaluation and its impact due to urbanization, an integrated hydrological modeling approach is used on the study area in Islamabad (Pakistan), focusing on a natural water body that has been adopted in this research. The vulnerability of the physical elements at risk in the research region is analyzed using GIS and SOBEK. The supervised classification of land use containing the images from 1980 to 2020 is used. The modeling of DEM with selected return period is used for modeling a hydrodynamic model for flood event inundation. The selected return periods are 50,75 and 100 years which are used in flood modeling. The findings of this study provided useful information on high-risk places and at-risk properties.

Keywords: urbanization, flood, flood risk, GIS

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Authors: Jie Ji, Jing Xu, Yuehong Zhuang, Xiangqing Kang, Ying Qian, Ping Zhou, Di Xue

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Background: In 2014, there were 28,341 health professionals in Pudong new area of Shanghai and the number per 1000 population was 5.199, 55.55% higher than that in 2006. But it was always less than the average number of health professionals per 1000 population in Shanghai from 2006 to 2014. Therefore, allocation planning for the health professionals in Pudong new area has become a high priority task in order to meet the future demands of health care. In this study, we constructed an objective-based system dynamics model to forecast the number of health professionals in Pudong new area of Shanghai in 2020. Methods: We collected the data from health statistics reports and previous survey of human resources in Pudong new area of Shanghai. Nine experts, who were from health administrative departments, public hospitals and community health service centers, were consulted to estimate the current and future status of nine variables used in the system dynamics model. Based on the objective of the number of health professionals per 1000 population (8.0) in Shanghai for 2020, the system dynamics model for health professionals in Pudong new area of Shanghai was constructed to forecast the number of health professionals needed in Pudong new area in 2020. Results: The system dynamics model for health professionals in Pudong new area of Shanghai was constructed. The model forecasted that there will be 37,330 health professionals (6.433 per 1000 population) in 2020. If the success rate of health professional recruitment changed from 20% to 70%, the number of health professionals per 1000 population would be changed from 5.269 to 6.919. If this rate changed from 20% to 70% and the success rate of building new beds changed from 5% to 30% at the same time, the number of health professionals per 1000 population would be changed from 5.269 to 6.923. Conclusions: The system dynamics model could be used to simulate and forecast the health professionals. But, if there were no significant changes in health policies and management system, the number of health professionals per 1000 population would not reach the objectives in Pudong new area in 2020.

Keywords: allocation planning, forecast, health professional, system dynamics

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Authors: Deepak Jugran

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The last century has witnessed rapid scientific growth, and social policies mainly targeted to increase the “life expectancy” of the people. As a result of these developments, the aging as well as ailing population, is increasing by every day. Despite an increase in “life expectancy”, we have not recorded compression in morbidity numbers as the age of onset of the majority of health issues has not increased substantially. In recent years, the prevalence of chronic diseases along with the improved treatment has also resulted in the increase of people living with chronic diseases. The last decade has also focused on social policies to increase the life expectancy in the population; however, in recent decades, social policies and biomedical research are gradually shifting on the potential of increasing healthy life or healthspan. In this article, we review the existing framework of lifespan and healthspan and wish to ignite a discussion among social scientists and public health experts to propose a wholistic framework to balance the trade-offs on social policies for “lifespan” and “healthspan”.

Keywords: lifespan, healthspan, chronic diseases, social policies

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Authors: Hasan Ziari, Hassan Fazaeli, Seyed Javad Vaziri Kang Olyaei, Asma Sadat Dabiri

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The presence of cracks in concrete pavements is a place for the ingression of corrosive substances, acids, oils, and water into the pavement and reduces its long-term durability and level of service. One of the causes of early cracks in concrete pavements is the plastic shrinkage. This shrinkage occurs due to the formation of negative capillary pressures after the equilibrium of the bleeding and evaporation rates at the pavement surface. These cracks form if the tensile stresses caused by the restrained shrinkage exceed the tensile strength of the concrete. Different climate conditions change the rate of evaporation and thus change the balance time of the bleeding and evaporation, which changes the severity of cracking in concrete. The present study examined the relationship between the balance time of bleeding and evaporation and the area of cracking in the concrete slabs using the standard method ASTM C1579 in 27 different environmental conditions by using continuous video recording and digital image analyzing. The results showed that as the evaporation rate increased and the balance time decreased, the crack severity significantly increased so that by reducing the balance time from the maximum value to its minimum value, the cracking area increased more than four times. It was also observed that the cracking area- balance time curve could be interpreted in three sections. An examination of these three parts showed that the combination of climate conditions has a significant effect on increasing or decreasing these two variables. The criticality of a single factor cannot cause the critical conditions of plastic cracking. By combining two mild environmental factors with a severe climate factor (in terms of surface evaporation rate), a considerable reduction in balance time and a sharp increase in cracking severity can be prevented. The results of this study showed that balance time could be an essential factor in controlling and predicting plastic shrinkage cracking in concrete pavements. It is necessary to control this factor in the case of constructing concrete pavements in different climate conditions.

Keywords: bleeding and cracking severity, concrete pavements, climate conditions, plastic shrinkage

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Authors: I. D. Arroyo

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This article seeks to integrate different concepts from contemporary software engineering with an agile development approach. We seek to clarify some definitions and uses, we make a difference between the Systems Development Life Cycle (SDLC) and the methodologies, we differentiate the types of frameworks such as methodological, philosophical and behavioral, standards and documentation. We define relationships based on the documentation of the development process through formal and ad hoc models, and we define the usefulness of using DevOps and Agile Modeling as integrative methodologies of principles and best practices.

Keywords: methodologies, modeling languages, agile modeling, UML

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Authors: Xian Li, Qing-Guo Wang, Jiangshuai Huang, Jidong Liu, Ming Yu, Tan Kok Poh

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In power industry, accurate electricity demand forecasting for a certain leading time is important for system operation and control, etc. In this paper, we investigate the modeling and forecasting of Singapore’s electricity demand. Several standard models, such as HWT exponential smoothing model, the ARMA model and the ANNs model have been proposed based on historical demand data. We applied them to Singapore electricity market and proposed three refinements based on simulation to improve the modeling accuracy. Compared with existing models, our refined model can produce better forecasting accuracy. It is demonstrated in the simulation that by adding forecasting error into the forecasting equation, the modeling accuracy could be improved greatly.

Keywords: power industry, electricity demand, modeling, forecasting

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Authors: Canan Gunay Yazici, Zubeyir Sarı, Devrim Tarakci

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Background: Hippotherapy considered as global techniques used in rehabilitation of children with cerebral palsy as it improved gait pattern, balance, postural control, balance and gross motor skills development but it encounters some problems (such as the excess of the cost of horses' care, nutrition, housing). Hippotherapy simulator is being developed in recent years to overcome these problems. These devices aim to create the effects of hippotherapy made with a real horse on patients by simulating the movements of a real horse. Objectives: To evaluate the efficacy of hippotherapy simulator on gross motor functions, sitting postural control and dynamic balance of children with cerebral palsy (CP). Methods: Fourteen children with CP, aged 6–15 years, seven with a diagnosis of spastic hemiplegia, five of diplegia, two of triplegia, Gross Motor Function Classification System level I-III. The Horse Riding Simulator (HRS), including four-speed program (warm-up, level 1-2-3), was used for hippotherapy simulator. Firstly, each child received Neurodevelopmental Therapy (NDT; 45min twice weekly eight weeks). Subsequently, the same children completed HRS+NDT (30min and 15min respectively, twice weekly eight weeks). Children were assessed pre-treatment, at the end of 8th and 16th week. Gross motor function, sitting postural control, dynamic sitting and standing balance were evaluated by Gross Motor Function Measure-88 (GMFM-88, Dimension B, D, E and Total Score), Trunk Impairment Scale (TIS), Pedalo® Sensamove Balance Test and Pediatric Balance Scale (PBS) respectively. Unit of Scientific Research Project of Marmara University supported our study. Results: All measured variables were a significant increase compared to baseline values after both intervention (NDT and HRS+NDT), except for dynamic sitting balance evaluated by Pedalo®. Especially HRS+NDT, increase in the measured variables was considerably higher than NDT. After NDT, the Total scores of GMFM-88 (mean baseline 62,2 ± 23,5; mean NDT: 66,6 ± 22,2; p < 0,05), TIS (10,4 ± 3,4; 12,1 ± 3; p < 0,05), PBS (37,4 ± 14,6; 39,6 ± 12,9; p < 0,05), Pedalo® sitting (91,2 ± 6,7; 92,3 ± 5,2; p > 0,05) and Pedalo® standing balance points (80,2 ± 10,8; 82,5 ± 11,5; p < 0,05) increased by 7,1%, 2%, 3,9%, 5,2% and 6 % respectively. After HRS+NDT treatment, the total scores of GMFM-88 (mean baseline: 62,2 ± 23,5; mean HRS+NDT: 71,6 ± 21,4; p < 0,05), TIS (10,4 ± 3,4; 15,6 ± 2,9; p < 0,05), PBS (37,4 ± 14,6; 42,5 ± 12; p < 0,05), Pedalo® sitting (91,2 ± 6,7; 93,8 ± 3,7; p > 0,05) and standing balance points (80,2 ± 10,8; 86,2 ± 5,6; p < 0,05) increased by 15,2%, 6%, 7,3%, 6,4%, and 11,9%, respectively, compared to the initial values. Conclusion: Neurodevelopmental therapy provided significant improvements in gross motor functions, sitting postural control, sitting and standing balance of children with CP. When the hippotherapy simulator added to the treatment program, it was observed that these functions were further developed (especially with gross motor functions and dynamic balance). As a result, this pilot study showed that the hippotherapy simulator could be a useful alternative to neurodevelopmental therapy for the improvement of gross motor function, sitting postural control and dynamic balance of children with CP.

Keywords: balance, cerebral palsy, hippotherapy, rehabilitation

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Authors: Meng-Fei Cheng, Wei-Lun Chen, Han-Chang Ma, Chi-Che Tsai

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Recent K–12 Taiwan Science Education Curriculum Guideline emphasize the essential role of modeling curriculum in science learning; however, few modeling curricula have been designed and adopted in current science teaching. Therefore, this study aims to develop modeling curriculum on electric circuits to investigate any learning difficulties students have with modeling curriculum and further enhance modeling teaching. This study was conducted with 44 10th-grade students in Central Taiwan. Data collection included a students’ understanding of models in science (SUMS) survey that explored the students' epistemology of scientific models and modeling and a complex circuit problem to investigate the students’ modeling abilities. Data analysis included the following: (1) Paired sample t-tests were used to examine the improvement of students’ modeling abilities and conceptual understanding before and after the curriculum was taught. (2) Paired sample t-tests were also utilized to determine the students’ modeling abilities before and after the modeling activities, and a Pearson correlation was used to understand the relationship between students’ modeling abilities during the activities and on the posttest. (3) ANOVA analysis was used during different stages of the modeling curriculum to investigate the differences between the students’ who developed microscopic models and macroscopic models after the modeling curriculum was taught. (4) Independent sample t-tests were employed to determine whether the students who changed their models had significantly different understandings of scientific models than the students who did not change their models. The results revealed the following: (1) After the modeling curriculum was taught, the students had made significant progress in both their understanding of the science concept and their modeling abilities. In terms of science concepts, this modeling curriculum helped the students overcome the misconception that electric currents reduce after flowing through light bulbs. In terms of modeling abilities, this modeling curriculum helped students employ macroscopic or microscopic models to explain their observed phenomena. (2) Encouraging the students to explain scientific phenomena in different context prompts during the modeling process allowed them to convert their models to microscopic models, but it did not help them continuously employ microscopic models throughout the whole curriculum. The students finally consistently employed microscopic models when they had help visualizing the microscopic models. (3) During the modeling process, the students who revised their own models better understood that models can be changed than the students who did not revise their own models. Also, the students who revised their models to explain different scientific phenomena tended to regard models as explanatory tools. In short, this study explored different strategies to facilitate students’ modeling processes as well as their difficulties with the modeling process. The findings can be used to design and teach modeling curricula and help students enhance their modeling abilities.

Keywords: electric circuits, modeling curriculum, science learning, scientific model

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Authors: M. Abdallah

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Urban development requires deep excavations near buildings and other structures. Deep excavation has become more a necessity for better utilization of space as the population of the world has dramatically increased. In Lebanon, some urban areas are very crowded and lack spaces for new buildings and underground projects, which makes the usage of underground space indispensable. In this paper, a numerical modeling is performed using the finite element method to study the deep excavation-diaphragm wall soil-structure interaction in the case of nonlinear soil behavior. The study is focused on a comparison of the results obtained using different support systems. Furthermore, a parametric study is performed according to the remoteness of the structure.

Keywords: deep excavation, ground anchors, interaction soil-structure, struts

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Authors: Alireza Dantism

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Presently, describing the function of a protein sequence is one of the most common problems in biology. Usually, this problem can be facilitated by studying the three-dimensional structure of proteins. In the absence of a protein structure, comparative modeling often provides a useful three-dimensional model of the protein that is dependent on at least one known protein structure. Comparative modeling predicts the three-dimensional structure of a given protein sequence (target) mainly based on its alignment with one or more proteins of known structure (templates). Comparative modeling consists of four main steps 1. Similarity between the target sequence and at least one known template structure 2. Alignment of target sequence and template(s) 3. Build a model based on alignment with the selected template(s). 4. Prediction of model errors 5. Optimization of the built model There are many computer programs and web servers that automate the comparative modeling process. One of the most important advantages of these servers is that it makes comparative modeling available to both experts and non-experts, and they can easily do their own modeling without the need for programming knowledge, but some other experts prefer using programming knowledge and do their modeling manually because by doing this they can maximize the accuracy of their modeling. In this study, a web-based tool has been designed to predict the tertiary structure of proteins using PHP and Python programming languages. This tool is called EasyModel. EasyModel can receive, according to the user's inputs, the desired unknown sequence (which we know as the target) in this study, the protein sequence file (template), etc., which also has a percentage of similarity with the primary sequence, and its third structure Predict the unknown sequence and present the results in the form of graphs and constructed protein files.

Keywords: structural bioinformatics, protein tertiary structure prediction, modeling, comparative modeling, modeller

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Authors: S. H. R. Sadeghi, A. Sadoddin, A. Najafinejad

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Expansionism and ever-increasing population menace all different resources worldwide. The issue, hence, is critical in developing countries like Iran where new technologies are rapidly luxuriated and unguardedly applied, resulting in unexpected outcomes. However, uncommon and comprehensive approaches are introduced to take all the different aspects involved into consideration. In the last decade, few approaches such as community-based, stakeholders-oriented, adaptive and ultimately integrated management, have emerged and are developing for efficient, Co-management or best management, economic and sustainable development and management of watershed resources in Iran. In the present paper, an attempt has been made to focus on state-of-the-art approaches for the management of watershed resources applied in Iran. The study has been then supported by reports of some case studies conducted throughout the country involving previously mentioned approaches. Scrutinizing results of the researches verified a progressive tendency of the managerial approaches in watershed management strategies leading to a general approaching balance situation. The approaches are firmly rooted in educational, research, executive, legal and policy-making sectors leading to some recuperation at different levels. However, there is a long way ahead to naturalize detrimental effects of unscientific, illegal and over exploitation of the watershed resources in Iran.

Keywords: comprehensive management, ecosystem balance, integrated watershed management, land resources optimization

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Authors: Jihye Jeon

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This paper analyzes the conceptual framework of three statistical methods, multiple regression, path analysis, and structural equation models. When establishing research model of the statistical modeling of complex social phenomenon, it is important to know the strengths and limitations of three statistical models. This study explored the character, strength, and limitation of each modeling and suggested some strategies for accurate explaining or predicting the causal relationships among variables. Especially, on the studying of depression or mental health, the common mistakes of research modeling were discussed.

Keywords: multiple regression, path analysis, structural equation models, statistical modeling, social and psychological phenomenon

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Authors: Elena Listo Ubeda, Miguel Marchamalo Sacristan

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The demand for water doubles every twenty years, at a rate which is twice as fast as the world´s population growth. Despite it´s great importance, water is one of the most degraded natural resources in the world, mainly because of the reduction of natural vegetation coverage, population growth, contamination and changes in the soil use which reduces its capacity to collect water. This situation is especially serious in Central America, as reflected in the Human Development reports. The objective of this project is to assist in the improvement of water production and quality in Central America. In order to do these two watersheds in Costa Rica were selected as experiments: that of the Virilla-Durazno River, located in the extreme north east of the central valley which has an Atlantic influence; and that of the Jabillo River, which flows directly into the Pacific. The Virilla river watershed is located over andisols, and that of the Jabillo River is over alfisols, and both are of great importance for water supply to the Greater Metropolitan Area and the future tourist resorts respectively, as well as for the production of agriculture, livestock and hydroelectricity. The hydrological reaction in different soil-cover complexes, varying from the secondary forest to natural vegetation and degraded pasture, was analyzed according to the evaluation of the properties of the soil, infiltration, soil compaction, as well as the effects of the soil cover complex on erosion, calculated by the C factor of the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE). A water balance was defined for each watershed, in which the volume of water that enters and leaves were estimated, as well as the evapotranspiration, runoff, and infiltration. Two future scenarios, representing the implementation of reforestation and deforestation plans, were proposed, and were analyzed for the effects of the soil cover complex on the water balance in each case. The results obtained show an increase of the ground water recharge in the humid forest areas, and an extension of the study of the dry areas is proposed since the ground water recharge here is diminishing. These results are of great significance for the planning, design of Payment Schemes for Environmental Services and the improvement of the existing water supply systems. In Central America spatial planning is a priority, as are the watersheds, in order to assess the water resource socially and economically, and securing its availability for the future.

Keywords: Costa Rica, infiltration, soil, water

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Authors: Marsudi, Noor Hidayat, Ratno Bagus Edy Wibowo

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This paper considers a deterministic model for the transmission dynamics of HIV/AIDS in which condom campaign and treatment are both important for the disease management. In modelling of the spread of AIDS, the population is divided into six subpopulations, namely susceptible population, susceptible population who change their behavior due to education condom campaign, infected population, pre-AIDS population, treated population and full-blown AIDS population. We calculate the effective reproduction number using the next generation matrix method and investigate the existence and stability of the equilibrium points. A sensitivity analysis discovers parameters that have a high impact on effective reproduction number and should be targeted by intervention strategies. Numerical simulations are given to illustrate and verify our analytic results.

Keywords: HIV/AIDS, condom campaign, antiretroviral treatment, effective reproduction number, stability and sensitivity analysis

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Authors: Ivan Struhár, Martin Sebera, Lenka Dovrtělová

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The aim of this study was to find out if the special type of exercise with elastic cord can improve the level of postural stability. The exercise programme was conducted twice a week for 3 months. The participants were randomly divided into an experimental group and a control group. The electronic balance board was used for testing of postural stability. All participants trained for 18 hours at the time of experiment without any special form of coordination programme. The experimental group performed 90 minutes plus of coordination exercise. The result showed that differences between pre-test and post-test occurred in the experimental group. It was used the nonparametric Wilcoxon t-test for paired samples (p=0.012; the significance level 95%). We calculated effect size by Cohen´s d. In the experimental group d is 1.96 which indicates a large effect. In the control group d is 0.04 which confirms no significant improvement.

Keywords: balance board, balance training, coordination, stability

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Authors: Venkatesh Pulletikurthi, Karthik B. Ariyur, Luciano Castillo

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The system identification from the turbulence wakes will lead to the tactical advantage to prepare and also, to predict the trajectory of the opponents’ movements. A low-order modeling technique, POD, is used to predict the object based on the wake pattern and compared with pre-trained image recognition neural network (NN) to classify the wake patterns into objects. It is demonstrated that low-order modeling, POD, is able to predict the objects better compared to pretrained NN by ~30%.

Keywords: the bluff body wakes, low-order modeling, neural network, system identification

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Authors: Ahmet Parlak, Celalettin Bilgen

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In order to create an effective early warning system, Identification of the risks, preparation and carrying out risk modeling of risk scenarios, taking into account the shortcomings of the old disaster scenarios should be used to improve the system. In the light of this, the importance of risk modeling in creating an effective early warning system is understood. In the scope of TAFRISK project risk modeling trend analysis report on risk modeling developed and a demonstration was conducted for Risk Modeling for flood and mass movements. For risk modeling R&D, studies have been conducted to determine the information, and source of the information, to be gathered, to develop algorithms and to adapt the current algorithms to Turkey’s conditions for determining the risk score in the high disaster risk areas. For each type of the disaster; Disaster Deficit Index (DDI), Local Disaster Index (LDI), Prevalent Vulnerability Index (PVI), Risk Management Index (RMI) have been developed as disaster indices taking danger, sensitivity, fragility, and vulnerability, the physical and economic damage into account in the appropriate scale of the respective type.

Keywords: disaster, hazard, risk modeling, sensor

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Authors: Wei-Po Wu, Wen-Yu Liu, Wei−Ting Lin, Hen-Yu Lien

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Introduction: Improving balance function for individuals after stroke is a crucial target in physiotherapy. Aquatic therapy which challenges individual’s postural control in an unstable fluid environment may be beneficial in enhancing balance functions. The purposes of the systematic review with meta-analyses were to validate the effects of aquatic therapy in improving balance functions for individuals with strokes in contrast to conventional physiotherapy. Method: Available studies were explored from three electronic databases: PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science. During literature search, the published date of studies was not limited. The study design of the included studies should be randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and the studies should contain at least one outcome measurement of balance function. The PEDro scale was adopted to assess the quality of included studies, while the 'Oxford Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine 2011 Levels of Evidence' was used to evaluate the level of evidence. After the data extraction, studies with same outcome measures were pooled together for meta-analysis. Result: Ten studies with 282 participants were included in analyses. The research qualities of the studies were ranged from fair to good (4 to 8 points). Levels of evidence of the included studies were graded as level 2 and 3. Finally, scores of Berg Balance Scale (BBS), Eye closed force plate center of pressure velocity (anterior-posterior, medial-lateral axis) and Timed up and Go test were pooled and analyzed separately. The pooled results shown improvement in balance function (BBS mean difference (MD): 1.39 points; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.05-2.29; p=0.002) (Eye closed force plate center of pressure velocity (anterior-posterior axis) MD: 1.39 mm/s; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.93-1.86; p<0.001) (Eye closed force plate center of pressure velocity (medial-lateral) MD: 1.48 mm/s; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.15-2.82; p=0.03) and mobility (MD: 0.9 seconds; 95% CI: 0.07-1.73; p=0.03) of stroke individuals after aquatic therapy compared to conventional therapy. Although there were significant differences between two treatment groups, the differences in improvement were relatively small. Conclusion: The aquatic therapy improved general balance function and mobility in the individuals with stroke better than conventional physiotherapy.

Keywords: aquatic therapy, balance function, meta-analysis, stroke, systematic review

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Authors: Doaa H. I. Mahmoud, El-Said M. Elsharkawy, Saad Z. Soliman, Soher E. Mustfa

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The opening of new promising foreign markets is one of the objectives of Egypt’s foreign trade policies, especially for agricultural exports. This study aims at the examination of the commodity structure of the Egyptian agricultural imports and exports with the COMESA countries. In addition, estimation of the surplus/deficit of the Egyptian commodities and agricultural balance with these countries is made. Time series data covering the period 2004-2016 is used. Estimation of the growth function along with the derivation of the annual growth rates of the study’s variables is made. Some of the results of the study period display the following: (1) The average total Egyptian exports to the COMESA (Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa) countries is estimated at 1,491 million dollars, with an annual growth rate of 14.4% (214.7 million dollars). (2) The average annual Egyptian agricultural exports to these economies is estimated at 555 million dollars, with an annual growth rate of 19.4% (107.7 million dollars). (3) The average annual value of agricultural imports from the COMESA countries is set at 289 Million Dollars, with an annual growth rate of 14.4% (41.6 million dollars). (4) The study shows that there is a continuous surplus in the agricultural balance with these economies, whilst having a deficit in the raw-materials agricultural balance, as well as the balance of input requirements with these countries.

Keywords: COMESA, Egypt, growth rates, trade balance

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Authors: C. Patrascioiu

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The paper describes the modeling and simulation of the heat pumps domain processes. The main objective of the study is the use of the heat pump in propene–propane distillation processes. The modeling and simulation instrument is the Unisim^® Design simulator. The paper is structured in three parts: An overview of the compressing gases, the modeling and simulation of the freezing systems, and the modeling and simulation of the heat pumps. For each of these systems, there are presented the Unisim^® Design simulation diagrams, the input–output system structure and the numerical results. Future studies will consider modeling and simulation of the propene–propane distillation process with heat pump.

Keywords: distillation, heat pump, simulation, unisim design

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Authors: Nadine Yehya, Chantal Maatouk

Abstract:

Low energy buildings have been developed to achieve global climate commitments in reducing energy consumption. They comprise energy efficient buildings, zero energy buildings, positive buildings and passive house buildings. The reduced energy demands in Low Energy buildings call for advanced building energy modeling that focuses on studying active building systems such as heating, cooling and ventilation, improvement of systems performances, and development of control systems. Modeling and building simulation have expanded to cover different modeling approach i.e.: detailed physical model, dynamic empirical models, and hybrid approaches, which are adopted by various simulation tools. This paper uses DesignBuilder with EnergyPlus simulation engine in order to; First, study the impact of efficiency measures on building energy behavior by comparing Low energy residential model to a conventional one in Beirut-Lebanon. Second, choose the appropriate energy systems for the studied case characterized by an important cooling demand. Third, study dynamic modeling of Variable Refrigerant Flow (VRF) system in EnergyPlus that is chosen due to its advantages over other systems and its availability in the Lebanese market. Finally, simulation of different energy systems models with different modeling approaches is necessary to confront the different modeling approaches and to investigate the interaction between energy systems and building envelope that affects the total energy consumption of Low Energy buildings.

Keywords: physical model, variable refrigerant flow heat pump, dynamic modeling, EnergyPlus, the modeling approach

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Authors: Duško Salemović, Aleksandar Dedić, Matilda Lazić, Dragan Halas

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The aim of the paper was the thermal balance control of vertical kiln dryer indirect type (VSU-36) for drying sunflower seed, produced by "Cer" - Čačak, capacity 39 [t/h]. The balance control was executed because the dryer damaged by NATO bombing in 1999, and it was planned its reconstruction. The structural and geometric characteristics of the dryer were known, and it was necessary to determine the parameters of: wet air as a drying agent and the sunflower seeds. The thermal balance control was the basis for replacement of damaged parts of dryer during its reconstruction. After that, it was necessary to perform the subsequent calculation of strength. Therefore, since its accuracy was largely dependent on cost-effectiveness and safety of a single drying chamber. Also, the work provides guidelines for the regimes of drying of grain crops with the explanation of specificity of drying sunflowers.

Keywords: sunflower seeds, regimes of drying, vertical kiln dryer, thermal analysis

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Authors: Bijad Alqahtani, Graham Arnold, Weijie Wang

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Background—Tai Chi Chuan (TCC) is a type of traditional Chinese martial art and is considered a benefiting physical fitness. Advanced techniques of motion analysis have been routinely used in the clinical assessment. However, so far, little research has been done on the biomechanical assessment of TCC players in terms of gait and balance using motion analysis. Objectives—The aim of this study was to investigate whether TCC improves the lower limb conditions and balance ability using the state of the art motion analysis technologies, i.e. motion capture system, electromyography and force platform. Methods—Twenty TCC (9 male, 11 female) with age between (42-77) years old and weight (56.2-119 Kg), and eighteen Non-TCC participants (7 male, 11 female), weight (50-110 Kg) with age (43- 78) years old at the matched age as a control group were recruited in this study. Their gait and balance were collected using Vicon Nexus® to obtain the gait parameters, and kinematic parameters of hip, knee, and ankle joints in three planes of both limbs. Participants stood on force platforms to perform a single leg balance test. Then, they were asked to walk along a 10 m walkway at their comfortable speed. Participants performed 5 trials of single-leg balance for the dominant side. Also, the participants performed 3 trials of four square step balance and 10 trials of walking. From the recorded trials, three good ones were analyzed using the Vicon Plug-in-Gait model to obtain gait parameters, e.g. walking speed, cadence, stride length, and joint parameters, e.g. joint angle, force, moments, etc. Result— The temporal-spatial variables of TCC subjects were compared with the Non-TCC subjects, it was found that there was a significant difference (p < 0.05) between the groups. Moreover, it was observed that participants of TCC have significant differences in ankle, hip, and knee joints’ kinematics in the sagittal, coronal, and transverse planes such as ankle angle (19.90±19.54 deg) for TCC while (15.34±6.50 deg) for Non-TCC, and knee angle (14.96±6.40 deg) for TCC while (17.63±5.79 deg) for Non-TCC in the transverse plane. Also, the result showed that there was a significant difference between groups in the single-leg balance test, e.g. maintaining single leg stance time in the TCC participants showed longer duration (20.85±10.53 s) in compared to Non-TCC people group (13.39±8.78 s). While the result showed that there was no significant difference between groups in the four square step balance. Conclusion—Our result showed that there are significant differences between Tai Chi Chuan and Non-Tai Chi Chuan participants in the various aspects of gait analysis and balance test, as a consequence of these findings some of biomechanical parameters such as joints kinematics, gait parameters and single leg stance balance test, the Tai Chi Chuan could improve the lower limb conditions and could reduce a risk of fall for the elderly with ageing.

Keywords: gait analysis, kinematics, single leg stance, Tai Chi Chuan

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Authors: Dina Muharib

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Specific metabolic challenges are present following spinal cord injury. The acute stage is characterized by a reduction in metabolic activity, as well as a negative nitrogen balance that cannot be corrected, even with aggressive nutritional support. Metabolic demands need to be accurately monitored to avoid overfeeding. Enteral feeding is the optimal route following SCI. When oral feeding is not possible, nasogastric, followed by nasojejunal, then by percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy, if necessary, is suggested.

Keywords: SCI, energy, protein, nutrition assessment, eneral feeding, nitrogen balance

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Authors: Siriniya Siribrahmanakul

Abstract:

Introduction:SARsCOVID-19 is rapidly spreading, and some people may exhibit severe symptoms. Mortality rate of 2.0–3.0% with COVID-19 infection atworldwide. Human leukocyte antigen (HLA), located on chromosome 6, consist of HLA class I and class II. HLA are used by the immune system to attach self-antigens. Previous studies, HLA-DRB1*01:01,HLA-DRB1*12:01and HLA-DRB1*14:04 were, showed significant difference with severe COVID-19 in the Chinese population by p-value < 0.05. Objective: We investigated the prevalence of HLA-DRB1 alleles associated with severe COVID-19 in Thai population. Materials and Methods:200 DNA samples were isolated from EDTA blood using the MagNAprue Compact Nucleic Acid Isolation kits.HLA-DRB1alleles were genotyped using sequence-specific oligonucleotides (PCR-SSOs). Results:The frequency of HLA-DRB1 alleles in Thai population wereHLA-DRB1*12:02 (15.75%), HLA-DRB1*15:02 (14.50%), HLA-DRB1*09:01 (11.50%), HLA-DRB1*07:01 (9.50%), HLA-DRB1*03:01,HLA-DRB1*05:01 (5.75%), HLA-DRB1*14:01 (5.50%), HLA-DRB1*16:02 (4.50%), HLA-DRB1*04:05 (4.00%), HLA-DRB1*14:03 (3.25%), HLA-DRB1*10:01 (2.25%) and HLA-DRB1*13:02 (2.00%). Particularly, HLA-DRB1*12:02 allele was the highest allele frequency presented in the four regions groups of Thai population. Furthermore, the HLA-DRB1* alleles associated with severe COVID-19, which consists ofHLA-DRB1*14:04(2.00 %) and HLA-DRB1*12:01(0.50%) in Thai population, whereas HLA-DRB1*01:01 allele was not found in this population. HLA-DRB1*14:04 and HLA-DRB1*12:01alleles were similarly distributed in four regions populations in Thailand (p-value > 0.05). The alleles frequencies of HLA-DRB1*14:04 and HLA-DRB1*12:01, which associated with severe COVID-19, had no significant differences between Thai population, South China population, South Africa population, and South Koreapopulation (p-value > 0.05). Conclusions: Particularly, this study has focused on allele frequency of HLA-DRB1*14:04in a healthy Thai population to evaluating their impact on the severe COVID-19. Furthermore, our research needs to be done in larger numbers of Thai patients.

Keywords: HLA-DRB1, allele frequency, Thai population, COVID-19 marker

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Authors: Evelyn Nwamaka Ogbeide-Osaretin, Bright Orhewere

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This study examined the role of the population in the linkage between energy consumption and economic development in Nigeria. Time series data on energy consumption, population, and economic development were used for the period 1995 to 2020. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag -Error Correction Model (ARDL-ECM) was engaged. Economic development had a negative substantial impact on energy consumption in the long run. Population growth had a positive significant effect on energy consumption. Government expenditure was also found to impact the level of energy consumption, while energy consumption is not a function of oil price in Nigeria.

Keywords: dynamic analysis, energy consumption, population, economic development, Nigeria

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